TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[Mister Underhill]

Let's go in the order morm suggested. That leaves morm as a safety valve in case anything goes wrong -- though I don't see how it could at this stage, since none of the remaining voters is getting lynched.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Undé, may I be the one to vote for Boro?

Can I ask why it matters?

[Mister Underhill]

Is it a conscience thing? You don't suspect Shorty? Either way is fine by me. I'll tie it up.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'll get the first vote in:

++TGWBS

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Now let's see some further tyin'! My conscience will be happier with me if I know that we're done for the night when I go to bed.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I guess it is a conscience thing, though as we are acting as a group, it doesn't matter. As Underhill said, since none of us is getting lynched, there's no real problem with this agreement. So, to get things going:

++Boromir88

(cross-posted with Fea's vote)

[Mister Underhill]

Okay, somebody confirm me here so there's no chance of screwing this up. I cast a Shorty vote and we're all tied up, right?

[Estelyn Telcontar]

right

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Okay, somebody confirm me here so there's no chance of screwing this up. I cast a Shorty vote and we're all tied up, right?

Well only if I screw it up

[Mister Underhill]

++tgwbs

Eru help us. Good luck everybody.

[mormegil]

++Encaitare for messing up my plan...I will forgive you when this is over

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Eru help us.

Amen to that!

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, phantom, we're set! Whatever happens in the next night, whichever of us gets killed if there is still a wolf around, I want to let you know that this has been great fun! I'll be back as soon as possible to read the results of this Day's work, but this will be my last post for now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

Eru help us.

Originally Posted by Estelyn Telcontar

Amen to that!

I concur.

[mormegil]

Okay so now we have

• Mormegil
• Feanor
• Encaitare
• Mister Underhill
• Esty

More than likely I will die tonight. Tomorrow I would recommend another double lynching orchestrated by Mister Underhill and backed up by Esty. I would have Encai vote for Feanor and Feanor vote for Encai then Esty and Underhill could vote for whom they like to tie those two up. The reason why you should have a double lynching is because you will have 4 left if one innocent dies you 3 total and that night the wolf kills one innocent and wolf wins. So you might as well kill 2 and I think Feanor and Encaitare are the most likely...if it is Esty I will never forgive myself for believing you and if it's Mister Underhill I should probably hand up my hat on WW for good.

Now a request to the grand master phantom Please end this DAY!!! I'm not sure how much more of it I can take...it's drained me too much. My mind is mush...and I think all know after today why I gave myself the title Maundering Mage.

[the phantom]

"So, we have one wolf left," said Mister Underhill. "How do we go about catching it?"

"I say that we thoroughly analyze every single villager," suggested Mormegil.

"Except me, of course," put in Boromir. "I am quite obviously innocent."

"Shut up, Boromir!" snapped Fea, who was hating Boro more than usual today. "I say forget analysis- let's kill Boro!"

"You'll die if you do! And who cares if you're innocent- you'll deserve to die," countered Boromir.

"I'm getting really sick of you, Boromir!"

"Ah, go drown yourself in Teiglin, knuckle-head!"

"Knock it off, you two!" scolded Esty. "Let's focus on the job at hand."

"Yeah, let's get to work," agreed Enca, as she accidentally spilled her drink on the table.

"This is dumb- I'm killing myself!" declared the guy who be short, as he drew a knife and attempted to stab himself. Luckily, he was drunk and missed entirely and instead pinned his jacket to the wall.

"Someone keep an eye on him and make sure he doesn't kill himself," said Morm.

"I'll watch him," volunteered Enca, who rose out of her chair and, on her way over to him, accidentally knocked over four chairs.

[the phantom]

The amount of information that was brought forth and analyzed on Day 4 was astounding. Day 4 compared to the other days the way an essay would compare to a burrahobbit post.

But night was fast approaching, and a decision was necessary.

"I think we have enough analysis," said Underhill.

"All right then, what are we going to do?" asked Esty.

"Let's double lynch," said morm.

"Let's not," agreed Boro.

"Let's do both," added Enca, helpfully.

"Or perhaps we should do neither," assented Fea.

"See why I want to die?" mumbled tgwbs, while trying, quite unsuccessfully, to hang himself on a cobweb.

