Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[Boromir88]

Where's Boro? I think it'd be good if our known innocent (or assumed known innocent, whatever) could contribute a bit more before he dies...

Sorry Thinlo, Mon-Thur. aren't my good days (I mentioned it the last village). I work from 6 am til 5, and just got back and have been reading through the thread.

With that I will vote for:

++Mithalwen

Evil little trickster.

Sorry Volo, I can't guard myself but maybe I can kill a wolf in the process. I have a decent idea of whom is a wolf, it's a shot. But if I don't have the guts to 'pull the trigger' I might guard someone else in order to try and stop a kill from happening.

I apologize that I couldn't participate more today.

[The Sixth Wizard]

I was away almost an hour, and only three posts.

Welcome to my world.

Nice job Mith, for revealing just because you were bored. Saves me a lot of reading.

++Mithalwen

"'E's already got one?"

"Yes, it's vera nice."

"Well can we come up and have a look?"

[Nogrod]

My father got to bed at last...

Okay, a few ideas still to share before the Day ends.

I have thought Volo a bit odd all the game. I'm not sure if that is in any way exceptional. But his eagerness to jump on lynching me looks pretty bad indeed. I mean one time he finds me most innocent and then in a minute he's ready to lynch me if there seems to be enough others to share that view. I'd take a really close look on him toMorrow as that looks to me pretty wolvish way to act.

Morm and Sixth have posted relatively little and if someone could be said to be a free-rider here I would look at those two.

Gil is another matter then... but I'm afraid we will need him for numbers.

Lommy and Aganzir I see no problem with them but then should that be the problem?

Boro: if you have a decent idea I say you go for it. If there are a lot of wolves around it might just hit - and in a case of us having more than one wolf around we'd sorely need the additional wolf-kills.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Sorry Volo, I can't guard myself but maybe I can kill a wolf in the process. I have a decent idea of whom is a wolf, it's a shot. But if I don't have the guts to 'pull the trigger' I might guard someone else in order to try and stop a kill from happening.

Well, coming all the way out of the world of dreams, I suggest you try the kill. After all a kill per Night is worth more than a save per Night, if there are indeed two Wolf kills, and if not, you will probably be the target. :/

[Thinlómien]

I guess I will be pretty much suspecting everyone toMorrow... That is a decision: I have to bring myself to suspect someone at least somewhat seriously.

Anyway, just in case I'm not here to say this toMorrow, please do the same and suspect everyone, (especially morm and Sixth ). Oh, and suspect everybody that slip under your radar too...

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, we're done here. Step away from the thread.

I am sure that you will all be awaiting the outcome of toDay's vote with eager anticipation. So, without further ado ...

... I'll go away and write it.

[The Saucepan Man]

Following the confession of the anarcho-syndicalism commune’s temporary executive officer, it did not take long for the delegates to decide who should be put to death this Day. It would have been quicker, but the delegate of INSTRAW demanded that the confession be transcribed, signed and sealed in triplicate by Mithalwen, ratified by a majority resolution of the general assembly and then witnessed by each delegate present. Five hours later, the documentation was finally complete and the dwindling group of delegates turned to confront Mithalwen.

“Your deluding yourselves if you think this is democracy,” said Mithalwen, as fur began to spread over her body. “What gives any of you the right to deal out death in judgement?”

“But Radagast told us this is what we had to do,” answered mormegil.

“Look, you can’t go round killing people, just because some dodgy geriatric image told you to,” replied Mithalwen, sprouting a fine set of whiskers.

“But you confessed,” pointed out Boromir88.

“No I didn’t,” said Mithalwen, her ears lengthening.

“Ooh, you liar, yes you did!” shrieked Nogrod. “She’s a Wolf! Burn her!”

“But my confession is riddled with procedural irregularities,” explained Mithalwen, dropping to all fours. “For a start, my tenure as executive officer expired earlier toDay and so I lacked authority to confess. Ratification will require a two-thirds majority of every man, woman and child in my commune.”

“Um … perhaps we could send some kind of a messenger to obtain it,” suggested Thinlómien.

“Rubbish!” declared Volo. “I may be from as far as it gets, but even I know that she made that confession in her capacity as a Werewolf, not as temporary executive officer of her commune.”

“He’s got a point,” observed mormegil.

“Aye, and so have I,” added Aganzir, hefting her axe.

“OK then,” said Mithalwen defiantly, as cruel red claws extended from her fingers and toes. “You can’t kill me because that would constitute persecution of an ethnic minority. It would be oppression by the majority.”

“You’re not an ethnic minority! You’re an evil, vicious Werewolf, with nasty, big, pointy teeth,” said The Sixth Wizard, bringing his fingers to his mouth to illustate the point.

“That’s as maybe,” replied Mithalwen, corroborating his observation by baring her nasty, big, pointy teeth. “But I’m still in the minority. And anyway, I’m a member of an endangered species.”

“In that case,” said Thinlómien, “perhaps you would care to show us your protected species order.”

“Shan’t” growled Mithalwen, readying to pounce.

“Oh, I’ve had enough of this,” muttered Volo. “Let’s just kill her.”

“Infamy! Infamy” They’ve all got it in fer me,” howled Mithalwen, as she sprang forwards to meet the mob in mortal combat. But they were prepared and set upon her with intent to dismember the honourable member for the anarcho-syndicalism commune.

“Help! Help! I’m being repressed,” cried Mithalwen, moments before her Wolfish head was forcefully liberated from her body.

"Ecky-ecky-ecky-ecky-pikang-zoop-boing-goodem-zoo-owli-zhiv!" it shrieked, as it flew through the air.

“What an eccentric performance,” observed Boromir88.

“…” agreed Gil-Galad.

