WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[mormegil]

Also, why if morm is innocent am I a Duck?

Do I sense fear?

It doesn't automatically make you a Duck all the others have said is that it makes you suspicious. You've voted three times now for innocents at stages when it could be viewed as a subtle attempt to save the guilty. Three times is a lot and not easily attributed to back luck or poor judgement, but then again it could be, but personally I doubt it.

[Nogrod]

It's the1st of May - and some of you know, it's the workers partytime here in Europe. I belong to a choir that performs at this kind of festivities. We had two gags today and a party after that. I know, this is the worst day of my WW-history: it's 12.30 (AM) already, and I will have work tomorrow.

But just some preliminaries, before I will have to vote. And I surely hope to be alive tomorrow, to get involved in to the game once more...

I still suspect Lote - as I did yesterday. Nice to see at least Mith taking her eye on her too. She's a newbie, surely she is - and would give her all the benefit of doubt, but just look at how she votes and how she explains them...

Secondly I have not lost my suspicion on Morm. He seems to be playing very craftly - and I will not be doubling here the points brought forwards by Spm - and I think I have raised some genuine suspicions on him too myself. Not the least because of the list he made as a first thing on the day2 (it conveniently left him among the now known innocents - which was not clear then).

But Morm's case against Kath is surely worth looking at too. The voting record seems pretty bad.

I still have some faith in Mith - and that would leave me to believe in Spm too (even though there seems to be a chance there - as well as in the case of the dream of me - they both are about the rate of 1/14, so you can just come up with the possibility yourselves) - and thence Valier.

With these possibilities, I find Morm suspecting both me and Spm (entertaining those possibilities as a tactics) guite suspicious...

EDIT: X-posted with Kath & MOrm

[Cailín]

For now I choose to trust Mormegil, because it doesn't seem likely to me he was the first Night's attack. He was one of the people under fire the first day, so it wouldn't make sense the ducks would attack him. Though he could be a duck from the start..

I still believe Mithalwen is the Owl, so that makes her, SpM and Valier innocents.

So that leaves me with Nogrod, Kath and Lote..

The most suspicious at the moment is Kath, mainly the fact that she didn't vote on Spawn after Glirdan said he was the Owl. Spawn turned out to be a Duck.
And yesterday when people started voting on Jenny she voted on Mormegil, Jenny turned out to be a duck aswell. So,

++ Kath

[Nogrod]

Oh, and just to come back with this confusion of yesterday. I don't think we can come up with much of it - it should be seen though. There might be something...

I think, most of us saw Mith's case as a genuine one - as I do still look at it. Then Glirdy's announcement took us with a blow. But there was a good case to check his revealment, as he offered us a duck (unlike Mith) - and it turned out to be one. Glirdy's revealment was somewhat too careful anyhow - giving us a duck (that another duck would know - and after hearing, that they were one more after the night - would be bold enough to risk it), but only an already revealed innocent (Spm).

Anyhow: if Mith is a duck, she would be certain enough to reveal only real innocents... I hope we don't lose this scenario from our minds, even though I believe her to be true as for now.

Lote's vote for Mith might be genuine, but anyhow, as it was given at a critical moment, when no-one knew, how the things would turn out, and as it was against our common good - checking the duck-revealment by Glirdy - it could be seen as a trial to wrench the vote... I'm quite near to vote for her again tonight... But just a second.

[Kath]

I'm confused because the suspicion over me seems to centre on the fact that I didn't vote for spawn when Glirdan 'revealed' himself. I didn't believe him and so didn't follow him. I chose to vote morm because he looked far more suspicious to me.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I find Morm suspecting both me and Spm (entertaining those possibilities as a tactics) guite suspicious...

Nogrod, I think you are quite missing the point of what I am saying. I am not saying that either of you are Ducks; rather I am merely saying that either of you could be Ducks. There is a distinct difference. I choose to look on the realistic side of things and therefore say that neither of you are known innocents. While it's quite probable that you both are I don't want the game to come down to the end and people continue to assume that you are innocent when in fact there exist the chance that you are not.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

It will be easier to pick the last duck (if she isn't) amid people who have really contributed thanhave someone who has posted so little in the mix.

