TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I shall now reenact the way I believe the Nightly discussion must have gone:

Wolf #1: Alas, poor Dead!Wolf. Also, OH MY GODZ TEH FEAZ AND SPAMIE CAN HAZ BE EVILZ???!!?

Wolf #2: I nohwz! We can haz FeaSpamie vote of epik awesome?

Wolf #3: Fea+Spamie might can haz bad motivz and we diez if we says "Hi FeaSpamie!"

Wolves 1-3: *deliberate*

Wolves 1-3: *decide*

Day Occurs.

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, posting before bed.

First and foremost- to Fea and SPM, while I can't say I'm happy with your choices in strategy, I do owe you an apology. I was rude and it was inexcusable. You have a right to play however you want, and while as a villager I may be unhappy, as a player I should respect your choice.

To those who suspect me:

Your reasons are what? I lost my temper? Because that's so out of character for me? At the time, it looked to me like Fea and SPM had thrown their chips in with the wolves, so no matter what we would lose. I wanted to punish them for that. My mentality was one of "If I'm going down, I'm taking them with me."

Yes, my vote for Nerwen was a shot in the dark. I had only one suspect at the beginning of the Day, and that was Fea. My last two posts were made as my guest (Craydon) was literally trying to pull me away from my keyboard so we wouldn't be late. Loslote, you accuse me of splitting the vote, but no one else had voted at that point. Had you voted, I'd have followed you since I believe you to be innocent, especially with how you handled Fea and SPM's coming out and subsequent statement of non-cooperation. But no one had voted, and I had no suspects. How was I supposed to vote with the village when the village hadn't voted?

Yes, McCaber was a wolf (and now we are in the place we were yesterday). I fail to see how that points to me being a wolf.

I'm going to bed. My posting will be about the same as yesterday. (In quantity, hopefully not in quality.)

Edit: Crossed with Fea's first post down.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Loslote, you accuse me of splitting the vote, but no one else had voted at that point. Had you voted, I'd have followed you since I believe you to be innocent, especially with how you handled Fea and SPM's coming out and subsequent statement of non-cooperation. But no one had voted, and I had no suspects. How was I supposed to vote with the village when the village hadn't voted?

The village would hardly have voted for Fea, would it? Or me either, I should think. Did you really expect people (innoccent-type people, anyway) to follow either of those votes?

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Yes, McCaber was a wolf (and now we are in the place we were yesterday). I fail to see how that points to me being a wolf.

Because Fea, presumably the intended lynchee, had just become a known innocent and McWolfer was next in line to the gallows. Therefore if you were a wolf you would need to put forward another candidate in a hurry.

I don't say you are a wolf, mind. You seemed to panic at the Lovers' reveal, in a way that could have been either that of a wolf or of a frustrated innocent.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

So.

How 'bout that Night discussion?

I bet it was riveting.

Isn’t she just adorable.

So, matters remain in the balance and we remain neutral (though open to offers). It's a shame really, as yesterDay’s voting record is a real juicy one, just ripe for analysis.

Here it is anyway, as it is traditional for me to post it:

Roa -> Nerwen (Nerwen - 1)
Roa -- Nerwen -> Fea (Fea - 1)
Loslote -> McCaber (Fea - 1, McCaber - 1)
Nogrod -> McCaber (Fea - 1, McCaber - 2)
SPM -> Roa (Fea - 1, McCaber - 2, Roa - 1)
Sally -> Roa (Fea - 1, McCaber - 2, Roa - 2)
Inzil -> McCaber (Fea - 1, McCaber - 3, Roa - 2)
Nerwen -> McCaber (Fea - 1, McCaber - 4, Roa - 2)
Brinn -> McCaber (Fea - 1, McCaber - 5, Roa - 2)
Fea -> Roa (Fea - 1, McCaber - 5, Roa - 3)

Did not vote: Pitch, McCaber

Make of it what you will.

Edit: I left my beloved off the voting record. How could I forget her!

[Nerwen]

Thanks for the list, SPM.

Now, I said yesterDay evening that Roa and Sally were unlikely to both be wolves, but that was silly. At the time Sally voted, only Fea, Roa and McWolfer had votes and it was only five minutes to DL. So if she's a wolf and Roa and McCaber her packmates, she'd have known one of them was going down whatever she did.

This is not an accusation– I'm merely saying there's no particular reason Sally's vote on Roa couldn't have been wolf-on-wolf.

[Nerwen]

Well, then. From my point of view, three of these people must be wolves:

Roa
Loslote
Nogrod
Sally
Inzil
Brinn

Which means that at least one wolf has a.) managed to attract little or no suspicion and b.) helped lynch McWolfer. And for it to be only one, Roa and Sally would have to be the other two.

If it's neither of them, the pack would have to include three out of the group of Loslote, Nogrod Brinn and Inzil. (It must include at least one of them.)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, then. From my point of view, three of these people must be wolves:

Roa
Loslote
Nogrod
Sally
Inzil
Brinn

Which means that at least one wolf has a.) managed to attract little or no suspicion and b.) helped lynch McWolfer. And for it to be only one, Roa and Sally would have to be the other two.

I think Sally is almost certainly a wolf, and I intend for her to be my vote toDay.
Submarine+Dodgy Voting= Evil (it did in McCaber's case!)

Now, the others. I'm going almost entirely on memory here, because I haven't the time to do otherwise just now.

Roa: Well.... Early spat with SPM (who's presumed innocent now, but we can't assume he's been playing with our best interests in mind); Voted for SPM on Day 1, Greenie on Day 2, and Fea Day 3. I need to look at her more closely, but I don't see why should couldn't be a wolf.