"Well," said Fea, "Boro has been right every time and has provided us with lots of entertainment. Let's kill him."

"Um, I'm not quite following your logic," objected morm.

"I'm with Fea," said Enca, as she accidentally fell off of her chair.

"I'm just going to do whatever morm says," said Underhill and Esty in chorus.

"Would someone take that knife away from tgwbs?" pleaded morm, noticing that the dwarf had managed to pry his long knife out of the wall.

"Hey!" objected tgwbs as Boromir snatched his knife.

"Thanks Boro," said morm.

"No problem," said Boro as he stabbed himself with tgwbs's knife.

"Are villages always like this?" asked Esty.

"Yes," answered Enca, who then knocked over a candle and set her table on fire.

"Sheesh, Enca, can you please stop screwing up?" cried a frustrated Mister Underhill.

"Put it out! Put it out!" yelled Fea and Esty as they frantically ran circles around the flaming table.

Over in the corner, tgwbs had his hands around his own neck and was attempting to strangle himself.

"Someone put the crazy cook out of his misery!" hollered morm.

But there was no need. tgwbs stumbled forward and fell on top of Boromir. The long knife Boromir had stabbed himself with was sticking out of his back, and tgwbs's throat came down right on it.

Finally, the fire was put out and order restored.

"Um, they're both dead," said morm.

"Yeah- and neither of them are wolves," said Esty.

"Oops," said Underhill, Fea, and Enca.

But Boromir was not quite dead. Even with the dwarf on top of him, he raised himself up painfully and looked each of the villagers in the eye.

"You're all a bunch of knuckle heads!" he rasped, and after giving them all the bird, he slumped back to the floor, dead.

Living-

• mormegil (messenger)
• Encaitare (jewel smith)
• Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
• Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
• Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)

Dead-

• the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
• Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
• Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling Werewolves on Night 2)
• Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
• Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)
• littlemanpoet (Ranger- ambushed by Werewolves on Night 3)
• Lhunardawen (Ordinary- killed by Werewolf on Day 3)
• Formendacil (Werewolf- taken down by villagers on Day 3)
• Firefoot (Seer- slashed, beaten, stabbed, and snapped in half by Werewolf on Night 4)
• Boromir88 (Ordinary- couldn't stand knuckle-headed villagers any longer and commited suicide on Day 4)
• the guy who be short (Ordinary- got fed up with accusations and defenses and commited suicide on Day 4)

Score: Villagers- 4, Werewolves- 1

It is now NIGHT 5. Anyone posting before the next day begins will be smacked with Phantom's Stick of Slaying.

Wolf- I need your pick by 12:30 AM EST

[the phantom]

"So, Master, is it true that the wolf has made a kill tonight, and that tomorrow will be the end?" asked Mortakh.

"Yes," answered Sauron. "Doom will fall tomorrow. If my wolf is lynched, then the villagers win. If my wolf is not lynched, we win."

"What do you think will happen, Lord Sauron?"

"If there is one thing I have learned these past few days, Mortakh, it is that Erbar Telamarth is always full of surprises. I will not venture a guess at its fate. I will simply wait, and watch..."

[the phantom]

Estelyn walked into the tavern. Feanor of the Peredhil was already there, seated at the bar.

They waited in silence.

Encaitare entered and sat at a table.

A short while later, Mister Underhill came through the doorway.

"Seen Mormegil?" asked Fea.

Underhill shook his head. "I took a quick walk down towards his home- the door was torn off... and there was blood on the lawn. I didn't go inside, or follow the blood trail. I've seen enough death."

"Well, at least he knew he was going to die, and so was probably prepared to meet his fate," said Esty. The others nodded in agreement.

"Well, this is it," said Enca. "We've got to find the last wolf."

"Indeed," agreed Mister Underhill. "Now is not the time to hold back. Everyone needs to let it all out."

"Let's analyze like crazy!" said Fea.

"And absolutely NO suicide today!" warned Esty. "Remember, every time you vote for yourself, a skwerl dies."

And, with those final words of wisdom, the villagers launched into the final debate- the debate that would decide the doom of Erbar Telamarth.

