Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Eomer

And what did I do wrong? I thought I played it real clean, honey!

I thought that after a while your reminders that you'd helped lynch Kitanna and Oromin became suspicious.

I tried to make a subtle hint like TORE. Since I wasn't allowed to say I was the Shirriff, I wrote "There is someone else I do not suspect, and I don't want to see an innocent's eyes fluttering closed as they hang..." I had hoped that someone might make the connection "flutter --> butterfly --> Wilwarin --> innocent." At least people did figure out that we were the Shirriffs from my more outright defenses.

[The Only Real Estel]

This is more or else my train of thought on DAY One:

Bah, Cobbler. Of all the roles, this is the one that I understand the least. Just my luck. I suppose I should (1) cause confusion (2) don't accuse wolves, but I'd also like to stick around past the first few days so I can be a bigger help so I need to (3) act like an innocent villager would.

Okay, here we go. Hmm, Morm makes a typical in-character post & Wilwarin jumps on it - seems like a wolvish trick. Woh, what the heck? I swear I can't understand a word of what Saurreg says without reading it three or four times. *Sigh* Nilp votes for himself? Fire & brimstone, it's the end of the world. I think I'll do a bit of double-bluffing of a sort & ask some questions about the Cobbler's role. I think I'll drop a hint, something about peaches (my peach cobbler hint) - I doubt anyone will catch it, but that doesn't really matter. Ah, Dancing Spawn's picked up on Wilwarin as well, I suppose if she might be a wolf than I'd better give a short defense of her (#85). Now this is strange. Eomer is lightly accusing & then quickly pardoning villagers at lightening speed (Fea, Morm, Wilwa, Durelin). That is what I considered doing to keep active while never really comitting to anyone. Since I am not innocent & he is acting like me I think I'll keep an eye on that. TGWBS has started the Nilp bandwagon, as an innocent villager I should bring this up (#104). Oops, that wasn't very smart if he's a wolf I'd better back off (#111). Now Kitanna is giving screwy reasons for why she's voting for Nilp - I'd better speak up (#111). Bah, I need to cast a vote but I don't want to draw attention to any wolves. Hmm, how about Oromin? She's only posted once so I'll use that as my reason so it doesn't look like I'm playing completely at random <---boy, some cobbler I was, voting for a wolf on the first DAY?

[The Saucepan Man]

Congratulations to all involved for what, from the perspective of an interested bystander, was an extremely enjoyable game. Particular congrats to Firefoot for an excellent job as moderator.

But my greatest praise is reserved for Eomer and TORE, both of whom played a blinder in my opinion.

TORE, I think that your strategy worked extremely well. I never suspected you as the Cobbler (I had Saureg pinned for that role), and it seems like no one else did either. It was a bold strategy, but it paid dividends in the end.

Eomer, you took my breath away with the boldness of some of your moves. After Kitanna's death, I felt sure that it had been planned by the wolves so that they could use their role in bringing it about to justify their innocence. At first, I suspected mormegil and Kath ( ), but with them dead I began to watch you closely. With Oromin's death, I became pretty convinced that you were the remaining wolf, having taken the prime role in getting her lynched. It was a bold strategy, because it left you on your own, but it also meant that most of the remaining villagers were convinced of your innocence (with a little help from TORE).

But what I really admired was the way that you dealt with the remaining shirriff, jumping in to vote for Lhuna before anyone had time to organise a mass lynching (again, supported by TORE). As the lone wolf, I thought that you might have difficulties with the shirriffs, since if you killed one at night that would leave a known innocent the next day and the risk of being caught in an organised mass lynching. I presume that you held off attacking the shirriffs until the numbers were down in order to minimise that risk. You handled it extremely well, but I would be interested to hear what your thoughts were on this.

So, well done to the "Wolf" team (yes, that includes you, TORE), and thanks to all involved for some great entertainment.

My only complaint is that I missed enrolling by a day. It was a classic game, and I would love to have been involved.

[wilwarin538]

Wow, I really missed alot these past few days, even my own death.

That was alot of fun. I'm definetly going to try it again.

It was great Shirriffing with you Enca! Eomer and TORE, I didn't suspect you for a single second, you played well. All of you did.

[Kitanna]

Great game everyone!

I'm so glad to see that Eomer stayed on 'til the end. I was a little worried there, but he pulled through.

And Estel, excellent job as the cobbler.

