Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Going through Inzil's posts now (thanks wilwa...but gotta say still suspect ye )

Right back at ya buddy.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Random Thought 1.1

I don't think the wolves would seek to guard themselves. Why would vote to guard their fellows. Why would they seek to remove one of their own from the night time discussions? Wouldn't they desire to have full input from their fellows.

We know they found the way to beat the guard votes, but I can't see wolves seeking to NG one of their own, unless if there was no choice and it was a throw away to mislead us...But because of Inzil's guard votes, I'm inclined to think Pitch is innocent, and Nogrod probably too, but there is more doubt since that bandwagon made it pretty clear Nogrod would be protected.

Still it wouldn't make sense for wolves to want to NG eachother, especially a Nogwolf, he would not want to be silenced during the night.

I have to agree with this. Maybe they'd vote for one another if they thought there was no chance that person would actually be guarded, but if anyone who's been guarded ends up being a wolf then those who vote for them at certain times would look rather innocent I think.

I think we should also all keep Nog in mind, I know Legate ended up being innocent, but that doesn't mean Nog is. I hate to think that he's a wolf just kind of skimming through. Even though I don't really get a wolf vibe from him, but I still can't get the idea that it wasn't a bluff the second time. Driving me nuts.

Hakon is kinda bugging me. He's contributing more then usual, which is great, but his suspicions are either gut feelings or things that can apply to him (like Nerwen listed).

[A Little Green]

LEANING INNOCENT:
Boromir - He just seems so trustworthy and makes a lot of sense and Nilp brought up a good point about his innocence.
Nienna - She's constantly making shrewd points that make me think "A wolf wouldn't say this aloud". Good vibes this far.
Nilp - Good vibes and in addition to that, I think I already mentioned that I can't see a wolf voting for a fellow twice in a row. I believe Nilp was among the first to start suspecting Inziladun in the first place.
Pitchwife - He seems genuine and I doubt he would have defended Inziladun so openly had he been his fellow.

NO IDEA:
Brinniel - I'm still waiting for the werewolf game where I have a read on her. She feels genuine, but has fooled me before.
McCaber - Too little to go on.
Nessa - Yeah.
Nogrod - I'm confused about him. His early behaviour looked downright suspicious (I believe I have said enough about that subject already...), but he has improved a lot lately. So I don't know.
Shasta - Too little to go on.
wilwa - Another who confuses me to the point of causing me a headache.

LEANING EVIL:
Hakon - I already said why in my previous post. I'm wondering - could he be a new wolf or is it too easy to be true? (Just how many things have I called too easy during this game?)
Nerwen - Aaaaaaaargh. She is making my head ache so much. Last Night I suspected her quite a bit, because a) she phrased her thought, on Day 2, in a way that seemed like she knew that Legate was not, in fact, a wolf, b) she has been acting like she knew why the wolves do this and that (a bit like Zil), and c) I certainly wouldn't put it past her to give a second vote to her fellow wolf (looking good if he gets lynched but not condemning him to a certain death at the gallows). However, her posts seem so sensible that it makes me doubtful.
Sally - I believe I have already stated why I suspect her.

Actually, now that I think of it, it's curious how Nerwen and Hakon, two of my suspects, suspect each other quite vocally. Could it be wolf-on-wolf? Hakon's sudden and hasty-looking attack on Nerwen could be something they had agreed that he do. Like, they had decided last Night that Nerwen and Hakon could pull a wolf-on-wolf suspicion thing. Hrmmmmmm.

But if Hakon is guilty and Nerwen is, too, it would make me think better of Sally, since it wouldn't quite fit the picture that Hakon pulls a planned attack on Nerwen and off-handedly mentions Sally as another one he's suspicious of.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa. Happy to see someone else around!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by McCaber

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.

Well I got the same impression as Wilwa and I don't see how it could be otherwise.

Which leaves us basicaly two chances; either the wolves missed the kill (no one PM'd it in time) or then there is a secret role that annihilated their try.

But then again that probably should not be our main concern now (wondering why McCaber thought that quote up there is the only thing he has to say to contribute).

I have a host of confusing thoughts in my mind as well and I'll try to arrange them in my head a bit before voicing them but I'd like to state the first one already now.

Where did that "guard Shasta" -movement come from? That is a thing I find reaally bothering. I mean no offence Shasta, but you haven't actually contributed in this game. Let's say the wolves actually killed fex. an innocent Nerwen, Wilwa, Boro... (eg. someone who has actually helped us a lot and here for argument's sake is innocent) and you thought it was more important to guard Shasta...

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.

Okay, I'll go back to read things...


EDIT: Added the ending to one sentence which for some reason was not there...

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think we should also all keep Nog in mind, I know Legate ended up being innocent, but that doesn't mean Nog is. I hate to think that he's a wolf just kind of skimming through.

