Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Celuien

I know that things look a might odd for me. I defended my girl on the first day and was hesitant to vote for Nogrod. With a record of defending what turned out to be two wolves, I must look like the evil wizard. I'm not. I defended Naria on the first day of this madness only because she was my daughter. Nogrod had me fooled until Roa's insight. But if someone comes out strongly saying that I am the EW, I'd suspect that person of actually being the EW trying to deflect attention onto me.

I wonder. Was there anyone else who defended them? Assuming that Naria was not a newly changed wolf (and being quiet, I'd assume she was one of the original wolves), someone who defended both over the first two days could be the EW. Only the EW knew that they were both wolves, after all. Something for me to look into.

Okay, this is the weirdest post I've seen - I don't even know where to start with it.

1) No one has really suspected Celuien yet. She's made appearances on quite a few "possible EW picks" lists, but anyone hasn't made a case against her. Why this sudden need to defend herself?

2) Over than a half of the villagers did not vote for Nogrod. Why would this look remarkably bad just for Celuien then? Because she happened to defend Naria, too? A lot of people make mistakes, but if you freak out and start explaining your actions even before anyone has suspected you, it looks weird to me.

3) So, the EW is likely to be someone who has acted like Celuien, but it's not her, and anyone who accuses her is probably the EW. Right... A bit like if I said that if anyone suspects me to be a Wolf, they must be Wolves themselves. Are you trying to scare people from analysing you by hinting that they could be the EW?

4) Celuien's theory is that someone who has defended both Nogrod and Naria could be the EW, but she's so busy with defending herself that she doesn't check if there is anyone like that than herself (except a bit later; she didn't find any). Besides, it rather contradicts with what she said the Day before yesterDay:

I wonder if the EW would risk exposure by openly defending a transformed villagers

When phantom said that it might be either way, Celuien replied:

That's true, but I think that there are less suspicion raising and simpler ways to make a good defense against wizardry. Unless the EW is a very bold, very brash sort, of course.

This post by Celuien makes me really uneasy. I'll go doing some rereading now.

[Celuien]

Well, no, Valier and Morm both thought I was suspcious yesterday. And while I was locked in my cottage last night pondering the fate that has fallen on us, I began to wonder if the EW had been defending its creatures. Then it occured to me that I might look decidedly EW like, so I thought I'd answer it off the bat(tledore) to avoid a pointless argument over if I were or not.

It's not meant to stop anyone from trying to analyse me. Not in the least. Thing is, I thought I had a method of EW spotting, but one that I couldn't put forward without looking like it myself, so it was offered with a defense.

And I am perfectly allowed to look at things from different viewpoints. I didn't think yesterday that the EW would have been brazen enough to defend anyone of the transformees. But in light of circumstances, I wondered if it was a possibilityand wanted to look into it. All I wanted to do was change my perspective. Phantom was right about a lot of things. I thought that just maybe he was right about that too. Who's to say that the EW isn't brash? There's at least one candidate present who would fit the bill.

[Cailín]

I was in desperate need of a suspect / impressions list for myself, since I fear I am losing overview. So here it is:

Diamond -

Voted: Loki, Nogrod

She has said a lot these past few days, and not everything is relevant. However, she appears to be genuine. I do believe that the wizard who chose Nogrod, Naria and Loki might have picked Diamond18 to be his/her wolf as well. However, I am inclined to say she's innocent. Noteworthy that she voted for the winning candidate on both days.

Celuien -

Voted: Lommy and Lalaith

Another one who speaks a lot, yet slightly more suspicious than Diamond. In hindsight, her votes do seem a little odd. Lalaith is explainable at that time but though she provided a rather extended analysis of Lommy before voting for her, I don't think it was very reasonable. However, twas Day one, so who is reasonable then?

There is something about her that makes me uncomfortable. I am not putting the wizard past the frog, if you get my meaning.

Caranlondien -

Voted: Loki, Nogrod

There is less information on Caran. She has posted regularly, but said less than some and even her voting pattern underlines her inclination to go with the crowd. She was suspicious of Lommy, yesterDay, as well. She has been clarifying things, tallying votes but provided few theories of her own. I do not think her particularly guilty, but not very innocent either. She might just be a little overwhelmed.

Roa Aoife -

Voted: Nogrod.

