Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Kath]

Well that was a rollercoaster! A serious blow to lose the Seer but a very effective Night for the Beast Hunter.

Lommy is right that finding a way to communicate with Greenie in the Dead Thread is a good idea but given the only means of communication is the vote for the Medium, and we only see that in the narration, I think the effectiveness of any such communication can only really come into play toMorrow.

I am also aware that Greenie's sustained suspicion of me makes things look pretty bad for me toDay. The only thing I hope can convince people that I am not a furry evil-doer is that despite the sustained suspicion, her vote went to Legate in the end. Had I been a wolf, and had she dreamed wolf-me and wolf-Legate, why switch her vote? Even though the Form-waggon (and seriously sorry Form!) pretty much knocked anyone else out of the running, I would have been a better bet for the lynch yesterDay over Legate as far as I can tell.

[Macalaure]

Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.

[Brinniel]

Day 1

Originally Posted by Greenie

Not sure about Kath herself though - I'm not convinced she's plotting with Lottie, but her argument against Huin was odd.

Clearly has not dreamed of Kath at this point.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm speculating on a possible Pitchwolf who is trying to either protect packmate Nilp or lay the groundwork on an easy case against basically anyone who says anything about Nilp. Although there's also some merit in Shasta and Lommy's theory that he's the cobbler

Could she have dreamed of an evil Pitch? Considering she also speculates that he could be the cobbler, I'm guessing no.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I need to vote soon, right now could go for Pitch, Kath or Nilp. I'm on the fence about Huin but he probably wouldn't be my first choice.

So far I like what I've seen of Shasta, Lommy, Rikae and Mac. Not alarmed about Lottie. Vaguely uneasy about Brinn and Form, and not sure what to make of Nog and Legate repeatedly commenting on how uneventful it has been (could be frustrated innocents or could be wolves preempting criticism with "well, there was nothing to go on!") No read whatsoever on Sally (feel better soon hun!) or BG.

Note: She does end up voting Pitch.
It's possible Greenie dreamed of an innocent Shasta, Lommy, Rikae, or Mac. But considering she singles out Lottie, I suspect she was her Night 1 dream.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Greenie

I think Shasta's vote comes across as the least fishy of the lot, though admittedly this is simply due to timing; it was the first real vote in the game (sorry Nilp, not counting yours ), and before most of the action happened. But also his tone where he admits that Huin’s response made him feel slightly better but Huin’s still the one he’s most comfortable voting, looks genuine to me.

Rikae says Huin’s paranoia over Lottie and Kath setting him up looks like a guilty conscience, and is second to vote for him. Merits extra attention based on vote placement if Form or Nilp are wolves, but I’m not sure how likely this is given the general feel of the voting yesterDay. I’m notoriously bad at reading Rikae, and this could go either way – Huin would have been a very easy target for a wolf looking for a decent D1 argument against someone, but I could just as well see innocent Rikae finding him the most suspicious of the lot given how generally uneventful the Day was.

Nog votes for Huin after a case against him and several disclaimers on how little there is to go on. This combination looks pretty incriminating – textbook hand-washing wolf – but almost too much so to be true. He’s also quick to turn on Legate based on the Lottie kill, and while the argument has merit, it doesn’t make me feel much better about Nog; if the Huin lynch incriminated a wolf (or more than one), and they killed Lottie for the Huin comments rather than the Legate ones, setting Legate up would be a good way of distracting the village from the Huin lynchers. Then again, the argument about Legate seems plausible too. Could even be wolf-on-wolf? (Sorry, speculation mode went into overdrive.)

Kath seals Huin’s fate with a fourth vote. There were still plenty of people left to vote though, so she wouldn’t necessarily have known this. Her vote was certainly consistent with her earlier pre-vote post where she said she’d like to go for either Huin or Nilp. That post was one of the starting points of the whole suspicion on Huin, and I could see Kathwolf leaving that to take root and then come back later and vote for him because she suspected him all along so she can’t be faulted for jumping on a bandwagon. But as with Nog, this looks so contrived it makes me wonder if Kathwolf would really do this. She would have known that orchestrating an innocent lynch is bound to get her noticed early on when normally she’s capable of skating by quite comfortably for Days before anyone even considers the possibility of her being guilty.

Overall? I’d be surprised if there isn’t a wolf on this list. Nog and Kath look like the most obvious candidates, but almost too obvious to be true. Rikae makes me uneasy (admittedly they always do) but there’s less of an argument to back it, and I don’t think Shasta’s vote tells us much either way given its timing.

If she dreamed of anyone from here, my guess would be Shasta, but it's not clear.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Incidentally, I did have a brief look at Legate's posts. Not much stood out to me either way - there's some game mechanics talk and comments on how quiet it is, but also what was probably the only list post of D1. He votes for Form, saying he prefers him to Huin. Had previously said Brinn and Form discussed wolf strategies in a way that looked like they had already had the discussion the Night before. No alarm bells here. D2 he analyses first the Lottie kill and then the Huin lynch. His post on Lottie did make me raise an eyebrow - he mentions framing him as a possible motive, though to his credit doesn't seem to think it likely. In the same post, he also pretty much discredits the idea that the wolves thought Lottie was the Seer who dreamed of Huin by saying they would think a potential Seer who dreamed an innocent on N1 was "no big deal". This is a distinctly weird argument, but would be even weirder if Legate was a wolf since the Huin theory would be a good counter-argument against the suspicion he would have known he'd come under.

Overall, reading Legate's posts made me feel somewhat better about him - especially the last bit about actively discrediting an argument that would work in his defence. (Unless he's the NW, in which case all bets are off.) What I do find interesting though is the dynamic between Nog and Legate as each of them now seems to think the Lottie kill incriminates the other. *fetches popcorn* Joking aside though, this unnerves me as I think there's still a decent chance they're both innocent - Nog does look sketchy, but his misunderstanding of the wolves' PM rules on D1 would have been an unlikely one from a wolf, or if faked, unsporting in a way I don't think a Nogwolf would be.

If Greenie did dream of Legate, it did not happen on Night 2.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm currently most uneasy about Nog and Kath, though worry they are both almost too textbook-wolves to actually be wolves. Still wary of Pitchwife, especially given how he's managed to slip under my radar toDay. Also somewhat wary of Rikae and Brinn, and flip-flopping on Legate and Mac.

Lommy and Sally are securely under my radar, and while Sally is understandable, Lommy is a bit alarming as she's had a few moderately long posts.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too. Nilp seems more innocent toDay, or maybe it's just that he stopped trying to lynch himself. I'm also leaning innocent on BG and to some extent Form (although he does give off potential Cobbler vibes).

Shasta looks like he may be the most likely Night 2 dream based on this post.

Originally Posted by Greenie

It's getting close to bedtime for me, and since someone has to get the ball rolling, it might as well be me. I feel most comfortable going for

++ Kath

I've said this before - she set Huin up as a suspect (based on reasoning that didn't really hold water, ie. saying Huin probed others without voicing opinions on them himself when he'd done more of that than almost anyone else at that point), left it to take root and then came back and voted for him once others already had. It's consistent in a way that looks choreorgaphed rather than genuine.

My other option was Nog, but I have more reservations about him than Kath at the moment.