Exactly. I'm sort of worried that people don't take him into account at all.

I had something smart to say but can't remember what it was. My brain is leaking.


EDIT: x-ed with my topic.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Exactly. I'm sort of worried that people don't take him into account at all.

I have just been too agreeable this far...

Which is kind of interesting ww-psychology -thing as I think I have really betrayed you all with not doing enough work in this game, and the result is that no one suspects me a lot and I'm alive on Day4... Interesting indeed. I mean when I really try my best to help I get lynched or Night-killed pretty early and rarely even a Day passes without bandwagons to lynch me.

Let's see if I manage to change that toDay...

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.

How about a no trace -kill? On top of that, no one really suspects Shasta so he doesn't have that big a chance of getting lynched - no, I can see why the wolves might have wanted to go for Shasta.

I think you have a point, though, about the Shasta-wagon coming out of the blue. Sally's guard vote, for example: where did that come from? I cheched those guard votes and it just struck me that Sally cast her guard vote at the last minute to create a three-way tie (Shasta, Pitchwife and Nerwen) in the guard votes. Could she have voted Shasta to try to avoid one of her fellows ending up being guarded? That presents us with a problem, though - why not vote the other one with three votes instead of bringing up a third candidate? It's possible, though, that Sally didn't know the votes (she even asked for a vote tally!) and thus voted one she had seen having some guard votes already. That would mean that if Sally is a werewolf, either Pitch or Nerwen could be one too.

Wait... Nerwen...

Looks far too easy. Aaaaaaargh.


EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[wilwarin538]

a list to stay organised:

Suspicious
Boro: he may disprove of this suspicion but I still have it, he just makes me uneasy
McCaber: the one random post today is kinda weird, and just him seeming to be under the radar all the time is weird
Hakon: well, I think it's been said numerous times, his gut feelings and overall illogical reasoning

Innocentish
Nerwen: still feel good about her
Nienna: fine with
Brinn: comfortable
Pitch: actually really good with him now
Greenie: liking alot
Nilp: feel pretty good about him

Unsure
Nessa: nothing
Nogrod: I don't find anything he's done really suspicious, but just because of the single Night kill he's going into this category for a while
Shasta: hopefully he shows up today

x'ed with nog and greenie

[Nogrod]

A few words on the subject of Day2's voting.

Four people didn't vote for Legate and they all voted for Inzil-wolf. Of those both Lommy and Legate are dead and innocents. So that makes also Nilp and McCaber look good as well?

Legate doesn't of course vote for himself and we know that Lommy was furious about us lynching Legate - well consistently and arguingly against our interpretation of his status anyway.

Now as Nilp voted much earlier than anyone else and McCaber at the end I'd say they both could have acted thus as wolves. Which is not to say they are my prime suspects or anything like that but just that there is nothing to wash them clean there.

And btw. the fact that Nilp has voted twice in a row for Inzil-wolf is no guarantee of his innocence either. It is actually more suspicious as it is seldom that an innocent manages to vote for a wolf two times in a row. We are not that consistent because we don't know things...

But then again, unlike Nienna, I have found Nilp's posting the most insightful and wouldn't like to see him lynched at least at this point when I believe we have better candidates on offer.


Another thing that I thought looking back at the voting lists, and which has been speculated toDay, is the wolves' interest of voting their own to be guarded.

We have quite nothing concrete to share on the wolves' actions. Boro, me and Pitchwife know it for ourselves whether Inzil voted for his fellow to be guarded. Now looking at the thread in general, it looks the most like he followed the general trust of the villagers. So he tried to be as uncontroversial as possible? And at least in my case he was not voting for a mate to be guarded.

I do think it would not have been in their interests to get one of them guarded whilst there were four wolves left. With a villager guarded they had the initiative to choose what to do and the suspicion or insecurity following (which I see Wilwa restating once more) would be bad for them.

Now on whose decisions the guarded have been chosen (ie. whose votes decided) is another question to be sure.

But now as the double-kill option is over and done with the wolvish intentions might be different (with the double-kill option: guard vocal innocents and thus make them look suspicious to be lynched). Now they'd not like to see vocal players guarded as that would make them unkillable during the Nights.

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

Hmm, that's actually brilliant. Like toDay if we were to guard Nessa and then she got modfired, really we're not actually guarding anyone, which the wolves would like. Still confused about that rule though, if Nessa or Shasta is modfired today the wolves don't get a kill?? Or am I still totally off on this?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Four people didn't vote for Legate and they all voted for Inzil-wolf. Of those both Lommy and Legate are dead and innocents. So that makes also Nilp and McCaber look good as well?

Have to say that out of Nilp and McCaber, McCaber for me is the one who looks the most suspicious, since his vote was at the end of the Day when it was obvious Legate would be lynched (almost like he knew Legate would be innocent and didn't want to be a part of it, for fear of that making him look bad). I think one of them could be a wolf (probably not both), cause for all of the wolves to vote Legate (even though that would hide them well) just seems unlikely.

