Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[the guy who be short]

Fin's death is, I suspect, a plot to get me lynched. Not only did she vote for me, I voiced great suspicion of her yesterday. She was to be my main suspect today. Fortuitously, by removing her, the wolves have allowed me to focus my attention elsewhere.

It may sound pompous and self-important, but character such as morm and I have a knack for getting ourselves lynched. Yesterday we came disastrously close to lynching morm, tomorrow or, less likely, today, that attention shifts to me.

But why would the wolves set me up rather than killing Caran? Opinions have been voiced, but I prefer to investigate myself, as usual.

However, I would like outside support in figuring out what on Earth happened yesterday. Why did we lynch Fea? What exactly did it achieve?

At various points, I thought she was a wolf, the Seer, the Changling and, briefly, the real Hunter.

Where's the revelation? How are we saved?

Off to revise. Back later.

[the guy who be short]

P.S. The most important point I have raised is the lack of solid opposition to my shortlist idea. I think it's brilliant. Tell me how it can be manipulated, or I'll just presume it can't and ask Caran for another one.

[Cailín]

I am here but greatly distressed (real life...). This will be my only post toDay. I'm sorry. I accidentally found an internet cafe in the middle of nowhere.

If you trust me, trust me.

You are looking in the wrong direction. Especially Mormegil.

Do with this info as you will.

++LMP

Though I am not sure about this one.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

That doesn't make sense. How would Fea joining the wolves for one Night cause the village to lose?

Fea picks Seer
Fea knows Seer identity
Fea joins wolves
Fea kills Seer
Dead Seer doesn't get to reveal dreams
Village in trouble

Suspect me if you will, but again, I can't help it if my thoughts are along the same lines as other in the village. Who's to say there isn't good reason for common suspicion? Might be something to it...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Fin's death is, I suspect, a plot to get me lynched. Not only did she vote for me, I voiced great suspicion of her yesterday. She was to be my main suspect today. Fortuitously, by removing her, the wolves have allowed me to focus my attention elsewhere.

I disagree. At this phase of the game, there's still all three wolves left and the village seems to be quite clueless about their identities. Why would they try to frame someone? They are, in my opinion, too worried about the seer at the moment and probably trying to get rid of her.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

Today Morm has suspected lmp, tgwbs and earlier also Durelin. Whether his being looking at the wrong direction implies also Durelin, I don't know, but clearly tgwbs is implied. The vote for lmp kind of takes him out from the "wrong direction"-list.

So I will not be voting tgwbs - and wouldn't be going for Durelin either. That's interesting but also understandable as they both have received a lot of suspicion.

But that kind of opens the situation anew. And I hope we will not have yet another panicky vote scenario (Spm, Fea) this evening. They seem to end in bad choices.

tgwbs: I think Fea was trying to help us gracefully as she wanted to get out of the game for RL reasons.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

.

And Caran is right, the Hunter cannot protect the same person two Nights running.

Generally deeply confused but surely the Hunter cannot protect anyone? Still reading through and astounded that Fea was not the Changeling ..

[the guy who be short]

Mith - I think Kath was confused. I don't remember there ever being rules about who the Hunter chooses. She seems to have mixed up Ranger and Hunter.

Celuien - you actually make sense. I didn't think of that. In that case

--CELUIEN

++LHUNA again.

For my original reason and for her wolf-list which seems ill thought-out to me. Also:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

That whole issue about giving Caran complete trust with regards to voting reeks of lycanthropy in that he was practically leaving everything in her hands. Also, he seemed the one most concerned that Caran might die that Night, and now we find that she hasn't. A hands-cleaning bluff if I ever saw one.

Your first point, as I've said before, doesn't make sense to me. It has yet to be explained.
Your second also doesn't make sense to me. Explain how it works. At the moment it looks like you killed her specifically to say that, but didn't think through the logic behind it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I disagree. At this phase of the game, there's still all three wolves left and the village seems to be quite clueless about their identities. Why would they try to frame someone? They are, in my opinion, too worried about the seer at the moment and probably trying to get rid of her.

