T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Aganzir]

So Mac you want to double lynch Fea and someone? Sounds rather like it.

I can say I'll be here for deadline and won't tolerate a double lynch which includes me.

edit: xed with sally

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So Mac you want to double lynch Fea and someone? Sounds rather like it.

I can say I'll be here for deadline and won't tolerate a double lynch which includes me.

edit: xed with sally

I'm not sure if I'm a fan of the double lynch idea, no matter who it includes. (Obviously if I'm involved I'm all for it.... ) We do double our chances of getting a baddie, but if we're wrong about Fea then we could potentially kill two more innocents. I'm not going to fight a double lynch, but I'd just like to express my opinion against the idea.

Awwww, poor Agan....scared of being double lynch fodder....

Nothing's going to harm you, not while I'm around....

Unless you're a critic or Walter, that is. Then it's a case of....

The lives of the wicked should be made brief
For the rest of us death will be a relief


*scampers off to listen and prepare for the rest of the day*

[Lariren Shadow]

Boro, I've come to expect tricks but am I wrong in believing this:

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

The soulmates are not lovers in the usual sense .. both are ordos and they are not out for themselves. That is why I didn't call them lovers....

So therefore the theory that Fea could be a soulmate and her soulmate could be something special doesn't really hold. Unless I shouldn't believe that.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

I can say I'll be here for deadline and won't tolerate a double lynch which includes me.

The more reason to try it. Whatever the outcome, it's gonna be fun.

Too bad Sally already used that Princess Bride quote.

[Aganzir]

Sally is giving off ranger hints, eh?

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

So therefore the theory that Fea could be a soulmate and her soulmate could be something special doesn't really hold. Unless I shouldn't believe that.

Yes but if she's a soulmate and dies her mate would get a revenge kill.
I find it rather unlikely though that tgwbs would go like that against an innocent. It would be more efficient to declare her innocent so clearly that she'd die once tgwbs's role was revealed.

[Boromir88]

If I'm a cobbler and I dreamed of Boro, I wouldn't bring attention to it. Or at least I'd try to make it look like something it wasn't, if I was forced to acknowledge him.~Fea

The critics lag one day behind in your information, also I would assume it would be a pretty nifty way to let them know "Hey I'm your spy! Don't kill me!" The cobbler usually is just as likely a wolf target as anyone else, but with the sneak ability, it's a clever way to key the critics into the fact that you're their cobbler.

I agree with Boro about lynching Fea, especially if the other candidate is me. I'm gradually getting more afraid also of him though.~Agan

Frightened Agan? If you be innocent you don't have to be. Believe that or not, your choice.

The most likely candidate for that is Aganzir, of course, but I'd be willing to listen if someone suggests somebody better.~Mac

And what if Fea has found the divo or one of the lovers? True, now that the Seer is gone, I think the Cobblers use is coming to an end, and maybe Fea is taking the noose for the critics.

But, a double lynch at this time could be dangerous, we were lucky on Day 1 it was only two ordos. I have no idea about Agan, considering what we have concluded about Fea, it doesn't look good that they were paired together by the seer. But we're talking about two dreams here, one we know was Fea, the other it's still up in there air. I'm not convinced he spotted two baddies in one night.

Also, let's be honest, we're talking about the other lynchee being Agan, who else are you willing to take a blind guess on? Strongbow? He's probably an Ordo. Maybe Cailin, she scares me. And now that Eomer's popped in and Legate's got votes - oh let's just get 'em all.

But anyway I hope you get the point, we have an hour and half left before the deadline. I say we take a sure shot with Fea, regroup, recharge, and definitely get more organized tomorrow. Trying a double lynch at this time, I think spells disaster.

Edit: x'ed and I mean "two baddies in two nights" not one. :rollseyes:

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Frightened Agan? If you be innocent you don't have to be. Believe that or not, your choice.

No it's just some things you've said and the way you've communicated with Fea. I would have to read your posts to elaborate on it, I'll do it some time later if need be. Now I'm busy with Mac.

[Boromir88]

No it's just some things you've said and the way you've communicated with Fea. I would have to read your posts to elaborate on it, I'll do it some time later if need be.~Agan

I'll give you that, but try to distinguish between the communication of two people in cahoots. And the communication of somebody innocent who will miss Fea's spirit and passion, no matter what her role is. Whether baddie or not, Fea brings a chutzpah to opera that I will greatly miss, but that won't get in the way of what needs to be done.

P.S. Lari, my lovers thing was more of an outrageous, off-the-wall theory, and not to have been taken seriously at all. Sorry for the confusion.

P.P.S But not totally, think about it, once one soulmate dies, the other gets revenge killing power - thus making the revengeful soulmate more powerful than the other.

[Kath]

And back.

Just a couple of notes on the most recent posts as I've just read them. Firstly I don't like that Fea has disappeared without voting. Yeah the Legate thing was stupid of us but if Mith decides to modfire that is up to her, and I think she would be far less cross if we then did something constructive rather than wussing out like Fea has seemed to do. I have been agreeing with those who think her suspicious based on tgwbs' posts but this to me makes her look supsicious on her own merits.