[The Only Real Estel]

And Estel, excellent job as the cobbler

Thank you very much, Kitanna. Especially since I probably contributed to your death quite a bit on accident . But that will be included in my DAY two thoughts if I decide to post those.

[Durelin]

Eomer and TORE, you blow me away.

Great game everyone...absolutely suspenseful...you kept me up till 2 in the morning the night I knew I was going to get killed!

Hmm...Has anyone noticed my hints in my posts, yet? Or do I have to go back to bold them?

I swear I'll never live past the third night...

[The Only Real Estel]

My train of thought during DAY two:

Fea gone, eh? Strange choice, I would've thought they could've gotten her lynched within a day or two by twisting her words. Oh well. Pity she's just an ordo, though (ordinary villager). I see Kitanna slightly twists Oddwen's word & voices suspicions of her, a wolvish trick perhaps? I am still suspicious of her from yesterday. Ah, morm believes me innocent, excellent. Blast that Saurreg and his confusing posts! Or blast my inability to read them, whichever deserves it more. As an innocent villager I feel I should expose Kitanna's twisting of Oddwen's words (#160). Lhuna has been hanging around her brother too much...but hopefully this can be used to our advantage. Unless of course she is a bold bluffing wolf? I'd better think on this one. Ah, lmp thinks me innocent as well. Hmm, tgwbs suspects Lhuna of cobblery - now that's a card I could play to my favor later on. I'll have to bookmark that one...GASP! Lhuna nailed my strategy! I'd better 'clarify' what I think the cobbler is supposed to be doing (#176). Now Eomer proclaims me likely to be innocent, I wonder...I still believe him to be a wolf, could he have picked up on one of my hints? Eomer mentions suspicions of Kitanna but I doubt he'll act on them, I think they're both wolves. Nope no acting, in fact no further mention of Kitanna that I can see. Eomer & Kitanna jump to #1 & #2 on my list. Tgwbs resuspects Lhuna of cobblery, time to play my card (& I imagine I'll play it again many times)(#199). In fact I think I'll use that card to vote for Lhuna. She won't die anyway, so I still have no voting record to be tied to. And if she is a wolf than this one vote is doing no harm.

[Lhunardawen]

Goodness. I am utterly speechless.

I'll try to regain my speech when my jaw stops dropping.

[Lhunardawen]

IknewitIknewitIknewitIknewitIknewitIknewit I knew it!!!

I knew something's up when Eomer survived beyond Day 3!

But the funny thing about this is, I was trying to convince even myself of Eomer's lycanthropy when I posted my suspicions of him on Day 3. What finally convinced me is an anonymous rep on that post saying this:

I'll explain this rep after the game.

I did a quick count of the points that rep had - I think it was around 24. This is where the fun begins...

I thought it came from Firefoot!!!

But I told myself, "No, no, of course she wouldn't do that. She's the mod." But somehow I believed the rep to be a sign from heaven that I am on the right track about Eomer. So I went after him, but nobody would believe me. Added to that, he did a fine job of defending himself, so in the end I thought Estel really was the werewolf. My hat is off to you, dear big bro. And to you too, Estel. You have no idea how befuddled I was with the two of you, even after my death. Nilp can attest to that.

*starts tearing hair out*

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wow... you should never underestimate the wolves... or the cobbler. Thanks for the great game, everyone!

Eomer, the wolves of the previous villages are proud to welcome you to the VIP Club of Victorious Werewolves!

Firefoot, excellent modding!

[littlemanpoet]

Eomer, you were very wise to kill me the night you did. I was reading through your posts and had come to the same conclusion that Mormegil did, that you were either innocent are a daring double bluffer; only I was convinced it was the latter. I was preparing a "Case Against Eomer" that I never got to post. Good game!

Oh, and having not read past page 10 yet, let me just add that with so many villagers, to chain the shirriffs to not revealing themselves until one died, seemed unnecessary to me in the first place, and pretty much proved out that if you're going to hog-tie them, might as well not have them at all.

Edit: Lhuna, you were convincing me, but he took me out!

[Lhunardawen]

Edit: Lhuna, you were convincing me, but he took me out!

That's why I thought either Eomer or Estel was the wolf. The werewolf might have thought you were the Seer and about to dream of one of them, that's why the lycan killed you right before you can say anything.

[The Saucepan Man]

On another note, did anyone else wonder what Jar Jar Binks was doing in the village?

Or was it just me who found that image being conjured up every time that Saureg posted?

[the guy who be short]

Eomer...? Congrats.

