Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Mithalwen]

Gah 'puter has just eaten my post. Still think Lal is best cobbler bet but given that I don't understand what is going on with Fea. Nerwen , Izzy and Shasta are creeping me out. Nerwn probably most. Izzy's vote for CoD could have been wolf on wolf gone bad.... played safe with Nogrod since .. and you can usually make a case for voting Nogrod I find. Though he is looking fairly innocent now by his voting.

Hmm thing that is Goodnight from me now.

[Lalwendë]

So you accept there could have been WoW voting going on?

[Mithalwen]

It happens I never said it doesn't. I contested only that my voting was not wolf on wolf which I knew to be a fact

But Izzy was swift to point out that she had voted CoD the next day which could have been making the best of a bad job. Or not.... really got to go, tired eyes.. drive..early start...

[Nogrod]

News for you: Boro is not a wolf.

I was just looking back a few things when I realised the following.

On Day1 the voting situation before Sally's vote was:

Sally 1 [wolf]
Boromir 2
Mac 1
Rikae 1 [ordo]
CoD 3 [wolf]
Brinn 2 [ordo]
Gwath 1 [ordo]

And Sally decided to vote for Boro! If Boro is a wolf it would mean that Sally would have raised her other mate to the pole-position alongside the other one just a few minutes before the deadline...


Another thing:

This one raised my eyebrows already yesterDay and helped me feel a bit better about voting for Sally. It's a reply to my half-joking posting about Fëa becoming the third cobbler-candidate with her "revelation".

Originally Posted by Sallywolf

Yeah. Let's leave cobblers for another day (or night, if the wolves decide to be silly like my last game) and work on wolves for now. Savvy?

The situation, as everyone remembers, was that many people were thinking about Lal as a cobbler and quite a few thought similarily on Boro. And I think there was something like that in the air as "let's lynch a cobbler if we have no idea about the wolves" - well at least I was getting into that mood. So is it that one of those "cobbler-candidates" is indeed her last packmate or was she just trying to save a presumed cobbler? Or was it just to assure others it being a good idea to lynch me?

At the time she wrote that post the voting was: Sally2, Nogrod3, Lalwendë2, Mith2, Boro1. So Lal had two votes and looking like one plausible candidate to be lynched (Boro 1 vote eg. it was possible he might go for the gallows as well) and Sally had just voted for me herself.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the voting against wolves kind of assured me about a few things. I'm not saying there couldn't have been WoW -votes but looking at the tightness of the race on Day1 I find it quite improbable there (and at least Sally actually tried to save her mate). On Day3 it would be quite suicidal from a wolf to help her/his last mate to go down however good it might look as playing alone against 9 innocents would be the least s/he would wish for (I have tried it once so I know what I'm talking about - I had no chance even if I think I played pretty well).

And looking at the votes on Day3 it seems also that every vote in a way put Sally into the lead which would be dangerous indeed (well, not Mac's vote but he had put CoD to a late lead on Day1 - and mine could be seen as just trying to save myself which is in a way also true).

So.

Voted CoD Day1

McCaber (first vote for CoD when voting was spreading wide)
Isabell (put him to the shared lead)
Macalaure (put CoD to the lead)
Mith (chose CoD over Boro – nailed it)

Voted Sally on Day3

Rikae (known innocent started it)
McCaber (brought Sally into a shared lead)
Nilp (brought Sally into a shared lead)
Nogrod (put Sally in the lead, ahead of himself)
Macalaure (confirmed Sally’s death)



So I'm tempted to say that now as we have only one wolf left I will leave

McCaber
Isabell
Macalaure
Mith
Nilp

in peace unless they do something that really raises my eyebrows.

Adding to the list

Boro

for reasons explained in my last post will leave me with four candidates for wolvery:

Shasta
Fëa
Lalwendë
Nerwen

I'm not promising to eat my hat or anything like that but I will be really surprised if the wolf is not one among the four listed there.