What a fierce attack on Nogrod and what a victory indeed. Roa has played a remarkably clean game so far: voting twice for the wolf and defending the innocent. She is not cleared yet. This game is far too dynamic to believe her innocent. I do think it is unlikely she is the Evil Wizard, though, which is good in itself.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant -

Voted: Lhuna, Oddwen

Spawn has been able to remain inconspicuous. Her analysis has been less involved, but this is a large village and dynamics are completely different. Voices of reason seem usually rather lost in our situation.
However, I must admit that both Spawn's votes seem a little 'throwaway' in the masses. YesterDay, I myself was too stubborn to believe Nogrod could be a wolf (bad quality of mine) because I would not have made him a wolf. I can hardly judge people who did the same as me. But I am going to keep a closer eye on Spawn. She is different, somehow. Yet also no primary suspect.

Kath -

Voted: Lommy, Nogrod

Now I am pretty sure Kath is not a wizard. That can be ascribed to one of these feeling thingies, but also because she is seemingly not quite committed to the game. She would be my choice for a wolf, which is why I continue to regard her with some suspicion. However, her short posts are rather to the point. I'd wish to seem some more thoughts from Kath, but she might just be innocent after all. (No! She must be guilty! She must be!)

Lommy -

Voted: Nogrod

Why do people suspect Lommy? Because she has a tendency for drawing negative attention. Sorry Lom. I must agree with what Eomer said in the first place: the EW must be mad to choose Lommy as one of his wolves. However, the EW is certainly criminally insane (Nilp after all?) and he might have done it. I think not, however. I think Lommy is innocent.

Lhunardawen -

Voted: Eomer, no vote.

Lhuna, where art thou?
She might be wolvish. I'd vote Eomer if I were a wolf. In other words, I am clueless.

Glirdan -

Voted: Oddwen, no vote.

Well, Glirdan is gone I believe. He is also no wizard. Nor a wolf. I am quite convinced of it. It is strange that there has been no bandwagon against him as of yet and maybe we should start one for tradition's sake.

Valier -

Voted: Loki, Oddwen

Personally I greatly respect Valier as an asset for the good side, since she does have the most unnatural instinct for pointing out evil wherever it may try to hide. Currently, her instincts are either failing her or she has already been recruited for the forces of evil. I will have to see how she continues contributing toDay.

Sleepy Ranger -

Voted: no one, Fea.

Another silent one. Extremely silent, I might add. I cannot say much about him.

Kitanna -

Voted: Loki, Nogrod

Some great contributions yesterDay. As I hope she will marry my son before this ordeal is over, I wish to believe her innocent. She would, however, be a good pick for the EW. I am giving her the benefit of the doubt.

Firefoot -

Voted: Lommy, Roa

She defended Nogrod almost passionately yesterDay. I think she is likely innocent. Actually, she is far too adorable to believe her capable of any mischief. In short: her defense of Nogrod even after he was doomed and her continuously helpful contributions convince me that she has the village's best interests at heart.

Alcarillo -

Voted: Nogrod

My husband… yes, indeed, he does not say much. He is a good listener though. Has to be, after having been married to me for so long. I do not find him as suspicious as some, mainly because I do not think his defensiveness -though that is definitely noteworthy- nor his in character posts to be so wolvish. Be assured, however, that I shall be watching him very closely. Just one misstep and…

Cailín -

Voted: Oddwen.

I can hardly analyse myself. I am innocent, though.

Oddwen -

Voted: no vote, Lalaith

Yes, I find her silence and unhelpful behaviour highly suspicious, as can be gathered from my votes. I still cannot excuse her; she remains high up on my suspect list.

mormegil -

Voted: Kath, Nogrod

He seems a little less rash in his conclusions concerning guilt and innocence than usual, and I like that. His case against Eomer toDay was reasonable and brave to put forward and he has been right a lot so far. I cannot discount him as a possible wolf or wizard, but I think he might just be innocent. Since I tend to suspect Mormegil no matter what, I might not be all that reliable.

Feanor -

Voted: Loki, Roa

Isn't Fea wonderful? Her votes are totally off and yet she appears more innocent than anyone in this village does. I regret objecting to having her in my family at all. Well, anyway, she comes across as an innocent, though I have heard rumours that she can easily hide her evil nature. She is not my primary suspect.

I am still not discounting her as the Evil Wizard, though.

Zali -

Voted: Loki, Nogrod, Eomer

Hmm Zali… I am sorry I have to accuse you of anything right after phantom, whom you clearly adored, died, but you are starting to worry me somewhat. Yes, you did vote for Nogrod, but only after he was (practically) already doomed. Same goes for Loki. And now you just jump up at Mormegil's theory -not only that- if you are mistaken, he is to blame. That is a bit weird. However, considering the lorebooks… you are always suspicious.

Jenny Hallu -

Voted: Saucepan Man, no vote

JennyHallu is also slowly rising on my suspicious list. She has not said much yesterDay, which makes me hesitant to judge her, but I know she'd be a clever pick for the EW and she has done nothing that really speaks for her innocence. I also find it interesting that her vote for the Saucepan Man on Day 1 was more or less ignored by the crowd.

