Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Macalaure]

It just occurred to me that Sally might have just been confused when she voted Boro on Day1 and he might still be a wolf...

Too little time to consider that now, and the votes are going elsewhere anyway:

++Lalwende

[Nogrod]

So Fëa needs to be checked later then... but if I'm not here toMorrow remember to check her sudden appearance toDay... and McCaber's vote, and Nilp check Nerwen...

++ Lalwendë

No reason to try others...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If you don't want to go with my feelings on McCaber today so be it. But get the cobbler out of the way, and I'm asking you trust my instinct that it's Lal.

If I'm wrong, I'll vow one day of silence.

I'll trust you for now but maybe I am following like a sheep whose wool has been pulled over its eyes...

[Durelin]

Deadline.

Lalwendë has been lynched. She was the Cobbler!

[Durelin]

Night 5 has ended.

Nilpaurion Felagund has been killed. He was the Seer!

Day 5 begins!


~The Dead~

Leonard Nimoy (Half-Vulcan) ~ illogically murdered by the wolves
CaptainofDespair (Wererat) ~ Crushed on Day 1 to reveal his Dark Side
Day One (Evil Wizard) ~ Brought down alongside the might of Cluny the Scourge
Kath (Ordinary Innocent) ~ Tortured and ripped apart by the wolves on Night 2
Gwathagor (Ordinary Innocent) ~ Assassinated by con-goers on Day 2.
Brinniel (Ordinary Innocent) ~ Made really dead on Night 3.
satansaloser2005 (Werewolf) ~ Day 3
Rikae (Ordinary Innocent) ~ Night 4
Lalwendë (Cobbler) ~ Day 4
Nilpaurion Felagund (Seer) ~ Night 5


~The Living~

Nerwen - Jedi Master, specializing in memorabilia collecting and movie quoting
Feanor of the Peredhil - Rabid Cosmo fan and TOS-TNG Trekkie with opinions
Boromir88 - Fireworks Pyro and Sean Bean's #1 fan
Nogrod - "Spore" anticipator who wants to play Eru
McCaber - Old School RPer
Shastanis Althreduin - Rabid Hermione Fan-wizard
Mithalwen - Confused hardcore Tolkienista who thought she was going to Oxonmoot
Isabellkya - Rabid fan of Vampire Princess Miyu
Macalaure - "Civilization" fan with Machiavellian tendencies

[Mithalwen]

Aieee .... my boy ..... Sad mummie.....
but I will try to avenge your death rather than speak more of it.

So that leaves us with :



Nogrod - Known innocent
Shastanis Althreduin - Known innocent
Mithalwen - Known by me to be innocent.

Isabellkya -
Macalaure -
Nerwen -
Feanor of the Peredhil -
Boromir88
McCaber -

One of the last five is a wolf.
I
The ranger could be anyone else since I assume Nilp had the wit not to out a fellow gifted pointlessly and I see n advantage in them outing themselves. Clearly Nogrod and Shasta are most vulnerable but if the wolf goes for them there is a 50% save chance . If the go for one of the rest it makes it easier.

So we are in a good but not invincible position. And without Lalwende distracting us we may hear ourselves think.

Current order of suspicion is probably

McCaber/Nerwen - joint favourites
Issy
Fea
Boro
Macalaure - but I need to look at him still.

[Boromir88]

Well that's kind of shocking.

I appreciated it when Boro took a look at him, but voting him based on that is over the top.~Mac

Who do you think I am Mac? I knew it was a thow-away vote, and I knew McCaber was in no way going to get lynched. This is a game about "evidence," but evidence can be manipulated. So, like Fea said this is a game also about reactions as much as anything else, and reactions can be twisted/taken the wrong way. Hence why I use a healthy dose of both. I knew McCaber wouldn't be lynched, and Nogrod said the exact reasons why, as much as I could argue McCaber looks guilty, the exact opposite argument could be made. So, why did I throw away my vote? To cause a stir and host of reactions of course.

Don't really need to say this, because Nogrod is innocent, but he reacted exactly as I expected:

It really seems looking back at the things that he has been a bit too right - and I can see if you will be upset by this claim if you happen to be an innocent who just got it so right this time McCaber! But that's really a performance a bit too good to be true!

Anyway... I'm not sure I'd wish to lynch him toDay. I mean even if the case looks nice there are probably stronger reasons not to believe it (would McCaber want to be left alone against 10 villagers with seer & ranger around?). But it is good the points on McCaber were made for if he is indeed the wolf he can't now ride with the free ticket of extra-credibility anymore in the end did things go that far...

For whatever it's worth Mac, you reacted as I expected. For you, I was watching whether you would latch on to my suspicions, but you didnt. Both you and Nerwen raised reasonable questions to consider and thus decided I was a cobbler or some kind of crazy man.

Fea's reaction was nothing surprising. She still has an unquenchable obsession to find out my role (by lynching me), so she can be sure. I don't get it, she always thinks the worst of me, and seems to take too much joy into thinking I'm a bold-faced liar who is pulling off the most unbelievable bluff imaginable.

Mith did follow on with my vote, but that also isn't suprising, since the argument I used was straight from Mith's motto as a wolf - "Don't look like you're so certain about everything."

I don't think I heard anything out of Izzy about it, just that she thinks McCaber's probably innocent. Were you trying to stay out of it Izzy, or did you just think I'm an insane whack-job and thus didn't pay heed to it?

And as I said I don't like McCaber's retaliation vote.