False. Up until now, we have been chasing loudmouths. Now, we have come to a point where, if the wolves do not keep pressure on the village, we will start looking at a new batch of people - something I have already started doing.

Also, wolves would not try to lynch the Seer. They take him/her in the night. They lynch whomever is opportune.

[mormegil]

Could I actually drop my suspicions of TGWBS? Something tells me he's innocent, yet he feels so guilty. I fully and truthfully recognize that there are some (TGWBS, Kath, Lommy) who always seem guilty to me whether they are or not. However, with that said I still keep my vote for LMP and call it a good one. If TGWBS is innocent I believe Lhuna does bear a bit more watching as she has felt different this game than any prior I've had with her.

TGWBS I cannot currently give any examples of how to manipulate a list because

1. We do not have the list.
2. I am not a wolf ergo my thought process is different
3. I wouldn't want to give any hints to the wolves, just in case they were too obtuse to think of ways themselves.

I generally found it easy to manipulate the list and use it to the wolfish advantage when we had it.

[the guy who be short]

morm - Could you give examples? As we're not actually using a list, you do not need to fear the wolves using your ideas. What did you do last game? I'm sorry to go on and on about it, but I really can't see how wolves could possibly thwart it.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

tgwbs: I think Fea was trying to help us gracefully as she wanted to get out of the game for RL reasons.

But how was this to our advantage? How did it help "save" us? Surely it would have been more advantageous to ask to be removed so we could actually lynch a potential wolf? I still don't understand what happened yesterday, and am looking at you space-thingy fans (Morm, Celuien) to explain it. Or just admit you're as lost as I am.

Anywho... Off to lunch, then revision, then analysing Lhuna, Nogrod and Tom, if time.

[mormegil]

Well regarding Fea, we either kill an unknown Durelin and loose innocent Fea at night, potentially being out 2 innocents, or simply loose 1 innocent. True we loose an innocent at night again but at least we didn't loose 2 during the day. Now I'm not sure about Durelin, but Fea was fairly certain that somehow she caught her.

The list: it depends upon the scenario last game we could sacrifice wolves rather easily and not be too much out for it. However I would think that a maximum of one sacrifice this game would be all we are likely to see. But generally they see the narrowed list and make a case against the most suspicious looking innocent on it. That way their vote doesn't look that odd. Oh and the votes aren't spread evenly in my experience. They generally fall to 2 of the 4 candidates. Also being that Caran has no special knowledge her list isn't really that helpful as it may contain zero wolves, thus giving the wolves at least one more day where little to no analysis was done because of our fancy little list.

[Nogrod]

Of lists...

I still think that letting Caran make the list all by herself would not have been the wisest thing to do. It would have been like putting all our eggs into the same basket. And even Caran admits this. She has also openly confessed being easily swayed by other peoples arguments (and Morm already pointed out the other side of the problem).

But if we can assume now, that we know of, or possibly should at least trust for three innocents (Caran, tgwbs, Durelin), it might be wise to see their collective lists. Everyone of the three picking f.ex. four suspicious people and then we could pick the common choices as our list of sorts. That would greatly enhance the "objectiviness" of the list.

Of Fea-lynch...

What happened? From my point of view I was first as worried as you seem still to be and tried to call for a stop to that seeming madness. Then I had some time to reconsider and started thinking that it was the Changeling-Fea that had picked the Seer (or the Ranger) last night and was afraid to pick a wolf soon and so being forced to kill the Gifted. If we add to this that she seemed to have RL-problems and was willing to get off the game, lynching would be the right way to go - preventing any actively-playing innocent (or even someone she had picked already and knew to be innocent) to be lynched. It surely was, and probably is still more probable that we lynch innocents, not the wolves. So wise in that sense.


