WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nienna

I did wonder where all the Lottie voting was coming from

Me too. She didn't look too good yesterDay, but I remember seeing her play in a very similar way before when she was innocent; the first time around, I voted her for it and have since been wary to make the same mistake again.
I'd still very much appreciate her to improve somewhat toDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What makes me be a bit cautious here is the fact that on D1 he said he was "gambling with" his vote and now he portrays himself as the "definitive innocent"... Or then it's just vanity?

Ok, I'll change it to say that, to all of you, I should appear as probably innocent.

To me, of course, I am definitely innocent.

Remember the early days, when some of us would reference ourselves in lists as: definitely innocent, impeccably honest and true, and pretty darn handsome too, if I may say so; so handsome, in fact, that were he a wolf, he would have been murdered a long time ago by a pack of envious lupine males.

These days are not over.

[Morsul the Dark]

I just realized I won't be available tomorrow at all so I have to vote now but it's not really fair to vote for anyone without more information so avoid being ModFired

++Morsul

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nog

but not taking sides at that point between the two only real candidates would look bad anyway...

That depends on your (or everybody's) personal Werewolf credo. I see your point, of course, but if somebody has no strong feelings or reasons for or against either of the top candidates, but a grounded suspicion against a third person, I think it's totally understandable and legitimate for them to follow their conscience and vote that person instead.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

The only potential wolf-on-wolf votes I see, Boro, are Mac and Nogrod; but from their questioning of Mnemo earlier in the day (i.e. before she shot into the lead) I tend to think it's unlikely.

In general I tend to think that wolves don't plan to go kamikaze early on. Even though if there are 4 of them, this is a large group of scientists, and scheming to lose a wolf on the 1st-lynch makes wolf-on-wolf less likely. I think those who did defend her, and even vote to lynch someone else (Lottie) should be under serious suspicion, but being obvious again...an innocent could have been blinded by Mnemo's wolvery. All those who defended and have suspicious votes to get someone else lynched, I'm expecting full details for your reasons.

However, be aware of the different situation. For the sake of unconfusion, I'm calling yesterday Day 2, and the previous Day 1. On Day 1, Mnemo acquired 3-votes, so it is likely they all recognized she was going to be in possible danger. So, going into Day 2, even though there was no lynch, she and her buddies knew she could be a viable lynch. Therefor, I find it more likely that a wolf could have voted for her, or applied suspicion on her at some point in the day, in an attempt to make him/herself look better. Don't forget that Mac acquired 4 votes, and Nog was under growing suspicion for him going after Roa, so just because they mentions bad feelings about her earlier, that to me does not let them off the hook. Depending upon their votes for now a known wolf, it might, but this is a different situation due to no Day-1 lynch.

For my vote against Inzil, I know I didn't get the chance to explain it greatly due to time, but to answer I believe Nog (and Mac) for it looking rather sloppy. It was. I realized that I spent more of the day trying to start eliminating people as wolves, trying to figure out people I could trust, and not enough on who I thought were wolves. By the time I turned my attention, I was getting pressed for time, and I would say I was more suspicious of Eomer than Inzil, but I didn't want to vote for Eomer based on a snap judgement of beginning to suspect him. I thought he should be able to answer, what earlier yesterday and today I was suspicious of Inzil, he had not answered my suspicions, thus my vote.

Today, with a wolf bagged and in exchange they only got an ordo (RIP beneath the ice Inzil, but I would gladly make that trade anyday), I've got more pep in my step, and you can expect better out of me.

[Nienna]

Lottie --> Lommy
Trom --> Boro
Mnemo --> Pitchwife
Nerwen --> Mnemo
Brinn --> Lottie
Boro --> Zil
Shasta --> Nerwen
Lommy --> Mnemo
Morsul --> Lottie
Wilwa --> Boro (2)
Greenie --> Mnemo
Mac --> Mnemo
Pitchwife --> Mnemo
Zil --> Lottie
Sally --> Lottie (4)
Nienna --> Lommy (2)
Nog --> Mnemo
Eomer --> Mnemo (7)

Here's yesterDay's voting for easy access.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I just realized I won't be available tomorrow at all so I have to vote now but it's not really fair to vote for anyone without more information so avoid being ModFired

++Morsul

I don't think missing one vote will get you modfired, Morsul, just FYI.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Lottie --> Lommy
Trom --> Boro
Mnemo --> Pitchwife
Nerwen --> Mnemo
Brinn --> Lottie
Boro --> Zil
Shasta --> Nerwen
Lommy --> Mnemo
Morsul --> Lottie
Wilwa --> Boro (2)
Greenie --> Mnemo
Mac --> Mnemo
Pitchwife --> Mnemo
Zil --> Lottie
Sally --> Lottie (4)
Nienna --> Lommy (2)
Nog --> Mnemo
Eomer --> Mnemo (7)

Here's yesterDay's voting for easy access.