Living-

• Encaitare (jewel smith)
• Feanor of the Peredhil (tavern wench)
• Estelyn Telcontar (seamstress)
• Mister Underhill (itinerant drúadan watch-stone maker)

Dead-

• the phantom (Moderator- captured by Sauron and slain by wolves on Night 1)
• Anguirel (Ordinary- beaten to death by villagers on Day 1)
• Eomer of the Rohirrim (Hunter- died bravely battling Werewolves on Night 2)
• Cailin (Werewolf- slain by Hunter on Night 2)
• Shelob (Ordinary- beheaded on Day 2)
• littlemanpoet (Ranger- ambushed by Werewolves on Night 3)
• Lhunardawen (Ordinary- killed by Werewolf on Day 3)
• Formendacil (Werewolf- taken down by villagers on Day 3)
• Firefoot (Seer- slashed, beaten, stabbed, and snapped in half by Werewolf on Night 4)
• Boromir88 (Ordinary- couldn't stand knuckle-headed villagers any longer and commited suicide on Day 4)
• the guy who be short (Ordinary- got fed up with accusations and defenses and commited suicide on Day 4)
• mormegil (Ordinary- as he predicted he was mauled by a Werewolf on Night 5)

Score: Villagers- 3, Werewolves- 1

The following villagers have informed me that their participation will be somewhat limited today- Encaitare will not be present to participate until around 4 PM EST.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm sad that our choices had such a devastating outcome! Instead of the wolf, two innocents died, and now mormegil has been killed as well. I spent much of the past Night pondering our possibilities. Fortunately, it has not come to the worst, which would have been the transformation of a cursed villager into a werewolf.

What we need to do now is to plan a strategy that will give us the best chances of killing the last wolf. Here are the choices and their possible outcomes:

1. We lynch one person, it's the wolf, game over, three villagers survive, villagers win.

2. We lynch one person, it's an innocent, the wolf kills another in the coming Night, two survive, one of them is the wolf, wolves win.

3. We double lynch the two most suspicious villagers, thereby increasing our chances of getting the wolf; either we succeed and the villagers win, with two surviving, or we miss the wolf and lose.

I think the last choice is the best. It gives us the best chance of lynching a wolf. Whatever we do, the game is over by Night at the latest, more likely toDay.

I still think my list of suspects is valid; I had Enca pegged as the most suspicious and Fea as the next (50-50), with Underhill and myself as innocents. I know one of you young ladies is innocent, but it can't be helped - will you be willing to die for the best of the village? If not, you are definitely making yourself appear even more suspicious!

I ask Fea and Enca not to vote for themselves - phantom got it right, I think the suicidal votes are stupid, and all of them have gone wrong in this game. But I ask each of you to vote for the other one, then Underhill and I can finish by tieing the votes for a double lynching.

I know I'm coming out early with this suggestion, but as I consider it the very best possibility for the villagers to win, I offer it to you all. Unfortunately, I will be away for several hours this afternoon and evening, and I know Enca won't be able to defend herself until later, but I shall do my very best to make up for lost time before and after my absence.

I'm not sure how much a lot of analysis will help us - we've done so much of that! But we can go back and at least honour Boromir, tgwbs, and mormegil by attempting to pick up clues from their contributions.

If either Enca or Fea votes for Underhill or myself, she is most likely to be the wolf, and I would suggest concentrating all following votes on her!


PS - I will definitely by voting late this very last Day of the game! As I did on the previous Day, I will be up early in my time zone to discuss the possibilities with the rest of you and to cast my crucial vote just before the deadline.


PPS - I just reread morm's last post, in which he suggests this very same tactic. Since the dead are always right and always good that means we should definitely do it!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm willing to work together. I'd prefer not to die, but as long as Encai gets justly punished for messing with the votes yesterDay, I'm okay with it. Here's to hoping that Esty and Underhill are as innocent as the world thought. Once I'm back from my classes (this will be after 3:00 PM EST), I'll take a few glances about, see what's what, and decide what to do.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I've been pondering the mistaken judgement we made concerning the two innocents lynched yesterDay. Could we have known their innocence and chosen more wisely to eliminate the wolf instead?

As to Boromir88, I think not. He deliberately set himself up to be thought the Seer; I was not the only one who noticed that. He explained that by saying that he did it to protect the real seer; I suspected him to be a wolf masquerading as seer and voting for a "known" wolf to protect his secret identity. Since we did not know whether to believe his word concerning his motives for that move, we were right in suspecting him.

