WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Well we're not down another person...I'd call that fortunate.

Exactly.

But then again, we are not as fortunate as we would be in a normal game - in this game we need every clue we can get and the mutineers deny us our clues by failing to send in the kill. (If they're doing it intentionally, I say it's not fair unless it backfires and we get to reduce their numbers without them killing us.)

[Nerwen]

I have to go now, so

++Gwath.

As usual, I'll try and be back before DL and may change my vote.

About double-lynching people: it's like this– we will have to eventually, because otherwise we're completely in the dark. However, every time we do, we're in effect giving the mutineers a free turn. I don't think we'll get more than a couple of shots at it, so we have to choose the time and the person very carefully.

EDIT:X'd with Lommy.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry I have been quiet. Just terminally befuddled. Will have another go... a concrete pieceo of information would be nice ... but it aint a decision to be taken lightly... and most of the people I want to check out are inconveniently still alive.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Well we're not down another person...I'd call that fortunate.

We're still in the same situation we would have been in after a normal Night. Besides, even if you want to say we're ahead by a round, it's going to be that way for the rest of the game - no need to double-lynch someone today.

[Thinlómien]

Haha everybody's again assuming Wilwa was innocent. Are we all mutineers?

[Macalaure]

Alright, Izzy seems to either not pay attention or isn't on our side.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But I still don't like him, that list of his, it's oh so fabricated. He's going with the flow a bit too much and I get the feeling he's agreeing with Rikae to avoid her putting all her attention to him and realising he's evil.

Fabricated... going with flow... isn't that just a tad generic (as opposed to "vague" )? It's also wrong: I included points about some people's absence and activity in there, which nobody else did.

Anyway, I do agree with you that, if we do a double-lynch today, it should be with Mira or Annu. Boro's suggestion of McCaber might suit his pursuit of Nogrod better, but it is not very beneficial in general. I wouldn't call him a cobbler over that, but his approach is too fixed.

In fact, Lommy, reading along your posts more, you're starting to look ok with me again.

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm suspicious of Mac, solely for the reason that he said my Nogrod case looked far fetched.

Then you suspect me solely for the reason that we differ in opinion.

[Thinlómien]

1, 2, 3, 4, will not get too suspicious of Mac, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ...

And I have no idea what to make of his and Boro's little quarrel. *shrugs* It feels unlikely they're both innocent. Currently I feel either (if not both ) of them is a cobbler. *another shrug*

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

1, 2, 3, 4, will not get too suspicious of Mac, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ...

[Thinlómien]

Mac you're cute. But I do suspect you nevertheless. I admit I was being a bit generic in my comments about you, but what I said is true: you agree with others a lot, especially with Rikae. It makes me cautious, because normally you disagree with the majority a bit more. It could be just random, but I doubt that. You seem a tad too eager to please which is why I doubt you're totally honest. But I don't know if you're a mutineer or a co-conspirator. The kill choices don't look particularily you-ish although otherwise you strike me as more mutineerish than co-conspirational. I wonder, though, if a co-conspirator wouldn't be a bit more original in his suspicions - unless he felt they're targeted at totally wrong people. Boromir then, he seems like his innocent self a lot, but you're doing good job of making him look more suspicious and Rikae made a good point about him being less tricksy than usual (although that could be just due to not having tp around to play with ). I think it is very well possible he's a co-conspirator (and thus a dangerous one) but I doubt he's a mutineer.

[Thinlómien]

I will be voting and going to bed in 0,5-2,5 hours. I hope there's a lot of discussion before that. Currently I'd feel the most comfortable voting Sally or Mac, and also quite ok voting Gwath.

Sally is not around enough so I keep forgetting she's suspicious and thus may waver at the critical moment.
Macalaure may well talk me around from suspecting him, especially if he's aided by Rikae.
Gwath seems like too easy a solution, especially as more or less everybody is willing to get rid of him. It just goes too easily for my taste.

[Thinlómien]

By the way, where are all our resident ghosts (except for Greenie)? Mira and Wilwa's absences are explainable, Eomer said he'd be busy, but what about McCab and Annu? Annu has been around but not shared much thoughts with us - would it be hasty to conclude he was a mutineer and is thus not too concerned to come and help the village with his points?

I also miss some people who are alive - I'd love to hear more of Sally, Shasta, Kath and Eönwë... (and Nogrod, but he won't be back until toMorrow.)

[Macalaure]

Mac you're cute.

you agree with others a lot, especially with Rikae.

Not sure whether that's true. Maybe because there is so little evidence? Anyway, I disagreed with Nogrod a lot on Day1, and with Boro afterwards. I think I only agree with Rikae's suspicion of Gwath and Inzy.

You seem a tad too eager to please which is why I doubt you're totally honest.

