WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[skip spence]

Quick spontaneous list.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Has voted Nessa twice now with sound reasoning. Innocent-leaning.

elronds_daughter - submarine and therefore hard to read. Don't care for that.

Macalaure - One of the loudest people. Doesn't always make that much sense to me though, will try to look closer at him if I find the time

Shastanis Althreduin - Seems rational and objective when he shows up. Wary of Shasta though.

wilwarin538 - Doesn't seem all that convincing to me.

Nessa Telrunya - Might well be a wolf I think. Evidence against her not favourable.

Pitchwife - Could be anything. Leaning innocent.

Inziladun - If he is innocent I feel sorry for him. Quite a bit stacked up against
him though.

Rikae - Innocent-feeling, but there's also this doubt in the back of my mind.

Boromir88 - Where is Boro and what happened to his attention-seeking?

A Little Green - No read.

Blind Guardian - Submarine and no read.

Mänwe - Has posted what twice? And very cryptically. Never voted. Tempted to vote him just because but probably won't.

Legate of Amon Lanc - Seems pretty genuine...

Aganzir - Looks less evil than she usually does which makes me wonder...

Caílin - Under the radar. Would like to have a better look at her.

Scary that there are 5 baddies in there. Will return soon with a vote.

[Cailín]

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Has voted Nessa twice now with sound reasoning. Innocent-leaning.

Ha! I like him too, but sound reasoning is strange praise for a "funny feeling".

I am fairly puzzled by skip's list, to be honest. However, Nessa´s claim that she would rather sacrifice herself so that we might take her suspicions of Rikae seriously is simply baffling, especially as she then continues to withdraw that apparently worthy-to-turn-myself-into-a-martyr-for suspicion.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If the latter was the case, we are living inside a horror. *dreads* I mean, if the WWs are already for two Nights doing nothing more than worrying about that they have been basically all caught this far and it is only a matter of time before they are lynched one by one, and yet still we in fact don't lynch either of them this far, it must be a rather pleasing picture for them.

That would be a nightmare, so have we reached the stage where Pitch, Nessa, and Inzil are just huge question marks we have to find them out or they will forever haunt us? Or do you think we should start widening the search, Legate?

If it has been as you say, then even with the few bad lynchings so far, the wolves are in a rather precarious, teetering on the edge situation, where once you remove one card, the entire house crumbles. I wouldn't expect things to be that simple, but I would regret letting Inzil and Nessa slip away at this point. I'm still not convinced on what got Pitch under suspicion, but I admit to forgetting about him after Day 1, so I'll have another look.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

But you don't just fear to be dreamed of, you usually suspect one particular person to have dreamed of you (by their behaviour towards you) and kill that one. A lone wolf might get extremely nervous and behave like that, but with three comrades to keep him in check? This would only make sense if the wolves decided to throw Skip under the bus, subtly, but with the second kill tied to the fourth wolf, that's nonsense.

Second kill tied to the fourth wolf? Who are the other three?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

When you repeatedly and prominently used a word associated with him in one particular post

And that was what? Sorry, I've got no clue what you're talking about.

[skip spence]

++Nessa

I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out.

I will try to log in later (and might even change my vote if if seems best) but more likely, this is it for me for toDay.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by skip spence

++Nessa

I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out.

I will try to log in later (and might even change my vote if if seems best) but more likely, this is it for me for toDay.

Does anyone care to tell what points are these? I've seen speculation, but nothing stronger than "wolvish vibes" or "bad feelings".

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Skip agrees with Boro that the wolves probably want to stay quiet early on. I don't think that's actually what Boro said: he seemed to be more of the opinion that the wolves don't want to bus each other early on. Skip however uses this as an excuse to consider voting for a quiet player - but expresses doubt because if the consensus is to vote off a non-contributor, the wolves can escape by being louder. Why is that a bad thing? A loud wolf is easier to catch than a quiet one and also leaves more trails.

