WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Boromir88]

If Kit's a lion I'll flay myself...

Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me

These are reasons a blind know-nothing (but well intentioned) person has to give...there's no other choice when you truly have no special knowledge. It's the same reasons Skip's vote, as much as I didn't agree with the read he got of Gil, looked innocent.

Lions have special knowledge, they can manipulate the lynch, use rivalries and houses against each other. There is far more scheming and reasons behind their voting (of course the best lions will hide their intentions well)...Point being, if Kit is a wolf, trying to get attention off of her mate Mac, she could have done a much better job than giving a flimsy reasoned vote to try to set up Enca as another choice.

I'm saying lions were fully involved in that Mac-Inzil showdown yesterday...

[Nogrod]

HAha. On specualting Lommy's vote yesterDay... she herself even said this

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Inzil is a better choice than Mac, but not really too keen on either.

[Boromir88]

Oh right...

*vanishes*

[Nogrod]

So was Lommy preparing the ground to vote Inzil to save her mate but then thought it too risky and decided to back off from the whole choice?


Looking back a few pages I found little worth referring, but maybe something.


Lottie looks pretty good pressing Mac into defence with some tough suspicion - and her post toDay was clear and reasonable. The two things combined make me think a whole lot better about her.

Lottie also suspects Mac and Inzil of lackluster suspicion - like a lion-on-lion suspicion... That is followed by a curious Mac suspecting Inzil post that isn't far from being exactly lackluster - and ending up with: “Defend yourself, sir!” + smilie.


Kitanna seems to try and ease pressure on Mac in a careful fashion while making a slip worthy of comparison with Mac's own slip...

It would be funny if we had a game where two lions gave themselves away with classical slips of tongue!


Lommy had been talking about people rushing to defend Kit from left and right the whole game even if she hadn't been suspected heavily at all. Answering my query about who those would have been she gave a list which is as follows: Mac, Cop, Encai, Nog, Rikae.

Now Mac was a lion - but Kit tried to run for Encai I myself had been suspecting for other reasons. And Lommy was hoping to vote for Kit or Encai, not willing to vote Mac. Very interesting mess indeed!


Vanishing too for a while...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lottie looks pretty good pressing Mac into defence with some tough suspicion - and her post toDay was clear and reasonable. The two things combined make me think a whole lot better about her.

Lottie also suspects Mac and Inzil of lackluster suspicion - like a lion-on-lion suspicion... That is followed by a curious Mac suspecting Inzil post that isn't far from being exactly lackluster - and ending up with: “Defend yourself, sir!” + smilie.

I feel fairly good about Lottie at this point.
That deal from Mac was weird, and a bit frustrating. I had already given reasons for my vote on skip, but he kept on about it.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Kitanna seems to try and ease pressure on Mac in a careful fashion while making a slip worthy of comparison with Mac's own slip...

It would be funny if we had a game where two lions gave themselves away with classical slips of tongue!

Kit has been a concern for me, mainly due to the safe votes on two Days. It would be a laugh if she was a Lion. Had I seen Mac's slip Day 1 in time I could have voted for him, but I would have also thought 'can it really be that easy?'

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Very interesting mess indeed!

Mess is the right word. I still think the bandwagon on me was an effort to get pressure off Mac. Eomer and Lottie were the first two votes for me, but I do think better of Lottie.

[Coppermirror]

I'm here; haven't read up on what's been going on toDay yet. Going to start by analysing Maclion on Days 1 and 2, then I'll look at toDay. I'll probably be here for the next 2 hours, the next 3 if things take longer than expected, and 4 if I'm an idiot who's going to stay up until 4AM.

[Thinlómien]

Maybe the wolves killed Volo to baffle us. I can't think of a reason why they'd go for him, because at least to me Volo didn't give any gifted vibes, and almost as little bearish vibes. Maybe Nogrod has a point though and the wolves thought Volo was a bear/lover because of his pro-bear attitude?

Our best lead toDay, however, is definitely not Volo but Mac. I'm personally quite impressed by the fact that he managed to convince half of the village (yours truly included) that he's the werebear. Since he was a wolf, though, we have a nice bunch of data to analyze to see who might be his fellows. I'll get to that at some point today.

Why is Kitanna again trying to steer the discussion to the lovers' motivations instead of those of the wolves' by lengthily analyzing Nerwen? This combined with the fact that Mac was one of the ones to side with her yesterDay looks very fishy to me.

And Boro has reappeared? Good.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But if there was someone who tried to save Mac (on top of Mac himself and now known innocent Volo), then that person is Encaitare. Her vote-placement looks pretty bad indeed.