I'll be honest. I was oblivious to wolvery throughout that entire game.

The only thing I figured out for certain were the Shirriffs, which everybody got, and Lhuna's innocence on the Day she was lynched. Explanation: The Night lasted half an hour from 6pm to 6:30pm (I think). In Lhuna-time (Phillipines) that would be 1am in the morning, and it's extremely unlikely shewas awake at 1 to choose who to kill, thus she was innocent.

TORE - Grr... Fool, aren't I?

[The Only Real Estel]

Or was it just me who found that image being conjured up every time that Saureg posted?

I was spending too much time trying to figure out what he said to have any images conjured up.

I was preparing a "Case Against Eomer" that I never got to post.

I was preparing a "Case against lmp" during the night you got killed also. I don't know if it would've gone over or not, but I had quite a few quotes that either sounded strange or I could twist to sound strange. And then I woke up & found that the wolves had taken you out. Good game.

[The Only Real Estel]

I wrote a few PMs to Firefoot during the course of the game, mostly so I could have my thoughts somewhere concrete. Here's one from day one:

Sorry to start a sort of confusion about the cobbler's job, but I couldn't resist throwing a little bit of non-wolf related confusion in there ...plus if me asking about the cobbler's role makes me look less cobbler-ish, than that's obviously a good sign (for now).

I just hope the villagers don't get what I was talking about when I mentioned having "some oatmeal, peaches and ice cream, and a smoke" - it was meant to be a subtle hint to the wolves so that perhaps they'll catch on (don't know if you've ever had peach cobbler with ice cream on it or not), but if the other villagers catch it I might be out of luck...

-Estel-

And thoughts from DAY three (I was gone during most of the proceedings for this day)...

Wow, Durelin wasn't a wolf. I had been looking at her for possibly the third wolf, instead she's the hunter & takes out another villager with her - good luck I must say. What's Oromin saying? Cobbler? Liar!!! Darn it, it's obvious that Oromin is either a wolf or a Cobbler & since I was the Cobbler last I checked she must be the wolf. Still, I can't bring that up. I've got to see if I can delay her lynching for a day or two, every day longer that we can keep lynching innocents is vital - especially for this stupid strategy of mine that will probably make me look like an idiot. Morm would elect me the leader of the village!? Ah, if I had only been here earlier...still, if I can get him to take up that call later I could probably get away with getting two innocents lynched late in the game before being lynched for my 'mistakes'. I'll have to revisit that one. Wow, I just realized that as an 'innocent' villager I was bothering Kitanna (being suspicious of her) but as the Cobbler I should have been leaving her alone. This role is going to take some getting used to. It seems that most of the villagers either aren't taking Oromin seriously or else they are suspecting her of being the Cobbler. Good. Let's keep it that way for a few DAYS if possible. It looks like Kitanna is going down, ah, Eomer votes for her. That still doesn't clear him, any wolf would jump on his comrade when the ship is going down...still, I have to be sure to look at this with an open mind. Well, I'm finally back - I think I'll shake the COBwebs from my brain - not that anyone will catch on. It looks like Kitanna is out, I should probably vote for her. Sigh, I probably played a big part in everyone suspecting her. Lhuna suspects Eomer, hopefully that will just make her look like a guilty attention-shifter. So, Kitanna was a wolf. This may be a short game, although if Eomer is one of the remaining wolves it just might not be.

edit: Oh yeah, here's a PM to Firefoot from DAY three (I think):

Mormegil being so trusting of me & lmp & Eomer thinking I am definitly innocent is funny but also revealing. If there were three wolves still then I would want to continue to fly under the radar until the last few days, so that I can cause confusion & swing votes at the most critical times possible. But now that one wolf is down & others might be on the way I need to start drawing attention to myself now - which is not going to be easy. It especially won't be easy to confuse the villagers when they are already so clear-cut as to who they want to lynch. I'm hoping that the wolves can somehow survive until at least Monday, then if I can get Mrom to take up the 'head villager' chant again & get myself appointed I can probably afford to 'go wrong' twice before the villagers decided to lynch me - at any rate I would have bought the wolves three more days. But I'm not so sure that we can last that long...I've been hoping from the start that Eomer is a wolf. If he is then I think we stand a good chance of winning, no one has suspected him & I think he would've picked up by now that I'm the cobbler. I decided to drop another subtle hint by me "shaking the cobwebs from my head" in my last post.