I never during the whole game seriously suspected tgwbs. That's the reason I didn't want to vote for him yesterDay. However, the irregularities in his voting did make him seem suspicious. My question is, who started the campaign against him? I'll go back to reread the posts later when I have time. That could give us an additional clue to the real ID of the wolf.

Fortunately, the evening meeting I was to have has been cancelled! I'll have time to discuss when the rest of you are here.

Cross-posted with Fea - thanks for your willingness to cooperate! That does speak for your innocence; however, I am unwilling to give up the only plan with some kind of certainty, so I do not suggest changing the double-lynching idea.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Estelyn Telcontar

I am unwilling to give up the only plan with some kind of certainty, so I do not suggest changing the double-lynching idea.

I agree. Two should die. If we're wrong, we die anyhow. If we take out two, it ups our chances of being right.

I thought this funny enough to share: last night I had a dream that Encai convinced me that Underhill was guilty. Way to have a BD dream, no?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay, I've had a spare minute (several actually, given that my tutorial ended on time for the first time ever, instead of running quite far over my half-hour limit) and here is my thought:

Let's inspect each living player, Encai, Underhill, Esty, and myself.

I know that we've already gone over each other (except for Boromir not analyzing me), but let's do it from a biased point of view. With the thought "Let's just say _____ is a wolf. What has s/he said and done that would prove my point?"

No writing from personal opinion such as "I think s/he is innocent, but _____". I think it would be a good idea to write an arguement, sophistic though it may be, against everybody, with the only intentional bias being "So-and-so is obviously guilty because ______". That way we can look as objectively as possible at what possibly damns the person. And I know that we can all write well, so no claiming that you can't write a good arguement.

Good idea? I rather think so... Here's how it would work (in trusty alphebetical order):

Encai accuses Esty accuses Fea accuses Mister Underhill accuses Encai. That way everybody gets a good thorough looking into, actively searching for every possible negativity. Theoretically, once the four of us have been "proved" to be lupine, we'll look and decide on the two most convincing arguements (not based on quality of writing, though that's always nice, but based on the arguements themselves). Don't forget that you're allowed to conjecture a bit, such as saying "Esty is obviously a wolf because even though she didn't do anything, that's exactly what a quiet wolf would be doing: looking innocent."

Even if everybody else thinks my plan is a waste of time, I plan to implement it anyhow, with or without group consent. I'll search for Underhill's guilt when I get back from my [wenching] duties mid-afternoon.

[Encaitare]

I've been able to snag a few minutes in class to check up on things here. Fea wants me "justly punished" for my mistake yesterDay. As I said, RL distractions (*coughCollegeApplicationscough*) and sleep deprivation made my mind wander, and I forgot about the plan, since I really did suspect Boromir and had him stuck in my mind as guilty. But think about this: after I made the vote, Mr. U and Morm said they had been thinking me innocent until then. If they had been thinking me innocent, and I had voted for TGWBS like I was supposed to, then it's probably safe to say that the double lynching would have had the same results. Can you honestly think my honest mistake was a wolvish ploy? The key thing for a wolf to do at this point is lay low to avoid detection, and if what I did were deliberate, as you can see it has the exact opposite effect.

Now with the knowledge that Boromir was innocent, I think that the wolf was setting up Fea all along, and then needed a new scapegoat when Boromir started to catch on. Morm was most likely killed, as he predicted, because he was the last of the known innocents. Yet the wolf has also realized that in keeping me alive, s/he is drawing much attention away from him/herself.

Esty says she knows the wolf is either Fea or me. I find it curious, however, that the new players are both still alive. Why is that? It could be that Esty or Mr. U is using the newbie and esteemed Downer roles to his/her advantage, being able to stay quiet and off people's radar. I don't think it's out of the question for Phantom to have made one of them a wolf, since he knows they're both very intelligent. In fact, it sounds just like the kind of thing he would do. Since I know I am not the final wolf, I'm worried that if Fea is lynched with me, the wolf may escape. I feel as though she is suspected simply because she is Fea, and is known to be a shrewd player. Maybe our analyses will yield something... I will do the analysis of Esty when I get home from school, about 3:30-4 ish (PM EST).