Indeed. Another good point against Lote. The village is getting quieter and quieter by the day. Without much to choose between a number of possible Ducks, I think that the village is best served by keeping the more talkative villagers, in preference to the quieter ones.

And I still find the case against Lote to be the most compelling. Her vote for Nilp on Day 1 is explicable either by her (wrongly) seeing it as a safe Duck-on-Duck vote or by her not in fact being a Duck at that time and only becoming one that Night.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lote's vote for Mith might be genuine, but anyhow, as it was given at a critical moment, when no-one knew, how the things would turn out, and as it was against our common good - checking the duck-revealment by Glirdy - it could be seen as a trial to wrench the vote...

This looks quite likely to me, particularly given JennyH's reaction to the Mith/Glirdan situation. I think that the Ducks wanted to try to get Mith lynched yesterday.

My mind is made up.

++ LOTE22

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kath

I'm confused because the suspicion over me seems to centre on the fact that I didn't vote for spawn when Glirdan 'revealed' himself. I didn't believe him and so didn't follow him. I chose to vote morm because he looked far more suspicious to me.

It's more than just that Kath, your other votes look highly suspicous if viewed in the light of my innocence. Now I am the only one with any certainty as to my guilt or innocence so naturally I see you as highly suspicious. Oh yes another thing that came to my mind, my typo that you brought up earlier seemed a bit pedantic and was contrived to 'fuel the fire' so to speak. If you look at the title maundering mage I choose my name carefully because I believe it to be true. I am not as articulate in speech and do not make a habit of proof reading, perhaps I should as it would be of profit in general not to mention WW but I maunder again.

I'm really not sure about Lote and therefore I will vote for Kath as I agree that generally Cailin seems innocent and despite what Nogrod thinks I assume that SpM and he are innocent though I don't give them known status. Valier and Mith are obviously innocent.

++Kath

[Nogrod]

Oh my!

Aren't we now missing something? Glirdy gave us a duck - and by the last night's narration, was an innocent himself (so not a duck, but either a fool villager or a gifted - an Owl)? So why would a villager pretend to be an Owl in that situation? Or how could he trustt the foull-play, and get the duck right by pure chance (being an goose, so not knowing the identities of others)?

Maybe Glirdan was true?

But what does this make of Mith then? I duly understand, that I am one of the involved, but a duck's revealment - giving us all those innocents which she would truly know as a duck - would really credit her. And I see, both me and Spm being quite strong about this, tending to believe her as she has granted our innocence (well not perfectly, but still). And wouldn't that be the most genious way of a duck-play? She revealed us only on day2 - and as a duck, she would have known the situation (one duck more) already, and come to think of it?

As I just came to see this, I will have to reconsider my vote (I already pointed this possibility in my first post of today, but only now started to see it more clearly). On this basis, I will strongly think of voting Mith today.

EDIT: X-posted with the 4 last ones...

[mormegil]

Nogrod don't forget that Glirdan could be a goose as could, quite franky, Mith. But we will not know if they are a goose or not upon their death. The assumption is that Glirdan was a goose and lucky. I would not advise in voting for Mith. Sadly she will probably die tonight unless we get the last duck today.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Nogrod don't forget that Glirdan could be a goose as could, quite franky, Mith. But we will not know if they are a goose or not upon their death. The assumption is that Glirdan was a goose and lucky. I would not advise in voting for Mith. Sadly she will probably die tonight unless we get the last duck today.

But why should he have tried that, if he was the goose? Think of the possibilities getting the duck right? Try to make our last duck right now, and you see, it's not easy - and it was harder then...

So a suicidal act - if he was a goose! (Had Spawn not been a duck, he would have been lynched immediately) That's my point now.

Prove my thoughts wrong bwefore I have to vote! I'm tired and anyhow somewhat distressed. I can't think it clearer than this by now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Or how could he trustt the foull-play, and get the duck right by pure chance (being an goose, so not knowing the identities of others)?

My guess is that Glirdan the Goose was trying not to name a Duck, but stumbled across one by mistake. If a Goose masquerading as an Owl names a Duck as an innocent, that Duck is hardly likely to complain. The only way he could be caught out is if the real Owl has dreamed of the Duck he names as innocent. But, assuming (which I do) that she is the real Owl, Mith had already revealed all that she knew.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And wouldn't that be the most genious way of a duck-play?