Lalaith -

Voted: Loki, Oddwen

Lalaith is a very clever woman, we all know that. Despite the fact that she appears to be helpful and thoughtful as usual, I find something a bit different about her. I am sorry, Lal, but I continue to find you a little suspicious. Her canon fodder theory has been the topic of discussion for quite a while now, but I don't find anything odd about it. I do find it a little odd that she decided Loki fit that description.

Eonwe -

Voted: Nilp, no vote

Silent, silent. Unlikely evil.

Eomer -

Voted: Nogrod

Oh dear. Eomer, promise your mum you haven't meddled with dark forces. Promise? Please? (in other words: as usual, I have difficulties judging which side Eomer is on. I see the sense behind Mormegil's words, but when I personally scrutinize Eomer's posts, I come up with nothing. He might have an unhealthy obsession for wizardry, but is that enough to condemn him?)

Nilpaurion -

Voted: Nogrod, Valier

Phantom believed Nilp might have been a wizard. I do not. His lack of voting for himself is noteworthy, but I ascribe that to him being happily married for once. I do not trust him at all, but who could?

I'm pretty confident about my vote, though.

++Nogrod

I am quoting this because I found it very interesting indeed, especially because the vote was not repeated the Day after.

Gurthang -

Voted: Lommy, Nogrod

He is a little silent and I am not used to that. Still, I find no reason to particularly suspect him as of yet.

--

Wow, that took me quite a while. At least I do not think I missed anyone this time.

[Lalaith]

I've got to do some reading of overnight posts now, but I thought I'd just mention this: after my suspicions of Oddwen yesterday, I did a little lorebook studying, because despite her being my ward, it is a long time since her branch of the family and mine actually had much to do with each other.

What I found was that her ancestors have often behaved this strange and elusive way, whether infected with lycantrophy or not.
Which is helpful.

Well, more later once I've caught up.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, I must go now, so I guess I must vote.

++Azaelia of Willowbottom

I find her today most odd. Voting for the most possible bandwaggon target while covering her tracks make her look too . . . wolvish.

Besides, from what I've read of her she's pretty smart, though often underestimated. Makes for a promising EW target.

Good day!

[Lalaith]

Oh, and here are some notes I have made to keep track of events and get my own thoughts straight, which might be of help to others.

Night One: Three wolves were created, one turned back.

Night Two: One more wolf was created, adding to original two.

Day Two: One wolf (Nogrod) is killed.

Night Three: A wolf is created. A wolf (Naria) is killed.


Was Naria a Night One wolf? Was Nogrod? Would the EW have risked cursing Noggie on Night Two?
Our two remaining wolves - one is almost certainly the one who was cursed last Night (Three). The other - is s/he a Night One or Night Two wolf? It is quite possible that both wolves now living, were innocent on the first day.

As for the changed wolf, there are three possibilities:
1. Loki was telling the truth.
2. It was Saucie.
3. S/he is still among us. If 3, should they come forward?

Last night the Seer had his/her first dream. Could this have been of Naria, which information was then conveyed to our brave Hunter? Or did he seek her out due to his own suspicions?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'll put my input on the changed wolf issue now.

I believe Loki's claim. I also believe that among the throngs of ignorant villagers who voted for him DAY 1, one (or more) bad guys helped push his bandwaggon.

[Cailín]

If I understand The Great Moderator correctly, the Hunter did not pick his target at all, which means the Seer will probably have dreamt of someone else.

But I admit I did not really understand what his post implied.

[Lalaith]

*baffled*
Cailin, what do you mean? The story post?

Here's the order of events according to the rules:
Order of Night Activities:
1. Evil wizard picks whom to curse.
2. Good wizard pickes whom to scry.
3. Affected players are informed of results of #1 & #2 (if both wizards pick same villager, this phase gets longer but is completed before the next phase begins).
4. Ranger picks whom to save.
5. Seer picks whom to dream.
6. Hunter picks whom to hunt.
7. Werewolves pick whom to kill.
Note: Steps 4 - 7 can happen simultaneously, but will be recorded by the moderator in the order as listed so as to keep the game straight.

So the Hunter could have picked his hunt according to the Seer's dream. And in fact, going over this order, Naria could have been the wolf turned last night.


Oh, and furthermore, I've just realised that it is logically possible for Nogrod, or Naria, or Phantom himself, to have been the turned villager.

*puts head in bucket of cold water*

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

The evil team picked the phantom to kill. The good team picked the phantom to be the hunter. Werewolves trying to kill the hunter get killed. So the good team was really lucky.