But as I said, I would like to see lists by Caran, tgwbs and Durelin. I might be ready to vote on the basis of those toDay.

[Kath]

Ooh yes I did mix that up. To clarify:

The Hunter cannot hunt the same person two Night's running.

The Ranger cannot protect the same person to Night's running.

[the guy who be short]

But as I said, I would like to see lists by Caran, tgwbs and Durelin. I might be ready to vote on the basis of those toDay.

Cailin's statement was a little cryptic. But I'll be happy to do that after I go over a few things. I think I've overpromised myself - An analysis of yesternight, of Lhuna, of Tom and of Nogrod are probably beyond me. But I'll get started now.

Morm - I could argue forever. Let's not go there.

Fea's lynching - I get it. I just don't think it was that helpful... Better lynch a potential wolf than a definite innocent. Then again, that girl is completely insane (see siggy).

[the guy who be short]

She actually made good points on Day 1 about the Changeling being a "Second Seer." She neglects that the Changeling cannot openly state who they are and says they should open up their secrets with the Seer when the time is right.

While posts 142 and 143 do seem to be full of deep thought, Lhuna does have a startling habit of picking out innocent - morm, LMP, Durelin and Fea come under suspicion, while Cailin, SpM and Caran are mentioned.

Days one and two she doesn't give reasoning for her votes - Me and Durelin respectively.

Day 3 sees a long post making lots and lots and lots of sense. Lots of things I agree with - but she does suspect Fin. Anyway, seems logical to me.

I'm being kicked off now, but I'll finish later. Less suspicious of Lhuna now.

[Caranlondien]

Right... I put TGWBS as one of my top suspects last night (my time) to see his reaction, and I think he's innocent. lmp, I'm still suspicious of.

Concerning the Fea-lynching, it's too bad we lost an innocent, but I don't think it's worth dwelling on it. I'm certainly not suspicious of anyone for voting for her; she asked us to. I thought she was the Changeling as well, but it turns out (I think) that she was just trying to buy us more time to think about the other suspects, as otherwise she either would have had to leave the game for RL reasons or we would have ended up lynching her anyway because she'd turned so quiet.

lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)
tgwbs => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
tgwbs ≠> Lhuna => Celuien (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
Cailín => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
tgwbs ≠> Celuien => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I am here but greatly distressed (real life...). This will be my only post toDay. I'm sorry. I accidentally found an internet cafe in the middle of nowhere.

If you trust me, trust me.

You are looking in the wrong direction. Especially Mormegil.

Do with this info as you will.

++LMP

Though I am not sure about this one.

So does this make Mormegil a known innocent? Does this mean Cailin is the seer? Or the changeling? I need more information. Cailin, you're looking in the wrong direction yourself. Obviously, if you're the seer, you haven't dreamed about me. If you're the changeling, I'm not sure what to think, except that you must have Changed with Morm and found nothing. So you must know who ISN'T guilty, but not who IS.

[Celuien]

Okay, okay, TGWBS. I'm flipping again. You seem much more innocent.

*Dramatic music plays. Voice over - Will Celuien ever make up her mind? Stay tuned.*

I'm sticking with my Durelin vote for now. The 'wrong direction' taken by Morm would seem to be most applicable to TGWBS...

*Runs back to farm, hoping to be back today...*

[tom bombariffic]

Hi all,

Just the one post and vote for me today I'd imagine - it's been a titanic monday for us tree surgeons. May be able to get back for one more post in an hour or so, but lots to do in between, so apologies for my knock-and-run appearance today.

Fea. I don't know what happened...when reading through I, like everyone else, assumed her to be the changeling. She clearly had a plan in mind, but I honestly think it was simply to rid the village of its most useless player. She was extremely earnest, but I think she felt that she had to be to combat the village's opposition to her suicide. I can only assume that she thought the other lynching candidates were innocent, and saw herself as a sacrificial lamb. Morm's point about her having to drop out anyway and thus saving a life is also a possibility. As I said...just don't know.

