Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I also immediately wish to add that there is absolutely no point in analysing doomed Lhuna's posts yesterDay. They are too ambiguous and Lhuna will have made sure they tell us naught.

I agree. I haven't trusted a word she's said since the beginning of Day 2.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Gurthang seems very innocent to me after yesterDay's events, as do some others like tar-ancalime who made this double lynch possible. I wish to trust littlemanpoet, who has been a great asset to the village with his analyses, but I cannot - he is too smart. I still trust TGWBS because I very much doubt he'd draw so much attention to himself with both his female wolf buddies in danger. Seems like an ord to me. But you may answer to me anyway, if you wish.

Thank you for your confidence; and I agree with most of this, with one major exception: Guy. I refer you to tar's post regarding "the obvious". The obvious answer has so far been the right one. I see no reason to detour from looking at the obvious, especially as we have a reasonably healthy numbers advantage now against the werewolves: 13 to 2. That's good. Guy was all over the Lovers issue, which only a werewolf would feel the need to be. We've taken care of the Lovers issue for him (and us) now, and I'm not surprised that he seems more calm. I would be too if I were a werewolf.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Glirdan is someone whom I shall be looking closely at toDay, as is Formendacil. And Lalaith's first post toDay worries me as well.

Glirdan's & Lalaith's voting records are not as good as Formy's. Lalaith has said some really questionable things regarding the whole Kath/Farael/Eomer thing, and her voting record is worthy of question. We need to see more of the substantive and helpful kinds of posts from Lalaith in order to allay suspicion of her, should she deserve our confidence.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

So, at the risk of stating the obvious,

We really ought to take a close look at Glirdan today. Eomer suspected him continuously, and again, the way this game has been going, we can't afford to overlook these obvious links.

Good stuff, tar. I'd like us to begin thinking toward a double lynch of Glirdan on the strength of Eomer's suspicion of him as well as his less than stellar voting record, and Guy because he was so obviously desperate to find the Lovers yesterDay. I hope to see some substantive defenses put forth by these nominees, and good analysis of them as well.

[Cailín]

Guy. I refer you to tar's post regarding "the obvious". The obvious answer has so far been the right one. I see no reason to detour from looking at the obvious, especially as we have a reasonably healthy numbers advantage now against the werewolves: 13 to 2. That's good. Guy was all over the Lovers issue, which only a werewolf would feel the need to be. We've taken care of the Lovers issue for him (and us) now, and I'm not surprised that he seems more calm. I would be too if I were a werewolf.

Elempi, I get what you are saying and I would agree... but in the past the guy who be wolvish has been more than able to completely delude me. I just cannot rhyme this obvious wolf with the TGWBS I know. This might be my mistake, however.

For good order, we could (double)lynch him toDay. Innocent TGWBS would thoroughly deserve it for his stubbornness ( ) and we can afford to make a mistake.

Your analysis of Glirdy, tar-ancalime, is helpful, though it is perhaps more interesting to see what the known wolves and Farael have said with regards to him. Either way, he looks pretty bad from my point of view.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Good stuff, tar. I'd like us to begin thinking toward a double lynch of Glirdan on the strength of Eomer's suspicion of him as well as his less than stellar voting record, and Guy because he was so obviously desperate to find the Lovers yesterDay. I hope to see some substantive defenses put forth by these nominees, and good analysis of them as well.

Cross-posted. We seem to be thinking along the same lines.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

After a wolf knows it is going to die, its only aim is to sow confusion in the village. I would consider none of Lhuna's final information seriously; though some may be true, and lots will be false, we cannot know which is which. Better by far to analyse her - and Kath's - and yea, even Farael's - earlier posts.

While I take nothing that you say at face value, I think you're right about Farael for certain. He knew who all the werewolves are, and may have let something slip in his desperate aggression against Kath.

[Lalaith]

Aha! I found the accusation of tgwbs as lone male wolf - it was actually made by Lhuna, not Farael.

for tgwbs' plan...that's very silly. It's making me think that you are the sole male wolf, and the rest are females, so it would be okay for you to sacrifice yourself because you know that there will still be two female wolves left in the end - the other one being killed along with her lover.

What to make of this, I wonder? It sounds like she's making an accusation, almost...
But I agree that Farael's posts should be combed through carefully. I get the feeling he was past caring by the end, blurting out all sorts of things.

