Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why does it have to be past midnight here (RL)?

Exactly.

Initial thoughts: we could go through wilwa's posts to see if she said somewhere something that would prove otherwise (like suspecting Hakon in a way she would not have done if she were just posing to the WWs or something).

I wouldn't put it past the WWs to make a "back-up plan" like that, or maybe wilwa making it up in place, although to be honest, if it is so, I am surprised, as I did not expect it this far... my view on the WWs was this far that they are rather less... hmm... constructive, or how to say it.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Wilwa could be lying. I mean if you did all lynch me then she is revealed as the wolf if she had not made that post. She knows I cannot protect Pitchwife tonight since I already revealed my plan and the wolves know I protected Pitchwife last night.

WHAT???

I don't get you Hakon...

If wilwa says you're the real ranger why would we lynch you?

It doesn't mean wilwa wouldn't be lying just to save her neck... but that wouldn't be your downfall anyway. Or is there something else we should know about... well, like of everything?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm getting a bad feeling there are some general tricksiness in this game... with Mr. Lovecraft involved that would not be an unheard of idea.

Eurgh. I have thought of that on the Day when Morsul and the two Rangers revealed, but I have firmly rejected it. I hope not. And I am not going to accept it. Let us stay focused, that's all we can do.

EDIT: keeping x-ing...

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

WHAT???

I don't get you Hakon...

If wilwa says you're the real ranger why would we lynch you?

It doesn't mean wilwa wouldn't be lying just to save her neck... but that wouldn't be your downfall anyway. Or is there something else we should know about... well, like of everything?

I meant if you had lynched me and she never made that post. If I was lynched and she did not make that post at all today then she would be revealed as a wolf. I refuse to believe she is an innocent. I know a Wolfwa when I see one.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Eurgh. I have thought of that on the Day when Morsul and the two Rangers revealed, but I have firmly rejected it. I hope not. And I am not going to accept it. Let us stay focused, that's all we can do.

Likewise. And I agree with your conclusion as well... until the given setting starts to look too inbearable to hold.

Then we have to start finding new ways to solve this.

But before that we should stick to do our best with what we have in a sane-scenario...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

WHAT???

I don't get you Hakon...

If wilwa says you're the real ranger why would we lynch you?

It doesn't mean wilwa wouldn't be lying just to save her neck... but that wouldn't be your downfall anyway. Or is there something else we should know about... well, like of everything?

Okay, I am not sure now that I understood what either of you is saying. Hakon, what are you trying to say? I cannot somehow decipher the thought. (For the same reason, I can't tell what is that Nogrod is wondering about.)

EDIT: x-ed again, okay, now I think I could (maybe, hopefully) understand it.

[Nerwen]

This game is getting crazier and crazier...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm getting a bad feeling there are some general tricksiness in this game... with Mr. Lovecraft involved that would not be an unheard of idea.

You and me both.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I wish we could know who the wolves went for, as that could well give us some clues. I too am very surprised Pitch didn't get it last Night. They sure are taking an awful risk leaving him around.

Now why did you make that assumption?

X'd since Nogrod at #440.

[Nogrod]

I think I saw your point Hakon...

Language barrier... ot different ways of conceptualising things... whatever.

[Hakon]

I think Wilwa made that post because she is a wolf that wanted to escape getting revealed as one. If I was lynched she would be revealed as a wolf. By making that post Wolfwa made it seem like she was an innocent and she could avoid getting me lynched which would reveal her.

Seerwife(hope you don't mind), we need your dream.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I think Wilwa made that post because she is a wolf that wanted to escape getting revealed as one. If I was lynched she would be revealed as a wolf. By making that post Wolfwa made it seem like she was an innocent and she could avoid getting me lynched which would reveal her.

... or after you were killed by Night we wouldn't lynch her the next Day...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I think Wilwa made that post because she is a wolf that wanted to escape getting revealed as one. If I was lynched she would be revealed as a wolf. By making that post Wolfwa made it seem like she was an innocent and she could avoid getting me lynched which would reveal her.

This makes sense. He suggests she's trying pretty much exactly what Macawolf did in Brinn's game.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now why did you make that assumption?

Isn't the seer always a danger to the wolves? The greatest threat to them?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I think Wilwa made that post because she is a wolf that wanted to escape getting revealed as one. If I was lynched she would be revealed as a wolf. By making that post Wolfwa made it seem like she was an innocent and she could avoid getting me lynched which would reveal her.

Seerwife(hope you don't mind), we need your dream.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

... or after you were killed by Night we wouldn't lynch her the next Day...