Could she dreamt of an evil Kath? It's possible, but if she had, I don't know that she would've wavered between Nog and Kath like she did.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Greenie

Brinniel – I’m not sure what to make of her. Her D1 vote was a very safe one for BG, D2 she was the nail in Nog’s coffin, though with all that chaos yesterDay I can’t be sure she actually knew she was. I also don’t like how both Sally and Mac seem happy to give her a pass because she’s consistent.

Formendacil – Gives me a headache. I still think the Cobbler theory is a possibility, given his discussion of Gifteds and potential Cobbler-hinting early on D1. I haven’t seen anything particularly wolfy from him per se, but I agree with Shasta that there’s a possible pattern to him ending up as the runner-up but not lynched twice in a row now.

Kath – Possibly my best lead at the moment. Her D1 Huin vote is still pretty suspicious in how it was orchestrated, and a vote for Nilp D2 doesn’t make her look any better – it was the second vote for Nilp so can’t be called an outright throwaway, but also Nilp wasn’t a very likely lynchee so keeps her nose clean. I don’t like how careful she’s playing – I mean, she’s always careful to some degree, but this looks a bit too deliberate.

Legate – Another possible wolf, especially given the Lottie kill and the odd comments at the end of yesterDay. Not sure what to make of his interaction with Kath, though – his talk of a Kathwagon yesterDay looked sketchy, but there was a bit on D1 where he misremembered BG’s vote for Form as following Kath instead of Huin. This would be an unlikely mistake to make if they were fellows, as I’d expect him to naturally keep tabs on what his fellows do and who they vote for.

Macalaure – Another headache. I’ve agreed with him a lot over this game, but I’m not at all comfortable with his posting toDay and how he’s suddenly convinced Form is a wolf. I’ll reserve judgment until I hear back from him though as I think I might have misunderstood something.

Nilp – I feel like I’ve gotten a better read of him since he stopped trying to commit suicide, and I’m not too worried at the moment.

Pitchwife – Definitely want to take a look at him toDay. I don’t like how he was suspected on D1 (including by yours truly) and somehow managed to slip by fairly unnoticed yesterDay. His Nog vote isn’t doing him any favours either, especially if Kath is a wolf.

Rikae – Like Nilp, I feel somewhat better about her. I had a quick read through her posts after yesterDay as she was involved in both lynches, but her reasoning looks pretty genuine to me. Additionally, I somehow think a Rikaewolf would play either more careful (as in, steering away from being implicated in innocent lynches twice in a row) or more confrontational/manipulative.

Sally – I’m getting slightly uneasy about her. Her list post, especially regarding Form and Brinn, seems somewhat contrived - as in, the logic looks off from an innocent POV. Nothing more substantial yet, though.

Shasta – I like to think I’m okay at reading him, and still get more or less an innocent Shasta -vibe.

Lommy – Also starting to worry me. She’s somehow more slippery and careful than usual, and pretty much under everyone’s radar. Part of this might just be due to her being around less than usual, but I don’t think that’s all of it. Another one I’d love to read through toDay if I have time.

Another innocent Shasta clue. I keep thinking she must've dreamed of Legate on Night 3, but she still remains very suspicious of Kath so I wonder if maybe she was a dream after all.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Finally, I like that Rikae and Shasta are back and I think they both sound like their innocent selves poking around for reactions (and getting them). Lommy is still worrying me, and Mac is still a headache. I’m voting soon and unless someone gives me a better argument in the next fifteen minutes it’s going to be for either Kath or Legate.

Originally Posted by Kath

++ Legate

Again somewhat meta, but Kath's confusion about the BH rules is enough to give me vague second thoughts about her. Meanwhile, I'm still suspicious of Legate for a) the Lottie kill, b) his weird reaction to the Lottie kill that I agree looks rehearsed, c) his role in the Nog lynch, d) woefulness about late voting without effort to actually change it that essentially amounts to less accountability for votes, and e) general feeling of Mr Agreeableness (sorry Pitch, I know it's a trigger word ) or something not quite right - I recall innocent Legate being bigger on grand theories and generally giving more of an active vibe rather than mournful witness of unfolding last-minute chaos.

Okay, with that last post, maybe she didn't dream of Kath after all.

Brinn's guesses for Greenie dreams:

Night 1: Lottie
Night 2: Shasta
Night 3: Legate

If that's right, then it makes me feel good about Shasta. Unfortunately that would mean her other dreams are dead which isn't as helpful (hopefully we can get an idea of her Night 4 dream with toDay's medium vote).

It's possible she dreamt of Kath, but I find it less likely. Still - it doesn't make Kath look very good since she did suspect her for two straight Days. Could the wolves have worried that Greenie dreamed of two wolves? I will need to take a look at Kath's posts along with Legate, though that will need to wait for a few hours at least.

[Rikae]

Day 1 defends Nilp#37
#98 Kath's argument about Huin was odd #98, flip-flopping on Nilp
#136 Questions Pitch about his comments on Nilp being an easy target
Votes for Pitch:

Originally Posted by Greenie

Out of the ones I mentioned earlier, I'm most comfortable voting for him. Too tired to think this any further so crossing fingers and toes instead!

Not much here on Day one, nothing really standing out as dreamish … guessing she dreamed an innocent. Possibly, Nilp.

Day 2:

#227*

Originally Posted by Green

we have to consider the possibility of*Legate*being a wolf. Reading through yesterDay before knowing*Lottie's role, I thought her vote for*Legate*was strange and the reasoning for it seemed somewhat contrived – if*Legate*being wishy-washy and using long words was an indicator, he’d be a wolf every time.

Originally Posted by Green

I'm glad to see more of*Nilp*and*Mac*toDay. I get a somewhat better feeling of*Nilp*now, and*Mac*worries me a little but I'm trying to be sensible about it given how badly things went last time this happened!

#248 analyzes Huin voters. Makes points for and against each, concludes:

Originally Posted by Greenie

Overall? I’d be surprised if there isn’t a wolf on this list.*Nog*and*Kath*look like the most obvious candidates, but almost too obvious to be true.*Rikae*makes me uneasy (admittedly they always do) but there’s less of an argument to back it, and I don’t think*Shasta’s vote tells us much either way given its timing.

#247 Nog is acting weird

#251

Originally Posted by Greenie

I read that as frustrated*Nog*overreacting to a theory that incriminates him - and conveniently implying anyone who suspects him is a wolf.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Overall, reading*Legate's posts made me feel somewhat better about him - especially the last bit about actively discrediting an argument that would work in his defence

#262

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm currently most uneasy about*Nog*and*Kath, though worry they are both almost too textbook-wolves to actually be wolves. Still wary of*Pitchwife, especially given how he's managed to slip under my radar toDay. Also somewhat wary of*Rikae*and*Brinn, and flip-flopping on*Legate*and*Mac.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Lommy*and*Sally*are securely under my radar, and while*Sally*is understandable,*Lommy*is a bit alarming as she's had a few moderately long posts.

I felt good about*Shasta*yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too.*Nilp*seems more innocent toDay, or maybe it's just that he stopped trying to lynch himself.**I'm also leaning innocent on*BG*and to some extent*Form*(although he does give off potential Cobbler vibes).

