Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I certainly put weight in your opinions, and you are a valuable ally, but you are not the Seer. I'll think for myself, as well.

You're encouraged to do that... I have never said I should be seen as any Mr. Right here. But unlike with all the others you all know that I'm not trying to do harm to this village... Obviously everyone decides for oneself. How else it could be? And hopefully everyone also thinks her/himself!

But what I can see from your reactions?

Well they don't exactly dispel my suspicions... quite on the contrary.

It's so nice to get comfirmation to ones suspicions...

[Durelin]

Considering the number of people, including myself, who have not even had a vote for them yet, I'd say there are quite a few who could fall under the "haven't really gotten suspicion" category.

I have been in games with SPM before, and I recall one in which I helped in his lynching on Day 3 or 4, as a bumbling innocent. A Ranger, I think.

I'm not defending SPM, Nogrod; I have a problem with your logic. And if I'm "digging my own grave," then so be it. At least I'm still free of my Day/Night 3 curse.

Edit: Crossed again

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I'm not defending SPM, Nogrod; I have a problem with your logic.

Funny that tgwbs thinks the same...

When I come back I'll try to have some minutes for this logic-stuff too. It's just outrageous what tgwbs passes forwards with the epithet of logic.

And if I'm "digging my own grave," then so be it. At least I'm still free of my Day/Night 3 curse.

In this situation, from the innocent point of view it's most comfortable that the Faithfuls start to dig their own graves. A relief, I'd say. And I'm more than happy to help you out from your Day/Night3 curse - not that I'm needed with that anymore as it's already Day4...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Considering the number of people, including myself, who have not even had a vote for them yet, I'd say there are quite a few who could fall under the "haven't really gotten suspicion" category.

"Haven't been suspected" and "haven't been voted" are different things my dear friend... You know it as well as I do. But why try to say something like that? To shadow the points and to stick to interpretating words in a convenient way to you?

Now where is the common good, the good of the villagers?

You need to fight better than this...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Considering the number of people, including myself, who have not even had a vote for them yet, I'd say there are quite a few who could fall under the "haven't really gotten suspicion" category.

The best flip so far! So nice to have noticed this... Now what is this? "Them"? The innocents you mean? So not us as innocents?

They (the innocents) suspect you or people in general and you (the faithfuls) scheme around and orchestrate the things?

Well there is and end to that and it's here.

Three of you are caught. We only need the fourth one...

[Durelin]

I'm going to sleep.

(Anything wolfish there, Nogrocissist?)

[Thinlómien]

Oh, I see, Gil's come and voted again...

Well, that argument of Durelin's and Nogrod's is something quite weird...

While I give credit to Nogrod's theory (and to his logic ) I think he's a bit harsh there. I certainly would not be surprised to find TGWBS and Durelin wolves - I've suspected them from quite early - and Sauce isn't the most innocent-looking of villagers either (so all in all Nog's theory is a good one), but I think Nog has got a bit too enthusiastic about his theory: I think he's reading a bit too much to Durelin's responses. (Yes, believe it or not, I'm defending one of my main suspects here. )

Originally Posted by Nogrod

"Haven't been suspected" and "haven't been voted" are different things my dear friend... You know it as well as I do. But why try to say something like that? To shadow the points and to stick to interpretating words in a convenient way to you?

I think this is a good example of it. I got the impression Durelin used the voting-thing to demonstrate the not many have really been suspected -argument, while Nogrod draws equation marks between Durelin saying "not really suspected" and "not voted". Overall Durelin's responses seem a bit edgy, which might point to a nervous wolf, but it's worth keeping in mind that an innocent may turn quite edgy too while facing that kind of consistent attack. And no, this little defense of Durelin does not mean that I'd suspect her any less than I did before, merely that Nogrod's a bit too enthusiastic about his case and I'm not sure if all his points concluded form his and Durelin's dialogue are valid. So, my thoughts: Nogrod's case - very good; Durelin - suspicious; the points Nogrod has against Durelin in their dialogue - partly good, pertly bad.

I'd love to do an analysis of TGWBS before I go, but as it took quite a long time to do the Durelin-one, I'm not sure if I have time...

[Thinlómien]

As stupid and irritating as it is, I must go now. That's a real pity since over half of the village hasn't said anything toDay yet and so much can still happen and that happening can be pretty much anything.

++DURELIN

I've kind of stated my suspicons against her quite many times (see especially the analysis I made toDay). Also, Nogrod has some valid points against her. For the first time in this game I'm quite confident I'm voting a wolf, so let's pray the Darkness I'm not mistaken here, because then I'm completely on the wrong track.

It'd be quite nice to get a faithful toDay... A third of the persons who have voted or are going to vote toDay (unless Mänwe was a wolf) are evil, so they can sway the vote quite a bit and even more in the days to come, though it still takes them time to reach the fatal majority and win the game. Also, I just calculated, that unless there is a faithful-withdrawal or a succesful hunter kill this game is going to go on 'til Saturday even if we lynch a faithful every day!

[the guy who be short]

Well, well, an angry Nogrod on my case, eh? Let's see if my logic can persuade him otherwise.
Firstly, I don't get the point you're trying to make in highlighting "a little." Suspecting SpM when he lives on is natural, as you yourself show. However, the Faithful know that innocents think like this, so they may leave him alive, especially if his analyses are wayward, knowing that the village will eventually turn on him.

Originally Posted by nogrod

tgwbs: how about a short list now? One that the known innocent gives consisting of you three?

If you look back, you will note that I did not advocate a shortlist this game. The way people keep bringing this up annoys me, because it is fabricated. I advocated using you as a base. I also said that a shortlist in this village would be mathematically unwise as we don't have enough known villagers.