The dead:

The Saucepan Man - Slaughtered and boiled up in a spicy ghoulash on Night zero.
xyzzy - Got bored of the role-based banter and hung himself quietly on Day 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Meneltarmacil - Fatally wounded in sooth he was and crawled awaye to find ye deathe in ye woodes on Nighte 1 (Werewolfe)
Rune Son of Bjarne - Hunted and added to his own trophy collection on Night 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Durelin - Spied on things which should not be seen and got hung for it on Night 1 (Thief)
Kath - Burned at the stake and spurned by her Lord on Day 2 (Priestess of Sauron)
Rikae - Tickled mercilessly and died with a smile on her face on Night 2 (Oridnary Innocent)
Legate of Amon Lanc - Underwent radical optical surgery and lost his life and his foresight on Night 2 (Druid)
Isabellkya - Mometarily caught off guard by a darting fox and set upon by the angry mob on Day 3 (Werewolf)
Shastanis Althreduin - Had the life squeezed from his Half human, half equine form on Night 3 (Oridnary Innocent)
the guy who be short - Consumed and reduced to nothing but bare bones on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent)
Feanor of the Peredhil - Brutally attacked yet lived long enough to write her bloody epitaph on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent).
Mithalwen - Went down fighting in a dubious pastiche of British classic comedy and was summarily dismembered by a unanimous motion of the general assembly on Day 4 (Werewolf).

The living:

Mormegil
Aganzir - the Dwarf delegate of a Woodsmen village
Gil-Galad
Volo - the very hairy delegate from as far as it gets
Nogrod - the moody delegate from the Witch-burners' village who is ready and willing to form a theory to suit his feelings whatever the facts ...
Boromir88 - the filibuster delegate from Laketown, whose geography is not that good
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien - the Delegate of INSTRAW

That’s Day 4 done. Night 4 beckons for those that have things to do.

[The Saucepan Man]

The delegates awoke on Day 5 to find that there had been only one death overnight. There in the village square lay a great white Wolf with red claws and sky blue eyes, battered, bruised and bloody. She had already drawn her last breath and as the remaining delegates watched, she transformed back into human form.

Aganzir, the dwarf delegate from a Woodsmen village had been a Werewolf!

The dead:

The Saucepan Man - Slaughtered and boiled up in a spicy ghoulash on Night zero.
xyzzy - Got bored of the role-based banter and hung himself quietly on Day 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Meneltarmacil - Fatally wounded in sooth he was and crawled awaye to find ye deathe in ye woodes on Nighte 1 (Werewolfe)
Rune Son of Bjarne - Hunted and added to his own trophy collection on Night 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Durelin - Spied on things which should not be seen and got hung for it on Night 1 (Thief)
Kath - Burned at the stake and spurned by her Lord on Day 2 (Priestess of Sauron)
Rikae - Tickled mercilessly and died with a smile on her face on Night 2 (Oridnary Innocent)
Legate of Amon Lanc - Underwent radical optical surgery and lost his life and his foresight on Night 2 (Druid)
Isabellkya - Mometarily caught off guard by a darting fox and set upon by the angry mob on Day 3 (Werewolf)
Shastanis Althreduin - Had the life squeezed from his Half human, half equine form on Night 3 (Oridnary Innocent)
the guy who be short - Consumed and reduced to nothing but bare bones on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent)
Feanor of the Peredhil - Brutally attacked yet lived long enough to write her bloody epitaph on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent).
Mithalwen - Went down fighting in a dubious pastiche of British classic comedy and was summarily dismembered by a unanimous motion of the general assembly on Day 4 (Werewolf).
Aganzir - Battered, bruised and bloodied and left to die on Night 4 (Werewolf)

The living:

Mormegil
Gil-Galad
Volo - the very hairy delegate from as far as it gets
Nogrod - the moody delegate from the Witch-burners' village who is ready and willing to form a theory to suit his feelings whatever the facts ...
Boromir88 - the filibuster delegate from Laketown, whose geography is not that good
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien - the Delegate of INSTRAW

Day 5 has started. Do your mooting thing.

[Thinlómien]

Just one person dead and she was a wolf....

There is just one way I can interpret this. There are no wolves left, that's why there was no other kill last Night.

There is a bad/independent bear, not a good one, since even though a wolf died the game's not over.

Boromir, it was clever of you to claim to be half a ranger and on the good people's side. I'm sorry to say that it works no more.

Unless someone presents me with any even slightly as credible a theory, I will not consider voting anyone else but Boro toDay.

[The Sixth Wizard]

Thy shame is seen Boromir.

Does this mean that the game will be over after Boro is dead?

[Boromir88]

Thinlomien, I'm sorry you are completely wrong.

I did lie yesterday, but my purpose for revealing worked perfectly. See I didn't tell the complete truth, and trust me it worked out only to the village benefit, it would be best if you put your crazy talk to rest.

I had another power and that was the ability to protect myself. If the wolves came after me, I could protect myself and kill one of my attackers while still surviving. I also lied as I did not guard Morm on Night 2, but I protected myself then. I was trying to make it obvious that I killed Menel to get the wolves after me so I could take down another one. That didn't work. So, after a failed kill I decided I would reveal my identity to get the wolves to come after me. Yet, not be completely truthful and let them in on my other ability to protect myself, so instead of taking a chance and killing one, I wanted them to attack me at night. This time my trap worked brilliantly.

So, like I said sit down and go focus on lynching someone else.

[Nogrod]

I would be intertested to see what Boro has as his version of the matters. I mean there's a point in Lommy's interpretation of the Night's events... so why only one kill?

We have killed a host of wolves already: Menel, Isabellkya, Mith, Aganzir... and the baddie priestess Kath. There can't be an endless number of baddies around and as the kills suddenly went down to just one...

But I think we'd do well to construct this then.

Theory1)
So Mith and Isabellkya were a team and Mith tried to avoid
discussing her mate when she had made a fumble saving Menel who later turned out to be a wolf? It's no wonder Mith chose this issue of Menel-lynch as one she went after me as it was close to her heart.

Then it must be that Menel and Aganzir formed the other pair. Nicely played I say as at least at this moment I can't recall any exchanges between the two (and it's too late for me to go skimming through the whole thread right now).

Theory2)
Or then Isabell was in cahoots with Menel and actually tried to save her mate and was lynched for it.

