Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[Lalaith]

Some really good analyses here.
Caran, your point about the Rune/Glirdan connection is interesting. (And your analysis of me makes me sound a right schoolmarm - how depressing)
Saucie's stuff is very impressive and persuasive - would a wolf/guilty party go to so much trouble? I can't help thinking they wouldn't (which is why I also absolved Diamond, ironically enough, for her Saucie attack).
But on the other hand, with Saucie, you just never know.
Firefoot - I too had noted the Durelin/Saucie connection. It could be significant, or it could just be nothing. Actually of the two I feel more worried about Durelin.

However, my chief worry today remains Gurthang for reasons already stated, with Glirdan as runner-up, partly due to his own disingenuous behaviour and partly due to the point Caran made.

[Kath]

To my critics: I know, I have a bad habit of forgetting all about the game until around 7, and then using what other people say rather than coming up with my own ideas. Tis why morm always ends up suspecting me.

Still, I have some time on my hands right now, so I shall go about doing a couple of those analyses I said I'd do, starting with Glirdan.

Post 12 - drunk sailor style, throws occupation based suspicion my way.

Post 27 - complains about the rum being gone (love that line ) and then says and eye should be kept on Gurthang, again all in drunk style though, so unlikely to be serious.

Post 40 - votes for me. Seems to be a random early Day 1 vote.

Post 106 - says Eomer's death wasn't a surprise as the Wolves wouldn't have wanted him around for long, which is a fair point.

Post 132 - gives a voting tally, says we should not look at Nilp voters now but wait until we see how they vote again. Thinks it is more likely that wolves would have picked up on the Eomer bandwagon than the Nilp one. His reasoning for not looking at the Nilp voters was that they were more likely to have random reasons and while this is true, I don't see why the wolves could not have come up with random reasons as well. Before Rune's death I would have said that it would be a very bold wolf who votes Eomer in the Day and then kills him in the Night, but it seems we've already had one of those, which may make TGWBS a wolf as well if the same 'oh they'd never do that' reasoning was applied.

Post 135 - Analyses Tali finding some things to be suspicious of. Those points aren't of much use now as Tali has been revealed as innocent, but there is something strange in the way Glirdan picks up on the seeming inconsistency between Tali's not wanting to vote Eomer and then doing it. It is possible to change your mind in an hour or so, seeing new posts and developing new ideas. Glirdan didn't seem to take that into account. In this post he also suddenly backtracks on his earlier decision not to look at the Nilp voters after this was challenged by morm. Perhaps a little hypocritical after the suspicion he just put on Tali for a seemingly similar thing.

Post 136 - analyses Rune and decides there is nothing supicious other than him purposefully bandwaggoning. This could be Glirdan analysing Rune to make sure he's mentioned him, and making sure to find mention some suspicion to serve him well if Rune ever died. Has a suspect list of Tali followed by Rune, presumably because they're the only people he looked at. Defends his analyses against Gurthang.

Post 139 - analyses Lhuna, finding nothing suspicious other than her vote for Eomer, which being Lhuna was likely due to history. Mentions that all the Eomer voters had been very quiet and suggests that is kept in mind, though why I'm not sure. Seems to be an attempt at causing suspicion where there is none.

Post 140 - analyses TGWBS, again finding nothing other than a comment about wanting to live in harmony with the wolves, obviously an in-character comment. This though causes TGWBS to jump up his list above Rune, who he seemed to have more reason for suspicion over. Again possibly Glirdan trying to keep Rune as a suspect but make sure he wouldn't get lynched.

Post 143 - analyses Diamond, and was the first to suggest the first poster is often wolvish. Doesn't like that she went after Eomer, but I think that was biased by hindsight. Then finds her less suspicious, before finding the reasoning behind her vote for Eomer very suspicious. I then become a little confused, as his list had two TGWBS's on it, one supposedly meant to be Diamond. Either way, again Rune is bumped down the list. Again defends his analyses, this time against Caran, saying it used to be his usual way. Did anyone ever check on that?

Post 146 - bit of banter with Diamond, saying that even if it is not true that wolves post first, she is still suspicious. Fair enough as his suspicion of her does not rest solely on that point.

Post 148 - again banter, this time with Caran, saying he wants to be seen as equal with everyone else. Could be a wolf trying to ensure a good level of suspicion, or one trying to ingratiate himself with people he knows to be innocent.

Post 193 - agrees that it would be interesting to see whether the wolves post within the first 10 posts (as Glirdan himself often does) but says no one will do it. It is possible that he has a bad record with that as a wolf, and doesn't wish people to do it in case it brings suspicion upon him, but that is rather tenuous. Says his vote for me was purely random based on occupation, I think in answer to morm though I can't work that out. Confused by TGWBS's 'Glirdan = Not sense. Good' post, understandable I suppose though the meaning seemed obvious. Or maybe I'm just too used to TGWBS. Finds Holby worth looking at due to her vote for Nilp, you know, those people you weren't going to look at? Anyway, has some good points and at this time is unlikely I think to have suspected her as Seer if he is a wolf, so it could just be trying to support suspicion of a known (to him) innocent. Starts to pull Rune back up his suspect list, perhaps due to real suspicion, perhaps due to needing to be seen to be noticing him.