As it is, I don't much mind being on your shortlist. I see no reason why I should be exempt from your suspicion. But the idea of a shortlist in this game (not universally) is flawed. Observe:

There are 12 unknown villagers. 4 are wolves. This means the probability of there being at least one wolf in a shortlist of 3 is 1 - (2/3)^3 = 70%. Good odds.

However, with only 1 known innocent, the wolves have too much sway in the voting. There's a 44% chance of 1 wolf, a 22% chance of 2 wolves and a 4% chance of 3 wolves (as well as 30% 0 wolves). It's therefore most likely that there's one wolf. This means the four wolves can have huge influence by voting for the other two candidates, making the rest of the villagers also pay more attention to the innocent targets.

Comprendrez? Shortlist = good with lots of known innocents, small number of wolves. Shortlist = bad with few known innocents, large number of wolves.

I hope I've made that clear once and for all.

just outrageous what tgwbs passes forwards with the epithet of logic.

I'm a mathematician, and I'm afraid I think mathematically. I stand by my ideas - such as leaving Roa alive. Perhaps if everybody else had ignored her, we'd have caught a wolf by now. Thank you for digging up what you advised to forget, anyway.


I notice how Gil voted for me as soon as he saw there was some support from Nogrod. If Manwe pulls out, I'll be voting Gil, because they way he's just floating on without anybody paying attention to him is dangerous.

[the guy who be short]

Hookbill

The first thing I notice is that he has only made 12 posts. Exclusive of Day 1 banter:

Post 179 - Just says he's new and not too good at the game.

Post 229 - Accuses Kath.

Post 323 - Slight suspicion of SpM. Accuses Manwe.

Post 411 - Votes Manwe.

Post 424 - Says his vote for Manwe was because he had little to go on. Slightly suspicious of those who voted for Brinniel.


Five posts over three days... And he says very little to analyse. The Manwe vote and then saying it was because he had nothing to go on might be a wolf-on-wolf vote, but there's nothing to think suspect really. As with Gil but to a lesser extent, I suspect him a little (yes, a little!) because he gives little to suspect. But not much to worry about I'd say.

[Lalaith]

I'm quite glad it's reasonably quiet at the moment - I'm getting a chance to spend my Sunday morning reading the thread more closely than I've had a chance to, up til now. I'll be back in with some analysis later on. But I'm at a loss to understand this:

third of the persons who have voted or are going to vote toDay (unless Mänwe was a wolf) are evil,

Eh? Why is Manwe being referred to in the past tense?

[Lalaith]

I've just seen a reference in guy's post above about Manwe pulling out. I've clearly missed something.

[the guy who be short]

8 posts total. Since Day 2, then:

Post 245 - Devotes a whole long post to the Roa-rikae debate. Regardless of where you stand on lynching Roa, devoting time to the debate is suspicious, especially if that's all you do, because it stopped any serious analysis being done in the latter half of that day.

Post 320 - Accuses Hookbill.

Post 352 - votes Hookbill.

So... three posts in 3 days.

Despite her quietness, I will cut her some slack because she's had blizzards. While she says very little, I think she makes good points about Hookbill, and she seems sincere. I'm leaning to thinking her innocent.

[the guy who be short]

Lal - Manwe said he'd like to pull out on the Admin thread, though it has now been deleted by mormegil. Mac has yet to respond.

[The Saucepan Man]

Nogrod, if I didn't know better, I'd be convinced that you are a Faithful trying to twist my words. Which just goes to show (for me, anyway) how easy it is to view malign intent behind innocent, but misguided, words. You seem to have made up your mind that I am a Faithful and are now looking for anything in what I say which might support that theory. Unfortunately, your theory is wrong.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now now... Have we seen an act looking more Faithfulish than this? Look at the bolding and make your deductions...

You quoted only TGWBS, yet I was responding to both you and TGWBS. To be honest, I get really fed up when suspicion starts building on me later in the game just because I am still alive. I suspect that the Faithfuls are well aware that some people think like this and it probably goes some way to explaining just why I am still alive, particularly given the suspicion that I have been under in previous Days.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So whom do we have there but you Mr. SPM? It was the Faithfuls' first actual night of open choice last Night if you don't remeber. They had everyone but me on their plate... and if you're innocent they just happily ignored you as they thought that an innocent Spm's analysis would leave them intact toDay and would be less of a threat to them than Rune?

You yourself pointed out the likely reason for Rune's death. I can well understand why they would kill an innocent looking Rune (after that comment) than an SpM under serious suspicion. And I think that you do others a disfavour by thinking that I would be the obvious choice for the Faithfuls when they have a free choice of who to kill.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You just can't be serious here! In this situation the Faithfuls have no reason to shy away from killing an "innocent Spm" just because Rune had one of them on his suspicion list!

I was actually agreeing with you that Rune's last minute comment most likely explains his death. But that does not mean that we should not consider other possibilities.

Nogrod, I do not expect to be free from examination. But please try to bring some objectivity to bear. You are to valuable to us toDay not to do so.

I need to get down to looking at those Day 3 votes but unfortunately, it is going to have to wait until after lunch. I hope to have a lot more time to do some analysis this afternoon.

[the guy who be short]

10 posts from him. Day 2 onwards:

Post 194 - Devotes a little time to Roa-Rikae debate, defends himself against Rune, defends Lommy and Hookbill.

Post 269 - Says he has no particular suspects.

Post 275 - Votes Roa.

Post 288 - Asks Rikae who she thinks we should vote for before she dies (that night). I don't know why. She already told us what she thought.

Post 342 - Thinks I advocated a shortlist. Suspects Mith for wanting to not lynch Roa.

