Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It could be the hour, but Form seems to be equating silence with guilt (even while he says he isn't doing it), and I don't like it one bit. Do keep in mind that I was out for basically an entire Day, so my post count is naturally going to be stunted.

That's my point: your mention count SHOULD be stunted, and yet, despite that, you're still being well out-mentioned by the village relative to Greenie and Lommy. 13 mention/quotes apiece means they were basically getting a spot in everyone's "here's how I feel about the whole village" posts and close to nothing more.

With a whole day more voting-worth-mentioning to go off, they are somehow MORE under-the-radar than you.

And, no, I'm not saying under-the-radar equates to Wolves, but by definition it means a lack of real scrutiny, and that is exactly where the Wolves would want to hide. The answer isn't to just lynch the least-scrutinised member; it's to scrutinise them.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Granted, if it turns out Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink that

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

... Form is my top suspect, unsurprisingly. If Form is a wolf, I may have to do some serious reconsidering on people

Because, like Shasta, I am extra-aware of my mentions, these two sentences stuck out to me, especially as they were repeated twice. Most of Sally's post emphasises her suspicion of me... but twice there is this line "if Form is a wolf, I may have to rethink."

Granted, it's about me, but I'm bothered by this. Shouldn't you start thinking through those consequences NOW, before you kill off the village's fifth ordo? And if the whole mass of your suspicions doesn't jive with me being a Wolf, reconsider them NOW rather than wasting a whole day--and a whole Innocent vote?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Form - honestly, with as much suspicion as he's been getting, the fact that he hasn't been executed yet speaks to him being saved. The traction seems to be there, but it dies off at the last second. There's something to that, I think - I'll give it a look tomorrow.

I agree with these words, but not with what I think is the thought behind them: I think I have been saved, by the Wolves--but not because I am one. With as much suspicion as I am garnering, it is in the best interests of the Wolves to keep me around as long as possible to deflect attention from them. Then, when the critical mass finally builds up and you all lynch me, they can point to the evidence that they weren't sure about me on Days 1 and 2 i their defence.

And, of course, if they buy the "Form is a Cobbler" theory, they would want to keep me around for that reason.

On which note: there's not a whole lot I can do to shake that at this point, since short of the Boro opening the heavens and speaking in my favour, you're not going to have proof of anything till I'm dead. But, isn't the point of a Cobbler help the Wolves? I have participated in the death of no Known Innocents yet! My vote for Nilp was admittedly closer to a throwaway than aught else, and my suspicions of Kath are shared by others, but until either of them are proven Innocent (especially Kath), how can my votes be determined as Cobblery?

In each case, I've voted relatively early (none of this "last fifteen minutes" cluster that Legate wrings his hands over)--but I have added to existing waggons: both of which would have saved a Known Innocent had the village followed. Granted, there's no guarantee a different Innocent might not have died, but we KNOW Known Innocents did.

So, I submit: if I am a Cobbler, am I a good one?

[Kath]

BG as the Night kill? I guess the wolves really couldn't really afford to ignore the 'Will I dream Dave?' title just in case BG really was the Seer, but I'd imagine even they had to think it was a long shot. BG had been gaining some suspicion within the village so leaving them alive would have been better for the wolves, so I guess they felt the possibility of Seerishness was worth it.

In terms of the Medium yesterDay, I have to say that as soon as I saw the reveal that it was Brinn I had to laugh. And I am assuming it's a bit of a holdover from last game. With that said, I don't think the Dead Thread would do so if they actually thought Brinn was a wolf at this point. Not saying that she isn't one, just that they don't think she is.

I am now going to sound reactionary because from what I've read toDay I am concerned about Greenie. As I'm her top suspect, that may well be because she's trying to get me lynched, but actually it was what she said to Legate that made me look again.

Originally Posted by Greenie

This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote.

This just seemed a little harsh! Last minute voting is often an issue and I just don't recall her being so up in arms over it.

How about a Greenie-Legate-Nilp + someone else wolf pack. I've nothing to back that up but I can imagine the logic vs kamikaze battles would be intense.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I actually thought the opposite – BG did cause controversy but towards the end of the Day I remember the consensus seeming more like “she wouldn’t do this if she was a wolf”.

Well that's true, but I don't think the controversy magically went away with the switch of the Day. I, for one, still considered her suspicious and she would have been my top suspect if it weren't for Nog.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This still doesn’t make sense. How could the two-vote Kathwagon be an attempt to save Nog when Nog didn’t have any votes at the time? Sure, Nog was under quite a bit of fire throughout the Day, but at that point there were already people saying he’s starting to look more like a frustrated innocent.

Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

As for why I picked Kath over Nog – I thought there was a good case against both of them, but there was also a decent argument for Nog’s innocence (ie. his confusion about wolf PM rules on D1), whereas I couldn’t think of as solid an argument for Kath’s. Now I wish I’d articulated this better yesterDay, though I’m not sure if it would have actually swayed any of the Nog voters.

To be fair, that sounds a bit like hand-washing now. But fair enough.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

But, isn't the point of a Cobbler help the Wolves? I have participated in the death of no Known Innocents yet!

I was about to say that Form's latest posts make him seem better - until this last sentence. There is a reasonable build-up of arguments before there, and then it suddenly goes into "I haven't lynched an innocent". That's no argument for anything. (And often, actually, quite the opposite, for Wolves who like to keep their hands clean.)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold. A plus after the name indicates the Medium.)

+2156: Greenie – Kath (Kath – 1)
+2320: BG – Form (Kath – 1, Form – 1)
+2330: Form – Kath (Kath – 2, Form – 1)
+2337: Mac – Nilp (Kath – 2, Form – 1, Nilp – 1)
+2337: Nilp – Mac (Kath – 2, Form – 1, Nilp – 1, Mac – 1)
+2344: Lommy – Form (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 1, Mac – 1)
+2351: Kath – Nilp (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1)
+2352: Rikae – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 1)
+2352: Legate – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 2, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 2)
+2353: Nog – Form (Kath – 2, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 2)
+2354: Pitch – Nog (Kath – 2, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 3)
+2355: Sally – Kath (Kath – 3, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 3)
+2355: Brinn+ – Nog (Kath – 3, Form – 3, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 5)
+2400: Shasta – Form (Kath – 3, Form – 4, Nilp – 2, Mac – 1, Nog – 5)

Two things stood out:

• Kath voted for me with 9 minutes left. She was in the lead, and she remained so after her vote. I don't know if crossposting accounts for this because the second vote for her was twenty minutes before she gave me a second vote. Just found that weird.
• The Nogwaggon rolled out with eight minutes and seven votes left. The leading vote-getter to that point had two. Even without the Medium, saving Nog required the other three voters to focus fire, so to speak. Splitting the votes for Form (Nog and Shasta) and one for Kath (Sally) ensured that the four votes were enough.
  Why Nogrod? If any (or many) of those in danger (Kath, Form, and me) are Wolves, then it's because he's an Ordo with a reasonable amount of supsicion around him. Of course, in the unlikely case that the three of us were baddies, then the one baddie vote (barring Dead thread intervention, which should be unpredictable) shouldn't have been enough to push Nog over the line. I believe this scenario to be highly unlikely.
  What if there were only one Wolf, but two Cobbler-like figures the lycans would like to keep around? Three baddie votes would be enough to push the Nogwaggon into the lead. But why risk introducing a new lynch candidate when there are two pre-existing vote-getters already? This scenario also feels unlikely, but less so than the previous one.
  My gut feel is that the Nogwaggon wasn't created by Wolves to save a packmate or a possible Cobbler, even though one or two carnivores might have voted for him.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Sally

For Mac. Pretty simple, though I'm not sure I agree with my past self anymore.

Ack, I somehow missed that post. Derps.


Now responding to Greenie, Form was close to getting lynched twice in a row, and if he's innocent, it gets really easy for a wolf to just tag along with the suspicions against him (and yes, I realize that's kind of what I'm doing toDay, shush! ), so I get where you're coming from.

So no, I'm not convinced Form is a wolf, but I suspect it. Right now I would say he's number 3 on my list after Pitch and Nilp.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Why is a scenario where Kath is a wolf and Form isn’t not an option?

Obviously it's not impossible, but Kath and Form were tied and her vote did not sound like it had much thought of self-preservation behind it. Of course, wolfKath might've just played it cool.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I don’t think consistency equals innocence

By itself, of course not. But Brinn seemed genuinely happy and surprised by being able to vote for him and it did not have a sinister ring to me.


Now regarding Legate...

Originally Posted by Greenie

Kath had two votes by this point, so calling it a Kathwagon is stretching it

She had two out of three votes cast - there was a waggon on its rails and it was ready to go. It just didn't take off.

Originally Posted by Legate

if I go back to his reasoning before the actual vote, the original suspicion is rather random.

He latched on to the "if the wolves thought Lottie was the seer then why is Mac still alive" thing that Nog brought up (though Nilp says he thought of it on his own), and this was his reason for suspecting me (while Nog didn't take it that far). I thought the reason was bad and suspected him in turn.
Not the most solid of suspicions, and reflecting I might have gotten carried away by being annoyed by it, but it was not one bit random and I don't know how you got that impression.

Originally Posted by Legate

Pre-emptive, obviously. It basically seemed like Nog was causing a lot of controversy and suddenly, there came votes for unexpectedly (at least in my perspective back there) Kath and it looked like it was a stone starting to roll. That's it.