Post 196 - does a list of how many posts each person has done and separates them into groups and highlights Eomer and Nilp voters, drawwing suspicions from it. I'm not sure how this works, as the groups aren't evenly split, and those he chooses as suspicious seem odd. While there are 3 Eomer voters in the first list he only picks two of them, deliberately ignoring TGWBS (possible protection?), and from the middle group he picks more Nilp voters than Eomer voters, even though he has previously stated that the former shouldn't be looked at yet. Decides to vote for an Eomer voter because 3 Nilp voters have already been voted for, and picks Lhuna over Tali.

Post 222 - says Jenny's death was random, but then argues against that, saying the wolves may have thought her to be the Seer. Bit odd, he seems almost to be arguing against the idea that Jenny's death was random, except that no one had actually mentioned it. In fact they'd had no opportunity to as he was the second poster that Day after TGWBS, and all he said was 'Alack'.

Post 237 - says he wasn't surprised Sauce would start to be suspected, nor that it was Di doing the suspecting. Says that he himself has been suspicious of him, odd as there hasn't been a single mention so far, but thinks he should be left alive as he is a very useful innocent. It's strange reasoning since most of us know the trials of a wolvish Sauce, and he is more dangerous when evil than helpful when good. Some banter with Rune over past games, again possibly just keeping up appearances, seeming quite happy to drop part of his suspicions. Explains why he asked TGWBS to explain his statement.

Post 244 - annoyed at lack of talking. Thinks morm has been getting too bold and then begins to build a case against him, finding his 'gunning' for just three people suspicious, especially since he is so certain over his suspects. Then develops the theory that both Ang and morm could be wolves, doing some wolf on wolf voting (disproved now by morm's death). Says Rune (what happened to the suspicion over him?) and my points make him inclined to suspect TGWBS, mostly due to his quietness.

Post 264 - defends himself against Tali, saying he isn't trying to lead the village but simply give his opinions. Well fair enough, but he hasn't half talked a lot. Also says he wasn't the only one unsurprised by Eomer's death, again in answer to Tali. Also defends his analyses of Lhuna and Rune, saying he had decided to find Eomer voters suspicious, but found those two the least suspicious of the 5. Strange reasoning, if you don't find someone suspicious, don't put them on your list. Has some odd reasoning over Sauce still being alive, that the wolves should have killed him the Night before. Yet earlier he has said it is likely the wolves thought Jenny a Gifted, so why would they choose someone less likely? Uses this reasoning to explain his suspicion of Sauce, something I really don't understand and think quite suspicious, as if he is trying to build up a case with nothing to use as foundations, but is determined to do it anyway. Could be an innocent, as most people end up suspecting Sauce eventually, but could be a wolf trying to cause people to suspect him. Also seems to be a rather sudden switch from thinking it would be better to leave him alive in case he's innocent.

Post 266 - votes morm on a gut suspicion, for being too bold. After the previous posts worrying over Sauce, it seems odd that he voted for morm instead. Perhaps he was more confident of getting a bandwagon behind morm than Sauce, which worked.

Post 316 - says he had thought Holby innocent but not the Seer. Why did he say this? There was no need for it, we know he didn't suspect her but pointing it out is odd. Also complains that she spoke about Sauce in her final post. Again mentions the dilemma over Sauce, whether to leave him alive in case innocent or to kill him in case guilty. Asks Diamond to analyse him, perhaps because he can't find the reasoning that would make a case, or because this way he knows it will be done by an innocent (presuming that Diamond is here) and so he can't be picked up on it later.

Post 336 - says Di's analysis has convinced him that Sauce is a wolf and Di is not, but that there could be some way the two are working together. He never makes a concrete statement. You think he does with the first bit but then always finds a way to challlenge it. Is inclined to think Ang innocent except for his theory that one of Ang and morm are wolves and since morm was proven innocent it would follow that Ang is a wolf. Then switches to Ang to Sauce being the wolves because they've been flying under the radar. Lots of random suspicion seemingly designed to keep Sauce in the frame.

Post 344 - analyses Ang, finding some of his early banter about killing the pirates odd. After this sees nothing suspicious, and can't work out why morm felt that way. Then suspects Ang for pointing out the obvious that the wolves would be in the bandwagons. Again hypocritical as Glirdan himself did that at the beginning of Day 2. After this though decides that Ang is innocent, though it is possible he is pulling a double bluff - again nothing concrete. Having lost one suspect, decides to look at me.

Post 351 - decides not to bother finishing his Ang analysis, either because he has decided he is innocent and can't build up a case, or because he is a fellow wolf and going any further would put too much suspicion on him. Switches to me, saying that I use other peoples views to form my suspicions (yup) and that I don't put out my own theories (often yup). So fair points there. Thinks Ang's vote for Eomer could be viewed as suspicious as it would make for a perfect defense if pulled up on it. Again some hypocrisy, as after mentioning that I use other people to form opinions, he does the same thing over Sauce via Di.

Post 356 - votes Sauce, having gone against his earlier idea that it is better to leave him alive in case innocent due to Di's analysis.

Post 365 - again an early post, saying he thinks Di the lover (overexcitement from a wolf glad to be rid of the wildcards?) but finds Fin's death odd. I don't like these questions over why people died, they seem too much like a wolf trying to gauge the reaction from the village so that he can later agree with it.