Again, a nice play from Mith and Aganzir as I can't at the moment recall any open pointing at each other from either of them. And thinking of Mith she might have tried to duck the issue of a possible rivalling wolf (Isabell) just because she believes in fair play. That might also explain part of her frustration yesterDay...

Either way, these both theories look believable to me at least now even though I might say the first one is more believable..

So let's go a bit backwards then...

Last Night
dead: Aganzir
(remaining baddie: Boro?)

The Night before (Night3)
dead: Shasta, tgwbs, Fea
(remaining baddies: Mith-wolf, Aganzir-wolf, Boro-bear?)

Looks sensible to me without better theories to come forwards...

And earlier...

Night2
dead: Rikae, Legate (seer)
(baddies: Isabell & Mith - Aganzir - and Boro didn't he kill then?)

Night1
dead: Menel, Rune, Durelin (thief)
(baddies: Isabell & Mith - Menel & Aganzir - Boro)

Now there were only two kills on Night two. Boro said he involuntarily guarded morm that Night. I think that is one of the weak links in his story. Now why on earth this choice? (No offence morm but if you're earnest why would someone had picked you up as the one definitively innocent among the whole crowd?) Maybe he's a kind of baddie who can only kill every other Night? That would settle it - and not make the baddies too overwhelming in the first place. And looking at his spotting-capabilities this Night I would say he's a seer every other Night...

Or whatever.

Just waiting for a better explanation to come forwards.

EDIT: X'd with Sixth & Boro

[Boromir88]

Maybe he's a kind of baddie who can only kill every other Night? That would settle it - and not make the baddies too overwhelming in the first place. And looking at his spotting-capabilities this Night I would say he's a seer every other Night...~Nogrod

No seering ability. And I can kill as many nights in a row as I wish. I can't protect myself two straight nights and I can't guard the same person for two straight nights.

If you want something better than a 'theory' and that is the facts. I am a Bear with the powers of guarding somebody, protecting myself from attack, or killing someone. No seer, no thief, nothing else. Thats it. I win along with the village whether I'm dead or alive, so I could really care less if you lynch me today, but you won't win by doing it that I promise.

[Thinlómien]

Well, that sure provoked some reactions, like I wished.

Anyway, I think my theory makes sense. It might not be the truth, but it's the only sensible alternative I can come up with. There's just one weak link: why was there no wolf kill last Night? The answer is easy. Agan attacked Boro, but the real ranger (not some bluffing bear) fell for Boro's lies and protected him.

Boro, I'm sorry to say, but you fail to convince me. Your manner is not that of what you claim to be. It's that of a baddie's who is in a trap. (Your "calmness" feels wrong and you saying "it worked perfectly" just sounds too bad.) Secondly, your claim is unbelievable. What is that, a hunter+assasin that cannot die in the hands of wolves? Sounds a bit too invincible for any sensible game. (Even though, I'm not sure oif this is a sensible game but... )

Nogrod, there's a problem with your theory #2. According to my logic it can't be true, for if Menel and Isabell were one team, why would there have been three kills after they both had died...?

edit: xed with Boro

[Thinlómien]

So an invincible assassin+hunter+ranger? Sounds even more unbelievable...

[Thinlómien]

Boro, if you're on our side, why isn't this game over already?

[Boromir88]

Thinlo you want more? I was visited by a white deer sent by Radagast, how much of this do you suppose I'm just making up and pulling out of my arse? No I'm not calm, I'm irritated because you really have no clue.

Anyway, I'm done, I don't care if you kill me anymore I've done my duty...if you want anymore of my advice. After I'm lynched and you realize you still haven't won, lynch Thinlo, she seems all to desperate now and making a last ditch effort, after the attack failed.

As I propose there is one more wolf:

Perhaps the others will take out Boromir (thanks for your help in innocent killing my friend!)? Would be a pity to double up.~Mith

After Mith there was still more than one wolf. Aganzir and who else? And perhaps there was only one kill because the majority of the wolves had been killed?

[Boromir88]

What is that, a hunter+assasin that cannot die in the hands of wolves?~Thinlo

Umm...if the wolves killed me a night I did not protect myself, I would be dead...so that statement is flat out false.

And since this grand theory you come up with must be the only answer. I am going to ask you to take back and consider this. I mean Nogrod and The Sixth have had no real problems with quickly jumping to conclusions. However you are so certain this is the only answer that I am the sole bad guy therefor you kill me the village wins.

If I am this 'bad guy' why in the heck would I reveal yesterday. No one was suspecting me, everyone was thinking I was innocent. Why in the heck would I spend my time killing the wolves when they were also doing my job if I was this bad lone bear? Why would I bait the wolves into coming and attacking me at night? There were still 9 people in this village, and barely anyone was suspecting me. Plus there were multiple kills a night. If I am this lone baddie what do I have to gain from revealing myself (when I was seen as innocent) and I am baiting the wolves to come and attack me at night?

[Nogrod]

It's funny Boro that you have always been the one to tell that if it walks like one and talks like one then it is one... and now the parts seem to have changed.

I mean it's quite sensible to believe that you're an intelligent baddie able to make some drastic moves and we should make our deductions. Just look at the claims you have made and the different twists of rules and balance of the game they need to presume are true. So there would have been at least six baddies aided by a seer-baddie or something (7 baddies from 20 so more than 1/3) facing only a seer and the chivalric invincible assassin/hunter/ranger/superman-Boro!

Believable? I mean use your own standards this time as well...

And to add: quoting a known wolf isn't the most trustworthy of sources... so everything Mith said yesterDay after she revealed must be read with a lots of caution. I wouldn't back any claim on them. Now how is it that you're doing it? An innocent would be very wary of using that kind of points to steer her/his thoughts as they most probably mislead in a way or another.

Originally Posted by Boro

And perhaps there was only one kill because the majority of the wolves had been killed?

Isn't this just what Lommy (and I) have been telling you. That the wolves have passed out, they're dead, extinguished, ex-wolves, gone to meet their maker... not just resting as you wish to make us believe.