If this raises rancor, I apologize. It was a call I had to make, and it was the same principle I used in my dry runs. I did admit to being a little dicey on how to use the Hunter, so this was how I used the Hunter. Expect the same in the future of this game.

Thank you, that is all.

This is what I was referring to...

[Lalaith]

I'm sorry, I'm going mad. Where did LMP put that post, I can't find it. *sobs*

[Lalaith]

Ok, found it now. *dries eyes*. Sorry.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ok, found it now. *dries eyes*. Sorry.

Easy now, dear.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hahahahahahahaha!!!!!

About time.

I'm not the EW. I'm not the GW. I'm not anything but a tired young man who wants to settle down in a peaceful village. This dream does not look as if it will come true.

Mormegil, I'm trying to think like the EW in order to guess who he/she picked as wolves. Because, in the early going at least, there's no solid logic to work with. It's mostly guesswork. That's why I consider what would be good EW picks and go from there.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I have never had interest in sorcery [see what that means?]

Oh, and the wink was for Lhuna (she knows), and the shield is the shield I wear all the time [in every post].

Phantom, I will miss you so much, my dear brother! You truly were a hero.

And stop accusing my father! I do not think he has been overreacting at all. I'll maybe have something more constructive later; but don't vote for me, because I will die a poor death in the noose and no more, my big blue human eyes gazing sadly at you as if to say "Why? Why'd you kill me?" It makes me weep just thinking about it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh yes, and Spawn is innocent. I can tell because she gets more clinical and devastating when innocent and with nothing to lose. The wolves will kill her, I am afraid.

[JennyHallu]

I find Diamond's readiness to jump to the assumption that the wolves know eachother's identities somewhat disturbing. It is possible, yes, but I don't think Nogrod's attack of Loki shows it. Say Noggie was wolvish night one (probably so, as people found him odd right away): Loki revealed himself as the changed wolf, no one contradicted his claim...it was logical therefore for a wolf to turn opinion against someone who would otherwise be a known innocent.

I also find Lalaith's Saucie-as-changed-wolf option to be odd, because if that were so, I doubt Saucie would have been as ready to advise the village to look askance at the group of players he did, because he would have known the wolf was as likely to select loud players (and now we know quiet players) as anyone else.

As for any suspicions of me...I'm innocent, have been innocent, and Eru willing, shall remain innocent. My vote for Saucepan day 1 was based on the fact that I disagreed with his list, and feared the consequences of knocking so many villagers off the list of whom we looked at. Time has only proved me right: neither Nogrod nor Naria were on Saucie's list.

EDIT: X'd with Eomer, twice, whom I shall not discuss now. Not sure where I stand, and don't want to clutter the village with half-baked thoughts.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

It's too early for me to start making an overall analysis of the Village since so few has posted toDay, and anyone of the villagers can be the one whom the EW picked last Night. So, I'll just point out some oddities from toDay.


1) Morm's post #372
"The wolves probably don't know who each other is and therefore may actually vote for their fellows. I realize that this includes me but it must be said."

I get what he's trying to say, but that's just a lovely way to put it. Enhancing the fact that you bring out a theory against the Wolves (that others have already mentioned) which includes yourself is an old trick to polish the halo above one's head.


2) Celuien's post #378
(In addition to her post #362 which I commented in my post #401.)
"But if you're [mormegil] right, particularly about Eomer being awfully accurate, what does that say about Lalaith? I believe he repeatedly mentioned her as a probable EW pick."

Well, what would it say? That either Lalaith is a Wolf or then she's not. I don't like it when people poll each other without giving their own thoughts. It's just too handy for the baddies to search for possible bandwagonees and people against whom it would be safe to make cases.


3) Fea's post #384
Nilp (or Adam?) said: "Maybe he's [EW] picking from the Ns. You've [Nilp] been cursed, haven't you?"

Fea made a response: "Conspiracy theorist that I am... why does this strike me as trying to kill the shepherdess with a penchant for alliteration? I've denied the 'L's, so now it's 'N's? "

A conspiracy theorist or not, I find it odd that Fea took the quote to be directed to her.


4) Zali's post #387
"He [Eomer] also doesn't seem to be giving much thought to "if I were the good wizard".(though that could be deliberate--he, like others, may just be trying to throw the focus off the GW)"

Why would people say out loud what they would do if they were the GW?

"I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling."

This just doesn't make sense at all. It's a nice attempt to shift blame to others, though. Those who just go with a ready theory and refuse to take responsibility for their vote (like Oddwen yesterday) make me very uneasy.