Post 368 - claims memory loss over Fin being a known innocent in the manner of Durelin. If he knows her to be innocent then it would be a good tactic. Still arguing that Di was the Lover.

Post 391 - says his suspicion of Sauce has eased after the analyses, perhaps because Di is no longer there to aid him in his crusade, or indeed because they are fellow wolves and he feels that he has put enough pressure on to be safe if Sauce is lynched. Again mentions suspicion of me for not using my own reasoning. Still some suspicion of Ang because of what morm said, ahem, hypocrisy again I feel. Nervous of Tali and Caran because they could be the innocent Lover, a fair point. Thinks Gurthang and Durelin are probably innocent, though we seem to have no reasoning for this.

Post 392 - officially clears Tali, the first concrete thing I have seen from Glirdan all game, so that in itself seems odd to me. Tali was cleared for not defending anyone, but he's a clever player, and it is possible that he is flying so completely under the radar so as not to incriminate his wolvish comrade.

Oh thank goodness the boy's stopped talking! Or should I say the wolf, as I have become rather convinced that he is one. I've played a few games with Glirdan and I'm sure I've never seen him so flip-floppy. He accuses people of doing something and suspects them for it, whilst doing the same thing himself. He has no concrete suspicions at all. He attacks often with gut feelings rather than logic, and he has not been at all consistent over any of his suspicions.

Now that took so long I am going to have to go. I hope to be back to analyse Ang or Sauce or both, though I think my ideas on them will be based on whether Glirdan is innocent or a wolf.

[Firefoot]

Actually of the two I feel more worried about Durelin.

Me too. Since (if they were lovers) they would both die anyway, I would definitely say lynch Durelin. Sauce (if innocent) is way too helpful to lynch and then be wrong about. Of course, it's possible that he's a wolf and not affiliated with Durelin, but I have hitherto thought him mostly innocent and am looking at connections. As for him going through all this work... well, if he astounds us all into thinking him innocent, I reckon it works...

[Durelin]

It could explain where Durelin was getting her Rune suspicions from - Sauce tipped her off? Wolvish compatriots wouldn't know the difference, and she would just look like an innocent with a lucky guess.

Cause of course I am completely unable to feel out who the wolves are in any situation on my own...

Excuse my hormonal rage, but really, I'm offended that you suggest that I need SPaM feeding me clues to do anything right...

Go ahead, lynch me for my indignation.

I feel like going with Ang on Firefoot right now, but...

Glirdan's been bumped up to my main suspect because of Gurthang's wailings about the gallows. I don't think a wolf would pay so much attention to the fact that a good number of people are suspicious of him, particularly when there aren't yet any votes for him. Also, Glirdan's latest analysis of Taliesin is a little...random, at least to me. Trying to turn eyes back to the known innocents is indeed a little odd at this point.

Alrighty then...my next post will probably include my vote.

Edit: Cross-posted with Firefoot.

[Firefoot]

Just so you all know where my suspicions are at right now:

Glirdan
Durelin
Gurthang, Ang, Lalaith (about equal)
Sauce, TGWBS
Kath
Caran, Taliesin

Right now, vote will probably go to Glirdan or Durelin, depending on others' thoughts (I'm still trying to figure out just how likely my theory is... on one hand, it's the only theory for a lover pair so far...).

[Caranlondien]

Hmm. I feel completely lost. Of the remaining males, I'm most suspicious of Gurthang and Glirdan. The females, I just can't decide on. If I were to go by a Sherlock Holmes-ish process of elimination, I'd be left with Firefoot. But I have to admit I could have missed something about Lalaith or Kath. And I'm afraid I may be too hasty in eliminating Durelin from my suspicions.

So far our only vote is Anguirel for Firefoot.

I'll be around for a while yet, so I'll hold off on voting.

[Lalaith]

I'm thinking along similar lines, Caran, but I would rather lynch Gurthang. Firstly because he still seems more suspicious to me - that gallows business doesn't convince me, much as I love Captain Jack - but also because it will have the added benefit of telling us something about Saucie.
He (Saucie) incriminated Gurthang fairly comprehensively in his post....it would be a very strange wolf-on-wolf thing to do when they were one down.

[Durelin]

but also because it will have the added benefit of telling us something about Saucie. He (Saucie) incriminated Gurthang fairly comprehensively in his post....

It would be nice to find out about Saucie...

But I'm going to go with who I feel is a wolf:

++Glirdan

[Gurthang]

Wow. I thought it'd be a one horse race toDay. Well, not like a race can really go anywhere on a ship. Sorry I wasn't here earlier. I didn't have time to make a post before work like I usually do.

The female thing is very interesting. A good thing to look into, I think. Although, there are a couple gaps. The possibility remains that Caran is the ordo-Lover. Also, since I still think myself likely to be lynched toDay, it would be a rather risky thing to pursue. Eleven people left toDay. We lynch one, an innocent, and that leaves 10. Nine after toNight. If you lynch one of the unknown females each of the next two Days, and even get the Lover or Lover-wolf, that leaves us with 4 left the next Day... and still with two wolves left, so we lose. I like the idea in theory, but I don't think we have enough time left for it to work.

I'll be back about a half hour before the deadline, as usual. Accompanying me will be my vote, also as usual. More likely than anything it will be for Glirdan, as he's looking the most wolvish of anyone.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

In-character stuff; explains biblical reference.