Also, a double lynch? I'm not sure that's a brilliant idea. We've already had one double lynch this game and it did us no good.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'll give you that, but try to distinguish between the communication of two people in cahoots. And the communication of somebody innocent who will miss Fea's spirit and passion, no matter what her role is.

No there were also some earlier things I noticed. I skimmed through her posts yesterday (at least I wasn't totally idle during that mad msn chat) to look at how she had communicated with people and there was something that set me off. Can't remember what it was though.

Deadline is quarter past again, right?

edit: xed with Kath

[Boromir88]

Can't remember what it was though.~Agan

Do whatever you have to to save yourself tomorrow Agan. Throw whoever you have to under the semi, the means don't matter, I understand.

And as far as I know, we end on the dot today.

Edit: By "on the dot" I mean 6:15...on the dot.

[Mithalwen]

Now I find your ridiculous behaviour was due to IM discussion I am absolutely ropeable. I really don't know what to do and am so close to pulling the plug on the whole thing you wouldn't believe.

How dare you!

Have you any idea how much of my time this takes up?

I am not joking now I really am furious.

[satansaloser2005]

Blah. Looks like I'm around for the rest of the morning (by the time I made it into church it'd be mostly over anyway....I had some things to take care of that took longer than they were supposed to, gorrammit) so I may as well speak a bit more on the double lynching situation.


Here are the two(ish) people I would risk a double lynch with:
Gollum: he's not even pulling his weight in the village, and what he does say seems off to me
Cailin/Eomer: I feel awful saying this, but I just don't like them. (You know what I mean. My wording just sucks.) They haven't said a whole lot, but it's just one of those vibe....things....Also, I haven't seen much discussion about them so maybe putting them on my suspect list will at least get discussion going.


I also have a bad feeling about Mac, but to much less of an extent right now, so while I'm not going to ignore him, I don't want to lynch him toDay.


EDIT: x'd with Boro, who is correct about the DL as far as I know (and I meant to answer that question in my post but got distracted by shiny objects so thank you) and a very cross moddess. Is it okay to laugh at the fact that I crossed with someone cross? (Sorry, English major/generally dumb humor)

[Kath]

Mith, we apologise unreservedly. Well I do, and I suspect the others think along the same lines. We weren't making a mockery of the game, we were just being silly.

I'm finding myself quite unaware of the time, I think it's because it's a Sunday. I'm going to vote.

- - LEGATE (just in case)

++FEA

For the reasons in my last post. From what tgwbs said it does look like her found her to be something, whether cobbler or wolf. The way she went off without voting makes it look like she's trying to play it safe which makes me think she might be the Cobbler - she doesn't know who the Critics are and doesn't want to commit either way.

I'm going to hang around, might go back and look the posts over again, but I wanted to vote now in case I lose track of time.

[Mithalwen]

I need to think about this.

I didn't realise til now that this was the result of some off game plan rather than a spontaeneous thing. I am really upset, hurt and angry. At the moment I am not prepared to continue. I certainly can't make a decision which is fair to those who did not participate whenI am this angry. I wouldn't hold your breath.

Any comments in the meantime to the admin thread.

[Brinniel]

It seems to start with Boromir who said this in one post:

Originally Posted by Boro

I would prefer Ilya, Gollum, or Cailin, over Strongbow, sally, or Shasta, as far as submarines. [...]

I think Ilya is more likely to be a wolf than the other two I mentioned in the first sentence. It's arguable as to whether she's really submarine though, because she's posted the most out of them, but she's a submarine in the sense that she's going rather unnoticed.

As helpful as her quoting has been, it scares me, because it reminds me of so much of Brinn's strategy in The Republic. She did admit that's what she thought when posting, but I'm still not convinced she's entirely innocent. Also, I'm scratching my head as to what she saw from me to suspect Mac. Maybe it was from yesterday? The "oh and what Boro said about you too" is just - well suspicious.

On the flip side, Ilya would probably be the riskiest choice, and that is she will be participating more so than the other submarines. But, her behavior today seems to fit more with a Cobbler who could be posting a bunch of stuff and really not say anything about it. Plus saying some things that really don't make sense. Or a critic who saw how successful Brinn was with this strategy and tried the same.

Five minutes later, Fea lists who she's concerned about:

Originally Posted by Fea

Concerned
Boro
Ilya
Gwath

Aganzir considers voting Ilya, though she's slightly hesitant:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'd rather vote Ilya than Bowie although voting either of them would feel unfair as I don't have much of an idea about them.

Then comes Mac who gives a whole post suspecting Ilya:

Originally Posted by Mac

Some thoughts on Ilya, who recently rised in my suspicions.

Compare #195 to #223: First she doesn't know where the Nogrod case came from, then she says other people put suspicions against Nogrod (and Menel) in her mind and thus keeps herself out of the vote-fray. Also, first she considers voting Gollum for his case against Strongbow, then she votes Strongbow herself.

Today, while I appreciate all the work she put into all her quote-collections, I'm a bit unhappy with it because there's not much of her own opinions, which I consider more helpful about summary-posts than the summary. She does give her opinions later, but they are kind of simplistic putting-into-boxes like.

In #324 she defends Gwath in a not too convincing manner, which, since I'm suspicious of Gwath, makes me suspicious of her, too. There's also her point against me, which does not make a lot of sense, as Boro remarked, too.