But good to have you around to discuss this. I think I have a much more clearer picture about the possibilities now after you have defended yourself. I'll be back a bit later toDay

PS. Yes, everyone can say they were visited by the pink Beavers sent by Radagast... so please. I think that one argument makes you look more bad than the last Night's happenings as such... If you were true indeed you would not have used such a point but if you were a baddie so near victory you might slip a bit just to gain your goal?

EDIT: X'd with Boro's last one

[Boromir88]

if I cant convince anyone...lynch me I've done my job you won't win. I hope any innocent will appreciate what I've done afterwards. I'm done, this is only going to give me a headache

++Boromir88

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I am this 'bad guy' why in the heck would I reveal yesterday. No one was suspecting me, everyone was thinking I was innocent.

Just because of that! I know you're an intelligent player - a really good one. I know it.

Now what would have happened if people would have come to think: "now this Boro-man no one has suspected but he still lives, how come he's not dead?"

I think it has been only good to be under some suspicion as that kind of makes you sleep safer the Nights. But you had not that luxury of being suspected - so you had to figure out something to explain why you're not killed yet? It's perfectly sensible that the wolves had better killings to make - or then they knew your identity as their aid (which I do doubt) but anyhow being alive with no suspicions makes one loudmouith look very suspicious and thence I can see why you would take the gamble. And after all the other baddies are gone you're running free then?

And I think your timing was perfect indeed. Early enough to not let anyone else to start this reveal-fake -stuff but late enough to not seem too rushed with it. I bet you have thought this a lot during the last one or two days...

---
I just saw your vote... I'm not sure what to make of it. I wouldn't believe you're a bad loser so is it a trick of some sort? I wouldn't put that past you either. But it's quite early to make such acts as well - or just the right time indeed? A bit too dramatic then to be innocent? What else would make you look innocent if you think the points made are just pinning your treachery down?

I'm not saying I will will follow your vote but if nothing better comes about later toDay then I might join your vote.

Good night.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If I am this 'bad guy' why in the heck would I reveal yesterday. No one was suspecting me, everyone was thinking I was innocent. Why in the heck would I spend my time killing the wolves when they were also doing my job if I was this bad lone bear? Why would I bait the wolves into coming and attacking me at night? There were still 9 people in this village, and barely anyone was suspecting me. Plus there were multiple kills a night. If I am this lone baddie what do I have to gain from revealing myself (when I was seen as innocent) and I am baiting the wolves to come and attack me at night?

Okay. I rethought this and thought it good to make this last point today (not toDay). Now this seems like a fair point but it all depends on the mechanics of this game.

So are there any wolves to attack you anymore or is this just a show-off?

A lone baddie might do pretty smartly to "reveal" himself as the gifted helper of the innocents. That would make him less prone to be lynched during the Days coming forwards when people start to frenzy over each other: "why's the game not ended? There's a wolf still around! Who is it? Let's lynch anyone, but not our gifted helper". That's what the people would say. I know I would be drawn to say so myself... if I actually believed in Boro's claim.

My vote is still pending but I need to have a look at the others tomorrow as I wake up (not toMorrow). I must say I agree with most of Lommy's points and am not easily driven to vote her toDay (if she's a some kind of a baddie she almost deserves the win then if she makes it). Of others I have no good picture at the moment as Boro has taken all my energy thus far - and I know that can be lethal to concentrate to only one person.

So I try to have a wider look as I wake up, but we (myself and Lommy) will have limitations in our participation (look at the admin thread).

[Boromir88]

I thank you for keeping an open-mind Nogrod. Now seeing someone actually post with a bit of thought and sanity I wish I didn't vote for myself. That came out of frustration, as I am extremely frustrated with all of this. I don't care if I am lynched, you'll all have to live with killing one of you gifteds that has been sent here by Radagast.

I won't lose hope just yet though...so here is all I have to offer.

Now, for some reason Thinlomien doubts all my powers of guarding, protecting myself, and killing. Obviously I can kill people, and I haven't guarded someone yet, but I can. Now the biggest doubt seems to come with protecting myself.

If anyone doubts my ability to protect myself why am I not dead and why is there no wolf kill? The only kill last night was mine. If I chose the kill option, the way any village works is the wolves still get their kill choice for the night as well. Well there is only one kill. As one of my powers was defined, I can protect myself from my attackers. Meaning if someone comes and attacks me and I chose to protect myself that night, I would kill one of my attackers and still be alive. However I am too honourable a person to protect myself 2 nights in a row. Again, if anyone is saying that I can't protect myself and I'm making all of this up, why was there no wolf kill then? Why was the only kill caused by me? I'll tell you why. Because the wolves chose to kill me, but I protected myself, and a wolf died. Exactly as I hoped would happen.

So, here has been my Day-to-day thoughts of how to handle this multi-powered role.

Night 1, suspicious of Menel's wolvery all day, he wasn't lynched so I killed him. Going into the next day I wanted to hint about my role in killing Menel so the wolves would come after me the next night and I could protect myself and kill another one.

Night 2, I said yesterday I guarded Mormegil...that was a flat out lie (which I will explain why later). That night I protected myself as I hoped the wolves would come after me.

Night 3, killed Shasta because I found the vote to be quite wolvish.

So, going into the day with all these kills happening at night, I wanted to set a trap. I would reveal my role, and 2 of my powers (Ranger and Assassin), yet keep my 3rd power secret (which means I had to come up with a lie of what I did for Night 2); knowing that if the village accepted my known innocence the wolves would surely come after me during Night 4 and therefor I can protect myself. Since it was too risky to make a kill choice, I wanted the wolves to attack me. Like I said, this time my trap worked.

I honestly have no clue why there was no other kill besides mine last night. But I am not the last villain. Lynch me if you like, it will only favor whomever the last bad guy is.