#77: Votes Nilp because otherwise we'll never figure him out.

Day Two

#107: Wonders what Nilp was thinking. Wonders why the wolves killed Eomer, a prime lynching candidate.

#138: Explains her vote for Nilp, says it was senseless but any vote at that time would have been.

#145: Curious about morm's early vote for Ang. Thinks if he's right he'll be killed as the Seer, if wrong the wolves are laughing with glee.

#164: Labels Durelin borderline. Thinks Caran, Holby, Fin, and Lhuna innocent.

#183: No verdict yet on Kath. Thinks Jenny innocent, could be Hunter. Wary of Lalaith. Borderline on Diamond. Thinks if Gurthang is anything, he's a lover. Says Form seems detached. Borderline on Glirdan, thinks Rune is too unsure to be a wolf. No idea on morm. Ang is on her suspect list, but not a major suspect. tgwbs is borderline leaning innocent.

#192: Thinks one of the people who voted for neither Nilp nor Eomer is probably a wolf. It seems that Lalaith is her main suspect.

#204:

Yeah... not comfortable with this at all. I'm here till the deadline; still not quite decided about my vote. Formen and Lalaith are both likely candidates but if I have to vote Lhuna or Holby to save myself I will, even if I won't like it.

#214: Votes Lalaith. Glad she didn't have to vote Holby or Lhuna to save herself.

#218:

Holby's vote doesn't really surprise me... even if she is an innocent. When it's yourself, a known innocent (at least to yourself) versus someone else who you only think is innocent... well...

Day Three

#228:

With four wolves and a lover still here, we now have a 5/16 shot at catching a wolf (since the wolf dies with the lover). That's pretty good odds... which is good and bad, I suppose - good because we have a reasonable chance of catching a wolf, bad because it means we haven't caught any yet...

#246: Says she had suspected morm might be the Seer, but since he was switching around in his suspicions he probably wasn't. Defends her vote, doesn't know what to think about morm's boldness, wants to look at voting record.

#256: Defends vote again. Says she may not be back, votes Durelin.

Day Four

#299: Looks at voting from yesterDay, thinks it unlikely we have bold wolves because there are few opportunities for wolf-on-wolf votes.

#300: Notes that wolves nearly always vote.

#305: Notes that in more recent games wolves nearly always vote.

#307: Discounts theory that SpM is innocent because he went after Holby during the Day instead of at Night. Thinks he is innocent for other reasons, though.

#328: Notes that known not-wolves don't know any more than the rest of the ordos. Thinks Gurthang brought up a good point about Rune.

#338: Takes Durelin, Kath, and tgwbs off her list of suspects. Doubts the Lovers will be doing much accusing of each other.

#342: Suspicious of Rune.

#352: Doesn't want to vote off a list of doom. Becoming suspicious of Glirdan.

#359: Votes Rune, who already has 4 votes, compared to SpM's 3.

Day Five

#393: Tells Glirdan not to worry about me or Taliesin being one of the lovers. Thinks Glirdan is becoming increasingly suspicious. Proposes using gender-ratio to find the Lovers.

#399: Thoughts on Durelin develops SpM-Durelin lover theory.

#400: Considers the SpM side of this possible lover-duo.

#403: Considers lynching Durelin; would prefer to lynch her than SpM.

#405: Lists suspicions:
Glirdan
Durelin
Gurthang, Ang, Lalaith (about equal)
Sauce, TGWBS
Kath
Caran, Taliesin

------------------------

Nothing overly suspicious, nothing overly innocent. Maybe I'm just shot. Oy vey. I have to swab the deck (coughmowthelawncough), so I can't hang around much longer.

[Caranlondien]

I actually will be able to get back near deadline if I get on with my deck swabbing now, so I can continue thinking and try to keep the voting on course at the end.

The voting so far:
1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)

[the guy who be short]

Sorry for coming in late. I was checking out Tolkien's University.

I don't really have time to do anything except steal other people's theories, like Kath.

So, I'm suspicious of Gurthang, Firefoot. I think SpM and lal are innocent.

[Lalaith]

I'm going out now, and won't be back until well after deadline. So I will cast my vote now, for the reasons I stated above, and I hope that whatever happens tonight will be the best for the village.
++GURTHANG

[the guy who be short]

++Gurthang

Not sure if I can be back later, so it's best to vote now.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hola friends and fiends! I am back.

Some jumbled ramblings, based on the events that have passed toDay since I was last here.

Glirdan’s suggestion to look at the known non-Wolves to see if one of them might be the innocent Lover is of concern as it would waste time that should be spent looking for Wolves. He also seems to be assuming that one of them definitely is.

But I get the impression that Glirdan is being far too careless to be a Wolf.

Firefoot’s suggestion that gender may help us seems to be directing us towards the females, which speaks in her favour as there are less unknown females than males. Then again, I suspect that Durelin (who I am now convinced is innocent, of Wolfishness at least) is one of the Wolves' targets toDay, so it by no means clears her (Firefoot) in my mind. My picks from the “ladies list” would be Kath and Firefoot.