I'm trying to be as fair as I can to all suspects, and I'm still stuck on the first day voting problem.
When Lhuna voted, failing to break a tie, between Garin and Guy, we still had Samwise, Gurthang and spawn left to vote. It was in fact Samwise who broke the tie. Gurthang jumped in and voted without looking, and Spawn, with no more double-lynch to worry about, voted for Eonwe.
The next day, Lhuna actually says she's going to be looking hard at anyone who voted for tgwbs. Reckless behaviour indeed for a pair of wolves.

If only Guy hadn't been almost as febrile as Farael yesterday, I'd be writing him off as a probable innocent.

PS LMP, I'm sorry you misinterpreted me. I just said "three intelligent men", because you are, how is that male-bashing???

[Lalaith]

Continuing the spirit of fairness...

Could this be another attempt to seem helpful without really contributing anything? (Someone else mentioned this in reference to his analyses of Valier and Caranlondien, each of whom had posted about three times at the time of his investigations.)

Tar-a - Spawn had in fact asked someone to analyse the quiet ones and Glirdan offered to. I'm not disputing the rest of what you say...

[the guy who be short]

LMP - I have no idea why you've set yourself so hopelessly against me. The easy thing to do would be to suspect you, but to be honest, I consider you innocent. I know how you can be...

As for the Lovers, you seem to have it set in your mind that finding them would be a priority for the wolves. Not so. The Lovers aim is to survive together. This means that as long as the Villagers outnumbered the Wolves, the Lovers would be alligned with the Wolves against the Village.

In addition, it would be easier to find the lovers because there had to be one in the 8 men. What people did not grasp yesterday was that the plan was not a statistical substitute for analysis, but a supplement. I was confident, by analysis, of Gurthang and Eomer's innocence, so that the lovers would most likely be caught in two days.

As to why I wished to find the Lovers - as well as them being alligned against the village, I saw other strengths in the idea. Catching them would be easier than catching wolves because there had to be one amongst the men. And once we had the lovers, we would have a wolf, from which we could use analysis to find the others.

The fatal flaw of the plan that I did not notice, and I later acknowledged, was that it would enable the wolves to pick which women to pit their she-wolves against.

[the guy who be short]

Before I get any serious Wolf or Lover analysing done, I wish to put forward my thoughts on what's going on.

I still - obstinately, you may say - do not believe spawn dreamt of Lhuna. This may be because I didn't think so before, and I have not checked since. I'll need to look over this, but I recall there being only very tenuous arguments for this.

Farael attacked Kath to save Lhuna. Yes, I'm going over the obvious, but hear me out. Not only did he know Kath was a wolf, he did this to make himself look like the Seer so that the village would trust him. However, as his argument was so extremely poor, I thought him most likely to be a wolf. At least I was right in my belief that he was an enemy of the village.

There was suspicion on me before yesterday. It is interesting to note that Eomer - my most trusted ally yesterday, and the only one to speak for double lynchings, which, whatever you all may think, is still a good strategy statistically - died in the Night. Perhaps this is my ego flexing itself, but I think part of the reason may have been to destroy my support. I am confident that I am being set up.

Being suicidal, I don't much mind this. If I am being set up, those arguing for my death are most likely wolves. This helps me to find them.

If the village decides that I should die, I will comply and leave you, for I feel that as long as I live, I shall cause confusion. However, If it is the case, I wish to impose conditions. The accused are not usually allowed conditions, but I feel mine are so fair that to deny them would be a sign of wolvery.

If the village decides I am to be lynched, I want a double lynching. That's it. That's all my conditions. Simply because I know I am innocent, and I won't have a day go by without at least one potential wolf facing the gallows. Double lynching, whatever opponents may shriek, increase the village's chance of winning.

That is all. If you decide to lynch me, toDay or any other day, that condition will apply, unless I state otherwise.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by tgwbs

Being suicidal, I don't much mind this. If I am being set up, those arguing for my death are most likely wolves. This helps me to find them.

Why would they be? Why couldn't innocent villagers too argue for your death? I don't get the point.

Originally Posted by tgwbs

If the village decides I am to be lynched, I want a double lynching. That's it. That's all my conditions. Simply because I know I am innocent, and I won't have a day go by without at least one potential wolf facing the gallows. Double lynching, whatever opponents may shriek, increase the village's chance of winning.