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Looking at the voting against wolves kind of assured me about a few things. I'm not saying there couldn't have been WoW -votes but looking at the tightness of the race on Day1 I find it quite improbable there (and at least Sally actually tried to save her mate). On Day3 it would be quite suicidal from a wolf to help her/his last mate to go down however good it might look

I can't rule out page 4 because the evidence is that strong there. No need to look for any kind of mad theories, it's there. All you have to see is that two were going down and one had to be chosen - it's just working out which player thought which other player was in which role.

However I cannot see any reason why, apart from desperation, a wolf would vote WoW, so for me, this rules out Mac and McCaber completely. Anyone else still needs looking at.

[Boromir88]

Lal, since you are without question the cobbler, I'm going to treat you like others treat me when I'm a known wolf. Have fun talking to yourself dear, keep yapping, if it so pleases you. I refuse to go another day bantering with you.

I suggest everyone else do the same.

[Boromir88]

Nerwen, you're going to have some answering to do...

I was having a serious think about voting for the de facto cobbler– that's what Lalwendë is, whatever her official role– just to get her out of the way– but I think I'll go with

++Boromir88

Not only is it another throw away vote from you (like Day 2's vote), but if you believed Lal was the cobbler, why would you think I'm a wolf? I've been after her for over 3 days. Sure the wolves and cobbler don't know eachother, but if you believed so strongly Lal is the cobbler than what's your justification for me being a wolf?

I'm going to have a good long look at Nogrod, sorry, while I agree with your list, and it looks right to me, you can't expect me to exactly find you the most trustworthy person in this situation.

[Isabellkya]

Briefly, I’d like to get this out of my system right away; since I’ve been simmering over it since yesterDay after work.

Originally Posted by #300

Isabell, McCaber, Rikae and Lalwendë are pretty consistent all the time. Now that might look good to a hasty player but in the end only the wolves have an easy time being consistent as they know what they are doing... ~Nog

Boro vote Day 1: Lal
Boro vote Day 2: Lal
Boro vote Day 3: Lal

So, first question. Why isn’t Boro on your list of consistency? When you made that post; he’d already voted for her two days in a row. Why leave him out?

Originally Posted by #328

Izzy, I've been after Lal since Day 1…. ~Boro

Fea vote Day 1: Boro
Fea vote Day 2: Boro

Second question. Why isn’t Fea on your list of consistency? She has been after Boro since Day 1.

Originally Posted by #300

Fëa's insistence on lynching Boro is either having fun with him with no better options around or a perfect wolf-hide. Last time I suspected her on somewhat similar grounds and we lynched her she was an ordo though, so I'm going to be a bit more careful this time with her as long as I'm along in this game. ~Nog

You mentioned it here, but seemed to pawn it off.

Is it just the ‘consistency’ aimed in your direction which you find suspicious, and take note of?
I think you are guilty of this ‘consistency’, which you seem to be paranoid of.

I think, the only reason I wouldn’t vote for you today - is because WolfSally put you in the lead, for two days in a row.

But toDay, it looks like you've got some of the paranoia out of you.


Edit. Fixed a tag.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If you believed Lal was the cobbler, why would you think I'm a wolf? I've been after her for over 3 days. Sure the wolves and cobbler don't know eachother, but if you believed so strongly Lal is the cobbler than what's your justification for me being a wolf?

I said de facto cobbler– meaning that she was causing confusion. I did not say I "felt strongly" she was a cobbler. Don't put words into my mouth, please.

Besides, just because I genuinely suspected her doesn't mean you couldn't have been a wolf feigning suspicion.

But that was yesterDay. Now that we know Sally was a wolf I guess that clears you of lupinity– I agree with Nogrod on that one (though he's come up with some pretty dodgy reasoning this game).

EDIT: X'd with Isabellkya

[McCaber]

So are we finally clear that Mac and Iare innocent? Good.

Now that we're all on the same page, I think I can afford to take it easy for a few hours and think it out for a while. 2 gifted and 8 other innocent versus 1 lone wolf - I like our odds.

And I figure that between the mob killings and the seer dreams we can kill/exonerate the five (or so) SPs (suspicious persons) remaining without much difficulty. I hope it doesn't come to that, though.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

My post didn't go through... I sent it through hours ago... maybe my internet acted up.