I really cannot see that it would have been in a Duck's interests to masquerade as an Owl at that point. It would have invited almost certain death within days. No, if Glirdan's claim was true, then Mith is most likely the Goose.

But, to my mind, all the evidence points towards Mith being the Owl. The possibility that she's not cannot, I suppose be discounted. In which case, we would have no known innocents at all. But, for now, I prefer to go with the more likely scenario.

[mormegil]

I cannot prove your points one way or another. The arguement is moot. Mithalwen is alive and seems to be an owl. I tend to think that Glirdan may have been an owl too. The difficulty in accepting Glidan as an owl is the third dream. How could he not have dreamt? Nogrod I would go under the assumption that Mith is no Duck, she would be a goose at worst. Mith is very clever and smart but not a great bluffer and I doubt that she could pull off such a tactic as a Duck pretending to be an owl.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

But, to my mind, all the evidence points towards Mith being the Owl. The possibility that she's not cannot, I suppose be discounted. In which case, we would have no known innocents at all. But, for now, I prefer to go with the more likely scenario.

I agree with you about this, but that's just the thing that discomforts me in the first place (not so much agreeing with you, but feeling so trusting about Mith myself )...

But thank's, you gave me some answers. That scenario is credible - as is the one I proposed (sadly).

EDIT: X-posted with Morm

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So a suicidal act - if he was a goose!

Isn't that kind of the point of being a Goose? To help the Ducks, even if that means his own death. My guess is that he thought spawn was innocent and that getting her lynched was worth his own death.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Isn't that kind of the point of being a Goose? To help the Ducks, even if that means his own death. My guess is that he thought spawn was innocent and that getting her lynched was worth his own death.

But that was only day2! Would the goose be so hasty & hazardous?

Anyhow, I think I wiil not vote for Mith today. And I'm beginning to trust Morm a bit too - even if that is just what a duck-Morm would like me to do. Please Mith: if you are an Owl, dream him, and give us your credit on him - even though we should not forget your possible status - but you can't lie here (if you are the last duck - if you are the goose, you will be vewry bold, and just so great!). So funny this is, sometimes...

I'll have to consider between Lote & Kath now - and see the overall voting.

[Nogrod]

Mith --> Lote (Lote 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Lote 1, Kath 1)
Spm --> Lote (Lote 2, Kath 1)
Morm --> Kath (Lote 2, Kath 2)

I see that my case against Lote is far less convincing than Morm's about Kath...

[Kath]

I have to go to bed now. I don't want to vote for Lote, I still think she's innocent, but in the interest of saving my own life:

++LOTE

[Nogrod]

Well. This is just maddening...

I have my doubts on Lote still - as I had yesterday, but now I will believe more on Morm's case against Kath (her voting patterns seem to be quite disconcerting indeed).

I truly know, that by this, I will be leaving the choice to you others. Sorry. I will be more thoughtful tomorrow, if that ever shines on me. Mith's death during the night would clear things out, but I would happily see someone else dead by tomorrow morning.

++ Kath

[Nogrod]

Mith --> Lote (Lote 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Lote 1, Kath 1)
Spm --> Lote (Lote 2, Kath 1)
Morm --> Kath (Lote 2, Kath 2)
Kath --> Lote (Lote 3, Kath 2)
Nogrod --> Kath (Lote 3, Kath 3)

Good night to you all!

[mormegil]

Valier are you voting?

[Valier]

Sorry I just got back on here...I was planning on voting, Why?

[Valier]

AAAAHHHH There's only myself and Lote22 left to vote right? I don't know! I am torn on who to vote for! Anyone else out there? I need village support for this one.....

[mormegil]

Because it seems that you will be the deciding vote.

[mormegil]

Well I think you know how everybody feels and you will need to make a decision because if you don't vote now and Lote votes before you she will make the decision and frankly I'd rather you make the decision.