Really still not looking like she's dreamt any wolves – grouping Legate in with known innocent Nog at this point. Perhaps Nilp, and Shasta on night 1?

#268 votes for Kath, based on her case against Hui.

#356 Questioning Mac for being convinced Form is a wolf – specifically, based on him not being packmates with Kath. Definitely get the feeling she knows one of Mac, Kath or Form's roles at this point and is going from there.

Also criticizes Sally's reasoning on Form. Yeah, her starting point again is Form's innocence. He would have made sense as a dream, too.

Also, finding Legate's concern about a Kathwagon suspicious, and accuses him of handwashing for his “last minute votes” thing. Definitely looks like she dreamed him the previous night, perhaps Form on one of the earlier nights?

#360 continues building case against Legate

#429

Originally Posted by Green

Finally, I like that*Rikae*and*Shasta*are back and I think they both sound like their innocent selves poking around for reactions (and getting them).

If she dreamt Shasta she probably dreamt me too.

Possible dreams:
Night 1 & 2 some combo of Form, Nilp, Shasta, me
Night 3: Legate

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

WHOA.

I mean, I had Greenie pegged as a gifted, but I assumed ranger. Apparently the wolves noticed something I didn't.

And nicely done, my beloved! I'm proud of you! Now do it again tomorrow and we're halfway there!

Which beloved, and who is "we"?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Which beloved, and who is "we"?

I'm guessing beloved = BH = Nilp

And I would presume she meant the village. Two wolves = halfway there.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm guessing beloved = BH = Nilp

And I would presume she meant the village. Two wolves = halfway there.

Except that Nilp can't do it again toMorrow, but the wolves can "do it again" in the sense of killing another gifted. And "beloved" could be any of several people, with Nilp as cover.
It just strikes me as the kind of thing a baddie might say for their own amusement - playing with fire - when they feel like victory is close.

Another thing: I realized I've been thinking of Lommy as innocentish all this time without any solid reason, and, reading back through her posts quickly, I was struck by how it all had this light, cheerful vibe, dancing around on the surface of things, talking a lot about game mechanics and other not-directly-productive stuff, those VERY easy votes. Why haven't I been considering her a possible wolf? She's been acting like a classic careful wolf!

[Brinniel]

A Wall of Text (don't worry, it's mostly just quotes).

Day 1

Originally Posted by Legate

I agree on the second, but I actually think Kath acts exactly the same as in the last game, and was about to say how nice it is that she posts stuff that seems sensible... until I remembered that back there she was a Wolf (and I did not suspect her at all exactly because she posted sensible). So in this case, I rather feel like I should raise my alert threshold on her and I will be watching her.

Hmm...could go either way here.

Originally Posted by Legate

A Little Green - nothing suspicious thus far, sensible posts
Blind Guardian - very easy posting with the "I'm jumping on Kath's vote and just adding one of my own to it". Hoping to see more from them, might get a better picture after an actual vote.
Brinniel - only a few posts, nothing that stood out, aside from that she also seemed to discuss some of the WW tactics in a manner that made me wonder whether she had discussed it at Night with someone, but that's about it.
Formendacil - see above. Probably made me wary the most, but I would very much like to see some more posting from him to make a more three-dimensional picture.
Huinesoron - like I said, as of now, the fact that he's posting much more inquisitively than in the previous game seems more like an indicator of innocence to me, even though I acknowledge the possibility of otherwise.
Kath - also see what I said in my post above - posts sensibly, I guess I will just watch her more closely.
Loslote - I am not sure what to make of her "let's not lynch a Wolf" suggestion, because, I don't think even a Wolf would suggest that. A Cobbler might, perhaps.
Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.
Nogrod - I see he's compensating on not being able to talk about Kant and Marx in the previous game, but to be fair, I also, kind of, expected him to be more... controversial, perhaps, or inquisitive. (However I see this may be changing as we speak.)
Nilp - well, as I said above: the evidence is inconclusive and it could be anything. Not even the shoes at posts that Rikae pointed out seem to be in any reasonable order. It is kind of a setback that to get some read of him grounded in something more relevant, one would have to wait for his vote on Day 2. I will probably reserve my judgment for toDay to get a better read of him in the future.
Pitchwife - actually he seems to be poking around a lot too. I agree that his talk about fishskin shoes might be a Cobbler signal, otherwise he seems a bit all over the place. I'm also wary there.
Rikae - generally seems like their normal self.
sally - okay, I see that toDay wasn't seemingly the best Day, I hope she can participate in the future, so get better, sally!

But I will use this as opportunity of seeing a no-vote to say that I disapprove of no-votes and likely will crack down on anyone who does that. I can understand in this one case (and I would add "and it being Day 1" - but then I can already see more people doing it "because Day 1s are useless yadda yadda" and THAT is still the worst thing people can do, whatever their role - votes are here to give information!) But for anyone who's healthy and all, please, vote.

Shastanis Althreduin - I like his posting and actually agree on many of his points. Pretty good for now.
Thinlómien - overall innocent Lommy vibes here, nothing special.

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!

I think it less likely that evil Legate would outright declare his packmates as innocentish - which makes me feel a bit better about Rikae and Lommy in addition to Shasta. He picks up on the idea that was brought up that Pitch is a cobbler - either Pitch is a packmate or Legate probably didn't think he really was the cobbler.

Voted for Formy.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Legate

Therefore I find it more likely that the Wolves would simply opted for her as a solid, fairly innocent-seeming person with clear opinions, who therefore could be the Seer. Also perhaps her remark in the middle of the final rush that "I don't really think Hui is a Wolf" was seen as a Seer-slip after all. That actually makes sense, the more I think about it.

I do wonder if he's actually telling the truth about this decision and knew that it might implicate Legate. Or if Nog was right in that they thought Lottie dreamt Legate. I didn't think this because I didn't believe that an evil Legate would so quickly react to suspicion of him as seer behavior on Day 1, but maybe I'm wrong. If so, sorry Nogs.

Originally Posted by Legate

Green zone:

Lommy - generally seems innocentish to me, nothing that would give me Wolfy vibes.
Greenie - also nothing in particular. I may want to start paying more attention to her, because I realise she's been under my radar, but more or less reasonable posting thus far.
Brinn - same. I agree with many of her points, especially regarding BG. She's basically the Rune of this game for me.

Lemon-lime zone:

Rikae - yesterDay seemed generally like going with very rational analysis that I could essentially follow. Would like to see more from them still toDay.

Yellow zone:

Pitch - has some reasonable points, but also sometimes very strange ones. I also think I should get a better read on him, perhaps I'll review his posts when I have time. But he's nowhere near my top list of suspicious people.
Nilp - yesterDay was all over the place, toDay is very rational, systematic, overall making a lot of sense. Of course it might be a convenient tactic for a Wolf that would also enable him to gently skew the perspective - what better way to do it but in a thorough analysis - but I am so far more content with him than yesterDay.
Kath - overall posting sensibly, rationally. I am however growingly getting some uncertain vibe that there might be something fermenting underneath. I would like to see more posting from her.

Yellow but with grey questionmarks because missing content:

Shasta - where is Shasta? I absolutely want to see more from him toDay.
sally - basically ditto. Appeared, but did not really contribute thus far.