Nog: The thing that jumps out about him is that he's been after McCaber from the start. Sure, it could have been wolf on wolf, but didn't he vote for McCaber fairly early on during Day 1, when several still had to vote?

Lottie: I've suspected her off and on, mostly because of her Day 1 vote, which came late, against Morsul. I've caught her in at least one slip, but she's given a plausible explanation. She was, I think, the first vote for McCaber on Day 2. Granted, he wasn't really a serious candidate at that point.

Brinn: she's one I haven't looked at much, and it's high time to do so. I think she also voted for McCaber at least once before yesterDay, on Day 2 after Lottie.

Nerwen: another who's mostly slipped by me.

LIke I said, I think I'm voting Sally toDay, but Brinn and Nerwen need analyzing.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nerwen, McCaber had no votes at the time I voted, and while some people had expressed suspicion towards him, others had expressed suspicion towards Loslote, and there were some other suspicions around as well.

McCaber to me looked to be an east target for the wolves to lynch, and I was under the impression of extreme busyness on his end. One of the points against him was that he said he would be around and then wasn't, but on Day 1 the same thing happened and on Day 2 he said it was because his internet gave out. I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, which is why I imagine everyone ignored Pitch as a possible suspect as well.

I picked you off the list because no one has actually looked at you yet. I was hoping in the hours after my departure someone would, but no one did, and while we caught one wolf the others could have easily hidden in the bandwagon, making the votes useless.

And did you think Nerwen, that perhaps those who voted for me were trying to save McCaber, since I was the easiest replacement lynch at the time, and wasn't around to defend myself after all the suspicion started to accrue? Or were you hoping that that idea wouldn't come up? Afterall, if it had succeeded, we would have 4 wolves and 6 innocents, 2 of which were the lovers who have the possibility of working with the wolves. And we would have had to lynch a wolf or lose. ToDay could have been the last Day, if McCaber hadn't been lynched.

And at the time, I was mad enough to hope that Fea got lynched just so the lovers would lose after having been so difficult. Rational? No, but I'm not Spock- I get angry. (Actually, so does Spock, so scratch that.)

I may or may not be on in a few hours. I will vote sometime before DL, though I can't promise when. Maybe I won't have to vote first this time with no suspects, though right now I don't like the way Sally, jumped so easily onto the suspicion against me.

(And Nerwen, I have never in WW history, tried to save a fellow wolf. Ask anyone who's ever been a wolf with me. I will sacrifice my fellows in a heartbeat. So I would never have tried to save
McCaber had I bee his packmate.)

edit: crossed with Inzil

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I think Sally is almost certainly a wolf, and I intend for her to be my vote toDay.
Submarine+Dodgy Voting= Evil (it did in McCaber's case!)

Ill+working 60 hours a week=evil. Yes, that makes sense. I admire your intuition, Dun. (Yes, that's sarcasm, you numpkins. )

Anyway, I still think Roa evil but I can also understand her getting upset (and thus acting suspicious just out of frustration), so I'll definitely take a look at a couple other people toDay when I get a chance.

Maths. There's eight of us and three wolves. We were very fortunate to get the McCobblerWolf but we still can't mess up toDay, so let's save our energy for important discussions and not waste it on babble, okay?

[satansaloser2005]

By the way, kudos for still being alive. Haven't done anything of note yet, but we're still counting on you, so keep doing what you're doing and then some!

[/random words of encouragement and yay]



And now off to work with me. Sorry, but I can guarantee I'll be busy again for a while. Back when I can.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And did you think Nerwen, that perhaps those who voted for me were trying to save McCaber, since I was the easiest replacement lynch at the time, and wasn't around to defend myself after all the suspicion started to accrue?

Of course it occurred to me. That's one of the reasons I suspect Sally. What I was saying before is that, contrary to what I said last Night, there's no reason you couldn't be in it together. A Wolfisaloser (if such she is) could have been voting an innocent Roa to try and save McWolfer. Or she could have been voting a packmate to look good. I don't know which of these is true; perhaps they're both wrong and she's innocent. I'm just trying to sort out the possibilities.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Or were you hoping that that idea wouldn't come up?

I though that it was implicit in my comment yesterDay at #390.

Originally Posted by Me

If he's a wolf, either Sally or Roa might well be another, but not, from the look of things, both.

i.e. My initial reaction was, "Hey, what if Sally is a wolf and she's voting innocent Roa to try and save McCaber?

So, Roa, why am I supposed to be "hoping the idea won't come up?" Is this a roundabout way of accusing me, or what?

And do you really think that Wolf-me would take part in a fiendish plot that– as far as I can work out– depends on no-one suspecting the wolves of doing the most obvious thing possible? Really?

EDIT:X'd with two Sallys.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Finally one of the wolves lynched.

But that's about the only good news then...


Let's start with the begging time then as I can see that as our only possibility.

Our lives are in your hands, oh deeply respected lovers. *bows deep*

We know you fine and gracious lovers could call this game off already by making a voting-alliance with the wolves. But would you wish the game to end that unsportily? I'm appealing to the "player" in you, to your inner detective wishing and willing to try and solve a mystery - to test and show your skills (with no risk whatsoever to you) - and well, play the game as you now have a chance to do it without pressure!

Couldn't your magnificient and beautiful persons come down from your heights and like take sides just for toDay to begin with and help us picking a wolf from there to make things a bit more even? At least you could promise us an equal playing field so that you would not rally around the wolves toDay - or vote randomly to whomever annoys you the most on grounds relating to peoples' stances on your roles? Otherwise it's just meaningless even to try anything toDay.

So please...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Nog, toDay isn't meaningless at all.