Some reference has been made toDay again to Jenny’s suspect list, but I don't think that it will actually help us much in eliminating possible Wolves. Form was her most likely target and, since it is better from the Wolves’ persepective to kill the Hunter off sooner rather than later, I think that they would have been willing to take the risk of killing her, even if one or more of them was on her list. My ancestor and his Wolvish comrade (an ancestor of Caran’s brother) did much the same when Wolves.

Kath’s analysis of Glirdan is rather damning, I feel. A real hatchet job. Glirdan’s suspicions are all over the place. He is doing a lot of talking but not really going anywhere as his suspicions keep changing. Then again, I am wary of this particular analyser, Kath. I tend to think that Glirdan is the Wolves' other target for lynching toDay (with Durelin) and that a Kath-Wolf has been doing her utmost to bring this about (and good job, too, may I say ).

And, although there are many good points in Kath's analysis, this one is breathtaking:

Originally Posted by Kath

I've played a few games with Glirdan and I'm sure I've never seen him so flip-floppy.

Ooh! How can you say that? He was the original flipper flopper!

Another excellent analysis, this time by Caran, a relatively trusted source, with Firefoot as her subject. And despite Caran's conclusion, I think that it makes Firefoot look rather suspicious, and thus strengthens my own suspicions of her. She defends her votes rather a lot. She has appeared outwardly helpful, but some of the things that she has said look designed to spread confusion (for example, about the Wolves’ motives for killing Eomer). She labelled four unknown innocents as innocent in #164 (if a Wolf, she would know). This and some of the other things that she has said (for example that she thought morm might be the Seer) look to me like they might be calculated to make her look good without giving too much away.

That said, Gurthang still looks the most Wolfish to me, based on my analyses posted earler toDay. And I don't buy his "being resigned to being lyched" act. It's most likely a ploy designed to try to save himself. My vote is most likely to end up being cast in his direction.

Back later with my vote.

[Caranlondien]

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)

As if you couldn't tell that yourselves... I just have to have everything spelled out explicitly, I'm compulsive that way.

I'm going to look back over Gurthang and Glirdan myself, since I seem to be on an analysis roll. I do wish I felt more certain about the women of the village, because I'd like to take advantage of this gender-ratio while we have it. But I don't find any of them overly suspicious.

Cross-posted with SpM... who I so very much want to trust, because I'm agreeing with everything he's saying.

[Taliesin]

Why hello there, you're favourite known innocent is back!
Erm.. nevermind that.

Some quick thoughts:

I want to thank Kath for her Glirdan analysis. I've been watching him the last days as has been and is one of the most likely wolves in my opinion. The analysis strengthened this suspicion. I'm confident Glirdan is a wolf.

Firefoot brings up a great point about the Durelin / Sauce relation. Sauce does a very good job of keeping Durelin between the odd 'I'm watching her' and the 'She seems innocent'. Never really confirming her innocent, but never giving any theory about her wolfishness either.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Firefoot’s suggestion that gender may help us seems to be directing us towards the females, which speaks in her favour as there are less unknown females than males. Then again, I suspect that Durelin (who I am now convinced is innocent, of Wolfishness at least) is one of the Wolves' targets toDay, so it by no means clears her (Firefoot) in my mind. My picks from the “ladies list” would be Kath and Firefoot.

Again, Saucepan Man here defends Durelin trying to clear her of any suspicion, while throwing suspicion on two other unknown females.

I'll be right back with a list of suspicions.

[Glirdan]

Well, because my butt's fried (along with my brain ), I'm not even going to bother defending myself. I'm going to cast my vote for

++Saucy

He's still far too suspicious in my eyes. That and Taliesin has brought up a good point in his post. Saucy has been protecting Durelin far too much. And Durelin hasn't voted for him. I wonder why? Possible Lovers perhaps?

[Taliesin]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

He's still far too suspicious in my eyes. That and Taliesin has brought up a good point in his post. Saucy has been protecting Durelin far too much. And Durelin hasn't voted for him. I wonder why? Possible Lovers perhaps?

Actually the honor belongs to Firefoot
I'm merely copying her point.

[Kath]

Hmm, not sure that I'll be back again before the deadline so:

++GLIRDAN

For the reasons I gave earlier in my analysis.

It took me so long to do that thing that I have no time to do Sauce or Ang right now. I'll try to get them done for tomorrow but I just know they're going to have talked as much

[Caranlondien]

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)
5. Glirdan-->SpM (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
6. Kath-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 2, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)

Left to vote: Caran, Firefoot, SpM, Taliesin, and Gurthang

I'm tempted to go with SpM's comment that Glirdan is being too careless to be a wolf. Gurthang I've been suspicious of for a while now. I wish I could read Firefoot better...

[Taliesin]

Durelin -- I thought her innocent for a long while, but now I’m not so sure. Firefoot’s point about her being the innocent lover is really convincing. I don’t suspect her of being a wolf, since she actually started the Rune bandwagon yesterday and voted for Glirdan today. She might very possibly be the innocent lover, of Sauce in this case.

Caranlondien – Known innocent. Not much more to add. I don’t suspect her of having a furry lover at all.

Kath – Pretty much sealed Glirdan’s fate I would think with her extremely helpful analysis. However since Glirdan was already a likely candidate, could be a wolf trying to look innocent for the following days. Not cleared of suspicion yet.

Lalaith – Seems honest about her concerns. I must admit she’s been off my radar for the last days. I think her innocent.