Is that why me backing off from you made you more suspicious? Well, I didn't suspect you at all until today, because of being Rikae's claimed pick and your defensiveness about my suspicion of you because of this combined with the missed kill. However, after you moved on from that, I found myself agreeing with the things you said again. Rest assured that I still have half an eye on you, though.

The kill choices don't look particularily you-ish

Now, that one you have to explain: What is a me-ish kill choice?

but you're doing good job of making him look more suspicious

Really? I am suspicious of him, but I don't think I actually made that many points against him. (I might still, much later, when I have time to concentrate.)

(all quotes by Lommy)

[Boromir88]

Then you suspect me solely for the reason that we differ in opinion.~Mac

If you want to put it like that, sure, but I also consider you a "vote for me just waiting to happen."

It's not a mere difference of opinion, it's how easily you dismissed the suspicion, instead of countering with any reasons why you disagree, you said it was far-fetched. The end. But I would feel more comfortable lynching Nogrod than you at this point, as well my feeling primarily is Nogrod is a mutineer.

Call it guilt by association, which I'm sure is all Nerwen and Rikae were pointing out between Gwath and me, but I'm a hypocrit.

Hahahaha, now I have a personal psychologist. But sadly my answer remains "yes, but" and you just have to accept it.~Lommy

Yeesh, everyone assumes I'm a nasty, manipulating, trickster all the time, always up to something. I'm not, I'm pretty blunt and straightforward about everything, don't know why everyone assumes I'm always up to mind games.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boro the Bore

Yeesh, everyone assumes I'm a nasty, manipulating, trickster all the time, always up to something. I'm not, I'm pretty blunt and straightforward about everything, don't know why everyone assumes I'm always up to mind games.

Nah, I assumed you were a clever, entertaining trickster (I actually learned a few tricks from watching you). But if you insist, I'll consider you boring.

[Eönwë]

Hmm... after reading over the posts toDay, it seems that it has mostly been "morning talk". Nothing's really happened yet, and people are still mostly commenting on yesterday.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

Is that why me backing off from you made you more suspicious? Well, I didn't suspect you at all until today, because of being Rikae's claimed pick and your defensiveness about my suspicion of you because of this combined with the missed kill. However, after you moved on from that, I found myself agreeing with the things you said again. Rest assured that I still have half an eye on you, though.

I was not actually assuming you were trying to please me by backing away, but something about how you backed away did seem somehow wrong to me. You know, like a wolf thinking "okay, this case is not worth pursuing right now, let's leave it for later".

Originally Posted by Mac

Now, that one you have to explain: What is a me-ish kill choice?

I don't know, actually... just the list Greenie-Eomer-no kill doesn't seem like you, but now that you provoked me to think about it more, it doesn't really seem like anyone. Except maybe Nerwen - don't ask why - and that doesn't make much sense. Or I don't want to think of it making sense now. Ooh, I just got a brilliant idea but I'll keep my mouth shut for a while before saying more.

Originally Posted by Mac

Really? I am suspicious of him, but I don't think I actually made that many points against him.

Yes - my second thoughts of him are partly due to you and Rikae's suspicion against him, and that's no small part. I think I'm still on my way to learning not to trust anyone except myself in ww, but I'm progressing slowly because it's so tempting to trust nice and smart people and sometimes it's also very beneficial. But I have the feeling that too often I'm sitting here and accusing people or agreeing with them and waiting for someone to tell me "you're right here, you're wrong there" and solve it for me (maybe one of the reasons why I want Nogrod back so badly ).


edit: xed with Rikae and Eönwë

[Mithalwen]

OK I know I have been quiet but I tend to think our agressors be quiet or absent sinceI can't imagine any of the people who are being very active here wasting a kill chance in the special circumstances of this game. I know that I always try to set up a provisional kill or default if I am wolfing (in Brinniel's last game I did so because my packmates werein wildly divergent timezones and we never got to talk. I can't imagine Lommie or Mac or Boro not bothering or not having the confidence to request a kill on their own authority. Much more likely to have a conspirator among the talkers.

I think there would have been a challenge by now if Greenie were not the seer - so that clears Nerwen.

I therefore do suspect the quiet more and wonder about Nogrod... now I am sure he would impress on packmates the necessity of getting a kill but what if the second in command was unexpectedly unavailable... hmm

So now and quickly I must decide my vote. Aieee

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't think so, Mith. With roles not being revealed immediately after death, and Greenie-Seer having only cleared Nerwen before her death, should Greenie not be our actual Seer, the real Seer has nothing to lose by not challenging Greenie at this point.

My own thought is that, whether or not we decide to use today to lynch a ghost, we need to decide pretty quick. I for one agree with Lommy; yes, we lost one person, which is usual for a Night phase, but we're slightly better off in that Wilwa could have been a mutineer. Rikae has a point as well; if we're ahead now, we'll be ahead later. But I'm of the opinion that the longer we have to pore over solid information, the better off we'll be, so I think that lynching someone who's already died once today has merit. My personal suggestions are Annu and Greenie, as I think Mira's lynch points to playstyle differences as opposed to alignment.