If Ilya should be evil, I think a close look at Brinn might be justified - there seems to be a connection.

Fea comments:

Originally Posted by Fea

Mac, you're my hero, it was Ilya's quotes that set me off.

I'll explain soon.

Kath rushes in with comment about everyone, but votes Ilya:

Originally Posted by Kath

Ilya - says Agan and Lariren started the suspicions against Nog. Has done nothing but post quotes. Now that can be helpful, but not when we get none of her own comments in there. Did post with her thoughts, but there is some really odd reasoning behind them. Why would killing phantom be something Strongbow would want to do over anyone else? If Lariren was 'just kind of agreeing' and then changed direction then why is that suspicious? It just feels suspicious. What was that about a 48 Day, as we didn't have one the Day before why would she assume it?

++ILYA

I'd like to have gone through a bit more thoroughly but from what I've seen so far I think that posting all the quotes and the voting tally is trying to look helpful while actually not being and that the reasoning behind her suspicions seems very odd.

Mac makes his vote:

Originally Posted by Mac

I sense the danger of a last-minute bandwaggon against me, but since I can retract my vote if necessary, I'll vote now:

++Ilya

Clearly my top suspect right now, and there seems to be an actual chance to lynch her today, so no reason to hesitate for me.

(One thing: Why did he worry a last-minute bandwagon would go against him? The only one I saw who suspected him was Aganzir. Nervous much?)

Agan votes:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think I'm voting

++Ilya

too. Besides if her role is revealed I'll have some actual evidence concerning Mac.

Fea builds a case against Ilya:

Originally Posted by Fea

I was flipped out by Ilya's quote lists mostly because when I see quotes in anything I'm reading, I have a nasty habit of skipping them, because most of the time when something I read has a quoted off section like that, it's written in a language I don't know. Consequently, posts that consist almost entirely of quotes tend to completely throw me off because

1) the person looks like they're making points, but in reality they're just copy/pasting other people's out-of-context comments

2) my brain is conditioned to all but ignore them anyway (this is probably a trait singular to me, as it's caused by reading massive amounts of art and lit theory).

Basically, when I saw the lists of quotes, I harkened back to Freshman Writing Class and thought "Okay, so you filled up page space. What's your point?" I was bothered that Ilya didn't have an argument that she was supporting, instead it seemed like she was just organizing.

Which while I admit that I OCD adore organizing, I kept waiting and waiting for some sort of reasoning as to what Ilya actually thought, as opposed to what Ilya's organization skills are.

I was thrown off wholly by having to sit my way through what felt like a lot of carefully wasted space without having the payoff of Ilya actually giving us anything personal to go on.

It's like judging the opinion of somebody who's reading a script, you know? I want your own words, not somebody else's.

Probably why I write the stuff I do, and ignore the stuff with MLA citations...

I apologize that this looks like a bandwagon last minute, but I'm also not willing to cause a double lynch (or even get close) today by voting Gwath (plus I don't have time to substantiate any arguments)

so

++Ilya

Boromir votes:

Originally Posted by Boro

There will be at least another. I was with-holding for reasons I don't care to explain, as it seems unecessary now.

++Ilya

The Ilya bandwagon occurred in the last hour and a half...and some of it seems artificial to me. At least one evil player was involved, I'm sure, if not more.

Boromir looks the most innocent of those. He's the first to consider Ilya, and his thought process looks genuine as he brings up both the ups and downs of voting her.

Fea is quick to echo anyone who suspects Ilya, then builds a huge case against her at the last-minute in an effort to justify her vote. Seems suspicious to me.

Aganzir suddenly considers Ilya after everyone else does. On one hand, the fact that she's more hesitant makes her look more innocent. But then again, she could easily be bluffing since she knows any hesitation might make her look better.

Mac is the first to dedicate a whole post against Ilya. I would say his jumping the bandwagon look most suspicious of the bunch.

Kath is the first to actually vote Ilya, but only after suspicion against her has already begun. I'd say she looks more innocent because she was obviously in a rush when making the post; I don't know how much of the current discussion she had in mind at the time. Also, she didn't know deadline had been extended 15 minutes.

PS: Mith, we all truly apologise for the whole vote. We really weren't trying to upset you.

EDIT: X-posted

[Gollum the Great]

I've been behind practically the whole game (and for that I apologize), but what is everyone else apologizing for? Could someone please enlighten poor Smeagol?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Gollum the Great

I've been behind practically the whole game (and for that I apologize), but what is everyone else apologizing for? Could someone please enlighten poor Smeagol?

Several of us were all in an MSN chat last night being goofy (but not talking about the game) and decided it would be funny if we all voted for Legate (he was part of the chat as well) at the same time. We thought that when everybody logged on, they'd shake their heads and slap our wrists and that the game would go on as normal.

Except that it made Mith sad, and now we all feel terrible about the whole situation.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Gollum the Great

I've been behind practically the whole game (and for that I apologize), but what is everyone else apologizing for? Could someone please enlighten poor Smeagol?

Heh. Poor Gollum. Yes, love, allow me to explain.