You may say I'm wolvish because I want to deny this, but you are really the wolvish one. What goodbye-gift a wolf would like to have? An innocent hanged beside him, most probably.
Guy, whether it's your intention or not, and whether you're a wolf or not, you seem very wolvish.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Yes, that puzzled me too. Then I realised he meant "eliminate from my suspect list" rather than "lynch".

Thanks. Though I would like to hear the same (or something else) from Glirdan himself.

[the guy who be short]

I have chosen to analyse Kath for two reasons. The first is that, as a non-lover, her aim is actually to help the wolves. This makes it easier to find them through her words.

The second is that I am pressed for time, and she has barely posted.

Post 16

Opposes herself to double lynchings in al but rare situations.

Post 63

Doesn't make sense. Claims it is easier to find the wolf lover than the ordo lover. Slightly, maybe.

Post 75

Votes for Eomer. Alas. Also attacks Garin. All innocents so far.

Post 198

Says she is not a wolf who killed Anguirel knowing it would lead back to her.

Attacks Farael. Says her vote for Eomer came before LMP's.

Post 256

Nothing important

Post 259

First substantial post.

Attacks Eonwe and Naria for being quiet. This may point to Naria's innocence.

Says she will not make a deal of Glirdan changing his style. Points to his guilt.

Eomer - Says nothing in a lot of words. Doesn't suspect him.

Farael - Sees nothing wolvish

Lhuna - Says she is a misguided innocent, too wolvish to be a wolf.

Votes Eonwe - says she doesn't want to keep a tie between Eonwe, Lhuna, Eomer and Naria. However, there were still 10 votes left to go at this point; I think she really influenced Eonwe's lynching. Was her eagerness only to save Lhuna? Was she that worried for Lhuna? We know Eomer was innocent, so perhaps she was nervous because Naria is also a wolf? This makes me look at Naria quite harshly.

Post 333

Says she wasn't aware spawn suspected her so strongly. She didn't, of course. Farael invented this.

Again argues against double lynchings.

Says my idea of lynching all the men is dangerous. Darn right.

Says she will discuss Lhuna later.

Post 337

Analyses spawn.

Says it’s better to go after the wolves than the Lovers. Well that’s true but perhaps then the wolves may have thought she was the ordo Lover since she seems to be trying to stop people looking for them.

Probably why spawn was killed. Not due to dreams.

Says Valier, Guy, Lalaith or Cailín are possibly Seer dreams and innocent. Don't know what to think here.

Acuses Farael.

Says there is good reason to suspect Lalaith and Naria.

Post 405

Says spawn maybe dreamt of Glirdan and found him innocent.

Says spawn suspects Naria and that she may be a wolf, but finds it unlikely.

Votes Lhuna, and says if she is a wolf, which she knew she should be, we should view Lommy and Formen as innocent. Interesting.



I am cross-posting with everybody since my last post. If you'll excuse me, I now wish to examine some voting records.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Why would they be? Why couldn't innocent villagers too argue for your death? I don't get the point

If I am being framed, they need to influence the village to see it.

You may say I'm wolvish because I want to deny this, but you are really the wolvish one. What goodbye-gift a wolf would like to have? An innocent hanged beside him, most probably.

I intentionally said that the village should have the right to choose who to double-lynch with me. Do you have such little faith in your own skills of deduction that you think that anybody you lynch will end up innocent? By allowing the village to choose who to lynch alongside me, I ensure that there is no influence from me. I cannot nominate Seer candidates or enemy innocents to lynch. It comes down to the village - and they should be analytical enough to find a wolf.


Innocent:
Gurthang
tar-ancalime
littlemanpoet

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan
Thinlómien
Formendacil
Naria
Lalaith

[the guy who be short]

I stole the beginning of this from you.

Yesterday.

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Well... this tells us a lot. Whoever the wolves are, they were willing to sacrifice two of their number. I shall have to dig deepers.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Do you have such little faith in your own skills of deduction that you think that anybody you lynch will end up innocent?

Yes I do. I don't trust my own wits very much (especially know when I actually don't have any clear suspects except you), and you, as a friend of mathemathics should understand that it's probable that we will lynch an innocent alongside with you, if we're going to lynch you.