Here is where I can explain myself a little better. It really isn't about what Rikae said, who she voted for at all, well it is but that's not the crux of the argument. That was kind of my last minute ramblings as I was in a hurry to leave, from my lunch break. I noticed Rikae voted for McCaber on Day 2, and Sally on Day 3, after Sally is lynched Rikae ends up dead. Thus I saw an interesting connection that perhaps the wolves believed Rikae was the seer, and if McCaber was already under he suspicions (though Rikae wasn't sure), and McCaber's a wolf, just like they did with Brinn...maybe he wanted to get to Rikae before she found out for sure.

But, that's not the crux of my argument, the real pie to it all is McCaber's post 451 yesterday. Where he tries to force the fact that both him and Mac are proven innocents finally (that is not true):

So are we finally clear that Mac and Iare innocent? Good.

And his hastiness to turn towards the 5 "suspicious" people and kill them...after all that should be easy right? Because their voting record obviously isn't as clean as McCaber's:

And I figure that between the mob killings and the seer dreams we can kill/exonerate the five (or so) SPs (suspicious persons) remaining without much difficulty. I hope it doesn't come to that, though.

It was then when I turned back to look at just how squeaky clean his record has been. Voting for wolves all 3 days, and his feelings that Gwath and Nogrod were innocent (both true). His feeling that I was innocent, but when I turned up the pressure I suddenly became the cobbler (you were right the former there McCaber).

Call it luck, but I don't think anyone's record is that spotless unless they know too much information. I mean you've nabbed two wolves Mac, that is very good, but you have been wrong about me, Brin, and others in this game. I was right on Lal, but I was horribly wrong about CoD. I'm sorry McCaber's been a little too good to be lucky.

[Mithalwen]

I have to go but will be back earlier tomorrow but I voted Mc Caber because he was the only of my main WOLF suspects who I stood a chance of being lynched. I was certain that Lal was teh cobbler and prepared to ignore her.

[McCaber]

But Boro, your points break down when you consider that every single post of mine on Days 2 & 3 was focused on bringing sally down. If I were simply voting her without bringing much else against her, I could see that. But for a while I was the only one harping about her Day 1 vote. I don't think a wolf would devote every waking moment towards killing a packmate.

I will agree that my retaliation vote was over the top. Sorry.

EDIT: crossed with Mith

[Nogrod]

Oh my... sure it is a number one priority for the wolf to kill the seer - not the least when people start to make fun of it and to actually try to puzzle the wolf and lead her/him into other directions (eg. setting the seer-save up saving also the know innocents in that way...). The wolf can't take the risk - I mean the risk of not trying to kill the seer and to miss him the next Night as well. Maybe our hunter thought s/he was gambling in some interesting way I can't get... Well, we'll have to do without Nilp then.

By the way McCaber there are a few funny things in your post... Like this:

I will agree that my retaliation vote was over the top. Sorry.

And this:

But Boro, your points break down when you consider that

Talking about the position from where these kinds of things come from...


Darn I'd have loved to have know whether Nerwen is to be trusted or lynched...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I don't understand why the Ranger listened to Nilp and chose not to protect him. I seriously don't understand. Can somebody tell me why it would be a good idea not to protect the known Seer at night? Anybody?

[Isabellkya]

I don't think I heard anything out of Izzy about it, just that she thinks McCaber's probably innocent. Were you trying to stay out of it Izzy, or did you just think I'm an insane whack-job and thus didn't pay heed to it? ~Boro

I think a mixture of insane whack-job, running out of time, and it is crazy enough it could be true.


X'ed with Fea.

[Macalaure]

Ah! The ranger really did gamble! Now we're pretty much as smart as yesterday... but at least the cobbler is gone.

Originally Posted by Boro

Who do you think I am Mac?

That "some kind of crazy man" you mentioned up there... that comes kinda close.
Well, I admit you look better now. This was surely an interesting trap, even though it didn't seem to have worked out entirely. Yesterday, I thought you were trying to get someone lynched who was widely regarded as innocent - with so many known innocents around (4 if Nilp had been saved), the wolf would be looking to get people lynched who were unlikely to get lynched otherwise and wo he therefore usually would kill. I could see an ingenious scheme with your position today as plan B, but for now I will stick to less far-fetched scenarios.

Originally Posted by Boro

Call it luck, but I don't think anyone's record is that spotless unless they know too much information.

I still have a hard time believing that. Only a young newbie wolf would use his additional information that carelessly. I wouldn't want to lynch somebody who has been that wrong unless there is harder evidence.


I think I need a fresh impression of the past votings.

[Boromir88]

I still have a hard time believing that. Only a young newbie wolf would use his additional information that carelessly. I wouldn't want to lynch somebody who has been that wrong unless there is harder evidence.~Mac

I battled with Lalwende for 3+ days, no reason I can't suit up for another long battle with McCaber. For Gondor! Oops bad timing, we're already past IC stuff.

But Boro, your points break down when you consider that every single post of mine on Days 2 & 3 was focused on bringing sally down.~McCaber

I've spent the entire day(s) building arguments against wolf-partners, Nogrod's done it too, don't try to make us think you're incapable of doing so. Ask Mithalwen, I doubt she wants to be my wolf-buddy ever again, I was out for her death...oh and Nerwen too, but that was more of an forced sacrificial situation.

[Boromir88]

If no one minds that I interject here again...

I still have a hard time believing that. Only a young newbie wolf would use his additional information that carelessly.~Mac

Whether you think it's careless, or not, is irrelevant; you are attaching your emotions/opinions to the evidence. Since only a newbie wolf would be that careless, and McCaber is not new to this, thus McCaber is not a wolf.