Yes Nogrod, I am aware I can be a master manipulator, if that's what you think I'm doing now so be it. I've said everything I've needed to and can do no more. And any person can come on here and start saying 'well you're killing the wolves off to make yourself look better and more innocent.' Yaddah-yaddah-yaddah, but I'm sure you'll all ignore the fact that this entire time I've also been trying to bait the wolves into attacking me. Now if I am a lone bear out for my own victory, why have I been trying to get spotted by the wolves why have I been trying to make them attack me?

An innocent would be very wary of using that kind of points to steer her/his thoughts as they most probably mislead in a way or another.~Nogrod

I am not looking at anything Mithalwen said to people and her interaction with individual people. I know as a wolf she would be stirring things around trying to confuse us. But I mean come on, Mith this entire time has been nit picking Sauce about his linguistics. Do you honestly think if there was only one wolf left she would have said 'the others will get Boromir tonight' wouldn't she have said 'my partner will get Boromir tonight?' I know she is purely out to confuse, but just stop and think Mith obviously was saying she had more than one partner still alive. The fact remains that the wolves tried to get me last night, but I stopped them and killed one. And I think the reason we haven't won yet is because there is still one wolf out there.

I will say I think Nogrod and The Sixth are innocent and any other innocent I would trust their judgement in the days to come.

[Volo]

A bit surprising turn of events as it flawed my theories once again.

Well, have you forgotten the subject called Gil-Galad completely. Wouldn't that be an answer to why only one person died last Night?

And seriously, I'm not going to vote Boro, unless he confesses, that is. Being the lone Bear just doesn't work here:
1. So far there has been no Ranger revealed, which might be wise to do now to get the matter cleared.
2. A big lot of unknown Baddies like that and a relatively very small number of Gifteds to oppose them.

My theories:
1. I believe that there are two more Wolves, though am not sure of it anymore. I am somewhat sure that Lommy isn't one of them. I'm now willing to risk to think her Innocent.

2. The more probable theory that might be tried out, though could also be left out. Gil-Galad is the last Wolf. We could either lynch him toDay or wait until tommorow and see what happens. No kill -> Boro is a Goodie and Gil is a Baddie.

[Volo]

Look more Innocent than yesterDay, as the second Wolf band seemed to have stayed their hands. Unless they are of one lot with Aganzir, which also brings the question if Aganzir was just an Alpha Wolf like in Nogrod's game.

Mormegil
Nogrod
The Sixth Wizard


Doesn't look as Innocent as yesterDay, because of a big theory that I shall not explain, because it is now irrelevant.

Thinlómien


The one we should try poking a bit. Could explain why the Wolves didn't have a second kill, like Mith said.

Gil-Galad


I say we leave him be for toDay, if there is still a kill tomorrow, we can always lynch him then.

Boromir88


Innocent, though pretty useless.

Volo


I have to go pack and leave, now. The train won't wait. But please, do think about the possibilities presented here.

I'll try to vote toDay.

[Volo]

Here's one more reason why Boro shouldn't be voted (Boro, Boro shouldn't be voted! ): If he's lying about the counter-attack skill, then why is Aganzir dead?? I really doubt that Boro would have chosen her as his target so it must have been a counter-attack.

[mormegil]

Volo, our thoughts are very similar except on Lommy.

The dead:

The Saucepan Man - Slaughtered and boiled up in a spicy ghoulash on Night zero.
xyzzy - Got bored of the role-based banter and hung himself quietly on Day 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Meneltarmacil - Fatally wounded in sooth he was and crawled awaye to find ye deathe in ye woodes on Nighte 1 (Werewolfe)
Rune Son of Bjarne - Hunted and added to his own trophy collection on Night 1 (Ordinary Innocent)
Durelin - Spied on things which should not be seen and got hung for it on Night 1 (Thief)
Kath - Burned at the stake and spurned by her Lord on Day 2 (Priestess of Sauron)
Rikae - Tickled mercilessly and died with a smile on her face on Night 2 (Oridnary Innocent)
Legate of Amon Lanc - Underwent radical optical surgery and lost his life and his foresight on Night 2 (Druid)
Isabellkya - Mometarily caught off guard by a darting fox and set upon by the angry mob on Day 3 (Werewolf)
Shastanis Althreduin - Had the life squeezed from his Half human, half equine form on Night 3 (Oridnary Innocent)
the guy who be short - Consumed and reduced to nothing but bare bones on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent)
Feanor of the Peredhil - Brutally attacked yet lived long enough to write her bloody epitaph on Night 3 (Ordinary Innocent).
Mithalwen - Went down fighting in a dubious pastiche of British classic comedy and was summarily dismembered by a unanimous motion of the general assembly on Day 4 (Werewolf).
Aganzir Dead Night 4 (Werewolf)

The living:

Mormegil
Gil-Galad
Volo - the very hairy delegate from as far as it gets
Nogrod - the moody delegate from the Witch-burners' village who is ready and willing to form a theory to suit his feelings whatever the facts ...
Boromir88 - the filibuster delegate from Laketown, whose geography is not that good
The Sixth Wizard
Thinlómien - the Delegate of INSTRAW

I thought that would be helpful to remind us.

As I see it, Boro is telling the truth everything just fits so well that I can't see it as false. Boro is cunning on on either team he is on and I see him as good and will treat him thusly. I can sense the frustration in his posts. I have been there. I once declared myself the hunter and a wolf did too. I was lynched and was very frustrated by it all.

Anyway, now it seems to make sense to try and figure out what we are up against. On DAY 1 and 2 it seemed premature but now it it vital. My going theory is that we have 5 wolves one of them being the Alpha. 2 kills per night plus Boro's ability to kill. It makes pretty good sense at what has been going on up to this point. We have eliminated the Alpha wolf. It was either Mith or Aganzir, this truly depends on who is the remaining wolf. If Mith were the Alpha then the remaining wolf could be anybody, if Aganzir were then the likley candidate is Gil and that would explain why there wasn't a kill last night other than the attempted on by Aganzir.

What I would recommend is going today as though Mith were the Alpha and we still have one active wolf out there and if nothing happens tonight I would consider it to be Gil, Boro that means you either protect or kill Gil.