The thing to remember is that the Wolves might want a pure victory. They've been doing quite well without any help. Why should they split a win with others if they can just massacre everyone all by their lonesomes?

So if they take that route, then Sauce and I are irrelevant.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's start with the begging time then as I can see that as our only possibility.

Our lives are in your hands, oh deeply respected lovers. *bows deep*

Well, your precise circumstances depend on who exactly ‘you’ are. But, whoever (or whatever) you are, this is not strictly true. Your destiny still lies in your own hands (or paws, as the case may be).

Originally Posted by Nog

We know you fine and gracious lovers could call this game off already by making a voting-alliance with the wolves.

That’s really rather up to the Wolves, don’t you think?

Originally Posted by Nog

But would you wish the game to end that unsportily?

It’s not at all unsporting from our perspective. Given how difficult it is for Lovers to win, surely you can’t blame us for seeking to make the best of the circumstances in which we find ourselves.

Originally Posted by Nog

I'm appealing to the "player" in you, to your inner detective wishing and willing to try and solve a mystery …

Oh, believe me, my ‘inner detective’ is not idle. He is just choosing not to make his deductions and suspicions public.

Originally Posted by Nog

Otherwise it's just meaningless even to try anything toDay.

Come now, Noggie, this is poppycock, and you know it. If the Innocents find another Wolf toDay, then it is very much still game on. If they do not, then they probably lose.

And the playing field is not too uneven. The Innocents benefit from our revelation in that they have the advantage of being able to eliminate us from their enquiries (and I hardly think that it is in our interests to give them any further advantage). The Wolves, on the other hand, know that we are open to offers, should the situation arise whereby we can both share the victory.

Originally Posted by Pookie

So if they take that route, then Sauce and I are irrelevant.

Save, of course that, if it becomes clear that they have taken that route, we shall be doing our darndest to ensure a Village victory.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Save, of course that, if it becomes clear that they have taken that route, we shall be doing our darndest to ensure a Village victory.

Clearly. I desire that this game should be ended on our terms.

[Inziladun]

Some Sally-nalysis: (many emoticons omitted at forum software's insistance)

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Well it's statistically proven that at least one of the first three posters is evil so I was avoiding....crap.


(Also, I got really sick over the weekend so I'll probably not be on much if at all toDay. Sorry about that.)

Also, for the moddess. Random.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'll be disappointed if you don't. Erm, I mean....


Wow, it's quiet. Then again, that's probably good for me; less to read later. Going to bed now and likely won't bother to check until afternoon/evening my time, so until then.

First two are in a joking tone mainly. Explains she's ill.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

P.S. Does anyone love me enough to give me a vote count? Please?

She asked for a Day 1 vote count, which I provided.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

++Hakon

The level of shiftiness worries me. That and he should know better than to use meta reasons by now.

Sorry, but I don't have much else than that. Feel free to overrule me if the rest of you innocents wish, but I don't feel up to doing any work right now so this is as good as it gets. Good night, all, and hope to see you all in the Morning!

Voted Hakon, Very safe, as many had expressed disapproval and suspicion of him. However, it had pretty much been decided that his behaviour could have been due to his general nature (which turned out to be the case), so he wasn't really a viable candidate at that point. Yes, I know innocent Lari did the same thing.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

*glances up, blinks*

Love Fea (or at least her Poe-try) think Saucie might be okay and am worried about Roa and possibly Nog. Pitch seems evil to me and Greenie just voted me for no reason, but people do that a lot so I'll leave it alone for now.

Just some thoughts. Sorry, but I ended up being a lot busier (and a lot sicker) than I intended today. I did warn you I'd be a submarine....


(In other news, I'll read through everything again when I get off work and offer commentary where I see fit/can manage. Then I'll go from there.)


EDIT: x'd with Nog and the Telltale Fea. I bloody love you.

Very rushed and generally non-commital. Says Pitch 'seems evil' but declines to explain why. She does say she's busy and not feeling especially well.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

*whimpers* I'm so far behind I don't even know who's alive anymore.


Nevertheless, I've got some conclusions on what I've read; just ignore it if I ignore someone who's still alive. Also, could I have a vote count? Please?

Again asks for a vote count before making a decision. To be fair, I think that's typical of her.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Thoughts on what I've read.


Saucie/Fea: Cuddling in the corner and leaving us to possibly die. Evil, but not in a furry sort of way, and I believed beforehand that Saucie was innocent so I'll go ahead and believe it.

Roa: Looks....shifty? Jumpy? As she's Roa I don't expect her to leave a big trace but I think I'm reading her correct when I find her evil. Basically just a feeling and of course her vote toDay looked horrible to me. I'd love to analyze her properly but I'm simply too tired, so I'll just have to go with what I've got.

Cabbie: Getting nothing, and that doesn't bode well. Not sure yet though.

Nog: Should go to bed or I'll vote him just so he'll sleep. (Yes, I'm kidding.) I think he could go either way, to be honest.

Dun: Seems all right, but I've not looked at his posts in detail so I'm not sure.

Lottie: Hmmmm. Seems very cute and cuddly, but I'm wondering about her.

Brinn: No idea.

Nerwen: I've got nothing, so she's clearly evil. (Not entirely kidding, btw.)



So basically (again, apologies for not talking/explaining much) I think the following.

Guilty Until Proven Innocent:
Roa

Shifty Eyes:
Cabbie
Nerwen
Dun (?)
Lottie (?)

Meh:
Noggie
Brinn

Innocent:
Saucie
Fea



I'll be away from the computer for a few minutes and then I'll catch up again. If there's anything anyone thinks I need to see please point it out, because I know I've missed a lot of important stuff despite running through the thread a few times. Back soon.