[Nogrod]

Looking at how little he has posted I found this an interesting post:

Originally Posted by McCaber

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Still confused about that rule though, if Nessa or Shasta is modfired today the wolves don't get a kill?? Or am I still totally off on this?

I think you are still confused about it. I understood it that a modfire would reduce the wolf-kills by one only when they had a chance of two kills - which is reasonable whilst the other interpretation would not be. But hopefuly Eönwë confirms this issue at some point.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think you are still confused about it. I understood it that a modfire would reduce the wolf-kills by one only when they had a chance of two kills - which is reasonable whilst the other interpretation would not be. But hopefuly Eönwë confirms this issue at some point.

K, yeah, that's how I understood it. But McCaber's post made it sound like they lose a kill even when there's less then 4 of them. So that's why I was mixed up. I must have just misunderstood him.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Following that logic, the ones that look the worst to me are Nerwen (2nd to vote Zil), Wilwa (4th) and Brinn (5th). Nilp, the 1st, looks slightly less so, since I have a hard time imagining a wolf voting for his fellow twice in a row. Nienna looks maybe the best of the Zil voters based on the order in which they voted. She was the third to vote him, at a time when he had two votes and Brinn had one, putting Zil in a clear lead.

*sigh*

So, apart from Nienna, everyone who voted the wolf looks bad to you?

Similarly, I recall that on Day 3 at least one person found the non-Legate voters more suspicious than all us pure-souled, high-minded types who strung him up. Look, it's true that wolves can indeed use their secret knowledge to vote "well", but doing so is not, in itself, evidence of guilt (merely not proof of innocence). This is getting silly.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Hmmm. I've been wondering about him as well. It would seem somehow too easy, with his defence of Inziladun yesterDay and all that, but then, Wilwa and Sally are about the easiest suspects you could have, and his arguments were hasty-looking as if he was desperately trying to make a case against somebody.

He looks too obviously wolfish to be real, almost, but that could be on purpose. It's happened before... I don't know.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Where did that "guard Shasta" -movement come from? That is a thing I find reaally bothering. I mean no offence Shasta, but you haven't actually contributed in this game. Let's say the wolves actually killed fex. an innocent Nerwen, Wilwa, Boro... (eg. someone who has actually helped us a lot and here for argument's sake is innocent) and you thought it was more important to guard Shasta...

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.

It would make sense if the wolves wanted him guarded so they were free to kill contributing players (another black mark against Sally). I wonder what went wrong?

EDIT:X'd since Wilwa at #487.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And btw. the fact that Nilp has voted twice in a row for Inzil-wolf is no guarantee of his innocence either. It is actually more suspicious as it is seldom that an innocent manages to vote for a wolf two times in a row. We are not that consistent because we don't know things...

As I said to Greenie– that's not more suspicious. It just doesn't prove he's innocent. Besides, it was the same wolf each time, and others suspected him on Day 2. (See my guard -vote.)

I'm not saying Nilp can't be a wolf, understand– but we need to do something about this bad-votes-are-good-and-good-votes-are-bad meme. It's getting out of hand.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

Agreed on that one.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

a list to stay organised:

Suspicious
Boro: he may disprove of this suspicion but I still have it, he just makes me uneasy
McCaber: the one random post today is kinda weird, and just him seeming to be under the radar all the time is weird
Hakon: well, I think it's been said numerous times, his gut feelings and overall illogical reasoning

Innocentish
Nerwen: still feel good about her
Nienna: fine with
Brinn: comfortable
Pitch: actually really good with him now
Greenie: liking alot
Nilp: feel pretty good about him

Unsure
Nessa: nothing
Nogrod: I don't find anything he's done really suspicious, but just because of the single Night kill he's going into this category for a while
Shasta: hopefully he shows up today

x'ed with nog and greenie

I didn't even make your list.



Anyway, I thought I was caught up but there's 13 pages instead of 12 so I obviously skipped. *blushes* I'll go read that now but wanted to let you know it might be a quiet Day for me. My internet's been acting up off and on so I don't know if I'll be here.

Also, a quick explanation of my guard vote yesterDay, as I wasn't able to give one at the time. First, can I kick myself for tying things up further? *headdesks* I had no idea what the votes were, unfortunately, but I thought Shasta was a good choice because, to me, he was a good person to keep around if innocent and also a good person to block from Night activity because I suspected him a little bit. Kind of a best of both worlds thing, which now is an irrelevant argument because Dun is dead (yay, by the way, and nice job to you all) but that's what was going through my head at the time.