[Valier]

Ok well I guess there's no point in me waiting to vote. So I have thought it over and even though I suspect Kath, I have given some thought on Lote22. She is a newbie, but her sister has played well in werewolf games in the past and I tend to think she shares strategy and game play with her, so her being so quiet does seem odd. After all of this madness she has said little.... Her votes too are weird. I will let Kath go for today, I think.....My I not be wrong and we catch us the last Duck!!


++Lote22
*Crosses fingers and toes*

[Diamond18]

Not much point in waiting arond for Lote. Death will be up shortly.

Lote: IIII (Mith, SpM, Kath, Valier)

Kath: III (Cailín, Morm, Nogrod)

[Diamond18]

The village was torn between Lote and Kath, both quiet members of the village, and for a while it was anyone’s guess who would die.

“I’m innocent,” Kath maintained, “that elven idleponce is out to get me!”

“I’m not sure...” mused Mithalwen. “But Lote does seem very suspicious. I think we should kill her.”

“Well I don’t think she’s evil, but better her than me,” said Kath. “I am young and sweet and I love rainbows.” She proceeded to frolic in the meadow and catch rainbows to demonstrate her pureness of heart. “Look,” she said, pointing at a rainbow in the sky, “seven colors. The world is diminishing.”

“That’s deep,” said The Saucepan Man. “She must be innocent! I’m with Mith, we should kill Lote instead.”

“Yeah, right,” Morm scoffed. “Don’t let that innocent, rainbow loving girl exterior fool you, she’s the beast!”

Not-Cailín nodded. “I think he’s right. Kill Kath!”

“Oh, this is not good for my health,” said Nogrod. “I simply can’t decide. Ummmm....”

“La de da de dah, I love butterflies!” sang Kath.

“Clearly she’s evil,” Morm shook his head in exasperation.

“And wildflowers, and puppies, and babbling brooks! Girls in white dresses with blue satin sashes, snowflakes that melt on my nose and eyelashes. Silver white winters that melt into springs, these are a few of my favorite things!”

“Okay, that’s it,” Nogrod decided, “she’s evil.”

“Wait,” said Valier. “I think not. I say we kill Lote.” She lifted her axe and added, “Right. Umm... where is she?”

The villagers went in search of Lote, and found her in her igloo factory, busy making igloos. “Um, Lote,” Mithalwen tapped her on her shoulder. “We’ve come to kill you.”

Lote didn’t even look up. “Not now, I’m busy.”

“Don’t you have anything say for yourself before we off you?” asked the Saucepan Orc.

“You’re standing in my light.”

“Oh, I’m sorry,” he shuffled out of the way.

“And close the door, you’ll melt my igloos!”

“Oops,” said Kath, and shut the door. “So, shall we?”

“Yes, let’s,” agreed Valier.

They seized Lote, who sputtered angrily about being interrupted, and carried her over to the Ice-O-Matic 2000™. “I have work to do!” she protested, but it was in vain. They put her in the tub of water, clamped down the lid, and set the dial to Deep Freeze. (Other options include Light Chill, A Bit Nippy, Bitterly Cold, and You’ll Freeze Your Gahoonies Off.)