She votes for Eomer, and let's see what happens after that...

"I hope you all can forgive me for an unfortunate double case of RLcoincidenceopia and TimeZoneitis, and for not giving Eomer the chance to defend himself."

"This is not the way I prefer to play, and I apologize."

"Again, apologies, all."

"I'm really sorry."

Apologizers creep me out. You can consult your lorebooks to find out why.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Oh yes, and Spawn is innocent. I can tell because she gets more clinical and devastating when innocent and with nothing to lose. The wolves will kill her, I am afraid.

I'm devastating?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You know not the power you have, Spawn. That post about Celuien? Brilliant stuff, very biting. You are extremely persuasive.

And very nice observation on Fea. Could be nothing or could be a slip.

I'm off to do some more reading.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Actually, Spawn, your considerations overlap with my major thought of yesterday (which has only been strengthened by what has happened thus far today).

Put short: I'm pretty sure that one of our dearest villagers is hiding a sorcerous secret. Whether good or evil, I genuinely can't decide. But might it be in the interests of the village if the GW comes forward now or tomorrow? If the EW challenges the GW today then the village is left with a Seer and 2 wolves (3 tomorrow) and a huge number of innocents. If tomorrow, then the village will have (probably) a Seer, a Guardian, a whole lot of innocents and (probably) 3 wolves.

It's just the numbers game. We have been fortunate enough to catch 2 wolves already. Going into Day Four and having a couple of gifteds and the standard number of wolves gives us a huge numbers advantage.

I say this because I'm not sure whether I should make my accusation in public, if she does turn out to be good.

But what the hey! I could be the GW and you're very happy to accuse me of EW-ness.

Hmm? There are numerous clues (which I'm not sure, come to think of it, the EW would leave — unless, as Mormegil suspects, the EW is extremely brash).

[Lalaith]

The Fea thing: I think the original alliteration stuff about the Ls was directed at her so it's not really surprising she took the Ns personally as well.

I've read through everything posted today. Here's what I think now.

1. Naria was the wolf created last night. I was trying to think who this wolf might be, and I thought, someone who has not yet been suspected, and someone very unlike Noggie, who the villagers had just unveiled. Naria fits that bill.
Plus, what wolf would the Great Seal pick to be the wolf killed by the Hunter? Makes sense to have it the most recent wolf.(...hope you don't find me presumptious or insolent as to your motivation, O Great Seal, it's just my humble theory...)
So that means that we have a Night One wolf still with us, and the other wolf is a Night Two wolf.
I was really hoping that I could come to the conclusion that both the Night One wolves were now dead, because I don't want to have to go back to read all that Day One stuff again. Sigh. But I fear that is not the case.

2. Call me stubborn but I still don't think Loki was the changed wolf. I can see why the EW would pick him but not the GW.

Jenny, I get your point about Saucie being the changed villager. But logically, I needed to consider all options.

As for the identity of the EW, I agree that this is more important than finding wolves as he is the source of all wolvery. I'm inclined to trust Morm being innocent right now, but that doesn't mean I'm convinced by Eomer theory. And I don't have any real EW theories of my own, although I can give you a list of people I really hope aren't the EW.

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by DSoU

3) Fea's post #384
Nilp (or Adam?) said: "Maybe he's [EW] picking from the Ns. You've [Nilp] been cursed, haven't you?"

Fea made a response: "Conspiracy theorist that I am... why does this strike me as trying to kill the shepherdess with a penchant for alliteration? I've denied the 'L's, so now it's 'N's? "

A conspiracy theorist or not, I find it odd that Fea took the quote to be directed to her.

Actually I took that as a purely in-character response to her occupation, a "shepherdess with a penchant for alliteration". Didn't think it was that odd.

[Lalaith]

So that means that we have a Night One wolf still with us, and the other wolf is a Night Two wolf.

I should elaborate on this, sorry...of course it is possible that Noggie was a Night Two wolf and the remaining wolves are both Night Ones. But I agree with those who think Noggie was created on Night One.

[JennyHallu]

I'd also like an explanation of what exactly the Great Seal meant in that update post. Seems a little odd to interpret it that anytime a hunter is created a wolf dies, Lalaith...that's too clumsy for the great LMP. I'm confused on what exactly happened last night, and whether or not the Phantom selected his kill or had it picked for him, and by whom.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Hmm? There are numerous clues (which I'm not sure, come to think of it, the EW would leave — unless, as Mormegil suspects, the EW is extremely brash).

Correct! And there are only a few among us who would be that brazen to try. You of course are one as I would consider Fea.

Currently I think Spawn is innocent as her contributions are helpful and meaningful.

Cailin also seems to fit into that mold.