Oh, and a completely crack theory. Is it possible that we blocked the only wolf who had time to get on the Downs last Night? I say this because I know some people have been busy/quiet and if Pitchie was the only one who could get on the Downs but he was blocked that could explain the lack of Night kill. (I'm not saying I believe this, but it is a possibility. Heck if I know.)

Now, off to have some ketchup. Yum.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I didn't even make your list.

Whoops. I had meant to put you under UNSURE.

[satansaloser2005]

Okie dokie, I'm caught up, and shall now try (again) to analyze some peoples. YesterDay I had an analysis of Shasta and Cabbie and someone else but it got eaten when my computer crashed, alas. I might do Cabbie again (honestly, I hadn't finished him at the time so I'd still like to gather my thoughts there) and then see how things look from there.



EDIT: x'd with Wilwa. Ah, lovely then.

EDIT 2: First I'm gonna do a vote count though. So there.
EDIT 3: By vote count I mean vote tally. Other people have done one but I've my own system, doncha know.
EDIT 4: Just to say I'm done editing this bloody post.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Greenie

BUT if we lynch an innocent toDay, Shasta and Nessa both miss the lynch and are innocent and the wolves manage a kill next Night, we'll be down to 7 innocents and 3 wolves.

Well yes, Shasta could be modfired if he doesn't vote toDay, but Nessa still has both toDay and toMorrow to vote since she did on Day 2. I know, it's hard to remember since it was her only post. But yeah, all this potential modfire that could occur... *grumbles*

[Brinniel]

I don't really care for Pitchwife's defense in his first post toDay. It's the first thing he does at the very beginning of the Day before anyone even starts to accuse him of anything. Preparing a defense before the accusations are made can be a very wolfish thing to do.

I'm wondering how likely it is Hakon's a wolf. His strong defense for Inzil is bold and looks quite bad, but would he be so obvious were he a wolf? Though Hakon is still pretty new to WW and I don't think he's been a wolf before, so I suppose there's a chance it could've been a newbie wolf error.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I just got on and had time to read most of the posts but I only skimmed this last page here. So far I only have gut feelings about two people. Those people are Legate and Boro. My gut feeling with Legate is just that something is off and it is bothering me. My gut feeling about Boro is that he is an innocent.

++Boro

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

He didn’t have a lot of time to analyze so he went with his gut. Not the best because his gut was wrong but not unheard of for Day One.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over whether we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

EDIT: Fixed a typo that Sally pointed out.

Mentions how we are probably going to lynch Legate even though he is professing his innocence which can very well be a sign of guilt. It seems he is trying to dissuade people from listening to Legate. This was kind of a crucial time before Legate had too many votes so that is interesting. I don’t know… something about the wording and such in this post strikes me as odd. He seems like he is distancing himself from the village.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have to go now. I will be back by deadline. Before I go I want to put in my lynch vote.

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.

Pitchwife, you suggest guarding Legate again and to me it makes it sound like you want him to live. If Legate turns out to be a wolf it suggests that you are also a wolf.

Votes early even though he says he will be back by deadline. 3rd vote for Legate so at this time there could still be time for a different lynch candidate. Makes a random statement about Alona lurking that looks like a possible set up for if she did happen to come back… slightly unsettling.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Time for my guard vote.

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

This is interesting… he votes for Nog for the same reasons as McCaber and Zil… yet Zil’s reasons were “for Cab’s reasons” (333)… and McCaber’s reasons were rushed and because “he’s been making a lot of sense, and I’d rather seem him alive” (319)

Originally Posted by Hakon

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them. My guess is that the wolf is one of the earlier voters rather than the ones who voted Legate closer to deadline. I think that if there is one wolf amongst the voters this is the case but if there are more than one then this is probably not the case for all of them.

Another thing is the wolves probably expect us to lynch Nogrod today. I think we should try to avoid doing that.

Pretty self-explanatory…

Originally Posted by Hakon

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Logical.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I am going to start off this post by saying do not lynch Inziladun. I think the wolves set up last night so we either lynch Nogrod or Inziladun. Out of the four Inziladun voters, only two are alive. So far we have assumed they are innocent. The wolves expected us to make that assumption. They want us to lynch Inziladun. It is clear that both he and Nogrod are the prime lynch targets today. We should lynch neither of them.

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

Doesn’t want to lynch Zil. Thinks Pitchwife is suspicious for really faulty reasoning.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I know. In the part of my post that you quoted I was simply stating the obvious.

I thought about it some more and I think Pitchwife is innocent. So far he has only had the role of gifteds so it is logical that he would given the role of an innocent this time. He also is coming off as innocent in this game whereas when he has had the role of a gifted he has not come off as innocent.

++Pitchwife

People, do not vote Inziladun. As I have said earlier the wolves want this. Do not vote for him. The wolves have set it up so we either end up lynching Inziladun today or the guard from last night which is Nogrod. We should not lynch either of them.