Agreed. That combined with her non-committal posting doesn't really look too good to me.

Originally Posted by Boro

So she does the only thing she can do...try to argue Mac vs Inzil will lead us no where and we should drop it to look some place else.

Well I'm glad you guys didn't listen to me, because Mac vs Inzil did definitely lead somewhere. (I'm not entirely sure people should listen to me at all in this game, given that I managed to vote the seer on Day1. ) That said, I didn't honestly think Mac with his odd chaotic behavior would be a wolf, rather the werebear or an ordo, and lynching the werebear when all the wolves were still alive wasn't my choice number one. As I didn't find Inzil particularly suspicious either, what should I have done? When I voted, there were still quite a few people who hadn't voted yet, many of whom suspected for example Kitanna whom I found and still find very fishy. (And before we know her role, you can't say she would've been any worse a choice, unless you have more information than you should.)

Originally Posted by Boro

Point being, if Kit is a wolf, trying to get attention off of her mate Mac, she could have done a much better job than giving a flimsy reasoned vote to try to set up Enca as another choice.

Flimsy-reasoned? As far as I recall, quite many people were finding Enca suspicious, and she even got a couple of more votes.

Okay, so either Boro and Kit are lovers, or Borowolf is going a bit too far in latching onto Kit who he knows is innocent. This does not fit with my theory that Wilwa dreamt of innocent!Boro though. But seriously, I don't understand at all why Boro has suddenly decided to become Kitanna's knight in shining armour, again when really hasn't been that much suspicion against her. (Notable also that he attacks me, the person who has probably suspected Kitanna the most.)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Mac’s almost perfunctory suspicion of Inzil, on Day 1, has been commented on. He also softly suspects Lommy early in Day 1, in #38.

(Volo comment in #43 about “sign language.” Ordo trying to get attention away from the gifted? Noble, and successful, if so.)

Onto Mac again:

#70: Kit, Lommy and Inzil all lined up as slightly suspicious.

#96 puts Lommy back a bit on the suspicion list. Inzil and Kit at top with Boro.

#114 is (now) an obvious lion post, as he’s ‘feeling better’ about Gala (known innocent) and Eomer (I know I’m innocent, so this is only striking to me). A chummy post designed to get us two onside, which may well have worked because I thought Mac was probably innocent right up until the lynch. Gala voted for him, though, and paid for it that night.

Votes for Inzil, who has been my top suspect for two days. Now I am really unsure about this. Inzil had 1 vote and Skip had 5. Still plenty votes still to come and it was conceivable the inn would have preferred to push Inzil ahead of Skip at that stage. Why didn’t he vote for Wilwa, who was suspicious for her identical vote (for Skip)? Had he backed himself into a corner by already talking about his lion-buddy earlier? Or is Zil simply innocent?

Greenie and Nogrod look particularly good for their late votes for Mac, although they’re obviously clever and experienced enough to be pulling the wool over my eyes. It’s a long shot, though, surely…

Mac analyses Day 1’s votes in #197. Lots to dig into here, and everyone should probably have a look at it.

#211 – this interaction plus Wyth’s vote for Mac make Wyth seem innocent. It doesn’t sound planned (obviously I could be wrong here).

#270 is where Mac really sets himself up against Inzil.

#274 is another big suspicion list. Interesting reading.

---------

Inzil's interaction with Mac does seem a bit planned to me, and I suspect Inzil anyway for independent reasons; however, simplest answer is surely that Inzil is probably no lion.



I'm gonna go ahead and say that Wyth, Nog and Green are not lions either.

[Rikae]

So, no vote from Boro yesterDay?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

Kitanna seems to try and ease pressure on Mac in a careful fashion while making a slip worthy of comparison with Mac's own slip...

It would be funny if we had a game where two lions gave themselves away with classical slips of tongue!

That's basically what I'm thinking - could it be that easy?

I'd love to do some analysis of voting, as well as take a closer look at Kitanna. Also, Boro is acting weird.

[A Little Green]

Another thing: very curious about the Volo kill. He would have been an easy target for suspicion toDay with his vote that could have been interpreted as trying to save Mac. I agree with Nog or whoever it was who said that the theory of his possible "bear hint" doesn't make much sense; why on earth would the lions think the bear left a hint?

[Rikae]

Mac the demon monkey

Day One

#27 IC post, with some complaining about the lack of a “sense of urgency”.
Also:

Originally Posted by Mac

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

This struck me as weirdly wishy-washy at the time and now even more so.

#38 Asking for clarification on the Targ, then does his fake Targ reveal.