I have to echo Greenie here, this doesn't make sense.
-The votes for Kath were not unexpected, Greenie's at any rate was predictable.
-The general suspicion of Nogrod seemed to lessen at the time.
-If the wolves find it necessary to start a pre-emptive(!) bandwaggon to save a fellow, they will usually decide that instead it's time for that fellow to catch a bus. Especially with a large pack and on Day2.


So yeah, the Kathwaggon was there for sure, but if it was wolf-led then the person it points to is Form, no matter how little Greenie likes to hear that.

And Legate continues to feel off and I hope I will get a chance to take a closer look at him toDay.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

So yeah, the Kathwaggon was there for sure, but if it was wolf-led then the person it points to is Form, no matter how little Greenie likes to hear that.

Reading my own sentence again here, I'm not making sense. If the waggon was wolf-led, it of course points to Form, he was the only one in there.

*sigh*

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I also do not see where did Rikae's vote for Nog exactly come from. Care to elaborate? Rikae has become increasingly untransparent to me. Same goes for Pitch's vote, only he's been untransparent already before. Why Nog and not somebody else?

Sorry if it was unclear. I had posted about my suspicions of him earlier and at that point it looked like my top suspect wouldn't be on the table unless I acted rapidly.

Originally Posted by Mac

Reading my own sentence again here, I'm not making sense. If the waggon was wolf-led, it of course points to Form, he was the only one in there.

Eeh? Don't get me wrong, you look innocent to me, but I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean.

Originally Posted by Form

In each case, I've voted relatively early (none of this "last fifteen minutes" cluster that Legate wrings his hands over)--but I have added to existing waggons: both of which would have saved a Known Innocent had the village followed. Granted, there's no guarantee a different Innocent might not have died, but we KNOW Known Innocents did.

So, I submit: if I am a Cobbler, am I a good one?

Really? You voted cleanly, so you're not a cobbler? I agree, though, you are not ...

[Thinlómien]

Here!

First impressions: side-eyeing Nog voters very hard. There is a very fishy reek to the whole business.

Very surprised to see BG gone because I seem to recall her thinking there was no seer in the whole game?? Did the wolves think that was a bizarre bluff? She must have been onto something then.

Now off to read and comment.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I've been trying to read back on some of the people I have less read on, starting with Nilp and while I was at it, I also took a look at Mac. Since I'm doing so in-between breaks at work, it's a quest for several hours, but since it seems quiet, hopefully I'll manage to finish it before it starts to be busy again...

Nilp started the first Day by self-voting followed by Cobbler boots and talking about "if I were a Nightmare Wolf, I would..." After that, it went gradually more thoughtful and reasonable (mostly, at least whenever he got to say something non-banter-y). The second Day, he had some very reasonable points, followed by suspicion of Mac - on rather random grounds, however, basically, by way of assuming that the Wolves had to be one of Nog, me and Mac - that far I can still follow - and then concluding that it was Mac without much of a reasoning. I would like to hear more from him.

Mac - looking back, he was actually very "happy-go-lucky" at the start of the first Day, later got to a more analytical mode. This all happened with not so much activity. Pitch was one he suspected, ending with voting him. Seemed very convinced that Hui was "at most a Cobbler". I would not think a Wolf-Mac would make such clear statements, but then again, anything is possible.
On Day 2, he had reasonable points again. Overall, he seemed convinced about quite a few people being cobblerish at one point or another. Had some back-and-forth with Shasta that eventually ended with him accepting Shasta's clarification. Eventually went with voting Nilp out of his suspects, which I would still like to hear about.
In this light, perhaps the most incriminating part is that both his votes were in such a way that went "off the mainstream". Mac can definitely be highly individualistic, but it could also be a good cover not to get involved in anything incriminating. I am still wary of the way he sorta floats about.

Overall Nilp remains in my yellow zone for now, and I will definitely wait until when he reappears to hear more from him. Similarly, Mac remains in my orange zone.

I would like to still look back at the posts of people like Rikae and Pitchwife, who remain in my center-grey zone, or even Greenie, whom I'm overall getting good vibe about but perhaps should try to look freshly at. But somehow not sure if I will have time since this took so long... now to see if anyone posted...

EDIT: I see I'm x-ing with Mac and Rikae themselves. Let's see if I have time to read and respond now...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Mac, you might be even more annoyed to hear that you're basically the victim of a poorly-told joke.

I thought to myself, if these furballs infesting this once-peaceful village want to go after obvious Seer candidates, I'll give them one.