Post 407 - Suspects Brinniel, Kitanna, Thinlomien. Mildly suspects Durelin, Mithalwen. Neutral about Gil-Galad, Kath, Lalaith, Manwe, SpM. Neutral about me, though I am narrow-viewed, apparently. Thinks Hookbill, Rune innocent.


I'm uneasy about Legate. Unlike some quiet posters, who we notice for being quiet - Kitanna, Gil - he says just enough to not attract attention for quietness. Like the others, he seems to fly under the radar a little, but more effectively. My mind also goes back to his Brinniel-Hookbill intervention. However, he offers quite a few opinions, which I see as innocent. Hookbill and Gil, meanwhile, are notable for their lack of input, meaning we have nothing to trace them back on.

[Nogrod]

I just had time to pop in and reread toDay and update myself. I'm off for a while again but will be back and hopefully have some time to try and figure out even something out of this mess we're in.

I just wish to show you this that somehow escaped me earlier.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Okay, that last minute Brinniel thing confused me just as much as the last minute try-to-save Roa thing did. Again, it was like people were trying to rescue Rune, rather than vote for who they were actually suspicious of. I am really bothered by how people, even if they speak their own minds, do not back it up with a vote. Rather than voting for who they find suspicious, they vote for just who "looks like they can be lynched," who maybe they suspect a little, maybe even more than a little...but all the while their top suspect is forgotten, and all the analysis or what have you they did against them becomes meaningless.

Now this looks very innocent to be honest. I indeed had to read it twice as I tried to figure out how on earth a Faithful would go on with this kind of speculation. It's not so much the contents of this but the fact that she goes on to speculate this kind of thing.

But then she continues.

Please, please - everyone. We have to get a wolf toDay (duh, I know), so please vote for who you think is suspicious, and not just who is convenient.

This on the contrary sets all my alarm-bells ringing!

Confused...

Originally Posted by Myself

tgwbs: how about a short list now? One that the known innocent gives consisting of you three?

Originally Posted by tgwbs

If you look back, you will note that I did not advocate a shortlist this game. The way people keep bringing this up annoys me, because it is fabricated........

A bit uptight now aren't we? As that clearly was a joke...

It's good to see you and Spm so helpful toDay! Time to make an impression?

Originally Posted by SPaM

Which just goes to show (for me, anyway) how easy it is to view malign intent behind innocent, but misguided, words. You seem to have made up your mind that I am a Faithful and are now looking for anything in what I say which might support that theory.

You know it as well as I do that basically anyone can be painted black if that is wished for. But I have not decided anything in advance and am trying very much not to overdo this as I think it be of an utmost importance that I will not mislead anyone toDay.

[the guy who be short]

So far, Lommy, Legate, Kath and you (Nogrod) have accused me of supporting a shortlist. If I'm uptight, it's because people seem to have a shared delusion that I, at some point, said "Hey guys! Let's all vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, despite the maths."

Originally Posted by nogrod

It's good to see you and Spm so helpful toDay! Time to make an impression?

It really does seem that you're just clutching at any straw you can get your hand on. Even if it's imaginary. I have the third highest post count among the living villagers, and have been offering analyses every day.

[The Saucepan Man]

Lunch over.

So here, as promised, is my analysis of the Day 3 votes

TGWBS: Voted for Brinniel on the basis that she was neither for nor against lynching Roa. Subsequently switched to Manwe on the basis that he thought him trying to sow seeds of doubt in the villager’s mind about Rikae. I don’t find the switch particularly suspicious, as there was little suggestion at the time that Brinniel would end up being lynched. However, I am rather dubious about his reasoning for voting for Manwe. Manwe was strongly in favour of lynching Roa because he thought that she was lying, but thought it was also a good idea even admitting the small possibility that she was not. I rather agree with his (Manwe’s) reasoning. I still have some suspicion of TGWBS, because I am concerned that he may have been twisting Manwe‘s words here.

Kitanna: Voted for Hookbill for seeming to hide behind a “mask of newbieness” and consistently claiming to be a bad judge of character. I cannot fault her reasoning, as I am uneasy about Hookbill for the same reason. However, Hookbill is one of those who has been bubbling under in the village’s suspicions, but with little prospect of attracting too many votes. And, despite being plagued by blizzards, there was always a possibility that she could return and switch her vote, if necessary. I have concerns that Kitanna may well be a "slip under the radar" Faithful and, of all the Day's votes, this one looks the safest Faithful vote to me. It may even have been a Faithful-on-Faithful vote.

Kath: Voted for Rune for safe voting and for casting suspicion without much reasoning. I found Rune suspicious for much the same reason. She put Rune ahead here, with 2 votes, and, in light of her vote, I doubt that a Faithful Kath would have advocated killing Rune in the Night. Also, she gives a long analysis of all the villagers and states where she stand with each one before voting, which makes me feel better about her. Inclined to think her innocent at present.

Mithalwen: Voted for Lalaith on the basis of previously stated suspicions, and then switches to Brinniel because she thought her more suspicious than Rune. Her vote for Lalaith was not particularly safe, given that there was a fair amount of suspicion around Lal at the time. I am concerned about the bandwaggon that suddenly gathered around Brinniel at the end, although I am not sure that a Faithful would have had much to gain by being included in it. That said, whoever speculated that the Brinniel voters had good reason to kill Rune in the Night had a good point and I do think that there was one Faithful, possibly two, among the last minute Brinniel voters. I don’t, however, think it was Mith, as she has not been acting like I would expect a Faithful Mith to act.