-Estel-


I don't know about you all, but I personally would much rather see Eomer & co.'s PMs then type up these things. Come on Eomer, bring on the main attraction!

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by lmp

Oh, and having not read past page 10 yet, let me just add that with so many villagers, to chain the shirriffs to not revealing themselves until one died, seemed unnecessary to me in the first place, and pretty much proved out that if you're going to hog-tie them, might as well not have them at all.

Well, it's really not much use to anyone else, but for the Shirriffs it's nice because there is someone who you know you can trust. I admit, though, it was frustrating not being able to directly announce my role and therefore clear myself of suspicion.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Well, it's really not much use to anyone else, but for the Shirriffs it's nice because there is someone who you know you can trust. I admit, though, it was frustrating not being able to directly announce my role and therefore clear myself of suspicion.

The post in which you defended Wilwarin was enough for me, although it maybe should not have been. You see, I had already decided that Kitanna and Elf Warrior were werewolves, and that you were neither a werewolf nor the seer. So you couldn't be defending a fellow werewolf, not being one, therefore you had to be a shirriff, and Wilwarin the other. It was nice to have you two as "known innocents", if only to my own reasoning, because that decreased the number of suspects .... which was exactly when I started getting really suspicious of Eomer & Estel; and you know the rest of the story.

Maybe it's right that the werewolves can't have the initiative taken away from them by something as structurally built in as a pair of shirriffs. I'm not sure. The way I see it, the village came awfully close to winning this game - which is part of what made it all that more enjoyable and exciting. And to think I played the entire game without my home computer having internet access! I would have posted more, but that might have gotten me into more trouble with fellow villagers for all I know. As it was, I was forced to think more and yack less.

[The Only Real Estel]

The way I see it, the village came awfully close to winning this game - which is part of what made it all that more enjoyable and exciting.

Although I obviously won't deny I was hoping to win, by the end of the game I was feeling more than a little guilty about betraying the village. But I suppose it was my job to be a turncoat...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Eomer, darling, you forgot to mention something very flattering toward me:

I knew you were a wolf the moment I came home to find myself dead (almost two weeks ago, wasn't it?).

Originally Posted by PM from Fea to Eomer

(blah blah random non-wolfish stuff about college and travel and other random stuff blah)

PS: You just moved to the permanent position of my top suspect.

He responded with a response to all the non-wolf stuff and a non-commital "Who, me? What the heck makes you think that?".

And yes, that random rep to Lhuna was from me, for anyone who can count and notice who might have done it. I assumed that since the post it was for wasn't concrete, she wouldn't know just what it was for and wouldn't be swayed by it. After all, all I said was "I'll explain this after the game." Apparently randomness is a great decision maker? To explain: I was ecstatic that someone (anyone!) suspected Eomer. Too bad it didn't work.

Beautiful work, Lhuna. I cracked up reading your posts. I had you pegged as cobbler, with Saurreg a close second. Never saw that one coming.

Fantastic modding, Firefoot.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's true, I was at the top of Fea's list all the way. It just made me all the more glad to have killed her at the start.

Thanks for all the praise but I definitely don't deserve a lot of it. We wolves were unlucky in bits but we got really lucky in other bits. Sauce remarked upon part of a brilliant strategy which was actually just a useful side-effect.

I agree with lmp: this game was extremely close and that's what made it so good.

Expect in-depth wolvish analysis.....soon! (No PMs though, we didn't save them, though I did write down all the interesting stuff: I know you want to hear it)

[the guy who be short]

Of course we do Eomer. Wolf-thoughts are always so... interesting.

And mormegil, let's sort this once and for all: how was I odd?

[The Only Real Estel]

Expect in-depth wolvish analysis.....soon! (No PMs though, we didn't save them, though I did write down all the interesting stuff: I know you want to hear it)

But no willful editing either.

For instance, if you told your fellow wolves "Estel is defending me quite a bit, he must be a hapless gullible" I still want to here it.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Sauce remarked upon part of a brilliant strategy which was actually just a useful side-effect.

I would be interested to hear your strategy for dealing with the Shirriffs though. Were you consciously avoiding killing one until you had to in order to prevent there being a known innocent?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Night One: Is agreed that we should keep our traditional gaming roles: Eomer - loudmouth; Oromin - quiet; Kitanna - in between.

Day One: Nilp takes all the attention and dies, leaving the wolves pretty inconspicious. Oromin no-shows, Kitanna bandwagons and Eomer picks out a random (Oddwen) to vote for.