Thanks, muffin. Very nice of you.

[Nogrod]

Okay. My "remaining eight" then (just their votes as I have not time for more right now).

In the order of their voting yesterDay...

Lottie - does not vote on D1, makes the odd vote for Lommy ("I suspect but don't have a reason", then refers two Lommy's posts and just votes her) on D2.

trom - does not vote on D1, but makes a decent argument for voting Boro (because he keeps saying the way he acts is not the way a Boro-wolf would act) on D2.

Brinn - votes Nerwen for bandwaggoning (ideas, not votes) on D1 and Lottie (because of her terrible vote on Lommy) on D2.

Boro - did not vote on D1, votes Inzil (because his case on D1 was "not only weak but faulty") on D2.

Shasta - votes Inzil on D1 (would have wished to vote for Eomer or me, did not want to vote Mnemo or Mac), on D2 votes Nerwen because of her last minute (late) vote for Mac that came out from nowhere (his points in #234 are worth a look).

Morsul - apart from quoting others in large chunks has had time to vote as well: makes the decentish vote for Mac (giving similar depictions but coming up with opposite judgements on people) on D1, on D2 votes Lottie because of her odd vote. And votes himself toDay I see...

Wilwa - did not vote on D1, votes Boro becasue he makes her uneasy (earlier refers to the same thing trom did *look above*) on D2.

Sally - votes Roa on D1 because she trusted my conviction, on D2 votes for Lottie for "acting shifty" - and clearly taking care her vote counts (eg. not voting for anyone on the top of her list).

[satansaloser2005]

I'm going to fix up some dinner then go through and hopefully offer some commentary. Back soon.

[Pitchwife]

Of the Lottie-voters, I'd say Brinn looks the most innocent to me (it's probably obvious, but I thought I'd mention it anyway). I have the impression Lottie's been getting on Brinn's nerves ever since their first game together (when innocent Lottie tried to make a case against innocent Brinn based on some blatant word-twisting). Also, Brinn's vote for Lottie was the first at a time when there were plenty other contenders for the noose.
This is saying nothing for or against Lottie herself, of course.

[Pitchwife]

I'm working on morning shift tomorrow and have to get up early, so it's bedtime for me again. On the bright side, that means I'll come home in the early afternoon (GMT+1) and have oodles of time to participate and *ahem* hopefully post something that says anything and is worth posting at all before DL.

[Nogrod]

Heh, "Mr. Agreeable" hits again...

But just as a remainder. Even if I tend to agree with you that Brinn looks pretty good, one could also interpret her votes as the real-calculated ones. Being short of time and forced to vote early because of RL a wolf like Brinn would like to show up like a rational, case-based voter. Both votes she made are "rational" and argumented but also more or less easy to produce.

The problem of course is that an innocent Brinn would have probably acted the very same way.

So I'm not disagreeing with you (another Mr. Agreeable then? ), but it's not so obvious you let us understand...


Of the others in my 8.

Lottie's vote still looks bad. The problem is whether it's "evilly bad" or just sloppy innocent.

Boro's voting-history is terrible, but he has happily both confessed that and promised to show his qualities (dang, it was the younger bro...).

Morsul manages to confuse me 100-0.

trom's vote looks decent but I'd like to hear so much more from her.

Shasta and Sally don't look so bad some of you others are painting them... but hard to say. Then again I'm not at all easy with Wilwa.


And I just realised I have totally forgotten about Bes! He voted for Mac on D1... It would be good to hear from him as well more toDay.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Regrettably, I have to announce that tromkehra had to withdraw from the game (too much of RL obligations). Once again, I am going to announce her departure in the evening narration, but for now, let it he known that she was an ordinary innocent cook. (Reposting this on the admin thread too, and up to the daily summary above so that people can read it...)

[Nienna]

Lottie:

Day One:

9. Agrees with me that reveals and false-reveals should be avoided because they are a headache and not really helpful. Hopes she can make it back by deadline.

This seems fine.

15. Talking about McCaber’s game and how we let a wolf skip through for a while

Unnecessary but not particularly suspicious.

Day Two:

223. Deadline problems so she has to vote early. List: Pitch looks suspicious, Mnemo doesn’t seem furry but isn’t crossing her off the list, Nog whisper’s wolf, Lommy seems suspicious

The list seems genuine… her take on Mnemo seems a little safe but her take on a lot of people looks this way… so… not much there.

227. Nog, Lommy, and Bes look the most wolvish followed by Morsul, Mnemo, or Pitchie but she doesn’t have any reasons.

229. Nit-pick’s Nog’s phrasing

241. Didn’t realize Nog isn’t a native English speaker so his weird phrasing makes more sense now.

244. Analyzes Lommy but only puts one post one then gives a list.

This one is super weird… I’m thinking that since Lommy had much more than one post when Lottie posted this that she had other information but forgot to post it… because it seems kind of pointless to just say “Post 1: ...” but then not put any other posts… in my opinion anyway.