Now that it's 1 in the morning, I'm a bit tired and not inclined to re-type the whole thing. The gist: I still don't like Nogrod, but as Sally (really, dear? really?) was a wolf, it puts him in a more innocent light. I do like and agree with his list (even if I am on it, ).

Hopefully will post more on the morrow, depending on how early I wake up.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by McCaber

So are we finally clear that Mac and I are innocent?

Unless we're dealing with a wolf suicide squad.

*cues Lal's next theory*

And while we're on the subject of Lal...

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

I can't rule out page 4 because the evidence is that strong there. No need to look for any kind of mad theories, it's there. All you have to see is that two were going down and one had to be chosen - it's just working out which player thought which other player was in which role.

However I cannot see any reason why, apart from desperation, a wolf would vote WoW, so for me, this rules out Mac and McCaber completely. Anyone else still needs looking at.

This post is hurting my brain. Paragraph 2 appears to be a direct contradiction of paragraph 1.

What are you trying to say?

[Macalaure]

You know what makes me doubt the "Lal's the cobbler" theory? She still makes points (however contradictory they may be). Usually, if a cobbler has been identified correctly by a large number of people to the point that the cobbler's no longer listened to, the cobbler gives up on making points and turns to mere bothering instead.

I agree with pretty much all of Nogrod points above. I agree with Mith: Nerwen is creepy, and quite a lot. Rikae's thoughts still have to be summed up, so I'll go at that first.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sally was her suspicion number two (shared place with Nilp).

ahem!

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

This post is hurting my brain. Paragraph 2 appears to be a direct contradiction of paragraph 1.

What are you trying to say?

Simply that put into a situation where you must choose between members of a wolf pack, voting WoW may have to happen. However, as a long term strategy, it would be suicidal. Therefore I can't get on board with the idea that a wolf would vote for another wolf more than once unless in the most desperate of circumstances - something we only really had once, on day 1.

That's why McCaber and Mac just can't be wolves - they'd have voted WoW more than once and haven't shown the possibility of being wolves in desperate circumstances.

However if you look at Page 4 then we see every likelihood of WoW voting. There is panic, suspicious questions and statements, and a last minute bandwagon traffic jam. There are no alibis you could pull out to defend yourself against what's on that page.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Me Uchiha Madara, me have Mangekyou Sharingan (Kaleidoscope Copy Wheel Eye), me see Rikae, Nogrod, Brinniel, and Shasta and see them Ordos.

Any suggestions where you would like me to cast my eyes next?

I would like to ask the Ranger not to protect me this NIGHT. They won't dare kill me.

[Macalaure]

Rikae's positions are neatly summed up in #306, so I'll go along that list.

Wolvish are (apart from Sally, of course - Rikae deserves some kudos for picking her out correctly from the first day on!) McCaber, Nilp, and Izzy. McCaber now looks more than innocent, and I have a hard time seeing Nilp wolvish. Izzy might be worth a look, but my feeling speaks against her being in a pack with CaptainofDespair and Sally.
In her neutral category, she's also in the Lal-cobbler fraction, though a bit hesitating. Furthermore, there is she who I will not mention and Boro, who's much more innocent-looking now. Nerwen and Mith she is unsure of.
Nogrod, I, and Shasta are innocent to her. On Nogrod I agree, on Shasta I'll trust her for now (not that I would have found him suspicious before).

People who I think need to be inspected are Nerwen, Mith, and Izzy. Most likely the last wolf is in there.


edit: crossed with Nilp... oh!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

So, here's how it stands.

Innocent:
Nilpaurion Felagund
Nogrod
Shastanis Althreduin

Voted for a Wolf twice:
Macalaure
McCaber

Voted for a Wolf once:
Mithalwen
Isabellkya

Unknown:
Lalwendë
Nerwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
Boromir88

[Boromir88]

Innocent:
Nilpaurion Felagund
Nogrod
Shastanis Althreduin~Nilp

I would watch out for Nogrod, don't think he'd shy away from casting a "crucial" vote for a partner, even if there are other innocent options. The question is would a wolf-Nogrod have done it in the current situation? We still have both gifteds, and 8 innocent with 1 wolf.