Gurthang – I’m suspicious of him aswell, there’s a reason obviously he’s been gathering votes. I don’t have anything to add besides what others have said about him.

Saucepan Man – Extremely helpful player. The problem lies within there aswell. Because he’s so helpful, people get scared to lynch him or even voice suspicion about him. I have to agree, it’s true, killing off an innocent Saucy is a bad move. But he worries me, yet again today with the case against Durelin and Sauce, it’s becoming more and more obvious that he is a wolf. Besides, our ranger has been dead since day 1, why is Saucy still alive? ( Yes I fully realize, it’s not fair to base suspicion on previous accomplishments and lynching someone because of they’re fame is unfair. But this is another thing that bugs me… ).

Glirdan – Wolf. I’m pretty damn sure of that. For reasoning I want to refer to Kath’s post (#402) and my own a few days ago (#257).

Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short) – I can’t say he worries me at the moment. Seems innocent.

If I make it through the Night, I'll take a look at Anguirel and Firefoot tomorrow.

So, and I'm going to shamelessly copy Saucy's form .

Possible Wolves: SpM, Glirdan, Gurthang.
Could go either way: Anguirel, Firefoot, Kath.
Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS.
Innocents: Caran and Durelin (SpM's lover).

++ Glirdan

Let me be right on this one, please .

edit: very obvious spelling error

[Firefoot]

Then again, I suspect that Durelin (who I am now convinced is innocent, of Wolfishness at least) is one of the Wolves' targets toDay

This is the second time he has used that phrase toDay: "of wolvishness at least." Doesn't want to lie? Also, I've been suspecting Durelin since Day 3, so my going after her toDay shouldn't be suspicious in itself - I remember that you absolved Durelin of suspecting Rune because she had been suspecting him for a while...(coughdoublestandardscough).

I'm going to be here until the end, at any rate. Still haven't decided who I'm going to vote for.

[Firefoot]

++Glirdan

I'm just going to go with my original suspicion... I don't suspect Gurthang enough to vote for him, and Sauce will only be lynched if every vote but his goes to him. I'm doubtful of that.

Firefoot – 1 (Ang 1)
Glirdan – 4 (Durelin 2, Kath 6, Taliesin 7, Firefoot 8)
Gurthang – 2 (Lalaith 3, TGWBS 4)
Sauce – 1 (Glirdan 5)

[Caranlondien]

I'll be very interested toMorrow (or you all should be, if I'm dead) about that vote of Firefoot's. It's made it impossible to lynch anyone else, given that Gurthang would hardly vote for himself. I'm just pointing this out in case Firefoot and Gurthang are the lovers...

[Caranlondien]

For what it's worth, here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I was planning to vote this way, but wanted to wait and see the votes of others.

[The Saucepan Man]

Glirdan looks to me to be the fall guy here.

Gurthang is quite possibly a Wolf. But Firefoot almost certainly is.

+ + FIREFOOT

[Gurthang]

Interesting. I'm at least glad that others are suspicious of Glirdan, too. Maybe I'm not doing as bad as I thought... although, it isn't certain yet that we're right. Be just my luck.

Anyway, I've been thinking more about the female thing. Really, if we want to do it, we'd have to start toDay. I'd prefer Firefoot or Lalaith. Firefoot, well, I guess I'm like Kath and Guy in that respect. But Lalaith being the ordo-lover just seems to fit. Although, we're winding down, so if we want to do it, it'd have to be pretty quick. (EDIT: This doesn't make sense now. See Note below.)


Well, seeing as everyone has voted already, no point in me waiting either. Especially since mine doesn't make a bit of difference now.

++Glirdan

1. Anguirel-->Firefoot (Firefoot 1)
2. Durelin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1)
3. Lalaith-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 1)
4. tgwbs-->Gurthang (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2)
5. Glirdan-->SpM (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 1, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
6. Kath-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 2, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
7. Taliesin-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 3, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
8. Firefoot-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 4, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
9. Caran-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
10. Saucey-->Firefoot (Firefoot 2, Glirdan 5, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)
11. Gurthang-->Glirdan (Firefoot 1, Glirdan 6, Gurthang 2, SpM 1)

Note: there were about five votes since I started this post. Had change the voting list like four times.

[Glirdan]

Ha! You're all in for a surprise. I'm not a Wolf. However, that doesn't matter anymore. But heed my advice: Lynch the man with the pans!! May Eru have mercy on your souls!

[Gurthang]

Just saw an error in the list I just placed. Should read 2 instead of 1 after Firefoot in the line with my vote.

Glirdan, we'll see. I really hope you're lying.

[Cailín]

Day is now over.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by SpM

Glirdan looks to me to be the fall guy here.

Gurthang is quite possibly a Wolf. But Firefoot almost certainly is.

+ + FIREFOOT

I think you may be right... I'll probably die toNight, so I'm just saying it here, I'm strongly suspicious of Firefoot and Gurthang now.

Edit: cross-posted with Glirdan, who seems to have confirmed SpM's theory that he's not, in fact, a wolf.

Edit2: oops, sorry Moddess!

[Cailín]

At the start of the day, Glirdan had accidentally stumbled into Weslamond's and Pirate Roberta's hidden supply of rum. Seeing as they were both deceased and had never tried to kill him (well, not really), he decided he might as well consider himself their unofficial heir. With a satisfied smile, he confiscated the bottles and brought them up to the deck with him, now considering himself properly armed against any threat that might come up this day.