Yes, I guess that's the point. Brilliant, well. What next, then. Somehow, I am still thinking about lynching wilwa. It is clear, at least, rather than anything else, that Hakon is not a Wolf, which is a good thing.

Let's see our Dreamer's dream, then.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Isn't the seer always a danger to the wolves? The greatest threat to them?

Yes s/he is. But the narration gives us a clue someone was saved last night by the ranger... why wouldn't it be Pitchie? Why do you think it should have been someone else?

[Pitchwife]

Sorry, I can't shed any light on the ranger question. As we all assumed one of them was a wolf, I just decided to let them stew a little and see if one of them would give xerself away. I certainly didn't expect this result.
As a matter of fact, I did dream a wolf last Night - but it's neither of them.
What wilwa says sounds in a way too crazy to be made up. But if she's telling the truth, that means we have one wolf left out there in the dark, and I think it might be a good idea to give the two of them a little more rope to hang themselves, not knowing which one is going to be exposed. What do you say?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yes it is. But the narration gives us a clue someone was saved last night by the ranger... why wouldn't it be Pitchie? Why do you think it should have been someone else?

My point exactly.

EDIT:X'd with Pitch.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yes s/he is. But the narration gives us a clue someone was saved last night by the ranger... why wouldn't it be Pitchie? Why do you think it should have been someone else?

I wasn't speaking solely of last Night, just the fact that he's still here after being revealed on Day 1. Should have been clearer, I guess.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Sorry, I can't shed any light on the ranger question. As we all assumed one of them was a wolf, I just decided to let them stew a little and see if one of them would give xerself away. I certainly didn't expect this result.
As a matter of fact, I did dream a wolf last Night - but it's neither of them.
What wilwa says sounds in a way too crazy to be made up. But if she's telling the truth, that means we have one wolf left out there in the dark, and I think it might be a good idea to give the two of them a little more rope to hang themselves, not knowing which one is going to be exposed. What do you say?

Why do they need extra rope? I think we have plenty available. But as you like.

EDIT- Ah. Never mind. I missed your reference to the 'two' of them

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As a matter of fact, I did dream a wolf last Night - but it's neither of them.
What wilwa says sounds in a way too crazy to be made up. But if she's telling the truth, that means we have one wolf left out there in the dark, and I think it might be a good idea to give the two of them a little more rope to hang themselves, not knowing which one is going to be exposed. What do you say?

Actually it's a good idea, even if the wolves will be really careful after this revelation of yours as they don't know which one of them was dreamt... *hush*

Just don't leave your revelation too late so no confusions of possible last minute frenzies get us...

So a wolf in a bag toDay! Great!

Off to bed with a lighter heart (it's coming 1.00AM here and waking-up call is at 6.30AM)...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Sorry, I can't shed any light on the ranger question. As we all assumed one of them was a wolf, I just decided to let them stew a little and see if one of them would give xerself away. I certainly didn't expect this result.
As a matter of fact, I did dream a wolf last Night - but it's neither of them.
What wilwa says sounds in a way too crazy to be made up. But if she's telling the truth, that means we have one wolf left out there in the dark, and I think it might be a good idea to give the two of them a little more rope to hang themselves, not knowing which one is going to be exposed. What do you say?

Well, at first, is there anything, based on what you know now, Pw, that could point to Wilwa being the other Wolf?

We can think more later. If there is the other Wolf, I see it can be clever to keep your dreamwolf around for a while yet to see people's reactions. On the other hand, we probably are not going to collect much as the WWs will become initially careful (from this point when you said it on, probably, actually). So we can as well lynch the one.

You should certainly give us the name... well, or you could try to pull it off by letting us choose a person for lynch toDay by our best conscience, and tell your Wolf's name to us only just before the DL, but there's the point that some mistakingly reasoning innocents might get caught in the trap and get suspected then. Especially as the WWs will know... but then, they could be caught based on "too coldblooded reasoning"... but then again... well, whatever.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I wasn't speaking solely of last Night, just the fact that he's still here after being revealed on Day 1. Should have been clearer, I guess.

And what of it?

EDIT: x-ed with nog

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, possibly my last thought before going to bed.

The way I see the situation now is this: we really should (or: alas, need to) probably lynch wilwa at some point. Because unless we lynch some other Wolf (aside from the one Pitchwife dreamt of), then we will basically never know whether there is the last Wolf somewhere out there or if it is Wilwa. In that case, the most logical, although perhaps slightly coldblooded, but really rational, choice would be to lynch Wilwa toDay, and then see. And if wilwa turns out innocent, then we will have one more Day of interaction of a known Wolf, if Pitch does not reveal his dream yet now but only at the end of the Day. (A little value in that, but could be at least something.)

