Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Nerwen]

Eomer has been making a lot of cryptic statements today, hasn’t he? I wish he’d explain them.

[McCaber]

I need to get to bed soon, but I've been making a lot of posts toDay and haven't been suspecting anyone. I think it's time to change that.

Kath is still playing, but barely. I have to feel that a wolf would be more active than two posts on Day 1 and nothing since. For lack of evidence to the contrary, she's in my innocent category. But if she doesn't vote toDay she'll be dead regardless.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, is in the same sort of state I am where she's posting without contributing much. I don't much like this post of hers, because she's pulling what I'd say was an honest mistake from Agan and trying to pin it as deliberately misleading. I have to reserve judgment for now, but we'll see what she does toDay.

I'm also not that big a fan of Firefoot or Lottie, but most of that could just be their laser focus on such a small number of people.

[satansaloser2005]

Sally sat alone and confused. With all of this death, and so much chatter about who may have done these horrible things, what hope did she have of helping solve the problem? Some even suspected her of perpetrating these crimes, as ridiculous a notion as that was, and she knew she had done precious little to convince them otherwise. Sally sighed, clutching her head in her hands and grumbling about headaches. She knew there was little she could do in her current situation. She had time now, certainly, but with an incoming attack from real life she couldn't escape, she would once again be limited in her ability to assist her friends. How could she help them?

And then, as Sally sometimes does, she began to sing to herself.

~~~~

I know I’ve been a little absent
A lot has already been said
What can I add to the discussion?
Or rather, what could I bring to the thread?

Not that you’ve been lying
But there’s more you could be doing
They could keep on trying
Or you could set up a shoe-in
You have an idea
You know what you’re thinking
What you need to do

I won’t reveal
I won’t give up the game

You’re never there
Why not ++ your name?

It's way too soon
I won't tell them my role

I still think maybe I can do this
I started with a good post count
But posting while at work won’t happen
Not without wanting to tear my eyes out

You can’t keep delaying
With no info, what will happen?
And if you keep playing
When will you have time for napping?
Level with the village
They could use the knowledge
Girl, you got to -have to- spill

They have no proof
They can’t know I’m a-

It’s too late now
Give it up, you’re a-

I want to play
I won’t tell them my role

When do you post?
Do your most
Share your role

Not gonna lie
Is it worth it?
Don’t want to die
Is it worth it?

Just let them know
That this lynch doesn’t count

At least in prose
I won’t tell them my role

~~~~

With a heavy sigh, Sally strolled off into the night in search of a certain unnamed someone. <3

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Unless both the lovers are dead, in which case if Nog is a lover than so is either phantom, Rune, or Greenie. If Nog wasn't a lover, than any two of the others could be the pair.

Trust me, honey, I know these things.

[Loslote]

Alright, I'm finally back and back for good - my schedule is now free for the foreseeable future! I'll respond to a couple of things quickly, and then get down to more of my own thoughts in a later post.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

On Lottie

...

#220 - Votes Nog. It's clear now that she did cross with Phantom, so at the time it's assumed she was placing the second vote on Nog. It's worth noting that there was indeed a big upswing in support for voting Nog at this time; Eomer, Phantom, Sally, and myself had mentioned possibly voting for him at this point.

I did cross with tp, just to clear that up.

Next day...

#250 - Defends Sally against Morm, regarding Sally's theory on a Runewolf being picked off last night. On rereading, it does seem a bit jumpy of Morm to come out so strongly against Sally there. I may have to look at him next, time permitting. Regarding Lottie herself, she says she's suspicious of Morm here. Nothing really jumps out at me.

...

- strikes me as a bit hypocritical, though. Weren't you just talking in rather certain terms about why the wolves would make any particular kill? I can't decide if Lottie actually, innocently suspects Morm for this or if she's reaching for any reason to for its own sake.

#296 - Votes morm.