Ok… so since I see very little suspicious about her behavior except not finishing her Lommy analysis before voting for her I am assuming this is why so many people voted her yesterday. Basically after some clarification from Lottie I will either be settled in my comfort of her or I will start to re-examine her… but for now she is going on the “could go either way” list.

[wilwarin538]

K, here, gonna take a look at Mnemo's posts, and then I'll be back...

[Loslote]

Here and reading.

[Nienna]

Nerwen:

Day One:

34. Isn’t much the village can do to prevent lynching gifteds, wonders if Boro is saying that we shouldn’t lynch suspicious people.

56. Vs. Boro on Reasonableness

One interesting quote that sticks out “Wolves try all kinds of tactics” … it doesn’t necessarily say innocent nor does it say guilty but it is interesting.

72. Argues with Nog about Roa’s “slip”

It would have been easy for a wolf to jump onto the slip to frame an innocent Roa … but she could also not want to be caught trying to frame Roa if she turned out innocent.

87. More vs. Boro

181. Votes Mac “for dodgy reasoning” (late).

This concerns me… maybe because she admits that it is not even bad reasoning but ‘dodgy’.

Day Two

216. Doesn’t want to assume that since Mac and Zil didn’t reveal when they were about to be lynched that they aren’t gifteds.

238. Thinks she knows what Nog’s meta-reasoning is but she isn’t sure

This could be after a nice chat with fellow wolves about what Nog was talking about.

246. Wonders why Lottie voted Lommy

253. Doesn’t like Mnemo’s argument against Zil

Wolf-on-wolf? Possible.

266. Defends herself

268. Looks at people who agreed with Nog against Roa and found only Boro and Eomer but thought Boro looked okay and not enough to go on Eomer, find’s Mnemo starting to look very sinister.

I’m not sure if a fellow would necessarily point out a sinister looking Mnemo… but it is possible

277. Quotes Mnemo saying she is a wolf, gives more reasons for not liking Mnemo

I’m thinking that a wolf-Nerwen wouldn’t directly quote a wolf-Mnemo saying she’s a wolf… so I’m thinking better of Nerwen… I could be wrong though…

293. Sally/Mnemo switcheroo theory.

Strange…

301. Votes Mnemo but adds that she isn’t really sure about it.

Summary: I’m feeling better about Nerwen after having looked at her. She could be a tricksy wolf but it doesn’t feel like it to me.

[Loslote]

Sorry about yesterDay. I had planned to look at all of her posts, but I hadn't even finished her first when I had to go. I barely managed to finish that one. In hindsight, I probably should have just dropped that Post 1 analysis, but...

[Macalaure]

I don't seem to be able to think today, so I won't contribute much now. Just a list of my current impressions, taking our newly-acquired knowledge into consideration. From good to bad:

Lommy - two crucial votes for Mnemo. Unless the wolves are really twisted, she's none.

Greenie - one early and one crucial votes for Mnemo, plus tons of sense in her posts. Innocent.

Eomer - two votes for Mnemo, though the second one was very late. Pretty innocent.

Nerwen - bad vote on D1, good vote on D2. I'm pretty confident of her innocence now.

Boro - a no vote and a first vote for someone with little support. His record isn't pretty, but I still feel good about him.

Pitch - difficult one. Tied me with Mnemo on D1 and voted Mnemo in fifth place, while everyone else had 2 or less (high wolf-on-wolf probability). Mnemo goes after him and votes him, too, which would make this a double wolf-on-wolf, whew. Sketchy situation that is cleared in Pitch's favour by the wolves killing Inzil, Mnemo's other main suspect. Safe to say, I think, that the wolves would not have chosen him if Pitch was one of them.

Morsul - he tied Lottie with Mnemo, which is bad. Other than that, I don't find much fault with him.

Lottie - can't say much. Confused, but I don't think maliciously so.

Brinn - first vote for Lottie, a promising bandwaggon after her strange behaviour. If I was a co-wolf of Mnemo and looking for a subtle way to save her (since it was obvious she would be in trouble), this would be a good way. Brinn continues to be a big question mark for me.

Bes - tied me with Mnemo on D1, then a no-vote. Deserves scrutiny.

Wilwa - first a no-vote, and then she tied Boro with the rest. Worth a careful look.

Nogrod - kept himself out of the fray with his vote for Roa on D2, voted Mnemo when it was clear that she would be gone eventually anyway. Nogrod isn't known to be scrupulous about his mates, especially when they're in danger.

Shasta - voted Inzil to save Mnemo (and not me)? Threw away vote on D2. Suspicious, which is annoying because I had faith in him so far.