Roa was quite easy to suspect. What strikes me about that post is she says she has 'nothing' on McCaber! Does that seem likely for an innocent?
Accepts Fea and SPM as who they say they are.
Also throws out a suspicion on Lottie and Nerwen with no reasons given.
Non-commital on everyone else; leaves out Pitch (she later explains she just forgot him).

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Voting now. Sorry, but I keep about dozing off and I want to make sure I vote.

++Roa


Fea and Saucie, please consider helping us out. I know you don't have to but we (that is, the innocents) are certainly more trustworthy than the wolves. Just sayin'.

Okay, that's it for me for now. I'll be sure to save up more energy for toMorrow.

Votes Roa. Again, pretty safe.
'We (that is, the innocents)'. Why the need to hammer that home? Like I said, I think the meaning of her statement would have been quite clear without having to say that.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

*loves the moddess(es) anyway*

On a less related note, I need some sleep. Oh, and I realize I left Pitch out of my list yesterDay; it was a complete oversight because I wasn't well. Sorry about that.

To bed with me now. Yay for the lynch on Cabbie, as he was my other top suspect (still, Roa is my first) and I'm glad to know I got something right for once. Maybe if I get some sleep it'll happen again.

So McCaber was her other 'top suspect', yet she had 'nothing' on him Day 3.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Ill+working 60 hours a week=evil. Yes, that makes sense. I admire your intuition, Dun. (Yes, that's sarcasm, you numpkins.

Anyway, I still think Roa evil but I can also understand her getting upset (and thus acting suspicious just out of frustration), so I'll definitely take a look at a couple other people toDay when I get a chance.

Maths. There's eight of us and three wolves. We were very fortunate to get the McCobblerWolf but we still can't mess up toDay, so let's save our energy for important discussions and not waste it on babble, okay?

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

By the way, kudos for still being alive. Haven't done anything of note yet, but we're still counting on you, so keep doing what you're doing and then some!

[/random words of encouragement and yay]



And now off to work with me. Sorry, but I can guarantee I'll be busy again for a while. Back when I can.

Whats's the deal with the ranger talk? I'm sorry, but that just seems to come out of nowhere.

x/d with two Feas and SPM

[satansaloser2005]

Dun:

For clarification, I had 'nothing' on Cabbie as in I couldn't get any sort of vibes off him, which didn't sit well with me because it looked like he was being....too cautious? Not the right word but the right sentiment. Less is more.


Also, I like the ranger. So nyah.


*goes back to work*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Dun:

For clarification, I had 'nothing' on Cabbie as in I couldn't get any sort of vibes off him, which didn't sit well with me because it looked like he was being....too cautious? Not the right word but the right sentiment. Less is more.


Also, I like the ranger. So nyah.


*goes back to work*

Still doesn't explain how he suddenly became your 'top suspect' after he was found to be a wolf.

[Nogrod]

Roa -> Nerwen -> Fea
That was odd indeed. What kind of bothers me the most is that it is so unlike her. I mean I don't remember her panicking whatever her role is - or making hasty moves to that matter (yes she can have temperament but I don't remember her letting it affect her votes). That being said, one is left with wonder whether there is a plan behind that seeming erraticness. Okay, she was dragged away from the desktop by Craydon and that might explain something. I'm very much confused with her... and that is not good at this point of the game.

Lottie -> McCaber
The single most convincing (innocent convincing) part in her posting yesterDay was when he called for not splitting the innocent vote - and then went for McCaber, a known wolf now. And I really can't blame her for voting McCaber.

Nog -> McCaber
McCaber's posting felt foul from the first post on and his submarine playing-style annoys me to be honest (it's a ww playing-style issue, nothing personal McCaber, I like your posting in the Mead Hall fex.).

SPM -> Roa
Lover-reasons eg. "dare to vote for my lover".

Sally -> Roa
She actually says it's "just a feeling" - adding to it then separately that "and of course her vote toDay looked horrible to me". I have thus far thought Sally is just busy and kind of let her fly under my radar, but looking at her voting post from yesterDay does make me want to go back to her earlier posting as well. She might have to had voted when she did (an hour before the DL) but the wordings and stances do not feel entirely comfortable.

Inzil -> McCaber
Seems a reasonable vote. Acknowledges the possible definitiveness of his vote (thirteen minutes before the DL, which might have been a bit premature) which could go either way. Looking back at his posts to find any added reasons for his vote though made me think I should look more closely to his posting otherwise.

Nerwen -> McCaber
Says Roa and MCCaber are the most obvious candidates - and a bit too easy. Gets the "if Roa is a wolf then McC is as well" and adds Sally to the mix in his voting post (if McC is a wolf then Sally or Roa could be, but not both). Practically seals McCaber's death. If she is a wolf with Roa that would make sense (out of two wolves facing the gallows lynch McC and save Roa) - but then again they would be playing a high-stake game indeed with all her pointing towards Roa / McC -connection (& Roa voting her earlier but withdrawing the vote)... Even if I think they might be ones to go to those extremes as wolves, I still think it more probable they are either on different sides or two innocents than two wolves...

Brinn -> McCaber
Has been suspecting McCaber a lot for a while (well she voted him the Day before as well). It looks genuinish. Has Roa as her other candidate but explains why she is not quite sure about her yet. She's one of those I haven't formed any opinion on but need to do it as our time runs out. Unlike other "low-posters" thus far, she looks not only careful but also substantial and reasonable - which is what she is; and which makes her such a great aid to be around you as a friend - and such a dangerous enemy.

Fea -> Roa
Lover reasons eg. "don't you dare to vote me".


What could be learned from this?

The probability of a wolf-on-wolf vote?