Durelin: Voted for Rune on the basis that he was her original suspect of the Day and she had “seen this kind of Rune before”, putting him 2 votes ahead of anyone else. I do find Durelin suspicious and her run-in with Nogrod earlier toDay does not reassure me, as it may have been a Faithful attempt to associate herself with an innocent. Like Kath, I do wonder whether a Faithful Durelin would have been so bold as to kill Rune in the Night, after this vote. That said, if there was a Faithful among the Rune voters, I think this to be the one. Still looking very suspicious to me.

Lalaith: Voted for Brinniel, bringing her to 2 votes. She said that she didn’t much like the choices, but that it was a toss-up between Brinniel and Manwe as she didn’t find Rune suspicious. Now, there was inevitably a bit of confusion surrounding these last minute votes and switches. But this was the vote that started the slide towards Brinniel’s lynching. As such, it looks more suspicious to me than those which came later. I also don’t really like the comment about disliking the choices. It may well have been intended to give the option of distancing herself from the situation if Brinniel was lynched and found innocent (as happened). Lalaith remains high in my suspicions.

Lommy: Voted for Brinniel, saying that, of those she found suspicious, only she could be lynched. Much the same applies as with regard to Lalaith above. I am certain that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and, since they have both been defending each other every so often, I wonder whether they both might be. If so, both voting for Brinniel at this stage was dangerous but, given the timing, it may well have been a cross-post and retracting would have looked even more suspicious.

Legate: Voted for Brinniel, although I am not entirely sure from his reasoning why. This followed an analysis of each villager. My concerns over Legate yesterDay were based on the fact that he seems to say a lot without saying much. His analysis does not ease my concerns in that regard. His vote for Brinniel was a cross-post so, if he is a Faithful, he may have unintentionally voted here with one of his friends. Still looking suspicious to me.

Hookbill: Voted for Manwe because of a hunch that he was untrustworthy, putting him on 3 votes. Given the confusion, I am not sure that this was the safe vote it might otherwise seem (Brinniel was on 5 votes at the time). That said, I remain suspicious that he has given very little away about what he thinks and has voted for Manwe on both Days that he has voted without really giving any solid reasons. I am still wary of him.

Based on that and my previous thinking, my current list is as follows:

Suspicious
Lalaith
Durelin
Lommy
Kitanna

Somewhat suspicious
TGWBS
Hookbill
Legate

No idea
Gil-Galad

Inclined to think innocent
Manwe
Kath
Mithalwen

Innocent
Nogrod

Does anyone know if Manwe is still playing? I missed all the furore on the Admin thread. Even if not, I guess we won’t know his innocence or guilt until toNight? Mac?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Quote:
Please, please - everyone. We have to get a wolf toDay (duh, I know), so please vote for who you think is suspicious, and not just who is convenient.

This on the contrary sets all my alarm-bells ringing!

There is much in Durelin that I find suspicious. But this comment of hers doesn't set my alarm bells ringing in quite the same way. Would you mind explaining your reasoning?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You know it as well as I do that basically anyone can be painted black if that is wished for. But I have not decided anything in advance and am trying very much not to overdo this as I think it be of an utmost importance that I will not mislead anyone toDay.

Glad to hear it. But your earlier posts toDay suggested to me quite the opposite. And I am concerend over your reasoning when you say that Rune was killed because his last minute comment when he thought that he had been lynched strongly suggested his innocence (with which I agree), and yet you also say that somone under quite serious suspicion (ie me) would have been a better candidate.

[The Saucepan Man]

Am I the only one here?

I’ve been thinking further about that last minute flurry of votes for Brinniel yesterDay. It can’t really be described as a “bandwaggon” because we have four votes for her which effectively look to have been cast at more or less the same time: those of Lalaith, Lommy, Mith and Legate. It would have been dangerous for the Faithfuls to be caught in a bandwaggon which led to the lynching of an innocent but, since this was not really a bandwaggon, different considerations apply. It seems to me quite likely that one Faithful, and possibly two, were caught up in that last minute Brinniel vote. And, as I indicated earlier, to retract would have been even more dangerous for a Faithful.

Of the Brinniel voters, I find Lalaith and Lommy the most suspicious, for reasons earlier stated. Legate is a distinct possibility too. I am still inclined to think Mith innocent.

But I am currently in a quandary over whom to vote for.

On the one hand, I feel sure that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and I am most inclined to vote for one of these two.

On the other hand, I am most uncomfortable about the way that Durelin was defending me against Nogrod earlier toDay. While Nogrod’s case against me, quite apart from being wrong, makes little sense, I am always rather dubious when I am defended by another villager in this way, particularly when it comes from someone over whom I am already suspicious. I am concerned that, seeing that I might be lynched, it may have been an attempt to associate herself with me, or at least to deter me from voting for her.

And on the third hand (if I may be allowed such a thing ), I am becoming increasingly concerned that one or two of the Faithfuls may be “fly under the radar” types. I have come across such types a few times before, usually to my (and the village’s detriment). In this regard, I am particularly concerned about Kitanna, who has contributed relatively little, voted relatively safely (Garin, a no vote and Hookbill) and generally steered well clear of suspicion. I am also wary of Hookbill and Legate, as I have said. And I am distinctly uncomfortable that we have practically nothing to go on with Gil-Galad. Even his voting gives little away.

I need to think this all through much more, but I currently remain undecided between these possibilities.

[Durelin]

Durelin's responses point to a tired Durelin who was not in the mood for nonsense. And I'm still not, because I woke up with a sinus headache as usual.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This on the contrary sets all my alarm-bells ringing!

How does what you quoted not follow the previous paragraph? You have stated yourself that a third of the voters toDay are going to be wolves. They will undoubtedly sow the seeds of an innocent lynch as best they can, and will do all they can to make the lynch of an innocent the most convenient. The best way to try and avoid that is just to vote for who you are suspicious of! I don't know why that's such a novel idea.