Nienna - voted Inzil to save Mnemo (and not me)? Threw away vote on D2. Suspicious.

Sally - threw away her vote on D1 and made Lottie's waggon competitive again on D2 (very quickly after Inzil made it seem possible again). Very bad.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, so here are some of Mnemo's more important posts, I left out some that were repetitive, I did this fairly quickly and I'm tired, but cause I won't be around too too much tomorrow I wanted to contribute at least a bit....


#20:

As far as the role discussion goes... that's basically everyone's attempts to get something productive done on a Day One scenario. Since we're not given too much new material to chew over, I can't think of any other productive pot-stirring methods. At the same time, what else is there really to say, except, "Don't Reveal"?

*sigh*

Not much to be done, really. I can never get a feel for anyone off Day One, and the "what if this suspect's a gifted?" paranoia is doubled because the gifteds, like the baddies, know each other--giving the teams one more similarity that my addled pate really can't afford.

Nothing really stands out to me here, seems like a fairly common thing to say.

#41:

The vote is the one powerful tool we as a group have; if we give that up all we are are meaningless numbers. Yeah, we might screw things up, but at least we did something.

Plus as Roa said lynch votes can be really helpful for analysis, plus all that the wolves would have to do is give us a completely flusterworthy no-trace kill and we'd be back in the same pickle.

And if we want to translate this into numbers... the wolves (and, to an extent, the Ranger) already have control of who dies toNight. We control (and yes, there are wolves in our number, but in this case they are just four among many) who dies toDay.

#97:

Am I the only one who's convinced that the current tiffs are just opinionated ordos going insane, and the real wolves are sitting back and practically rubbing their hands with glee?

Although Roa's CobNog theory is interesting... Still, I think that Nogrod as a good cobbler would try to hold out until after Day One to start wreaking havoc. I'd just like to lay off both of them for a while and look at other possibilities...

I am glad, however, that we no longer have the problem we had thirteen hours ago or so! At the very least Boro and Roa should be commended for their apt bit of pot-stirring.

Since we've been discussing wolf strategies so much (reasonability etc.), could we please try to look at things from other angles? What I'm thinking of is more of along the lines of IC versus OOC. With a good deal of us (that's where the strategy falls short--our beloved n00bs!) there's a huge paper trail for how they normally play as innocent villagers. I think that that's a much better indicator of wolf-hood than whether a person sounds reasonable or not.

Mentions Nog and Boro here, not really anything overly huge though.

#108: a bit of a list, says she definitely won't vote for Nog, Roa or Boro...didn't like that Lottie and Nienna "restated the rules"...tempted to vote Morsul for confusion and Mac vote...good with Mac and Eomer...Pitch and Inzil feel "off"...wants to hear more from Brinn....wants more from Lommy and Shasta and myself...

So the fact that she was so sure about Nog, Roa and Boro makes me think that either Boro or Nog might be a wolf, mentions alot of others pretty lightly.

#128: wolf vibes from Pitch and Inzil

#130: coin flips them, goes with Inzil

#192:

Which is why I've decided that I'm not going to vote to try to save people anymore, much less vote "politically." And I encourage others to follow suit. Granted, we all had little information to go off of yesterday, and we have little more information to go off of today. But when everyone's doing this sort of thing it creates divisions within the crew, divisions that wolves will be all too happy to exploit.

#222:

Shasta: because suddenly guilt becomes relative.

Still don't really know what she meant by this.

#225:

But it's always easy to vote for someone who you think voted weird. I didn't vote for you because 1). you were pretty yourself, as far as I could tell (which my vibes yesterday were saying were off for Inzil and Pitch... analysis of both hopefully coming up in an hour or two), and 2). to me it felt like doing so would be a copout. I don't like making "easy" votes in Werewolf, unless the Seer has come out and told me who a wolf is.

#237: Summary about Inzil,

Several of the posts he made, especially early on, seemed to be for sheer zeal of the game... that first summary, continuing on with Boro... even correcting Roa! That's the kind of exuberance I expect from two kinds of people: 1). wolves, and 2). me. The fact that he was in the most previous game pushes him more into the "wolf" camp, as I know that much of my own exuberance comes from the fact that I take long breaks in between games.

In short, I've been suspecting him because if he's not a wolf, then he's acting too much like me for my own liking. I don't trust people who act like me.

# 243:

Even when I analyze people, it tends to be what this says about me and not what it says about the player, because I actually know myself and how I think!

Go ahead and suspect me because of my vote yesterDay. I completely deserve that, because I should have taken a few deep breaths and thought things over some more. But finding me suspicious because of who I am as a reader of the gamethread and as a player makes me just a tad bit sad.