He would have to be very bold, very confident, and slightly insane. Also, a if Nogrod was a wolf, he would probably know I would jump on him for any wolf-on-wolf vote. So, until I have a closer look at Nogrod (in a few hours) I'm going to say "don't know."

I said de facto cobbler– meaning that she was causing confusion. I did not say I "felt strongly" she was a cobbler. Don't put words into my mouth, please.~Nerwen

My mistake, Nerwen, by de facto I thought you were saying you reached the conclusion she was the cobbler.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I would watch out for Nogrod, don't think he'd shy away from casting a "crucial" vote for a partner, even if there are other innocent options. (Boro)

He is innocent. I have spoken.

I don't think I'll vote for you today, either, cos of Nogrod's 444. (Vzv, I take other people's idea far too often this game cos I went into it with a strategic mindset rather than the usual tactical mindset. I intended to win this game mathematically--which has never been done before, I think, without double/multiple lynching--, which makes me lament I lost two of my Sharingan's targets.)

Obviously I will be voting for one of the unknowns, unless the other chappies from the Wolf-voting groups do something *shakes head*.

Ah, well.

++Lalwendë

Might as well know who she really is.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would watch out for Nogrod, don't think he'd shy away from casting a "crucial" vote for a partner, even if there are other innocent options.

Agreed... but did you miss the post where Nilp says he's the Seer, and has dreamed Nogrod innocent?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I still so desperately want to know Boro's role. Now, please remember that I'm sleepy and about to go back to bed (classes canceled for a traditional school holiday brought on by other people's drunken revelry on the president's front lawn), so I don't have numbers or coherence:

Is it such a bad idea to kill him just to find out? Will we be setting ourselves back in a dangerous way? My thoughts were really that he was either the Seer or a Wolf (though cobbler wasn't a bad thought, once I remembered we have one), but I'm still uncomfortable with having him around. He splits too often between feeling fair and foul.

PS, Nilp, I heart you.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Hm, I think I'll look at Boro toNIGHT.

Heh, finally, I get home at a decent hour (8pm) instead of staying up at a computer shop 'til 1am wondering if:

1. OmniCon will kill me cos I tightrope too well with suspicion
   
   
2. I've said too much and Durelin gets to do a cool death scene the following DAY with me using my bankai and Amaterasu (but ending with my eyes getting plucked out.)

So, g'nite y'all. Much <3 (teehee!)

P.S. RANGER, I'm serious, guard someone else. Like Nog or Mac.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Me Uchiha Madara, me have Mangekyou Sharingan (Kaleidoscope Copy Wheel Eye), me see Rikae, Nogrod, Brinniel, and Shasta and see them Ordos.


I would like to ask the Ranger not to protect me this NIGHT. They won't dare kill me.

I knew!!!! That was the thought I referred to in my first post today but since I didn't do a Shasta style acrostic I can't prove it Was very glad to see you still alive .

So now Nerwen is pretty well my top suspect.

[Lalwendë]

I must vote early today because I have to go out and I don't know if I'll get a chance later.

Now, I'm being tempted to vote to lynch someone from one of these vomit-worthy love-ins. Go and get a room! Bleurgh. I prefer Boro's style, he's always the Simon Cowell of the game (though I hope he doesn't wear those nasty kex) and I can respect nastiness, because that's what it's all about! Plus it doesn't make me feel sick

Still, nowt will dissuade me from the solid evidence of Page 4. No point voting for Mith today simply because it will be a wasted vote as I can see the way things are going in the love-in. Luckily I have two candidates with overpowering evidence against them so I've still got someone worthwhile to vote for rather than feeling obliged to jump onto some poor soul's bandwagon that's been formed from a shadow and a thought. So I might go for my cobbler candidate.

Nogrod's case for his innocence is well thought out, but there is more convincing evidence on Page 4.