Well, those not voting for a known wolf are Roa and Sally and as we have no reason to believe Fea and Spm being the lovers (no counter reveal*) there should be at least one among the McCaber voters.

It would be quite evil-evil for them to all go against their mate; and they were so near making their win so much easier yesterDay (with four wolves around) they probably would have wished to save their mate even taking a risk. Just looking at the numbers yesterDay - with the lovers possibly willing to go for the winning side - they could have diverted the voting away from their mate.

But clearly they didn't.

So who is / are the opportunist/s?

If Roa is a wolf... Then wolves had it tough then after the votes of Spm and Sally as the only ones having votes & suspicion were two wolves. That could make Sally look better actually, as I would think any sane wolf would wish to throw McCaber under a bus rather than Roa. Or could she produce such a cunning plan to make herself look good - possibly counting on the general mood of many others disliking McCaber's low activity thus making her vote insignificant?

If Roa is an innocent... Well Sally looks worse then as I think there were real good reasons to lynch McCaber... and he was a wolf which a wolf-Sally might wished to avoid lynching. Placing the vote after Spm's could be an indicator ("yay, it could be tried after all") - or then not.

Anyway, whether Roa or Sally is a wolf (or both are) the finger would still point towards Inzil, Nerwen and Brinn as one/s willing to save Roa or / and sacrify McCaber. The number of wolves there could be anything from 1 to 3!

But it needs to be one at least.


So to me this looks like a puzzle between Roa & Sally on the other hand... and Inzil, Nerwen and Brinn on the other. I think three of them are wolves as Lottie seems quite better for both because of her rally to not split the votes while voting McC as the first person and because of her honest feeling of anguish yesterDay.

Also I learned in particular that there are just too many people I would have to look back with more care as I see my general feelings are quite... well, general. And there were some things I think call for attention back in there (while I searched for the reasons for peoples' voting yesterDay) I had kind of passed without notice thus far.



* Heh, I just got an awful idea: so what if actually the role of the lovers is a weak one (it says very little in the rules section and the only elaboration of their role is what we have from Fea & Spm) and so the "real lovers" will not wish to come forwards to counter-reveal... Well it sounds a bit overstreching things but maybe Mira or Nienna could actually fill in whether what the two have said about their role is correct? Just to be on the safe side with them - if there is a safe side with them...


EDIT: Good to see you posting people... I'm back around after I get home and so... needs to run now.

[Nogrod]

I kind of hate myself spending time on this Saucie, but I just can't help making this. You guys are just... well, let it not be mentioned as they call this "family friendly" site...

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

That’s really rather up to the Wolves, don’t you think?

So no self-humiliation is enough for you? I actually wrote another non family-friendly sentence here but then realised how true you are... Of course you wait on them to suggest the deal to you - and then you decide whether to grab it or not... of course... So if the wolves "propose" you, you then decide whether to win with them or play it against them. So the power is in your hands. Ergo, there's little we can do as it all hangs with the wolves either proposing you a deal or not - and you either accepting it or not?

Looked from that perspective the following gets into quite a different light...

It’s not at all unsporting from our perspective. Given how difficult it is for Lovers to win, surely you can’t blame us for seeking to make the best of the circumstances in which we find ourselves.

So difficult indeed... all you have to do is to sit back and relax. So let me at least try to rip you from the glory of winning as lovers. There's no heroic in there. Really. "You go through where the fence is the lowest" - sorry the Finnish idiom, but you probably get the meaning.

Come now, Noggie, this is poppycock, and you know it. If the Innocents find another Wolf toDay, then it is very much still game on. If they do not, then they probably lose.

Which I have to take that you will not move a finger toDay but just gloat? Unless the wolves make a proposition to you which you then think whether you accept or not? So whatever we do, it will be your decision how this ends... *weak lovers, hard to win, very sporty indeed...*

And the playing field is not too uneven. The Innocents benefit from our revelation in that they have the advantage of being able to eliminate us from their enquiries (and I hardly think that it is in our interests to give them any further advantage). The Wolves, on the other hand, know that we are open to offers, should the situation arise whereby we can both share the victory.

So true (as a depiction) and so wrong (morally)...


Okay, to be honest... and no offence. I just had to make this to calm down in front of your annoying opportunistic neutrality. I can see & understand what you do, but I would have expected some sportsmanship from you two...

Wouldn't it be even more fun to say "Hi there, we're playing for the village toDay... let's see to whom shall we play toMorrow" instead of waiting around whether the wolves would like to end it all with a deal made toDay - and making everything and anything we do toDay totally redundant? And a most boring last Days as everything is just awaiting the execution of the outcome?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

You could always try to speed things up by negotiating with the other team.

"What do you say we kill Sauce and Fea and get back to the fun?"

That could be fun to watch...

[The Saucepan Man]

Nog, you seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that our approach guarantees us victory. That is by no means the case. Nor is it the case that the Wolves can simply waltz in and guarantee themselves victory, not toDay at least. There are risks for them in trying that. And, as my better half has already pointed out, they might well prefer to take a risk and go for the sole win anyway.

What would you have us do? Play nobly but suicidally? If we start trying to point out Wolves, do you think that they are really going to let us hang around for much longer? They might choose not to anyway. But really, I hardly think it unsporting for us to try play the hand of cards that we have been dealt as best we can.

Now, let's hear no more of this. If you are innocent, you should be out hunting Wolves rather than bemoaning perfectly valid strategies just because you don't agree with them.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Nor is it the case that the Wolves can simply waltz in and guarantee themselves victory, not toDay at least.

Heh, they can't by numbers... toDay at least, but they can make a pact with you toDay to ensure their/your shared victory toMorrow...