Even if I were a wolf, I wouldn't have to reach for reasons. There are two packs, after all. Anyway, I did suspect morm - I still do, to some extent, though I think there are much more fruitful lines of questioning to pursue toDay than there were yesterDay - primarily because he dismissed Sally's suggestion that the wolves killed Rune because they suspected he was a rival wolf so out of hand and adamantly. I did consider it less likely that the wolves had considered Rune to be Gifted than that they had considered him to be a rival, but only after serious consideration. Morm rejected it as impossible immediately - or at least, that is how I interpreted his posts. That immediate dismissal is what I found to be suspicious, if that helps clarify for you where I was coming from.

Throughout most of this readthrough I was thinking Lottie looked pretty innocent. It wasn't until I got down to the end where I noticed a discrepancy and began to second-guess myself where she's concerned. However, I feel uncomfortable voting for her since she's already said she likely won't be back today, and I could use some clarification on one or two things she's said, so I won't necessarily be voting for her today.

I tried to clear my thought process up in the paragraph above, let me know if you have any other questions!

Originally Posted by Nerwen

We can’t ask about *all* the Dead. We need to pick one, or at most two, people at a time and have some way for the Dead to indicate they *haven’t* checked our selection. I think the first thing is to decide whose alignment we most want to know, and work from there.

We have fifteen Living and eight Dead. Couldn't we just assign two Living players to each Dead player, one to be given an extra vote in the case that their assigned Dead player was revealed to be predator and the other to be given an extra vote if that player was revealed to be prey? Since we have one too few Living toDay, we can assign the last possible result to the case that there is no extra vote granted, since the Dead have tied their vote. That way the Dead don't have to wait for us to vote, and we can receive their message loud and clear no matter how the voting goes down on our side.

Edit: xed with Sally! o.O

[satansaloser2005]

I distinctly need to get to bed. I'll be back in the morning with a fresh brain and will read and respond as I catch up (again).

[McCaber]

So sally, you being one of our pair of lovers, are you volunteering to walk the paths of the Dead, or are you waiting for someone to return to you?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I distinctly need to get to bed. I'll be back in the morning with a fresh brain and will read and respond as I catch up (again).

Well! You'll have a lot to respond to, I imagine! Great reveal there, excellent work.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by McCaber

So sally, you being one of our pair of lovers, are you volunteering to walk the paths of the Dead, or are you waiting for someone to return to you?

My guess is the former. This:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I won’t reveal
I won’t give up the game

You’re never there
Why not ++ your name?

...

I want to play
I won’t tell them my role

When do you post?
Do your most
Share your role

Not gonna lie
Is it worth it?
Don’t want to die
Is it worth it?

Just let them know
That this lynch doesn’t count

seems to indicate that she's volunteering to be lynched toDay.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by McCaber

I need to get to bed soon, but I've been making a lot of posts toDay and haven't been suspecting anyone. I think it's time to change that.

Kath is still playing, but barely. I have to feel that a wolf would be more active than two posts on Day 1 and nothing since. For lack of evidence to the contrary, she's in my innocent category. But if she doesn't vote toDay she'll be dead regardless.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, is in the same sort of state I am where she's posting without contributing much. I don't much like this post of hers, because she's pulling what I'd say was an honest mistake from Agan and trying to pin it as deliberately misleading. I have to reserve judgment for now, but we'll see what she does toDay.

I'm also not that big a fan of Firefoot or Lottie, but most of that could just be their laser focus on such a small number of people.

McCaber if you read on you will see that I had my genuine misunderstanding explained to me. However because it was so late and I really didn't want a tie I still voted for her. Couldn't quantify it at that point but she seemed "off" . Now of course it is clear it was a gifted vibe rather than a wolfy one. Yes I didn't contribute much but I didn't have a lot of time and all that maths and philosophy were rather lost on me. Now that most of the people who do my head in and we happen to be in the deadfred and we have some concrete info I will probably perk up... be more useful.

[Nerwen]

Okay. So that’s what you are, Sally. Let me think about this.