Some of us in our infinite (lack of) wisdom decided it would be funny to 'lynch' Legate toDay. No, Legate is not in the game, nor was he ever in the game. We were just having a bit of fun, but it was poorly received and so (naturally) we feel terrible and are thus apologizing. We weren't trying to upset anyone, but obviously didn't think it through very well.


Also, any questions/further posts should go to the Admin thread, per Mith's instructions. Play is currently suspended and will/may continue at some point, but for now we're not to post on this topic.

Hope that clears things up~!

EDIT: x'd with Miss Fea.

[Mithalwen]

Right while Nogrod has put a lot of the situation correctly on the admin thread , I want to speak for myself.

I do not expect that WW game players do not speak to each other at all off game - I know many of us are friends (or related) and incidentally, personally, I don't intend to let this effect those friendships. I do accept that this was thoughtlessness not malice but the fact is that you put me in a horrible situation and caused me a lot of upset.

This game of deception is based on trust that other that special roles discussion concerning the game is on the game thread. To have half the extant players form a clique to make an in game joke is unnacceptable . This is not a private game but open to all downers not just the ones the mod knows also on LJ or Facebook. I hope you can see that the behaviour was unfair. It crossed the boundary of careless remark. I know that it must be particularly hard for some players not to talk but I know as a "lone" player you sometimes get the feeling that you are at a disadvantage, so I have to say (without wishing to offend anyone) that I wasn't particulary sorry that there was only one player from some notable werewolfing households. Social interraction fine - discussing votes even joke votes wrong.I wasn't ecstatic when I was tipped off about this incident but it was the IM aspect of it that was the main problem and how that would affect the players who were "out of the loop". .

However I am going to let the game go ahead. No one is modfired.

Day will end 6pm tomorrow because frankly I need a night off from the lot of you.

[Mithalwen]

This is carthartic ...


"See the little goblin, see his little feet , And his little nosey-wosey -- isn't the goblin sweet?"

... I'm sure there was something very important I had to do to all of you this morning.


Oh just get on with it....

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm not going to be around much today. Don't take it personally, I'm just in the mood for a day off too after the events of yesterday.

--Legate,

in case that was needed.

[Boromir88]

Understandable Fea, anyone take some time, take a breather.

But don't let this hang over your head like a black cloud, and mope around. It's done, it's past, can't change it, but we can change the mood and game play in the following days. We owe it to our Mith to make this an opera that's worth an encore.

[Lariren Shadow]

Ok back in the game.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

(One thing: Why did he worry a last-minute bandwagon would go against him? The only one I saw who suspected him was Aganzir. Nervous much?)

Not really true, I did too.

List that I made yesterday:

Sally: Still seems innocent. Nothing really much else except adding to who should be double lynched with Fea today(if she gets lynched and if it’s a double lynch). Not really anything too off about that.

Fea: Well it would be silly to say anything besides she’s guilty. Clearly. She even admits to it(sort of, in her own way). So lynching her today would not be a bad choice.

Brinn: Still innocent to me. Nothing really more to say on that one.

Kath: Again innocent, nothing against her at all.

Agan: I’m leaning towards innocent but still keeping my eye on her. She’s a good player from what I’ve heard and read that makes me think she could have something up her sleeve.

Gwath: Has said nothing today. Either he’s busy in RL or he’s a critic trying not to be anywhere near Fea at all. Biding his time and trying to regroup. Or he could just have been busy on a Friday and Saturday.

Shasta: Hasn’t said much today either. I still have my suspicions of him and his absence adds to them like Gwath’s. I would really like to hear more from both of them though, not sure if that’s enough to add their names to the lynch pile with Fea’s.

Strongbow: Where oh where can Strongbow be? Nowhere to be seen. Nothing at all so I have no idea. I wouldn’t mind, however, voting Strongbow off in a double lynch, mostly because Strongbow hasn’t said anything.

Mac: Still has my suspicions but not as bad as before. His involvement in the Ilya vote was interesting though. There were only two of us(Agan and myself) who considered his suspicious.

Gollum: Has posted a few things today but really hasn’t said much at all. I wish he would say more but is on my list of possible people to lynch if a double lynch is called for.

Boro: Has officially become suspicious to me because of all of his talk with Fea and secret code and warnings and such. It just doesn’t feel right or what someone innocent would do.

Cailin: Still hasn’t said but that’s been how they’ve played the whole time. They don’t seem guilty at all.

That's it for now, I should reevaluate by the end of toDay though.

[Mithalwen]

There is no need to withdraw the spoof votes. I really don't want to see that name again on this thread.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But don't let this hang over your head like a black cloud, and mope around.

Oh don't worry. Part of me being distant is to take a quick breather and get some different perspective. Most of it is because I've got international guests at the moment, on top of work and classes, and I want to make sure nobody in RL gets short changed, and that any conflicts are dealt with diplomatically. Anybody who follows my blog and caught the recent long post has an idea of what I'm up against.

But don't worry, I'll check in and keep up with what's going on, I'm just busy today.

[Mithalwen]

Well there is now plenty of time. you have over 24 hours still so hopefully by the end of this game day it will be all water under the bridge.

[Aganzir]

Hi I'm here. I'm not feeling too good, either, but given how little I've been able to participate thus far, I'm going to try to be of some help at least now.

Originally Posted by Boro

Do whatever you have to to save yourself tomorrow Agan. Throw whoever you have to under the semi, the means don't matter, I understand.