You know that.

There are risks for them in trying that.

I can see that. And actually I lay my hopes on that risk being too big for them - your erraticness could just turn it over to our side as well. What I try to say, it is just up for your grabs. Well until either side wishes to do away with you... (and that I can see as your only fear) it then becomes a question which side could afford trying it - and it seems not to be an easy question to answer... I mean how could I count for other innocents to take my side if I rallied against you - or whether the one remaining of you would not kill one of us (well me, out of annoyance to your roles as you seem to vote)? Divide and conquer? Right? Anyone rising up against you would be your first kill-target. Nice way to keep people from trying it in a situation where every death counts.

And anyway, the wolves can make a pact of trying something in concerto during the Night but we can't - and as the results are non-fathomable there is no real motive to try you...

What would you have us do? Play nobly but suicidally?

For example that... or just playing true to your count as innocents...

If we start trying to point out Wolves, do you think that they are really going to let us hang around for much longer?

You just said yesterDay that you had one or two of them at crosshairs... now you say you don't... Slacking are you, because of the comfort of your status or just bluffing for nothing (no wolf would have actually believed you with the threat; now why would they have as you should not have any more information anyone else of us has?)

I mean this looks awkward...


Mira!!! Nienna!!!

Please tell us if what these two said about their roles is true. I mean we are entitled to know the rules even if all is not told in the set-up roles section.

But really, I hardly think it unsporting for us to try play the hand of cards that we have been dealt as best we can.

I'm not denying it - and I think I said it already before. How come you didn't catch it?

If you are innocent, you should be out hunting Wolves rather than bemoaning perfectly valid strategies just because you don't agree with them.

I have been doing it the last hour and I will post soon to say what I think... sorry for the diversion.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Please tell us if what these two said about their roles is true. I mean we are entitled to know the rules even if all is not told in the set-up roles section.

Though you won't trust my word for it, I assure you we checked and double-checked everything prior to publicizing.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Though you won't trust my word for it, I assure you we checked and double-checked everything prior to publicizing.

Fea is indeed correct. Everything they've said about the rules is the truth.

[Nogrod]

Just trying to make sense of the main points in my earlier post...

The wolves had yesterDay a situation of 4 (wolves) + 2 (shifty innocent counting) lovers against 5 real innocents. Had they managed to lynch an innocent they would have been at 4 + 2 + 3 toDay (with a succesful Night-kill) and a deal with the lovers would have been remarkably easy toDay - I suppose (looking at how Saucie and Fea react).

It is doable to them even with the numbers we have toDay, eg. 3 + 2 + 4, but not so easily anymore - I hope. And the wolves should have known that.

So that makes me think the wolves wished to save McCaber - and thus the one (or two) last just had to give up her/his or their hope as s/he or they saw there was no easy way out? (as there needs to be at least one wolf among the McC-voters - and especially if Roa is a wolf too!)



That to my mind lays heavily on Roa & Sally.

(heh, if Spm and Fea are wolves it would fit nicely indeed and be the coup of the century... but I would like to hear the full rules on the lovers from the authorities before making any further suggestions along those lines.)



Of the McCaber-voters one must be a wolf - and it's possible there are two in there. All of them had good grounds to vote him as the suspicion was so largely shared by then - so none needed to pull an effort to say s/he suspected McCaber. So what other matters were there?

Loslote - as I said looks more genuine than not. One could say it was the first vote thrown and as such an easy one, but it would have been a daring deed indeed - looking at the situation where the wolves would have loved to keep their numbers intact for a possible victory on the next Day... so putting the probable / possible wagon rolling doesn't look like an early-voter wolf's strategy - especially as the lynch would be decided on just a few votes anyway and so adding to the pile that early would be really risky as things might develop ortherwise as well and the sacrifice might not have been needed.

Inzil - if you read his posts from page 10 you get an odd feeling where he kind of repeats the words others have said or were just plain accepted common views (and right in that!); that McC had surely earned a vote / no one can argue he doesn't look suspicious / gives an uneasy feeling, but also that he is: "too easy a vote". But he clearly tried to continue with his suspicion of Lottie as if looking whether that could bite in the end - and leaving him an open door not to vote for McCaber. Finally he came up with hinting on thinking Roa more suspicious, and being conscise that his vote might break the game - even if there clearly were at least some votes to come, and he only made McC one vote ahead...

Nerwen - I've mentioned her theory of the relations between McC, Roa and Sally. And it makes sense indeed; I think / hope I have managed to open the implications of it toDay a bit further. Also her vote was quite like the deciding vote which could speak good for her. My only problem with her is that she could be one of those few - if wolves with Roa - that could come up with such a strategy (note Roa's vote for her backtracked!). Well, if it is that way I will kind of humbly offer the win to them as they deserve it in that case. Or should I? The thing against her is mainly quite bad: being too on spot of things all the way, like making "too good" speculations on how the wolves would act very early on - as that was something she spent a lot in the early hours of the game. But looks to me more innocent than evil.

Brinn - Makes decent points about the lovers, suspects Roa (because of her vote-switch - which I kind of am ready to buy Roa's explanation of) and McCaber (from the earlier Day on). Voices doubts on Lottie and Nerwen (needs to see better, she says). Later "slightly concerned about Sally", defends Roa's vote for Nerwen (although says Nerwen is okay in her "book"). She goes to and fro a bit too carefully and sends McCaber to his doom as the second last voter (she probably din't cross-post as there were five minutes between her post and the one before hers) - while everything was already settled. It looks pretty hard to figure her out: her reasoning looks fine but her timing looks just evil (if trying to find unhappy McCaber -voters that is)!


