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09-19-2010, 02:03 PM | #481 |
Beloved Shadow
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REP VOTING DAY 1:
Sally-->Phantom Lottie-->Phantom (2) Rune-->Lommie Greenie-->Nerwen Nog-->Izzy Mira-->Phantom (3) Boro-->Wilwa Lommie-->Greenie Steve-->Greenie (2) Dun-->Boro Shasta-->Izzy (2) Legate-->Nerwen (2) Cel-->Foley Phantom-->Cel Nerwen-->Lommie (2) Wilwa-->Lommie (3) Foley-->Cel (2) Izzy-->Wilwa (2) REP VOTING DAY 2: Nerwen-->Shasta Rune-->Steve Green-->Steve (2) Nog-->Legate Steve-->Legate (2) Lommy-->Nog Inzil-->Shasta (2) Wilwa-->Foley Legate-->Foley (2) Shasta-->Nerwen Sally-->Nog (2) Phantom-->Legate (3) ******************************* LYNCH VOTING DAY 1: Lommy-->Lottie (3) Green-->Sally (2) Nerwen-->Sally (3) Nerwen-->Boro (1) Celuien-->Boro (3) Wilwa-->Sally (4) Wilwa-->Lottie (4) Izzy-->Lottie (6) ******************************* And now, some observations- (1) I'm not sure I entirely understand the Rep vote of Legate today. From beginning to end of this day he generally seems to believe I am an Orc, and yet he handed his vote to Foley who has attacked no one other than me this game. Not to mention that she didn't put in an appearance yesterday and said she would barely be around today, and so really, how much time does that give her to catch up on reading and change her opinions? I am not trying to be insulting and say that Foley is predictable and a tool to be used (she seems quite independent), but in this specific situation where she was so very very against me yesterday and will have little time to change her views today, I can't help but suspect she's being taken advantage of here. And then when she votes me (if I'm lynched) Legate can act all sad and justified, "See, I was right, he was innocent, and I didn't vote for him," and pretend that he had nothing to do with killing me. (2) Same with Wilwa naturally, who also voted for Foley. From what I've seen she hasn't exactly been after me today. She's been more wishy-washy, sort of the old "I can see your point about how he might not be trustworthy" but then "Oh but this doesn't make him look bad". About the only certain thing I saw from her regarding me is that she didn't want to make me a Rep. But to vote for Foley given her very obvious leanings and time restraints- I've got to think Wilwa actually wants me dead. (3) If Sally is innocent, then the lynch voting from yesterday... Celuien and Green would be the more obvious votes to save Lottie, while Nerwen and Wilwa would be the careful and subtle votes to save Lottie. Green straight up tossed out the second one of the duo (Sally-Lottie), while Celuien seeing a chance to lynch Boro put him into a tie for the lead. Nerwen put Sally into a tie with Lottie and then used her other vote to nudge up Boro (his first vote)- a move much less obvious than tossing two votes onto one of them. Then Wilwa was perhaps the most calculating of all. Had she used both votes on Sally, it still would not have put Lottie out of lynching, as Izzy could've tied them and I believe had stated at that stage that she favored lynching Lottie, not to mention that I was around and had listed Sally (but not Lottie) on my list of people I definitely did not want to lynch, and so Wilwa would have assumed that if I wished to avoid a double lynch I would've lynche Lottie ahead of Sally. Also, giving them each only one vote also kept the door open for the double lynch with Boro, as I had indeed been shopping him as a candidate. Wow... when I think about this and write it out, Wilwa's vote, if she's a SoE, looks downright brilliant given the situation.
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09-19-2010, 02:07 PM | #482 | |
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Quote:
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09-19-2010, 02:08 PM | #483 | |||||
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Nerwen's theory about phorc being the OoUA, offering his help to Lottie, has merit, I think. I was considering him being the OoUA anyway. I do wonder, though, why Phantom would attach himself so early on to Lottie, of all people, if this theory is correct. Unless Lottie slipped hideously early that she was evil and no one but Phantom caught it. Just seems weird.