But really the more I write the more I think that wilwa is a Wolf. Because really, if the WWs are really in bad condition now - and they are, the Seer is still alive - they would try to kill him. And when they kill him, they would be exposed, likely, if one of them is the Ranger. So wilwa's revelation as an ordo was really probably the most logical thing to do, basically the only thing that was left for the WWs.

So in conclusion, I think she could be one.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just don't leave your revelation too late so no confusions of possible last minute frenzies get us...

Don't worry. I'll have to go to bed in a while, and I won't be around after Tuesday 9am GMT, but I'll let you all know before that.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, at first, is there anything, based on what you know now, Pw, that could point to Wilwa being the other Wolf?

If you're asking for possible connections between my dreamwolf and wilwa, you realize I can hardly answer this without revealing who the dreamwolf is, don't you?
Apart from that, I confess that I haven't been looking at wilwa very closely outside of the ranger question. I'm doing that now, and one thing I've noticed is that she was our late Kit's prime suspect on Day 1. As Roa noticed, wilwa never commented on Kit's suspicions of her.
As for her anti-reveal toDay... Well. There was always a slight possibility we'd believe her and lynch Hakon, and I think it would have been wise for a wilwolf to make a Plan B for that case. By now, she'd have had 2 Days to prepare it.

PS. Hakon, I forgot: well done. Thank you.

[Inziladun]

Voting records of those still living (Pitch and Nog excluded), for anyone who might find it useful:

Day 1

Morsul--> Nienna
Hakon--> Me
Craydon--> Me
Wilwa--> Hakon
Roa--> SPM (1st vote, pre-Pitch's reveal)
Me--> SPM
Nerwen--> SPM
Lari--> SPM
Brinn--> SPM

Lynched- SPM


Day 2

Hakon--> Wilwa
Morsul--> Hakon
Craydon--> Morsul
Wilwa--> Nienna
Me--> Nienna
Lari--> Nienna
Roa--> Nog
Nerwen--> Morsul
Brinn--> Me
Legate--> Me

Lynched- Nienna


Day 3

Craydon--> Me
Hakon--> Wilwa
Me--> Loslote
Wilwa--> Brinn
Brinn--> Loslote
Morsul--> No Vote
Roa--> Nerwen
Lari--> Hakon
Legate--> Lari
Nerwen--> Lari

Lynched- Loslote

[Inziladun]

Wilwa's votes and explanations:

The Day 1 vote was for Hakon, saying that his rationale for voting me was thin (it was, but still...).

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

So...Hakon has played many games, and therefore should have some better logic by now I would think. His vote and comments are weird and I don't like them so

++ Hakon

Day 2 was for Nienna. This one bothered me especially, as it came very soon after I had done a post on why I felt Nienna suspicious. She used similar wording to mine to justify the vote.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Honestly, I've been so focused on all these reveals I've barely looked at anyone else, but one thing that stuck out was how Nienna claimed that Nerwen was "closed minded" about Morsul. That just doesn't make much sense to me. I know that's flimsy, but I just don't have the time I expected to have to look closer at other people. Uh, this sucks.

++Nienna

And then Day 3, for Brinn. She based it on Brinn remarking that Morsul could be an ordo making a fake reveal. Brinn didn't appear to me to seriously consider that possibility, so this does look like a reach.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

That whole thing really bugs me. I mean it's not completely unlikely that an ordo would reveal in order to protect a gifted, but Morsul doesn't do it in a way that could really be useful, and for a new player to try something like that as an ord, that seems unlikely. Maybe if it was someone who's played alot and could pull it off better, but I don't think that's the case here and I really don't see how Brinn could find that possible.

I know this is flimsy, and trust me that's driving me nuts, but I don't have anything concrete on anyone and this just stuck out to me. If I manage to still be alive tomorrow and Brinn is too I'll look more closely at her but for now I really just have to vote and this is all that stood out for me. Sorry.

++Brinn

[Pitchwife]

OK. After some retro-investigation, I'm inclined to agree with Legate that our wolves may not need that much more rope after all.
Lari is my dreamwolf.
What does that tell us about wilwa? Look at the Nienna bandwagon on Day 2. wilwa started it, Lari seconded it. And Lari's been quite supportive of wilwa all the time (a connection which Kit spotted early, probably the reason she was killed). wilwa, on the other hand, seems to have taken great care not to mention Lari at all, as far as I can see - which would be clever, as it would have brought both of them under suspicion if they'd been too obviously connected. The case seems pretty clear to me, but go look for yourselves.
Anyway, let's lynch the known wolf before the probable one, so:
++Lariren Shadow
Good night.