I know I am expected to ignore you, or respond more "calmly," or what have you...but the issue here is not "omg, you think I'm guilty?! moi?" It's not like I've never been suspected before. The issue is first that you are being illogical, and second that you are behaving pompously. I think the fact that the Seer so often dreams of you is going to your head.

I may not be a mathematician like TGWBS, but I am at least a self-proclaimed philosopher.

We have way too many no-posters. I can just see the wolves sitting back and laughing as they watch Nogrod on his tirade making their job easy for them.

My main suspects are:

Mith - For what I stated in my first post toDay.
Lalaith - For leading the last minute Brinniel lynch pack.
Legate - For sliding by thus far and saying he was voting for Brinniel because he was suspicious of her, and not explaining why.
SPM - For his "oh my goodness, why am I alive?" thing and his
Lommy - Her "of my suspects, she can be lynched" thing. Maybe there's a bit of spite involved? Maybe.

Yes, five. Why? Because unlike some people, I am not under the delusion that I am the Seer and have dreamed of enough people to know who for certain who the four wolves are. It always comes down to Days like these, where everyone's like "we have to get a wolf, cause, duh, otherwise we're really screwed," and there are many times everyone even says "oh please hold your votes as long as you can and consider as carefully as you can," but it never turns out that way. Everyone jumps on something, and then it's all downhill from there.

So, I say again: first, everyone please try to vote toDay. Second, vote for who you think/feel is suspicious. If you think I'm suspicious, fine. Vote for me. But don't just vote for whoever Nogrod tells you to vote for. *cough*don'tbeaGil*cough*

Edit: Crossed with Saucie. He's as bad as Nogrod.

[the guy who be short]

20 posts from her. From Day 2:

Post 139 - Says we should look at Garin voters. Confused that Holby wasn't a wolf.

Post 144 - Confused about why the wolves went for Rikae as they should know the Ranger would protect her.

Post 153 - Says Rikae was safe, but she switched vote just in case.

Post 222 - Says she finds it too unlikely that Rikae is not the Seer. This is what an innocent would say.

Post 301 - Suggests that the known innocent chooses the lynching target - this is foolish and seems Faithful to me.

Post 306 - Nothing much.

Post 347 - Says she did not advise a Nogrod-led lynch, but that we should consider it.

Post 358 - Analysis of everybody. Suspects brinniel, durelin, me. Mildly suspects Legate, Manwe. Finds innocent Gil-Galad, Hookbill, Lommy. Neutral about Kath, Kitanna, Mith, Rune, SpM.

Post 367 - Says if she's lynched, look at those who voted for her.

Post 372 - Nothing much.

Post 374 - Supports Lommy's innocence.

Post 393 - Says she doesn't think Rune is a wolf, so she'll vote for brinniel or manwe, her top-running candidates. I also don't like the way people vote not for their top candidates, but who looks lynchable. This isn't British politics - go for your top suspect.

Post 400 - Votes Brinniel but doesn't like the choices - i.e. Brinniel, Rune, Manwe.

Posts 451-2 Confusion about Manwe's position.


What struck me going over was the overwhelming brevity of Lal's post. Though a comparatively frequent poster, only one of her posts was more than about six lines long. Again, I get the feeling she's keeping a presence without saying much.

I don't like the way she didn't vote for who she found most suspicious either. She also seems a little paranoid about being lynched - the "look at those who voted for me" post. Why?

Her behaviour has also been suspicious - the subtle suggestion that Nogrod should choose one lynching candidate, the way she switched her vote to Manwe to "save Rikae" and wondering why the wolves went for Rikae - a classic wolf bluff.

Quite suspicious, I think.

That concludes my analyses of all my neutrals yesterday. Here is a renewed table of suspicion:

Faithful-seeming
Manwe
Gil-Galad
Lalaith

Slightly suspicious
Lommy
Legate
Hookbill

Don't really know
Kath
Durelin

More innocent than faithful
Kitanna

Probably innocent
SpM
Mith

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

SPM - For his "oh my goodness, why am I alive?" thing and his

... and his what?

You are seriously confusing me here, Durelin, and its not making me feel any better about you. First, you leap to my defence against Nogrod's poor "because he's still alive" case. Then you accuse me on the same basis.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But don't just vote for whoever Nogrod tells you to vote for.

I will take Nogrod's views into account if I think that he makes sense. And I am currently very interested in looking to see what he has said about you.

[the guy who be short]

We've been through three quarters of our day, and a frightening proportion of us have said absoultely nothing.

Even before I read the two posts above, I considered that the Faithful could very easily be several quiet villagers lying low and letting the loud get themselves killed. This would be a brilliant tactic because it's proven to work.

On the basis that Manwe might still pull out, and if he does, a vote for him would be wasted, I now vote for my second suspect:

++GIL-GALAD

[Kitanna]

Well the blizzards have stopped, but my access for the next few Days will be limited. So I'll try to do what I can now while I still have time.

Anywho, in one of his first posts of the day tgwbs suggested this as to why Rune was killed:

One theory is that there are a few wolves among the Brinniel voters who feared suspicion and so killed Rune, thereby showing that most of the rest of the village had also voted for an innocent yesterday. This would incriminate Lalaith, Legate, Lommy and Mith. But the more I think about it, the less this kill makes sense.

This seems a bit complex, but not without merit. Howver I was wondering if there was a simpler solution to Rune's death. I have every intention of going over Rune's posts to see if maybe he said something that could be considered a clue. Perhaps the faithfuls thought him a gifted. The Nogrod said this:

The killing of Rune can be explained as it's clearly because of his honest frustration ("Silly sods") when he thought (mistakingly) that we had lynched him.