Would you like to explain your list a bit? A simple list won't help anyone. If you gave some reasons, your list would be taken more into consideration. I can't see any reason for you to do a list without explanation - unless you were a wolf preparing to die and wanting to leave something that would just confuse us.

[the guy who be short]

On retrospect, that tells us a little. Wolves knew that Kath and Lhuna were wolves. Those voting soon after me would probably have voted Farael to save Lhuna if they were wolves.

This points to Lommy's, Formen's, Lal's, Samwise's and Celuien's innocence. Which handily leaves me with two suspects.

Innocent:
Gurthang
tar-ancalime
littlemanpoet
Thinlómien
Formendacil
Lalaith
SamwiseGamgee

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan
Naria

[Cailín]

Come on, TGWBS.

The wolves would have no interest in 'setting you up' seeing as they are down to two in a still numerous village, there is still a Seer out there and you have done a great job in making yourself look suspicious. Whoever the kill would have been toNight, you had some explaining to do.

I think basically everyone is more or less arguing for your death right now, and since we are still twelve innocents (I hope I got the math right this time) you'd have a hard time finding a wolf amongst them.

As I said before, I am absolutely not certain whether you are guilty or not and indeed I'd sooner lynch Glirdan than you. However, clearing up confusion is always helpful, most villagers won't rest before you are lying beneath the ground and since I have supported double-lynchings from the start I shall gladly assent to your final request.

Also, the voting could tell us something. The wolves may have easily voted for Lhuna, suspecting her to be the Lover-wolf, but I am hesitant to accept that they would have made a double-lynching possible. Caranlondien, littlemanpoet and possibly Lalaith and Samwise would look bad if that theory is indeed plausible.

edit: cross-posted with TGWBS' message above.

[the guy who be short]

Would you like to explain your list a bit? A simple list won't help anyone. If you gave some reasons, your list would be taken more into consideration. I can't see any reason for you to do a list without explanation - unless you were a wolf preparing to die and wanting to leave something that would just confuse us.

Very well. But then I don't think I'll have time to look into day 2s voting.

Innocent:
Gurthang - He has a good track record. He sealed the double lynch. Even before this, I analysed him and came up with an innocent. Possibly my strongest innocent.
tar-ancalime - Seems to analyse Glirdan well. Makes sense.
littlemanpoet - I can't see a wolf-LMP being so courageous. All I can see is LMP, once again being completely and totally sure of himself, true to his nature. And I'd trust a wolf-LMP not to be so irrational, and be far more careful.
Thinlómien - Voting.
Formendacil - Voting
Lalaith - Voting
SamwiseGamgee - Voting

No idea:
Caranlondien
Cailín
Celuien
Valier

Potential Wolves:
Glirdan - See above. Kath's mentions, plus tar's analysis.
Naria - Kath's mentioning her, plus this:

All in all, I have to truthfully say that I am torn between these two--I just don't know right now--I'll wait a bit and see if anything else happens.

In post 420. It makes me uneasy.

[Lalaith]

I'd like to see more analysis of a wider range of people. I've got a feeling there's a wolf slipping under the radar.
Valier, Caranlondien, Celuien, Naria, Lommy, for example.....

[Formendacil]

Hmmm...

Interesting night, I can see: Eomer dead, but just an innocent, so at least it's not the Seer who's dead.

So, we have one seer, two wolves, and a gaggle of clueless (or do we have clues? We shan't know until there have been lynchings, I fear...) villagers. In other words, now that we've sorted out that whole messy Lovers business, it's back to business as normal.

The only unfortunate thing for me- and I say this in purest jest- is that with both Lhuna and Kath dead, I'm sent back to the drawing board to look for suspects.

TGWBS has popped up a fair bit in today's conversation as a double-lynch victim. Personally, I can't see him being guilty. I've played with him a few times, and he's deadly cunning, to be sure, but I just can't see this current mode of play as Wolfish. It's too... blatant.

Of course, he could be banking on us thinking that.

Oh, and before I forget...

Lalaith, in response to your query regarding the "Can Lovers speak of who the Wolves are", I think I missed it the first time round, since I was probably in "skim-read 12 hours of posting" position. The answer is that I simply hadn't thought through the Lover situation too much. I wasn't one, so why bother?