So I looked for the most oblique, but still somewhat defensible angle of attack against someone otherwise unsuspected. Let them think I dreamt of this villager and am trying desperately to make a case. You happened to be the one on the receiving end of it. I regret nothing, btw, except the fact that I set traps around my house last NIGHT, but no one showed up.

Why? Was I too obvious? Too oblique? Or, the most apparent reason, barking up the wrong tree? This seems the most likely explanation. So Mac, I basically take back what I said yesterDAY.

Now, I have a problem. Since I used up my supplies setting up those traps, my house is kinda unprotected toNIGHT. If I live to see tomorrow, then I'll have a more proper greeting for for any fanged home invaders, but I'm not sure if I'd last that long.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Eeh? Don't get me wrong, you look innocent to me, but I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean.

I feel like I'm confusing myself right now and don't have a clear picture. I'm seeing fangs all over Legate's last post and I can't even begin to wrap my mind around Nilp right now. I feel like I need to back off a bit and get a clear fresh look in a while.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

He latched on to the "if the wolves thought Lottie was the seer then why is Mac still alive" thing that Nog brought up (though Nilp says he thought of it on his own), and this was his reason for suspecting me (while Nog didn't take it that far). I thought the reason was bad and suspected him in turn.
Not the most solid of suspicions, and reflecting I might have gotten carried away by being annoyed by it, but it was not one bit random and I don't know how you got that impression.

Fair enough, especially since I just went over the same post of Nilp's. Not sure it proves anything in the bigger picture, but fair enough.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I have to echo Greenie here, this doesn't make sense.
-The votes for Kath were not unexpected, Greenie's at any rate was predictable.
-The general suspicion of Nogrod seemed to lessen at the time.
-If the wolves find it necessary to start a pre-emptive(!) bandwaggon to save a fellow, they will usually decide that instead it's time for that fellow to catch a bus. Especially with a large pack and on Day2.

Greenie voted for someone she suspected, but she suspected Nog as well and decided against it. I'm talking about how it felt subjectively at that point, when I thought Nog was fishy and suddenly people started turning away from it. The second point is no argument for anything, the third I would argue is pure assumption, since "usually" would exactly differ from pack to pack.
Anyway, all this is purely hypothetical, since now we know Nog was innocent and nobody was saving him.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sorry if it was unclear. I had posted about my suspicions of him earlier and at that point it looked like my top suspect wouldn't be on the table unless I acted rapidly.

Also fair enough. It was mostly that you were listing many things in your previous post(s), and you sure voiced suspicion of him, but there was no clear "I want to vote Nogrod". But very well.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Mac. Okay, what? But work calls, gh.

[Formendacil]

I'm lurking from work, so this will be short, but....

Isn't Nilp supposed to be LESS confusing after Day 1. This is Day 3. I didn't get a Seer vibe at all, false or not.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm about to go have dinner, but I just wanted to say:

Hui and Loslote,

THAT WAS EPIC

...what? Are you the cobbler perhaps?

Re: Brinn's helpful post about BG: ok I can see why she was thought the seer now but it's still weird to me. Form looks a little dubious as a result, but I'm hesitating to jump on it because Nog was on par with him. Unless they thought BG had dreamed of Form and was just jumping into conclusions about Nog protecting him?

I would also give credit to BG fairly arbitrarily naming Shasta as the ranger - it's quite a far-fetched conclusion to make as an ordo so I would understand if the wolves thought BG had inside information. Of course, she also named Nog as the beast hunter which was NOT true, and the wolves knew that was wrong too by the time they killed her. So in conclusion, I think this kill makes Shasta look more innocent than not.

Originally Posted by Brinn

And if you are a wolf, your packmates may have found you worth sacrificing for this reason (and especially if you are the NW).

What she said.

Originally Posted by Mac

Not much to say about the night kill. "Will I dream Dave" plus leaving out the seer in her gifted discussion... Yeah, maybe it's a too obvious hint, as Brinn said, but it would be near negligent of the wolves to discount it for that.

Given that I still can't follow the wolf logic on BG and I'm not the only one and here Mac goes soft defending how resonable it is... makes me suspicious of Mac. Are you offended that we think your kill pick was stupid?

Originally Posted by Mac

Lastly, while it's possible that Hui and Lottie made Brinn the medium for the entertainment value, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt (yes, I know, they're just ordos, too) and will give her a pass for toDay, not that I was really suspicious of her to begin with.

Why on earth would you give someone a pass just because two dead ordos decided to endorse her?

Originally Posted by Brinn

I took a look through Legate's posts since I said I would. His posting seems less frequent than last game, but I like the content of his posts, probably because I agree with a lot of it. I don't really buy into Nogrod's theory that Lottie died because the wolves thought she dreamed of an evil Legate. Sure it's possible, but I still find it more likely that they thought her a seer that dreamed of Hui. Her suspicion of Legate came late in the Day, and I think a Legatewolf would more likely risk another Day than immediately kill her as a possible seer.