Orange zone:

Mac - there are some things in his posting that strike me as peculiar, like just now the way he so straightforwardly dismissed the possibility to glean something about Form&Nilp from yesterDay's voting. Continuing watching him.
Form - I am still not free from the suspicion I had of him yesterDay. Plus, given the setup of votes yesterDay, I am not ruling out that either he or Nilp might be Wolves who were being at some point covered for by votes of other Wolves, and he seems to me to be the more likely one. He may also be a Cobbler, which also does not rule out the above scenario, in theory.

Red Zone:

Nog - see above; yesterDay, I only thought he behaved a bit less confrontationally or inquisitively than I would expect of him, now his posting went from bad to worse. Plus his vote was also in a rather convenient position and his reasoning for Hui looks exactly like something a Wolf would be happy to pick on (and if Form is his fellow Wolf, Nog intentionally diverted attention from him towards Hui). Might be my primary vote candidate toDay.
BG - I am still suspicious about her vote yesterDay, and I still think it was the most likely Wolf-y one, however fairly straightforward. But also would like to see more about her current suspicions etc.

Okay, so there were no wolves in his red-zone. Lommy is in his green zone which makes her look better to me and to a lesser extent, Rikae. I think his packmates are hidden somewhere in the yellow/orange zones, most likely.

Votes Nogrod. Which means he was the evil link in that bandwagon. There could be another wolf that took part in the Nog lynch, but I can't imagine any more than that. If there was, my guess would be Pitch.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Legate

Mac - looking back, he was actually very "happy-go-lucky" at the start of the first Day, later got to a more analytical mode. This all happened with not so much activity. Pitch was one he suspected, ending with voting him. Seemed very convinced that Hui was "at most a Cobbler". I would not think a Wolf-Mac would make such clear statements, but then again, anything is possible.
On Day 2, he had reasonable points again. Overall, he seemed convinced about quite a few people being cobblerish at one point or another. Had some back-and-forth with Shasta that eventually ended with him accepting Shasta's clarification. Eventually went with voting Nilp out of his suspects, which I would still like to hear about.
In this light, perhaps the most incriminating part is that both his votes were in such a way that went "off the mainstream". Mac can definitely be highly individualistic, but it could also be a good cover not to get involved in anything incriminating. I am still wary of the way he sorta floats about.

Overall Nilp remains in my yellow zone for now, and I will definitely wait until when he reappears to hear more from him. Similarly, Mac remains in my orange zone.

I would like to still look back at the posts of people like Rikae and Pitchwife, who remain in my center-grey zone, or even Greenie, whom I'm overall getting good vibe about but perhaps should try to look freshly at. But somehow not sure if I will have time since this took so long... now to see if anyone posted...

His opinions of Mac are fairly safe - sort of suspecting, but not really. Could be wolf-on-wolf.

Voted for Formy which he just kind of went along with (in truth, pretty much everyone did).

On a side note: 3,000 posts. Whee!

[Brinniel]

Thoughts so far:

Most Likely Innocent*
Nilp
Shasta

More Likely Innocent*
Lommy
Rikae

More Likely a Wolf
Kath
Mac
Pitchwife
Sally

*Innocent doesn't exclude the cobbler

Well, that narrows it down. Could it be that easy that all three wolves are among my list of four? I will bet at least two of those four are wolves. Will do so more digging later. I feel like I've been so lost these past few Days, but with the events of last Night, now maybe we're getting somewhere.

[Rikae]

Agreed on most points.

Most likely innocent:
Shasta
Nilp
Kath. Why? Greenie was after her from the start. In retrospect, it doesn't look like a dream compared to how she handled Legate, but at the time, to a pack including a Kathwolf, I think it would.

Which leaves more likely wolves:
Mac
Pitch
Sally
Brinn

(apologies for lack of bolding, I'm on my phone)

[Rikae]

Edit: and Lommy on that last list. I didn't see any sign of her being a dreamed innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Which beloved, and who is "we"?

Brinn is correct. I meant Nilp, for catching a wolf in the act. Granted, it would have been better if they hadn't also gotten our seer, but still, one down is a success.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Brinn is correct. I meant Nilp, for catching a wolf in the act. Granted, it would have been better if they hadn't also gotten our seer, but still, one down is a success.

Then what do you mean by "do it again"?

[satansaloser2005]

Good to know I was right on Legate, but bad to know I was right and acted on others instead. What is the phrase? Ah, yes. "Isn't it nice to know a lot? And a little bit not."

I'm still of the solid opinion that Kath could be a wolf. I need to look at her interactions with Legate, which I'll probably do in the morning.

I can only be wrong so many times! Right? Right?

Probably being defensive here, but Rikae keeps questioning me on what, to me, seem like obvious statements. I'm not sure if it's evil or cobblery or just the way they read my posts (which I am sometimes confusing!), so I'll keep an eye on it for now and come back to that as well in the morning.

We need to be careful toDay with our lynch. Nilp bought us a Day, sure, but let's not waste it, eh? (Hint: Those of you putting me on your suspect lists are wasting it, it being our precious time.)

Out for now. Maybe back later, but I have some chores to do and will probably then go to bed.


x'd with Rikae

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Then what do you mean by "do it again"?

Again, by "do it again" I mean "trap another wolf."

Am I not explaining this correctly?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Again, by "do it again" I mean "trap another wolf."

Am I not explaining this correctly?

I hope you're just covering your tail here, and not assuming I'm too slow to understand the surface meaning of what you said.

Your cover story doesn't work. The beast hunter has one trap.

[Rikae]

I've seen it a million times - baddies can't resist the temptation to make those kinds of jokes, and I could see Sally *especially* giving it to it.

Trouble is it could be just as cobblerish as wolfish. Wolf-playing-cobbler-playing-ordoish. Nobody wants to lynch the cobbler toDay.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I've seen it a million times - baddies can't resist the temptation to make those kinds of jokes, and I could see Sally *especially* giving it to it.

Trouble is it could be just as cobblerish as wolfish. Wolf-playing-cobbler-playing-ordoish. Nobody wants to lynch the cobbler toDay.

Oh my God. I reread the rules after the narration posted and missed the part where he only got to do that once. Well....biscuits and gravy.

Nope, that's fair. Suspect away, because that was stupid of me. I totally forgot about that rule.

[Macalaure]

Formendacil, or rather, what people said about him

Day1
He pretty much got under scrutiny right away, with people forming some half-joking suspicions based on ic posts, wolf strategy, possible cobbler hints, Day1 grumpiness, and no-lynch stuff. Rereading/reskimming it, he sure made it easy to suspect him, which gives the cobbler suspicions some merit. Anyway, among the still-alive, Sally, Brinn, Pitch, Lommy, Shasta, and Rikae are the ones caught up in it, so more than half the village. I don't feel like I can tell for sure here who may have been grasping for straws to set him up and who was grasping for straws because there wasn't anything else to grasp for yet. Oddly none of the still-living ended up voting for him.


