WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth - Page 11 - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Inziladun · 10-12-2010, 12:48 PM

If we don't want to go with skip, Ozban still looks like a good bet to me. And his lynch could tell us something about others, perhaps, namely skip and Eönwë.

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 12:50 PM

I'd prefer Skip to Steve or Ozzy, but I'm guessing that those three are our pack (wild guess, but a guess nonetheless) so I'd be okay with any of them.

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 12:51 PM

I'm not finding anyone more likely. Only that Wilwa's vote baffles me.

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 12:52 PM

Skip, take it down a notch and be sensible. We can't believe you just like that, and I believe we'd all benefit if you'd try to explain yourself once more, because you - are - not - making - sense. You're starting to look cobbler to me, but the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense.

EDIT: x-ed with a host

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lottie

I'd prefer Skip to Steve or Ozzy, but I'm guessing that those three are our pack (wild guess, but a guess nonetheless) so I'd be okay with any of them.

I've been thinking along the same crazy lines, actually, though I'm not convinced in the slightest. I doubt we'll find a likelier wolf candidate than Skip though, the way he's going.

Inziladun · 10-12-2010, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Skip, take it down a notch and be sensible. We can't believe you just like that, and I believe we'd all benefit if you'd try to explain yourself once more, because you - are - not - making - sense. You're starting to look cobbler to me, but the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense.

That's the problem. Skip's ploy doesn't make a lot of sense from any angle, but it's even more bizarre to have been a Cobbler stunt. If he's the Cobbler, I don't see why he didn't just take the lynch for the wolves.

x/d with Greenie

Eönwë · 10-12-2010, 12:57 PM

If we vote the hunter and they choose someone innocent we've lost the game. If they choose a Wolf, we have two more Days, I believe, in order to catch one.

If we vote someone else and they're an Ordo, just two separate votes from innocents toMorrow will seal our fate. If we vote a Wolf, we have two more Days, I think.

So do we go for Skip or Wilwa, or do we go for someone else entirely?

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inzil

That's the problem. Skip's ploy doesn't make a lot of sense from any angle, but it's even more bizzare to have been a Cobbler stunt. If he's the Cobbler, I don't see why he didn't just take the lynch for the wolves.

Exactly. I see most sense in a Skippywolf doing that than an innocent or a cobbler. Not convinced, though.

EDIT: x-ed with Steve

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense.

But a wolf making desperate steps would make sense.

If Skip is a wolf and pulled himself out from the lynch yesterDay with that hunter-impression he had to come up with something toDay - later the Day - when wilwa had counter-revealed and it started looking that maybe more people tended to trust wilwa than him. And that is a nice plan indeed - and makes sense.

EDIT: X'd with a few

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:01 PM

All that I will add is that the wolves (and the cobbler who'll probably hold his/her vote until very late) can afford to vote together today if they have to, but if one more innocent votes for another person than those who have votes already, namely Green and Lottie, they don't have to and they win. So, again, don't spread your votes, fellow ordos! We're as good as dead, but there's still a slim hope...

Boromir88 · 10-12-2010, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Skip, take it down a notch and be sensible. We can't believe you just like that, and I believe we'd all benefit if you'd try to explain yourself once more, because you - are - not - making - sense. You're starting to look cobbler to me, but the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense.

That's what made sense yesterday I mean if Skip is the cobbler and wouldn't know the wolves. Unless he was outright sure about his judgement that Legate was not a wolf and then threatened Inzil into not voting for him.

However the cobbler can be a giant mess in the voting the last days when it's this tight. And by really unexpectedly fighting to not get lynched he's done just that today.

Argh, even if we get the cobbler today it's still a must kill wolf situation tomorrow. Almost seems like prolonging the inevitable. Or we just go out all for broke today, go for someone else if it's a wolf we get ourselves a bit more time (2 wolves, 6 innocents - including hunter and cobbler). If we're wrong then well we're wrong and this game ends. Drag out this seemingly long torture or go all or nothing?