He adds we should spread the votes unless there's a reason not to, and brings up the unfortunate Shastawagon (Shasta the seer was lynched in his absence by an exceptionally unanimous bandwagon).

He also agrees with Pitch, saying the cobbler's ability to send messages to the wolves will probably make her increasingly dangerous as the game progresses because they can identify each other more easily with the method of elimination. This comment makes me somewhat uneasy because he doesn't actually say anything new... It's more like talking about the cobbler just for the sake of it, not because he had anything new to say.

He then discusses the seer, saying she "should not be sacrificed lightly" and basically suggests the seer should wait with the reveal as long as possible ("I'd wait with the open reveal unless I faced the gallows"). He has a point, the only thing is it's reasonable for both a wolf and an innocent to suggest it.

Originally Posted by skip #34

The Seer must however be very careful to not leave any false trails should he/she happen to get killed. If we lose the Seer and the trail points to an innocent, we're in big trouble.

This makes me raise my eyebrows. No, we're not in big trouble if the seer suspects someone she hasn't dreamed of - unless it happens very late in the game, but seers don't usually survive that long. It's essential for the seer's survival that she not leave too obvious clues, and it isn't in the village's interests to say she should. The one or two known innocents aren't worth much if the seer dies early on. Sally accused skip of trying to hush the seer instead of using her, and skip countered by saying sally was twisting his words (unintentionally or not).
In his defense, though, he has a bad past experience about lynching the seer.

He proceeds to give the second vote for sally: "Just got this icky feeling about her misrepresenting my words." Several people had expressed willingness to vote for her before, though. At that point Nessa was leading with 4 while Zil had 3 and Lottie & Pitch 2. Skip's guilt would point away from Nessa & Zil because if he had wanted to save one of them, it would've made more sense to vote for Lottie, or Pitch if he's innocent.

Sally was the only person he expressed suspicion towards on day 1. He named a couple of others but mostly just agreed with them instead of having an actual opinion on them. This, I think, isn't particularly wolfish (in my experience, wolves prefer to hoard a list of suspicious people they can attack later on if need me). It's rather his views on certain things (the seer, for instance) that worry me.

DAY 2
He explains he didn't see sally's cobbler idea when voting for her so my argument about wolves not wanting to vote for her because of it doesn't apply to him. He speculates on whether one of the most voted (Pitch, Lottie, Nessa, Inzil) might be a wolf and if yes, how would their fellows react. Skip thinks Nessa looks the worst but it's also possible she's being framed. Lottie's "over-the-top defence" of Ozban was suspicious. He criticises ed for saying Inzil doesn't remind her of his wolfish self but adds Inzil doesn't worry him much.

He thinks Pitch, Rikae and Mac make sense & seem helpful and therefore considers them innocent whereas Legate, Nessa and a quiet wolf hiding in the crowd are starting to worry him.

After Kit's reveal, skip says he doesn't like the idea of just lynching her. His reasoning is the following:

Even though I think this statistically favours the village over the wolves (the latter lose their influence over the voting) it seems like a Day wasted and today's game ruined.

I agreed with him on not lynching Kit, but I find it more likely her lynch would've favoured the wolves - after all the odds of her hitting an innocent were higher, and the wolves don't really mind who dies as long as it isn't one of them. Therefore this argument sounds weird, even if innocentish. If skip turns out to be a wolf we should check Kitanna's suspects because in that case there probably is another wolf among them.

Skip then makes his fake hunter reveal. It was obviously a joke referring to his last game, but reactions to it are interesting as well. Rikae had posted shortly before it but gave no inclination of being around until later, therefore the people to comment on it were Inzil, Legate, me and Shasta. Shasta and I immediately pinned it as the joke it was, but Legate and Inzil seemed to think he was serious. I am 99% certain skip and Legate aren't fellows. As I said, it would have taken outstanding acting from Legate to react the way he did. He believed skip and started to discuss things from that perspective, and I can see no holes in his post that would indicate any extra knowledge.
Inzil's reaction is fishier than Legate's but not necessarily wolfish either:

Originally Posted by Inzil #232

Really, skip? So what does that mean: Kit's trying to get us to waste a lynch on her, instead of getting modfired? I'm not sure that I buy it. How about we lynch you, and you then hunt Kit? That would take care of the question.