Rune thought he had been lynched and made his "silly sod" comment. Maybe the faithfuls took that as a gifted remark. "Oh you silly people, you've lynched a line of defense." I will hopefully have time to go through Rune's posts afterall he is the first real kill for the faithfuls. The rest were simply musts.

I still retain my suspicions of Hookbill, but I'd like to take a closer look at what happened at the end of yesterday. All the hubbub that caused the lynching of Brinniel.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Spm generally is lynched very early on for some nonexistent grounds by whims of the first Days or then he stays to the end. (Please Spm correct me if I'm wrong about the general tendency) I could indeed bet a nice amount for seeing a village that would lynch Spm after let's say Day5.

I missed this earlier. I will indeed correct your wrong impression. I have been wrongfully lynched on a number of occasions later in the game, mainly due to bad voting decisions and the fact that I was still alive!

Having looked at Nogrod’s case against Durelin, it seems to be largely predicated on his misguided suspicion of me. There is something there though because, as I have said, I am wary of her earlier attempts to defend me. So perhaps something may come of his mistrust of me, after all.

Originally Posted by Durelin

SPM - For his "oh my goodness, why am I alive?" thing and his

If I may correct another misapprehension here, it was not me who raised the fact that I am still alive. It was Nogrod and TGWBS. Since it is something that irritates me intensely, I can hardly be expected not to react to it. I don’t like the way that you are emphasising this point by suggesting that it was me who brought it up.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I have been playing with a bit forced tenor toDay as I thought I would like to provoke some reactions. Now it seems that all my suspects - those I picked as ones that would be controversial enough - have answered in a way or another, I have my impression of their attitudes. Unfortunately it looks like the only people posting here are the same three people so there is little more I (or anyone else of you) could have learned from this little exercise. I truly hoped people would post and I (we) could see how people reacted to my "strongly confident cases"...

But as I see that people start to vote (three votes - three different candidates!) I must call this thing off as I'm afraid it is too risky now.

I would like to say how frustrated I'm about silence in the villages but maybe I won't.

Anyhow I'm getting a feeling that lynching one of the three - almost the only contributors toDay - might be unwise indeed as soon this village will die into silence if these people are lynched and the (remaining) Faithfuls can roam free.

[Durelin]

SPM - I never defended you for it; I disagreed with his logic. I'm sorry it seemed like I was defending you.

Also, what I said there was that I suspected you for being all "oh la-dee-da, I wonder why I'm not dead yet," as if you felt the need to explain. I do not suspect you just because you're still alive. That's just foolish, I agree - which is why I argued with Nogrod about it.

Originally Posted by SPM

If I may correct another misapprehension here, it was not me who raised the fact that I am still alive. It was Nogrod and TGWBS.

You are right; I apologize. Just like everyone else, I don't read every post on the thread. So lynch me.


And sorry, I didn't finish my thought there.

Here it is: And his lacksydasical attitude, though it is typical of him, seems forced right now.

One more thing you're right about, SPM - the only case Nogrod ever had against me was based on my responses to his attacking me with my guilt preconceived. If you think that the fact that I won't ignore such an attack makes me guilty, then so be it.

At least the only person who's voted for me so far tried to put some reasoning behind it. Thank you, Lommy.

I'm only being confusing, even to myself, so I'll be back later.

*wanders off in need of painkiller*

Edit: Crossed with Nog. Ah, it seems the Nogrod I'm used to finally makes an appearance, perpetually unhappy with the silent ones.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Anyhow I'm getting a feeling that lynching one of the three - almost the only contributors toDay - might be unwise indeed as soon this village will die into silence if these people are lynched and the (remaining) Faithfuls can roam free.

Nogrod, are you suggesting that we should consider lynching one of the "fly under the radar" types? I am tempted, but it would be risky indeed. They have been so quiet that there is nothing much to get a handle on which one (or more, I suppose) of them might be a Faithful. Of them, I am most concerned about Kitanna, for the reasons that I outlined earlier. Legate, I am undecided about, as I find it hard to read much from his posts, despite their length. That, in itself concerns me. I remain inclined to give Hookbill a chance to become more active (although didn’t he say that he would be more involved toDay?). As for Gil, well I don’t think that we are going to learn any more about him than we have already. A vote for him would be a shot in the dark, as far as I am concerned. We have a few Days left, as you pointed out earlier, but lynching one of these may be a luxury we cannot afford.

[Kitanna]

Mith, Legate, Lommy, and Lalaith were the last to vote for Brinniel. And of the four of them three (Mith, Lommy, and Lalaith) gave almost no reason. Mith didn't even give one.
So, looking at their posts from yesterday:

Lalaith~ After a few short posts finally voices some suspicions of Brinniel.

Brinniel - I’ve got very little experience of her. But the smooth dark-horse routine that others have commented on is a bit suspect. I don’t like the way that she seems to pick up the gauntlet Saucie throws down in post 336, voting for Rune almost as if she was dared to.

But this was put with every other villager and at the end of the post Lalaith declared Durelin her top suspect.
The post before her vote she states:

I don't think Rune is a wolf. None of my front-running suspects look like lynch prospects. So the way the voting is going, I will go for either Brinniel or Manwe, who are the most suspicious to me of the current prospects.

I don't understand why she let her top suspects fall off. Was it because they didn't look like they would garner any votes but her own? I don't like how Lalaith simply voted for Brinniel because she was just a "toss-up" between Manwe.