I certainly hope my points are at least considered if I happen to die.

I don't understand what this talk about double lynch is. Just because Fea is most likely a baddie, do we have to take a risk of lynching an innocent as well (and I'm not speaking only about a double lynch I'd be a part of)? Or is it the critics trying to minimize their loss? I think Mac is behind the suggestion and it doesn't make me feel any better about him.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Aganzir suddenly considers Ilya after everyone else does.

Yes after I decided to vote a quieter/less substantial player if I couldn't find reasons to justify a vote for someone else.

Originally Posted by Lari

Not really true, I did too.

Still I don't think two people are enough to cause a bandwagon when there are still so many people alive.

I don't think anyone has ever used deliberate absence as a tactic to go unnoticed - quiet players are usually quiet by their nature or RL hurries, not because they want to avoid attention. However I don't like it how many usually loud people are so silent now.

So the day continues another 24 hours, does it?

++Fea

edit: xed with Mith, Fea & Mith who already answered my question

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Well there is now plenty of time. you have over 24 hours still so hopefully by the end of this game day it will be all water under the bridge.

Water's back there, somewhere. *gestures back thataway*

And the bridge in question is... I dunno. Out of sight. Hug?

*disappearing off to try to zen away the past week's stress*

[Aganzir]

In a way I don't know what to make of Mac's 'Rikae told me...' things. If he's a wolf, it wouldn't be very nice to use reasons like that.

He suspected Menel for being too careful based on the three two-liners he had posted. I didn't find Menel suspicious then nor did I now that I read through his posts so I don't really see where Mac's coming from. Besides Menel is a rather easy day 1 target.
He found everyone more or less innocent (or unknown) but Brinn and me who Rikae warned him about, and Menel. I don't like his Menel suspicion very much. It looks like it was enough for him to came up with someone he could vote before leaving without any actual reasons.

In the post where he said he has to vote soon he also said this:

Would anyone please act very, very suspicious within the next half hour?

It trips my radar. It looks like what a wolf could say as they know most people (excluding the cobbler whom they don't want to kill) are innocent yet need to come up with proper suspicions. Saying that doesn't make Mac a wolf but it's scary nonetheless.

When tgwbs agreed with Mac about Menel being too careful but accused Mac of carefulness & not explaining his thought process at the same time, he replied:

What thought process?

I don't think I would have been suspicious of this otherwise but Boro accused me the same a while ago because Macwolf had done it. However I think our cases were different - I denied having a case against someone as I had merely been bringing up points against them while commenting on the day's happenings (plus there was a whole lot of misunderstanding concerning which post was talked about), but here Mac denies having any thought process as for why Menel seemed careful. Yes it's sometimes hard to elaborate, especially if it's a gut feeling, but he could at least have tried instead of downplaying suspicions like that.

He voted Menel with the resolution he had shown since the beginning. It looks like he had just in the beginning decided to chase Menel because he was easy enough.

Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.

*shakes head*

Okay then there's this. He explained it was a half-joke already but still I don't like it, just because I can remember a couple of Macwolves having the same I-told-you attitude.

He apologized Menel, saying he sounded very innocent later with his responses to Mac's vote. For the reference, here are all Menel's posts after Mac's vote: 170, 177, 187, 203. What exactly made him sound more innocent there?

Mac asked Boro why he thought his vote for Menel was an easy way to slide by the day. At least I had no problems realising what Boro meant.

He analysed day 1's votes. I won't bother quoting the whole thing here but if someone wants to see it, here's a link. I disagree on sally's retraction being somehow innocent-looking. Also a baddie would do it to avoid suspicion.
I don't understand this:

Aganzir's vote for Nogrod is consequent - she suspected him for a long time. Not suspicious, unless her suspicions before were fabricated.

Just what's the point in saying the part after the comma? I think it should be self-evident anyway, and besides he couldn't know if my suspicions were fabricated until either I was dead or my role revealed by the seer so I can see no reason why he said it unless to keep some random suspicion on me.

When I said I was growing suspicious of him because of those comments, he replied vaguely:

Originally Posted by Mac

But Aganzir, we've been wolves together once: you know that, when evil, I give every effort to appear the exact same way I do when innocent...

This doesn't actually even answer to the thing I said, ie that he reminded me of a wolfish Mac. He just circumvents the question by saying that as a wolf he tries to be just like when innocent. So what? Maybe it's just bad luck on my part but I can't remember any innocent Mac saying the things that first set off my alarm.

He didn't suspect me despite me bringing up points against him. Okay my points weren't very big but still. I don't know if he just found me innocent or if he wanted to avoid attention (not that he'd be afraid of me but negative attention is negative attention and can work as a foundation for larger suspicion). I can remember an innocent Mac retaliating to my suspicions, but I also remember an innocent Mac finding the ever-suspicious me innocent.

On day 2 she found Fea's vote suspicious bet decided to let her be because he thought phantom would figure her out sooner or later. He also found Brinn's vote suspicious and said he was a bit suspicious of tgwbs earlier but his posts since had looked innocent.
He thought Boro was innocentish and commented on his vote for Mac by 'Fair reasoning, fair placement.'