So why is she still here? I see three possibilities (in no particular order):
1) That fin's suspicions were so threatening, she HAD to be killed immediately.
2) That they worried that the ranger would protect her/she would hunt them
3) That they want to leave her until she starts to gather suspicion for still being alive.

----

General consent seems to be that the second is the most likely option. Her vote (and thus her main suspicion) yesterday was for TGWBS, who seems to have gained the village's trust today. I remain uncertain; I suspect him less than yesterday, because his posts seem genuine and he has more concrete arguments behind his points today than perviously, for example that we should explore the darker corners of the village (even if that includes me!). I still do not fully trust him, mostly because I disagree with his actual ideas, for example the one I just cited. I think that to simply trust vocal villagers because recently dead vocal villagers were innocent is foolhardy, and could lead to us trusting a strong wolf, who will lead us astray - we all know from neighbouring villages how much damage a strong wolf that everyone trusts can do. This is NOT to say that quiet villagers should not be investigated as well; I imagine that the wolves will play with as varied styles as possible, and probably consist of at least one loud and at least one quiet villager. But to ignore the vocal villagers is foolish, in my opinion. In conclusion: I trust TGWBS's earnestness and something about his language makes me think he believes what he is saying, but I'm still wary of him because I don't agree with what he says, and fear that if my judging of his earnestness is wrong, he could do a lot of damage.

---

I fear Durelin. I smell a rat. Having noticed how strongly she defended herself yesterday, my attention was more focused on her today, and so perhaps I am looking for suspicious signs, but I do not trust her suggestions to be genuine. In post 443, she suggests that we should uncover the changeling. Her reasoning is poor and she admits at the end that it may just be a way for the wolves to cause more confusion by being dishonest, but then why did she post the message, and not simply remove the suggestion? I suspect that perhaps she wanted someone else to take up her argument and eventually to reveal the changeling, who of course she (if she is a wolf) could then kill.

She has also toned down her defensiveness from yesterday, but seems to still protest her innocence too readily, using smilies to soften the blow. I simply don't trust someone who feels the need to question everything that goes against them: suspicion is part and parcel of the game, and unless it is a serious and threatening accusation, most people would choose to leave it.

----

I have to go; I've just looked over morm, lommy and celuien's posts from today, but I have no time for lengthly analysis I'm afraid: I'll give it in brief:

MORM seems the same to me as yesterday. He has become no more suspicious, whilst in my mind Durelin has skyrocketed for the reasons above and her hasty vote yesterday, mentioned numerous times by others on the thread.

CELUIEN I have been unsure for a while - I never know what to think of her, whether she is helping expose suspects or getting others' backs up to cause trouble. today she seems trustworthy and intelligent, and for the moment I feel comfortable with her.

LOMMY was a suspect from yesterday who did not grab my attention today, and when I went back and looked over her posts, I saw nothing blatantly wolvish - she remains behind Durelin and Morm in my suspicions.

My vote:

++ Durelin

have to run.

bombariffic

[Caranlondien]

I'm afraid once again I'll have to leave the village somewhat early. I'm thinking over my vote....

Sorry, I just can't help updating the voting list 20 times a day:

lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)
tgwbs => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
tgwbs ≠> Lhuna => Celuien (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
Cailín => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
tgwbs ≠> Celuien => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
Tom => Durelin (Durelin 3, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)

[Mithalwen]

Hi I am here again.

Going to have a look at LMP... that SpM fiasco is still bugging me. Also want to try and work out what Fea was playing at. Best guess wiothout reading is that she thought Durelin, who seemed doomed, was innocent. But as an innocent herself she cannot have been certain. So Durelin, again must be examined..although her individual reaction to the Fea situation my count for her.