Sorry mate, but you knew it was coming.

++Boro

Hopefully I'll get to check in around deadline.

[Boromir88]

Agreed... but did you miss the post where Nilp says he's the Seer, and has dreamed Nogrod innocent?~Nerwen

Whoops...in that case I will take a look at our wolf-slaying efficianados McCaber and Mac. Perhaps they knew too much.

P.S. SEER, I'm serious, don't waste a dream on another ordo.

P.P.S.

I still so desperately want to know Boro's role.~Fea

It's odd how anytime our paths cross, it doesn't matter whether you believe I'm innocent, you just want to lynch me so you know for sure. To which I will say the feeling is mutual.

[Boromir88]

Lal, I prefer Simon Cowell's mini-me, Piers Morgan. Would it be an all-time WW record if I voted for Lal again?

[Nogrod]

Okay then... interesting indeed.

Boro's sudden insistence to go after me even if Nilp had kind of shadily revealed himself and given the information. So he wanted to try - until Nilp became more articulate.

And then this:

Originally Posted by Boro

P.S. SEER, I'm serious, don't waste a dream on another ordo.

So the seer should indeed do that? And waste the dream on you because you try to look suspicious by doing that?

Boro = the Cobbler.

He's no wolf. And here I'm going to argue against Lalwendë that Sally's vote which raised a fellow-wolf (Boro) alongside to the lead with her other fellow-wolf (CoD) just a few minutes before the deadline on Day1 is just too far-fetched - whatever "evidence" one manages to read from page 4.


Nilp: if - and when - you're the seer I'd suggest Nerwen for your dream. She could be the last wolf and if not she would be of great help to us as a known innocent.

[Boromir88]

Boro = the Cobbler.

Nogrod, I repeat...I am not the cobbler. Wasn't it I who pointed you specifically to Brinniel mentioning you and sally as her two possible wolves. Thus, the wolves killed Brin because they were afraid she was the seer? Wasn't it I who pointed out on Day 2, Sally's strange reactions to CoD's vote? How did I know? Because I've used that exact strategy successful as a wolf, and it was to sally's misfortune that I was in this village.

See Nogrod, instead of looking at the actual "evidence" you just assume that since I said "don't waste a dream on me" I must be the cobbler. Yet, you completely ignore Lalwende who is still harping about the "page 4" evidence, and that's all she's been going on about for over 2 days now. Nogrod, use your noggin.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Nogrod, use your noggin.

I'm trying, all the time...

I'm getting that cobblery from your performance this far but I'm ready to change my mind if you continue being that convincing (what you said was either true and noteworthy or a masterful deceit). I'm going to do some re-reading after I get my dinner out of the way. But anyway, I'm very much against lynching you (and also somewhat against the seer "wasting" his dream on you) as we are after the wolf here and I'm pretty much confident you're not a wolf for reasons already stated.

I'm still thinking our best bets for the wolf are from the group: Lal, Fëa & Nerwen, possibly Izzy or Mith but that would require a WoW... which is not generally improbable but in this game I wouldn't count on it too heavily.

[Boromir88]

I'm getting that cobblery from your performance this far but I'm ready to change my mind if you continue being that convincing~Nogrod

I admit to looking cobbler-ish, but I think that's the effect of my different playing style than from a usual Boro. I like variety, changing it up a bit, I get bored if I stay the same static Boro.

Enough talk about that, so to give Fea a clearer answer...I would love to see Lal lynched today, that I hope will clear my name from all the cobbler talk.

Alright, known Innocent...

Nilp
Shasta
Nogrod

That's a nice, healthy list, as if the the lone wolf wants to eliminate known innocents during the night, it will take him/her a couple days.

Who I have no reason to suspect/I feel good about.

Fea
Mith

I'm sorely tempted to call for Fea's lynching, just so I'm absolutely certain, but for now I'll keep her (and Mith) out of the equation.