Night Two: We decide that Feanor of the Peredhil is a good choice to kill. She's just too intelligent to keep alive. Her death won't reveal much because her posts were all random jumble anyway. ( ) Plus, there is just no way that Eomer would kill the beloved Fea, so Eomer is off the hook immediately. Right?

Day Two: For some reason unbeknownst to me, the village tries out my 'Oddwen theory'. We all know what happens here: Oddwen and Durelin both reveal gifts and the wolves have to try pretty damn hard not to laugh out loud. Cover it up with one of these: No Guardian to worry about.

Night Three: The gifted Durelin is the obvious choice to kill. Kitanna agrees but is now pretty sure that dancing spawn is the Seer. After all, she had an uncanny and accurate feeling about Kit, apparently from nowhere. Because of this suspicion, Kitanna volunteers to be sacrificed. It would be best if Oromin could do it but: Oromin's RL troubles are revealed. She doesn't think she'll be able to participate too much, so we have to come up with something good for her to do. We decide to confuse the hell out of the village by having Oromin declare that she is the Cobbler, then a wolf, then the Cobbler, then a wolf again. She also names her 'fellow wolves', but no-one buys it, even as a bluff. Still, worth a try. Kit sure she is going to die. Wolves decide to put all eggs into one basket. Eomer is to attack both his comrades.

Day Three: Hunter Durelin has killed Ordo tgwbs? Great elephants! What a result! Oromin leaps right in and starts making heads spin. Eomer attacks Kitanna. Firefoot rubs her eyes in disbelief ( ). Eomer suggests killing Kitanna then Oromin. dancing spawn delighted by village's decision on Kitanna. Kit dies. Village's morale increases.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Eomer on DAY 2

I must say I am baffled by the Werewolves' pick: why Fea? If anyone was going to attract suspicion now that Nilp is dead, it would be the resident pathological liar.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Night Four: The advice of the now-deceased Kitanna is heeded and we decide to kill dancing spawn of ungoliant. Eomer at least is very convinced we have the Seer. Her suspicion of Kitanna made little sense to us. Plus, we had decided on this sacrificial lamb policy so we had to follow through with it.

Day Four: O dear. Not the Seer, eh? Silent humiliation as villagers mock the wolves' judgment. Vows are made about catching the Seer very soon (true). Elf-warrior is killed and this baffles us, though in a good way. Why he attracted so much suspicion? A complete mystery....Eomer votes for Oromin (who is still not perceived to be a wolf by the village!)

Night Five: Oromin is very amused by her continued survival. Eomer is sure that Kath is the Seer (see her insistence on Oromin's guilt) but he has nagging doubts about littlemanpoet. Realises that, if littlemanpoet is the Seer, then he must die immediately. Kath probably won't dream about Eomer tonight so we can afford this.

Day Five: Oromin finally dies! But the plan has not worked out as well as we would have liked, not at all actually. There is much suspicion around Eomer. He is very worried by this.

Night Six: Lhuna is making me think that she might be the Seer. If she is then so be it: we've lost. But, I have a very good feeling that Kath is the Seer.

Day Six: Eomer actually shouts out in joy when he finds out that Kath was indeed the Seer. Saurreg inadvertantly saves me (I believe) by attacking Mormegil. Eomer not really at his best today. Makes a less than convincing vote for Mormegil. Morm just knows I'm the wolf; I'm glad he's dead. Morm and lmp really had my number and I'm so glad they died just in time.

Night Seven: Encaitare to die. Everyone knows she's innocent anyway. Plus, I think I'd find it easier to manipulate Wilwa than I would Enca (a veteran of Werewolf). But: worrying thing happens tonight. I convince Firefoot to start another DAY immediately. Later realise that this probably clears Lhuna and Saurreg from suspicion because of time zones. Luckily nobody seems to notice, but still rather worrying.

Day Seven: Eomer leaps right in, attacks and votes for Lhunardawen. Saucepan Man later supposes this to be a brilliant strategy but at the time I wondered if I had been too hasty. It had nothing to do with the Sheriffs. At least it was a pretty good assault which no-one really had an issue with. Lhuna changes her mind about me. I feel so bad for her, so sorry sis...

Night Eight: Wilwa the obvious innocent to go. I am thinking that tomorrow will be a really confusing day. A wolf, a cobbler and an Ordo who is losing the numbers game? Surely there will be three deceivers on this day! (Notice that I did not see the absolutely obvious conclusion to be drawn from this scenario - luckily TORE did. ) I even toyed with the idea of leaving wilwa alive and trying to manipulate her against Estel or Saurreg. Pointless really, I wasn't noticing the simplest solution. Even admitted this to Firefoot! Feel quite embarrassed and silly.