His main suspect was Gwath. After having a look at him he concluded that he has posted very little of substance and wondered if a critic tried to appear more helpful. He found Gwath's vote careless because of getting the bandwagon rolling. Mind you, Gwath had two suspects, and I think he had more of a reason to suspect Nog than Lari. Should he have voted her then, or come up with someone completely different? And what does it matter if he gets the bandwagon rolling? At least someone he suspected got lynched, and I'm rather certain Nog would've been lynched even if it wasn't for Gwath's vote. Mac is right, though, that Gwath didn't post about anyone else but those two. Nonetheless, Gwath as well as Menel are always rather easy to suspect, and I can't say I particularly like Mac gunning for those.

Of Ilya (whom he later ended up voting) he had nothing to say except that she had too many quotes. He also found her vote a throwaway. As the day went on Ilya started having some suspicions against Mac on grounds that weren't the best I've seen, which partly explains his later decision to vote her.

As for Mac's vote analysis, I think somebody also mentioned it but he didn't analyse those people who retracted to save Nog until later. Nog's innocence doesn't make those people innocent and I can see no reason to exclude the saving attempt from the analysis.
Also, why did my vote placement look evil? Because I voted after other people had said they didn't want Nog lynched?

Later on day 2 his main suspects were Fea and Gwath and he was also suspicious of Ilya and Brinn. If you don't count the throwaway vote thing, he didn't give proper reasons for suspecting Ilya until later.
I think we must wait till Fea's role is revealed to get a clear image of his suspicion. Wolf-on-wolf (or wolf-on-cobbler) is a possibility, especially if they had a reason to assume Fea had been dreamed of. I would imagine a cobbler Fea to be rather good at making her identity known to the wolves and a wolfish Mac to be quite good at catching the hints, and in that light his Fea suspicion could be an honest one. More on that after Fea's death.

Some twenty minutes before deadline Mac posted a small case against Ilya. I could agree with it but there were some things I don't really like. He found her not too convincing defence of Gwath suspicious because he was also suspicious of Gwath. Here's Ilya's defence he was referring to. Of course I now have the benefit of knowing Ilya was innocent, but I don't think her comment was suspicious.
What kind of connection did you see between Ilya and Brinn, Mac?

He voted Ilya on day 2, saying he could sense a last-minute bandwagon against him. I'm not going back to check every post from day 2 but as far as I'm aware only Ilya and me considered voting him seriously. Wolves usually tend to overestimate the amount of suspicion against them and that comment doesn't feel very good.

After some day 1 suspicion against Mac, tgwbs moved him gradually towards his innocent category which could speak in favour of Mac. However he was still listed as somewhat suspicious at the beginning of the day although not very close to the most suspicious end. In an earlier post tgwbs had said he didn't find Mac especially suspicious.
Dreaming of an innocent Mac might explain tgwbs's suspicion against me. On day 1 he called my points against Mac good whereas on day 2 he didn't like my suspicions against him anymore. There are many other dream candidates, though, but his opinion makes me feel a bit more uncertain about Mac.

In his analysis of tgwbs's posts, Mac reached the conclusion that he had probably dreamed of Fea and me and found us both baddies. Of course I am biased when talking about this as I am pretty certain of my own innocence, but I think he seems to be a bit too quick to jump to conclusions, being even ready to suggest a double lynch.

However, he definitely dreamt of Fea. Anything else is inconceivable. It is also quite inconceivable that tgwbs wrote one known-to-him baddie on the same line with an only suspected baddie. Therefore:

Night 1: Fea
Night 2: Aganzir

And by the way, there's still a chance he didn't dream of Fea but was just suspicious of her for other reasons (and was probably right). I don't know how likely that is but there is no way he could say for certain that I'm a baddie, and his putting me together with Fea makes me think he didn't dream of her either. Just because I don't think either that any seer would ever say a dreamed of baddie and someone not dreamed of are equally suspicious. You can call this a poor try if you wish but you shall see, you shall see.

Mac has been pursuing the Fea-and-Agan-are-guilty thing the whole day. He said if Fea and I are fellows I let go of Fea to save myself. Not exactly true because I found her suspicious already yesterday (to which Mac answers by saying it could be wolf-on-wolf). Also, he didn't believe me when I told I hadn't really comprehended tgwbs seemed to suspect me and the likely dreamed of baddie Fea just as much, and said omitting it from my post & pretending tgwbs didn't think so & hoping no one else would notice it was what he'd do as a wolf. Well, I was telling the truth. I'm not perfect believe it or not.

Mac accused Boro of being either malevolent or blinded by tgwbs's headache-talk for suggesting his first dream might not have been a wolf. I think he's overreacting. It's a bit dangerous to be so sure he's right. He wants to get Fea and me lynched and is rather persuasive about it - I think he looks too certain to be innocent. And if Fea is the cobbler she's done her duty or is needed no more & can be sacrificed since the critics already killed the seer.

Originally Posted by Mac to Fea

Given the evidence against you, a genuine statement of innocence and surprise would probably have been the only thing that could have saved you. Now only a miracle could.