[Thinlómien]

I must say I like that latest post of Mith's a lot, she makes a few good points - especially the one about Greenie and Nerwen. I'm pretty confident of her innocence now. But I'm still a bit hesitant to say Nogrod would kill Greenie on Night2 without a specific reason - I'm sure he would not extend such courtesy on Night3 but it was Night2... maybe if his mates pressured him and he had no better option to offer or he went to sleep early for once and left it up to them... or if they saw some gifted-ish in Greenie. (Or then I'm misjudging Nogrod and all this speculation is in vain. )


edit: xed with Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I would call it metagaming, Lommy, and metagaming is bad.

[Thinlómien]

I don't think there's any point in lynching Greenie. If she is a bluffing cobbler - which I doubt - we won't gain anything (except uncertainity about a certain person) but we will risk our seer by showing to the wolves that s/he's still alive! And if she's the real seer, we will have a known innocent which we already kind of have and we lose the only ghost who's made an effort to be helpful this far.

As for lynching Annu, well, I have the feeling it would reveal nothing but I should maybe reread yesterDay to judge it better. I think the biggest problem is simply that her lynch was sort of a side issue especially towards the end of the Day and if I recall correctly, not nearly everybody was invlolved in the debate about her.


edit: xed with Shasta

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I think there would have been a challenge by now if Greenie were not the seer - so that clears Nerwen.

I wouldn't necessarily assume that the real seer would have revealed by now if Greenie isn't. It could be that the real seer hasn't found any wolves yet. However, it does make Nerwen seem innocent because I assume that the seer would have dreamt her, and if she had been a mutineer then they may have decided to reveal because of this, which would incriminate both Nerwen and Greenie.

Not sure if that made any sense...

edit: x-ed with Shasta #498 and later

[Inziladun]

I have only a couple of hours before I have to leave, and I know I won't make it back before DL, so I thought I'd offer a few things.

About the double lynches: I see them as mostly a waste of time. If we decided to do so, we could only afford to once, and the odds of learning anything useful just don't seem that great. Better to take action and try and make the lynches count.
Boro has seemed an advocate of trying one the whole game, but I don't think we ought to unless our backs are totally against the wall. And saying McCaber might be considered? He's backed off from that, but I see that as the worst choice for a double.
Rikae I must now take at her word, for lack of any counter reveals, either from the dead or from the living. She's voted for Gwath, who I found a bit unnerving before, but I'm not ready to vote him just yet.
I think I'm actually leaning toward Sally at the moment. The remark about the protector she made after Rikae's reveal was bizarre, and she passed it off as a throwaway. And there was the possible slip about assuming Wilwa innocent.
Where Kath be? Interesting to get her take on events.

x'd with Ëonwë and Lommy- good points both

[Mithalwen]

That is true but when we know so little, and can presume the ranger is living then known innocents might be as much use.

Actually that is an argument for NOT double killing... if it might reveial a dead ranger.....

[Eönwë]

Also, I'd just like to say that the fact that the wolves haven't lynched Nerwen yet is a little suspicious... Perhaps they think she is a co-conspirator.

edit: x-ed x2

[Boromir88]

Yes - my second thoughts of him are partly due to you and Rikae's suspicion against him, and that's no small part. I think I'm still on my way to learning not to trust anyone except myself in ww, but I'm progressing slowly because it's so tempting to trust nice and smart people and sometimes it's also very beneficial. But I have the feeling that too often I'm sitting here and accusing people or agreeing with them and waiting for someone to tell me "you're right here, you're wrong there" and solve it for me (maybe one of the reasons why I want Nogrod back so badly ).~Lommy

It's not about trusting people, you can't really 'trust' people in WW. It's being able to trust yourself, trust not only the 'evidence' but your instincts, feelings...etc. Your answer was 'yes but...," ok I guess I will have to accept that, but trust that instinct until you have reasons not to.

Nah, I assumed you were a clever, entertaining trickster (I actually learned a few tricks from watching you). But if you insist, I'll consider you boring.~Rikae

Thanks! (I mean about the entertaining and learning tricks), I don't want to be considered boring. But the truth is I need people to have fun with, which is why I may have been in an intense, cautious mode earlier, but hopefully I'm not switching over to boring.

I'm not sure what I think about Shasta's arrival...I mean I like it, because it looks really good, but it's a bit of a surprise, it's caught me off guard...hmm

Edit: crossing and I'm not sure what I want to think of this spur of posts!