Still doesn’t want to lynch Zil but no longer finds Pitchwife suspicious… actually votes to protect him.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have been saying almost all day that he was set up by the wolves to be lynched today. Hopefully people will listen to you since they failed to listen to me when I said it. The wolves set up two lynching targets, Inziladun and Nogrod. For what seems like the billionth time we should not lynch either of them. So far it is clear that Nogrod is safe and it seems that Inziladun is going to be lynched. Pitchwife, I also plan not to be part of the wagon this time.

Originally Posted by Hakon

[lynch vote]++Nienna[/lynch vote]

Something about her is off. Sadly this is a gut feeling and I am going to get hell for it especially if Inziladun turns out guilty. Still something is off about Nienna.

Really really doesn’t want to vote Zil so votes for me instead… based on a gut feeling which has been proven a faulty way of reasoning already this game.

Originally Posted by Hakon

It is not just unfair to them. It is boring. Knowing who will die takes away the excitement from the game.

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me. I regret defending Inziladun yesterday. I really thought he was innocent.

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons and Sally in the first two but she did not vote yesterday. If she had time to make that quick post where she made her guard vote, I would think that she had time to add a quick lynch vote as well. Almost like she wanted to escape condemning a fellow wolf. I think she voted Shasta because she was worried that her possible fellow wolf Nerwen might be guarded. At the time when Sally voted, Nerwen and Pitch both had three votes and Shasta had two votes. By making it a three way tie Sally had made it a little bit harder for Nerwen to get guarded.

One thing I want to add, is that I do not get why three people voted for Shasta yesterday. He has not been around at all and it was unlikely that he would get killed the next night. It seems like a throwaway vote, the same really as voting for yourself.

On the whole I don’t think him the most suspicious of people. On my continuum of innocent to wolf he is closer to wolf than innocent though.

[Nerwen]

The Shasta Voters:

1.Nienna.
Day 1: Lynch Inzil, guard Mnemo (2).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (5), guard Nerwen (2).
Day 3: Lynch Inzil (3), guard Shasta (1).

2.Pitchwife
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (4), guard Boro (4).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (8), guard Nogrod (2).
Day 3: Lynch Boro, guard Shasta (2).

3.Sally
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (6), guard Mnemo.
Day 2: Lynch Legate (12), guard Nienna.
Day 3: Lynch Nobody, guard Shasta (3).

Following Sally's own system, innocents are in italics, known wolves are underlined.

Points against them:

Well, all three were Legate voters–who wasn't? However, Pitchwife and Sally also cast very bandwagonning votes on Kit.

Pitchwife argued strongly against lynching Inzilawolf, and stressed the theory that he had been framed. I'm inclined to think Pitchy a misguided innocent, but you never know...

Sally has done little except post tallies, a favourite lupine trick for appearing to contribute more than you're doing.* She also brought Shasta to a tie.

There is nothing I can think of against Nienna, unless it's that she might indeed be a little too good to be true. *shrugs*

X'd since Brinniel at #497.
*Yes, I know I'm doing it now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nienna

On the whole I don’t think him the most suspicious of people. On my continuum of innocent to wolf he is closer to wolf than innocent though.

Out of curiosity, who do you find the "most suspicious"?

–Anyway, I'm going to try voting him.

Lynch:

++Hakon

I'm not at all sure about this, though– in fact I seem to be flip-flopping in a manner worthy of Lommy. At one read he seems just like a clumsy wolfcub– perhaps under instructions to play up his inexperience– at others like a garden variety confused ordo.

Guard:

++Nienna.

Despite being one of the Shasta Three, she seems okay, and has contributed a lot. (I'm not ruling out that she could be an extremely sneaky wolf, but at the moment she's low on my suspicion list.)

[Nerwen]

Good Night, and let's hope we lynch the right person!

[satansaloser2005]

DAY ONE

Lynch:
Nilp-->Nilp
Mnemo-->Wilwa
Brinn-->Cabbie
Nerwen-->Kit
Shasta-->Lommie
Kit-->Brinn
Boro-->Kit (2)
Dun-->Kit (3)
Greenie-->Nog
Cabbie-->Wilwa (2)
Hakon-->Legate
Pitchie-->Kit (4)
Legate-->Wilwa (3)
Nienna-->Dun
Wilwa-->Kit (5)
Nog-->Greenie
Lommie-->Kit(6)
Sally-->Kit(7)

Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa


Guard:
Mnemo-->Boro
Brinn-->Legate
Sally-->Mnemo
Nerwen-->Legate (2)
Kit-->Hakon
Shasta-->Legate (3)
Boro-->Nienna
Dun-->Boro (2)
Nog-->Legate (4)
Greenie-->Nienna (2)
Nienna-->Mnemo (2)
Hakon-->Boro (3)
Pitchie-->Boro (4)
Lommie-->Legate (5)
Legate-->Lommie
Wilwa-->Legate (6)