Day2
-Kath analyzes Lottie and is lead to mention a Form-Legate-Nog pack.
-Pitch agrees with BG about her bad Form gut feeling, and with Kath's idea, too, while throwing more names into the pot.
-Brinn agrees with Legate that if BG is a wolf, Form likely is not, and vice versa.
-Pitch brings up Form's gifted discussion and says that if Form or Nilp were the NW, the pack would not have come to save either.
-Lommy: if Form is a wolf, look at Nog and Kath. Also agrees with Pitch. Puts him on her list of suspects and says she's flip-flopping on him.
-Sally finds Form suspicious without giving a reason, putting him as No. 1 in her possible wolf pack list.
-Rikae has Form as vaguely suspicious.
-Pitch goes after him because of the way he worded his suspicion of Pitch and Kath. Legitimate in general, but Pitch's reaction seems a bit much.
-Shasta brings to attention that people point out BG's gifted discussion but not enough go for Form's, though he also says that wolves don't have much of a reason to in the first place. (Why point this out if you don't think it's wolfish?) Kath replies to this that she didn't notice and Pitch replies that he did.
-Pitch adds that wolves have no reason to, but cobblers do.
-Brinn adds that the NW might as well, and Shasta agrees.
-Pitch puts Form in his fourth tier of suspicion, due to cobbler suspicions, I assume.
-Lommy puts him into a very large "who knows" category, saying he doesn't sit right with her, but that it might be kneejerk. Later considers voting for him and still later does, since he's the most suspicious one among those who have votes.
-Brinn could go for him as well, says his posts look calculated. (Not sure what she means by this.)
-Pitch wanted to vote for Kath but Form's vote makes him reconsider.
-Lommy tries to steer Nog into voting for him.
-Pitch could vote for Form but rather wouldn't, since he thinks he's the cobbler.
-Brinn wants to vote for Nog but doesn't consider him feasible at this point. Form is her second choice.
-Kath votes Nilp, wants to go through Form's posts before judging him.
-Sally, too, doesn't vote Form due to cobbler suspicion.
-Shasta votes for Form without time to explain.

Not sure whether the Form-cobbler faction is more or less suspicious, honestly. None of the still living had him as their first suspect, but many considered voting him and some did. There's a lot of agreeing posts in here, which doesn't sit too well with me.


Day3
-Brinn says that she preferred Nog over Form since Form looked more like a cobbler. She analyzes BG and concludes that it doesn't look good for Form.
-Sally is the first among the still-living to actually go all out to suspect him. Didn't like that Form suspected her for being quiet. Says the Nogrod lynch may have been to save Form. She lists Kath alongside him.
-Brinn changes her mind from Form-cobbler to Form-NW.
-Shasta is the first to say that Form is suspicious for still being alive and that he's being saved.
-Rikae doesn't buy Form's vote explanation, implies they think he's a wolf.
-Lommy agrees with Brinn on Form looking suspicious due to BG, but still hesitates, and also on Form possibly being the NW. Picks up a post of Greenie on me and Form and adds that it wouldn't surprise her to see me be wolves with him.
-Nilp states that he had trusted Form but is confused about it now.
-Lommy lists him as double hmmmmm, due to not dying, posting statistics instead of opinions, and BG's suspicion.
-Brinn doesn't like Form's reaction to Nilp's reveal.
-Kath says the general suspicion about Form makes more sense now that she noticed... his Day1 post about not voting??
-Shasta lists Form as first option next to Kath, because of the traction thing - i.e. since he keeps not getting lynched.
-Rikae envisions a scenario with Form as wolf and Brinn and me innocent (which yesterDay at first struck me as a super obvious seer hint) and then speculates on packmates based on this. (And they manage to rub a whole bunch of people the wrong way which is quite amusing to read, no matter who's guilty or not in this bunch.)
-Kath went back to reading up on Form and finds a number of points against him, which each look ok on their own.
-Brinn says that Form and Pitch stick out to her, leaning Form, who she suspects to be the NW planning to foil Nilp in death. Kath will agree with this and also with that the NW should still be lynched.
-Shasta states that Rikae and Legate wanted to save both, Kath and Form.

And here come the votes:
-Kath++Form
-Sally states she still wants to lynch Form.
-Rikae++Form
-Sally++Form
-Shasta++Form
-Lommy agrees with Shasta's Form/Kath idea, though she's not sure about it. Wants to vote for Form since she's not convinced of Legate's guilt.
-Lommy++Form
-me++Form
-Legate++Form
-Brinn doesn't like that everybody is voting for Form.
-Pitch++Form, after briefly considering Legate.
-Nilp++Form
-Brinn++Form
-Lommy has heavy second thoughts after Form's testament.

Kath - ignores him at first then warms up to lynching him after others prod her to. Her one larger post about him looks ok by itself, but given that Form did do a lot of odd things, it's not too hard to fabricate for a wolf. So while on the one hand this was a very convenient way to go for her, why would wolfKath ignore him for so long at first?

Rikae - I really don't know what to make of them at all...

Sally - giving credit to her for being the first among the still-living to firmly suspect him instead cobbler stuff or him being one of many suspects. The tightness of her case is just so-so.

Shasta - two things rub me wrong pretty strongly: pointing out Form's gifted talk while one sentence later saying it's not wolfish. Very much feels like he's trying to make other people suspicious of him while washing his own hands of it. Then there his idea that Form is more suspicious because he keeps surviving, which is still nonsense to me.

Lommy - she's the only one who, while suspicious of Form, maintains a hesitant tone. A wolf might do that to not look too bad once the innocent is dead, but it feels genuine. She too though says that Form is suspicious for not dying, though.

Pitch - maintains the Form-cobbler thing for the longest time. A wolf could discuss the cobblerness of an innocent to make them look bad without accusing them of being a wolf. Interestingly, he doesn't meaningfully mention him at all on Day3.

Nilp - only says that he's confused. That's it. Yep.

Brinn - has Form high on her list pretty consistently. Said she held back because she thought him to be the cobbler, but changed her mind on Day3. Getting the feeling of an innocent, though a somewhat single-minded one.


Based on this only, I'd say roughly:

Shasta - Pitch/Kath - Rikae/Sally - Nilp - Lommy/Brinn

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Mac

Brinn - has Form high on her list pretty consistently. Said she held back because she thought him to be the cobbler, but changed her mind on Day3. Getting the feeling of an innocent, though a somewhat single-minded one.

I truly have had tunnel vision these last couple Days unfortunately. Maybe these folks with spreadsheets are doing something right, though the thought of creating spreadsheets myself makes me cringe.

Mac, I'm curious to know who you think Greenie dreamed of. Mainly because I thought Shasta seemed likely to be one of her dreams and if I'm right, that would make him innocent. However you list him as suspicious, so clearly you disagree.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

First of all, that's it, that's my trap. I'm now just a confused Ordo. And I don't know if I just drew the Ranger away from protecting Greenie.

Second, the vote list:

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold. A plus after the name indicates the Medium.)

+2238: Kath – Form (Form – 1)
+2258: Greenie – Legate (Form – 1, Legate – 1)
+2302: Rikae – Form (Form – 2, Legate – 1)
+2310: Form+ – Legate (Form – 2, Legate – 3)
+2310: Sally – Form (Form – 3, Legate – 3)
+2317: Shasta – Form (Form – 4, Legate – 3)
+2322: Lommy - Form (Form – 5, Legate – 3)
+2324: Mac - Form (Form – 6, Legate – 3)
+2327: Legate - Form (Form – 7, Legate – 3)
+2329: Pitch - Form (Form – 8, Legate – 3)
+2329: Nilp - Form (Form – 9, Legate – 3)
+2330: Brinn - Form (Form – 10, Legate – 3)

My only comment is to note that 2317 to 2329 avalanche of votes. I had in my notes: 'Bet my chances of rolling Merlin this Saturday that at least two of those five are wolves. Also, when are we lynching Legate?'