Pitch's vote was the most bandwaggony of the Nog votes and looking through his posts, I'm not clear on the reasons for his vote and why he suspected him. Mac did make a good point that it was interesting he didn't consider voting Kath considering she was one of his top suspects yesterDay.

I did mention before that Formy appeared to be more cobblerish...but based on last Night's kill, I wonder if he's in fact the NW.

Agreeing with basically all of this. (Which isn't necessarily comforting? It's always creepy when someone else in ww thinks too similarly to you.) Anyway agreed that Pitch's bandwagony vote was weird. Doesn't make me think him any less of a cobbler, for one.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I would have expected something like Pitch, Kath, or Form, but Nog I thought was fairly solidly good. Hm. Makes me wonder how evil-driven that execution was.

I bet the lovely sofa I'm sitting on that there was at least one wolf in the nogwagon.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Form - honestly, with as much suspicion as he's been getting, the fact that he hasn't been executed yet speaks to him being saved. The traction seems to be there, but it dies off at the last second.

My thoughts EXACTLY. Also the last Night kill and him hiding behind stastics to make all his arguments feel very dubious to me.

Re: Greenie's post about Mac and Form: iiinteresting. A Mac-Form pack wouldn't really surprise me very much. I also agree with Greenie about Brinn's consistency scarcely being a point in favour (if not a point *against* her either.)

Originally Posted by Greenie

This looks a lot like hand-washing. I can’t believe I’m spelling this out, but if you don’t like all the action happening literally in the last 10 minutes, how about – vote sooner? It’s not like some force of nature we’re helpless against, and painting it as such is an easy way to take less responsibility for one’s vote. As in, cross-posting with half the village so you can later claim you had no idea your vote was part of a bandwagon instead of an individual vote with no consequence. This isn’t just Legate, either – I’m a bit worried about the last-minute voting and how easy it is to hide there. With votes more spread out and less cross-posting, people are forced to be more accountable for their votes as they’ll know what’s going on when they’re voting and how their vote impacts the overall situation.

Hear, hear! These accesible-for-most deadlines are lovely, but they do require a bit more coordination from the village. A thought: if you're an innocent with a strong suspicion, you should rather vote EARLIER because that's when you can affect who ends up as a chopping block contester. That's what I've been doing these two gmes mostly - alas not always with the best results. (Made me think of what Rikae said yesterDay about categorising ww players in terms of resilience, persuasiveness and perception - I'm afraid I would score fairly high on resilience and persuasiveness but not very high on perception... not really ideal except maybe for a cobbler...)

Originally Posted by Greenie

I actually thought the opposite – BG did cause controversy but towards the end of the Day I remember the consensus seeming more like “she wouldn’t do this if she was a wolf”. That Legate remembers it so differently is very interesting, and I now feel like I should check back and see which one of us is right! Admittedly I’m not sure if that’s a very fruitful line of inquiry.

My two cents is "she looked like a confused ordo and I thought the whole village agreed", which is probably why the kill baffles me.

Going to cross-post with everyone after my last...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'll start speaking more openly. I don't have a read on much of you, so I'll just go with my notes for now.

Mac - Like I said, sorry mate. Until last NIGHT though, you really were a top suspect, for different, less definable reasons.
Kath - That mix-up with the voting yesterDAY makes me believe she's a confused Ordo.
Form - I had written 'trust for now', but I now feel confused.
Legate - My other top suspect. Another idea I'll claim to have come up with independently, even if many others have posted about it: this post read like someone rehearsing an alibi in front of a mirror. Sorry for that analogy, but that's how I felt.
Brinn - I have 'throwaway vote was actually good' in there, but no explanation why. This has to be for DAY 1, though; her DAY 2 vote was anything but throwaway (4th--and 5th--vote for lynchee Nog)

I'm rereading the whole thread to see if I can gain new insight from anything.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Why on earth would you give someone a pass just because two dead ordos decided to endorse her?

Have you no reverence for those who passed?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

Have you no reverence for those who passed?

No.

Looking at yesterDay's votes, Pitch and Brinn's look the worst to me - they were the ones that cemented Nog's fate. I agree with whoever said Rikae and Legate probably didn't expect their votes to take off like that - unless Form and Kath are BOTH wolves, introducing a last minute wagon for an innocent who'd been widely suspected isn't the most likely wolf move. But Pitch and Brinn were the ones that wanted Nog dead rather than Kath or Form. Perhaps Kath and Form are both innocent too, but I really hope not (or we're even more misguided than I thought).