Originally Posted by Mac

Aside from this, while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it.

#40 reacts to Volo's joke, says no one but a cobbler would false reveal as a Targ who survived a kill.

#70 Infamous “numbers may be on your side” to skip.
Casts mild suspicion at Wilwa for her focus on the lovers, and this about Kitanna:

Originally Posted by Mac

This one seems fishy, too. "I don't like the lovers, but I don't want to do anything about it" - Subtly leading the inn towards looking for lovers more than looking for wolves, while keeping their own hands clean. Don't like it.

Wishy-washy suspicion on Lommy's “worth keeping in mind” (about bear-lion alliances):

Originally Posted by Mac

This would make me suspicious as well, for the same reasons as above. "The lovers are not as bad as I said before, but they're still very bad". The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?

At the time, I thought Lommy's post looked questionable myself, and wondered why Mac was suspecting and excusing it in one breath.
This in response to Inzil's “Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. “.

Originally Posted by Mac

This coming in response to the slightest early Day One suspicion? Woah, there.

That is kind of odd, seems a little like an exaggerated response.

#80 Responds to me about the bear, arguing against going after him.

#92 Continues defending his “going after the bear is fishy” stuff, this time to Wilwa.

#96 List post:

Originally Posted by Mac

Blissfully absent:
Eonwe
Green Lommyhands

New to the game / haven't played with before (as far as I'm aware), so vote-exempt for now:
Loslote, Wyth, Copper (not too concerned about either of them at this point)

Seem innocent at the moment:
Encai (feels good)
Wilwa (been disagreeing with her, but she sounds innocent)
Rikae (playful Rikae is ordo-Rikae, or so I'd like to think)
Volo (feels good, too)
Gil (same)

No clue either way, really:
Lommy Greenhands (mostly fine, but just too much bear-talk overall)
Nerwen (does seem alright, but only a fool trusts Nerwen)
Galadriel (no real feeling either way)
Eomer (same here)
Nogrod (hasn't said enough yet)
Sally (hasn't said much either)
Skip (said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him)

Somewhat fishy:
Inzil (seems nervous)
Kitanna (really just this one line I pointed out earlier, very flimsy suspicion)
Boro (something seems off, can't put my finger on it)

Very fishy:
nobody

Totally fishy:
nobody

A lot of gut feeling in this list, and nobody sticks out as truly deserving of a vote. Day One at its best.

Mostly a lot of filler and vague stuff. There could easily be a lion in the fishy category, or among all the “hasn't said enough/no feeling, feels good” stuff. I can't see him outright calling his suspicion for a fellow Lannister “very flimsy”, so I feel better about Kitanna.


#100 Defending himself to Galadriel, This:

Originally Posted by Mac

Originally Posted by Inzil
As I said, if you ignored me or thought I seemed innocent I would be more concerned.
On second thought, I think Inzil looks quite innocent. I will ignore him for now.

and “What's wrong with bears?” to Wilwa.
#114

Originally Posted by Mac

Feeling better about Eomer and Galadriel as well. She's sooo insistent that we can't get a wolf today (not that I'm optimistic by any stretch), I highly doubt a wolf would act this way, and lacking a cobbler, she's most likely innocent.

This comes after Eomer saying “You just made a big mistake, pal. “ and he gives no reason for “feeling better” about him, and just lumps him in with Gal.

#120 Complains mildly about Gal's vote for him.

#131 Defends “your side”. Claims not to like Skip wagon.

Originally Posted by Mac

Of my "top suspects" only Inzil has gotten a vote, but I don't feel remotely confident enough about him either to try and get a bandwaggon for him on the rails. Voting for Kitanna or Boro would seem like a throwaway at this point, too, not that I feel strongly about them either.

#138 Votes for Inzil. “Don't lynch me, ok.” With a smiley. This gives me the feeling at one or both of the other lions hasn't voted yet, or at least, is still around to argue. Gil, Lommy, Greenie, Nog, Volo and Eomer voted after Mac. Greenie and Nog voted for Mac late in the day, bringing him to 3 and 4 votes vs. the 5 Skip already had.
Lommy's vote for Wilwa both avoids the Skip wagon and avoids giving Mac his third vote. She could have given Inzil a third vote at that point, too. Not liking the options as an innocent is legit, but the placement makes it look somewhat suspect.

Day Two

#175
Gloats (Seer down in Night 2? Wow.)
“Who might Wilwa have dreamt of” - confident that won't help us? That trail kind of pointed to him, but as a bear.

Continues explaining “your side”.