After properly dumping Fin's body (according to her personal health regulations), Sir Horatio immediately launched into a series of passionate speeches about the guilt of several of his fellow passengers. It was almost enough to silence the rest of the passengers. Except one.

"*hic*," commented Glirdan reprovingly. He took another swig of rum and eyed Taliesin suspiciously. "You innocent? *hic*. Nonsensical."

The others tried and failed to ignore him.

"*hic*," continued Glirdan. "You know, *hic*, Fin is the Lover of Weslamond and *hic* Sir Horatio is their err… dog, yes, *hic*, I say we lynch them all."

"You are aware that two of those you mentioned are already death?" inquired Lalaith.

"*hic*?"

Kath rolled her eyes. "I am so tired of him. He's obviously a wolf hiding under perpetual intoxication."

"*hic*," slurred Glirdan. "Am no wolf." He pointed at Sir Horatio with his half empty bottle of rum.

"I agree," said Taliesin.

"Glirdan's guilty," said Durelin.

"Am. No. Wolf," stated Glirdan confidently. "Also, am not intoxicated."

Funnily, none of the passengers seemed ready to believe him. The poor drunken sailor, lying slumped on the deck, was soon surrounded by the entire crowd, staring at him menacingly.

"You stole all the rum!" yelled Caranlondien.

"Yes, why is the rum gone?" plagiarised Gurthang.

"*hic*," said Glirdan questionably. "It's right there. We can all share."

With an engaging smile, he handed the bottle to Firefoot, who was standing nearest.

"Liquor is evil," Firefoot lectured. She stared at the bottle for a second and then swung it in the air, aiming for Glirdan's head. As soon as the bottle hit its target, the passengers heard a sickening crack and Glirdan lay dead, still smiling. Of course, they should have known that drunks are awfully bad at keeping secrets. Glirdan had none. He was as he appeared.

--

Captain Cailín's Log

Never drink rum, children. It's very bad for you.




~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4
Findëasëa - ordinary passenger, ripped in pieces in shower during Night5
Glirdan - ordinary passenger, struck down by liquor at the end of Day 5


~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Caranlondien -- ships's bartender
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)


Night 6 has now started. Bla-di-bla, you know what to do.

[Nogrod]

Caranlodien was having a nasty feeling that she would be the one tonight. But then again, what reason to live had a bartender when all that could have been tended was lost? And what about this ship of terrors: could someone call this living anyway? She frowned as she descended to the hold, cursing Glirdan and feeling sorry for him at the same time. But even as she wasn’t so much afraid of death as such in these circumstances, she was a bit worried about whether it would hurt. Had he left just one barrel... and I could get really drunk, reeally drunk. Then I wouldn’t feel anything.

She took a look around the hold. Alas! There was one small barrel still left! But to her disappointment she had to settle with quite an empty one. Who cares! Little is better than nothing, she thought and took a considerable draught straight from the barrel. Let them come, let them come...

And surely Caran was right. The wolves came. Caran was sitting in the corner of the hold with the almost empty rum-barrel in her arms as they slowly approached, their wild eyes gleaming and their breath stinking incomprehensibly foul for yards away.

“Wethinks you were talking in the evening that you wished for a Sherlok Holmes-ish process of elimination concerning the females on board. You remember that?” asked the biggest one of the wolves.

“W-w-ell, ye-s”, Caran managed to mumble. She had expected them to come, she had prepared herself to this all night. Nonetheless, she fas terrified of the hairy monsters presence. Not to say that she was totally perplexed by the biggest wolf’s question.

“We love to fulfill people’s wishes”, grinned the smallest one, revealing her terribly sharp teeth.

“You will just have to deduct what it means that we will grant you a Sherlok Holmes-ish process of elimination of females”, hissed the third one, staring unrelentlessly to Caran in the eye.

“But, but there’s only me and you here!” Caran exclaimed panickingly.

“Bingo!” howled the smallest one. “You made the first! Of the females you are the one to be eliminated tonight”, it added triumphantly.

“Promising student” the third one commented, accompanying the smallest one.

Suddenly the biggest one grasped Caran from her hair and yanked her up with brutal force. It roared to her ear: “You listen carefully!” Simultaneosly it threw Caran against the wall. Caran thought flashingly that she had broken at least a couple of bones. The pain was just excruciating. The biggest wolf took a step towards her. “You see the barrel there. You will be in it soon.” It said and picked the rum-barrel, holding it before her painstricken eyes.

“So how you will fit into that small barrell?” asked the smallest one who had sneaked beside the biggest one. “There’s some inferences to make”, it grinned maliciously.

“Remember you have two left, the process and the elimination”, called the third, hoisting a mincing machine it had picked from the shelf. “Here’s a hint for you!” it almost laughed it’s last words.

The mincing machine was just too much for Caran and she fainted.

“Bad stock these youngsters today” commented the the biggest one frowning.

“Yeah, can’t stand everyday household utensils”, grimaced the smallest one.

“And fear simple inferences too”, the third one was already laughing out openly.