Nilp - there are so many things that could catch a wolf pack's attention. Like BG's seer comments. Or basically any arbitrary suspicion OR trust towards someone. Just because you weren't Night killed for weirdly suspecting Mac doesn't mean Mac is innocent - if he's a wolf, he has three fellow wolves who might have received even weirder suspicions.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Just because you weren't Night killed for weirdly suspecting Mac doesn't mean Mac is innocent - if he's a wolf, he has three fellow wolves who might have received even weirder suspicions.

Well, yes, of course. The only one who's completely innocent on my list of the living is me--and that's because I have no choice (had I been an Ordo I'd put myself one rung below). But Mac falls back to sixth or seventh most suspicious instead of first or second.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Isn't Nilp supposed to be LESS confusing after Day 1. This is Day 3. I didn't get a Seer vibe at all, false or not.

I hate to say it, but I totally agree with Form here. If people don't think Lottie looked seerish, I don't understand why Nilp expected anyone to think it of him. Also backing off a suspicion with "sorry, just kidding, as you were" - meh. I don't know.

[Thinlómien]

Not particularly worried about
Kath - I still think she seems more laid-back than wolf-Kath, and her not being too worried about her own life yesterDay (adding a new lynch candidate when she herself was on the lead) adds to the impression.
Nilp - the Boro of this game, but innocent version?
Shasta - I keep flipflopping about him but I think BG's death is a big point in favour of his innocence.

Hmmmm
Greenie and Legate - I find myself agreeing with both of them a lot, which makes me inclined to trust them, even though I'm not sure that's smart. I don't know what to think of either of their relation to Kath - both Greenie's strong suspicion that I don't necessarily agree with and Legate's defensiveness of Kath stand out to me as midlly weird.
Sally - mostly under my radar, but the generic vibe isn't too innocent.

Double hmmmmm
Mac - has started rubbing me the wrong way since his vote yesterDay. I don't really like anything he's said about yesterDay's lynch or last Night's kill.
Form - keeps getting not-lynched, hides behind statistics instead of expressing solid opinions, and was suspected by BG. Dodgy.
Pitchwife - continues to give cobbler vibes with his pseudo helpful posting and that Nog vote.
Rikae - got an innocent vibe on Day1, but since then they haven't done anything which I'd find reassuring. The nonchalance with which they started the nogwagon and (even if it's a reference to the last game) their glee about Brinn getting endorsed and therefore ordo!Nog getting lynched doesn't sit right with me. Like, they don't seem the least bit bummed that we lynched an ordo again.


edit: xed with Nilp and the cobbler

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Hi, village. I am your Beast Hunter for this edition.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hi, village. I am your Beast Hunter for this edition.

Egads! Still supposed to be working here!

I want to believe, and if no other Beast Hunter appears, I guess I default to believing. I like the timing of a reveal, because the Village NEEDS something to shake up soon, just from a numbers standpoint, so that helps me trust (because the status quo has looked pretty good for the Wolves). But... still, a crazy reveal is the most Nilp thing ever.

[Brinniel]

Nilp, if you are the Beast Hunter, why reveal now? You aren't in any immediate danger of getting lynched right now and it seems more beneficial for the Beast Hunter to stay hidden. After all, it could be quite the useful role but it doesn't do much good if the wolves kill you first (well, at least we still have our ranger).

So I am trying to decide if Nilp is telling the truth, or if he's a cobbler or wolf trying to out the real Beast Hunter..

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Formy

I want to believe, and if no other Beast Hunter appears, I guess I default to believing. I like the timing of a reveal, because the Village NEEDS something to shake up soon, just from a numbers standpoint, so that helps me trust (because the status quo has looked pretty good for the Wolves). But... still, a crazy reveal is the most Nilp thing ever.

If it's a false reveal, maybe the real Beast Hunter should stay quiet at least for now. Otherwise they would be falling into his trap.

I will give Nilp the benefit of the doubt for the time being, but I'm not completely convinced.

I also don't like Formy's reaction here.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Nilp, if you are the Beast Hunter, why reveal now>

1. I thought of doing this tomorrow, but a numbers post I was planning to write drove home the point that DAY 4 might be too late.
   • 8 villagers to 4 wolves now
   • If we fail to lynch a wolf now, and I or the ranger fail tomorrow, we go in with 6 to 4, and with a possible cobbler...
2. Even if we whittle down their numbers, a seer death would be disastrous. Having me as an obvious target might give them pause. If they ignore me and go for the Seer, well... I can still set my traps at NIGHT.
3. I'm the, ah, least useful Gifted. Or at least, my usefulness has a well-defined limit.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Nilp, if you are the Beast Hunter, why reveal now? You aren't in any immediate danger of getting lynched right now and it seems more beneficial for the Beast Hunter to stay hidden. After all, it could be quite the useful role but it doesn't do much good if the wolves kill you first (well, at least we still have our ranger).