#263: Pitch Analasis, "silly jumpiness", and "short discrete chunks" also found Lottie's vote weird

#267: votes Pitch and says that it's a "concrete rational reason"

#270: linking this one, cause it's so long and interesting here

random banter with Sally for quite a while


and then that's about it, not really as useful as I had hoped.
So really she doesn't mention too many people all that much. The one thing I got from all this is that I think Pitch might be innocent, she mostly concentrated on Inzil and Pitch and Inzil was innocent, and she voted for Pitch at a time that he very well could have been lynched, so I think he's probably fine. Her exchange with Sally is a bit weird, not really enough to suspect Sally, but I'll be keeping an eye on her. She seemed to be very positive of Nog's innocence, saying so more then once and insisting that the RoaNog exchange was innocent on innocent. So that's a bit interesting, the fact that Roa ended up innocent, perhaps Nog wasn't and she was trying to make it look like it really was innocent on innocent debate. I don't however find Nog all that suspicious, but still, I'm gonna keep that in mind.


Wow I was really hoping to get more out of all that, but I'm really exhausted and have to work late tomorrow. So I'll be back in the morning for a little bit, my vote will be early I'm afraid. Maybe someone will see something in Mnemo's posts that I didn't.

edit: x'ed with Lottie and Mac

[Loslote]

Looking at people:

Boro is fairly logical and makes sense most of the time, but I can't quite get a reading on him.

Eomer I have no idea about, but probably innocent.

I don't think Morsul is a wolf, but I can't say with anything like certainty that he's an ordo.

I think Brinn's innocent...we just get on each other's nerves...

Pitchie seems innocent, maybe too much so? I'm not too worried about him right now, though.

Nienna seems good. She's one of the ones I feel most confident about...not that that's very confident...

Something still feels off about Nogrod, but I can't put my finger on it.

I thought Mac looked good yesterday, and I think so even more now. When he mentioned that we wouldn't learn too much from my role if I died, and more from Mnemo's - that seemed ordoish.

I don't know what to think about sally. She doesn't jump out as a wolf, but she's done some things that make me think.

Lommy, as you may have noticed, definitely looks furry to me. I still have no proof or reasoning, so I'll probably ease back on that one.

Nerwen looks genuine.

Bes still looks suspicious to me. He is a newbie, so I'm not looking very hard at him yet, but I do think he could easily be a wolf.

Shasta could go either way for me.

Wilwa looks suspicious, but she's not at the top of my list.

Greenie I'm not sure about.

So, Suspicious:
Bes, Lommy, and Nog still look the worst to me.

Slightly suspicious:
Wilwa, sally, and maybe Pitchie.

Unsure:
Shasta, Greenie, Morsul

Leaning innocent:
Brinn, Boro, Eomer

Probably innocent:
Nerwen, Nienna, Mac.

EDIT: xed with wilwa and Mac

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't think missing one vote will get you modfired, Morsul, just FYI.

Yes but on day 3...4 th next day I can't vote so I'd be missing two votes I panicked about getting modfired for missing two votes... my show ended earlier than I thought...

[Morsul the Dark]

For the record I still would have voted tonight so the reasonings still would have been bad I voted myself because it's a neutral vote..

[Loslote]

Oh, and just to get this out of the way, because I know it's going to come up...

Don't lynch me toDay, because I am the Secret Role. I am a limited seer. I have only one dream, on Night Four - aka, toNight.

I don't know how much longer I'll have online, but I should be able to get on later. Hopefully. Until then, have fun being chaotic.

[Nienna]

Ok kids we need to find some new suspects because I'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure Sally isn't a wolf... and since I think it is safe to assume for the moment that Lottie isn't a wolf... new suspects need to be brought forward. I'd also appreciate some reasoning behind why people seem to find me very suspicious and willing to kill just to see if I'm evil. *Waits patiently to be analyzed*

I'd love to hear more from Lommy. I do not agree with Mac that her two decisive votes for Mnemo make her look super innocent. Her behavior has still been a bit strange and her votes could easily have been wolf-on-wolf.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok kids we need to find some new suspects because I'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure Sally isn't a wolf... and since I think it is safe to assume for the moment that Lottie isn't a wolf... new suspects need to be brought forward.

Not again...

For a new suspect: How about Bes? The more I look at him, the more uneasy I get, but I don't have time to analyze him right now. I've only got fifteen minutes or so before I've got to go...

[Loslote]

Oh, well. Looking at Bes:

Post 1: IC banter, comments on the Boro issue, suggests no one votes Day 1.

Post 2: Backs off when Roa and Mnemo veto the 'no voting' suggestion.

Post 3: IC banter, says he's going to sleep.

Post 4: Says he's reading up and waiting for Legate to answer a question on the rules.

Post 5: Backpedals on the Boro issue; says he doesn't know what to think about Nog and Roa; votes Mac because Inzil's arguments looked best.

Post 6: Apologizes for his hasty Mac vote earlier; promises to be more careful.