[Nerwen]

We could certainly do with some information– and now the wolves will be searching frantically for Sally's lover, so the longer we delay her death the more chance she has of not getting resurrected at all. On the other hand, or paw, she isn’t a wolf. (At least, I don’t see why a wolf-Sally would be making a false reveal right now.)

Also, I concur with McCaber in thinking Greenie is the one the Dead should check. I think that would tell us most.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Sally sat alone and confused. With all of this death, and so much chatter about who may have done these horrible things, what hope did she have of helping solve the problem? Some even suspected her of perpetrating these crimes, as ridiculous a notion as that was, and she knew she had done precious little to convince them otherwise. Sally sighed, clutching her head in her hands and grumbling about headaches. She knew there was little she could do in her current situation. She had time now, certainly, but with an incoming attack from real life she couldn't escape, she would once again be limited in her ability to assist her friends. How could she help them?

And then, as Sally sometimes does, she began to sing to herself.

~~~~

I know I’ve been a little absent
A lot has already been said
What can I add to the discussion?
Or rather, what could I bring to the thread?

Not that you’ve been lying
But there’s more you could be doing
They could keep on trying
Or you could set up a shoe-in
You have an idea
You know what you’re thinking
What you need to do

I won’t reveal
I won’t give up the game

You’re never there
Why not ++ your name?

It's way too soon
I won't tell them my role

I still think maybe I can do this
I started with a good post count
But posting while at work won’t happen
Not without wanting to tear my eyes out

You can’t keep delaying
With no info, what will happen?
And if you keep playing
When will you have time for napping?
Level with the village
They could use the knowledge
Girl, you got to -have to- spill

They have no proof
They can’t know I’m a-

It’s too late now
Give it up, you’re a-

I want to play
I won’t tell them my role

When do you post?
Do your most
Share your role

Not gonna lie
Is it worth it?
Don’t want to die
Is it worth it?

Just let them know
That this lynch doesn’t count

At least in prose
I won’t tell them my role

~~~~

With a heavy sigh, Sally strolled off into the night in search of a certain unnamed someone. <3

Um, so... wow.

What do we do? I mean, if she is what she is, that's a known innocent. But would the Wolves go for her, when they could be going for the Seer or the other Pack? And do we dare use up a lynch for a known innocent?

Although I think the reveal is a bit too early, it's not bad. Considering the anomalous deaths of the previous diurnal cycle, it would be useful to know what the other side knows--provided her Lover survives in time for her to return.

Kuru-sama, were there any gender biases on the Lovers, or were they chosen purely at random? Maybe the Wolves just go after *gulp* males if even if we lynched her.

[Nerwen]

Kuru-sama, were there any gender biases on the Lovers, or were they chosen purely at random? Maybe the Wolves just go after *gulp* males if even if we lynched her.

I really hope our esteemed mod won’t answer that.

[Lalaith]

Well this is a pretty kettle of fish. First-off, the deaths yesterDay..

The narration mentions a bear-trap. Were-Bear? Is this relevant? But how could a Bear kill mix from day to night like that?

(Eomer)
Given my narration obsession, then yes, I too wondered about this. Particularly as my feeling had been that Greenie was innocent. Was Agan on the side of the angels or was hers the 'special role' - alignment unspecified and possibly thus evil? Was one of Legate , Mac or Rikae in fact the Hunter, taking one of the other two down with them? This is unlikely however as the 'itch' is still there in the narration which indicates that the special person is still alive...
I then wondered about the killing of Legate, in the light of his post which Firefoot helpfully reposted. Note that there are three people he names as innocent (green), and one (Greenie) as guilty (red). That makes four. At this point in the game the Seer would indeed have had four dreams. Did a clever Hunter Agan spot this and use his tip to kill a Greenie-wolf? That might be a better scenario. Although it does mean we have lost two gifted.
(PS Greenie, if you are reading this, and you were a wolf, hats off to you, you had me completely fooled)
This morning btw I am really liking Firefoot's posts - she's made a lot of sense and her points feel like those an innocent would make.
As for Sally's reveal (cutest reveal ever btw!) I feel a bit nervous. What if we send her to Mandos only for her other half to be killed either by wolves or heaven forfend, by clumsy lynching choices, in the meantime?