I hate that we must always say currently but as the dynamic is such we must remember that people may change from one day to the next.

I am glad to see that we have others thinking for themselves and not merely following the early/easy theory because that is what it is. I placed it early and made it fairly easy for a couple of reasons.

1. I have legitimate concerns over Eomer, but I always do because he can pull off things like this bluff so I will never give him the benefit of my doubt.

2. I wanted to see who would take my theory and run with it, obvioulsy Azaelia is the worst offender there. I think there could be some merit to my theory but I'm not convinced myself that it is true.

3. I wanted to see who would resisit it and who would say nothing as that would tell us something as well. I think Gurthang's response speaks highly of him and shows that he is a critical thinker.

I'm not saying that others who agreed with me, Firefoot, in particular, are not critical thinkers as I find myself often agreeing with theories but there are those who won't do any investigation themselves and we found at least one here.

Basically I'm neither convinced of Eomer's innocence nor his guilt but wanted to get something going today.

Alcarillo is still bothering me and I'm wary of him.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Changed my mind somewhat on the Fea thing (Jenny made me look). I thought that, character or not, it would have been odd to remark on something said previously and not directed at her; but since Fea's post was directly after Nilp's it looks a lot more normal.

Might cross one of the list...

[Cailín]

I say this because I'm not sure whether I should make my accusation in public, if she does turn out to be good.

Please make it public, dearie. Can't have secrets from your mum, now can you?

And truly, if you really have such a strong case, I cannot think it anyone else than a) the EW slipping up or b) the GW wanting to be found.

But of course, you should trust your own judgement. Whether the wizards battle today or tomorrow, I believe the village currently has a major advantage. The only danger I can see is that the identity of the Good Wizard could lead to the Seer.

[Lalaith]

This is what I interpreted from LMP's post - and I think what Cailin also thought:

Phantom was picked as Hunter by the GW but also, before he could get his choice in, he was picked to die by the wolves.
So, a wolf died with him.
If the GW had created a Hunter who had not been picked as wolf-kill, then no wolf would have died.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Mormegil: funny you should say that; we may see eye-to-eye after all...

[Celuien]

My schedule at the Healer's convention may keep me quite late today, and I don't know when I'll next be able to return. Little newly born babies are awfully time consuming.

So, since I've managed a break for the next few minutes, this is the only opportunity I'll have for a vote.

++ ALCARILLO

His defensiveness alarms me. And I still don't find it entirely impossible that Saucy was wrong, despite the last two revealed wolves not being on his list.

Eomer's responses to the accusations against him feel right. He isn't excused, but I too am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

I haven't time now to respond to the various theories and suspicions flying around. All I can tell you is that, like my ancestors before me, I have been passed over by any cursing or sorcery and remain an entirely ordinary villager.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh yes, and Spawn is innocent. I can tell because she gets more clinical and devastating when innocent and with nothing to lose. The wolves will kill her, I am afraid.

Oh, great! According to morm, Eomer is almost always right. Which means that spawn is doomed.

(Maybe this is putting another nail in her coffin) But I do believe her to be innocent. She's making sustance filled posts, and I agree with a lot of what she says. Particularly her points against Celuien in post #401. Those were more or less my thoughts when I read Celuien's post.

morm, your post above intrigues me. Mainly because I see brilliance in it. I didn't think it was like you to make a case against someone on the flimsy evidence you had against Eomer, and now I see you wanted to get some reactions from it. This makes me think you are innocent. Eomer, well, I agree about (being uneasy about him), but I'm not eager to lynch him toDay.

[littlemanpoet]

Rules Clarification

1. If the player the Hunter picks is a wizard or an innocent (whether ordo or gifted), the Hunter makes no kill.

2. If the player the Hunter picks is a werewolf, the Hunter and werewolf kill each other.

3. If one of the players that the werewolves pick to kill is the Hunter, one of the werewolves who nominated or voted for the Hunter, is killed, and kills the Hunter.

Rules Revision

The Hunter, if lynched, does not make a kill.

I apologize again for not having this clear in my head before we started. The clarifications and revision are in keeping with my dry runs, which held good balance. We return to that balance.

These clarifications and the revision are effective immediately.

Thank you. That is all.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's a good tactic and one that has caught out a lot of people in the past. Apparently, everyone has forgotten that Mormegil thought I looked innocent before.

And another thing: why have a couple of people said that I'm nearly always right when Naria's guilt contradicts this? I don't get it.

I have an utterly flimsy case for someone being the EW. I'm almost too embarrassed to state it.

(It's Fea, by the way.)

[Cailín]

(It's Fea, by the way.)

The alliteration huh?