Mith~ After a few posts talking about Roa and the cobbler situation from the previous day, Mith puts out her suspicions:

I think it quite possible that Spm and Lalaith are faithful. But I still have a few pages to go.... Brinniel and Durelin are "inclined to suspect".

A few posts later she says this:

Well Brinniel seems to fit the profile fo a Flying Under the Radar-Wolf. Present, unremarkable on the surface, using novice status as a shield - not that she is alone. Hard to be specific but that kind of behavious makes me uneasy.... too uncontroversial.


As for Lalaith. She has seemed wrong since the beginning. Now normally we read each other well. This game I suspect her and she suspects me. I know I'm innocent....

After her vote for Lalaith Mith says:

I don't see why Rune is so suspicious.... Brinniel and Durelin seem more so.... may have to change my vote since noone agrees with me... :S rather help someone I suspect a bit lynched than let someone I don't suspect at all face the chop...

Then she changes her vote to Brinniel a bit later. If Mith is a faithful she knew Rune was not and clearly wasn't trying to save a fellow faithful. So why save him?
1) She is an innocent trying to save another villager she felt was innocent and so she jumped on the next most voted for player.
2) She is a faithful, thinking Rune will be killed at the end of the day and so changing her vote may make her look good.

Legate~ He only made two posts for the day, but in both Brinniel was mentioned as a suspect. I don't find his vote for her too odd.

Lommy~ At first Lommy suspects Durelin above most others. In her third post of the day she goes through the villagers and states an uneasiness about Brinniel, but others appear to have fallen higher on her suspicions (Durelin mainly). After reading Brinniel's post and suspicions of Rune Lommy states her own suspicions of Brinniel have been a bit eased. In the end she votes for Brinniel, possibly because she thinks Rune may be innocent.

Let's see here. Lalaith and Lommy both had Durelin as their top suspect, but decided to go with a moderate suspect instead. Mith felt Rune was truly innocent and most likely changed her vote to save him. Legate felt Brinniel suspicious, but his lack of posts yesterday is not much to go off of.

I find Lalaith and Lommy suspcious and I wouldn't be surprised to find them in cahoots. However, I think Mith is a bit more suspcious than those two. I'm unsure about Legate.

So in addition to Hookbill, I now think Mith, Lalaith, and Lommy could well be faithfuls.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

One more thing you're right about, SPM - the only case Nogrod ever had against me was based on my responses to his attacking me with my guilt preconceived. If you think that the fact that I won't ignore such an attack makes me guilty, then so be it.

Well, having looked back at his case against you, it was largely predicated on his misguided (or possibly, it now appears, tactical) suspicion of me. Then again, you were high in my suspicions before all that happened, so I am not going to take my eye of you.

Lommy’s vote for Durelin toDay interests me. I find both suspicious, but this looks to me to be a most unlikely Faithful-on-Faithful vote, particularly as she has said that she will not be returning later. Which leads me to think that, if Durelin is guilty, Lommy is most likely innocent. Then again, it might also have been the vote of a Faithful seizing upon the opportunity that Nogrod presented, with his case against Durelin.

My top suspects remain:

Lalaith
Durelin
Lommy
Kitanna

I am going to take a further look back at Lalaith.

[Lalaith]

Reading through the thread in its entirety took a lot longer than I thought it would. Sigh. There went my Sunday.

Anyway.
What I decided to do was look again at the people I was most uneasy about yesterday - Durelin, followed by Mith, guy and Saucie. I wanted to analyse more deeply where my original uneasiness about these people came from, and if it was justified. Also, to look at the rest of the village and see if I'd missed something. What follows is a bit sketchy, because I find that my notes are even more illegible than usual.

First thing. I'm sorry to return to cold vomit, as it were, but this business of Mith's first post.... Now, this wasn't actually the source of my uneasiness about Mith herself, at all. In fact, I quite understand why she was annoyed about the ensuing fuss. I know I was partly to blame, but at that time there was nothing else to talk about (we were the first 2 posters) and my comment was really just a "yes, but..." I was surprised that it escalated the way it did and I now note that the two who got most aggressively on her case were tgwbs and Durelin.
That bothers me. It's one of the things that makes me think there is a connection between those two, somehow.
Second thing about Guy - his inversion theory, re Roa's opinions. That is too crass for someone as clever as he is.
Durelin - when she wonders if the wolves "were that desperate to kill Rikae for some reason." Well, wolves are always desperate to kill the Seer. Why should she think these wolves would be more desperate? It's odd.

Now to Saucie. My uneasiness about him, I've realised, is that I get a constant feeling from his posts that he's trying to stitch people up rather than genuinely analyse to discover the truth, as a smart innocent should. There was the business of suspecting people who had not voted for Roa, and then suddenly suspecting people who did, even more.
And then his top suspects always seem to be innocents. On the first day it was Rikae and Noggie, then on the second (or third?) day he was "fairly sure" Rune and Brinniel were faithful, now his top suspects are myself and Lommy. I know I'm innocent - I don't know of course about Lommy but I strongly suspect her of being innocent.
Oh and Saucie, please, this is just plain insulting:

am certain that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and, since they have both been defending each other every so often, I wonder whether they both might be

Do you really think I would be such a crass Faithful as that?

And finally Mith- well, given that my deep uneasiness about guy and Durelin is partly down to them fussing about Mith's first post then I conclude that it's unlikely she could be a faithful alongside those two. I'm still worried about her but because I'm more uneasy about tgwbs and Durelin, I'm going to put her a bit further down the suspect list.