Didn't vote: Alona, Nessa, Cabbie, Nilp



DAY TWO

Lynch:
Nilp-->Dun
Nerwen-->Legate
Boro-->Legate (2)
Hakon-->Legate (3)
Greenie-->Legate (4)
Lommie-->Dun (2)
Nienna-->Legate (5)
Wilwa-->Legate (6)
Brinn-->Legate (7)
Pitch-->Legate (8)
Cabbie-->Dun (3)
Nessa-->Legate (9)
Nog-->Legate (10)
Dun-->Legate (11)
Legate-->Dun (4)
Sally-->Legate (12)

Didn't vote: Alona, Shasta


Guard:
Nilp-->Wilwa
Nerwen-->Dun
Boro-->Nerwen
Greenie-->Nog
Lommie-->Nilp
Nienna-->Nerwen (2)
Brinn-->Shasta
Pitch-->Nog (2)
Cabbie-->Noggie (3)
Wilwa-->Noggie (4)
Nessa-->Noggie (5)
Legate-->Nilp (2)
Dun-->Nog (6)
Nog-->Boro
Hakon-->Nog
Sally-->Nienna

Didn't vote: Alona, Shasta



DAY THREE

Lynch:
Nilp-->Dun
Nerwen-->Dun (2)
Dun-->Brinn
Nog-->(abstain)
Nienna-->Dun (3)
Wilwa-->Dun (4)
Brinn-->Dun (5)
Greenie-->Sally
Pitchie-->Boro
Hakon-->Nienna

Didn't vote: Nessa, Boro, Cabbie, Sally, Shasta


Guard:
Nilp-->Boro
Nerwen-->Boro (2)
Dun-->Pitchie
Nog-->Nerwen
Nienna-->Shasta
Wilwa-->Nerwen (2)
Hakon-->Pitchie (2)
Brinn-->Nerwen (3)
Greenie-->Pitchie (3)
Pitchie-->Shasta (2)
Sally-->Shasta (3)

Didn't vote: Nessa, Boro, Cabbie, Shasta


So, each person's voting (lynching/guarding)

Greenie: Nog, Legate (4), Sally/Nienna (2), Nog, Pitch (3)
Alona: never voted, like, ever
Boro: Kit (2), Legate (2), didn't vote/Nienna, Nerwen, didn't vote
Brinn: Cabbie, Legate (7), Dun (5)/Legate, Shasta, Nerwen (3)
Hakon: Legate, Legate (3), Nienna/Boro (3), Noggie, Pitch (2)
Dun: Kit (3), Legate (11), Brinn/Boro (2), Nog (6), Pitch
Kit: Brinn/Hakon
Legate: Wilwa (3), Dun (4)/Lommie, Nilp (2)
Cabbie: Wilwa (2), Dun (3), didn't vote/didn't vote, Nog (3), didn't vote
Duckling: Wilwa/Boro
Nerwen: Kit, Legate, Dun (2)/Legate, Dun, Boro (2)
Nessa: didn't vote, Legate (9), didn't vote/didn't vote, Nog (5), didn't vote
Nienna: Dun, Legate (5), Dun (3)/Mnemo (2), Nerwen (2), Shasta
Nilp: Nilp, Dun, Dun/didn't vote, Wilwa, Boro
Noggie: Greenie, Legate (10), abstain/Legate (4), Boro, Nerwen
Pitchie: Kit (4), Legate (8), Boro/Boro (4), Nog (2), Shasta (2)
Sally: Kit (7), Legate (12), didn't vote/Mnemo, Nienna, Shasta (3)
Shasta: Lommie, didn't vote, didn't vote/Legate (3), didn't vote, didn't vote
Lommie: Kit (6), Dun (2)/Legate (5), Nilp
Wilwa: Kit (5), Legate (6), Dun (4)/Legate (6), Noggie (4), Nerwen (2)

I'll make my conclusions in a bit. Really, I needed to get this in a format I could digest so I could take a good look at it. Back in a bit with reactions and such.

EDIT: x'd since Brinn's post re: modfire

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.

No. The wolves will not lose a kill toNight if Shasta is modfired. Nessa still has another Day.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*sigh*

So, apart from Nienna, everyone who voted the wolf looks bad to you?

Similarly, I recall that on Day 3 at least one person found the non-Legate voters more suspicious than all us pure-souled, high-minded types who strung him up. Look, it's true that wolves can indeed use their secret knowledge to vote "well", but doing so is not, in itself, evidence of guilt (merely not proof of innocence). This is getting silly.

I'm afraid I failed miserably at making myself clear. No, I wasn't saying practically everyone who voted the wolf looks guilty. I was saying that at least one of them is probably a wolf and was pondering who is the most likely candidate (and didn't get too far, as you doubtlessly noticed). I agree with the point you bring in the end of the second paragraph.