That logic doesn't hold; if I said only a stupid dog would fall down the steps, and my dog is not stupid, therefor he would never fall down the steps. That statement would false, because my dog has fallen down the steps.

Just look at the evidence for what it is, no attached feelings or opinions, just look at it. McCaber's had a squeaky clean voting record and has been right about everyone he's mentioned (until I pointed this out yesterday when I became the cobbler).

Would a careless wolf do that? I don't know would you consider me a careless wolf? Because it's more just an unconscious reaction than anything else, you can't just have this "turn off" switch that you have special information because you're a wolf. You have to constantly watch what you say and remind yourself "I don't know for certain." Also, it's a rather uncareless strategy in the regards of how long would it have gone unnoticed? I had no desire to look into McCaber deeper until he tried to convince us he could be written off as a proven innocent. How many of the 5 suspicious people that McCaber said should we have no difficulty in lynching/exonerating would have of turned up innocent before somebody did notice McCaber's tidy record? How careless is it, when it's hard as hell to convince you this is not "weak" and "careless?"

[Boromir88]

You want to talk about insanity...Mith, Nogrod, and I have accounted for 39.2% of the posts.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Whether you think it's careless, or not, is irrelevant; you are attaching your emotions/opinions to the evidence. Since only a newbie wolf would be that careless, and McCaber is not new to this, thus McCaber is not a wolf.

That logic doesn't hold; if I said only a stupid dog would fall down the steps, and my dog is not stupid, therefor he would never fall down the steps. That statement would false, because my dog has fallen down the steps.

Just look at the evidence for what it is, no attached feelings or opinions, just look at it.

Okay Boro, now you're making me feel good about you.

So the no-nonsense Boro is back and I'm tending to believe in his innocence for now - not so much because of that return even if it helps a bit - but mainly because of the vote by Sally on Day1 and the death of Lal the Cobbler...

And your case on McCaber is surely worth looking at. I'm not sure I'm as convinced of it as you seem to be but I'm thinking it quite plausible for now. But I need to be doing some revaluating before giving a stronger opinion on it.

I'm still somewhat worried about Nerwen and Fëa.

Fëa has played systematically in a way that is anything but transparent - I mean she has been methodically playful / odd which could be perfect disguise for a wolf (or then just an ordo having fun with it).

Nerwen is nice, very observant and careful while throwing votes away... Very much non-controversial in many ways. Just like a sneaky wolf would be. Gah, if we just knew her role it would be a lot easier as I do appreciate her help a lot when she's innocent.

OOC: Lommy & Greenie are down to my place for the weekend and we'll be doing stuff so I won't be around as much I'd normally be at this time of the Day but I'll try to come back before going to sleep to look backwards a few things.

[Macalaure]

Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Boro
Ordo -> me
Ordo -> Rikae
WolfofDespair -> Day1
McCaber -> WolfofDespair (he calls it semi-random, which in the light of CoD's vote just preceding his makes sense)
Cobbler -> Brinn
Fea -> Boro (puts Boro in the lead over CoD)
Izzy -> WolfofDespair (Boro and CoD 2, unless Izzywolf really did try to do some backstabbing, this looks very innocent)
Ordo -> Brinn
me -> WolfofDespair (again, unless some backstabbing was planned, innocent-looking. I would say, though, that this vote is more likely to be a backstab than Izzy's, because it has more determination behind it, so to speak)
KI -> Gwath
Wolfisaloser -> Boro (I agree, this would have had to be a pretty insane move if Boro is a wolf)
Mith -> WolfofDespair (it would have been easy to avoid this vote, unless Mithwolf thought CoD would go down eventually anyway, and looking good at his expense worth it - seeing Sally's vote, however, this then must've been a plan of Mith alone, and no agreed strategy)
Boro -> Lalcobblë (it's still a throwaway)

The CoD-voters still look innocent, barring a wolf-on-wolf, or even a backstab. Fea's and Boro's vote look a lot less innocent. Sally's vote makes Boro look good.

Mith -> Gwath (bad reasoning to go along with it)
Boro -> Lalcobblë (his reasons at the time were thin, but now that we know her role, it's hard to argue against it)
Fea -> Boro (what to do with this one?)
Izzy -> Nogrod (and with this?)
Ordo -> Nogrod
McCaber -> Wolfisaloser (calculated wolf-on-wolf risk in a wide field of votes?)
Ordo -> McCaber
Seer -> Gwath
Wolfisaloser -> Nogrod
Lalcobblë -> McCaber (she obviously thought him innocent and tried to get rid of him... doesn't mean he is innocent, of course)
Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
me -> Gwath (in hindsight, choosing ordo over ordo, but as a wolf, I could also have stayed out of it all and see Nogrod die or voted Nogrod to save Sally. Of course, I suspected Sally before and one might wonder why I picked Gwath over her)
Nerwen -> Boro (throwaway)
KI -> Gwath

All early votes carry some amount of suspiciousness, especially Fea and Izzy's. Nerwen's looks bad. My choosing Gwath over Sally does have some smell. McCaber's could be wolvish, but out of all these, it's on the more innocent side.

Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Nogrod
Boro -> Lalcobblë (Groundhog day...)
Fea -> Mith (?)
Lalcobblë -> Mith (cobblerish bandwaggoning. Mith did look innocent, but maybe this was enhanced by Lal thinking Fea might be a wolf)
Izzy -> Nogrod (not look good this one does)
McCaber -> Wolfisaloser (can McCaber really be so eager to be the last remaining one?)
Mith -> Lalcobblë (little surprise)
Nerwen -> Boro (another throwaway for the same person)
Wolfisaloser -> Nogrod
Seer -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Wolfisaloser
me -> Wolfisaloser (sure, I voted a wolf, but only when it was clear where the train went (I did cross with Nogrod, though))

Izzy's and Nerwen's look bad. Fea's a little. Boro and Mith are middle-of-the-road-ish, McCaber's and mine are more innocent-ish, his more so.

Seer -> Lalcobblë
Lalcobblë -> Boro (she apparently thought that no wolf would go after a cobbler like that. Some do, though)
Boro -> McCaber (trap or no trap?)
KI -> Nerwen
Izzy -> Fea (her reason seems logical, all other options had a catch... except Boro - voting for him might or might not have been smart, but a throwaway?)
Fea -> Lalcobblë (she could have thought she was not the cobbler, or decided to make herself look better by giving a deciding vote for the cobbler)
McCaber -> Boro (retaliation, understandable? maybe. helpful? certainly no.)
Nerwen -> Lalcobblë (same as Fea, the alternative would have been Boro, which could have made a Nerewolf look bad later)
Mith -> McCaber (don't like this one, for the reason I stated against Boro in my last post)
me -> Lalcobblë (logical choice at this late point)
KI -> Lalcobblë

Hard to tell which votes were suspicious without a known wolf around. Mith's stands out a little and I hesitated too long.

Nerwen (1: n/a, 2: suspicious, 3: somewhat suspicious, 4: unsuspicious)
Izzy (1: innocent, 2: suspicious, 3: suspicious, 4: hard to tell)
Fea (1: somewhat suspicious, 2: suspicious, 3: somewhat suspicious, 4: unsuspicious)
Boro (1: somewhat suspicious, 2: a little suspicious, 3: neither, 4: who knows)
Mith (1: pretty innocent, 2: somewhat suspicious, 3: neither, 4: a bit suspicious)
me (1: quite innocent, 2: a little suspicious, 3: innocent-ish, 4: a bit suspicious)
McCaber (1: rather innocent, 2: more innocent, 3: innocent, 4: deeply unhelpful)

Nerwen's problem is that, unlike the rest, she does not have one piece of innocent-looking evidence for her. If she's not the wolf, it means that the wolf obtained one such.
Izzy and Mith lynched one wolf, McCaber and I two. Not one of these votes have a clear wolf-on-wolf feeling to it. Boro was seriously threatened by a vote from a wolf. Fea made a bluff that I have a hard time imagining a (lone!) wolf would have done.

I'm not really convinced of Nerwen's guilt, but something tells me we should lynch her before we check out the people looking innocent at first glance.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

That logic doesn't hold; if I said only a stupid dog would fall down the steps, and my dog is not stupid, therefor he would never fall down the steps. That statement would false, because my dog has fallen down the steps.

A dog has fallen down the stairs. Your dog is smart, therefore the chances that it was him are slim. (I never said it would never fall.)

Originally Posted by Boro

Just look at the evidence for what it is, no attached feelings or opinions, just look at it.

I look at it and I see a clear record. As long as I see better options, I think it's madness to go for somebody with a clear record! Yes, I admit his vote for you doesn't look good, but if I was innocent, had a clear record, and then saw your case and vote, I would have been upset, too. Concerning him trying to convince us he's a nearly known innocent, I give you that one. But these are not enough to change my mind. Not yet.

Originally Posted by Boro

Because it's more just an unconscious reaction than anything else, you can't just have this "turn off" switch that you have special information because you're a wolf.

Umm, yes, you can. At least you know you have to. Many, maybe most, wolves aren't able to do it consistently, but to consistently not do it, that's just not what an even moderately smart wolf - usually - would do.


As I said, I'm not writing him off, but right now I don't think that lynching him is a good idea.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mac on Day1 voting

Fea -> Boro (puts Boro in the lead over CoD)

You call this somewhat suspicious Mac? I'd call it somewhat unsuspicious... Why would a wolf make one of her mates to top her other mate? Wouldn't there be thousands of possibilities other than that - and more profitable to the wolves even if one weren't too much going to save the one in trouble (eg. CoD)?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You call this somewhat suspicious Mac? I'd call it somewhat unsuspicious... Why would a wolf make one of her mates to top her other mate? Wouldn't there be thousands of possibilities other than that - and more profitable to the wolves even if one weren't too much going to save the one in trouble (eg. CoD)?

Umm, but if Fea is a wolf then she voted the innocent Boromir and gave him the lead over CoD...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Umm, but if Fea is a wolf then she voted the innocent Boromir and gave him the lead over CoD...

Oops... Had Nilp not told you I was innocent you would have probably lynched me for that...

I was still in the mindset of last Day's speculation about Sally & Boro and was just wishing to say something while my mind was away... and is still.

I'll post next time only after I'm really in with this.

Soo bad...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Oops... Had Nilp not told you I was innocent you would have probably lynched me for that...

Not really, that was just a mistake. Don't worry.

[Isabellkya]

I am going to finish looking at Mith since I didn't get a chance to, and I don't want to leave it undone.
As well as Nerwen and Fea.

Since Lal died as the Cobbler, I suppose that puts Boro in a bit of better light. Leaving him either innocent or wolf. Though, Sally's vote for him on Day 1 is kind of bugging me.

[Nogrod]

I got with Fëa and Nerwen to the end of the Day3 but it's getting too late for me to continue as I'd wish to say a few words about what I found before going to sleep.