[Thinlómien]

Shasta, Eönwë - ooh you are actually correct, now that I think of it. In this game, the seer does not have to be afraid of taking his/her dreams to the grave with him and take chances on when to reveal, since s/he can always do it as a ghost. But I still trust Greenie and live in the sad belief we've lost the seer already, it seems the most porbable to me.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I would call it metagaming, Lommy, and metagaming is bad.

Hey, what's meta-gaming? That I say Nogrod wouldn't be inclined to kill Greenie so early?


edit: xed with Zil, Mith, Eönwë and Boro

[Eönwë]

In addition to last post:

Or maybe they're just messing with our minds, planting a seed of doubt in Nerwen's innocence, trying to make us lynch the only innocent we have proven to us, while they sit back and enjoy.

edit: x-ed x2 again.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Also, I'd just like to say that the fact that the wolves haven't lynched Nerwen yet is a little suspicious... Perhaps they think she is a co-conspirator.

I have been thinking about that too, and what you say is one explanation, another is that they know that she's not gifted and are thus not wasting a kill on her, third is that they may be afraid the ranger is protecting her and what I see as the most probable reason is that killing her would give us concrete information and they probably want to keep us in the dark as much as possible.


edit: xed with Eönwë - exactly, that too!

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm pretty confident of her innocence now. But I'm still a bit hesitant to say Nogrod would kill Greenie on Night2 without a specific reason -

Maybe unless he guessed she were gifted, I don't know. I won't vote for him in absentia today. But I may well go for Sally. She sort of fits my offender profile ...

[Mithalwen]

Because if is fairly safe to assume night kills are ordos or conspirators, killing Nerwen would pretty well eliminate any doubts about Greenie's seerhood.

[Mithalwen]

Just that after a whole eveniong of displacement activity I realised I should get a grip before I turned in to a pumpkin....

[Boromir88]

I'm not so much suspicious of Mith's post as I am, the sudden spurt of posts after it...I mean after a pretty slow day, between mostly Lommy, Rikae, Mac, and myself, everyone starts popping out of the woodworks.

Maybe I'm not taking into consideration timezones and people being out for various reasons, it's just interesting how multiple people popped out.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm not so much suspicious of Mith's post as I am, the sudden spurt of posts after it...I mean after a pretty slow day, between mostly Lommy, Rikae, Mac, and myself, everyone starts popping out of the woodworks.

Maybe I'm not taking into consideration timezones and people being out for various reasons, it's just interesting how multiple people popped out.

Well, I'm in the same timezone as Mith is (and I usually am here around this time anyway), but I don't know why Shasta suddenly chose to appear...

edit: also, by the way he started his post, it seems like Shasta had just been following the thread, and decided to comment at that point.

[Eönwë]

Anyway, I have to go in the next half-hour, so it's nice that there are more people around.

But everyone suddenly seems quite innocent to me toDay...

[Mithalwen]

++Sally

BTW If someone has time a vote summary might be an idea incase there is the risk of more modfire,...

Goodnight.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm not so much suspicious of Mith's post as I am, the sudden spurt of posts after it...I mean after a pretty slow day, between mostly Lommy, Rikae, Mac, and myself, everyone starts popping out of the woodworks.
Maybe I'm not taking into consideration timezones and people being out for various reasons, it's just interesting how multiple people popped out.

Well it does seem scarily like "ok now somebody else posted I may have to jump in too and stop hiding in my corner" but I won't start pointing fingers at people because of that - maybe our loudmouth debate scared off some people who were encouraged by less aggressive and loud others appearing? Not that we were actually being aggressive...

Originally Posted by Boro

It's not about trusting people, you can't really 'trust' people in WW. It's being able to trust yourself, trust not only the 'evidence' but your instincts, feelings...etc. Your answer was 'yes but...," ok I guess I will have to accept that, but trust that instinct until you have reasons not to.

Yes but () Dr Boro, my problem is that I'm going in cycles - game by game I learn to be more and more self-confident and once I finally start trsuting myself I get everything totally wrong and then I have to start building the trust all over again. *sigh* But don't you worry about that and I never said I'm not trusting my gut-feeling of you for now - I am - but I keeping it open for revision (which is just sensible).


edit: xed with Eönwë and Mith

[Thinlómien]

I should vote and go to sleep soon. It's not like I'm tired, but it's soon 2am here and I'd better be sensible. I'm tempted to vote Sally but I don't like toDay feels to be turning into a huge Sallywagon - either her mates are abandoning her for good or we're mistaken and she's innocent, and in both cases there'll be too little to analyse toMorrow. I was leaning towards voting her but now I might vote Mac just to give an option.

[Thinlómien]

Rikae -> Gwath
Nerwen -> Gwath
Mith -> Sally

Gwath 2, Sally 1

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Lommy

another is that they know that she's not gifted and are thus not wasting a kill on her

How would they know that? If Greenie is a cobbler, she's just guessing - and they don't, I assume, know that she isn't. Unless that was a slip of some sort...