[Lalaith]

Oh and Guy, I don't think any of us who voted for Lhuna are exonerated. As I said in my first post, the wolves would probably have realised, by Farael's febrility, that Lhuna was the traitor. They would have been as glad to see the back of her as the rest of us.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'd like to see more analysis of a wider range of people. I've got a feeling there's a wolf slipping under the radar.
Valier, Caranlondien, Celuien, Naria, Lommy, for example.....

I agree with you - though I'd remove myself from the list as I know I'm innocent.
Of those you mention I'm most concerned about Celuien and Naria. Valier seems innocent to me (I don't know why) and Cara has been quite helpful to the village and seems guileless.

Guy has been acting very wolvishly, though there's one thing that speaks for his innocents. After continuously claiming to be a wolf he slipped "we innocents" in one post. Of course that could be overtly cunning wolf-tactics, but I doubt it...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Oh and Guy, I don't think any of us who voted for Lhuna are exonerated. As I said in my first post, the wolves would probably have realised, by Farael's febrility, that Lhuna was the traitor. They would have been as glad to see the back of her as the rest of us.

Or they could have guessed that
Lhuna was probably going to die and wanted to seem innocent by voting her. Also, they might have voted her in order to save Kath. But we shouldn't forget the possibility of a clever wolf voting Kath. Those who didn't vote either (didn't take sides) should also be suspected.

Conclusion: Whatever you voted, I find you suspicious based on it. Argh. My flip-floppiness and undecisiveness irritate even myself. I'll do some analysis and clear my head a bit about this whole issue.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Suspicious based on the voting record (not anything else, I haven't had time to check the conversation):
Formy - voted for Kath first. Could be a clever wolf foreseeing that people would be suspicious of the Lhuna-bandwagon and wanting to get distance from Kath in case she'd be lynched and revealed a wolf.

TGWBS - not taking sides in the Lhuna - Kath -debate.

Valier and especially Naria: probably foresaw Kath's doom and jumped on the bandwagon to seem innocent.

I don't analyse the Lhuna-voters, because I don't think that our suspiciousness is related to the phase we voted in. I think we all are suspicious according to the voting record.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, I've done an analysis of Farael, post-by-post, but it's long... and by long, I mean, really, really long. The things that struck me are:

(A) That on the second day he had already begun to attack Kath, and then mentions tar-a, less strongly. I think this clears her of guilt, as I doubt he would attack two wolves so early on, as the wolves would catch on that he was either a Lover or a Seer.

(B) The person he mentions the most on Day Three, aside from Kath, whom he's trying to get lynched, and Lhuna, his Lover, is TGWBS. I'm not sure if the same reasoning I used about tar-a applies here, as Farael was quite desperate at this point.

As for my post-by-post analysis, would you guys like me to post it, despite its length? I suppose those who have time could read it, I just don't want to clutter up the Village Square with long, possibly distracting posts that few will read.

Although I'm almost tempted to post it just to prove I've been working on something, since TGWBS has managed to get me back under suspicion (though I can't blame him, since I've been accusing him for days)

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

As for my post-by-post analysis, would you guys like me to post it, despite its length? I suppose those who have time could read it, I just don't want to clutter up the Village Square with long, possibly distracting posts that few will read.

Yes, please. It'd be a pleasure.

[Caranlondien]

As per request... Note: I'm new at this, so, like I said, it's long...

Farael

DAY ONE
On the first day, he talks mostly about his suspicions of Anguirel, and I can't find anything else useful, so I shan't do a break-down analysis by post.

DAY TWO
Post #191:
The second day, he comes in defending himself against (A) TGWBS, who was wondering why he hadn't made a suicidal vote, and (B) Eomer, who wondered why Farael had jumped to Kath's defense. His defense doesn't seem to tell us anything important.

He then moves on to accusations. He says that by killing Anguirel, the werewolves implicated him and made Kath seem innocent, because we would think it was obviously a set-up. Later in the day, several people raised concerns about Farael's statement here: Anguirel hadn't really attacked Kath that strongly, so why was it obviously a set-up? Obviously, we now know that Farael thought this because, well, Kath was a werewolf. He makes a strong attack on Kath, probably hoping that once we'd lynched her, we would trust him. His last sentence is:

Originally Posted by Farael

Anyway, I want to hear some more from Kath… and tar-a, not for her vote last night but because she often makes well argued points yet last night she didn’t.