Edit: crossed with a bunch

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 01:02 PM

There is hardly anyone 100% convinced. And there is hardly any way to do so now in such a short time. I shall vote with the majority. That seems only thing reasonable in this whole situation. Decide yourself, I'm gonna grab something to drink. Be right back.

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

But a wolf making desperate steps would make sense.

If Skip is a wolf and pulled himself out from the lynch yesterDay with that hunter-impression he had to come up with something toDay - later the Day - when wilwa had counter-revealed and it started looking that maybe more people tended to trust wilwa than him. And that is a nice plan indeed - and makes sense.

Exactly. It's still kind of insane but certainly makes more sense than an innocent doing that. Or a cobbler.

EDIT: x-ed with Skip, Boro and Ozzy

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

All that I will add is that the wolves (and the cobbler who'll probably hold his/her vote until very late) can afford to vote together today if they have to, but if one more innocent votes for another person than those who have votes already, namely Green and Lottie, they don't have to and they win. So, again, don't spread your votes, fellow ordos! We're as good as dead, but there's still a slim hope...

I fear he might actually be right.

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozban

I fear he might actually be right.

Random thought: This dismalism is pretty much only used by Skip and Ozzy. It's possibe that the wolves are so sure of their victory, that they think the innocents are, too - so they're trying not to seem confident and excited, but unconfident and depressed. Just a thought.

Inziladun · 10-12-2010, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozban

I fear he might actually be right.

But skip is saying that we must vote for Lottie or Greenie. More manipulation?

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip

All that I will add is that the wolves (and the cobbler who'll probably hold his/her vote until very late) can afford to vote together today if they have to, but if one more innocent votes for another person than those who have votes already, namely Green and Lottie, they don't have to and they win. So, again, don't spread your votes, fellow ordos! We're as good as dead, but there's still a slim hope...

You seem awfully sure that the ones who voted for me and Lottie were doing the right thing. I can say for myself that voting me was stupid. I don't think Lottie is a wolf though for all I know she could be. I'd rather vote you.

Besides, if one of the votes already given is by a wolf (meaning you), it means we still have seven people to vote, only two of whom are wolves. It would be a mistake to believe the lynch is settled, or that it has to be either me or Lottie, because the case is anything but that.

EDIT: x-ed since my last

Boromir88 · 10-12-2010, 01:15 PM

This is when I really need wilwa around. Innocent or not, refuse to trust Skip's judgement, and I'm wary of what Lottie and Nog have to do in all this...

I was going to I'd trust what Ozban wanted, but it seems like he also is stuck and confused as I am. At this point my heads scrabbled. I haven't given the look at Greenie today like I wanted, and now it's probably late. I usually have an excellent read on Zil and I've had an innocent feeling through most of this game...so Zil, your last ideas here about what you want t do? (Sorry if I missed it and you have to repeat it. There's been so much hectic cross posting)

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:17 PM

Oh, and the cobbler is still out there, but can we assume the cobbler knows who the wolves are and can vote with them?

EDIT: x-ed with Boro

Inziladun · 10-12-2010, 01:20 PM

I think my first preference might be skip, with Ozban a very close second.

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:22 PM

Could we get enough people to vote Skip? He's our best bet I'd say. I'll vote Lottie to avoid getting lynched myself if I have to, but I don't find her all that suspicious, but like I said I'd prefer Skip.

EDIT: x-ed with Inzil

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Could we get enough people to vote Skip? He's our best bet I'd say. I'll vote Lottie to avoid getting lynched myself if I have to, but I don't find her all that suspicious, but like I said I'd prefer Skip.

I think we could. I'd vote him. I don't suspect you, either, and I absolutely don't trust skip.

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:25 PM

Arg! now Holland is destroying Sweden too...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green

You seem awfully sure that the ones who voted for me and Lottie were doing the right thing.

I'm not sure that you and Lottie are wolves. I'm pretty certain.