#447 - Legate's notion about analyzing voting patterns is a good one and well thought-out, I think. However, this sentence - Quote:
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#464 - I don't like how Sally seems to be trying to take credit for the Lottie lynch early in this post. It reads like "Look guys, I thought Lottie was evil just as much as you guys did, honest!" This point here, though, makes sense to me - [quote=Sally]Greenie says she voted Nerwen because she is “independent-minded and clever” and says that putting a good Nerwen in charge is a good choice, while putting an evil Nerwen in charge can show us more about her character; either way (re: Nerwen’s alignment) Greenie is sure that voting Nerwen is a good idea. What concerns me here is that this is exactly the reasoning that I gave for Phantom. Greenie has been accusatory of me for my vote, yet hers was for the same reasons (though granted with more “evidence” behind it).[quote] Greenie, do you have a comment? Oh, I see you answered this very thing in #468. Hmm. This reply makes sense, but I'm not sure if it really has to do with Sally's point. #469 is more of Nogrod telling everyone "Back off from Phantom and Sally, guys, the Seer will check them, nothing to see here!" Curiouser and curiouser. He'd rather have them checked than lynch either one, and I don't see any real reason for that to be the case. We lynch those who are suspicious - that's how the game is played. Is there some kind of boundary line that I missed, where if someone is too suspicious they should be Seer-dreamt instead of lynched, just to be sure? I'm confused. Quote:
And stop hinting that you're the Seer. I'm virtually positive you're not. It looks more like you're planning a fake-reveal as an Elf/OoUA. Edit; X'ed with Phorc and Sally.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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09-19-2010, 02:12 PM | #484 |
Werewolf Psychic
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Phantom-
Re (1) - If all this is the case, why did you vote for Legate for representative?
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
09-19-2010, 02:13 PM | #485 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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phantom: stop that "I'm the known orc and everyone's having a conspiracy to lynch me" -parade, please.
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09-19-2010, 02:23 PM | #486 |
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Also, all this suspicion of Wilwa has the feel of a bandwagon to it. Especially after Phantom hopped on (I was going to say Sally as well but I think she's actually been suspecting the Muffin most of the day). I probably won't be voting her today. Ideally I'd like to lynch Sally, but I don't think Legate and Nogrod are going to go for it, and to beat their five (should they choose to vote together), Eonwe, Folwren, and myself would all have to vote the same way. I think Eonwe was in the "Lottie being an elf makes Sally look better" camp, and it's looking like Folwren may not be here to vote at all, so... Hm. I need to think.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
09-19-2010, 02:26 PM | #487 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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Quote:
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(edit: missing line)
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09-19-2010, 02:40 PM | #488 | |
Beloved Shadow
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Quote:
Yes, I realize that leap may be partly flawed due to the "If you're looking at something already expecting or wanting to find guilt/innocence you WILL find it", but that does not negate the logic of my breakdown of her voting. Yes, in my suspecting of her Rep vote I may be erring on the side of self-importance, but my lynch vote breakdown looks quite good to me.
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09-19-2010, 02:42 PM | #489 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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So rather than say: x is bandwagoning, please tell me where the stated suspicion goes wrong. If we who think her suspicious are missing an important point, then please share it so that we don't lynch an innocent. X'd with tp
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09-19-2010, 02:50 PM | #490 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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So I have a Glirdanpie visiting me at the moment, but he'll be returning to his secret lair shortly. Once I get back I will be able to contribute more for the rest of the day.
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09-19-2010, 02:53 PM | #491 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Btw. Shasta - and ayone not thinking about this before, how about you really considered this...
Quote:
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09-19-2010, 03:10 PM | #492 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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++ Wilwa ++
Mainly because of what I said in #469. In short: Her actions as a decent orc do not make a lot of sense (she said she would prefer lynching Lottie but ended up sharing the votes between Lottie & Sally) - and she sneaked away leaving the stage for the others - possibly elves (an orc W wouldn't have known who Izzy & tp were) - to act on at such a crucial moment of a threeway tie (and only 25 minutes to the DL). If she is an elf her actions make a lot of sense: tactical vote-choice in a desperate situation: she couldn't vote for Boro without looking very suspicious, just trying to save Lottie might backfire as tp would save Sally if he could, and actually just voting Lottie would mean killing a mate. Also skipping away from the last minutes looks like elvish to me, meaning she didn't want to be forced to make the final choice. Just look above how tough the situation would have been.
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09-19-2010, 03:18 PM | #493 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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No one around, so time to home and bed then.