Fëa:

D1
Banter, having fun, Day1 is useless, flirting with the dark side like:

“And will therefore vote before work tomorrow afternoon, based entirely on whim (or possibly dice rolling) unless somebody besides me says "I'm a wolf."”

Or:

“And really, Boro, do you think I'm going to admit I'm a wolf this early in the game, even if I am one?”

She plays a kind of a meta-game placing herself above the actual game all the time, which is something that is easy to hold constantly and not blood your hands in anywhere… Other than that she basically only takes contact with Boro (she answers a few questions or comments some points in passing but other than that, no) and speaks of out-of-the-game issues.

Finally votes for Boro for:

“Because I have enough faith in his ability to figure out why, and because there's always a really great chance that I'm right”

Hangs around after her vote given one hour before the DL (gives the correct time for the DL about an half an hour before it) but does not contribute anything else.

D2
Opens the Day with a red alert post:

So I get out of classes yesterday, and I'm thinking "Wow, I love art history! I'm barely aware I'm even taking it." And I'm thinking "Wow, I love aesthetics. It's so funny, having class with smart alecky boys." And I'm reading the thread and I'm eating lunch and I'm thinking "Wait, who has the most votes? What's happening?" And I take a slightly closer look and think "Why did they kill Cap? ZOMG he's a wolf?"

So now I'm thinking I need to reread the thread and figure out how people saw his behavior and was like "Wolf" when I really hadn't thought twice about him.

Is annoyed by Shasta asking her a question. Calls him a wolf.

Wavers between Shasta and Boro after a rant on apologies, votes Boro;

“(who could have seen that coming?)”

D3
Continues the meta-game talking only general principles. Though says:

“Shasta and Boro, congrats for passing my unofficial test for the day. Tomorrow, who knows. Today, you're off my hitlist.

I could see a Mithwolf in this game...”

Votes Mith an hour before the DL in a hurry with "sorry darling I love you but…" Says this of others:

“Temporarily considered a negligible threat: Nilp, Nogrod, Mac, Shasta

Worrisome: Rikae, Nerwen, Boro, Mith, Lal

I'm barely aware they're playing: Sally, McCaber, Izzy, Fea “

Makes her interesting post #367

“I miss the phantom right now. He'd get a kick out of what I'm about to do. I wonder if anyone else will understand...

Here are my rules:

1) For the love of all things holy, will the real seer PLEASE not refute me?

2) Don't listen to a word I say.

Here's my action:

Village, I am the seer.”

-------

Nerwen:

D1
#43 Very much a wolf’s first post. All those suspected were / are innocents (including one cobbler) and all was done in character style.

Never appears back again on Day1 but had an baby possum inside her house brought by her cat or something…

D2
Quotes people on Shasta. The result:

“As others have said, Sally is a little odd... she's one of the first to raise suspicion of CaptainofDespair, but then plays it down the tighter the noose gets around his neck. However, it's not as if there was a particularly good case against him.”

Also questions Boro’s credentials there. Concentrates on Lal and insists that if there were a WoW on Day1 it would have been McCaber or Mith, questions Boro’s theory about Brinnwolf looking at Kath as a seer.

Thinks that Gwath looks “disingenuous” but me and Mith look even worse for our suspicions on him. Questions Lal a bit more.

Clearly is around at the last hour but only corrects Nilp’s quote twenty minutes before the DL + votes Boro “running out of time”.

D3
Defends her vote on Boro after Boro asked about it with a clip of her own post. Wants to hear from Gwath voters – me, Mith, Nilp & Mac in a questioning post. Lightly remembers old games. Questions others for an opinion on Lal, says Mac is too good to be true and the seer should check him. Points out to Boro’s consistency in voting Lal…

Says she could have voted for the “de facto cobbler” Lal but decides to go for Boro twenty minutes before DL. Notifies Fëa’s reveal two times but has nothing to say to it. Says Nilp would be a cobbler candidate #4 in the end

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Other than that she basically only takes contact with Boro

If I try to pay attention to too many people or things at once, I get really distracted and confused. I'm the poster child for misdiagnosed ADD. I therefore concentrate on and obsess over one person at a time until I'm satisfied. In this case, I latched onto Boro in an unhealthy manner, and can't multitask properly because I'm still too fixated. Like the way that Bella and Edward are obsessed with each other. I can't even help it.

Anyway...

[Nogrod]

I'm continuing to be very uneasy with Nerwen.

The D1 post is just too nicely throwing the non-wolves into the fray.

If she's a wolf the starter of Day2 is a classic: “As others have said, Sally is a little odd... she's one of the first to raise suspicion of CaptainofDespair, but then plays it down the tighter the noose gets around his neck. However, it's not as if there was a particularly good case against him.”

Makes some wolvish moves, like saying Gwath (ordo) is suspicious but even more so are myself (ordo) and Mith (I'd presume ordo), has only a few people actually suspected - as not to gain too much retaliatory votes, hangs around the deadline (as she corrects a quote an half an hour earlier) but votes at the last minute - without contributing anything to the discussion within the last hour. A satisfied wolf that is only observing the death of an ordo?

Looks even more suspicious on Day3. Quick to defend her vote on Boro, tries to move the attention to Gwath-voters (two known innocents and two probable ones).