In a moment, the indicator light turned green with a cheery little ding, and they opened the lid. Inside was a perfect block of ice, with a blue Lote encased inside, her mouth frozen open in the eternal ‘O’ of a disgruntled artist.

~~~~~~~~~

~ The Dead ~

Diamond Took, the Halfling Poet ~ Villager ~ Pecked to death on Night 1
Nilpaurion Felagund the Elven Pigeon-Summoning Ninja ~ Wereduck ~ Waxed on, waxed off on Day 1
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Spider Loving Orcish Astronaut ~ Wereduck ~ Stuffed full of spiders and choked to death on Day 2
Elu Ancalime the Didgeridoo Dwarf ~ Villager ~ Struck by Mod Fire from above on Day 2
Lalaith the Halfling Chubb Fuddler ~ Villager ~ Boiled, mashed, and cooked in a stew on Night 3
Roa Aoife the Batwoman ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but rejoined her regiment on Day 3
Sleepy Ranger the Exiled Jedi Master ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but departed with a droid on Day 3
JennyHallu the Halfling Mountaintop Guru ~ Wereduck ~ Pitchforked to death on Day 3
Anguirel the Baritone Bird Catcher ~ Hawk ~ Gunned down with an M16 on Night 4
Glirdan the Entish Tree Herder ~ Villager ~ Consumed by flames from the Hawk’s cigarette lighter on Night 4
Lote22 the Elven Igloo Maker ~ Villager ~ Encased in a block of ice on Day 4

~ The Living ~

Mithalwen the Elven Saggar Maker's Bottom Knocker
Saucepan Man the Orcish Scarecrow
Mormegil the Elven Idleman
Valier the Dwarven Millet Spray Picker
Nogrod the Dwarven Personal Fitness Instructor
Kath the Rainbow Catcher
Cailín the Bird-portraitist

[Diamond18]

The morning of the fifth day dawned bright and clear, but that was the only thing about the whole situation that was bright or clear. The villagers were considerably less in number than when the horrors had begun, and it didn’t take long to assess who was and was not present. Mithalwen had not come to the village trapezoid, and so they went with heavy hearts to her home. They searched the house and could not find her, so they went to her workshop, or rather, the saggar maker’s workshop, where she was employed. It’s not like there was a saggar maker in the village, but no one ever really thought about that oddity too much.

Other than the various tools of the trade, they found the place conspicuously empty. Where could Mith have gone off to?

But then, they discovered another note taped to a vermilion colored ceramic jar. It read:

I have discovered a new way to make pottery glaze. It’ll be all the rage.
Signed, the Duck

The villagers gasped, realizing the hideous truth: Mithalwen was the glaze!

~~~~~~~~~

~ The Dead ~

Diamond Took, the Halfling Poet ~ Villager ~ Pecked to death on Night 1
Nilpaurion Felagund the Elven Pigeon-Summoning Ninja ~ Wereduck ~ Waxed on, waxed off on Day 1
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Spider Loving Orcish Astronaut ~ Wereduck ~ Stuffed full of spiders and choked to death on Day 2
Elu Ancalime the Didgeridoo Dwarf ~ Villager ~ Struck by Mod Fire from above on Day 2
Lalaith the Halfling Chubb Fuddler ~ Villager ~ Boiled, mashed, and cooked in a stew on Night 3
Roa Aoife the Batwoman ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but rejoined her regiment on Day 3
Sleepy Ranger the Exiled Jedi Master ~ Villager ~ Not dead, but departed with a droid on Day 3
JennyHallu the Halfling Mountaintop Guru ~ Wereduck ~ Pitchforked to death on Day 3
Anguirel the Baritone Bird Catcher ~ Hawk ~ Gunned down with an M16 on Night 4
Glirdan the Entish Tree Herder ~ Villager ~ Consumed by flames from the Hawk’s cigarette lighter on Night 4
Lote22 the Elven Igloo Maker ~ Villager ~ Encased in a block of ice on Day 4
Mithalwen the Elven Saggar Maker's Bottom Knocker ~ Villager ~ Melted down and made into pottery glaze on Night 5

~ The Living ~

Saucepan Man the Orcish Scarecrow
Mormegil the Elven Idleman
Valier the Dwarven Millet Spray Picker
Nogrod the Dwarven Personal Fitness Instructor
Kath the Rainbow Catcher
Cailín the Bird-portraitist

[mormegil]

Well that's no surprise .

Can anybody give me any reason as to why we shouldn't lynch Kath?

[Valier]

Grrrrrrr!!! I guess I was totally expecting that! I see no reason not to vote for Kath today. I am sorry now that I didn't vote for her yesterday, but I decided to go with Mith on that one. I should have gone with my gut and killed Kath! (Stupid me) We need to narrow down the list of innocents today and catch us the last Duck!

[Nogrod]

Surely no surprise this one...

But this seems to give us one possible good news, as it seems, that the goose is also dead. So five villagers against one duck. That should mean, that we have two chances to win this one, today and tomorrow.

We have three known innocents and three unknowns. So with two lynches, it is 2/3. We could make it. But that means some real investigation into the cases of Kath, Morm and Cailin. And surely, if you wish, to mine. I know, I haven't changed into anything featherd the second night. But as we all know, that can be proven only with my death.