[Craydon1]

A million thanks to Pitch for letting those of us that have a long day tomorrow have it easy tonight. Because I trust our seer's dreams, I will go with them.
++Lari.

[Hakon]

++Lari

I knew it was her. I looked over the votes today and I realized both Wilwa and Morsul voted for me at one point or another so I had a faint idea that the third wolf voted for me as well. I thought Lari. We caught two wolves today. YAY.

[Nerwen]

I was just re-reading... but I didn't get very far... too exasperated by Roa's latest (#411).

She summarises what everyone else said regarding Loslote yesterDay. Now, the first thing that strikes me is the degree to which she blows her own trumpet over not having suspected Loslote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I said she was probably innocent.

(...)

I do an analysis of Loslote, as promised, and find nothing suspicious.

(...)

I say that I don't believe Loslote is intentionally misrepresenting Brinn.

I'm just saying, how often do people summarise their own comments? Not very. Is there a point to her doing this, other than to say, "See? My hands are clean!"

And then there's this:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Nerwen says the [I]possibilities for wolf are Loslote, Roa, or Inzil

No, I didn't. I said this:

Originally Posted by Me

Anyway– leaving aside the gifted claimants and the known innocent, we have (from my point of view):

Inziladun
Loslote
Roa
Legate
Lairen Shadow
Brinn

So it's either Wolflote stumbling through her cubhood, or it's Roa Awolfe getting over confident, or it's Inzilawolf being a little too slick for his own good, or it's somebody else very sneaky indeed.

In other words, I was merely stating the obvious– "It's either one of the players who are getting attention, or it isn't".

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Nerwen double checks that Loslote is now lynched.

Now, I noted in my next-to-last post yesterDay that my connection had started playing up shortly before DL. At that point I had only just been able to get back on, and I wasn't sure what had happened.

The way Roa describes what I did is, to my mind, very much an example of the use of weasel-words. Can you read that line without getting the impression of Evil!Nerwen making sure her fiendish plot had succeeded, nyeh-heh-heh-heh-heh?

I haven't checked what she said other players said against what they actually did say, but just judging from what she said about me, she's doing some serious twisting there. No wonder she didn't see anything wrong with Lottie's analysis.

I still think this is zealotry rather than wolvery, but it's getting to me.

EDIT:X'd since Inzil.

[Roa_Aoife]

Back home from work. Really, Nerwen?

I summarized my own posts because I was summarizing every post that mentioned Loslote. Leaving my own out would have been suspicious as well, so I don't know what you expect.

As for twisting your words, no, I was merely summarizing to the best of my ability. You did suggest that Loslote could be a wolf. You did double check that Loslote had been lynched and I made no mention of your purpose behind this. You'll note in my conclusion on you, I didn't even mention it. What I saw was the same situation as Nienna- you went along with the suspicion until the end, when you decided to add Lari to the list.

Now, since the dreamer has declared Lari a wolf, and the last wolf is probably Wilwa, I obviously don't suspect you. But you can't possibly think I'm evil just because I suspect you.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh, and

++Lari

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

But you can't possibly think I'm evil just because I suspect you.

I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating.

Anyway–

++Lari.

[Inziladun]

++ Lari

[Roa_Aoife]

It seems toDay is shaping up to be rather uneventful. I wonder if we all vote quickly would McCaber end the Day early?

[Nerwen]

I agree Wilwa is probably the last wolf, but just in case she doesn't sprout fur when we lynch her, we may as well formulate our ideas on other people.

For instance, can we take Brinn to be a known innocent, based on Lari's slip?

EDIT:X'd with Roa; typos.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I agree Wilwa is probably the last wolf, but just in case she doesn't sprout fur when we lynch her, we may as well formulate our ideas on other people.

For instance, can we take Brinn to be a known innocent, based on Lari's slip?

Refresh my memory: which slip would that be?

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I agree Wilwa is probably the last wolf, but just in case she doesn't sprout fur when we lynch her, we may as well formulate our ideas on other people.

For instance, can we take Brinn to be a known innocent, based on Lari's slip?

EDIT:X'd with Roa; typos.

What slip?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating.

Ah well, get in line then. It starts behind Nogrod and extends quite a ways.

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It seems toDay is shaping up to be rather uneventful. I wonder if we all vote quickly would McCaber end the Day early?

I hope he does end the day early. Maybe he can shorten the night phase to be only 3 hours.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Refresh my memory: which slip would that be?

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

What slip?

Only one of a number of things I found suspicious in her last post yesterDay.

EDIT:X'd with Hakon.

[Roa_Aoife]

She says she thinks Brinn is innocent.

A. How is that a slip?

B. How would that exonerate Brinn?