Post 7: Summarizes Mac's posts; says Pitchie looked just as suspicious

Post 8: Says he won't be voting; promises to post more on Day 3 if he's still here.

He hasn't come on again, but when you look at him, he never really says anything...might just be newbieness, might be wolfishness. As he's my top suspect,

++Bes

So sorry if you're innocent...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I have the impression Lottie's been getting on Brinn's nerves ever since their first game together (when innocent Lottie tried to make a case against innocent Brinn based on some blatant word-twisting). Also, Brinn's vote for Lottie was the first at a time when there were plenty other contenders for the noose.

Heh, I didn't even remember that until you mentioned it...and even then it's still blurry. But really, I don't have any harsh feelings against Loslote; I simply found her actions yesterDay to be suspicious.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Green: probably innocent, voted Mnemo first.

Eomer: definitely innocent, put Mnemo in lead.

Lommy: definitely innocent, put Mnemo onto 3 votes.

Mac: possibly guilty, said he'd prefer Inzi over Mnemo a lot. Maybe too strong and incriminating for a wolf? Also, highly suspicious of Mnemo next day. PROBABLY INNOCENT.

Shasta: guilty? tried to save Mnemo

Nienna: guilty? ditto

Inzi: innocent, sacrificed to save Mnemo on first day and Mnemo also suspected him the day after, after he already had a lot of votes.

Nerwen: probably innocent, strongly against Mnemo on second day.

Pitch: innocent? voted for by Mnemo at start of day two.

Wilwa: guilty? when votes are 1 each for lots of people, wilwa defends Mnemo.

Nogrod: innocent? seems critical of Mnemo

Sally: guilty? also doesn't want to vote Mnemo

Nienna tried to save Mnemo again by killing Loslote. GUILTY

So apparently Eomer has come to the conclusion that everyone who voted Mnemo is innocent and those who tried to save her are probably guilty. That is a horrible assumption to make. While those who weren't convinced of Mnemo's guilt may look more suspicious, that doesn't necessarily mean they are. And with seven votes for Mnemo, I think it could be very likely that at least one is wolf-on-wolf. There are players among the Mnemo voters who are risk-takers and would probably be perfectly okay with sacrificing a wolf to make them look better.

Btw, I'm slightly concerned about this jump on Nienna. Yes, she tried to save Mnemo twice, but that doesn't make her automatically guilty. I've seen plenty of innocents get lynched in the past for this reason and because of that, the wolves could easily set Nienna up to be toDay's lynch, so let's not jump to conclusions. Of course now that I've said this, she'll probably turn out to be a wolf after all. But unless she does something majorly suspicious toDay, I doubt I'll vote her.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Don't lynch me toDay, because I am the Secret Role. I am a limited seer. I have only one dream, on Night Four - aka, toNight.

Hmm...I'm not convinced. The problem with the secret role is that it's so much easier for a baddie to get away with a fake reveal since we don't know what the role is. One dream for the entire game? A limited seer is certainly possible, though I honestly expected more from a secret role.

While I'm still not sure whether to believe Loslote's claim, I will give her the benefit of the doubt for toDay and see what dream she comes up with toMorrow. It'd be pretty silly to lynch her now with the chance that she is telling the truth. I wonder if there'll be a counter reveal...

[Bes]

I can't fault Lottie's reasons for suspecting me, she makes valid points. I mean, I can sit here and explain why I haven't been active all day, but you guys don't know me to be sure whether or not I'm being sincere (By the by, called in to work today unexpectedly. I was expecting to be available to play from 4PM to 8PM EST, but it didn't happen that way. One of the other employees sprung a doctor's appointment on the supervisor as a surprise. )

I am surprised by her reveal, though. I mean, very surprised. Bear with me: If she's telling the truth, then she's put herself in a perfect position to get night killed, and (if I understand how it works properly) be prevented from ever revealing her dream. Waiting until tomorrow to reveal and telling everyone what she dreamed would have easily prevented that, and I don't think the suspicion against her is sufficient at the moment for lynching to be a big concern for her. Which makes me think that this is a false reveal by a nervous wolf, following up an easy vote on someone that's been stumbling over his own feet through the game so far.

I dunno, other people's thoughts? Also, I'm a slow typist, so I expect to cross with a few people.

Edit: Really? Huh, no I didn't. But I am reminded: Brinn is convinced by this reveal awfully quickly...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Bes

I am surprised by her reveal, though. I mean, very surprised. Bear with me: If she's telling the truth, then she's put herself in a perfect position to get night killed, and (if I understand how it works properly) be prevented from ever revealing her dream.

Well, so long as the ranger is still alive by toNight, they can protect her. I too thought it odd that she would reveal now considering she's not even a serious lynch candidate at the moment. But if she is telling the truth and considering it doesn't look like she'll be back before deadline, she could've just panicked.