Other than Gil, Sixth and Lommy seem most suspicious to me. Volo seems less so because our thoughts seem to be similar. Noggie, I'm not sure about and Boro is innocent to me.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boro

Again, if anyone is saying that I can't protect myself and I'm making all of this up, why was there no wolf kill then?

Like I said, just because there's a real ranger who did protect you.

Originally Posted by Boro

Why in the heck would I spend my time killing the wolves when they were also doing my job if I was this bad lone bear?

Originally Posted by Volo

If he's lying about the counter-attack skill, then why is Aganzir dead?? I really doubt that Boro would have chosen her as his target so it must have been a counter-attack.

I think that (as funny as it sounds) he might have thought that she seems the least wolvish and thus killed her, because I guess he'd like to keep the wolves around so that his revealing wouldn't backfire...

Originally Posted by Boro

Why would I bait the wolves into coming and attacking me at night?

Now that is a fair point. I don't know. Maybe you do have some secret ability. Or maybe you thought your claim wouldn't be agreed with and as some people would suspect you the wolves would leave you around...? Or...? Anyway, even if that is a hole in my theory, I still think yours has even more holes.

I think a gifted wouldn't vote himself. Even if he was a hunter. On the other hand, it is difficult to see a bear voting himself either.

Originally Posted by Volo

Well, have you forgotten the subject called Gil-Galad completely. Wouldn't that be an answer to why only one person died last Night?

A fair point as well. But I doubt Sauce would have plagued this village by five wolves, a black priestess and a bear. Or even with five wolves and a priestess. I mean, it would be mathematically very unprobable that we would win if they got two kills per Night and we were to lynch five of them without double-lynches...

Originally Posted by Boro

However you are so certain this is the only answer that I am the sole bad guy therefor you kill me the village wins.

I'm not certain. I was certain in my first post toDay because I wanted to provoke a reaction from you and seems it worked well... I'm open to other ideas, but right now I see my theory as the one that makes most sense and thus I believe in it. While the problems of my theory center around your personal behaviour that seems unbelievable according to my theory (or so you claim), the problems of others center around an unbelievable game structure and I think that's far worse a flaw.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Like I said, just because there's a real ranger who did protect you.

Unless you are the Ranger how can you be so certain? This seems far more improbable coupled with the fact that Aganzir is dead.

Originally Posted by Lommy

A fair point as well. But I doubt Sauce would have plagued this village by five wolves, a black priestess and a bear. Or even with five wolves and a priestess. I mean, it would be mathematically very unprobable that we would win if they got two kills per Night and we were to lynch five of them without double-lynches...

See this is why I feel you are a wolf! It is not improbable that we win with 5 wolves against us. We almost have. The bear you speak of, if it is Boro as I believe, he is a good bear and is a great asset to the village. That helps to even the odds and keeps balance.

Lommy seems so certain and is trying to convince us all that no more wolves exist. Why? Because, I believe, she is the last wolf. Mith was the Alpha wolf and Lommy is the only one left and grasping straws here and she is doing anything and everything she can to discredit Boromir. I find Boromir's story to fit in much better with the events and Lommy's incredulity as extremely wolvish. Unless there are some major changes I will be voting Lommy. If as Lommy says there is another ranger I suggest they seriously consider revealing themselves. You may do more good as a known innocent than the possibility of stopping a wolf attack.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by morm

Anyway, now it seems to make sense to try and figure out what we are up against. On DAY 1 and 2 it seemed premature but now it it vital.

Exactly. Now the theory of five initial wolves with one of them being the alpha-wolf sounds reasonable. That would mean that we're here in a situation of six against one. And if Boro is true we have one extra-kill possibility every Night (although in that case Boro should really consider his choices).

But with six goodies against one baddie we could indeed afford to lynch Gil now. If he turns out innocent we still would have four against one toMOrrow - and failing then two against one the last Day. And if he's the sneaky baddie indeed he'd get what he deserves and we'd win. Anyhow that problem would be solved then.

But as morm said, the correct assessment of our situation is vital here for if we have more than one baddie left we're in deep trouble and would have to act more drastically toDay. But the idea of six (or more) wolves roaming in the village aided by a priestess with only a seer and a Boro on the innocent side sounds a bit unfair starting position for the village. A true bloodbath yes... but as someone noted: with those numbers the villagers couldn't afford even one misslynch and that's a pretty tough requirement in the beginning of the game.

[Thinlómien]

There's seven of us now. That's enough to let Boro live for one more Day, if we had some way of proving if he's true during the Night. I'm just afraid we don't have a means and not lynching him today would at worst (ie if he's a baddie/independent) more dead innocents. I have the feeling that if we don't lynch him toDay, we won't lynch him at all, and that might prove fatal...

Actually, I think Boro might be killed next Night in case he can't protect himself anymore (if he ever could do that) and there's no ordinary ranger. So, on second thought, I agree with Volo, let's leave killing him to the wolf if there's any and if no one dies we either have a ranger who should come out and say s/he's around toMorrow or Boro's a baddie and we should lynch him then. In either case I guess we can afford this tactics.

Originally Posted by morm

Unless you are the Ranger how can you be so certain? This seems far more improbable coupled with the fact that Aganzir is dead.

If you assume that Boro is evil/independent and there have been four wolves and a priestess and just one gifted (the druid) it would be logical to assume there was a ranger as well. So, what makes sense depends on the viewpoint. And of course I don't know whether there's a ranger or not. I'm just assuming. In case Boro's telling the truth I don't think there (necessarily) is a ranger. But in case he's evil then I'm pretty sure there is.

So, I agree to go on toDay on the assumption there's one wolf left and a good bear, even though it feels a bit unprobable. That will be more fruitful use of the Day than arguing about Boro's identity in case I'm wrong and doesn't spoil anything in case I'm right.

So: if there was still a wolf around, who would it be? (I'm going on the assumption that there was originally just 5 wolves, not 6, because while 5 wolves would be a highly challenging threat, 6 wolves is just too much.)