I knew it.

Mormegil, that was very clever, sir.

[mormegil]

I meant to comment on Nilp but sadly I must commonly post in a piece-wise manner as I get interupted at work. However Nilp seems surprising insightful and helpful. Could this mark a change? I don't know how to feel about this but everything feels innocent.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Eomer, well, I agree about (being uneasy about him), but I'm not eager to lynch him toDay.

Nor I and he becoming more and more innocent feeling with each post though I'm intrigued to here his fea EW theory.

I must stress however that because somebody feels innocent today does not mean that they will be tomorrow. This is a different dynamic and we all have a habit of thinking that because somebody is innocent at one point that continues...until the EW us rooted out we won't have any static condition.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

About the alliteration joke, it was indeed just a bit of in-character goofing off. Perhaps I shouldn't try to joke before bed any more.

In any case, this is a rushed post before I go off to get a few [shepherdessing] things done.

Given the dynamics of this game, my next statements only apply to RIGHT NOW.

I don't want us to lynch mormegil, Eomer, or Cailin.

I'll elaborate later. I plan to follow in footsteps and do my own character analyses. But not until after I run some errands and actually eat a real meal for the first time in a few days... amazing just how tired you get when you forget to eat real food. Be back later...

Edit: crossed with LMP onward. I'm an EW? Do tell.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Morm, think I'm the EW all you want, but there is no way I am being cursed as a wolf. My survival rate is pitiful. Choosing me as a wolf means choosing a dead wolf. The EW cannot afford to be stupid and picking me would be stupid.

I am, in all seriousness, alternating opinions every minute here. Here, I say "Fea's a wizard!" and there I say "That's crazy!"

But here goes:

I was first alerted to Fea's behaviour by her constant 'sighs' that she will get herself killed. It's there in posts #79, #83 and #87. "Oh, this strategy will get me killed!" But all she was doing is advocating killing those shady characters whom the village never trusts. Hardly an outrageous suggestion. It struck me as trying too hard to stay alive.

She is all about finding the EW. Now, this is a good idea; but her focus on this leads villagers to avert their gaze from her when doing this search. Yes, yes, this seems pretty ad hoc, but I noticed it. She's very vocal, taking it upon herself to find the EW.

#96 Brings up her point about the Wizard volunteers being those villagers with time to spare. No way could they be students with exams (because students are sooooo busy ). It just seems like a convoluted way to get people looking elsewhere for sorcery, and not at her.

And in that same post, the strangest one of all: She states, out of nowhere, that The Phantom is not the EW.

#226 Says it again (though it's only probable this time).

#230 Jests with The Phantom about being the EW, then adds in brackets that she's just kidding, or something.

#282 Again brings up that she hasn't the time, although she'd love to be the Wizard.

She also dismisses the hint I gave in #280 (I also gave my hint that Fea was a wizard in #98).

So, all in all, Fea is very eager to stay alive, wants us all to go out there and search for the EW, and is adamant that there is a good reason for her not to be the EW. Plus that Phantom-assertion made me a bit nervous.

I don't buy that whole 'busy' argument at all. Fea knows all about the glory of Werewolf. She'd relish the chance of being the first Wizard and you know it.

So you see, Fea, I have had my eye on you for a while.


And that, ladies and gentlemen, is possibly the worst theory you will hear all day.

[Thinlómien]

An OOC announcement: I will be a smaller nuisance for those who can't stand reading several pages every day - I should focus on a school project and an upcoming exam toDay, so I will probably be flooding less...

And if I'm rementioning some things, I'm sorry, but I'm writing this as I'm reading through the thread to get done with this faster (see above^) and I'm too lazy to edit it all...

On Eomer

First of all, I can't quite understand where all these suspicion on him has suddenly sprung from. I don't mean he seems innocent to me (he actually is a neither innocent nor extremely suspicious -case), but I'm rather wary of anyone just making a case out of nothing, though it would be reasonably founded. Anyway, my comments and speculations on the topic:

Originally Posted by mormegil

He also has been using the shield icon rather frequently

I wouldn't think that to be of any significance, morm, since uses it in discussions etc. quite often. Or maybe he has some kind of strategy: if there's no shield, he lies, if there is, he speaks the truth - or something like that. So he could convey messages to his wolves.

Maybe he actually did curse her, if he is the EW... if that's so, I would certainly look to Lommy.

Sorry, Firefoot, but I think that is a bit far-fetched. If he was the EW and I was a wolf, why would he speak truth about other wolves, but not of me? I can't follow your logic...

Originally Posted by Eomer

And, because the wolves do not know each other ...

If he really is the EW, does he tell the truth here?