Does that apply to me as well? I can tell you why I didn't make a genuine statement of innocence & surprise after tgwbs's death - it never occurred to me that he could have dreamed of me since he was suspicious of me. You're accusing Fea of that but what if she's innocent and thought the same as I did? And regardless of Fea's role I don't like that accusation. If she had actually done it you'd be saying now, 'She's Fea, she can easily pull that off. I would be much more willing to believe her if she wasn't trying to convince us about her innocence now.'

If there was any doubt about Fea being tgwbs's dream, Mac countered it eg by asking how the seer could have made it clearer that he wanted Fea lynched. His certainty about Fea's guilt added to his willingness to double lynch don't look very good on him. It looks as if he actually knows Fea is a baddie and wants the result of the lynch to not be too bad for his team. There are after all rather high chances that the other lynchee would be innocent.
He tries to justify it by saying that if Fea is the cobbler, lynching her is just what she wants us to do. But when has Fea actually been declared the cobbler? Yes she could be, but she could also be a critic. Or innocent.

In Mac's opinion I would be a good double lynch candidate along with Fea, but he's also willing to listen if someone comes up with someone better. So it's practically all the same to him who we lynch as long as it is a double lynch? If he really thought tgwbs had dreamed of me & found me guilty, wouldn't he be much more enthusiastic about getting me lynched? Yes I know it would be difficult to organize a double lynch but still. Or is he just wavering because he knows I'm innocent?

All in all I'm feeling quite bad about Mac.

I have a feeling I'm getting flu & I'm quite tired so I'm going to sleep.

I hope Mac appreciates this because it took me ages to finish.

[Macalaure]

All quotes by Aganzir.

I don't understand what this talk about double lynch is. Just because Fea is most likely a baddie, do we have to take a risk of lynching an innocent as well (and I'm not speaking only about a double lynch I'd be a part of)?

Risk? Chance!

Since Fea is a goner, we have the chance to lynch another baddie as well. Might go wrong, sure, but so can every lynch.

We are given an opportunity here and we should seize it!

Still I don't think two people are enough to cause a bandwagon when there are still so many people alive.

Ilya did, too. In fact, the way she voiced her suspicions against me was what got me on her track and made me take a close look at her on which I saw a couple of suspicious things which made me vote her. Also, I consider Boro to be a Mac-vote waiting to happen.

In a way I don't know what to make of Mac's 'Rikae told me...' things. If he's a wolf, it wouldn't be very nice to use reasons like that.

Rikae was more or less looking over my shoulder and told me this and that, so I saw no reason not to mention that. Has nothing to do with my role.

It looks like it was enough for him to came up with someone he could vote before leaving without any actual reasons.

I didn't point it out because I thought it to be obvious: the reason to leave that I had was RL. My suspicion of Menel was not much indeed, but all that I could come up with. Any other vote would have been random.

The "Would anyone please act very, very suspicious within the next half hour?" meant that I was largely clueless and was joking about somebody to please be obviously suspicious before I had to vote half an hour later. I seriously fail to see the scariness of that.

but here Mac denies having any thought process

You can't seriously take my jokes and hold them against me as evidence... sheesh

What exactly made him sound more innocent there?

No particular quote, just the way he retaliated his suspicion and vote. Seemed very innocent.

He didn't suspect me despite me bringing up points against him. Okay my points weren't very big but still.

Had nothing to do with their size, but whether they appeared to be honest and genuine. They seemed so to me, so I had no reason to counter the suspicion.

Mind you, Gwath had two suspects, and I think he had more of a reason to suspect Nog than Lari.

Yes, but, no offense, both suspicions were very weak. The carelessness was, in my opinion, that he didn't try harder to look for suspects. It's kind of hilarious that you accuse me of doing what defend Gwath for doing to a much larger extent.

and I'm rather certain Nog would've been lynched even if it wasn't for Gwath's vote.

That is most certainly wrong.

he didn't analyse those people who retracted to save Nog until later.

I did. I considered it innocentish, but I found that so obvious that I didn't use many words and had to elaborate later.

What kind of connection did you see between Ilya and Brinn, Mac?

Some of the things she found suspicious of others could have been applied to Brinn, too, but weren't. That made me suspicious. If you want me to, I can elaborate.

I think he's overreacting.

I was. I had just finished my analysis and then saw one that came to the opposite conclusion and ignored an important possibility (Fea=cobbler).

He tries to justify it by saying that if Fea is the cobbler, lynching her is just what she wants us to do. But when has Fea actually been declared the cobbler? Yes she could be, but she could also be a critic. Or innocent.

That's not the actual justification, just and additional point. She is almost certainly evil, and if she's the cobbler, we basically end up wasting a lynch, which is right up the cobbler's alley.

So it's practically all the same to him who we lynch as long as it is a double lynch?

Of course not. I want to double lynch the person that we consider most likely to be a critic. I think that is you, but if the other singers think otherwise (unless, of course, I really think that person is innocent) I'd be willing to give it a shot with him. We have a very good chance to lynch two baddies at once. We should take it.

I hope Mac appreciates this because it took me ages to finish.

Very, very much appreciated! It was fun to read and write these replies, though their length is unworthy of the analysis they are replying to.

You look neither more nor less suspicious to me than before. Your analysis has a few very good points and it often goes way past it's mark. Your analysis is clearly not unbiased, but I'm not holding that against you. If I were innocent and in your position, I would not be able to analyse the person who wants to double-lynch me objectively either.