Okay, so I got Legate (at the cost of our most important villager), but my nose tells me there's still at least one more baddie among Shasta, Lommy, Mac, and Pitch.

Now off to lunch and earn my paycheck for the day. Hope to be back posting in six or so hours.

PS. To the Dead thread, I'm endorsing Mac's list. And despite being on my list, this line:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.

makes me want to trust you. Please don't be a Wolf.

PPS. Dominos, rolling balls, and strings? Classic Rube-Goldberg, Boromod.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The Wolves have an option of picking who gets killed by my trap. Now, I can see some reason why the pack chose Legate (he's already under heavy suspicion), why not let the Nightmare Wolf start using their powers?

I think this means our Nightmare Wolf wasn't under much of a suspicion, and letting them die to my trap is giving away a baddie 'for free', so to speak.

[Brinniel]

This post includes any quotes of living players that talk about/interact with Legate (excluding Nilp whom I will presume is the BH as nothing has led me to think otherwise).

Day 1

Originally Posted by Lommy

Under my radar so far - Legate, Mac, Pitch, Brinn

Originally Posted by Lommy

Agreed with Nogrod re: Legate's point about wolf and cobbler quietness correlating not making any sense.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Actually, Legate's last post pinged my radar. Sounded very careful and practiced. Too late in the Day to vote him, probably, but I want to take a look at him for toMorrow.

Added this quote because I forgot about this post. Which reiterates my theory that the wolves didn't kill Lottie because she was a seer who already dreamed him, but because they thought she would.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't get Legate about quiet wolves & cobbler either - at least for the latter, isn't being quiet kind of the contrary of their job description, i.e. drawing attention from the wolves?

So other than Lommy and Pitch agreeing that Legate's comment "But if we do have a quiet Cobbler, the WWs themselves may also be less bold." didn't make sense, there is no other mention of our known wolf. Inconclusive.

Day 2

Originally Posted by Kath on Lottie's death

Could be a ploy from a Form-Legate-Nog wolf-pack (but please, please, no to that). If she's the Seer and had dreamt one of them it's so early in the game it's worth the risk, and if she's not the Seer they could claim set-up.

Originally Posted by Mac

I think Legate was the only one to mention me at all yesterDay, so he deserves a reply. I was kind of stressed out on Day1 and couldn't participate as much as I wanted to. I do have every intention to do better toDay. Still, "almost zero content" is harsh. Not entirely inaccurate at that point, but still harsh.

Originally Posted by Mac

If the wolves thought she was the seer, it would obviously point to Legate, but I don't see it.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...

Originally Posted by Mac

Am I paranoid or does Legate's #228 read like a paraphrase of my #222 with a higher word count?

Originally Posted by Lommy

For the record, those who DON'T sound particularly innocent to me are:

Brinniel
Formendacil
Legate of Amon Lanc
Nogrod
satansaloser2005

and I'm likely to vote one of them toDay. The one who stands out to me the most is probably Nogrod, who seems to be contrivedly making mountains out of molehills (yes, I know we don't have much to go on, but there's a fabricated undertone to his speculations) and a little tense too. I know he prefers to be innocent so being a wolf could totally make him act like this.

Legate, Sally, and Brinn I'd all like to hear more from.

Originally Posted by Rikae

If I were a wolf-Legate, her shift at last minute would certainly have been alarming, but my likely conclusion would be either she's a) a seer who hasn't dreamt me yet but is likely to, or b) a perceptive ordo. In the first case I'd be as good as dead, in the latter, my best chance of survival would be to not kill her immediately. I would see little harm in letting her live another day. for observation, on the off chance it was b) and I'd get out of it unscathed.

I'm really not buying (lots of that going on, is this a village meeting or a market?) Nog's theory that Lottie would have looked like a seer who dreamed Legate already. If she wanted to hint, she'd have been way more subtle, not ignored him all day and then painted a big target on herself at deadline.

Now, Nog is another matter. If I were a Nogwolf, there would be every reason to kill Lottie, both as a potential seer and as someone the village was likely to treat as a semi-known innocent toDay, and little reason not to, as it doesn't draw attention to him nearly as dramatically as to Legate.

Of course this mostly applies to any other wolf as well. I'm going to need to go back and look at what Lottie said about those she found innocentish, I think.

But for now, -1 wolf point to Legate, +1 wolf point to Nogrod.

For the record, I think they were spot on with scenario A in the first paragraph. Doesn't necessarily indicate their role either way.

Originally Posted by Sally

Legate: Yellow light in that I have NO impression and that bothers me

This feels fishy to me.

Originally Posted by Sally

I hate to just repeat someone else, but I think this is one of the things about Legate that makes me uncomfortable this game. He made some good points, but someone else had made them first, so he's able to say the same thing while also being safer and less likely to be attacked for saying it.

This makes me think that its less likely Mac and Sally are in a pack together. Would two wolves openly agree on suspicion against a packmate?

Originally Posted by Mac

Legate - Something feels off about him.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I wanted to make a list, but I could more or less just copypaste Legate's. I don't know what to make of that (in regards to how I feel about Legate's innocence). It's kinda creepy.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Actually, trying to arrange my impressions into a scale, suspicion increasing top -> down:
Lommy/Greenie/Brinn
Rikae/Mac
Legate/Shasta/BG
Form/Nilp
Nog/Kath

Originally Posted by Lommy

Legate - I find him making a lot of sense but also he seems more passive and less confrontational than last time when he was an ordo and I think he usually does flow more under the radar when a wolf

Originally Posted by Lommy

PS. Legate's latest post is AGAIN creepily similar to my own thinking. Maybe it makes me feel a bit better about him?

Originally Posted by Brinn in response to Lommy's analysis of Legate

I have noticed that he has been a bit quieter than what I've normally seen from him. I've been in agreement with him on a lot of things, but of course that doesn't mean he isn't evil. Legate is not someone I'd care to see lynched toDay, but I think he does gander a closer look toMorrow.

Yes, to be fair, I'm including myself in the quotes.

Conclusions: There were a bunch of psuedo-suspicions of Legate that may be wolf-on-wolf as no one follows through on them. Sally or Mac feel the most sinister, followed by Pitch.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Mac

Legate -> Nogrod - x'ed with Rikae. Nog had been over him all day, so this vote seems understandable, if a bit knee-jerk. I don't think either Rikae or Legate expected their vote to take off like it did.

Originally Posted by Sally

I'd also consider a lynch of Legate or Mac.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I took a look through Legate's posts since I said I would. His posting seems less frequent than last game, but I like the content of his posts, probably because I agree with a lot of it. I don't really buy into Nogrod's theory that Lottie died because the wolves thought she dreamed of an evil Legate. Sure it's possible, but I still find it more likely that they thought her a seer that dreamed of Hui. Her suspicion of Legate came late in the Day, and I think a Legatewolf would more likely risk another Day than immediately kill her as a possible seer.