Sally creeps me out. I'm flip-flopping about Nerwen because she feels innocent but my theories point against her. Hakon is another I'm considering as my lynch-target toDay. What about you others? I'd like to hear about who you think of voting. Just so as to avoid throwing away my precious vote.

[wilwarin538]

Sally, I voted Kit on Day 1.

Thanks for the much needed clarification Mr. Mod.

[A Little Green]

A sidenote: I will not be around much longer and have to vote very soon. Whether it will be Sally, Nerwen or Hakon I have no idea yet. Probably not Nerwen since I feel so flip-floppy about her at the moment, so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?

[Nogrod]

Back again... and just on the top of affairs, kudos to you Nienna for reminding us about this (talking of Hakon voting to guard me by saying: "I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil..")

Originally Posted by Nienna

This is interesting… he votes for Nog for the same reasons as McCaber and Zil… yet Zil’s reasons were “for Cab’s reasons” (333)… and McCaber’s reasons were rushed and because “he’s been making a lot of sense, and I’d rather seem him alive” (319)

Well I'm totally torn between the same options Nerwen so eloquently phrases:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

At one read he seems just like a clumsy wolfcub– perhaps under instructions to play up his inexperience– at others like a garden variety confused ordo.

So a too easy wolf-catch or just something completely different?

I can't pin it down to a few clear arguments right now but I'm actually getting a bit afraid of Pitchie... Looking at Nerwen's last tally of "Shasta-guarders" didn't exactly lessen that feeling. And I haven't forgotten my suspicion on Sally either... even if I do appreciate the tallies!

These are not just gut feelings, but are based on some things I have read and thought a second time at some point in the game (sadly I haven't written them all up) - and basically I'm afraid of you all right now; like you Boro are too snappy and looking like trying to "sniff the mood" to start things on others; or you Greenie nicely staying on the background but basically doing the same thing; or Wilwa making such an effort to look the most reasonable person there is - like Nerwen does... And what/whonot...

I try to express at least some of my fears after I have watched the latest episode of 24 that is beginning in a moment (yes bad TV, repulsive even, but I 'm interested on how the new regime in the US. changes the series background-values - or does it).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?

I think you might have them on top of many agendas... even if they wouldn't be the only ones.

[A Little Green]

Heck. For better or worse, my vote will be

++ Hakon

Among other things, if he is lynched it gives us much information, on for example my Nerwen theories I'm so torn about at the moment.

As for my guard vote, it will be

++ Boro

because he feels innocent and if he really is that he is someone the wolves might want to be rid of. And if he is a wolf I wouldn't grieve for him being taken from their company and counsel for one Night.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A sidenote: I will not be around much longer and have to vote very soon. Whether it will be Sally, Nerwen or Hakon I have no idea yet. Probably not Nerwen since I feel so flip-floppy about her at the moment, so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?

A part of me wants to vote for Boro, but it doesn't look like anyone else is going for that so I probably won't bother, plus that is more from feeling anyway. Between Hakon and Sally I'm more inclined to go with Hakon toDay. But I was also considering voting McCaber...hmmm....

I need some more time to think through it. But I will probably have to vote within the next hour or so, there's a chance I may not be around for the DL.

edit: x'ed with Greenie.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Sally, I voted Kit on Day 1.

Thanks for the much needed clarification Mr. Mod.

Aha! I thought so, but for some reason I didn't see it on my list so....yeah.



Gah, the internet is being such a PAIN!!!! I'm going to fix that above post and get back to work, but if I don't reappear please to not be killing me, thanks. I'll do my best.

[satansaloser2005]

Going to analyze Hakon and Cabbie now, interwebs willing.

Either way, I'm pretty sure my guard vote will remain the same:

++Guard Nienna


I think she's innocent and she's someone that I think will be valuable later on, blah blah. Pretty standard reasons, really.


Hope to be back soon.

[McCaber]

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

[Hakon]

I hate having to defend myself, but I will.

Lets start it off with a simple phrase. I am not a wolf. Yes I did run on gut feelings day one because I was busy and I did not have time to read the posts when I got home. I just wanted to make deadline. I think that sometimes gut feelings can be good. Day two I truly thought Legate was a wolf, as did most of us. I was wrong in suspecting that. Yesterday I was wrong in thinking Inziladun was innocent but it seemed like the wolves had set him up. Nerwen, you are too good at starting bandwagons. You make one vote for me and it is enough to get a second vote for me, which is soon going to turn into a bandwagon. Yes today my arguments against people were hasty as some of you pointed out. Truthfully I just wanted to point my suspicions at someone and I did. I was in a hurry so I did not do my best to explain them. I apologize for that.