“Allright. Let’s cut the crap and do something”, said the biggest one and threw the barrel to the smallest one. It cut Caran’s throat with it’s fangs and then poured all her blood carefully in to the barrel the smallest one had opened. The third one came with the mincer and then they minced the rest of her.

“Processing...”, grinned the third one while they minced her.

“Eliminating...”, smiled the smallest one as they threw the rest that could not be fitted into the barrel to the sea.

In the morning the passengers found Caran missing, but there was no body anywhere either.

But there was a small rum-barrel on the deck. Taliesin seemed delighted with the sight and ran to it: “Look, Glirdan didn’t drink it all! Maybe we should take a sip each and think about this afterwards.” He took the barrel and opened the cork and immediately felt the smell coming from it turning his bowels upside down. “I guess I’ve found her” he mumbled and dropped the barrel. He threw up before reaching the railing...

----------------------------------

Captain Cailín's Log (revisited)

Never drink rum, children. It's very bad for you.

----------------------------------

~The dead ~
Nogrod – sub-mod, ripped into pieces of flesh and bones by the werewolves on Night1
Cailín – mod, forced to walk the plank at the end of Night1/ the beginning of Day1
Nilpaurion Felagund – ranger, lynched himself at the end of Day1
Eomer of the Rohirrim – ordinary passenger, replaced the main topmast during Night2
Lhunardawen - ordinary passenger, overcame her seasickness by force at the end of Day2.
JennyHallu - Hunter
Formendacil - ordinary passenger
Mormegil - ordinary passenger, found fault in the ship's structure at the end of Day3
Holbytlass - Seer, killed by the wolves during Night 4
Diamond18 - ordinary passenger, brutally devoured by Screaming Eels
Rune Son of Bjarne - Wolf, pierced by Durelin's dagger at the end of Day 4
Findëasëa - ordinary passenger, ripped in pieces in shower during Night5
Glirdan - ordinary passenger, struck down by liquor at the end of Day 5
Caranlondien - ordinary passenger, poured and minced into a barrell of rum during Night6

~The living ~
Durelin -- eye-borrowing Jounin instructor
Kath -- plotting slave
Lalaith -- Football Widow
Firefoot -- wandering traveller with a dog that dislikes pirates

Gurthang -- Plank Operator
Taliesin -- criminal who was set adrift
Saucepan Man -- Rear-Admiral Sir Horatio Potboiler
Sir Anguirel Spens (Anguirel)
Friedrich Engels (the guy who be short)


Day6 starts now. Carpe diem!

[the guy who be short]

So. I would go over everything my chief suspects, Gurthang and Firefoot, have said, but I'm far too busy.

[Gurthang]

When I was waiting for Day to start, I noticed something towards the end of the Day yesterday that caught my eye.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

That said, Gurthang still looks the most Wolfish to me, based on my analyses posted earler toDay. And I don't buy his "being resigned to being lyched" act. It's most likely a ploy designed to try to save himself. My vote is most likely to end up being cast in his direction.

Back later with my vote.

And then,

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Glirdan looks to me to be the fall guy here.

Gurthang is quite possibly a Wolf. But Firefoot almost certainly is.

+ + FIREFOOT

I'm just wondering, was there anything specific that changed your mind, Saucepan?

I think it might be relevant to note that we have 9 people left on the ship, and 4 among us do not have everyone's best interests at heart. Not a good situation. We really need to get a wolf toDay.

[Durelin]

Bleh.

Lynch me. I can't believe I (seemingly) started a bandwagon.

And you'll probably really want to lynch me now, because of what I'm about to say.

I'm feeling that Firefoot is a wolf.

...Yep, I'm agreeing with Sauce again.

[Lalaith]

Glirdan got five votes so not everyone who voted for him can have had bad motivations. It would of course be a lot easier to work out just what was going on yesterday with the Glirdan bandwaggon if we knew the status of the other lynch candidates.

Taliesin is now our only remaining known innocent. It is interesting that the wolves killed the two female innocents first. Are they trying to encourage us for some reason to carry out the female-lynching plan? Was Caran considered a better kill for some other reason, or was it just coin-tossing? I don't know - I'm tired and I'm going to bed. I'll be back tomorrow morning with better thoughts, I hope.

[Durelin]

And Durelin hasn't voted for him. I wonder why? Possible Lovers perhaps?

And of course I would if he wasn't my 'Lover,' whether I suspected him or not.

Go down the list of who I haven't voted for and I doubt SPaM's the only one on it that's still alive...

Sorry! I promise that's the last thing I have to say about the absurd 'Lover' idea concerning myself (hopefully).

[Firefoot]

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Sauce is a wolf. I'm not at all comfortable with Durelin. Or Lal and Kath. However, I think it's likely that only one of Lal and Kath is a wolf, since it was Lal who pointed out that wolves don't often vote - if I was absolving one of her cohorts, I don't think she would have objected. I'm probably more suspicious of Lal than Kath right now.

I just don't have much clue what to think about the remaining male members. On one hand, Gurthang has never really appeared suspicious to me, but I'm wondering if I haven't just been letting him slide along, since everyone else pretty much has been suspicious of him. TGWBS and Ang I've never been able to get a good hold on.

I guess the only bright patch in this whole situation is that one of the bad guys counts for the good guys team... so even if we screw up today, we're not dead yet. Surely, with a 50-50 shot at catching a wolf, we ought to be able to do something?