Day Eight: Lo and behold! It was much easier than I thought it would be.

[The Only Real Estel]

I convince Firefoot to start another DAY immediately. Later realise that this probably clears Lhuna and Saurreg from suspicion because of time zones. Luckily nobody seems to notice, but still rather worrying.

Eomer leaps right in, attacks and votes for Lhunardawen. Saucepan Man later supposes this to be a brilliant strategy but at the time I wondered if I had been too hasty.

I did think about the time zones, which further convinced me that you were the wolf - Saurreg had to much evidence against him (I had forgotten about his time zone), & Lhuna couldn't possibly give her kill to Firefoot unless I had miscalculated or she was pulling an all-nighter. I was hoping to do away with Saurreg, though, because I was least suspicious of him (I admit that was partially based on the rough calculation that the odds of him being a wolf twice in a row were 9:225, though of course I couldn't say a gameish thing like that ); but Eomer forced my hand by voting for Lhuna.

[mormegil]

But: worrying thing happens tonight. I convince Firefoot to start another DAY immediately. Later realise that this probably clears Lhuna and Saurreg from suspicion because of time zones. Luckily nobody seems to notice, but still rather worrying.

I actually picked up on this and at the time it happened I knew that you were online and therefore it fully solidified my belief. I think on something like this in the future we really ought to give at least 8 hours as a minimum.

[The Saucepan Man]

Did no one else work out that, with a known innocent (the surviving shirriff), all the innocent villagers had to do was agree that everyone except the shirriff should vote for one another? That way, either the villagers would guarantee a win (by leaving the shirriff as the sole survivor) or identify the remaining wolf and the cobbler (ie those who refused to play along). With non-retractable votes, this could have ensured a villager win. It was only Eomer pre-empting the situation which prevented this happening, and that should have aroused suspicion.

[The Only Real Estel]

DAY FOUR

Dancing Spawn is gone. What is up with all these darned ordinaries? Oh well. Morm suggests the seer reveals him/herself, I hope they have not dreamed of Eomer or else all is lost. Eomer suggests again that we lynch Oromin - I wouldn't be suprised at all if he was a wolf looking to gain innocent status by voting out both of his fellow wolves. I don't want to kill Oro for at least another DAY, I'd better post suspicions about Lhuna & someone else (#282). Since I'm saying that Oromin is the cobbler & thinking that Elf-Warrior might possibly be a wolf instead of Eomer I'd better propose we lynch Oro first (#284). Wait, I know Oro isn't the cobbler so she is a wolf so I dont' want to lynch her. Remember that! Gah. I'd better post again - 'agreeing' that maybe Oro shouldn't be lynched, I think I'll say I'm suspicious of quite a few people - this will keep the villager's minds busy & I won't run the risk of drawing much attention to any wolf(ves) (#288). Lhuna sounds sincerely innocent. Good, that's the green light I needed to go after her. Lmp points out Enca & Wilwa as sheriffs. Well, EW is going so I think I'll vote for someone who won't be lynched today anyway - Oromin. Lmp is suspicious of Eomer & I? Darn it. I'd be dig some dirt up on him without looking to defensive, I think I'll wait until tommorrow to post it though, that way we can lynch him instead of Oro. Eomer defends me. Cool. So Elf-Warrior was innocent? Good.

Saucey: I think the main thing prohibiting us from that was the wrath of the ModessGodess. Firefoot basically said she didn't want any double lynchings, so, although they were discussed briefly a few times, we never carried any out.

[the guy who be short]

Lo and behold, the phantom has hacked SpM's account...