I can understand his skepticism because skip's claim would have seemed outrageous if he had been serious, but it can also be seen as quickly distancing oneself from a fellow who has blundered. It doesn't make me suspect Inzil more (or less), but it makes me doubt they're a wolf & cobbler pair because if that was the case, Inzil probably wouldn't have questioned him the way he did.

As I said before, I don't think we can deduce anything from skip's hunter joke. I'm disinclined to think he wouldn't do it as a wolf because of the attention he might get because as everyone who played in his last game know, he's a bold player.

Later skip discussed the sallywagon shortly, saying he was a bit surprised by all the late votes for her but can't really accuse us who lynched her because he found her suspicious too, and that the reasons for lynching her weren't as bad as some people implied. Sally was voted by wilwa, skip, Lottie, Lommy & me - two of them dead innocents, two of them unknowns (to me). I find his comment innocentish. Wilwa voted for sally because of her cobbler idea, something I doubt a wolf would've done. If skip is a wolf, he would have been semi-defending at least three innocents, possibly four. It just doesn't pay off for a wolf. So if skip or wilwa is guilty, the other might be worth a look as well.

In the same post, he says Nessa seems sloppy but he'll give her the benefit of doubt for that day; Lottie worries him but he won't vote for her; Inzil's identity might shed on light on the day 1 voting; Legate seems genuine; and Boro seems off. He adds he feels pretty good about most of the loudmouths and might vote for a submarine because there probably is a wolf or two among them.
He votes for ed, saying it's a shot in the dark but he rather tries a submarine than a heavy contributor. If one of them is a wolf the other looks better because a couple of people had started suspecting ed and there was a chance she might receive more votes. When he voted, Rikae, Nessa & Kit already had a vote (he xed with Lottie's vote for Kit though).

**

Skip looks more innocent than I originally thought but I'm not sure I'd be ready to consider him innocent yet. I think his behaviour towards other players doesn't look very wolfish - he just doesn't seem particularly careful. On the other hand, some of the things he said don't sound innocent to me, but to be honest I suppose my growing WW enmity () towards him might be to blame for that.

The kills point towards him, but that was actually more likely than not given that about half the village expressed concern about him according to my notes.

I'm torn because my gut tells me to suspect skip but my reason not to.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And that was what? Sorry, I've got no clue what you're talking about.

Never mind. I must be mistaken.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Does anyone care to tell what points are these? I've seen speculation, but nothing stronger than "wolvish vibes" or "bad feelings".

The death of Ozzy, who suspected and voted you, plus the fact that Zil, who is himself widely suspected, climbed out on a limb to save you by getting innocent Lottie lynched, plus the dubious business with Rikae on Day 1.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's difficult to play werewolf on a phone, but I do have a couple of thoughts.

Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)

Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

The death of Ozzy, who suspected and voted you, plus the fact that Zil, who is himself widely suspected, climbed out on a limb to save you by getting innocent Lottie lynched, plus the dubious business with Rikae on Day 1.

Thank you. However, I hardly think a Day1 suspicion is substantial evidence.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I have no doubt you'll find me guilty, sweetheart

Should I have?

Originally Posted by Rikae

If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?

Exactly.

I'm worried about nobody paying attention to Mac & Shasta (other than "they look innocent"), not because I suspect them but because I know how sneaky they can be. I'd like to take a look at them at some point, however I won't have time for it today. I'm also torn about Boro who hasn't been posting enough substance for me to form a solid opinion on him - he worries me but not enough to justify a vote.