That leaves -

Mac
McCaber
Izzy
Nerwen
Lalwende

I'm not doing this because I have any desire to lynch Mac or McCaber today, but somebody has to do it and not make the mistake of just assuming they are both innocent (like I did when I was the seer and Nogrod pulled a cover over my eyes) when we really don't know for certain. I will probably vote for Izzy, Nerwen, or Lal today, but I'm going to do a Mac-analysis and Mc-analysis to consider a possilble wolf-on-wolf vote.

[Boromir88]

Starting with the shorter one

McCaber

Day 1: He pretty much echoes the feelings of the village. He does say I look innocent, because he doesn't think a wolf would stir that much controversy in the beginning.

Brin seems a little off to me, as does the Captain. Gwath and Mac both look fine by me.

So, he notes CoD feels a little off. And in his other post for the day, he votes for CoD.

I have to go soon, so here's my semirandom vote:

++CaptainofDespair

for cryptic remarks and other general nonsense.

As others have noted, if there was a wolf-on-wolf vote, I think McCaber's looks to be the most likely. It's early enough, it would make a wolf look good, and there wasn't a strong reason (at that time) to believe CoD would be lynched.

Day 2:

Says Gwath looks innocent, and that he certainly talks a lot.

Says he doesn't know what to think about me.

Something possibly interesting:

On my "possibly, nay, probably a werewolf" list goes Nogrod, for an attempt to bandwagon away from a wolf, along with Sally.

Suspects Nogrod and Sally. So, McCaber picks up on CoD and sally, two known wolves...hmm

Yeah, I really don't like the way sally posted yesterDay, what with the "suspicion" of the Captain in quite a lot of posts but her vote trying to lead away from his death. (Old news, I know, but I just woke up. Give me a break.)

Agrees with the reasoning against sally, that her suspect and then defense of CoD looks strange. Later in the post, he said between Gwath and Nogrod, he would rather vote the latter, but believes both of them are innocent just looking for wolves in the wrong places.

Day 2, votes for sally

2 wolves in 2 days. Impressive instincts. Not unlikely, but as Mith would always caution me when we were both wolves, don't make it look like you're completely certain about everything. Plus with the focus on Nogrod and Gwath, perhaps McCaber felt safe about voting for wolf-partner sally, and again it would make him look good.

As another interesting observation, on Day 2 Rikae votes for McCaber.

Day 3:

I still think that the Day 1 voting record is the best to find a wolf. I'm going to take a closer look at those who tried to save the Captain at the last minutes. I know that includes sally, but I'm not sure who else.

Again mentions sally for her attempt to save CoD.

So I'm still convinced that sally is a wolf, but the only other late distracters were Nogrod for Gwath and Boro for Lal. And I'm pretty sure both of them are innocent.

If only sally gave me more to analyze. And I'm still not sure why Lal and Rikae have harped on me as a suspect. I just don't really get their arguments.

Continues to go after sally, if only she "gave me more to analyze." That looks strange, are you trying to find a reason to get out of voting for the wolf sally?

In post 360 he says Nogrod and I are probably innocent. Nerwen, Sally, or Rikae are probably wolves, and Lal is the cobbler.

remarks about Fea's seer revelation:

For some reason I am so tempted to contradict you, but it would serve no purpose. Ah well.

Either Fea is a wolf, or the last wolf didn't believe Fea's seer revelation (or maybe the last wolf thought Fea would get the ranger protection). Anyway, McCaber makes the point that he doesn't really believe Fea.

umm...

++sally

nothing if not consistent.

Ends up being the 2nd vote for sally (puts her in the early lead). Still, a rather safe, early vote. It would make McCaber look good, if sally is lynched, but with all the stir between myself, Mith, and Lal, maybe he thought sally was safe.

And this just doesn't sit right with me, today (from post 451)

So are we finally clear that Mac and Iare innocent? Good.

McCaber comes out and attaches himself to Mac. Both he and Mac voted for wolves twice (McCaber voted for sally two days in a row). But this just seems like he's trying to push the fact that he and Mac are finally "proven" innocent, when really neither of them are.

I'm not liking the look of McCaber, he could have extremely good instincts in this game, but this just looks like he's too certain about everything. Not just who the wolves are but who he thinks are innocent. He felt I was "likely" innocent, he pointed out Gwath and Nogrod going after eachother, but felt both were two innocents looking for wolves in the wrong place.