[The Only Real Estel]

DAY FIVE

No!!! Not lmp!!! I spent all that time for nothing! We probably could've gotten a free day's worth of lynching by getting lmp but now those blasted wolves have screwed things up. Today I am severely ticked off, my whole case has gone for nothing, although I did post a bit of it at the very start of the DAY. Mormegil again suggests that the seer comes forward, I doubt Eomer will allow it. I try to paint Oromin as a cobbler that can be ignored (to save us one more day) & Lhuna as a wolf (#314). Kath quotes lmp on Eomer & I, that has got to stop, & quick. I defend Eomer, then try to take the villagers minds off of the wolves temporarily by reminding them of the Cursed Villager (#317). Oromin will probably die. Oh well, we bought some time. Mormegil grows more suspicious of Eomer & I, storm coulds are gathering. If Eomer kills Morm during the night it will be linked back to one of us so I'd better point out a possible setup now, I think I'll cast a few shadows of doubt around by questioning Morm about his early voting (#322). Now Lhuna questions Eomer & I, things are looking badly. Eomer defends our behavior in a fairly sincere way, I am not convinced but I hope the others are. Oro is definitly gone, why does Saurreg vote for Wilwarin now that it's been generally established that she is one of the sheriffs? Hmm. Ah, I was right, Eomer doesn't want the seer to come out, although he says he's pretty sure he knows who the Seer is...I guess we'll find out if the seer goes the next NIGHT or not. Brought up the possibility of Oromin being a sheriff in an effort to possibly gain her another DAY, but mostly to cause a bit of confusion. Firefoot posts earlier than I thought she would, I don't vote. Darn, we're down to one wolf & a cobbler. I doubt we'll be able to pull this off, if Eomer is about to go I'd better forget my strategy & get myself lynched that day, though I don't know how I'd do it.

PM to Firefoot:

Wow, I thought this game would be over a few days ago. To bad about Oromin, despite what "the other wolf" said it hurts to lose one this late in the game (Some cobbler I turned out to be, I cast suspicion on Kitanna early & voted for Oromin the first day! ).

Still, I'm hoping that Eomer is the final wolf, in which case him consistently staying on Oromin will help his cause.

Now that the game has reached this point I need to start causing some confusion & hopefully directing some suspicion to some innocents. Unfortunately, I can only hope that they are innocent. Saurreg is an easy target because of his confusing speech & early vote - an early vote like that would be a ridiculous thing for a wolf to do, so I'm attacking him a little hoping that he's innocent. Hopefully I can pacify Mormegil by putting him low on my suspect list...I need to stay alive for two more lynchings if at all possible so I can vote for myself on the last DAY, that way the wolf will get an easy majority by voting for me & we will win. Of course I'll look like an idiot for trying to stay in the shadows if a wolf gets hung before then .

If only the wolves hadn't wasted a night on lmp, I had nearly an airtight case against him that I was ready to post as soon as the DAY started - then I found out he was dead. *Sigh*

If Eomer or Mormegil (but especially Eomer) is the wolf than I think we stand a good chance of winning - if not I have no idea what will happen because I'm pretty much banking my entire strategy (such as it is) on the hope that Eomer is the wolf. Well, we'll see what happens, hopefully we can get Lhuna hung since she is suspicious & probably is not a wolf.

-Estel-

Apoligies for the length.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I have told him via PM but I should really make this public: Estel was certain I was a wolf all the way through; I, on the other hand, considered him to be a gullible ordinary villager to play off of!

[The Only Real Estel]

Oh well, Eomer. It means that absolutely no one suspected me of being a Cobbler. Though I see I was a bit too assuming when I told Firefoot "I think he would've picked up by now that I'm the cobbler."

DAY SIX

Kath is dead. So Eomer did know who the seer was. Eomer brings up Lhuna being a cobbler, she's my main lynching candidate. Saurreg votes early, I plan to use that against him, but it's also good to see some suspicion being directed towards Mormegil. Still, I think I should create some sort of suspect list with Morm close to the bottom - if I don't show signs of suspecting him (like I began to do yesterday) maybe he will lay off of Eomer & I (#339). Ah, although Morm admits that Eomer & Estel could be acting very wolvish but he mostly thinks we are innocent (for now). Either my list ploy worked or something else did, I don't care much which. Lhuna suggests a Eomer/Estel alliance - may it never be! Hopefully I can use this to 'show' that she is trying to shift attention off of herself. Eomer again lightly suspects than quickly acquits a villager, this time it's Saurreg. Looks like Mormegil will go; I'm going to, once again, cast my vote for someone who won't be lynched today - Lhuna. I make up a good case against her just for good measure so I can use it the next DAY (#361). Post my 2000th post on the wolf thread. Yay. Eomer & I start to theorize on the Cobbler's possible motives. I use this to hopefully get through to him that I am the Cobbler, though I drop no real hints (he didn't pick up on it); & to 'show' that Lhuna must go next round or else all will be lost, barring a lucky (unlucky to Eomer & I ) guess on the villagers part. Morm is dead. Good.