He mentions tar-a there, and I think this probably clears her of guilt. I doubt very much that Farael would have accused two werewolves so early on; The werewolves would have immediately caught on that he was either the lover or a seer, and killed him.

DAY THREE

Post #288:
Says "I was fearing that" (I think referring to dancing spawn's death, and her turning out to be a Seer). Apologizes for not voting, says he didn't know voting would end so early.

Post #297:
This post analyzes dancing spawn. It seems like he did this mostly to try to point away from Lhuna. Tries to shift suspicion to Kath by arguing that he doesn't understand why dancing spawn would have dreamt of Lhuna in the first place.

Posts #301 & 302:
Tries to defend his attack on Kath. Also says to tar-a that he doesn't think we should make a list of known innocents yet. I can't figure out why he says this (I can't even find tar-a's post that he's responding to.

Post #304:
Responds to Cailin's correction of his facts. Proposes a plan of lynching Kath and saving Lhuna for later.

Post #306:
Cryptic response to Lalaith's claim that if she were a Seer in Nilp's game, she'd dream of Lhuna immediately. Later edits when he realizes why she said this.

Post #310:
Responds to TGWBS, who said he didn't think it likely that any wolves had been dreamt of. Says that "Wolves usually hide in the shadows... or at least, most wolves in the pack do". Continues to argue that we should lynch Kath.

Post #312:
Responds to TGWBS.

Originally Posted by Farael

And why so shrill? have we stepped on a nerve? we accuse Kath and you accuse us.... why TGWBS?

He's probably just trying to imply that TGWBS and Kath are lovers, but one could also interpret it as him saying that they're both wolves. I'm suspicious of TGWBS to begin with, so I'd like to hear others' opinions on the issue. It should be noted that by this point Farael seemed pretty careless (I mean, his attack on Kath was suspiciously strong).

Post #314:

Originally Posted by Farael

Cross posted with Cailin.... might be the lack of sleep that I'm not expressing myself properly. I'm just annoyed that I bothered to add a lovely "Post X" before each comment and he went back and must have missed some as I recall to have found more than 3 quotes from Spawn with regards to Kath.

Pretty much just getting defensive.

Post #319:
Defends himself against LMP's suggestion that he could be a desperate lover. Suggests that if we think he is the lover, we should lynch him and Kath or Lhuna and Kath. Probably hoping we won't take him seriously.

Cross-posts with tar-a, who points out some flaws in TGWBS's plan.

Originally Posted by Farael

Edit: Cross posted with Tar-a.... you forget one thing though, what if all the wolves happened to be female? I mean, if it was random, it is plausible to happen.... so if we embark ourselves in a "Let's lynch the males" campaign, we might find that all of a sudden the wolves change their collective minds and get rid of a male as well.... finding the traitor in their midst.

Could he have been telling the truth? That all four wolves are female? I think it's more likely that he didn't want to be killed himself, but we can't eliminate the possibility.

Post #352:
Calls TGWBS's plan "crazy". Probably because he knows he'll be one of the first guys lynched.

if we set out to do it, it's a win for the werewolves. No, they won't be too silent, but of course they won't be too loud... the female werewolves just have to go with the flow of the village, discussing calmly the death of every single male, even their furry counterparts. Given that they know who the males are (and given that the male werewolves will probably accept their faith and make the sacrifice) they'll accuse them, look innocent enough for the rest of the village and sail easily for the win.

This implies there are male wolves. Although he might just be saying this because I'd already made the point.

Responds to Kath, who had pointed out his seemingly apologetic vote for Anguirel on Day One.

Post #360:
More stuff against TGWBS's plan. I'm assuming Farael did know who the wolves were (I think by now we'd all agree that it's the first thing Lhuna told him). The way he's arguing with TGWBS, it doesn't seem like he's a wolf. It seems like honest argument ("you just don't see it, do you?") But of course he wouldn't act like he know TGWBS was a werewolf, even if he did know it.

Post #366:
Answer's Eomer's defense of TGWBS's plan. Says Eomer is beginning to worry him. Possibly accusing an innocent just so the wolves don't catch on to him, or maybe he, too, thought Eomer was the other seer, and wanted to cast suspicion on him so that accusations towards Lhuna wouldn't be trusted.