I als would be surprised, alas, if our Seer and Changeling could tell us much helpful. While there are too many fine players in this game to speculate with certainty who they have picked. I be very surprised if at least a few of our illustrious dead did not figure amongst their choices. Off to read thoroughly..

[Caranlondien]

++littlemanpoet

Sorry, lmp, I can't help suspecting you.

lmp => Durelin (Durelin 1)
Celuien => Durelin (Durelin 2)
mormegil => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 1)
Lhuna => tgwbs (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1)
tgwbs => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
tgwbs ≠> Lhuna => Celuien (Durelin 2, lmp 1, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
Cailín => lmp (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Celuien 1)
tgwbs ≠> Celuien => Lhuna (Durelin 2, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
Tom => Durelin (Durelin 3, lmp 2, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)
Caran => lmp (Durelin 3, lmp 3, tgwbs 1, Lhuna 1)

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

Ooh yes I did mix that up. To clarify:

The Hunter cannot hunt the same person two Night's running.

Gosh, good luck Caran that makes a hard role even harder. Seems very tough that since the Hunter effectively only strikes once as they die - but of course I can not object to moddesses exercising their divine right as they see fit

[Caranlondien]

good luck Caran

Thanks Mith - I've been careful, though, and I don't really think the werewolves have any idea what I've been doing.

If I'm able to, I will come back and comment a while later, but I'm not sure I will be back. Should I die toNight, best of luck, villagers! (I'm getting tired of saying goodbye... )

[Durelin]

The only reason I'm still alive is because the wolves like all the attention I'm drawing away from them. And so they simply need to nudge the village in the direction of lynching me to get rid of me. Which I suppose isn't going to be hard for them, is it?

As TGWBS has pointed out, everyone's been going after the loudmouths. The lynchings have all been of innocents so far. Perhaps it's about time everyone reconsidered the direction their suspicions are headed in.

Innocent:
Caran

Probably Innocent:
Cailin
lmp
morm

Possibly Innocent:
TGWBS
Lommy
Nogrod

Possibly Guilty:
Mith
Lhuna

Probably Guilty:
Celuien
Tom

Now, the votes have LMP and myself tied. But I seriously doubt he is a wolf. His post that seemed to somehow ignite a SPM bandwagon really doesn't work. It could have been well-timed, but why would he have risked drawing the attention away from Caran? And the kind of bandwagon that followed had a lot to do with only Caran's revealing of her role.

Celuien and Tom would be an interesting pair of wolves. They have, in a way, worked together, without actually working together at all. (Today they're both going after me, maybe with reason, but Tom conveniently mentions that he is uncertain about Celuien. That seems to be about the first time he's mentioned Celuien at all in a while, if he ever did.) Yesterday, before the craziness with Fea occured, Tom had voiced suspicions about all three of the top candidates for lynching yesterday: morm, myself, and TGWBS (though of course he was not quite up there with morm and myself). Celuien voices suspicions about all three as well. And who do they end up voting for? Tom for morm, Celuien for me. morm and myself end up tied. Then, Fea jumps in.

Fea's whole routine was because of RL problems and to try and get some reactions. But most importantly, I believe, was a whole other reason.

Originally Posted by Fea

Celuien: when tomorrow comes, do me a favor if my plan suddenly becomes clear.

I'm trying to keep deaths from being wasted. Wink... Wink... Deaths, plural.

Analyze the bejeezus out of everybody that took part in this little exchange. And rip apart anybody that needs it. 'K?

Both Morm and I were tied. That's two deaths. And it's quite possible that Fea thought either one of us or both of us was/were gifted. She said time and again that if everyone thought they knew that someone was a wolf, that they should vote for them, but she wanted to avoid needless deaths. Plus she wanted out. Fea was an ordinary villager, and so, technically, did not necessarily have any clue herself, but she did find the way yesterday's voting was going to be stupid.