Originally Posted by Bes

But I am reminded: Brinn is convinced by this reveal awfully quickly...

Wait, what? I just said I'm NOT convinced of her reveal. But still, even if there is a counter reveal, I'll still give her the benefit of the doubt for toDay because I don't want to risk the chance that she is what she says she is and lose a possible dream. If this is a false reveal, we will figure it out eventually; we always do.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok kids we need to find some new suspects because I'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure Sally isn't a wolf... and since I think it is safe to assume for the moment that Lottie isn't a wolf... new suspects need to be brought forward. I'd also appreciate some reasoning behind why people seem to find me very suspicious and willing to kill just to see if I'm evil. *Waits patiently to be analyzed*

Well now you can't expect us to just sit here and be hunky-dory about those who defended Mnemo and voted in an attempt to save her. You are under suspicion for strong and understandable reasons.

However, as I said before, I think votes can be craftily manipulated by the wolves. And since Mnemo had 3-votes on Day 1 I'm putting more stock into the wolf-on-wolf than Eomer is. That still doesn't change the fact that several people defended her, and several more didn't have much to say about her, so Eomer is being 100% understandable in his focus on those who defended Mnemo.

Taking other stuff into consideration, aside from the voting, I think you look pretty good Nienna. Your consistant efforts against Lommy make you look more innocent than others who defended Mnemo. Lommy is a tough lynch, and I would think any wolves who were trying some sort of effort to save Mnemo would try to turn the focus on someone who was under more suspicion/an easier lynch.

I will just tell you though, I have no idea what you're seeing that is suspicious with Lommy. I may be putting too much stock in judging people based on feelings and words, but Lommy said she was "detached." A wolf doesn't say that, plain and simple. A wolf is excited to be a wolf, they may not be a loud/active player, but there still is a certain level of excitement, and involvement, about having the role.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So apparently Eomer has come to the conclusion that everyone who voted Mnemo is innocent and those who tried to save her are probably guilty. That is a horrible assumption to make. While those who weren't convinced of Mnemo's guilt may look more suspicious, that doesn't necessarily mean they are. And with seven votes for Mnemo, I think it could be very likely that at least one is wolf-on-wolf. There are players among the Mnemo voters who are risk-takers and would probably be perfectly okay with sacrificing a wolf to make them look better.

Eomer is pretty much saying that, but that's still an exaggeration. It's like when people thought I was saying we should lynch all the reasonable players. Eomer isn't saying lynch everyone who defended/voted to save Mnemo, because there just aren't that many wolves. But he is rightfully pointing attention to the sizeable group of people who did something to defend Mnemo. Anyone in that group could be a wolf and it's only right they all should come under suspicion for it.

Edit: crossed with Brinn

[Bes]

Brinn: That's what I get for speed reading. Appologies. Also, I need to get to bed. See you all tomorrow. I'd say I'd get more done, but honestly that seems to be the kiss of death for my productivity so far. We'll see. :-/

[Boromir88]

Lottie's reveal makes perfect sense. If she only gets one dream, her task was to stay alive to get it, and with the Ranger's help, she'll get it.

I see no reason to doubt it. The wolves just lost one yesterday, why throw another one out into the water? We'll find out if she's telling the truth or not within a few days.

I do think with what happened yesterday, Lottie wasn't going to be under suspicion like she was yesterday, but if she's gone for the rest of the day I certainly understand her reason to not want to risk it.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Boro

Eomer isn't saying lynch everyone who defended/voted to save Mnemo, because there just aren't that many wolves. But he is rightfully pointing attention to the sizeable group of people who did something to defend Mnemo. Anyone in that group could be a wolf and it's only right they all should come under suspicion for it.

Well, I didn't say I thought Eomer wanted to lynch everyone who defended Mnemo, just that he labeled them all as suspicious. But I was more concerned about him labeling everyone who voted Mnemo as most likely innocent. I agree that those who defended Mnemo should be looked at because there's a good chance one is a wolf, but I also think it's just as likely that there's one wolf among the group that voted Mnemo.

[Nerwen]

Hi all. I've wasted an hour or more going through Mnemo's posts, but I've decided there's no point posting my full analysis, because it came up with pretty much the same result as Wilwa's. Which is to say that she left no clear leads to anyone; might have a connection with Sally because of all their bantering (but might also have been trying to make it look that way); and that her repeated statements about feeling sure that both Nogrod and Roa were innocent might point at Nogrod. Or not; it could have been meant to make herself look good if either were lynched and proven innocent. I also agree that her vote for Pitchwife is unlikely to have been wolf-on-wolf, unless she assumed no-one would follow it.

This is what perplexes me; she was careless enough to get herself lynched yesterDay with her downright absurd "cases" ("Zil plays like me! That makes him a wolf!"), yet careful enough to leave no real trails. Interesting.