We have three wolves - those making cases against someone or trying to slip through! So three cases are plain wrong (including Sally & Roa) So a consensus is no proof as the wolves would love to hide themselves within a consensus...

Looking at the possible "winning scenario" by the wolves and the reality I'd say Inzil and Brinn look the worst from the McC voters (the first made a decisive thing out of his vote when it was not so, and the other had it easy to just confirm what was inevitable) - but it doesn't make Nerwen innocent either (it was pretty decisive but still she could have realised her position and do it to make herself look better as there were scarcely good-looking alternatives).

So

Sally or Roa?

Inzil or Brinn?

There should be three within them...

I'd call Lottie and maybe also Nerwen okay for toDay...




ADD... Okay. Seeing Mira confirm the rules I'll drop my scenario of the two being wolves...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nog

Heh, they can't by numbers... toDay at least, but they can make a pact with you toDay to ensure their/your shared victory toMorrow...

Well, that surely depends upon whom you lynch, doesn't it.

Originally Posted by Nog

You just said yesterDay that you had one or two of them at crosshairs... now you say you don't...

I said that I was confident of having pegged one, possibly more. That remains the case. That doesn't mean that the Wolves won't take the risk of attacking one of us, particularly if we start making it more difficult for them than we already have.

Originally Posted by Nog

I'm not denying it - and I think I said it already before.

Right, so stop whinging and get on with it.

Edit: Crossed with the Nogster, who I see is getting on with it. Fair 'nuff.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Spm

Right, so stop whinging and get on with it.

I might return the compliment by asking what have you done? Oh but you were having such hard times winning as lovers... I totally forgot that... it's such a thing, forcing you to the edge of your cababilities, taking all your time, offering such challenges... Oh I must bow to you after this game as you're such hard-working winners... only up to your personal cleverness! Heh, the stupid villagers and the magnificient lovers! Oh, you deserve this for your own effort and glory!

The set-up or the general good-will on you playing for a long time (with the horrendous experience you had the last game) had nothing to do with it, but only your ingeniousness, hard work and sheer brightness of reason did it...! Oh, I bow on your altar mighty lovers... you're just so... super!


Blah... I'll stop whining right now.




EDIT: Okay, edit with your edit Spm... Not a fair deal perhaps, but withdrawal accepted... and some of the fury tempered...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Inzil - if you read his posts from page 10 you get an odd feeling where he kind of repeats the words others have said or were just plain accepted common views (and right in that!); that McC had surely earned a vote / no one can argue he doesn't look suspicious / gives an uneasy feeling, but also that he is: "too easy a vote". But he clearly tried to continue with his suspicion of Lottie as if looking whether that could bite in the end - and leaving him an open door not to vote for McCaber. Finally he came up with hinting on thinking Roa more suspicious, and being conscise that his vote might break the game - even if there clearly were at least some votes to come, and he only made McC one vote ahead...

To clarify, Nog, when I said something along the lines of 'this vote could make or break the game', I wasn't speaking of my vote in particular, but the collective vote; which, had we gone for an innocent, would probably have led to the end of the line. I was musing aloud, trying to reason who looked worse at that time, Cab or Roa. Does it look like prevarication? It wasn't.
Nor is this:

++Sally

I appreciate your analysis; I haven't had a chance to look at much toDay. To me, Sally is by far the best wolf-suspect right now.

x/d with SPM and Nog

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I might return the compliment by asking what have you done?

A great deal actually. As has my other half. We have just chosen not to share the fruits of our labour with the Village.

Sorry, that's just the way that it is, I am afraid.

[Nogrod]

Okay. I have a wake up call in five hours hours so I need to vote now.

Blah, I'd want to stay and see what happens when others actually come online as that might help a lot... (it's quite frustrating to interact only with a lover who could stab you in the back at any minute).

Looking at it now, I must say my strongest suspicion is that the wolves wished to keep McCaber around to offer a clear deal to the lovers toDay (with four wolves to bargain the votes for).

So it would call for Sally or Roa being a wolf - or both of them - willing to either divert the bandwagon from a fellow wolf (Roa) or confusing the crowd and make oneself looking good (Sally).

Pushed to the decision, I'd say Roa's decision was more honest-looking. She had said she would be hampered during yesterDay already beforehand as Craydon would be visiting her and she said she was practically grabbed away from the computer - and that could explain her odd actions: after the sudden revealment of Fea and Spm and having only minutes to share she might actually have flipped. And she voted for Fea... which actually looks like pure retaliation out of frustration... something a wolf might rather not do.

Heh, I could vote for both Fea and Spm anytime to let this game go forwards in normal manner and not just waiting whether they decide to end this game or not with a deal with the wolves! So I kind of can see her sudden feeling if she was an innocent as well... that doesn't prove anything, but of the two she looks less bad... and she's more helpful anyway.

But Sally then... well that's a different story... she had Roa as her "feeling bad" suspect but that was it? Roa's vote looked odd, but did she really think a wolf-Roa would have done that? Honestly? Okay, it was odd and we might have time to think of it only now (in relation to the RL things she told us), but would you say a wolf-Roa would have been that erratic and basically calling suspicion on herself? Okay, I don't know... she might even do that, but I think it less probable than Sally catching up the situation and trying to capitulate on it with a McCaber-mate possibly going down - and making a real alternate choice for lynching (look at the placing of the vote!).

Also what Inzil spotted about her saying of McCaber: first she had no idea of McCaber, and then she was claiming he was her second best choice as it was more or less clear he was gathering quite a suspicion. So how did he make it the second best without her saying anything of him? Looks crooked...

GAhh... I hate to vote like Day after Day to one preceding my vote... but I do think we hit the mark with...