[Nerwen]

So, I don’t think we have any excuse to give up hunting for the Day. I’d like opinions on people. Starting with Nilp here. Why ask what he just asked?

[Lalaith]

Ooo...another thought. Maybe the special role is a wandering one, going from person to person each day or night. Remember, everyone has to have their wits about them, say the rules.

[Lalaith]

And another thought - if my Legate-as-Seer thesis is correct, then we should be trusting Lommy, Nerwen and Mith?

[Mithalwen]

Oblique poetry just as I was beginning to enjoy the lack of philosophy. Worth a lynch vote alone. Agree would be an odd fake reveal for a wolf but this is an odd game.

The itch thing is puzzling me to. The only itch in Tolkien I can think off is Sam anyway suffering in the Midgewater marshes but that doesn't really help.Suppose better trawl through in the light of recent events. ...

[Lalaith]

The only itch in Tolkien I can think off is Sam anyway suffering in the Midgewater marshes

Mith my love, I'd mentioned (yesterDay) Pippin's itchy palms (Gandalf's words) which led him to look into the Palantir. Which might be a bit more helpful...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

And another thought - if my Legate-as-Seer thesis is correct, then we should be trusting Lommy, Nerwen and Mith?

Of course!
Seriously I fear you’re likely right about Legate– that’s one of the main reasons I want to know what Greenie was.

Mind you, even if she turns out to be evil, it might mean only that the wolves (and Agan) *thought* Legate was the Seer– which in this game means the “green zone” people shouldn’t get an automatic pass just yet.

By the way, didn’t Agan say something on Day One about how gifteds should signal to each other?

Edit:x’d since Lalaith at #458.

[Mithalwen]

It might but that would hint at the seer more than KnownUnknown. And if Legate were the Seer then why is someone scratching this morning.. did someone shave a dwarf?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

It might but that would hint at the seer more than KnownUnknown. And if Legate were the Seer then why is someone scratching this morning.. did someone shave a dwarf?

Ah, well, that’s a point. Everyone’s been assuming the ”itcher” was the special role.

[Nerwen]

Here's the post I was talking about.

Edit:fixed link.

[Formendacil]

Just a quick post--I seem to have my technological means back toDay, so I should be around in the last several hours, though I'm off to work for now.

Someone--I've already lost whom in catching up--pointed out that people voted for Agan on back-to-back days. This isn't a surefire indicator of lupinity, but taking Day 1 hunches and doggedly following them on Day 2 is as likely to be a cover of a furry bandwaggon as not.

Also, Eomer is coming across far more cryptically today. I don't know what that means...

[Nerwen]

Now, what do people think of our little snow flower, Lottie? Rikae went after her yesterDay, and now Rikae's dead, so….?

Edit:x’d with Form.

[Mithalwen]

Nerwen, that link isn't working for me..could you check it or just give a number ref? Cheers.

[Nerwen]

Okay, I’ve fixed it.

[Mithalwen]

She says a lot including the comment that "I am not going there (the dead thread) alone" (my italic). To my mind that is as good a hint as you could get that she is the hunter and given that her death triggered Greenie's I think that is more likely than the special role the bear trap quote not withstanding.

[Thinlómien]

Okay first - my participation will be limited toDay as I'm out of the city for the weekend with friends (including Agan who keeps having helpless bursts of laughter while reading the dead thread. Very reassuring.) Anyway I do have internet here but I'm not expected to sit all day with my laptop playing werewolf...

Second - it seems I was wrong about the aforementioned deceased giggler. I'm honestly quite baffled because I still think her actions were pretty incriminating, but unless one of the wolves of each pack is blessed with the hunter's gifts without that being said in the rules, I have obviously been mistaken. I guess I'm starting to understand what Agan meant when she once jokingly said she always plays like a wolf even if she's an innocent... As for Greenie - well we can hope she was a wolf, but we can't really assume that. More on Greenie later.