Originally Posted by Mac

When I voted and left yesterDay, I thought my "don't lynch me" comment might've been a bit over the top... but you guys almost did kill me! Not cool.

Would fit nicely if Greenie or Nog is a lion!

#179
Points out Wilwa's list of people she feels good about as having a possible innocent dream. (Boro, me, Kit, Nerwen). Since people have been talking about him as the seer dream, a self-defense move, whatever else it may be.

“If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. “


This should have been a tip-off.

Claims the lovers wanted to kill someone who drew attention to their role.



Aaaand... I have to go and don't have time to finish this. I also wanted to look at other people's interactions with/words about Mac, but I definitely won't have time for that. People, let's not forget that the lion we already caught is probably our best lead.

There's a small chance I won't make it back before deadline, but I really don't want to vote this early.

[Thinlómien]

Mac and Lommy
Day1: ic banter. Lommy suspects Nerwen for piggybacking on Mac's point and throwing suspicion around. Mac thinks Lommy is a bit overeager to jump on Nerwen. Mac finds Lommy's ominous maths suspicious but think it would be bold for a wolf. Mac puts Lommy in the "no clue" category. Lommy is baffled by Mac being more chaotic than in previous games. When discussing potential vote candidates, Lommy doesn't find Mac particularly suspicious.
Day2: Mac considers Lommy's Day1 vote fishy. Lommy flip-flops on whether G55 was killed for looking like a seer, concludes that if yes, Mac and/or Volo are most likely behind it. Lommy files Mac under "no idea", think he's most likely an ordo or a lover. Lommy points out Mac omitted her from his suspicion list, he puts her in his unsure category. Lommy would prefer Inzil's lynch over Mac's, but has the feeling the Inzil-Mac war is not leading anywhere.
Conclusions: I have the feeling I might not be qualified to judge.

Mac and Boro
Day1: ic banter. Mac files Boro as "somewhat fishy".
Day2: Mac mentions the possibility of Boro being a seer-dreamed innocent. Mac considers Boro's Day1 vote fishy. Mac classifies Boro as fairly neutral.
Conclusions: Could be anything.

Mac and Inzil
Day1: mild suspicion against each other. Mac files Inzil as "somewhat fishy" and votes him (2nd vote).
Day2: Inzil says he would've voted Mac on Day1, had he seen his slip. Still he agrees with Rikae that killing Gal would've been risky for wolf-Mac. Mac considers Zil's Day1 vote fishy. Mac clarifes for Kit that he suspected Zil on Day1 because Zil was so quick to suspect him over something very minor. Zil understand Mac's vote on him better than Boro's. Mac keeps suspecting Inzil. Mac makes a case against Inzil. Mac lists Inzil as suspicious. Inzil refuses to make a case for his defense, saying he's justified his actions already. Inzil votes Mac, saying his role would shed light on others'.
Conclusions: Mac voted Inzil on both days. Inzil suspcted Mac on both days but only voted him on Day2. Some of the suspicion between them was bantery and wishy-washy ("we always suspect each other"), sometimes they brought up actual points against each other and were quite vehemently at each others' throats, which would be rather risky especially in a village with a bear. I think Inzil looks fairly good but we can't definitely exonerate him yet.

Mac and Encai
Day1: Mac discusses Encai's words on Inzil. He also considers her innocent.
Day2: Encai agrees with Mac about Wilwa's possible dreams. Mac considers Encai's Day1 vote neutral. Mac lists Encai as fairly neutral.
Conclusions: could be anything.

Mac and Eomer
Day1: Discuss the hunter together. Mac puts Eomer in the "no clue" category. Banter about the bear. Mac finishes the Day with feeling better about Eomer. Eomer points out that the "Mac-voters, G55 and Wyth, are also very curious..."
Day2: Mac considers Eomer's Day1 vote fishy. Eomer thinks Mac looks fairly innocent but says he's fine if the rest of the village wants to lynch him. Mac lists Eomer as suspicious.
Conclusions: A little fishy. Mac suddenly starting to suspect Eomer on Day2 after clearing him in the end of Day1 could either be a wolf in search of people to call guilty, or it could be a wolf seeing the possibility of getting lynched and trying to make a fellow look better by throwing suspicion at them. Also if Eomer and Mac were wolves together and Mac was in danger of lynching I could see Eomerwolf trying to get someone else lynched but underlining that he's ok with Mac getting lynched too. Then again he does it in such an in-your-face manner that he would be quite bold.