And then she says 'analyze the bejeezus out of everybody that took part in this little exchange.' Her actions were a good way to test people's reactions. And, obviously, anyone who quite willingly took part in voting for Fea could very well be a wolf. What would there be for a wolf to lose in such a situation? A strange cry of suicide - it could mean anything. A villager might want to vote for Fea because of the chance that she would be the Changling. But so would a wolf. And a wolf wouldn't have to worry about the chance that Fea would turn out to be just another 'ordo.' That's another down, with no mark against them.

And who was at the head of the Fea lynching? Celuien.

So my top suspects remain as stated on the list: Celuien and Tom.

Question, though: Would the wolves know that the Changling picked one of them?

[the guy who be short]

You raise some very interesting points Durelin. One of the things that often betrays a wolf is an unwillingness to comment on an ally.

Question, though: Would the wolves know that the Changling picked one of them?

Presumably, as they would lose their powers for a night.

The clincher for me is that he has voted durelin after Cailin clearly said "Oy! Youse guys! Stop voting Durelin." Perhaps he's handily ignored it.

--LHUNA

++TOM BOMBARIFFIC

Who knew retractables could be so fun? Ha. I'm sticking to that vote because I don't think I can return today. Farewell.

Edit: Sorry about not being able to finish my Lhunanalysis.

[littlemanpoet]

Confession: I was from the get-go looking for something from Saucy to seize on so I could ride him for all he was worth. Luck would have it that he got lynched first try. Why would I do such a thing? Two possibilities: either I'm a werewolf and liked the idea of riding him, or I was going for sweet revenge for past games. I must confess the latter. And here I am doing an Anguirel (see a former game in which LMP was more righteous than he has been in this one).

Okay then, confession done.

If I am that much of a distraction to the rest of you ordos such that you need to lynch me in order to have a clearer look at who the werewolves really are, so be it.

I AM NOT DOING WHAT FEANOR DID.

I don't want to be lynched, but if you guys insist, I will go along with you. Votes being retractable, I think enough of you might do the right thing and see what I'm up to, and go instead for an actual werewolf.

-- Durelin

++ littlemanpoet

Just to be absolutely clear: I'll die if you want me to, but you will not have lynched a werewolf. Best of luck to you all. I may be around in the next 2:40 to see how things go...

[the guy who be short]

Sigh.

What is it with this village and innocent suicidal maniacs?

[Mithalwen]

Are you all out to rob me of what remains of my sanity? Now I have doubts about both my main suspects.

LMP - that was such a selfish thing to do if you are telling the truth that if it weren't for the fact things are so desperate I'd ..... well I really feel used and it coulkd so easily have got me killed. If you are a villager this is a team game.


LMP confesses and the only explanation I have for Fea is a a beilef Durelin was innocent. Aaaarrrrghhhhhhh

Now I am confused and not a little narked...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But if we can assume now, that we know of, or possibly should at least trust for three innocents (Caran, tgwbs, Durelin)

Have I missed something? How come tgwbs and Durelin are known innocents?

LMP, if you're innocent ordo please don't do that. All the three wolves are still alive and we're soon running out of time to catch them. You're playing to the wolves' paws.

I'm anti-"lynch LMP". Wolves are the biggest threat to the village.

[Durelin]

*smacks herself*

Well, I suppose that's a way to prove your innocence. Or a good gamble for a wolf.

You've just gone and made this all more difficult, lmp. I would think you might be covering for Tom, except that it's too early to feel that Tom is actually in danger of being lynched.

I'd say this almost garuantees your innocence. But only almost. You're certainly still at risk for being lynched, and many might assume that this gamble is too much for a wolf, and so would assume your innocence. The odds might be for letting you live, so perhaps this would be a wise move for a wolf.

But for now, I still think you're innocent.

EDIT: Cross-posted with last three people...

[Mithalwen]

We are down to 12 ..if anyone else wants to play silly b******* can they get it out of their systems pronto?

[Durelin]

I just realized something...

I think Cailin might be the Changling.