Her comments on Lottie are a case in point; in the same post that she votes Pitch she describes Lottie as "wolvish". Now, is she fake-suspecting a packmate (while voting someone else) or trying to keep an innocent in the running? Not much help in evaluating Lottie's claim, anyway.

EDIT:fixed formatting.

[Boromir88]

Greenie:

Day 1-
#109 agrees with Mnemo that everyone should take a deep breath
#118 wary of Mnemo for popping in being active, but not being very confrontational
#124 will vote for Nog or Mnemo
#132 votes Mnemo (1/3)
Day 2-
#272 explains vote for Mnemo instead of Nog
#324 agrees with Nerwen that Mnemo's had a change in behavior from Day 1 to Day 2. Is confused by it, but still suspicious
#357 will probably vote for Mnemo
#385 votes Mnemo (3/7 and breaks 3-way tie)

All I can say is if Greenie's a wolf, this is an absolutely bravura performance and you would deserve to win. It's tempting to think conspiratorily and say "what a perfectly placed Day 2 vote if Greenie's a wolf, because it breaks the 3-way tie," but all your other posts are consistant and match up.

Plus Greenie and Nerwen point out Mnemo's change in behavior from Day 1 to Day 2. I have no reservations about assuming Greenie is innocent.

Wilwa

Day 2-
#239 good with Nerwen and Mnemo
#346

Mnemo is acting a bit different then yesterday, but I still don't really feel suspicious of her.

Acknowledges Nerwen's point of Mnemo's behavior change, but if that isn't trying to deflect suspicion away from it I don't know what is.
#363

uhmm....I'm definitely gonna vote for someone on this list, cause there's no way I'm bringing a number 8 into the mix. Lommy hasn't stood out to me, Boro makes me uneasy so maybe him, Pitch too though after a quick skim through he was iffy too, Mnemo I'm fairly ok with, Lottie haven't really payed attention too, Zil I don't even know why people are suspicious of him, and Nerwen I'm good with.

Within 40 minutes Mnemo changes from "don't really feel suspicious of her," to "fairly ok with."
#381 votes Boro (ties me with Mnemo), as she previously stated

Not only does wilwa look bad based on her defense of Mnemo, but her suspicions against me are flat out weak. I expect some unfamiliar players to get adjusted to my style, like trom and Bes, but wilwa should be much more familiar with me.

Ya, ya, I know we can all be different, and change and all that jazz, but just look at her reason for voting me. All she says about me several times is I make her uneasy" and then she points out a quote saying my last line looked strange. Chalk-full of vague, negatively connotated words that really don't point to someone being a wolf at all, but everyone thinks "strange" and "odd" = suspicious

Look at #363 too when she's trying to figure out who to vote, Mnemo's got 2 and everyone else has 1. She doesn't want to add another name, so she looks at everyone with votes. Trying to figure out who would be a good one to tie Mnemo with, but by the time you go and vote you realize you've only said I'm making you "uneasy?" Besides, throwing a random "maybe Pitch" in there? I have no reservations about calling wilwa a wolf.

With that, nap time, I'll finish on everyone else tomorrow. Nog, good to see me return to true form?

Edit: crossed with Nerwen

[Boromir88]

One quick thing before...

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Well, I didn't say I thought Eomer wanted to lynch everyone who defended Mnemo, just that he labeled them all as suspicious. But I was more concerned about him labeling everyone who voted Mnemo as most likely innocent. I agree that those who defended Mnemo should be looked at because there's a good chance one is a wolf, but I also think it's just as likely that there's one wolf among the group that voted Mnemo.

Fair enough, and by fair enough, I mean I concede that you weren't exaggerating anything. I tend to think Eomer stays much more focused and straight to the point, which is why I'm very pleased to see this from him. Of course there are weaknesses to going with the black and white approach, but there are also several strengths. For one, you don't drive yourself crazy trying to endlessly spin your head in circles of all the possibities (some reasonable possiblities, others plain outrageous ).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Read and caught up (mostly - will need to probably re-read tomorrow), but as it's nearly three in the morning, I should get to bed.

What I can say is this - Brinniel could be a wolf (not discounting her D1 connection to Nerwen) trying to save a Niennawolf with that next-to-most-recent post of hers. She brings up valid points, but it's almost with a "I'm not sure it's a good idea, but you guys do what you wanna do" attitude.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, Brinn, Werewolf can be a simple game. I have reasons for finding the Mnemo voters probably innocent, for now at least. After a few days we can examine more theories but for now, when we still have so many people alive in this expedition, I'm not going to complicate things.

Aye, they could have voted wolf-on-wolf, but I won't bother seriously entertaining that possibility - because I have four other villagers in my sight who are, to my mind, obviously more suspicious.

Or should I say susp-ice-ous?

Yes, yes I should.