Bringing Fëa's "revealment" up twice with "what????!!!!" looks a bit sinister as well. Like a frustrated wolf looking at her mate go and trying to get attention to that one without committing herself too much into defending her mate? If I were a wolf there I would have loved to bring about a last minute wagon on Fëa but one shouldn't be too open with it so as a wise player Nerwen didn't press it too far? Was probably already thinking Lal was the cobbler and tried to eat and save the cake (the best wolf-tactics so far ) by suspecting her of cobblery but still voting Boro - which was a bad idea were she an ordo or a wolf as that was a complete throw-away even if she tried lightly to change the agenda later on.

An innocent would mind one's votes a bit more...


Fëa is an enigma. Some things scream a wolf, some others make me think of her an ordo just toying with the game as she has no role and thence is not too enthusiastic about it.


Right now I'd say Nerwen is the last wolf but I'm wishing to hear other points on it - especially those of Nerwen herself.

EDIT: X'd with Fëa... hmmm...?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm continuing to be very uneasy with Nerwen.

Nogrod, I find your lack of faith disturbing....

Answering your case:

I qualified my points about Sally because– well, it was true that there hadn't been a real case against CoD.

And Fea– yes, I expressed bewilderment at the way she was acting. Is that strange?

As for the voting–

I have been extremely busy around the deadline the last few Days and haven't been able to participate as much as I'd like.

My "throwaway" vote on Day 2 was because I was in such a hurry– plus I crossed with others.

People keep calling my Day 3 vote a throwaway, but I'm not sure why. It wasn't. Other people had yet to vote, and Mac was talking about lynching Boro too. I thought at that stage that Lal was more likely cobbler than wolf, Boro more likely wolf than cobbler. Therefore I voted him. The next day the situation was reversed, so I voted Lal.

Finally, as for these 20-20 hindsight points you make about me having suspected innocents... um... so have you, Nogrod– just ask Gwa– oh, wait, he's dead.

I'm serious... you now have the luxury of being a known innocent, but imagine how some of your moves this game would look if you weren't. I mean, why do you think Nilp dreamed you?

EDIT: fixed bolding.

[Boromir88]

I'm serious... you now have the luxury of being a known innocent, but imagine how some of your moves this game would look if you weren't. I mean, why do you think Nilp dreamed you?~Nerwen

That is exactly my point. Being "wrong" doesn't automatically make one a wolf, it can actually make one look innocent. Mac's been right about two wolves, but he's also been wrong on several people, and his reactions today (as well as yesterday) make him look even more innocent:

I look at it and I see a clear record. As long as I see better options, I think it's madness to go for somebody with a clear record!

Don't take this as an attempt to butter up, but I have absolutely no reasons to vote for Nogrod, Shasta, Mac, Mith, or Fea today. That leaves Izzy, Nerwen, and McCaber.

Now, being wrong alone doesn't make one necessarily a wolf, but the placement of your vote and who you attempt to save (if you were trying to save anyone at all) very well could. You do bring up a good point, and that is cross-posting, I think if you (Mac and Nogrod) are going to argue the placement of Nerwen's vote is suspicious, we have to take any sort of cross-voting into account. Which, I will go back and take a look at now.

[Nerwen]

By the way, Nogrod—

Um... you do realize there's only one wolf now, don't you? You've already been corrected by Mac once, yet you still reason:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Bringing Fëa's "revealment" up twice with "what????!!!!" looks a bit sinister as well. Like a frustrated wolf looking at her mate go and trying to get attention to that one without committing herself too much into defending her mate?

What's the matter with you?

[McCaber]

Yes folks, I was very right the first 3 Days. I was trying to be right to try to be killed by the wolfpack instead of the Seer. The whole sacrifice thing, you know. Now that the Seer is out I don't have to be right so I can say what I feel instead of what I know for sure. That's why I harped on Boro so quickly.

So what you have to decide is being right enough evidence to kill me.

I think not.

[Boromir88]

Nerwen, no Day 1 vote, and said why. No reason to not believe it, something came up, doesn't make her look like a wolf, nor like an innocent.

Day 2:

Looking at who Nerwen said she cross-posted with, she cross-voted with Brinn's (voted for sally) and Mac's (voted for Gwath). When Nerwen cast her vote the situation was:

Nogrod - 3
Gwath - 2
McCaber - 2
Sally - 1
Boro - 1

Brinn gives sally a 2nd vote, Mac ties it up between Nogrod and Gwath, and Nerwen gives me a 2nd vote...all right at the end. (Nogrod saves himself, but I don't know if he crossed with anyone or not, that doesn't matter).

I disagree with Mac that Nerwen's day 2 vote looks suspicious. Nerwen looks like she got stuck in the situation that I was in at the end of Day 1. Nerwen admits it was a throw away, because the situation was coming down between Gwath and Nogrod, it would then appear Nerwen was trying to pass the responsibility to somebody else. But, previously (in post 238) she just says she doesn't know what to think. She didn't like Gwath's response to Rikae, but didn't like Mith and Nogrod's jump on Gwath. She also marks she doesn't like the way I went after Lalwende after she had been testing Lal and concluded Lal was not a wolf.

The way Nerwen goes after the "bandwagoners" who are quick to follow someone else is consistent.

Day 3:

When Nerwen votes for me, she crosses with McCaber's vote for sally, and Mith's vote for Lal.

So the situation was...

Nogrod - 2
Mith - 2
sally - 1
Lal - 1

Nerwen adds me to the list, while sally and Lal both receive their 2nd votes. I'm not quite sure what to make of this. Sally was a wolf, and if Nerwen's a wolf, why would she spread the vote more? Why wouldn't she try to create some distance for sally? I mean she did have Lal (the believed cobbler) to sacrifice if needed, to try and create a diversion/get sally out of focus. Spreading the vote in that situation doesn't make sense for a wolf.