At first sight it looks like a more complicated way of suicide, but it's actually quite brilliant. The wolves can't know whether he single-, double- or triple-bluffed about last Night, so in the worst case he'd be dead toMorrow, in the best case they'd have to use two Night kills on him to make sure, sacrificing one of their own in the process, and can't go after anybody else in the meantime.


If he's a fake-revealing wolf, on the other hand, he has a perfect explanation for his continued survival by claiming the wolves were reluctant to take the risk.

[Pitchwife]

Actually this from Mac earlier toDay

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Also, I know this is Day1 talk, but it only just occurred to me. There's been talk about the NW sacrificing themself. Just acting suspicious and getting lynched, however, is awfully inefficient. They could fake-gifted reveal and have an innocent lynched or a real gifted flushed out and then go down in infamy the next Day. It might already be too late for that at this point though.

makes me wonder whether Mac and Nilp aren't wolves together and blithely wolf-on-wolfed yesterDay.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Rikae - got an innocent vibe on Day1, but since then they haven't done anything which I'd find reassuring. The nonchalance with which they started the nogwagon and (even if it's a reference to the last game) their glee about Brinn getting endorsed and therefore ordo!Nog getting lynched doesn't sit right with me. Like, they don't seem the least bit bummed that we lynched an ordo again.

Or maybe I'm pleased the seer is still alive?

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hi, village. I am your Beast Hunter for this edition.

Ok, so what's your plan? Why are you revealing?

[Macalaure]

- could be the true beast hunter, except: why is he giving away which day he's protecting himself? It might be a trap for the wolves, but he would also be laying a trap for the ranger, who may be compelled to protect him in his off-nights. Then again, one way or another, their next kill will either be wasted or Nilp takes one down with him.

- could be the cobbler. Then again, the seer thing could have killed him if I actually had been a wolf, and making the wolves kill you is a terrible way to go for a cobbler.

- could be the night wolf stirring things up before going down, kind of what I said a while ago.

But I don't see any reason to not believe him at this point, actually. The only thing wolfNilp would gain is that he gets to stay alive for a while, since for the village, not voting for him is the only actual adjustment, and there'd still be 3 other wolves available for lynching. If he's bluffing, we'll get to him eventually.

[A Little Green]

RL sidenote - my stupid back is acting up again today so I won't be able to be around as much as I'd like for the rest of the Day. I wanted to read through Pitch and Lommy but that will have to wait Just quickly for now -

Originally Posted by Pitch

At first sight it looks like a more complicated way of suicide, but it's actually quite brilliant. The wolves can't know whether he single-, double- or triple-bluffed about last Night, so in the worst case he'd be dead toMorrow, in the best case they'd have to use two Night kills on him to make sure, sacrificing one of their own in the process, and can't go after anybody else in the meantime.

If he's a fake-revealing wolf, on the other hand, he has a perfect explanation for his continued survival by claiming the wolves were reluctant to take the risk.

I agree with the first scenario. The second would be an odd move from a Nilpwolf who isn't really under fire at the moment anyway. Like, what would be the point - revealing himself in order to try and out the actual Beast Hunter and, if successful, just end up with the first scenario? I'm good believing Nilp for now. If he's bluffing we'll know soon enough.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Actually this from Mac earlier toDay

makes me wonder whether Mac and Nilp aren't wolves together and blithely wolf-on-wolfed yesterDay.

This makes no sense. If Mac and Nilp were wolves together and Mac wanted to tell Nilp (or his pack in general) that a fake Gifted reveal would be a good idea, why on earth would he do it on the thread instead of in a PM at night?

There was a bunch of stuff from earlier on that I wanted to comment on, I'll try to get back to it soon!

[Boromir88]

Wanted to let everyone know I’m typing this from my phone because I just lost power in my neighborhood. Not sure when it will come back (hopefully soon because it’s 95 degrees today and means my AC is out now too :-/).

I’ll be able to use data and get on my phone to close down the day. And at least try to reveal the role of whoever’s lynched in a timely manner. If you don’t hear from me by 9pm GMT with an update on my power situation that’s the plan.

Or perhaps someone in the Dead thread can kindly close it down? :-(

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading. May start the voting early just for fun. Maybe.

[Macalaure]

Leaning good about:
Greenie - not seeing anything suspicious really, but my gut feeling doesn't agree
Brinn - feels innocent to me
Kath - I'm a bit back-and-forth with her, but good for now
Nilp - might be leading us astray big time, but if so, it will show eventually
Lommy - always looks innocent to me no matter her role, so I'm not putting too much stock in my feeling here

No idea:
Legate - still meaning to get to him
Sally - hasn't done anything to be suspicious, but hasn't done anything to be not suspicious either.
Rikae - huge question mark
Shasta - still doesn't feel right, but I can't put my finger on it

Leaning bad about:
Form - not-so-great votes both days, puts too much into the posts vs. mentions thing
Pitch - not-so-great votes both days, I felt better about him yesterday, not so much today.