Now, he comes out and forces the opinion that he's a "known" innocent (and Mac in the process). He's not a known innocent, and I don't like the look of it. I don't know what the wolf strategy was, but maybe with McCaber's style of being more quiet and reserved, plus a good voting record (3 wolves, 3 votes!) this was a strategy to make McCaber look as innocent as possible, and then he could slip into the background.

[Macalaure]

A look at N'Rwen:

Day1: She makes one post pointing into multiple directions and adds some inconclusive things on Gwath. Not her fault she couldn't come back. The one post could come from both baddie and goodie, you can't tell.

Day2: She copies all statements about the Captain into one post. In conclusion, she says Sally is odd (but relativates it, hmm...) and suspects Boro. She goes after Lal a bit and defends Brinn. She doesn't think good of Nogrod and Gwath and takes up a point of mine against Boro and votes him in the end. Apart from the shadiness around Sally, I'm fine with all this, except that she could have tried harder to get support for Boro, which had untapped potential.

Day3: Defends her vote for Boro. Questions the Gwath-voters (which is a neat thing to do if she knew there were no wolves to find in there). #344 doesn't sit right with me at all: She seconds a thing Boro (who later received her vote!) said and makes me, and everyone, give opinions on Lal. Why? Why if you didn't seriously intend to vote for her yourself? This move would make sense if you were trying to see how much support for Lal there was, but first teaming up with Boro and then voting him looks simply wolvish. Of course, if she is a fellow of Sally, why didn't she vote for Lal to save her? Maybe she considered Sally to be a goner and didn't want to get involved in a competing bandwaggon for Lal or Nogrod.

Day4: Defends her vote for Boro (again) and agrees with Nogrod on Boro's innocence now.


I admit that I looked at her in the worst possible light now. But even in a more positive light, pretty this isn't.

[Boromir88]

Triple-posting, I won't have time to look at Mac today, but with the wolves being wrong about Brin (being the seer). I'm going to look into Rikae's post to see if maybe the wolves thought she was the seer (as I made note of Rikae's vote for McCaber on Day 2).

Edit: Mac ruined my first ever attempt at a triple post.

[Nogrod]

Just first impressions before actually looking back to at least some of these three.

Fëa has played her own game bantering with Boro and voting for him the two first Days at least looking like just making it in fun. Changed her vote to Mith yesterDay. Not too involved.

Lal goes around with first the insistence of she being the major target of the wolves and then sticks to her "Page 4" -theory on Mith and Boro. I think I can see the idea she's going after but it seems like a "storm in a glass of water" as we say in Finland. Has voted differently every Day (Brinn, McCaber and Mith).

Nerwen has been very cool and somewhat fallen under the radars of most. Didn't vote on Day1 and has then cast two pretty much throw-away votes for Boro (on Day2 it was a conmplete waste, on Day3 one could see a chance of a late Boro-waggon starting...). Somehow she looks the most suspicious to me but I will have to look closer before making any stronger judgements.


Btw. I'd like to see Shasta to contribute as even if you are not any more infallible than we others are, it would be nice to hear an opinion of which we could believe it was made with no malice behind it. Now you have a chance to raise up to your reputation as the psychic! (yeah, you got it wrong this far with me but now you can use your talent as that disrupting veil has been taken away from your eyes)

Also I'd appreciate thoughts by Macalaure and McCaber whom I tend to trust now.

And well anyone!

I'm going to look at Nerwen and if time gives in also the two others topping my list for now.


EDIT: X'd with Boro x2 & Mac - nice to see you are up to this as well. I need to read your points first and then decide in what way to pursue the things as it seems we are doing a lot of same things...

[Isabellkya]

Here is where my head is at, at the moment.

"known" innocent:
Nog
Shasta
Nilp

Looks pretty innocent:
Mac
McCaber

Cobblery:
Boro
Lal
Fea


undecided:
Nerwen
Mith


So my vote will go to one accused of Cobblery, or I don't have a read on.