[Mister Underhill]

Go for it, Fea. I don't know if I'll do much work on Enca. She doesn't have many posts. When I looked at them yesterday, I was leaning towards her innocence, but then she came along and screwed up the plan, so that's probably the most important factor in her case. Either you buy that it was accidental, or not. I agree with Esty that we need a double-lynching, and I think Enca's got to be one just to be safe after that debacle.

Fea has to be the other one, I think. You've been on a lot of lists for a long time, and I think you might have gotten lucky and slipped the noose yesterday. If not for Enca's mistake, I think it likely that you might have been lynched. I think the round-robin analysis is just another distraction tactic at this point. From my point of view, I know I'm innocent, and one of you all is the wolf, so two out of four analyses will be useless to me. I'll be looking over your posts later myself, since I'm assuming either you or Enca is the wolf and one of you isn't going to make it easy for us to pull off the double-lynch and I'll have to choose.

I'll also take a look at Esty's posts just for the heck of it, but I don't expect to find much. If she's fooled me this far, then she'll win. I can't imagine finding anything that I haven't seen already that will make me vote for her over one of you two.

I doubted Boro was the wolf, and I would have given Shorty a pass too if it wasn't for that dumb self-vote. If this village goes down, it's going to be because of innocents offering themselves and/or voting for themselves. It's not noble, it's just dumb! If Boro hadn't self-voted, Enca couldn't have screwed things up so badly; if Shorty hadn't of self-voted, I think he would have been one of the less-suspected players going into the voting.

Oh well. We must play the cards we're dealt. At this point, best bet is a double-lynch of Enca and Fea. Assuming one of you is the wolf and will attempt to mess with that, it's gonna come down to a choice between you.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Enca. For the record, I would've been pushing hard for a Fea vote yesterday until the plan got screwed up.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Thank heavens for cancelled class and sparse posting. I've gotten all of Underhill's posts together and I'll take a look at them when I get back from my next bit of [wenching] responsibility. After that... I'll writing a convincing argument as to why we should kill him. I'd like to see similar arguements from the rest of you.

As with Encai, that'll be around or after three.

PS: this assignment so closely resembles one that I had to complete for comp that it scares me a little.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I cross-posted with Underhill. Hillo, this is not a diversionary tactic, this is a last minute reassurance that we're suspecting the right people. We worked as a group yesterday, we can do it again today. If we see all the reasons someone should be suspected laid out flatly and convincingly, we can double check on our suspicions and not make a huge mistake. Remember, it's very easy to get convinced that you're right about someone's innocence or guilt, and it's very easy to be wrong. I'd like the villagers to win, and the only way to do it is to work together at this point. If working together means trying to get each other killed, then so be it. I want to know what the exact reasons are pointing to people's guilt. We should have done this a while ago. I'll do all the work myself if I have to, but, quite frankly, I've got a life outside the game, and that work would severely damage my time set aside to rewrite two papers, write up some annotations for a bibliography, choreograph more of a dance, take photos for my art class, and study for psych. Are we working as a team or not? It's the only way we can win. Unless you don't want a detailed analyzation of your faults? Are you afraid I might find something once I start looking? Feel free to examine my posts, and as deeply as you want, with as much speculation as you feel the need for. I'm not afraid of what you'll find. None of you should be, if you're innocent.

[Mister Underhill]

Sorry, Fea, but this feels like more of your tactics of sowing doubt and mistrust by implying that I'm afraid of your analysis. As I said in my previous post, "Go for it." Feel free to analyse me and other players all you want. I think we each should be doing the same today. There are only four of us left, so it's not a gigantic workload, plus we have up-to-yesterday analysis on most of us -- not you, though, how curious...

If you're innocent, I think the best thing you can do is go along with trying to help us pull off a double-lynching that includes yourself, but we'll see how the day progresses.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'll be happy to analyze you with a view to finding reasons for your guilt, Fea. I have a few duties left for today, then will have time for in-depth searching.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Underhill, another tactical possibility has occurred to me that would work in the case that one of our suspects does vote differently - which would make her our top suspect, of course!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

plus we have up-to-yesterday analysis on most of us -- not you, though, how curious...