I am now going to sound reactionary because from what I've read toDay I am concerned about Greenie. As I'm her top suspect, that may well be because she's trying to get me lynched, but actually it was what she said to Legate that made me look again.

This just seemed a little harsh! Last minute voting is often an issue and I just don't recall her being so up in arms over it.

How about a Greenie-Legate-Nilp + someone else wolf pack. I've nothing to back that up but I can imagine the logic vs kamikaze battles would be intense.

Interesting how she defends Legate's post, then proceeds to list him in a possible wolfpack.

Originally Posted by Mac

He latched on to the "if the wolves thought Lottie was the seer then why is Mac still alive" thing that Nog brought up (though Nilp says he thought of it on his own), and this was his reason for suspecting me (while Nog didn't take it that far). I thought the reason was bad and suspected him in turn.
Not the most solid of suspicions, and reflecting I might have gotten carried away by being annoyed by it, but it was not one bit random and I don't know how you got that impression.

Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.

Hmm... this exchange makes me feel a little better about Mac.

Originally Posted by Mac

I feel like I'm confusing myself right now and don't have a clear picture. I'm seeing fangs all over Legate's last post and I can't even begin to wrap my mind around Nilp right now.

Again, feeling better about him here.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I agree with whoever said Rikae and Legate probably didn't expect their votes to take off like that - unless Form and Kath are BOTH wolves, introducing a last minute wagon for an innocent who'd been widely suspected isn't the most likely wolf move.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Greenie and Legate - I find myself agreeing with both of them a lot, which makes me inclined to trust them, even though I'm not sure that's smart. I don't know what to think of either of their relation to Kath - both Greenie's strong suspicion that I don't necessarily agree with and Legate's defensiveness of Kath stand out to me as midlly weird.

Originally Posted by Mac

No idea:
Legate - still meaning to get to him

After his previous opinion on Legate, he seems to slightly retreat here. If I were using a Rikae point system, this would be a -1.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Greenie had points about Lommy and Legate that I liked

Originally Posted by Rikae

Legate - Kept Form in the running Day 1 with his 3rd vote. Reasoning and vote look innocentish.

I have doubts that an evil Rikae would call their packmate innocentish.

Originally Posted by Lommy

As for Rikae-Legate-Form-Kath - that would be a pretty epic wolf pack hiding almost in plain sight. Not impossible, but I'm a bit hesitant to jump on a big conclusion like that. I haven't followed all their interactions well enough but it doesn't sound implausible.

Originally Posted by Mac

I can definitely live with a Form lynching, though I'd prefer Pitch. I'd rather have Legate stay alive for at least one more day.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I would prefer to vote Form toDay. Not too covinced about Legate's guilt.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I think this is a good point. I mentioned before that I like the content of Legate's posts (regarding suspicions and such), however he also seems quieter and more reserved than normal. I still don't think the wolves killed Lottie suspecting she was a seer who dreamed of Legate because Hui seems like the more likely dream were she the seer. However, a wolf pack that includes Legate could've killed her for the latter reason even knowing that it could implicate Legate.

That is not enough reason for me to want to vote Legate toDay, but maybe I need to look at him toMorrow (again).

Originally Posted by Pitch

I keep wondering about the plausibility of a Rikae-Legate-Kath-Form pack. As for Rikae, I'm obviously biased right now, so I'd like to re-evaluate toMorrow. Kath has suddenly started to make possibly innocent sense toDay, I hope this continues. I'm really torn between Legate and Form, but my suspicion of Form is older and stronger.

Okay, Day 3 had even more pseudo-suspicion of Legate without it turning into anything. I think if he hadn't been trapped last Night, the suspicion would've legitimately turned into something (especially with the seer's death).

Based on this, I'm thinking maybe a Pitch/Sally/Kath pack or alternatively a Pitch/Mac/Kath pack. But I need to look at what these players have said about each other to get a bigger picture (if I have time tomorrow as it's late). For one, I'm not entirely positive how likely a Pitch/Kath combo actually is.

If there are NOT three wolves out of the four that I listed above, I would guess that the outlier is Lommy.

Anyway, Pitch and Sally are my biggest suspects right now.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.

This seems really logical and a good idea.

Originally Posted by Brinn

For one, I'm not entirely positive how likely a Pitch/Kath combo actually is.

I'm quoting Brinn, but actually quite a few people keep talking about a Pitch/Kath combo. I'd love this to be explained because I've no idea what it's meant to be.

[Pitchwife]

So we actually had a Greenseer? Is this Middle-earth or Westeros?

Got to say this comes as a surprise in more than one way. I mean, I had a strong innocent impression from her posts, but nothing particularly seerish; makes me wonder what the wolves noticed - or Nilp, for that matter, since it seems he actually was the BH.

Also, since the wolves now consistently killed people for suspecting Legate three Nights in a row, I'm surprised - disappointed really - he wasn't the NW. Why incriminate a packmate so heavily if you have nothing special to gain by his death?

On another note, after Rikae's rather notable Seer hints yesterDay, I'm rather surprised the wolves left them alone and went for Greenie instead, unless of course Rikae is one themself. I mean, it's not impossible that Rikae was trying to set themself up as a decoy to distract from the real Seer, as they claim, but at the same time those hints could have been laid in preparation for a fake reveal to draw out the Seer toDay, and at the very least they could have drawn the Ranger's protection from the real Seer. So I must say I don't like their prophylactic apology in their first post toDay.

[Kath]

A look at Legate:

Originally Posted by Legate

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!

From Day 1. Well Lottie = innocent, Nilp I am assuming = BH, Form = innocent, BG = innocent. So the only person left there is Pitch. Would Legate hide a wolf amongst a list of innocents? I can't see why not. Also, there was a lot of Cobbler talk from Legate in hindsight as opposed to wolf talk. He convinces himself Form is a Cobbler then votes Form because he is more suspicious than Hui by default of being a Cobbler. Oh blast, how didn't we spot this:

Originally Posted by Legate

It is possible he might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.

It can only be by default if you know that Hui is innocent ... which Legate did!

Day 2
Exonerates Shasta's vote for Hui by saying it's impossible to tell how the Hui-wagon would go. Soft defend. Says Rikae's vote would only be significant if Form was a wolf, which he now know he wasn't, so could be setting up a defence. Begins to push suspicion of Nog here based on his vote. Not sure what he was concluding about my vote.

Originally Posted by Legate

Otherwise, to me personally, the most suspicious votes seem to be Pitch's, which was the most throwaway thing ever and I would like to hear more reasoning for it, and BG's, which I still consider it like riding the coattails of Hui's. That would, however, make sense only if Form was not a Wolf. Or in other words, if BG is a Wolf, Form is likely not, and vice versa. Something to keep in mind.

Setting up a handy x relies on y that it turns out was based on two innocents. So he knew BG and Form were innocent and again pops Pitch's name in with that list.

Says Mac is downplaying the likelihood of Form and Nilp being wolves. Then leaps on Nog.