Third - last Night: what on earth?? I'm still leaning towards the interpretation that Agan was the hunter (because otherwise the mysterious special role would be very similar to that of the hunter) and the special role bloodied their hands last Night. I agree that the special person killing Mac seems the most likely, but I'll still sacrifice a thought or two to that.

If I have the time, I'd so skim through all the Night killed people's posts.

People talking about the dead thread scrying people - before we start thinking if we can give them any instructions, we should check what the rules say: (there seemed to be some confusion, also in my own head)

Since in the Afterlife (or in the anteroom of the Afterlife) it is hard to hide one's true nature from one's fellow residents, every NIGHT after there are three residents the dead get to vote for one among themselves to determine their true nature. Their specific role will not be revealed but rather the voted player will be described as either PREDATOR or PREY.

"Every night after". So as the phantom and the rune only died on Night2, we should assume the dead thread didn't get to check anyone's role on Night2. And last Night, their options would have been Nogrod, the phantom, Rune, Agan and Greenie.

Now, we said they should check a lynch. I think that on principle, they would agree. This would make Nogrod the logical option as we can assume Agan was the hunter (or the special role). But then again, it's been a while since Nogrod's death and they might feel knowing Greenie's role is more useful. (Remember Agan and Greenie would have been part of decision board last Night.)

Okay so let me do a little maths before I embarrass myself:

We send Sally the volunteered lover (hi there!) to the dead thread by lynching her toDay (Day3).
If her partner manages to hide, Sally will return on Day5, knowing the roles of the people the dead scried on Night3 and Night4, right?
Now I'd love to actually NOT lynch Sally but a potential wolf instead, and leave the wolf packs wondering if they should off Sally or the other wolf pack will, and hopefully both going for Sally.
The downside of this strategy is that I'm not sure if the wolves wouldn't rather try to avoid killing Sally or her partner at all and hope the lovers with their special information will never come to be of (special) use to the village at all. They can afford the village to have one known innocent, I would think, it's more the question of whether they'd rather kill Sally and then try to kill her lover before she comes back, or whether they'd rather try to avoid night-killing or lynching either for as long as the game lasts, or actually, as long as there's still likely to be two more games.
Wow this gives me headache.

Okay a little more maths on top of this:

We're now 15 living people. In the worst ever case scenario, there's 9 innocents against 3 wolves against 3 wolves. Now let's assume the seer's dreams don't help us to lynch a wolf, the special role doesn't kill anybody anymore and the ranger doesn't make a save, and the wolves don't hit the same target or each other. (this is hopefully all very pessimistic)

We lynch lover-Sally on Day 3. It's 8-3-3.
An ordo and Sally's lover are killed on Night 4. It's 6-3-3.
We lynch an innocent on Day 4. It's 5-3-3.
Two innocents are killed on Night 5. It's 3-3-3.
Sally doesn't return from the dead to lift the ratio to 4-3-3. The village loses on Day5 with a tied wolf victory.

Now replace lynching Sally with lynching any other innocent toDay (and remove all talk of the lovers), and the worst case scenario is the same (tied wolf victory on Day5), the only difference is that we have two shots at lynching the wolf (toDay and toMorrow) instead of one (if we intentionally lynch Sally toDay).

I don't think it will come down to this. I think it's feasible to assume that at least 1-2 wolves are already dead, maybe more. Also the gifteds might be able to help us.

All I'm saying is, I'm not for lynching Sally without thinking it over a little more still. I guess it comes down to if taking a risk for the information about 2 scried dead people plus whatever other info the dead might have (seer dreams???) is worth "losing" a Day.

Now emphasis on the word "risk". Combined, the wolf packs have four shots at getting Sally's lover while she's in the underworld.

I guess my conclusion is:

The information is worth lynching a known innocent toDay. (I think this might be the first time ever I'm advocating not trying to lynch a wolf. Strange things happen.)
However I'm not sure we're likely to win this bet, which would make me tempted to push the choice over to the wolves and make them use their Night-kills for that instead of killing possible gifteds.