It might be Gil. We can't know. I'm not 100% sure can we lynch him though since we might need to use toMorrow's lynch to Boro.

Volo and Nogrod seem innocent to me. Aganzir felt innocent to me too. And they've all felt innocent the same way to me all the time (except occasional nagging suspicion) and it troubles me because I might be trusting them simply because they are people I know from RL and so I might unconsciously think "s/he's a nice guy, there's no reason to suspect him/her". The things should not be so, since two people out of seven is almost the third of the village, and not being able to trust one's own opinion about 33% of the people surely is a bad thing... Anyway, ignoring that psychic wobbling, I'm ready to say they feel innocent. Their reasoning is innocentish, I think.

Now morm... He could be either way. I have the feeling that he's clashing with me again and that usually happens when we're both innocents. He seems pretty genuine, but the things he says he could so well say if he was a wolf as well...

Now Sixth. He's quite suspicious I think. He jumped all too eagerly on my case against Boromir. A wolf could do that. And I can see a wolf-Sixth doing that. On the other hand, he's still somewhat newbie to this game and when some relatively experienced ww-player (like me) presents a theory with certainity, it's easy just agree. (I did that in my first game. But then again, this is definitely not Sixth's first game.) He has been quite slipping under people's radar, maybe purposfully and some of his votes have been a bit questionable... I could vote him toDay.

And as to the alpha wolf question, I'd rather think that as long as there were three or more wolves, they'd get 2 kills per Night and when there is just 2 or 1 of them, they get just one kill. I think it would be more sensible than having an alpha-wolf around...

(Sorry for the flip-flopping/illogicalness, I just thought while writing so this posts kind of records my thinking process rather than presents ready thoughts...)

[Nogrod]

Okay.

We're off to our summer cottage.

++ Gil-Galad

I believe we can afford to get rid of him now. If we don't do it toDay it's a lot tougher choice toMorrow.

Two reasons.

I can't imagine we had six or more wolves so there's only one left. That means we are six against one. There's all the sense in getting rid of the insecurity Gil creates in this village. All the others can be read but with him it's just pure chance.

I think Boro's defences sound more genuine than not (especially his last one) now as I have read them through after sleeping - and if he is a goodie he will most probably die the next Night. That kind of leaves me with no especially good candidate and as I have no time to start rereading & analysing everyone around I feel more comfortable with lynching Gil toDay and doing the analyses toMorrow on those left.

[Thinlómien]

I just calculated that whatever the case, we can afford lynching Gil toDay, even though if there's still one wolf in this village, the last Day might be a Day when there's one wolf and two innocents alive...

++Gil-Galad

[mormegil]

It is folly to lynch Gil today. What good does it do? Doubtful he is the remaining wolf. Did anybody else notice how quickly Lommy switched her opinion of Boro when a little opposition arose? Every post I am reading of hers today screams wolf to me. We really need to lynch her today instead of Gil and end this killing.

++Lommy

Volo and Sixth it's really up to you because Boro threw away his vote

[Boromir88]

Volo and Sixth it's really up to you because Boro threw away his vote~morm

Probably the biggest mistake I've made in this game. I reacted too early out of frustration as it seemed like no one was going to listen to me.

Anyway, here's what I have with Lommy. I am confident Morm is innocent, and pretty sure Nogrod is as well. I'm unsure about Volo and Sixth and hopefully I can get to them before the day ends. But I want to start with Lommy who I think is a wolf.

Lommy's attitude today has looked more like mocking than anything else:

So an invincible assassin+hunter+ranger? Sounds even more unbelievable...

Boro, if you're on our side, why isn't this game over already?

And claiming that I have 'gaping holes' in my story. Yet, morm has shown that my story actually completely fits together. You may think that a role such as a bear with the powers of killing, protecting self, and guarding sounds unbelievable but no one can deny it doesn't fit together (yet Lommy has denied it and claimed there are 'big holes' in my story) By Nogrod's own admission the only thing that didn't make sense is why would I have defend mormegil on Night 2. But I had answered that before Nogrod even brought it up.

I am going to throw out anything Mith said about people yesterday, but I have been looking at the interactions between the known dead wolves and Lommy. Here's some things...

I have no clear opinion about Menel because my brain always uncosciously turns to the "ignore"-function when I see more than one sentence in his writing style.... (No offense Menel, this just happens.... )~Thinlo on Menel

Seems a bit strange that Lommy would choose to ignore Menel because of the way he was writing. Perhaps she was joking around with him, but she was unable to form a 'clear opinion' about Menel.

Lommy: Innocentish.~Aganzir on Lommy

Kind of a strange disregarding remark...'ahh Thinlo's innocent.' (I will make note Aganzir does the same with The Sixth, only with The Sixth it's 'Neutral').

In Post 97, Aganzir addresses 2 now known and dead wolves and also says this about Lommy:

And think how mean it would be to kill her just when she at last gets a net access home.

Post 156:

Izzie seems wolvish for her vote but I can see her as a puzzled newbie as well. I don't know.~Thinlo on Izzie

Aganzir also makes me slightly uneasy for no particular reason.~Thinlo on Aganzir

The only one that wouldn't quite fit if Thinlo was a wolf is her thoughts on Mith:

Mith makes me uneasy too. Although contributing (especially to the narration-discussion) she seems a bit non-committal and wrong. I can't quite phrase it, but somehow she does not seem like her normal self.

I wouldn't expect wolves to simply list all their partners as 'unsure' and 'innocent.' Despite this however, Thinlo does bounce around from day-to-day in suspecting Mith and not suspecting her.

Lommy - She couldn't form a clear opinion of Menel because of his spelling. When reading it I remember thinking "now that's a good way to avoid mentioning a fellow wolf in analysis on the first Day, were they wolves". But I thought Menel and she were both innocent. Now we know Menel was a wolf, and Lommy hasn't said or done anything very suspicious toDay, but this still got me wondering. Then on the other hand she has suspected almost everyone - someone who has played more than I with her please tell if Lommy-wolf would do that?~Aganzir on Lommy

Now this just cries out one wolf talking about a partner. 'I was first suspicious of Lommy because of such and such, but she's looked innocent today, then I got wondering if she was a wolf again, but I don't know anyone know if Lommy would do this?' Wow.