McCaber, there are no cobblers in this game. I am not a cobbler. I am not trying to appear suspicious. Although that idea is good. McCaber, I think you are under the radar too much. That is my sole reason for being suspicious of you.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, well since I may or may not be able to make it on later, I don't want to risk missing the chance to vote so I'm going to do it now

++ Guard Nienna

since she's making sense.

++McCaber

since I find him more suspicious then Hakon, who I'm starting to think may just be misguided.

Might still manage to show up later, but just incase I don't I wish you all good luck!

[Nogrod]

Even without Wilwa's vote... please McCaber, what are you doing?

Just explain a little... what do you think of people? A wolf would do well just mentioning one or two and backing away from every slight suspicion he made. Good Public Relations but not too good if trying to catch the wolves.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by McCaber

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Says the game may start out rough, but hopes we can limit kill numbers early on.

Then he says that if we protect someone and there's only one kill we shouldn't be overeager and lynch them right away (also known as the Silly Sally plan of now Fail). Says it's too easy for the pack to mess with our minds in this way (which did in fact happen) and that while it could work to our advantage it's a risk.

Nothing really to say here, but I wanted to point the second bit out because it comes into play later.

Originally Posted by McCaber

The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

++wilwa

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

It's Day One. Most of the discussion is silly. Although I think he's referring to Mnemo's proposed plan, which is why he says 'adverse effect'.

Also, the 'they're' looks weird to me. Don't know why, besides the obvious, which is....well, too obvious. Blah. Probably just a silly Cabbie thing.


DAY TWO

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

So before he said that we shouldn't use the protections to determine our lynches, but now he thinks a Legate lynch is acceptable. This just seems too slick for me, especially with the 'but I'll see how the Day goes and then decide which side to take' at the end. I don't like it.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

So he just sums up what's going on and says he can't make up his mind. Erm, k.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun

Finally seems to make up his mind, and it appears an attempt to cover his earlier statement. Seems to me that he's saying "go ahead and lynch Legate, but I can't be involved because otherwise I'll contradict myself and look bad".

Also, I noted this before, although only briefly. This would be a really good move for a packmate of Dun, and here's why. Legate's pretty much screwed, so voting Dun isn't a dangerous move. Also, if/when Dun was lynched and proven guilty, Cabbie could pull a "I told you so" and look more innocent for making a case for Dun before most other people. So basically this jumps him up on my wolf radar, a lot.

(By extreme extension this leads me to believe the Wilwa and Cabbie will not be in a pack together. He voted to kill her on Day One when it was still possible she'd be lynched, so while it's possible I don't think it's the case.)


DAY THREE

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

Erm....okay, nice of you to confess there, friend. Mind telling us who your other two packmates are then? That'd be ever so helpful of you!

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

I don't think there's much in this, other than more logicless logic and useless points. (E.g. his commentary on the plan, which has been extinct for like two Days now.) Mentions Nog, but I'm not getting a feeling about it one way or another so meh.


DAY FOUR

Originally Posted by McCaber

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

This....makes no sense to me. They knew Alona was getting modfired so why kill her? There's no reason (especially now) for them to lose the kill just because of this. (I know this has been mentioned somewhere else so I'm going to read through this section of the thread again, but I make this statement from a strategy standpoint, not a 'somehow they weren't allowed a kill' standpoint.) If nothing else it looks plain weird.

Originally Posted by McCaber

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

And again, he's making judgements and then saying "but I could be wrong, so I best not say anything". Could be an attempt to distance himself from a packmate Pitchie/Hakon while not appearing to support them completely, but I'm not sure.


Overall Cabbie seems very off to me, from his voting to just some of the statements he makes. I'm definitely seeing him as a top suspect.

[Boromir88]

and basically I'm afraid of you all right now; like you Boro are too snappy and looking like trying to "sniff the mood" to start things on others~Nogrod

Snappy, yes, because I'm finding out I'm having only about 2 hours a day, total to be on read everything and then post. The way I normally like to do things hasn't been possible.

But, I'm not sure how I have been "sniffing the mood." I've said my suspicions are Shasta and Wilwa, and I said why. Plus currently Nog, Pitch, and Nerwen look innocent. The rest I'm unsure, because I really haven't given much thought towards them. How is announcing suspicions and the ones I feel innocent about "sniffing the mood?" I thought that was the purpose of this thing.

++wilwa

because I said so...and

++Guard Nilp

also, because I said so.

[satansaloser2005]

Doing Hakon now, but I have to say it's already looking pretty dark for him too.

(Oh, and sorry, Nienna dear. I've not read your Hakon analysis yet because I want to make sure I'm as unbiased as possible.)


Quick vote count (if it doesn't make me look suspicious)

Lynch:
Nerwen-->Hakon
Greenie-->Hakon (2)
Wilwa-->Cabbie
Boro-->Wilwa

Guard:
Nerwen-->Nienna
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Wilwa-->Nienna (3)
Boro-->Nilp