X'ed with Nog, Boro, Mac.

[Boromir88]

Rikae

Day 1 votes sally.
Day 2 votes McCaber.
Day 3 goes back to sally.

Can't speak for the others (two of whom are high on my own suspicion list at the moment), but it's been easy for me to be consistent because no one seems to agree with me.

Could this be taken by the last wolf that Rikae is a seer trying to get people to listen to her?

I find Rikae's 306 post interesting, she puts herself on the naughty list:

Rikae - Naughty, as always, but not wolfishly or cobblerishly so (unless my right hand doesn't know what my left is doing ).

Could that be taken as a hint that Rikae was someone gifted? She's on the naughty list, but not wolf nor cobbler?

Notes she doesn't like Izzy's way of poking around.

Yep, I don't like the way Izzy hangs around the fringes of things, occasionally "poking" at someone as if in an attempt to see if she can get suspicions flowing that way.
That's one thing that was bugging me

And next post she votes for sally.

Izzy, McCaber, and sally make it on Rikae's wolf list. Rikae votes sally, sally ends up being a wolf. Did either Izzy or McCaber believe Rikae was then the seer?

I don't know if there's enough evidence to drum up against McCaber, but I have to go soon and I got a feeling either him or Izzy is the last wolf. Taking into account I don't like McCaber certainty (or his entire post 451)

And I figure that between the mob killings and the seer dreams we can kill/exonerate the five (or so) SPs (suspicious persons) remaining without much difficulty. I hope it doesn't come to that, though.

Seems a bit hasty to go after the 5 remaining "suspicious people," obviously you're off that list McCaber? I think it is McCaber. And this is so rough, because now is as good of a chance as any to finally get Lal out of the picture....

++McCaber

[Boromir88]

Oh and before I go, if anyone is still doubting my sincerity that I am not the cobbler. Why would I drum up a case against someone who is presumed innocent by everyone (McCaber) when I could try to steer people towards easier targets?

I seriously think McCaber's the last wolf, and it's been attempted to clear his name, slip under the radar. The only person who could counter that would be the seer. Rikae found McCaber and sally suspicious. Rikae ends up dead.

If you don't want to go for McCaber today, Nilp, I say check him out.

edit: bolding the names

[Nogrod]

That was a good one Boro! And now with no smilies added to take a distance from the proposition.

I had not bothered to look back at McCaber as he has felt pretty good lately and his voting record is neat - but I felt quite bad of him the first Days. Now you seem to stir those feelings back.

It really seems looking back at the things that he has been a bit too right - and I can see if you will be upset by this claim if you happen to be an innocent who just got it so right this time McCaber! But that's really a performance a bit too good to be true!

Anyway... I'm not sure I'd wish to lynch him toDay. I mean even if the case looks nice there are probably stronger reasons not to believe it (would McCaber want to be left alone against 10 villagers with seer & ranger around?). But it is good the points on McCaber were made for if he is indeed the wolf he can't now ride with the free ticket of extra-credibility anymore in the end did things go that far...

EDIT: X'd with Boro's latest posts...

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Lal, I prefer Simon Cowell's mini-me, Piers Morgan.

He might have better taste in trousers, but he's nowhere near evil enough to match your style

Originally Posted by Nogrod the Nog

He's no wolf. And here I'm going to argue against Lalwendë that Sally's vote which raised a fellow-wolf (Boro) alongside to the lead with her other fellow-wolf (CoD) just a few minutes before the deadline on Day1 is just too far-fetched - whatever "evidence" one manages to read from page 4.

I agree and Page 4 corroborates this. I think he's the shoemaker, and racing off like Michael Schumacher with it. Sally wouldn't have had a clue who the cobbler was, but I think she thought it was me yesterday because she got reight mardy with me when she was panicking yesterday.

Got to say again, you can be almost certain that the only almost certain innocents are Mac and McCaber due to their voting. Plus no really shady behaviour.

Nobody else is really a safe bet. An OK one maybe. But not evens. Despite trying to be pukey