DAY SEVEN

Not much here. Enca is dead, which is a smart move because not only is she a known innocent, but from what I remember Wilwarin will be very limited in the time she has today. Eomer says "I am not a double-bluffing wolf." I still bet that he is. Although I suppose it could, techinically, be Lhuna or Saurreg. But they both look to guilty & we all know Wilwa is innocent. Ah, a quick vote from Eomer, I am now convinced again. I was hoping to go for Saurreg for a few reasons, not the least of which the sheer odds of him being a wolf twice in a row. Oh well, Lhuna it is. I throw in my "anyone who doesn't vote for Lhuna I would be very suspicious of" line just for good measure. Our early voting will probably make us both look guilty, but all we need is for one person to join us & the village will be done for. Lhuna proclaims me "the greatest double-bluffing wolf of all time" & votes for me (that would make a good sig!). Eomer covers for me a bit, hopefully it will be enough. Wilwa votes for Lhuna. Barring a colossal mistake from Eomer the village is done for. At least I am still 80% sure that the wolf is Eomer but his pleas of innocence are so convincing that I am at least 20% unsure. I wish I could've gone after Saurreg. Lhuna is dead & she was no wolf. *Whew. It is now obviously Eomer but as long as he doesn't screw up & kill me at night it's over & done.

Two PMs to Firefoot that show I'm getting a bit nervous:

Well, once again I'm hanging all my hopes on Eomer. Lhuna acts like a wolf, which is why she's an easy target, I just hope she's not the wolf otherwise I'll look horrible as a Cobbler. I was going to bring up Saurreg because, although I don't have time to go back & get the exact # of participants in the last two games, just saying there were 15 villagers in each game the odds of him being a wolf twice in a row are roughly 9:225 - so I doubt he's the wolf & I probably couldn't go wrong voting for him. Still, if Eomer is the wolf I have to go along with him...I just hope I'm not wrong!!!

We only need one more vote for a majority so I guess we'll find out soon...cross your fingers.

-Estel-

p.s. Wow, I feel like a turncoat.

This one comes after further review of Eomer's 'innocent pleas' & before Lhuna's confirmation as an innocent:

Darn it. I've been reading some of Eomer's posts & it does seem like there is less chance of him being the wolf than I thought...gah, the suspense is killing me. Maybe I should've gone after Saurreg after all...let the second-guesses begin!

-Estel-

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

No. Absolutely blind to your hints! Which is a real shame because they really were rather excellent. I wish I could say that I picked up on these subtle clues but I really didn't.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Estel

I was going to bring up Saurreg because, although I don't have time to go back & get the exact # of participants in the last two games, just saying there were 15 villagers in each game the odds of him being a wolf twice in a row are roughly 9:225

Ah, but you know that the probabilities are independant each time, so he had exactly the same chance of being a wolf as anybody else...

[The Only Real Estel]

Eomer, the problem with subtle hints is they might just be innocent comments that you've read too much into. And as a wolf that could be especially disastrous! Besides, it worked out, fortunately. I also said at one point that I was not the seer - I didn't want to be killed during the night on suspicion of being the seer, & I figured that even if you didn't catch any of the hints as long as I defended you somewhat you'd keep me around.

TGWBS, although what you say is true I still would not expect someone to ever be a wolf, say, three times in a row. Being one twice in a row wouldn't be such a trick, but that still partially played into my thinking...just like the fact that Eomer hadn't been a wolf yet was one small piece in my "Eomer=Wolf" puzzle.

My last PM to Firefoot (after Lhuna's confirmed innocence):

...it looks like I was right...or at least right enough. As long as the wolf doesn't stupidly kill me our victory is nigh! *insert the evil smiley that we no longer have*

-Estel-

p.s. I should come up with some sort of spiteful in-character final post...I suppose I should think about that.

DAY EIGHT

Wilwarin was killed, Eomer did not screw up. My only challenge is to get my post in before anyone screws up my plan by voting. Fortunately, I worked it all out the night before so it was a simply job of copying/pasting. I post a final "in-character" post, Saurreg posts, Eomer wishes my soul rest & avenges his fallen comrades by voting for me. Saurreg is slain by Eomer & I trot of to my house, where I complete the only successful lynching of the village & am still hanging there, swaying in the dusty wind...

[Durelin]

I swear I realized at 1 o'clock in the morning after I had PMed Firefoot on Night 3 that I had made a very big mistake... And guess what? Something told me I should've said I wanted to kill Eomer....blast!