All the sense and sensibility to you reps!
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09-19-2010, 03:19 PM | #494 |
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*pops in*
Headache and internet troubles (one seemingly a side effect yet from earlier this week, the other just hateful routers) so I'm going to be gone for a bit. I'm hoping to be back, but certainly don't depend on it, as I can't promise my return. *pops out* P.S. Nog, go to bed! <3
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09-19-2010, 03:48 PM | #495 | |
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Quote:
Aside from that, you are getting rather paranoid (the second paraghraph). If I wanted to lynch you, I could have done so by myself anyway. Not that, actually, I didn't mean your personal temper but, well, I don't know what is the word for it in English. Basically the mood of behavior in which you are during the game. Now... I have re-read the posts of Cel, Rune, Inzil and Wilwa and after considering them, I am thinking of letting Rune be for toDay, also because it anyway does not seem that he would be getting any lynch-support. Now looking at his posts with a bit of distance, what concerns me the most is that he actually does not seem to be too conflict-y, not meddling himself much into the affairs, rather dipping his fingers and staying sort of back, or that's the feeling I get. But I actually became even more interested in seeing him actually vote sometime (depending what the situation is, though, and if he does not make me suspect him more). I do not agree with him on many things, but that is not a problem. I just have a few questionmarks hovering over his motives. That is actually the bigger problem in Celuien's case. She has indeed said very little this far, but still even with her few posts, and mainly her votes, she remains a suspect to me. Then again, she really has not showed this far, in which case I would prefer her to at least respond or something. Inzil is enigmatic, he actually seems rather commited, e.g. his change in suspicion of wilwa after her votes looks genuine, but at points the subjects he focuses on are more questionable. Lastly, wilwa has said some things I would echo, but again some which make me uneasy or asking about her motives, and last of all her votes with the bit of alibistic tone. We'd know a lot more about her if we knew sally's role, but then, guess that will have to wait (and I am not for lynching sally just in order to learn more, although her death would surely be enlightening). Shall be around for a while yet. This will be a difficult voting in the end, actually. EDIT: x-ed with Nog, his vote and sally
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09-19-2010, 04:30 PM | #496 |
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All right, I have been wondering for a while whether there is a chance to use the advantage of three votes so that it would reflect my order of suspicion, but at the same time leave it possible for others to vote still too. I could not think of anything especially bright, though. I am thinking about voting for Cel, even though I don't like the fact that she is not around to respond - then again, who knows if she will be and if I think of all the quiet Wolves, my heart really tells me to vote for her. I wouldn't mind wilwa either, if it came to that, and if somebody else wants to lynch her, they still can do it, even after I cast all my votes for Cel. I think Shasta wanted to go with sally, which is an idea I am not so fond of - and here I think the limits my votes set would express my opinion pretty well: he could not lynch her alone, he'd need at least somebody else to beat my votes for that.
Okay, so yes, this is what I am going to do - vote for Celuien. ++all three votes for Celuien+++ Good Night, Cave, and let's hope for the best.
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09-19-2010, 04:37 PM | #497 |
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I'm sorry, I haven't had much of a chance to get online at all today, and when I have tried to go on this thread I had the time to do more than read.
I'm catching up now, but here are some of my thoughts so far: Won't vote for: Shasta- He seems to speak sense in an innocent way. Though I thought he was evil on early Day 1. I definitely need to reread his posts when I get a chance. Lommy- Seems a little less innocent than yesterDay, but still makes sense and says a lot that I agree with. Greenie- Not so sure about her. She felt very innocent yesterDay, but she doesn't so much toDay. She'll be another for me to reread. Legate- He does seem a bit unclear/abstract at times, but I don't think he's evil. Phantom- However much he's annoyed me, I can't actually see him being evil. Inzil- I can never read him, but so far I can't see anything bad about him. Rune- Just looks like he's having a bit of fun (and isn't that what this is about?), in an innocentish way. Haven't seen enough: Kath Celuien Mira Foley- She's been around more than the ones above, but I can't really get a read on her yet. Nog- See Foley, and he doesn't seem any more suspicious to me than usually does. No idea (so most likely won't vote just yet): Nerwen- Not sure whether I like or dislike her, but she's leaning innocent for now. People who don't look so good: Sally- As than the early rep-vote yesterDay, her responses just don't seem honest. However, because of the Lottie thing, I don't think she would be as likely to be an Elf, though there still is enough of a possibility for me to be willing to vote for her. Wilwa- Everything she says makes me more convinced of her Elvishness. And she split her vote yesterDay when she could have used them both on Lottie, which seems like a very Elvsih thing to do, as I said earlier (She can cover herself by having voted an elf, but didn't use all her voting power to actually get her killed). edit: fixed formatting and Xed with many (including 3 votes for Xed), though that doesn't matter since I haven't caught up fully anyway.