Also, sally's response to Nerwen's vote:

Again. Confused. Adding another candidate this close to deadline never makes me happy. (Unless he DOES have a previous vote and I missed it, in which case mildly disregard this comment)

Now, would wolf sally point this out to a wolf-Nerwen. Possibly, she did react to CoD's Day 1 vote, but then she went on to defend him. Plus, her reaction to CoD, looked like an over-reaction (looked fake), I wouldn't call this an over-reaction. Still the question is, because I don't know, would sally point that out if Nerwen was a wolf too?

Day 4:

Doesn't cross-vote with anyone, votes for Lal, tying her up with me.
The question I have for you Nerwen, is I see you mention that if Nogrod was right, than I at most am the cobbler, where Lal could be a wolf. Now that does lie consistent with your approach in this village, wanting to vote for a wolf first, rather than shoot for the cobbler. But how did you decide that Lal could be a wolf, when the days before you said you reached the conclusion she wasn't furry?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The question I have for you Nerwen, is I see you mention that if Nogrod was right, than I at most am the cobbler, where Lal could be a wolf. Now that does lie consistent with your approach in this village, wanting to vote for a wolf first, rather than shoot for the cobbler. But how did you decide that Lal could be a wolf, when the days before you said you reached the conclusion she wasn't furry?

That was an early conclusion, which I'd revised by the time I voted her. At first I suspected her, but her replies to my questions made me believe her just a very confused ordo. However, as the game continued, it became increasingly clear that she was evil. I thought she was most likely the cobbler, but I couldn't logically rule out her being a wolf... whereas it seemed Sally's vote probably cleared you (the other possibility was voting Fea, but I hadn't had time to take a good look at her).

[Boromir88]

So what you have to decide is being right enough evidence to kill me.

I think not.~McCaber

It's not just the 3 votes buddy, it's that almost statement you made (prior to me bringing this up) was right - about Gwath, and about Nogrod, and did say you thought I was innocent until yesterday. Now, you did say on Day 1 that Brinn seemed off, and there was a period you were unsure about me, but that's it.

Yes folks, I was very right the first 3 Days. I was trying to be right to try to be killed by the wolfpack instead of the Seer.

With that impressive voting record why was it that Brinn and Rikae were killed. Kath was killed because she simply left no trail to follow. But, Brinn and Rikae were more active members, who did leave a trail (and both incriminated sally), thus their deaths can only mean the wolves thought they were getting the seer.

The fact that Brinn gets killed after voting for sally. Rikae gets killed after voting for sally, and sally is found to be a wolf, can't be coincidence. Rikae's list of "creepies" after excluding herself (innocent), Nogrod (innocent), sally (wolf), were Izzy and you, McCaber. The question is which one of you fear you'd be a seer dream next?

See, and that's still not the whole argument. Your votes, while they be for wolves (the first 3 days) are safe.

Day 1, you're the first vote for CoD, and you vote before any of the real suspicion grows against him. There was no reason to believe CoD was going to be lynched until the very last minutes. Exactly as Nerwen said, it's a safe place for a wolf-on-wolf vote. You obviously wouldn't be expecting CoD a bandwagon lynching against a wolf on Day 1, and if/when CoD is proven to be a wolf, you can go back to that Day 1 vote.

Your Day 2 vote is also safe. While you did consistently go after sally that day, it was another safe vote to make for a wolf. Gwath and Nogrod were the focus, very fewb people were talking about sally. I brought up at the beginning her strange reaction to CoD, Rikae said she thought the exact opposite and that was pretty much it about sally for the rest of the day. Nerwen, Lal, and myself got into it a little bit, Mac's taken up Fea's desire to lynch me, but he's less trigger happy. The focus was off sally, another safe vote, and as far as Day 2 goes a way to stay out of the action (between Gwath/Nogrod and Nerwen/Lal/Mac/me). The other person who did bring up more suspicion against sally, ended up dead during the night.

Day 3, this I admit is a little less safe, and you did continue to pursue sally. But again a safe, early vote for sally. Even though you put her into the lead (2nd vote for sally). There still a lot of people left to vote, anything could happen, and with all the attention Lal and I had been attracting for 2 days, it was another good place for a wolf-on-wolf vote. If sally doesn't end up getting lynched great, if she does you look extremely innocent.

The fact that you continued to pursue sally, may have very well convinced me that you are indeed innocent if not for the fact that your first post the next day you state:

So are we finally clear that Mac and Iare innocent? Good.

Now that we're all on the same page,

You're quick to want to put to rest any possibility that you (or Mac) are wolves, because of your voting record. That assumption automatically rings alarms, because you're not proven innocent until the seer says you're proven innocent. Yet, you want to quickly put the discussion to rest. And you set your sights on the 5 unknown, suspicious people, directing everyone's attention to them. Marking that we should be able to kill/exonerate them without much more difficulty.

Now to answer Nogrod's question, that would the wolf team leave wolf McCaber in this situation. Where obviously the last wolf has exteme odds to overcome. I don't know that. But I do know 2 wolves have been lynched in the first 2-days before, and a lone wolf has survived to the end. I do know that McCaber would not have likely been a seer dream, especially with his early impressive voting record. I do know thus that with McCaber's voting record people could easily feel safe about him, and thus he could go slip into the background. I do know that we could have gone several days lynching the assumed 5 "unknowns" (when really Mac and McCaber are both unknown too), and then we might start seeing our big advantage disappear.