I still want to double-lynch you , but I rather doubt it's going to happen.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I would just like to say...

I would very much appreciate if you didn't lynch me.

That is all.

[the phantom]

All right.

According to what we have from TGWBS, if we lynch Fea and she is innocent, we assume that neither Fea nor Agan was dreamt guilty, but rather that Boro and Kath or Boro and I were dreamt innocent.

If Fea is guilty, we assume that she was a dream. The next question- does the Fea-Agan pairing on one single line dictate that we should certainly lynch Agan next, or should we assume that it was a way to throw the baddies off the scent, and that the other dream was actually innocent (me, or perhaps Boro)?

[the phantom]

Boro- hope you enjoyed the football over the weekend. And I hope you enjoy this news report.

[Gollum the Great]

Why is it that most everyone thinks Fea is a critic?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Due to the fact that TGWBS neurotically always thinks I'm guilty of something, and consequently left behind a lot of suggestions that the village lynch me even though he didn't actually dream of me.

[the phantom]

Here are the votes from the first two days. Someone with time might want to go through the thread to make sure this is right. I trusted the summaries of others to get these and I had to edit a couple of errors. We'll see if it's correct now.

DAY 1 VOTES
CailEom ++Nog
Mac ++Menel
Nog ++sally
Gwath ++Nog (2)
Shasta ++tgwbs
tgwbs ++Fea
Lari ++Ilya
Menel ++Mac
Fea ++Menel (2)
Boro ++Mac (2)
Brinn ++Nog (3)
Kath ++Ilya (2)
Sally ++Nog (4)
Ilya ++Strongbow
Phantom ++Menel (3)
Boro --Mac (1)
Boro ++Menel (4)
Aganzir ++Nog (5)
TGWBS --Fea (0)
TGWBS ++Menel (5)

LATE
Sally --Nog (4)
Sally ++Menel (6)

NO VOTE
Strongbow
Gollum

**********

DAY 2 VOTES
Brinn ++Gollum
Sally ++Gollum (2)
TGWBS ++Fea
Kath ++Ilya
Mac ++Ilya (2)
Agan ++Ilya (3)
Fea ++Ilya (4)
Boro ++Ilya (5)
Lari ++Shasta

LATE
Gwath ++Sally
Ilya ++Gollum (3)
Ilya --Gollum (2)
Ilya ++Mac

NO VOTE
Shasta
Bowie
Gollum
CailEom

[Gollum the Great]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Due to the fact that TGWBS neurotically always thinks I'm guilty of something, and consequently left behind a lot of suggestions that the village lynch me even though he didn't actually dream of me.

That sounds like a slender reed on which to unload suspicion, but I really can't say I got anything better to suggest. However, if we are going to kill Fea for that reason alone, is not Aganzir just as guilty?

Most Innocent
Boro
Kath
-----------------
Brinniel
Gollum
Mac
***************
Lariren-Strongbow-Gwath-Cailineomer
***************
Ilya
Shastanis
Sally
-----------------
Fea-Aganzir
Most Guilty

That was TGWBW's last list.

[Boromir88]

Boro- hope you enjoyed the football over the weekend. And I hope you enjoy this news report.~tp

Haha, love it. It was a pretty good week. Arizona is a good story, but too bad that means they will get blown out of the water either in the championship or super bowl.

However, if we are going to kill Fea for that reason alone, is not Aganzir just as guilty?~Gollum

Oh it's much worse than that for Fea. tgwbs voted for her twice, referred to her as a critic I don't know how many times, and when he wasn't calling her a critic he said she was tricksy and up to no good. Either tgwbs is a vindictive seer that just wants to make Fea's singing career go down the toilet, or he dreamt her as the cobbler, or a critic.

Due to the fact that TGWBS neurotically always thinks I'm guilty of something, and consequently left behind a lot of suggestions that the village lynch me even though he didn't actually dream of me.~Fea

If tgwbs turned out any other role besides the seer, I could agree with that. But you gonna be toast.

Boro: Has officially become suspicious to me because of all of his talk with Fea and secret code and warnings and such. It just doesn’t feel right or what someone innocent would do.~Lari

Partly accurate, and that is I'm having fun with Fea. So, I chatter with her, and probably will continue to do so, and I'll miss her presense here. What was it that I told Menel, ahh don't let emotions get in the way of common sense judgement...same difference here - the chatter won't get in the way of business.

I do hope after this day is over, you take the night, to not only consider who you choose for a kill (it would be a wasted choice on me, just giving you a heads up ), but look over this Fea-Boro talk and come to a different conclusion. Because before you consider using this little interaction between Fea and myself, be prepared to have it thrown back at you, and I guarantee you will be lynched before me. Not saying don't try it, just saying before you do, make sure you want to and definitely...Be Prepared.

Also, I consider Boro to be a Mac-vote waiting to happen. ~Mac

Well now that you bring it up, why delay the inevitable? We can always get Fea tomorrow right? If you want to make an exit, I'll assist in whatever way I can.

[Gwathagor]

Hey sorry I haven't been around yet toDay. I was flying and unpacking and similar things to begin with and then there was the whole...thing. But I'm here now and I'll try to catch up.