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09-19-2010, 04:42 PM | #498 | |||
Fluttering Enchantment
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But seriously, I would much prefer it if you lynched Sally. I believe lots of people have said that my role will be more obvious if you knew her's, so go for her. People have only wanted to lynch me for toDay, but Sally has been a possible lynch choice both Days. If you lynch me toDay then you'll just return to Sally tomorrow, which will result in you spending 3 Days talking about lynching her. So just get it over with now, it seems innevitable anyway, and if her role will shed some sort of light on me, might as well let me live one more Day just to see. Right? Anyway. I would also approve of a Mira lynch, since she hasn't been around much anyway, I'd hate to see an Elf get far by just staying under the radar. But not Celuien, I think she's innocent. x'ed with Legate and Steve
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09-19-2010, 04:55 PM | #499 |
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Having just read Nerwen's Wilwa post and looked at the voting, I have to say that it's unlikely that my top two suspects are both Elves together. Wilwa's vote put both Lottie and Sally in first place, and though it would make her look really innocent if they both turn out to be Elves, I don't think they would have wanted us to find out that they were both Elves (i.e., by getting them lynched). So basically, unless Wilwa was playing extremely riskily, she and Sally probably aren't Elves together.
Which means that one of my choices probably isn't an Elf. And right now, I think that's more likely to be Sally. So if nothing really happens soon my votes will probably be for Wilwa.
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09-19-2010, 05:02 PM | #500 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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Quote:
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But I did read your explanation and I do concede that it may be true that you did not remember that Foley wouldn't be able to be here much. I'm fairly certain that I didn't remember that fact until late in the day myself. But you still had to have remembered that if you could take one thing away from her the first day, it was "I don't like Phantom". So still... bleh... but this will be something to revisit when people know more, especially if the voting goes precisely as I outlined.
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09-19-2010, 05:11 PM | #501 |
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I don't at all like the way Legate has voted today. Especially for Celuien, of all people, who's made all of, what, eight posts? More the point, he voted specifically to save Sally, which makes me want to lynch her more. I'm not really agreeing with the suspicion of Wilwa right now - the most suspicious thing that has stood out for me is actually her most recent post, where she basically begs for her life.
++Sally++ Up to Eonwe now (and Foley but I don't think she's going to be around... something I think Legate actually knew).
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
09-19-2010, 05:18 PM | #502 |
Beloved Shadow
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Mira- are you around? I would love to hear any and every random thought you have. If you stay quiet it will be too easy for goodie and baddie alike to go along with lynching you, and combined with your lack of posts the lynch would be largely useless for future application.
Celuien- can you post as well?
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09-19-2010, 05:22 PM | #503 |
Beloved Shadow
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Shasta- are we actually agreeing on something ever so slightly? (Referring to Legate's rep & lynch vote- both might've been a bit shady?)
I see we're coming at it from different angles and what we wish to do as a result is different, but still... wow. I'm shocked.
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09-19-2010, 05:25 PM | #504 |
Beloved Shadow
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THE COUNT:
Nog-->Wilwa (2) Legate-->Celuien (3) Shasta-->Sally (2) LEFT TO VOTE: Foley (2) Steve (2)
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09-19-2010, 05:41 PM | #505 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Immediate thoughts since they were requested; more detailed to come.
phantom doesn't feel evil - er, good? - to me. His attention getting ploys are slightly more ridiculous than when he actually has something to lose. Case and point - Seer reveal that in my opinion accomplished nothing. Nog isn't making my head hurt, which a new and interesting experience. That does make me a tad suspicious with no backup for that though. Mira is a pretty ridiculous fail at this game. This is what happens when people are forced to spend their entire weekend doing homework. Ima go take a look at sally's posts for the past couple days.