How curious indeed. I forgot to tell you all, I mysteriously turned into Boromir88 and made the decision not to analyze myself. Please cast suspicion on me because of this. I assure you, Feamir88's lack of examination is entirely my fault and I should be lynched because of it.

If you're innocent, I think the best thing you can do is go along with trying to help us pull off a double-lynching that includes yourself, but we'll see how the day progresses.

What do you think I'm trying to do? I already said I'll vote how the group wants me to, including for myself, but I certainly want to make sure that the group is well-informed and knows what it wants.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Before I get into a detailed analysis of Fea, let me sum up my general thoughts on each of the three of you. I did a thorough, post-by-post analysis of Underhill yesterDay, so I will not repeat myself. In none of his posting or voting did I see any sign of wolvish behaviour. Next to me, he's the person I think most likely to be innocent. If I'm wrong on him (and mormegil said something similar), I'm a very poor WW player and deserve to die - virtually only, of course!

Enca has topped my list of werewolf candidates for days. Boromir pushed her off my radar temporarily with his seer ruse, but her confused voting did nothing to dispel my suspicion. The only thing that could possibly speak for her innocence is the fact that she has not waited until the end to vote, a behavioral pattern I would expect from a werewolf. However, whether by genuine blundering or on purpose, she did not cooperate with the voting plan set up by the majority yesterDay.

Fea has waited until the end to vote, which could be interpreted as wolvish manipulation; however, it could also be the action of a control freak who wants to ensure that her side wins by voting late to make her voice count. She has played with the aspect of being confusing and hard to pin down, which could also be interpreted both ways. Boromir thought she was being set up as a suspect by the wolves, which is possible. However, she herself told us that we should consider her most dangerous when we have come to think her innocent!

Her cooperativeness, both yesterDay and toDay, speak positively for her innocence, but I'm not willing to let her off the hook yet. Fea's intelligent and gutsy enough to put on a cheeky front and attempt a last, desperate bluff to save her hide, if she should be a wolf. Please consider my continued suspicion of you a compliment, m'dear!

I will be back with that analysis soon.

One additional note concerning the voting - as there are only four of us now, we can vote earlier than the deadline. It shouldn't be too hard to reach a decision within the next couple of hours, when everyone is here. I'm willing to trust Underhill with the final vote.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Now my feeling is that we ought to do a single lynching and make it Encaitare. If she's innocent she deserves to die and if she guilty she deserves to die but I just can't shake the thought that she, being a wolf, thought that I was going to vote for her, which I can see why, and thought that a 'genuine' mistake was her only chance of survival. Comically I probably wasn't going to vote for her because I was thinking that she was possibly innocent.

I know, I'm not supposed to analyze Enca, but I found this post (yesterDay) very interesting. morm has been a good player, and he may very well have been right with this idea!

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm trying to find out where we went wrong yesterDay. In post #292, Fea was still suggesting the double-lynching of Boro and Enca, which I also suggested. So did morm, originally. When did we get off-track, choosing tgwbs?! tgwbs supported the double-lynching of Boro and Enca in post #299.

Then morm backed off the two of them, thinking that the combination wasn't good. It looks to me like it was Boro who, in post #309, started the bandwagon that led to tgwbs' downfall. Three posts later, tgwbs says he's willing to be lynched. Huh??

Underhill then did an analysis of tgwbs that gave the hunt some considerable impetus. However, very soon after that, the guy gave himself up by that suicidal vote. I can't find any wolvish influence in that wrong decision we made - it was a combination of unfortunate incidents, apparently!

It looks to me like tgwbs' rather random votes and failing explanations were merely the way a spontaneous person reacts, a sudden change of mind without the communication of a logical explanation that we others could understand.

[Encaitare]

I'm back. I'll be starting the analysis of Esty now.

[Mister Underhill]

Well, I wasn't planning to do a real in-depth analysis of Fea, but I got into her posts pretty deeply after all. Here's some analysis:

#74 -- Agrees to have "seen something" with Eomer.

Claims to have found "Two known innocents or two known wolves." but doesn't expound on this now or later, as far as I can tell, though I think she hints later that she doesn't want to reveal gifted if she's spotted them, see:

#95 -- "But if I explain my suspicions, I run the risk of getting some people I'd like to keep alive killed off. That's why vagueness makes me happy."