[mormegil]

My guess about Kath's behavior today will be that she'll be quiet and cautious so as to not arouse suspicion but will poke and prod a bit here and there on the most common alternative 'non-Kath' theory. I would love somebody to give us another analysis of Kath, that way people will know that it's not slanted by me; in fact I'd love to see two that way I would know that at least two innocent did the analysis, one of the others and me.

As far as Cailin goes, I'm fairly convinced of Cailin's and non-Cailin's innocence, but of course we should give her the once over too. I'm glad you admit, Nogrod, that there is a possibility that you are a Duck but also we need to keep in mind that there is a slight chance SpM is too. Now I would save that analysis for tomorrow if we don't get the duck today. I would love to see SpM, Valier and Kath go over my posts as well as the other two but particularly those three.

[Valier]

Well I am off to bed now. I can't promise an analysis of any value to others, since I don't work that way, but I will definately look over all that has been written when I get up tomorrow. I would like to hear from Kath and Cailin by then. Till the morrow then.

[Nogrod]

As I walked back home from school (takes almost an hour), I had time to think a little this Owl/goose -stuff that bothered me a bit already earlier. And I must admit being a bit more anguished by it now. And as we will have at most two chances to win this game, I don't think we can afford leaving any stones unturned.

Assuming we didn't have two Owls - or any other miraculous things going on (someone given an extra-dream etc.), then it should be clear that of our two owl-candidates, one was the owl, the other was the goose. No ordo would start that kind of game.

We have quite all accepted Mith as the owl, and Glirdy as the goose. I admit, having somewhat being of that opinion too. But now I'm not so sure anymore (not meaning, I'm sure the otherway-around is true).

If we look at both of them, one at the time, as Owls, they both make sense. Mith was coming under some attacks and she was facing her bedtime. If she would not react, she might just wake up in the morning, finding out herself dead - and two dreams of innocents lost from the village, possibly a third one with the Nitghtingale's help.

But Glirdy then? He had a dream of an actual duck. In the case of his death at night (you never know) we would have lost all the dreams (one duck, one innocent) and would be left in the hands of a false Owl (by that time it was a possibility that Mith might even be a very bold duck). In a game where the giftedness is not revealed in death, the life of an Owl is much harder - and I believe, revealing just one duck could be wiser than to risk losing it altogether.

Both acted a bit strangely, as their giftedness was questioned. But surely Glirdy failing to dream the next night was the weirdest thing. It was just so astonishing, that it might even be thought of as a genuine failure to dream?

But the problems arise, when we start thinking about the goosiness of these two. So let's see both of them as a goose this time.

Glirdy as goose seems to me just totally insane character. What possible thing might he had in mind? If he tried us to disbelieve Mith's annoucement, he took the hardest (and the most unprobable) way possible. He decided just to guess for a duck! From the village then, he had a chance of 1/5, and had he missed, he would be dead himself the next day.

Mith as a goose seems much more effective. As she was only revealing innocents, she could hope to hit a duck eventually. Well: the best gift a goose could give to the ducks would be taking the position of the Owl and manage to declare a duck innocent! That would be fantastic indeed...

Well I have some more thoughts about how this could affect our current situation. I'll come to them in a moment.

[Nogrod]

If we can all assure ourselves, that Mith was the Owl and Glirdy the goose. Then it would seem "bussiness as usual".

And we would have an overall scheme about the following:
Valier - dreamed innocent
Spm - dreamed innocent (very high probability)
Nogrod - dreamed innocent (high probability)

Cailin/non-Cailin - not suspected much
Morm - suspected / not suspected
Kath - highly suspected

But if we come to think of Mith as the goose, the situation changes, taking one of the dreamed ones out of the list. It does not mean, that one of the dreamt ones is a duck, but it opens that possibility. Now then: it would not be Spm, as he was backed by Glirdy too (if Mith is a goose, then Glirdy is the right Owl). I know, it wouldn't be me, as I have not changed. That would then move Valier to my list of possible ducks.

That leads to the reasons / motivations, why the goose-Mith was killed?

Firstly, it's possible, that the duck was afraid of being caught as a duck (believing Mith the owl). That would mean, that the dreamt of's are all innocents.