I was just stating the stone cold truth. There are three wolves and a cobbler out there and they will vote together if they have to (if the cobbler isn't stupid which I doubt) because they have nothing to lose from it if they get an innocent. Then they win. That makes four votes. If they all vote me (which I find certain at this point) the remaining three ordos must vote for the same person, you Greenie or Lottie, to force a draw. Then we ordos might get lucky with the coin-toss.

It is possible that one or both of you are innocent, but I highly doubt it.

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip

I was just stating the stone cold truth. There are three wolves and a cobbler out there and they will vote together if they have to (if the cobbler isn't stupid which I doubt) because they have nothing to lose from it if they get an innocent. then they win. That makes four votes. If they all vote me (which I find all but certain at this point) the remaining three ordos must vote for the same person, you Greenie or Lottie, to force a draw. Then we ordos might get lucky with the coin-toss.

It is possible that one or both of you are innocent, but I highly doubt it.

Unless you're a wolf, meaning that we only have two wolves and a cobbler to vote, as opposed to four ordos.

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 01:28 PM

Okay. Now back for the rest of the Day.

And this is just crazy.

Skip's maths probably work - in case he is an innocent and there are four evil-intended votes to come. But if he's not an innocent - and a wolf - and happy with the choices... that would be his best bet to kind of force us to lynch an innocent.

But even if there were four votes to come it is not the end of the game. I'm not sure if the wolves would be too happy to vote in concerto toDay as they'd still need to manage it toMorrow...

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:31 PM

I'd suggest voting sooner rather than later. Last-minute voting flurries often end up with cross-posting and confusion. It'd be better, I think, to vote together now (or soon) instead of right at DL.

Boromir88 · 10-12-2010, 01:33 PM

Thing is Zil I think Skip is the cobbler and Ozban, well I'm feeling better about than some others so...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

I think we could. I'd vote him. I don't suspect you, either, and I absolutely don't trust skip.

I don't trust Skip because I think he's the cobbler. I don't trust you in all this because weren't you the one who came in after Day 1 to say you tried to look like the seer? I thought "Makes sense I've tried that before," but now not that sure.

So, the likely cobbler-Skip or a shot in the dark for a chance at a wolf? Cobbler would still put us in a desperate situation tomorrow. I'm going all or nothing and not putting my head through another desperate situation the next day.

++Lottie

Either a wolf where tomorrow we can regather and relax from this psychotic day today or innocent and in that case it's over.

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:33 PM

Ack, since I'm pretty sure Skip is a wolf and can't say that about anyone else - and if I'm right and he's a wolf we still have more innocent than evil votes to come. Besides, we can't afford a last-minute voting chaos now.

++ Skip

EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and Boro - ouch, if Boro is innocent we're goners..

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Unless you're a wolf, meaning that we only have two wolves and a cobbler to vote, as opposed to four ordos.

Yes obviously. I'm aware that the ordos don't know that I'm not a wolf, unfortunately. But I know the truth. And I'm sure you do too.

But think of me as a wolf as an experiment. Who would my fellows be?

Then think of me as an innocent. Who would attack me?

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 01:33 PM

To me then...

It could be Lottie whom I have suspected a long time now and whom we have failed to lynch thus far.

It could be Skip whose acts toDay look wolvish - or at least suicidal-cobblerish.

Of others I'm not too sure about.

EDIT: X'd with two votes...

Inziladun · 10-12-2010, 01:34 PM

All right. I guess someone has to take the plunge.

There doesn't seem to be any support for going after Ozban, and neither Greenie nor Lottie look as bad as skip.

++skip

x/d with Boro, Greenie, skip, and Nog

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

But think of me as a wolf as an experiment. Who would my fellows be?

Steve and Ozzy.

Quote:

Then think of me as an innocent. Who would attack me?

If you were an innocent, you wouldn't have acted this way. At least, I don't think you would have. Because, you see, for an innocent, this is insane.