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09-19-2010, 05:41 PM | #506 |
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Woah, woah, woah! You guys did NOT make me a representative! I juts got home, I have less than one and half hours before deadline, and you expect me to make votes for someone to die? Gee thanks.
I'll do a crash course and see what I can do. Don't expect much, because it looks like the family's about to sit down to dinner. What would be better - that I don't vote at all, or that I do vote? If I plan to vote, then my plan is to see why some people dislike Celuien. If I don't think she should die, my votes will go towards Sally. If I am uncertain about Celuien, I will focus on some other people and see what I think....but don't expect a very scientific or well informed vote from me. -- Folworc
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09-19-2010, 05:47 PM | #507 |
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Finally caught up.
Ok, well I can't really see why Celuien is such a suspect now. I'll need to reread her again when I'm less tired, but from what I've seen so far she just doesn't seem really innocent in any way, but she doesn't really look evil either. And she hasn't really posted enough for me to judge her. And as I said earlier, I'd rather vote Wilwa than Sally right now, so: ++Wilwa x2++ And now it's up to Foley
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09-19-2010, 05:51 PM | #508 |
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Oh, good idea, I should clarify -
Both my votes are for Sally. Re: Phantom - His rep vote is shady because it's possible he knew Foley wasn't going to be here to use it, and his lynch vote is shady for the reasons I've already stated, so... yes.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
09-19-2010, 05:52 PM | #509 |
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Well, I think it's time for a (long-overdue) sleep now.
Vote well, Foley!
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09-19-2010, 05:52 PM | #510 |
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Ah hm.
Well, I looked....and did Celuien even post today? There doesn't seem to be much reason to kill her. I'll have to go back and read her Day1 posts. I'll go eat dinner and come back and decide. I don't like this. What's the vote tally? I don't have time to go and see. X-posted with Eonwe and Shasta. I'll do my best to vote well, Shasta, you may be certain.
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09-19-2010, 05:54 PM | #511 |
Beloved Shadow
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THE COUNT:
Nog-->Wilwa (2) Legate-->Celuien (3) Shasta-->Sally (2) Steve-->Wilwa (4) LEFT TO VOTE: Foley (2)
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09-19-2010, 05:57 PM | #512 | |
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Quote:
If you vote Wilwa, she dies. If you vote Celuien, she dies. If you vote Sally, Sally and Wilwa both die (and this might not be a bad thing). If you vote anyone else, Wilwa dies. If you don't vote, Wilwa dies.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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09-19-2010, 06:00 PM | #513 | |
Beloved Shadow
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Well crap, there's a pig outside my second story window. Darn it, Shasta!
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09-19-2010, 06:06 PM | #514 |
Beloved Shadow
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This voting set up is quite interesting. All three people on the block had something to do with the action yesterday.
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09-19-2010, 06:10 PM | #515 |
Beloved Shadow
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People who are under threat- give Foley some help here and state your cases and make yourselves available to answer any questions she gives you.
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09-19-2010, 06:23 PM | #516 |
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Yeah, someone tell me what Wilwa's done, please. Since Celuien is no longer in immediate danger, I won't bother looking at her, because I really can't see any good reason to kill her.
I'll read Sally's posts today.
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A young man who wishes to remain a sound atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. - C.S. Lewis |
09-19-2010, 06:30 PM | #517 | |
Beloved Shadow
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Foley, regarding Wilwa- I found her Rep vote today to be a bit suspect, considering that she gave her vote to you, and you had said that you wouldn't be around. I thought it possible that she did this on purpose.
And then there was her lynch vote yesterday, which I theorized on earlier- Quote:
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the phantom has posted.
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09-19-2010, 06:31 PM | #518 |
Messenger of Hope
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: In a tiny, insignificant little town in one of the many States.
Posts: 5,076
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Um... Fea, can a rep only vote with one of her votes?
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A young man who wishes to remain a sound atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. - C.S. Lewis |
09-19-2010, 06:32 PM | #519 |
Messenger of Hope
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: In a tiny, insignificant little town in one of the many States.
Posts: 5,076
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Never mind.
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A young man who wishes to remain a sound atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. - C.S. Lewis |
09-19-2010, 06:34 PM | #520 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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You can, but it would take both your votes to make a difference where Sally is concerned.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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