++ Sally


Who the two others are? No idea - expect of what I have said toDay.

Hoping to meet you toMorrow - with a wolf less...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

A great deal actually. As has my other half. We have just chosen not to share the fruits of our labour with the Village.

That's what you say...

[satansaloser2005]

*rolls eyes, tries to not get too upset at the fact that, yet again, she's finally able to devote a bit of time to the game and is being punished for it*


Votes:

Dun (dun dun)-->Sally
Noggie-->Sally

Sally: 2
Village: 1 (for killing Cabbie)
Wolves: 1,592,683 and counting


I'll see what I can do between now and my meeting; hopefully I won't fall asleep.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and Noggie? Go to bed.

*gets to reading*

[The Saucepan Man]

How about an alternative candidate?

++Roa

Just to keep things interesting, you understand.

[satansaloser2005]

I must say, I like it a lot better, considering the following.

• Killing Roa means not killing Sally.
• Killing Roa gives a chance of killing a wolf; killing Sally dooms us all. (Barring a stellar ranger save, of course, which won't be bloody likely even if I am alive.)
• Killing Roa could answer some interesting questions.
• Killing Roa means not killing Sally. (I know, I said that one already, but it's the big one for me so nyah.)

Anyway have to leave soon but may try an analysis. We'll see how it goes.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by sally

(Barring a stellar ranger save, of course, which won't be bloody likely even if I am alive.)

Well, you've as good as revealed now, so you might as go all the way and see if any alternative candidates come forward.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Well, you've as good as revealed now, so you might as go all the way and see if any alternative candidates come forward.

"You're trying to trick me into giving something away. It won't work."

"It has worked. You've given everything away!"



Which is to say, bwah? I'm just saying that ranger saves are enough of an art and if we get a wolf toDay (as opposed to getting lil old ordo Sally) we don't have to cross our fingers and hope the Ranger Fairy comes through.




Also, why do you and Nerwen both have little red things in your avvies? I'm not saying it's for the game (necessarily) but I noticed it and was curious. Reason?



Drat. I went through all Brinn's posts but haven't typed up reactions yet and I have to leave in a bit. I'll have to get it done when I get back but if I remember correctly I actually found something quite intriguing. More on that later.


*dashes off to put on her cape and save the day....erm, I mean go to a meeting*

[Inziladun]

Since Sally's beating around the bush with 'I'm-not-saying-I'm-the-Ranger-but-I-really-want-you-all-to-think-I-am', let's have this out: I am the Ranger.

It's getting pretty late in the game here. We still need three wolves. If I can aid at all in helping the village to focus on the wolves, I'll do so. And I think this may accomplish that. I'm well aware of the consequences, believe me. I'm quite willing to go down for the village if it means bagging a wolf. And Sallywolf could well lead you all to the others.

[Nerwen]

I'm thinking of voting Sally, but here's my problem. Inzil is heavily after her, and from here he looks, if not exactly guilty, at least the guiltiest of the McCaber voters. See his posts at #369, #385, where he seems to be suggesting that McCaber is perhaps being framed.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Like I said, I don't believe anyone could reasonably argue McCaber has not been suspicious. At the very least he has been consistently unhelpful.
I think this is the last thing he's said toDay thus far.

1. Originally Posted by McCaber
2. I'm here too, by coincidence.

Nothing else. I know he's quite adept at being a quiet wolf, so why does this give me an uneasy feeling, like I'm overlooking something?
Trouble is, I don't know who else would be better. Roa's interactions with SPM on Day 1 could look more sinister, knowing what we know now. And the vote toDay doesn't help. It could indeed have been out of frustration with this vexing situation, but still....

and

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I see SPM made good on his earlier threat to vote Roa for threatening his beloved with lynching.

So we have votes for McCaber (2), Roa (2), and Fea (1).

I don't trust Roa at the moment, but SPM's vote can't be considered an indication he thinks she might be a wolf, because we have no way of knowing which side he's taken. However, there are still more innocents than wolves, I think, so it's in the lovers' interests to help the village.
[B]McCaber just seems too easy. If innocent, he's perfect for wolves[/B], because he's really does look like he could be a sly wolf cruising through quietly, while so much else has occupied our attention, as Nerwen said.
This could well be the vote that makes or breaks the game, so I'd really like to get it right.
Now Sally's gone for Roa. I wonder if there's anything to the way she made sure to note that she meant 'we' to refer to the village. I think her meaning would have clear without that.

Innocent trying to puzzling things out? Wolf making a last attempt to bring in another candidate? It could be either, and if the latter he was certainly very subtle about it, and everything he says is perfectly reasonable. But still, it makes me a bit uneasy...

I answered it with this:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh, that was rather a wicked-looking comment of Sally's... I wonder if she could be one of them? Not really much for or against it, but that's because she's been a submarine.

Meanwhile, the two most obvious lynch-candidates are Roa and McCaber, and in different ways both of them look a bit too easy... but then anyone else would be almost random.

The thing is, I think if Roa is a wolf, that implies McCaber is too, anyway, because otherwise he would be a nice, easy lynch for her.

Upon which he promptly voted McCaber.

Innocent who'd had his doubts answered? Wolf who realised he couldn't save his fellow without giving himself away? Again, could be either.

There's nothing whatever sinister about his vote, mind you– at the time he cast it, it broke the tie between McCaber and Roa. Recall that the third vote on Roa came in exactly at DL, and was from Fea, who had apparently disappeared hours before.

(Note that we don't know Roa's role, however.)

EDIT:X'd since SPM at #435. (I had to do some stuff in the middle of composing this and forgot to refresh before posting.)
EDIT2:fixed bolding, added comment.