Here's a list of people I might vote today. I'd prefer one from the first category but a lynch from the 2nd or 3rd might prove more helpful. I think there's more of a case against Inzil than Nessa so it's probably either him or a quiet player.

Suspicious-ish but not enough substance: ed, wilwa, BG, Mänwe (who'll be modfired if he doesn't vote today)
The enigmatic pair: Inzil, Nessa
Would be more of a gut thing: Pitch, Rikae, skip

I'm going now, will be back to vote some time before the deadline.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Elaboration on Legate (now that I'm at a computer) - Basically, (duh) Legate is known for 180-ing, and in hindsight that was my main reason to suspect him.

Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow - which does make me wonder if clever wolves aren't leaving them alive for precisely that reason, but still.

[Macalaure]

Boro worries me a lot. If you have limited time to play, you try to come up with something helpful when you're around, trying to figure out what's going on. The points he does make are not up to his standards. Just compare Boro posts to the posts of time-challenged Skip toDay. Boro hasn't done anything of consequence since my analysis yesterDay, and my mind remains unchanged.

I don't have time toDay, since I have to go now, but Cailín worries me a bit. Not sure why. I'll need to have a look at her toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Rikae

If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?

The only persons in perpetual trouble are Nessa and Inzil. Nessa has not been incriminated by the wolves except by the Ozban kill. Inzil only got into the situation in the first place by the wolves' actions and his strange behaviour around it. Any other wolf has no special reason to be worried at this point.

Greenie -> Inzil
BG -> Nessa
Wilwa -> Inzil(2)
Skip -> Nessa(2)

Looking at this and people's stated suspicions, I guess your mind is made up. I think neither Nessa nor Inzil are good options, so I might as well stick with my actual top suspect.

++Boromir88

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Because my desire to see Rikae lynched outweighed my desire to live. You see, I figured that once everyone saw that I was innocent, they would be inclined to take a second look at the person who I'd consistently voted.

Why would people go after someone you'd voted for just because you were found to be innocent? Unless you're the Seer who dreamed of Rikae, but your next words belie that:

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Although, my suspicion for Rikae is beginning to wane in light of her overall helpfullness, and that nothing else she's said has resulted in stirring the pot-so to speak. It also helps that Legate's giving me the chills.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I also continue to believe that Inzil is innocent. After playing with Inzilwolf in the last game, I'm getting a different tone from him, not to mention the style of the wolves feels quite different in this game. And his some of his actions have been way too radical to come from a wolf who had double-kills to risk, should anyone take his words the wrong way.

You're right in that I am indeed innocent. However, your apparent reluctance to hop on the bandwagon against me, like your not changing your vote yesterDay to save yourself, now has me wondering if you aren't the Cobbler, convinced that I'm a wolf.

[Rikae]

I'm inclined to think, at this point, that the seer must know something about either Nessa or Inzil, and, knowing that, has the key to the other's identity as well. Unless, of course, xe decided to avoid dreaming a likely lynch target, which is also possible...
Still, I have a feeling like those two, although unknown now, are sort of taken care of, in that everyone has an opinion on them and therefore there are tons of trails.

I have had a really bad feeling about Legate for some time now and almost am ready to vote him for that reason. It isn't logical. He just seems to manage to stay on the edges of trouble, nudging it onwards somehow... but that is not solid, might be innocent, and psychic Shasta doesn't suspect him. He gets a pass for now, but I'm going to analyze him next chance I get.

Not really as suspicious of Skip as those others listed above. He seems cheerful, almost giddy, which could be a bad sign when the wolves are doing well so far, but I don't really feel like I have much to go on where he's concerned.

Those top suspects aside, I think I'll actually have to follow the old ball and chain and vote for someone who should be loud, but isn't, and who is making me uneasy, and who I have other reasons to wonder about, namely:

++Boro

Now, I have a date for Saturday night (not being a loser at all! ) and so won't be back until after deadline. Vote wisely, folks.