Post #370:
Corrects himself as to [B]Eomer[B]'s stance on TGWBS's plan. (Eomer said he would suspect people who were against double-lynchings, not people against the plan)

Post #386:

Originally Posted by Farael

TGWBS, I know you are not the seer because you are accusing me.... and I find it very unsettling how you try to manipulate the village.

Trying to cast suspicion on an innocent? Possibly. Might also be accusing another wolf... but is that likely? Might he not be afraid that the wolves would kill him that night? Or might he feel safe, knowing that the wolves could see he was under suspicion and wouldn't kill him, since it would lead back to those he had accused?

Post #389:
Wants us to lynch Kath and then TGWBS a day later. If TGWBS were a wolf and Farael had gained any support for this plan, surely it would have meant Farael's death that night. Then again, he was desperate at this point. His attack on TGWBS is mostly based on his wanting to root out the lovers, which Farael says is mainly the concern of a wolf. But of course that's what he would say; He was one of the Lovers!

Post #398:
Out of desperation, I think, makes an attack on Samwise. As I've said, I think that he was pretty desperate at this point. Farael aside, I've been inclined to trust Samwise so far.

Post #402:
States plan again: lynch Kath and then TGWBS

Post #406:
Tries to ease suspicion by saying Lhuna is still on his suspect list.

Post #430:
Votes for Kath, first saying he'd rather lynch her and TGWBS than her and Lhuna. Also accuses Formendacil of being one of the lovers, with Kath as, possibly, the other Lover.

Formen, either you are a cunning lover or a cunning wolf. But you are too cunning for this village anyhow.

He italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us something, probably just to imply that even if Form didn't die when Kath did, he might still be guilty. Farael was probably just trying to get suspicion on anyone else at this point.

Post #431:
Final plea to vote for Kath and not Lhuna

My main conclusion here is that you can take any statement and argue that he was telling the truth or lying just as convincingly, so I don't think we should use his posts as our MAIN reason for a lynching. (Great conclusion to come up with after spending so long on this ) I've already expressed concern about TGWBS, so I'd appreciate thoughts from people who haven't already got opinions on him (although I suppose we all have opinions on everyone).

Okay, analysis over. Sorry it's so long, sorry if I've missed anything. But here it is, hope it's helpful.

[Cailín]

Oh wonderful, Caranlondien. Whether you turn out to be an innocent or not, I must compliment you on your fine analyses so far.

I know what I have learned if TGWBS turns out to be a wolf as well... Do not tell your innocent lover the identities of your fellows. It can only harm them in the end.

Be back soon.

[the guy who be short]

Lommy - If you wish to be taken seriously, I strongly advise you to actually read what went on.

Formy - voted for Kath first. Could be a clever wolf foreseeing that people would be suspicious of the Lhuna-bandwagon and wanting to get distance from Kath in case she'd be lynched and revealed a wolf.

I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point.

TGWBS - not taking sides in the Lhuna - Kath -debate.

I was vehemently against lynching Kath as the plan made absolutely no sense.

Valier and especially Naria: probably foresaw Kath's doom and jumped on the bandwagon to seem innocent.

By this point, the village had decided to double lynch Kath and Lhuna. Those votes followed the plan and are not at all remarkable.

However, this seems to speak in your favour. I can't see a wolf being so utterly careless and...

Be polite.

I was, Abrahadam. Sigh. Alter-egos...

Originally Posted by Caran

[Farael] italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us something

I find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

since TGWBS has managed to get me back under suspicion (though I can't blame him, since I've been accusing him for days)

You remain, Caran, in my neutral category.

Originally Posted by Lal

Oh and Guy, I don't think any of us who voted for Lhuna are exonerated. As I said in my first post, the wolves would probably have realised, by Farael's febrility, that Lhuna was the traitor. They would have been as glad to see the back of her as the rest of us.

Good point, and one that I feel points to your innocence.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

By this point, the village had decided to double lynch Kath and Lhuna. Those votes followed the plan and are not at all remarkable.

Hmmm... That's why they are - they just followed a plan, they didn't have to decide themselves. A good choice for a wolf - you can't be accused of it afterwards.

I have to vote very soon.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

I must agree with you here. Why would Farael take the trouble to italicise (is that a word?) this?