#113 -- "My two suspects, for little reason besides tweaking my nerves, are B88 and LMP." Don't know what bugs me about this exactly -- it just seems a pretty flip way of casting suspicion.

"I'm honored by your opinion of my capabilities, but you're wrong on me. Just because I'm fully capable of pulling off any depth bluff I feel like (most of which include no true work, simply alluding to one and letting your imagination do the work for me) doesn't mean I am."

"I mean... the last part is elaboration, but if you're so confident in my wolvery, you can give me the benefit of the doubt (after all, logic favors me in that I've got a higher likelihood of being innocent than guilty) and have confidence in my skills as an innocent." Her skills as an innocent have only succeeded in drawing a lot of suspicion on herself and accusing innocents. That she hasn't played a stronger innocent game in itself makes me suspicious of her.

Through several of these early posts, she generally toys and teases about the possibility of her being a wolf. This doesn't seem like sound strategy for an innocent wolf, but then again it may be her personality.

#136 -- "I think I'll vote B88 tonight, due to the fact that he works too much like me, and I make myself nervous. Seriously, if I was playing with me in a game, I'd be the first to bandwagon myself." Esty has mentioned this attitude, which recurs in a couple of posts.

This next one is key, and may contain a revealing slipup:

#137 -- Fea Sets up what she thought was a possible B88/Ang double-lynch, but doesn't take responsibility for it, leaving Lhuna to tie-break (or not). Gives excuses for not hanging in til the end of voting as she mentioned she might do earlier. Her tie actually would have lynched Cailin, but since she seems to have been mistaken, we can't credit her with this. She may have actually been trying to save Cailin. This seems big and I don't know why it wasn't noticed at the time. morm actually gives her credit for seeming less suspicious based on how her vote would have actually turned out, rather than analyzing how she thought it would turn out. Fea certainly didn't call attention to the mistake until much later (see below). Instead she gives a long post in #153 about how we should expect the wolves to do anything.
This seems to be a tactic she employs -- floats a theory, then lets your "imagination do the work" -- quick to revise if she's called on it.

Firefoot in #156, of the voting situation Fea created -- "Fea - I could go either way. While I haven't seen anything outstandingly suspicious about her, I wouldn't expect to; nor would I put anything past her. If she was an innocent, she honestly wouldn't know about any of the three (Ang, Cailin, and Borormir); and if she were a wolf her vote for Boromir basically says that she doesn't care which of those three dies and gives the remaining person another option so as not to be overtly protecting Cailin."

FF also seems to have missed Fea's misunderstanding; otherwise her read matches mine -- that Fea made a vote which (she thought) would help protect Cailin but wasn't so obvious as to cast the last deciding vote.
Form's #165 analysis of Fea's vote reinforces the fiction that Fea knew Cailin would have died in a tie, and not Ang.

#166 -- "You should all suspect me simply because there is no proof in my innocence. My word is obviously not good, as if I was a wolf, I'd be lying through my teeth... or, more likely, telling the flat out truth and letting you think I was lying." The bold rubs me the wrong way. "...not good enough" I would have bought. One of those wolfish unconscious slips?

#185 -- Fea brings up the mistake -- over 40 posts later. Maybe she figured she had better bring it up before someone else finally found it. She sure let a lot of time and assumptions go by before she pointed it out, though. Also, Formendacil posted five minutes later, meaning Fea's "admission" post wasn't sitting around at the bottom of the thread for very long. One wolf helping another fly under the radar?

#192 -- Form mentions Fea as "one of his top suspects" but without much reasoning, then votes for me. Wolf disassociating from wolf?

Hard to say what to make of the voting record. I tried to compare Fea's votes to the votes of the known wolves to look for signs of collusion -- with ambiguous results.

On Day One, they're spaced in a way that could equal Fea-wolf. If Fea is a wolf, then she and Form voted very close together on Day Two, which could be a strategy to throw wolf hunters off. Space it out on Day One, bunch it up on Day Two. Fea's relatively early vote on Day Two is a bit suspicious, considering her repeated claims that she's up til all hours and that she prefers to hold her vote in case she spots wolvish behavior.

On the other hand, Form's Day Three vote for her would be risky if they were working together. Could be a bold move, could be read as tending towards innocence. But then again, it wouldn't have been that bold -- everyone was buying into the "Fea set up" theory by then. Confounding, as situations in this game so often are.