His vote for Nogrod seemed strange to me even on Day1 as he had not suspected Noggie before. What he himself says on the topic is:

Originally Posted by Eomer

Oh, and Lommy, my vote from nowhere? Um...yeah, it was pretty much a random Day One vote. I could have voted for pretty much anyone. It wasn't as if I was railing against Fea and then changed my vote to Nogrod out of nowhere!

This might point towards he being the EW, or not, but we shouldn't forget this comment...

On other subjects

Originally Posted by mormegil

Oh one other plus about getting Nogrod off, besides being a wolf, it slows down the talk a bit

I hope you're not saying you wish I'm lynched or eaten next...

The people who think I'm suspicious because of trying to be helpful should have a look at Diamond and her Day1 quoting project... Anyway, Di, it was (maybe) useful, or I felt so at least.

Originally Posted by Diamond

The question is, did anyone else make similar posts talking up the importance of the Wolves not knowing each other?

I did, as well. I said they'd be harder to track. If you want to see the post, I think I posted it on Day 1, but that's all I remember.

Spawn has creditable points on Celuien.

I feel Lalaith's very innocent. [QUOTE0Lalaith]As for the changed wolf, there are three possibilities:
...
3. S/he is still among us. If 3, should they come forward?
[/QUOTE] She's the only one raising this topic, and this seems as she's asking advise. You can always question my reasoning here, but I gave it some thought.

I'm too confused about everything to name any suspects except Eomer and Alacrillo (< especially that one) who have nearly all the village after them.

Oh, and that Fea-theory of Eomer's - I think it's only a poor attempt to give the village another EW candidate to think about.... A bit more sound cases would be welcome, though, as I'm not sure about Eomer's guilty, though he seems suspicious.

[Lalaith]

and this seems as she's asking advise

Lommy, I did suspect that asking this question might make people think I was the changed wolf, but I really wasn't.
Now, while I am quite interested in the changed wolf question, what I am really interested in, and wish more people were too, is the 'at what point were the current wolves cursed' issue I was dwelling on earlier.
I appreciate that there's lots of wizard-hunting going on right now - which is good - but we should also still be thinking about wolves.
Eomer, as for your Fea theory, I for one will give it thought. She is definitely on that list I mentioned earlier, of people I hope aren't the EW.

[Kath]

Kath, as far as I understand the rules, Naria wouldn't know that Nogrod was a fellow wolf. She might have guessed, of course...is that what you mean?

No, that was me forgetting the rules and assuming the wolves knew who the others were and could PM

I've been reading through, and it seems that the main suspicions at the moment are falling on Eomer and Celuien. So:

Eomer - the case against him began well. All those quotes from posts that mormegil dredged up could indeed be seen as suspicious, and I can quite believe Eomer being bold enough to pull a stunt like that. However, morm put almost no analysis of these quotes in, seemingly relying on his earlier post as explanation. Some of the charges seemed a little overly nitpicking, such as the icon theory. *sigh* And now I find that was all an elaborate ruse. Lucky I hadn't got too far along this train of thought.

Celuien - overly defensive after very little suspicion had been thrown her way. Often a reason to look out for people and I see no reason why that shouldn't be the same for her. The vote for Alcarillo clears her a little in my eyes though, as he has been acting very oddly. The problem is I'm still assuming the wolves know each other's identities, and so think Celuien innocent because I think Alcarillo more likely to be a wolf, and think Celuien would not be so bold as to vote for a fellow wolf so early. But that all depends on the wolves knowing who the other's are, if they don't that theory all goes to pot.

And may I add another to the list? Nilp has been behaving most oddly. I know he usually abandons the whole vote for yourself, random madness stuff after Day 1, but he barely even did it Day 1. I don't know if this is out of respect for Roa (or her ancestors even, see the latest lorebook for why on that) but it usually signifies that he is something other than an ordo. Then there was post 383, where he uses the term 'you' to refer to the villagers the whole time. I don't know it just caught me as odd. Why say 'you' and not 'we'?

And now we have Eomer's argument for Fea being the EW. It's an ok theory. The repeated pointing out that she wouldn't have the time is fair enough, as is the fact that had she the time she'd love to do it. If there was only some real evidence I might be more inclined to believe this one.

Who was it that said I didn't seem entirely committed to this? Was that you Cailin? If it's any help I am committed, I just find it hard to keep up!

[Lalaith]

Then there was post 383, where he uses the term 'you' to refer to the villagers the whole time. I don't know it just caught me as odd. Why say 'you' and not 'we'?

*nods* That's a good spot, Kath. It could be of course that TimeZone-itis makes him feel distanced from the rest of us....