I do know we can't take an innocent for granted, we can't just lynch someone on the grounds of "wanting to know for sure," if Fea would get her way I'd have an early exit every time. No matter the advantage, each and every day we have to go into it trying to nab a wolf.

We have a good group of known innocent right now, and with the ranger still we may keep this group for a few days yet. I'm willing to bet the farm on this one. I ask you continue to trust me. If it turns out I'm wrong about McCaber, I'll let you decide what to do with me, if that means lynching me, so be it, than Fea will get her wish.

[McCaber]

And I'd be willing to bet that Boro is completely and utterly wrong. Remember the last time two people went head to head in this game? Both were innocents harping on phrases that could be taken badly. I'm sure that if I really wanted to I could put together a convincing argument that Boro is indeed a wolf and should be killed. But I won't, because I think he's innocent. (Should I apologize yet one more time for calling him a cobbler? I was enjoying my freedom to not be a sacrifice to the wolves to keep the seer alive. Yes, that was my main motivation besides killing sally.) Instead, I'll keep defending myself and looking for wolves among the others. I can agree that it would be a horribly cunning strategy for one wolf to completely betray the last wolf, but that's not how I play. I prefer to keep as many people on my team alive as possible. Which is probably why I'm not scanning Boro's posts for wolvery as much as some of my other suspects.

And I would not view my Day 2&3 votes as safe and early. They both came about half an hour before DL, and I tried to start bandwaggons against she who I knew was a wolf.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

Mac's been right about two wolves, but he's also been wrong on several people, and his reactions today (as well as yesterday) make him look even more innocent:

I'm soo going to bite the dust once Nogrod and Shasta are killed.

Originally Posted by McCaber

I was trying to be right to try to be killed by the wolfpack instead of the Seer.

Huh? Well, apart from the remaining wolf, I'm sure everybody here is trying to be right all the time - not because of any wolf/seer/thing, but simply because being right facilitates winning the game quite significantly. It's not the trying to be right, but the being right that most people consider to be the challenging part.


Out of all wolf-lynchers, I think Izzy looks most suspicious, and since she seems to be a little overlooked today, I'll have a closer look at her next.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Yes folks, I was very right the first 3 Days. I was trying to be right to try to be killed by the wolfpack instead of the Seer. The whole sacrifice thing, you know.

Uh-oh... Now this looks... well, very strange to say the least.

I think I need to adopt that tactics in the next one I'm an ordo: just be right about everyone so that the wolves kill me instead of killing the seer.

Now what makes me wonder is the motivation issue. Why would an innocent say something like this? Why would an innocent try that kind of posture?


Also I find this a bit disturbing:

Originally Posted by McCaber

Remember the last time two people went head to head in this game? Both were innocents harping on phrases that could be taken badly. I'm sure that if I really wanted to I could put together a convincing argument that Boro is indeed a wolf and should be killed. But I won't, because I think he's innocent.

Boro suspects McCaber and he answers that he could start suspecting Boro and then it would be an innocent against innocent situation (referring to Gwath and me earlier). Now what? There isn't a consistent row between you two and then you say you could turn it into one - which then "proves" you're an innocent because the row would tell us you both are innocents?

Although I still find it hard to believe the lone wolf situation this early was planned by the wolves. Is it possible they just messed it all up?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ask Mithalwen, I doubt she wants to be my wolf-buddy ever again, I was out for her death...oh and Nerwen too, but that was more of an forced sacrificial situation.

It was not the fun experience I expected certainly as things worked out - left on my own for a lot of the decision making at night and ripped apart during the day. I mean I had told them to do what they had to but I was still wincing most of that game despite or perhaps because Boro is one of my best Downs friends. Absolutely ruthless .... which is why I can't absolutely trust him now. Though I would be very suprised if he were the wolf now.

However I always err on the side of optimism and hope that a way round can be found which is why I have never voted wolf on wolf.

All I can say about the Gwath vote being dragged up again is that I really did have to go and without time for consideration his "you could be a wolf reply" just seemed so odd a response. I am an instinctive player - I latch on to odd stuff and sometimes I am right ( Lal, CoD) and sometimes I am wrong. Sorry. I thought it was better to vote than not :S

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You want to talk about insanity...Mith, Nogrod, and I have accounted for 39.2% of the posts.

That isn't insane, mon ami, - merely inevitable should we all live long enough....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Um... you do realize there's only one wolf now, don't you? You've already been corrected by Mac once, yet you still reason:

What's the matter with you?

I don't see the problem... sorry.

That quote concerns the ending of Day3 when Wolfisaloser2008 was lynched - and she had a mate then - that mate is indeed among us still as otherwise we would have won this already.

So were you Nerwen a wolf you would have been very annoyed looking at Sally going down (your last mate that is as I said there) and the way you try to bring forwards Fëa's "revelation" twice kind of looks like saying it cautiously that we should perhaps look at Fëa at the last minutes rather than lynch Sally.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Finally, as for these 20-20 hindsight points you make about me having suspected innocents... um... so have you

I do agree with you that suspecting or even voting innocents is no "proof" of anyone's lupinity. Of course not, as we all do it all the time. But if McCaber has been unbeliavably right all the time you have been very-very-wrong all the time managing to basically suspect or turn the discussion to ordos all the time without getting it right at all. Now I don't say it's impossible one gets things totally wrong - it's happened to me as well and I think to everyone - but it's not usual after four Days... So I thought it was worth noticing among other possible reasons to suspect you.

Talking about luxuries:

Nogrod, I find your lack of faith disturbing....

Sadly a werewolf-game isn't the place where you'd be happy to make a leap of faith as your first act.