In #208, Fea herself was the one who laid the groundwork for the "Fea-setup-by-wolves" theory. "At the moment, I can't avoid being impressed with the wolves' strategy. I'm not sure what the entirety of it is just yet, but I'm impressed. The kill of LMP was... I'd say unexpected, but if I'd been paying more attention (blast my obscenely large amounts of [wenching] homework) to the game, I'd probably have expected it. Who garnered a large number of votes already yesterday? Me. Who kept pointing her sadly inaccurate finger at LMP? Also me. Who looks most guilty because now he's dead? I'll let you fill in that answer."

This all sounds a bit strained to me. Would the wolves really go to all this trouble to set up Fea? Or was their kill of lmp based on suspicion of him as the Seer? The latter seems more likely.

In #238, says she "played with the assumption that [Eomer] was Seer before dropping the idea like a bad habit. I'd rather be assume I'm wrong than actually be wrong again." Her thinking Eomer was the Seer may explain Eomer's death: remember post #166? "...if I was a wolf, I'd be lying through my teeth... or, more likely, telling the flat out truth..."

In #262, Fea floated the idea of double-lynching me with Form -- take down an innocent with her fellow wolf? -- but didn't push hard for it. Could be innocent enough. Says she suspects Form, but I don't recall her talking about him much, and later she says she thinks I'm a bigger problem and pushes for me with only a few votes left to go. Once again gets in her vote relatively early with a somewhat suspicious double-post/dubious explanation: "Sorry to double-post, but I've only just realized that I'd like to go to bed and then sleep really late tomorrow, as it's my only day off from classes and I need the rest." Hrmm...

She got in the first post of the day after Firefoot's death, quickly floating the theory that Firefoot dreamed of her and cleared her (#276). Backtracks in #286 after morm challenges her on her interpretation.

That brings me more or less up to yesterday.

I have to say my gut is telling me Fea. That error on the Day One voting really reinforces the gut feelings I've had about her for some time. If she's innocent, she'll vote early -- maybe even first -- for Enca to help us try to set up the double. It's the only way to clear herself now. Then we'll know if Enca tries to foil it that she's the guilty one.

Fea, if you're innocent, I urge you to vote now for Enca. Don't wait.

[Mister Underhill]

Cross-posting -- Esty, even though that self-vote by tgwbs raised a big red-flag for me, he was still relatively low on my suspicion list from yesterday. I was rather surprised when morm put him down as the #1-to-be-lynched when he posted his plan in #347-8. If Shorty hadn't of self-voted, or if morm had seemed less certain, I would have at least discussed that choice.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

I have to say my gut is telling me Fea. That error on the Day One voting really reinforces the gut feelings I've had about her for some time. If she's innocent, she'll vote early -- maybe even first -- for Enca to help us try to set up the double. It's the only way to clear herself now. Then we'll know if Enca tries to foil it that she's the guilty one.

Fea, if you're innocent, I urge you to vote now for Enca. Don't wait.

Thanks for that analysis, Underhill! I've been reading through her posts as well, and what others said about her, but I don't need to add to what you've posted. There is one comment by seer Firefoot concerning her:

For me, Fea is just sort of hanging between innocent and guilty - I can't make heads or tails of her.

I agree with your appeal to Fea - or Enca, if she should be innocent - to vote first, following our plan. I'll add a few comments when I'm back - duty calls briefly.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++ Encai

Better? Now I'd like to address a few of the things you said, Underhill, but would it seem like I'm trying too hard to cover my tracks if I do? I can at least explain why I wasn't up for the narration on those nights: on one, I was having trouble with my asthma so I ended up actually using my inhaler for the first time in months and going to bed early. On another, I had a huge Psych assignment due the next morning that I really needed to finish (especially as my grade in Psych needs to go up several letter grades to keep my parents from killing me), so even though I was up until the wee hours, I was in the library.

There are several other things I'd like to get at, such as my "accusation" of Underhill, but that has to wait, as I've got a rather important and potentially long-winded meeting in 15 minutes.

If you'd be so kind, please don't anybody else vote until I get back and get in some good quality posting? I'd hate for y'all to vote without hearing what I have to say.