Secondly, the duck might have thought of Mith as the goose, but as she seemed not to get any ducks on the lineup of innocents, she had to be stopped before she got too many innocents revealed. That also leaves all the dreamt of's innocent.

Thirdly, and most anguishly, the duck might have just gotten to the list, and decided to stop it to the best place possible. As the least suspected person, Valier could basically secure herself alive after tomorrows lynch (three left), and thence win the game. If either I or Spm would have been the duck, we should have killed her earlier, not to bring too many innocents to spoil our game.

I'm not saying, that Valier is the duck. I'm just pointing out, that if the case Mith is rethought (as I see possible, even though not as evident), then Valier could be one of our real suspects. That's because: I know, that only she can be the duck from us three dreamt of's, and because her place on the list fits Mith's death only today, and is the best possible for sealing the victory.

I would like to hear your comments on this Owl/goose thing today.

I will promise to look at Kath's earlier posting more closely today. But a bit later.

[Kath]

I simply don't understand why I'm under all this suspicion. If you're all determined to think of me as a Duck then ok, but please tell me why.

Nogrod's theory about Mith being the Goose rather than the Owl is intruiging, but she was just too convincing to me. I don't think she could have kept the act up so calmly.

It also seems that I'm not allowed to give any suspicions of my own, as morm has dictated how I will play toDay. So now if I follow the pattern I'm a Duck and if I don't I'm trying not to, and so am a Duck.

Still, I think out of the unknowns Cailin looks innocent leaving, to me, morm as the last Duck. At least, lets hope it's the last, Diamond's already given us one surprise!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kath

It also seems that I'm not allowed to give any suspicions of my own, as morm has dictated how I will play toDay. So now if I follow the pattern I'm a Duck and if I don't I'm trying not to, and so am a Duck.

I do agree with you Kath, that Morm's "pre-analysis" was kind of nasty way of putting things forwards. It hasn't at least lessened my suspicions of him. For good or for evil, he seems to be set to lynch Kath - and if Kath turns out to be innocent, then I'm probably the next. And if he is the duck indeed, I must congratulate him, if he succeeds. But as I said, we must consider all believable possibilities today.

That's why I would like to hear your assesments concerning the possibility of Mith being the goose. I'm not saying she is, but I do not think, her not-being a goose is self evident - as seems to be the general tone around now.

I hope someone will make an analysis on Morm today - as at least I have promised to look for Kath's posts. Funny though: Morm quite openly declared not wishing me to analyse him...

[Nogrod]

Just a short one.

How about, if we did have two Owls after all? Diamond, who gave us an extra duck to handle with, could have thought of making two Owls also - as a recompense (quite a recompense it has been! ).

I mean: she said there would be a surprise that we would have to find out (the finder would be honoured in the "awards" - so it has to be something someone can work out from the thread - not something that the mod just announces). Adding an extra-duck is not something, that someone could find out by her/himself. But the presence of two Owls (or one right and one false) could be something, someone might come to see?

What bothers me, is that they were both quite believable as Owls, but Glirdan just totally unbelievable as a goose - and Mith would have been the most bold and daring goose one could imagine!

So two owls? What say you?

We would again be with the list of Kath, Morm & Cailin (and some slight possibilities for me and Spm).

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Morm quite openly declared not wishing me to analyse him...

Originally Posted by Mormegil

I would love to see SpM, Valier and Kath go over my posts as well as the other two but particularly those three.

How do you figure?

Originally Posted by Kath

It also seems that I'm not allowed to give any suspicions of my own, as morm has dictated how I will play toDay.

Originally Posted by Mormegil

My guess about Kath's behavior today will be that she'll be quiet and cautious so as to not arouse suspicion but will poke and prod a bit here and there on the most common alternative 'non-Kath' theory.

How does this dictate your behavior? In fact it does not but your response to it was exactly what I thought it would elicit. You are trying to build a buffer for you suspicious behavior today by glancing it on me. I gave my guess as to how you would act...Nogrod has fallen for you story it seems.

Kath your voting record is markedly guilty, you find trivial matters and try and use them against others, me ususually, and do it at a time when you can add fuel to the mormegil fire. I don't have enough time currently to do a thorough analysis but I feel I've done it on you over the past days anyway.

Where is SpM?