++Skip

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. Now back for the rest of the Day.

And this is just crazy.

Skip's maths probably work - in case he is an innocent and there are four evil-intended votes to come. But if he's not an innocent - and a wolf - and happy with the choices... that would be his best bet to kind of force us to lynch an innocent.

But even if there were four votes to come it is not the end of the game. I'm not sure if the wolves would be too happy to vote in concerto toDay as they'd still need to manage it toMorrow...

Nogrod, the cobbler can sit back, wait and follow the wolves lead. They'd know each other toMorrow and be 4 against 3. It would be the end.

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:37 PM

Ozzy and Nogrod, now I know you are innocent. Go for Lottie!

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip

Nogrod, the cobbler can sit back, wait and follow the wolves lead. They'd know each other toMorrow and be 4 against 3. It would be the end.

How can you be so sure in your pessimistic scenario that the cobbler will see who the wolves are?

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Nogrod, the cobbler can sit back, wait and follow the wolves lead. They'd know each other toMorrow and be 4 against 3. It would be the end.

At the moment, I'm thinking either Boro or Nog is the cobbler, and I'm leaning towards Boro. Thought you ought to know.

Also, don't vote me. Mkay?

EDIT: x'd with Greenie

skip spence · 10-12-2010, 01:39 PM

Hold on, I miscounted, didn't I? There's still one baddie out there.

Loslote · 10-12-2010, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

How can you be so sure in your pessimistic scenario that the cobbler will see who the wolves are?

Well, it's not that hard to tell at the moment...just follow Skip's lead, ala Boro - who, you'll recall, wanted us to ignore Skip instead of lynching him.

Ozban · 10-12-2010, 01:40 PM

+ + Skip

Hope you're not ordo, you scared puppy.

A Little Green · 10-12-2010, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skip

Ozzy and Nogrod, now I know you are innocent. Go for Lottie!

How do you "know" they are innocent? Because they haven't voted for you? Has it crossed your mind at all that an innocent might find your actions alarming too?

EDIT: x-ed since my last

10-12-2010, 12:48 PM	#401
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,037	If we don't want to go with skip, Ozban still looks like a good bet to me. And his lynch could tell us something about others, perhaps, namely skip and Eönwë. __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God.

10-12-2010, 12:50 PM	#402
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	I'd prefer Skip to Steve or Ozzy, but I'm guessing that those three are our pack (wild guess, but a guess nonetheless) so I'd be okay with any of them. __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

10-12-2010, 12:51 PM	#403
Ozban Haunting Spirit Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: On the road, again... Posts: 73	I'm not finding anyone more likely. Only that Wilwa's vote baffles me. __________________ Let us sit upon the ground, and tell sad stories of the death of kings. - Shakespeare (Richard II)

10-12-2010, 12:52 PM	#404
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	Skip, take it down a notch and be sensible. We can't believe you just like that, and I believe we'd all benefit if you'd try to explain yourself once more, because you - are - not - making - sense. You're starting to look cobbler to me, but the problem is that a cobbler taking desperate measures to save themselves doesn't make sense. EDIT: x-ed with a host __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

10-12-2010, 12:57 PM	#407
Eönwë Flame Imperishable Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Right here Posts: 3,928	If we vote the hunter and they choose someone innocent we've lost the game. If they choose a Wolf, we have two more Days, I believe, in order to catch one. If we vote someone else and they're an Ordo, just two separate votes from innocents toMorrow will seal our fate. If we vote a Wolf, we have two more Days, I think. So do we go for Skip or Wilwa, or do we go for someone else entirely? __________________ Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place

10-12-2010, 01:01 PM	#410
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	All that I will add is that the wolves (and the cobbler who'll probably hold his/her vote until very late) can afford to vote together today if they have to, but if one more innocent votes for another person than those who have votes already, namely Green and Lottie, they don't have to and they win. So, again, don't spread your votes, fellow ordos! We're as good as dead, but there's still a slim hope... __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan

10-12-2010, 01:02 PM	#412
Ozban Haunting Spirit Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: On the road, again... Posts: 73	There is hardly anyone 100% convinced. And there is hardly any way to do so now in such a short time. I shall vote with the majority. That seems only thing reasonable in this whole situation. Decide yourself, I'm gonna grab something to drink. Be right back. __________________ Let us sit upon the ground, and tell sad stories of the death of kings. - Shakespeare (Richard II)

10-12-2010, 01:15 PM	#418
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,518	This is when I really need wilwa around. Innocent or not, refuse to trust Skip's judgement, and I'm wary of what Lottie and Nog have to do in all this... I was going to I'd trust what Ozban wanted, but it seems like he also is stuck and confused as I am. At this point my heads scrabbled. I haven't given the look at Greenie today like I wanted, and now it's probably late. I usually have an excellent read on Zil and I've had an innocent feeling through most of this game...so Zil, your last ideas here about what you want t do? (Sorry if I missed it and you have to repeat it. There's been so much hectic cross posting) __________________ Fenris Penguin

10-12-2010, 01:17 PM	#419
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	Oh, and the cobbler is still out there, but can we assume the cobbler knows who the wolves are and can vote with them? EDIT: x-ed with Boro __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

10-12-2010, 01:20 PM	#420
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,037	I think my first preference might be skip, with Ozban a very close second. __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God.

10-12-2010, 01:22 PM	#421
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	Could we get enough people to vote Skip? He's our best bet I'd say. I'll vote Lottie to avoid getting lynched myself if I have to, but I don't find her all that suspicious, but like I said I'd prefer Skip. EDIT: x-ed with Inzil __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

10-12-2010, 01:28 PM	#425
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Okay. Now back for the rest of the Day. And this is just crazy. Skip's maths probably work - in case he is an innocent and there are four evil-intended votes to come. But if he's not an innocent - and a wolf - and happy with the choices... that would be his best bet to kind of force us to lynch an innocent. But even if there were four votes to come it is not the end of the game. I'm not sure if the wolves would be too happy to vote in concerto toDay as they'd still need to manage it toMorrow... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-12-2010, 01:31 PM	#426
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	I'd suggest voting sooner rather than later. Last-minute voting flurries often end up with cross-posting and confusion. It'd be better, I think, to vote together now (or soon) instead of right at DL. __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

10-12-2010, 01:33 PM	#428
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	Ack, since I'm pretty sure Skip is a wolf and can't say that about anyone else - and if I'm right and he's a wolf we still have more innocent than evil votes to come. Besides, we can't afford a last-minute voting chaos now. ++ Skip EDIT: x-ed with Lottie and Boro - ouch, if Boro is innocent we're goners.. __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

10-12-2010, 01:33 PM	#430
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	To me then... It could be Lottie whom I have suspected a long time now and whom we have failed to lynch thus far. It could be Skip whose acts toDay look wolvish - or at least suicidal-cobblerish. Of others I'm not too sure about. EDIT: X'd with two votes... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-12-2010, 01:34 PM	#431
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,037	All right. I guess someone has to take the plunge. There doesn't seem to be any support for going after Ozban, and neither Greenie nor Lottie look as bad as skip. ++skip x/d with Boro, Greenie, skip, and Nog __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God. Last edited by Inziladun; 10-12-2010 at 01:37 PM. Reason: corrected x/post list

10-12-2010, 01:37 PM	#434
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	Ozzy and Nogrod, now I know you are innocent. Go for Lottie! __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan

10-12-2010, 01:39 PM	#437
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	Hold on, I miscounted, didn't I? There's still one baddie out there. __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan

10-12-2010, 01:40 PM	#439
Ozban Haunting Spirit Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: On the road, again... Posts: 73	+ + Skip Hope you're not ordo, you scared puppy. __________________ Let us sit upon the ground, and tell sad stories of the death of kings. - Shakespeare (Richard II)