[Pitchwife]

An hour to DL. Where is everybody?

Shasta's right, that messy Zil/Nessa business needs to be cleared up toDay. I guess I should stick to my guns and vote Nessa after all, but Zil actually looks worse toDay, if not by much.
The one thing that can't be part of a frame attempt by the wolves is Zil's 180 vote yesterDay. As far as that is concerned, Zil's and Nessa's respective suspiciousness equally depends on the other in my mind, so that's not much help deciding...

[Nessa Telrunya]

++Legate

Because of how weirdly he's been acting. I can't explain it too thoroughly until tomorrow, as I have to go now.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

An hour to DL.

Half an hour, to be more exact...

[Inziladun]

All right. Going out now, and won't make it back by DL.

I actually agree with Rikae. I think Nessa is hardly likely to be ignored by the Seer at this point, and I'm seriously considering her as the Cobbler. At any rate, BG and skip, neither of whom I particularly trust, have voted for Nessa. And we now have another viable candidate in Boro, whose vote for me on Day was for a rather questionable reason. He doesn't seem to be his usual, aggressive wolf-hunting self, either.

++Boro

Choose well, folks.

Auf Wiedersehen.

[Cailín]

I am not sure what to do (quite unlike me, really).

I agree that Inzil and Nessa will continue to be a distraction and I am unhappy to see they have the focus of so much debate toDay. It might be best, as Boromir88, Shasta and others have said, to get them out of the way. I am not sure what Mac and Rikae are up to but I have nothing on Boromir88 and I find him mysterious but not particularly nasty looking. I also feel uncomfortable about Legate and still am suspicious of skip, but it doesn't look as if he will be an option for the gallows toDay.

I will make up my mind in a few minutes.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hum. Inzil going after Nessa at this late stage makes me uneasy, almost as if he's preparing a vote for her in advance.

My mind's made up.

++Inzil

[Pitchwife]

Bah. Might as well flip a coin.

++Zil

Á vala Manwë!


EDIT: x-ed from #420

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also, Inzil now jumping on Boro? Really?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nessa, Inziladun or Skip? I would agree that Skip looks the most likely guy to be set up (by Valier's slaying). Inzil looks the most like a cobbler to me.

I really want to kill Nessa but, like I said earlier, wouldn't they have killed me (or one of the other Nessa voters) if she was guilty? It's quite possible she is the sacrifical wolf.

Macalaure looks most like the standard 'straight guy'.

Cailin, Agan, Green and Shasta all look pretty innocent to me.

BG and Manwe - possibly a wolf in there but we need to first get a wolf who leaves a trail.

Rikae and Pitch are puzzles to me. Wilwa probably innocent. Legate could go either way.

I know I've forgotten a couple but I'll come back for you.

[Aganzir]

Green - Zil
BG - Nessa
wilwa - Zil 2
skip - Nessa 2
Mac - Boro
Rikae - Boro 2
Nessa - Legate
Inzil - Boro 3
Shasta - Inzil 4
Pitch - Inzil 5

Left: Eomer, ed, Boro, Mänwe, Legate, Agan, Caílin

[Cailín]

It's a bandwagon, but I concede. There is something up with Inzil. First that analysis of elronds_daughter looks like he was fishing for another easy lynch of a quiet player. Now this sudden vote for Boromir whom he has not mentioned before. His behaviour yesterDay was strange for sure. Basically it boils down to whether you trust his statements or not. I do not - would not trust anyone really.

++ Inzil

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think I'll actually have to follow the old ball and chain and vote for someone who should be loud, but isn't, and who is making me uneasy, and who I have other reasons to wonder about, namely:

++Boro

One for you Rikae when you're back (hope you had a wonderful evening out!) - or indeed anyone who has played in more than two WW games with a person who is currently playing - does the pattern of a players behaviour really not change often from game to game, such that any change makes them suspect?