Of course, I suppose pursuing this idea will just mix things up even more... *sighs*

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Sigh.
What is it with this village and innocent suicidal maniacs?

Indeed! This is just nonsense - or risky wolf-tactics. The two first Days this villages runs rampant after some of its greatest assets (ok. I admit that I too felt Boro behaving somewhat oddly, but surely not so much as to lynch him) and then we have this suicidal madness!

What is it now?

Mith: don't break your nerves just yet, we have at least two-three days left to start performing better.

Lommy: read the thread...

Durelin: interesting analysis on Celuien and tom. That should probably be looked more carefully.

RL: We'll go playing with Lommy's little sister now as she mopes on the livingroom about our WW-craze (she really hates this game...). But we both will be back before the Day is at an end. On the next Day we will be living here together with Lommy. You might guess that we will be then really giving at last some time and real effort with this game - being around.

[Celuien]

Come on, Elempi. Don't do that. I'll have to revive my psychiatry practice.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

The clincher for me is that he has voted durelin after Cailin clearly said "Oy! Youse guys! Stop voting Durelin." Perhaps he's handily ignored it.

She did? All I saw was this notice:

You are looking in the wrong direction. Especially Mormegil.

My impression (please correct me if I'm wrong) was that Morm has suspected you more than anyone else. When I had an anaylsis that suggested your innocence yesterday, he quickly disagreed with me. He has a vote for Elempi today, but Cailin also voted for him, so I don't think her warning applied to him.

[Mithalwen]

Seeing as I haven't got my head round the shenanigans regarding Durelin and LMP, and haven't much time left, I am seriously considering Tom. I find analysis of others posts is often used as a cover by a flying under the radar wolf and see from my notes that I thought one of Fin or Tom might well be a wolf. Since Fin is dead....

[Mithalwen]

OK .... this is it.... I am a bit peeved about LMP stunt but ther is always tomorrow if he is messing us.

Cailin rings true to me, the hope she is th changeling and knows and that Fea's hunch was right inclines me to give Durelin the benefit of the doubt . Also, Durelin's standing out agains the Fea vote stands in her favour, as does in a weird way her suspicion of me. I know I am innocent but I apprecaite that another innocent couldn't be certain. CeErtainty is the mark of a gifted or a wolf. Which means I will continue to observe LMP.

But I will vote for a person who has rung bells in a vague way since day one and has gone very quiet. I might be wrong .... but for once in this game I am going to stick with my instinct .

++Tom Bombariffic

[Durelin]

I guess I'd best vote now, as well. I do wish I could have heard from more people before doing this, though.

++Tom Bombariffic

My final vote unless someone speaks up.

lmp may yet be lynched. I don't like this...

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I just realized something...

I think Cailin might be the Changling.

Of course, I suppose pursuing this idea will just mix things up even more... *sighs*

Well hello. Yes, since Cailin can't come right out and say it, she can do the next best thing and state what she is absolutely certain of, and hope we get it.

So what we can tell so far from that mysterious post is this:

Mormegil is innocent
Durelin is probably innocent, since she didn't name her.

Cailin suspects me but doesn't know for sure.

I think I know who the seer is, and will base the rest of my toDay analysis on these twin theories.

Don't lynch me unless you think I'm a werewolf. Lynch me if you think I'm a werewolf, but when I'm gone you better hope things have become crystal clear for the rest of you ordos.

[littlemanpoet]

sorry for the potential double post...

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

LMP - that was such a selfish thing to do if you are telling the truth that if it weren't for the fact things are so desperate I'd ..... well I really feel used and it coulkd so easily have got me killed. If you are a villager this is a team game.

I didn't trust him. Look at it this way: I relieved the seer of having to waste a dream on somebody who HAD to be dealt with one way or another in that he is always so dominant. This was one way, and YOU DID choose to follow some good reasoning, Mithalwen, so you bear as much blame as I in Saucy's lynching.