Thinlo on Mith (Post 309):

As to my yesterday's main suspects - Kath, Legate and Mith - two are dead and the remaining feels less guilty. She feels sincere, but I still think her somewhat suspiciously non-committal. I would not, however, like to vote her today as I'm growing gradually less suspicious of her.

Hmm...more oddness...Mith was one of her main suspect now she's suddenly not, but she still feels 'non-committal.'

Izzie on Thinlo (Post 311):

Thinlomien; a post caught my eye.. she said that we shouldn't drop the idea of two wolf teams yet; but she didn't clarify why. She just left it open.

This is odd because Izzie makes no statement as far as what she thinks about Thinlo...is Thinlo acting odd? Suspicious? Innocent? Nothing, just 'this post caught my eye' however there no remark about what she thinks of 'this post of Lommy's that caught her eye.'

Aganzir on Lommy (Post 325):

I'm slowly beginning to feel a little bad about Lommy. I think I could go through her posts soon.

And Aganzir does do that in Post 342, with the final conclusion of Lommy being:

Actually the first thing that caught my eye was that she didn't have an opinion about Menel because his spelling turned the ignore-function on in her brain - but that feels like a very vague reason to suspect her.
And now it seems to me that it's the only reason I could have if I wanted to keep suspecting her. I fail to find anything wolfish (or worth mentioning) from these posts. Either she's innocent or completely fooling me.

And in Post 338 Lommy bounces around some more with Mith. I wasn't going to vote for her, now I'm wary and could vote for her, though I would prefer to vote for someone else...hmmm very awkward.

The only thing about this day (the day Izzie was lynched) that I just can't figure out is both Aganzir and Lommy voted for Izzie. Lommy actually broke the massive 1 votees tie. Would two wolves vote for another wolf, especially when they could have chosen to lynch someone else rather easily? I don't know.

Post 371 of Lommy's:

Aganzir - I think she's very difficult to get a grasp on. She has done nothing to make me particularly suspicious. As a side note, she seems to be slipping under everybody's (including mine) radar...

Indecisive as far as what she feels about Aganzir. Mith however she comes out firing:

Mithalwen - She's my top suspect right now. Her sort of non-committality (is that a word?), placement in the Gil-discussion and my bad gut-feeling about her could point to her guilt. Also, I find her way of throwing suspiion and/or placing people into spotlight quite wolvish. For example, yesterDay she said I was slipping under everybody's radar, although morm had quite vocally suspected me and Sixth had expressed concern over my and Volo's chatting.

She bounces around with Mith the previous day and now she comes out strongly suspecting her. Now would a wolf do this with one of their partners? Perhaps, it may have been planned during the night.

I was wondering why Mith let us all know she was a wolf yesterday. I mean she pretty much handed herself right to us, which makes me think yesterday was a set up. Mith seemed to have just given up fighting and sacrificed herself yesterday. I am completely disregarding what Mith said to people yesterday, but something she did say caught my eye:

Even when you kill me your job is at best half done. There will be still two wolf kills tonight and barring disasters wolves will at least equal the innocents.

Now Lommy has been insistant that there can be no more wolves and I have to be the last baddie. Mith seemed confident that there would still be 2 wolf kills, and one of them was going to be me.:

Perhaps the others will take out Boromir (thanks for your help in innocent killing my friend!)? Would be a pity to double up.

But she says 'wolves will at least equal the innocents.'

The wolves did not know of my power to protect myself (which is what I hoped!) So, they were clearly thinking I was going to be dead yesterday, and there would be another wolf kill. So is there even more than one wolf left? I wouldn't rule that out just yet. And I am not like Lommy's assertion that if we get a wolf today, this has to be the last one:

So, I agree to go on toDay on the assumption there's one wolf left and a good bear,

Seems like I'm being set up if we get a wolf sometime toDay and during the night than I have to be the last remaining bad guy because it's so unlikely that there are 6 wolves. I may sound crazy, but maybe there is still more than one wolf left? I mean throughout the entire village here both Aganzir and Lommy have both been saying 4-5 wolves maybe but 6 is just so unlikely and impossible. Gets me wonderings.

[mormegil]

Nice (long) post Boromir. After that I am more suspicious of Lommy. I think they, the wolves, started getting down to the end and knew that they would have to spread around suspicion and votes amongst themselves. Lommy's second vote for Isabell that day wasn't that odd because I don't remember the discussion being too slanted to 'lynch Isabell'. So that means Lommy would have been able to vote for her mate but not really believe that she would be voted off that day.

Anyway, it's all a moot point if the others don't come and vote for her. I really only believe that there are 5 wolves. 5 of 20 is 25% which is a good amount of wolves but Boromir what your post illustrates to me is that they all were one team. Anyway if Lommy doesn't die tomorrow all the innocents left really need to band together and lynch her.

[Aganzir]

He texted me a while ago and asked to post the following:

++ Lommy

We can deal with Gil tomorrow, as he clearly can't defend himself, nor kill if Wolf.
Boro, consider killing Nogrod next Night.

[mormegil]

Volo, this last message makes me feel good about you and realize that you are likely innocent.

Sixth where are you???

[The Sixth Wizard]

I am willing to believe that there is one Alpha Wolf (was) and that we have only one baddie left. Boro's story now seems believeable, and I don't think if he was evil he could play the part so well. Well played trick, Boromir!

I dislike the way Lommy insists on attacking him, even scraping the bottom of the barrel at times. A real ranger? Pollycock. And why would she want to provoke a reaction anyway? What she says in latter posts sounds wolvish.

I don't mind the rest of you, so:

++Thinlomien

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, let's call it a Day, eh?

Voting outcome coming soon.