The rest of the village:
Hookbill - reading over his posts I've realised just how much he keeps apologising. I remember him as a wolf in WWIV and he was much the same, however this was his only other sortie into the game, so, maybe it's just his general style. I'm more uneasy about him than I was, however.
Legate - Conversely, I feel more easy about him having read his posts over. He is not quite as suave as I initially thought, and he seems to be trying hard to be helpful.
Kath I'm now feeling 50/50 torn about. Post 309 feels innocent to me - I like the fact she's trying to think outside the box on how to utilise innocents but 376 - her analysis of various players - seems to contain a few misreadings and misunderstandings which might be deliberate.
Kitanna - I still have very little idea.
Manwe - his temper tantrum leads me to think he might be innocent.

I still find Gil and Lommy the most innocent-seeming villagers, for the reasons I stated yesterday.

Oh and on a final note, I'd just like to defend the voting tactics that Guy and Durelin complained about. Personally, I am generally more confident in my hunches about who is innocent than my hunches about who is a wolf, so I often vote to save rather than to lynch. Eg, in this game I felt Garin and Rune were innocent so I voted for an alternative I was less sure about. On the other hand, if you are a player who is better at wolf-spotting, you will be voting to lynch. But we can debate about the benefits of these tactics further once the game is over....

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, some sensible comments there from Kitanna, which make me feel somewhat better about her.

You make a good point that the Faithfuls may have thought Rune a Gifted for his "Silly Sods" comment. And your thoughts concerning those last minute Brinniel voters largely mirror my own, although I still don't see Mith's actions so far as being those of a Faithful, from what I know of her.

[Mithalwen]

I am here .... and skim reading have clearly missed stuff..... will stay to the end providing there is a point..... ie we aren't rearranging the proverbial deckchairs

[Nogrod]

So just a few short points and then it's unfortunately back to reading a bunch of essays... I'll be back for the last hours though and try to make the best out of them.

Then I'm just crossing my fingers that the Ranger got my hint yesterDay when I repeated my security of being alive toDay such many times so that s/he did not protect me last Night and I might still have one Day more in this game as on Tuesday I would actually have time to play more than toDay...

Spm: He behaved exactly as I thought. That unhappily doesn't prove anything. With him I was probably more after the reactions of the others. Unfortunately there were next to none of those. The whole row between Spm and Durelin about whether Durelin defended Spm or not looks interesting though. I will not erase Spm from my list of suspicion but neither do I see myself voting for him or encouraging anyone to lynch him toDay.

tgwbs: I think was even more uptight than I thought he would be. He clearly tried to keep up a composed manner but somehow I got the feeling that he was overdoing it somewhat. Comments like:

Originally Posted by tgwbs

I have the third highest post count among the living villagers, and have been offering analyses every day.

just sound pretty bad to my ears at least. Also I must say that his vote on Gil-Galad looks to me the most unfortunate from the standpoint of the innocents. I do share his annoyance with the playing style of Gil but I'm not sure if we are having the luxury of testing the silent ones out anymore if we don't get a few Faithfuls off first...

Durelin: Her reactions were a bit confusing. Her tenor of almost hurt feelings and her open distaste regarding the way I played looked somewhat sincere. But then again that is a good tactics as well. I kind of thought she was slipping once or twice in our little "conversation" earlier toDay but there are points to balance them as well. I would suspect her a bit less than tgwbs at the moment. Which isn't a great relief to her but anyhow...

Others:

Gil jumped to my open suspicion very easily - like he did yesterDay too. With one appearance / Day where he just states that "as Nogrod suspects X, I'll vote him" I would be quite ready to vote him out just as a matter of principle. But I'm not sure that we can afford that as it will be somewhat totally random vote and there are still enough innocents to make the probabilities pretty bad for such a check. Here I disagree with tgwbs again and think he's up to no good...

Lommy also took my rant with Durelin in pretty too easily. She had analysed her earlier and come to a conclusion that she didn't actually have any points against her but still took my suspicions as they were and went with them. Lommy is a clever player and she might use things like this to her advantage. Although it must be said to her defence that she had to leave early and was forced to vote on that time and there was little time for her to make any major inquieries in the morning (RL).

EDIT: X'd from Kitanna...

[Nogrod]

One thing I'm a bit concerned with now (I haven't yet read everything that I crossposted with but feel this needs stating).

I can't see any special suspiciousness in the fact that in the last moments of the Day people need to consider their votes also from the viewpoint of who can actually be lynched. On the contrary! I tend to regard people who stick to their personal ideas in a tight situation and thence not take a stance much more suspicious "safe-voters" who don't dirt their hands in actual decisions.

[the guy who be short]

Nogrod - How do you expect me to react to accusations that are more insulting than useful? My comment about my posting and analysing was in reply to this:

Originally Posted by Nogrof

It's good to see you and Spm so helpful toDay! Time to make an impression?

Seeing you imply that I have been lying low these last few days when I've spent so much time analysing every single villager is going to provoke a reaction.

Lal - re Roa inversion. I think it impossible that a Cobbler would accuse somebody they think to be a wolf. About their innocent feelings, they might be more honest, but they have no interest in accusing potential-wolves.

Kitanna - I don't understand your analysis of Mith. You think she voted to save an innocent rune, yet you find her more suspicious than Lommy and Lalaith?

[Nogrod]

Good post Lalaith! I hope you'd had time to contribute like that earlier.

As far as now I've moved Lalaith quite a long way down in my list of suspicion and at least at this hour would strongly advise not to vote her toDay but to possibly pay heed to some of her points.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Nogrod - How do you expect me to react to accusations that are more insulting than useful?

I'm very sorry if you took them that way as that was in no way my intention. I do apologise in that case.

But I think that in general the little exercise cleared at least my thoughts a bit - although not even nearly so much I hoped as people other than you yhree seemed to not post back then...