Either way, I won't vote for Boro yet I don't think he's said anything more suspicious that marks him out more than some other players.

At the moment I am inclined to remain watchful of the extremes, and will vote against the establishment here who seem to have overlooked by and large the players i've mentioned in my past posts. I wish I were the seer in order to confirm a couple of suspicions ive held since the beginning. A wolf hides in the extremes...

++elronds_daughter is someone i've mentioned in my posts, largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.

~~

Pitch- tsk ala Mr. Anton "what's the most you ever lost on a coin toss" Chigurh.

[Aganzir]

I don't know what to think of the sudden Borowagon. I agree he isn't the Boro I know, but he's usually a lot smoother as a wolf. He does remind me of his cobbler self though... But personally I'd still like to see more before lynching him.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Around, but don't have much time to comment on stuff... maybe I will manage to comment on two or three things people have said, but probably most will have to wait till toMorrow if I am still alive.

I would have wanted to vote for El Ron Hubbard now, also after looking at the analysis of her. But she does not seem to get so much votes, so not sure if it has any sense to do it.

Could btw anybody post a voting tally now?

I could vote Nessa, but I'm not entirely comfortable with it simply because I am wondering if she could be sort of framed and all that, I'm worried if it is not all just "bandwaggoning" on some suspicion raised by Wolves. I am not right now 100% fond with voting Boro, even though I have suspected him earlier, lately he has dropped a bit. I am not sure about voting Zil more or less for the same reasons as what I said about Nessa and also because possibly he's just a Cobbler (see what I have said in one of my posts above about this subject).

EDIT: x.ed with people from Pitch onwards and a tally, thanks!

[Cailín]

Coin tosses are bad but a throwaway vote for a silent player is not much better really.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.

Says who?

I might vote for ed but lynching her would mean an extra day of having to wonder about the Inzil/Nessa thing and I'm not sure I want that.

[Nogrod]

Agan: your tally seems to have foreseen Cailín's vote for Inzil (aka Inzil had a mysterious added vote there)

Here's the tally.

Greenie -> Inzil
Blind G -> Nessa
wilwa -> Inzil2
Skip -> Nessa2
Mac -> Boro
Rikae -> Boro2
Nessa -> Legate
Inzil -> Boro3
Shasta -> Inzil3
Pitchie -> Inzil4
Cailín -> Inzil 5
Mänwe -> Elron Hub

[elronds_daughter]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't know what to think of the sudden Borowagon. I agree he isn't the Boro I know, but he's usually a lot smoother as a wolf. He does remind me of his cobbler self though... But personally I'd still like to see more before lynching him.

I concur. I'm not ready to lynch Boro yet. Nor am I ready to jump on the Inzilwagon. Yet.

A few more minutes of thought...

Edit: x'ed with Legate, Agan, Cailin, and the Mod-God.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Agan: your tally seems to have foreseen Cailín's vote for Inzil (aka Inzil has a mysterious added vote there)

Whoops, it was Boro-3 so I accidentally wrote Inzil-4 after that.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++NESSA

But I'm happy enough with Inzi too.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

++elronds_daughter is someone i've mentioned in my posts, largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.

I would have seconded that, alas, I think it'd be a throwaway vote at this point, now that I see how many people are left to vote. I am not objecting either of Zil or Nessa, like I said, though if I could, I'd have preferred others... but let's just hope that the death of either of them will bring something good.

I will probably go for Nessa, then. Just a last look...

(probably xed since my last)

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Says who?

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

[Aganzir]

This is damn annoying because I'm actually feeling worse about Nessa than Inzil at the moment... But Inzil's vote yesterday was weird. Not the Legate 180 but the timing. Argh.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here goes my vote, and I won't probably have time to comment on anything at all in the end, but then, hopefully toMorrow if I am alive...

++Nessa

*hopes for the best*