Summary of list post:
Good = Lommy, Greenie ( known innocent), Brinn, Rikae
Middle = Pitch, Nilp (assumed BH), Kath, Shasta, sally
Bad = Mac, Form (known innocent), Nog (known innocent), BG (known innocent)

So at a guess, Mac could be a wolf as Legate would probably be willing to name a fellow lupine as a top suspect. Also, at this point, I don't think Mac was even near a potential lynch candidate for most of the village, so it's a pretty safe suspicion. And then one from the middle - so to me that's Pitch, Shasta, sally. And one from the good - so Lommy, Brinn or Rikae.

Well that reeeeally narrowed things down.

Hmm, right after that, he revises his list to make Shasta and sally more suspicious.

Day 3
Pushes at Rikae and Pitch for their votes. So I'd say maybe only one of these two would be wolfy. Also starts to connect Mac and Nilp as a pairing. Jumps on Form at this point.

Looks at Mac and decides it could go either way.

Originally Posted by Legate

The only thing that still puzzles me is the accusation of Mac he has made; if Nilp's innocent, that was dangerous at the very least.

In Nilp's previous post, he downgraded Mac from top suspect to 6th/7th, so this doesn't actually make any sense. Sensitive to mentions of Mac because ... Mac's a fellow wolf?

New list (summarised - and I underlined movers):
Good = Lommy, Brinn (previously was Lommy, Greenie, Brinn, Rikae)
Middle = Greenie, Kath, Pitch, Rikae, Shasta (previously was Pitch, Nilp, Kath, Shasta, sally)
Bad = sally, Mac, Form (previously was Mac, Form, Nog, BG)

So I'd say only one of sally and Mac was a wolf then, as they're both in the red there.

Mac, sally, Rikae are standing out the most to me here. Followed by Shasta and Pitch. Which probably means the remaining wolves are Lommy, Brinn and flipping Nilp given how wrong I've been all game.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

makes me wonder what the wolves noticed - or Nilp, for that matter, since it seems he actually was the BH.

As for me, since I'd set the trap around my house the DAY before, I simply went with the living villager who hadn't voted for Form. No deeper reason.

(I was more disappointed with my DAY 1 choice: it was down to Lottie or Bryn [sic], and guess who I chose.)

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Mac, I'm curious to know who you think Greenie dreamed of. Mainly because I thought Shasta seemed likely to be one of her dreams and if I'm right, that would make him innocent. However you list him as suspicious, so clearly you disagree.

Gonna try to keep this concise and I have to admit, I started this hoping I would not find Shasta to be innocent. Biased? Me? Nah.

All quotes by Greenie:


Day1

So far I like what I've seen of Shasta, Lommy, Rikae and Mac. Not alarmed about Lottie.

Night1 most likely one of these, with Lottie the most likely.


Day2

I'm glad to see more of Nilp and Mac toDay. I get a somewhat better feeling of Nilp now, and Mac worries me a little

Not me for Night1 or 2. Nilp for Night2 possible.

I’m notoriously bad at reading Rikae, and this could go either way

And not Rikae for Night1 or 2.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too.

Doesn't necessarily sound like she dreamt of Shasta Night1 or 2 either.

She votes Kath in the end, but it feels like suspicion, not knowledge.


Day3

Her list helps a lot.
not dreamt of: Brinn, Form, me, Pitch, Sally, Lommy
possible wolf: Kath, Legate
possible innocent: Nilp, Rikae, Shasta

Again somewhat meta, but Kath's confusion about the BH rules is enough to give me vague second thoughts about her.

Doesn't sound like she dreamt of Kath.


Ergo:

Night1: probably Lottie, maybe Shasta
Night2: probably Nilp, maaybe Rikae?
Night3: Legate

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Hmm... this exchange makes me feel a little better about Mac.

That quote got messed up. I actually said:

Originally Posted by me

I have to echo Greenie here, this doesn't make sense.
-The votes for Kath were not unexpected, Greenie's at any rate was predictable.
-The general suspicion of Nogrod seemed to lessen at the time.
-If the wolves find it necessary to start a pre-emptive(!) bandwaggon to save a fellow, they will usually decide that instead it's time for that fellow to catch a bus. Especially with a large pack and on Day2.

[Brinniel]

Whoops, thanks for correcting that Mac. My copy/paste got messed up there.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Mac

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

Exactly that.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

I had been putting the required number towards the end of the narrations, but I see in my rush yesterday I forgot.

Anyway, someone will need 4 votes from the dead today for there to be a Medium.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

To add to Mac's post, if the good side agrees to vote for no one, they could just leave someone to vote someone else in case Legate votes for someone (since a tie would mean no Medium).

(That's assuming I understand it correctly that the majority+ vote is needed only to declare someone a Medium immediately, and not the sine qua non to having a Medium at all.)

EDIT: And as soon I hit post:

If there is a tie, or no one reached the threshold no Medium is chosen on that day. (The Rules, emphasis mine)

I show my illiteracy.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I had been putting the required number towards the end of the narrations, but I see in my rush yesterday I forgot.

Anyway, someone will need 4 votes from the dead today for there to be a Medium.

Ah, so baddie-meddling is basically impossible. Thanks.

I have a question too: is this meant to be an indication of Greenie's dream last night, or is it just flavor?

Originally Posted by Boro

The wolves had their next target and were closing in on Greenie's house. She was in the middle of a disturbing vision. She clearly saw 1 villager's face and the face turned into a horrible, furry werewolf. There were 3 other shadowy figures in the vision but she could not make them out

[Macalaure]

I saw the argument that "If Kath is a wolf, why didn't they kill Greenie sooner?" and it got me thinking. Given that the pack seemed very sensitive to mentions of Legate, both Lottie and Greenie primarily died for that, they didn't seem to show the same concern for Kath.

The night in question is Night 3, where they picked BG. Maybe they were reeally confident they found a slipping seer? Maybe they thought Greenie's suspicion of Kath didn't have a seerish vibe to it?

Rereading BG again, her list of wolves had two known innocents (Form and Nog, both prominently), one known wolf (Legate), one semi-known innocent (Nilp), and one unknown (Sally) on it. Maybe they thought they were getting a seer who hadn't dreamt of a wolf yet, which sure is tempting.

I'm now imagining a scenario where Legate was super nervous and paranoid all the way through every single night and convinced the pack to go for whoever suspected him each time.

But yeah, the idea pretty much hinges on what exactly the wolves thought about BG, and we can't know that.

Originally Posted by Pitch

On another note, after Rikae's rather notable Seer hints yesterDay, I'm rather surprised the wolves left them alone

Probably because they treated Form like a dreamt-of wolf.

[satansaloser2005]

I took the narration to imply she saw Legate, but now I'm curious as well.

Good morning! I spent the night burying my stupidity and will hopefully be all better now. Oy ve.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ah, so baddie-meddling is basically impossible. Thanks.

I have a question too: is this meant to be an indication of Greenie's dream last night, or is it just flavor?

My attempt at flavor. I enjoy modding games and dabbled a little in the RPing on the 'Downs, but writing has never really piqued my interests. Basically I miss the games I modded and Fea never had to do much convincing to write the narrations for me. I tried to drag her out of retirement for a guest-written narration, but too much going on and she isn't able to follow along.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Form being innocent is a mind-boggle. Sorry, Form. I'm gonna have to do a major recalibration today.

[Macalaure]

Greenie did still get her Night4 dream, though, right?