Originally Posted by Greenie

This makes no sense. If Mac and Nilp were wolves together and Mac wanted to tell Nilp (or his pack in general) that a fake Gifted reveal would be a good idea, why on earth would he do it on the thread instead of in a PM at night?

I had about the same thing typed out when I saw this.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, well the one thing for sure is that if there is an actual BH, they should not reveal.

Otherwise... well, if Nilp is innocent, then at least this gives us is something toDay... and then depending on what happens after. Many possibilities...
I would at least hazard a guess that if nothing else, he's not the NW, because now he would be unlikely to die unless there was a counterclaim. So if he was a NW faking it, it would be probably more benefitial to say that he was something else. Even though, BH might be the best role to fake for a Wolf, actually, because unlike the others, he could make a believable case for why he wasn't Night-killed. But that again rules out the NW. Okay, but now I'm just rambling.

The only thing that still puzzles me is the accusation of Mac he has made; if Nilp's innocent, that was dangerous at the very least.

But all that being said, even if Nilp is a Wolf, I think the best course of events is to trust his claim now. If he gets killed, then it hopefully also kills one Wolf. If he is a Wolf and keeps staying alive up to the point when we are down to some very small village, then a real BH could always reveal.

Nilp - any other insights or comments you'd like to share, while you're at it? People, opinions, stuff?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Reading through the thread, I'm at... page 3. The painkillers might be numbing the effects of the caffeine as well. One thing that went into my decision matrix to reveal now is that I don't want to accidentally fall asleep and wake up lynched--because then you're definitely entering DAY 4 with all four lycans still alive.

I'll eat something and see if that shakes off the lethargy I'm feeling. If not, I'd probably have to vote early.

(Legate, sorry, but so far, you're it.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Can't decide how I feel about Mac. My thoughts on him are all through the lens of how he seems to be perceiving me, and it feels like he's just leaving himself room to have me as "someone he suspects", which is a very wolvish thing to do, but it's also possible I'm just biased.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Don't you dare, or I will vote for YOU.

Seriously, abstaining from voting is about the stupidest approach one can have to this game if innocent. The vote is the only weapon we have. Sure, it can misfire. But you should certainly NOT abstain if innocent, that just makes the wolves' (and the cobbler's) votes carry more weight. (Sally I understand because she's sick and unable to keep up, but no such excuses for anyone else.)

I was reading through yesterDay and this caught my eye. I agree with Lommy that choosing to abstain is about the most unhelpful thing for an innocent to do. I didn't really see the suspicion of Form yesterDay but this makes a lot more sense of that. He then goes on to say it would only be effective if the whole village chose to do it. I'm assuming he meant because then nobody at all would die so no Innocents could be lost, but of course it also means zero chance of catching a wolf, given they can only be lynched in the Day. So yeah, I can see where the uneasiness comes from.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

RL sidenote - my stupid back is acting up again

Heile heile segen...


While I mull over the Nilp situation, a thought about the Night kill. In her seer-hinting post, BG listed Formy and Nog as the most likely wolves, followed by Legate on third rank. We now know that Nog was innocent, and we don't know yet what Formy is, but it's startling that the first two Night kills were possibly seerish looking people who suspected Legate.



Speaking of Nog, I should address this:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Looking at yesterDay's votes, Pitch and Brinn's look the worst to me - they were the ones that cemented Nog's fate. I agree with whoever said Rikae and Legate probably didn't expect their votes to take off like that - unless Form and Kath are BOTH wolves, introducing a last minute wagon for an innocent who'd been widely suspected isn't the most likely wolf move. But Pitch and Brinn were the ones that wanted Nog dead rather than Kath or Form. Perhaps Kath and Form are both innocent too, but I really hope not (or we're even more misguided than I thought).

You agree with whoever that Rikae and Legate didn't expect Nog to gain further votes and in the same breath call him 'widely suspected'. Where is the logic in this, Doctor?[/SPOCK]
As for my vote, well - what do you do when one of your suspects (Formy) votes the other (Kath)? How do you determine which of the two you were wrong about? I didn't feel up to wrapping my head around the question at this (for me) late hour, so I looked for a third option. I had been suspicious of Nog earlier, mainly for his IMHO (pace Nog's ghost!) forced suspicion of Hui and (to me) unconvincing defense thereof, so there I went. I could have gone for Nilp, but didn't have a strong enough impression of him.