And geez, now I'm flip-flopping even more. My inner pessimist is asking if it really helps us to know the roles of two dead people (if the dead indeed have no other information) because a) they might both be innocent and b) even analyzing dead wolves' posts has never been a foolproof way to find their packmates.

Okay, now I'm flip-flopping out. I'll be back later - there's a ton of small things said by people earlier toDay and late yesterDay that I'd love to comment on.

But I really think we need think it over before lynching Sally. I'm inconclusive myself. The idea of the wolves having four shots in total at finding her lover sounds pretty bleak to me. Then again, I *do* want to know what the dead know, and it would be weird not to try to use the lovers to our advantage. (If the advantage in this warped case isn't using them as a wolf bait.)

/ confused Lommy out, please discuss

[Boromir88]

Talk of lynching a lover should be dismissed. Period. You all were up in arms Day 1 about the thought of tying the vote for no-lynch because it spoils the random 25% chance of lynching a wolf. Now you want to lynch a possible lover?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Okay first - my participation will be limited toDay as I'm out of the city for the weekend with friends (including Agan who keeps having helpless bursts of laughter while reading the dead thread. Very reassuring.) Anyway I do have internet here but I'm not expected to sit all day with my laptop playing werewolf...

Oh, they’re having a party there, by the look of things. Every time I go back to the main page it show a different corpse has just posted.

I agree that we definitely need to think this lynching Sally business over. So nobody jump in and vote for her yet, please. I’d find that very suspicious, actually.

Lommy, I’ve been asking what people think of various people. What do you think of Nilp? And Lottie? I have a particular reason for wanting to know.
EDIT:x’d with Boro.

[Nerwen]

You too, Boro.

[Nerwen]

I will explain fairly soon, but I just want some opinions first.

Also, what do people think of Eomer? And Firefoot?

[Nerwen]

Oh yes, and Boro himself, and the late Macalaure.. Come on, what do you all think about them?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I really hope our esteemed mod won’t answer that.

I think I like you.

Also, the punchline will have to wait.

[Nerwen]

Step up, don't be shy!
EDIT:x'd with Nilp.

[Nerwen]

Oh hello, Nilp.. Look, what do you mean by listing people under "koala"? Do you mean they roar loudly during the Night?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Also, I keep forgetting the most important thing about this stupid (and incredible) game:

Even if the Wolves kill the other Lover, they wouldn't know it unless Sally gets killed as well and doesn't return.

(Of course, another reason Sally wouldn't have returned from the Dead in such a case would be if she were indeed bluffing.)

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen -

I have been sort of ignoring Nilp (sorry dear!) all game as he has seemed fairly innocent to me. Now that I stop to think about him, I guess it's also possible he's furry. I recall a game maybe two years ago when I also kept ignoring him thinking he's innocent and he turned out to be a wolf who had fooled everyone. He's similar to how Greenie was (is??) in my mind - innocent-seeming, but maybe even too much so. I ended up being unsure about Greenie. I feel the same about Nilp.

As for Lottie, she's been similarly off my radar, but unlike Nilp, not on the innocent side. She's seemed a little fishy to me, but not really in a pin-pointable (sorry for that word ) way. I've been partly ignoring it too because I always get suspicious vibes from Lottie anyway. The same way I've been sort of ignoring the debate around her because similar controversy about her always occurs. Lastly, I was also personally finding Lottie suspicious yesterDay for taking part in the weird Nogawagon that happened to save Agan who was my top suspect, but that reasoning is obviously ditched now.

The bottom line? I have of lumping Nilp and Lottie in the "vaguely innocent" and "vaguely suspicious" categories respectively for later consideration and now that I'm sort of doing the "later consideration" by writing this post, Nilp seems a little more furry and Lottie a tiny bit less suspicious (mostly thanks to Agan's innocence) but I don't really know.


edit: xed with a bunch