On the one hand, I doubt he'd attack more than one wolf in one Day. That would be an act of desperation... but Farael could have been trying to tell us something.

It is curious indeed. I won't forget.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point.

I stand corrected; I read his post and understand your point and actually agree with you. I don't still rule out the possibility that he's trying to kill Kath in order to seem very innocent. Or maybe he believed Kath to be the lover-wolf, and preferred to get rid of her instead of Lhuna. You never know.

[the guy who be short]

I will have to vote soon next hour or so) and am not sure whether to vote for Naria, Glirdan or myself.

I'm leading towards Naria because something doesn't feel right. Infact, I'm not sure what that is...

I feel an analysis coming on. You realise you should be doing Latin, don't you?

Shut up, Abrahadam.

[Thinlómien]

TGWBS - I'm probably going to vote you. If you're having anything to say to your defense, please do it soon for I can't be online for long anymore.

[Thinlómien]

It's a goodbye and goodnight from me.

++the guy who be short

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

>Quote:
>Originally Posted by Caran
>[Farael] italicized "a cunning wolf"; I doubt this was meant to honestly tell us something<

I find that very interesting, and credit far more to it than you do.

Actually, I pointed it out for a reason; because I thought it might be significant, and I wanted to see what others thought. But I'm confused now; Farael said that when talking about Formendacil, and you say you think it's significant. What about when you said:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

>Quote:
>Formy - voted for Kath first. Could be a clever wolf foreseeing that people would be suspicious of the Lhuna-bandwagon and wanting to get distance from Kath in case she'd be lynched and revealed a wolf.<
I doubt that a wolf would bring in a second wolf at such a point.

What do you think of Formendacil? Within the same post, you seem to be defending him and accusing him. Maybe I misinterpreted one of the things you said...

Edit: Distinguishing betweeen TGWBS quoting me and me quoting him

[the guy who be short]

Post 29

Says little of importantce.

Post 103

Votes for me, as she would normally vote for Nilp in such a situation, and I'm filling in for him. This is actually very normal for her, but she could be hiding behind it. There is never, of course, reason to lynch people based on character.

Post 220

Nothing

Post 225

Claims to be surprised that Lover's can divulge wolvish info to one another.

Post 280

Very upset that Thinlo thinks she is scary. Jumps on Eonwe bandwagon.

Post 420

Says my plan will not work. It would.

Trusts Farael a little. With the amount of evidence he gave?

Sees that people suspect Kath, so claims that there have been "damning posts" convincing her of Kath's guilt. Righty...

Also suspects Lhuna. This is where she states she'll wait to see what happens before voting, which unnerves me.

Post 439

~

Post 442

Confused.

Post 443

Votes Kath on Farael's advice. Says there's only one way for somebody to know somebody else's role with certainty. Didn't we discuss the lovers earlier?

Post 449

Picks on Gurthang for using general instead of specific terms.


She really seems to have said little worth saying...

[the guy who be short]

Caranlondien - I am more in favour of Formen's innocence than his guilt, because I can't see a wolf bringing Kath into the equation. While it may be significant, I think Farael my just have been confusing us.

So, one vote for me. Please remember my request if you decide to follow in Thinlo's footsteps. Only a wolf would think double lynchings could possibly be detrimental to the village.

[Valier]

I just did a large analysis on the voting and something happened and I erased it!!!!!!!!aaaaaaahhhhhhhhh Will do it all over again.....

[the guy who be short]

++Naria

Because the way we're overlooking her worries me.

[Valier]

Ok I think looking at the voting will help us greatly today.

There a few spots on the list that could be thought of as safe zones for wolves in my opinion.These being:

Lalaith and Samwise: Both voted for Lhuna early knowing there are more votes to come, perhaps at least one of these could be a wolf.Their two votes could be seen as unfantastic in their placement, which is good if your a wolf.

Celuien: This vote for Kath would only be the second for her so also a safe spot for a wolf.

Tar and Glirdan:These votes again for Kath are not first,but not last either.This is good cover.

Thin and TGWBS: these votes being first could be good or could suggest two wolves eager to be rid of the lovers. These two could be the wolves and they planned to vote first and for each lover hoping to double lynch both and not seems suspisious for voting both one way.

I had alot more, but I find it hard to do it all over again. I could be grasping at straws, but I think I may have something.....Back later to explain more.