Mac and Kitanna
Day1: Mac mildly suspects Kit and files her as "somewhat fishy".
Day2: Mac mentions the possibility of Kit being a seer-dreamed innocent. Kitanna discusses the hunter discussion Mac took part in on Day1 but doesn't conclude whether he looks more guilty or not. Kitanna questions Mac's Day1 suspicions. Mac considers Kitanna's Day1 vote innocentish. Kitanna thinks Mac looks fairly innocent except for his relation to Wilwa. Kitanna thinks that the Mac-voters from Day1 bear having a look at, and considers Mac himself fairly innocent unless he's the bear. Mac lists Kitanna as fairly innocent.
Conclusions: this doesn't really make me any less suspicious of Kitanna. There's a lot of flip-flopping back and forth and casual suspicion that wouldn't materialize into votes on both sides.

Mac and Rikae
Day1: lots of bear discussion and banter. Mac considers Rikae innocent.
Day2: Rikae discusses Mac and Wilwa's interactions in the light of Wilwa getting bear-killed. Doesn't really reach a conclusion. Mac mentions the possibility of Rikae being a seer-dreamed innocent. Rikae talks with Inzil about killing Galadriel being risky for wolf-Mac. She's wary of Mac, but mostly because he looks like a potential lover. Mac considers Rikae's Day1 vote innocentish. Rikae maintains that Mac probably isn't a wolf who thought G55 the seer. Rikae and Mac keep talking about the Day1 role discussion. Rikae summarizes that she's unsure about Mac, options seem to be innocent and bear. Mac lists Rikae as fairly innocent.
Conclusions: Nothing too incriminating, except from past experience I'm a little baffled why isn't Rikae toDay all "you wretched Mac fooled me and were a wolf all along" but rather just amused that he turned out to be a wolf. It's almost like she's not very surprised, which she ought to be if she thought he's an ordo or a lover. As for Mac's behavior towards her, I can see a wolf-Mac having good reasons to consider both wolf-Rikae and innocent-Rikae innocent, so that doesn't give us much.

Mac and Lottie
Day1: Lottie considers Mac fairly innocent. Mac is not too concerned about her.
Day2: Mac considers Lottie's Day1 vote neutral. Lottie puts Mac and Inzil as her top suspects and suggests they're in cahoots. Mac defends himself to Lottie. Lottie decides to vote Zil instead of Mac but maintains they're probably wolves together. Mac lists Lottie as fairly neutral.
Conclusions: Okay, so Lottie picking Zil instead of Mac when she needs to make a decision is slightly fishy, but I wonder if as a wolf she would decide to commit like 90% of her energy on Day2 to suspecting her fellow and an unknown for being in cahoots. Seems a little unlikely, as I maintain that it's more likely the wolves would not try to cast too much suspicion on each other in a village with a bear.

Mac and Nog
Day1: Nog is very confused by Mac's fake hunter reveal. Mac puts Nog in the "no clue" category. Nog gives Mac his fourth vote, although he cross posts with Greenie who gives the third vote.
Day2: Mac considers Nog's Day1 vote neutral. Nog considers it possible that wolf-Mac wanted to kill seer-looking G55, but thinks Volo is more likely the culprit. Mac lists Nog as fairly neutral. Mac argues that Nog's vote on him doesn't look lion-on-lion. Nog is not thrilled about the vote options (including Mac), but ends up giving him his fifth vote, indicating he thinks Mac is more likely to be the bear than a wolf.
Conclusions: In theory, Nog looks fairly good for being an active part of a Macwagon on both Days. Then again, he does possibly try to get someone else than Mac lynched on Day2 before he gives up, and I honestly have no idea what on earth is Mac saying when he's stating that Nog and Greenie's votes on him don't look wolf-on-wolf. Also saying like 2min before the DL that Mac is probably the bear would be a nice touch from a fellow wolf. I'm undecided.

Mac and Eönwe
Day1: Mac notes Eönwë's absence. Eönwë disagrees with Mac about the hunter, and says that Mac (along with a bunch of other people) has said stuff he disagrees with so he'll have a look at him the next Day.
Day2: Mac considers Eönwë's Day1 vote neutral. Mac lists Eönwë as fairly neutral. Eönwë lists Mac as "worrying" without clarifying why. Eönwë gives Mac his 6th vote, cross-posting with Nogrod though. Implies he'd be happy to see either of Zil or Mac to go.
Conclusion: I think Eönwë looks fairly good because of his suspicion of Mac that doesn't look too wolf-on-wolfy, although of course I can't be sure about him either.

Mac and Greenie
Day1: Mac notes her absence. Greenie agrees with me that Mac is oddly chaotic and points out his famous "on your side" slip. Gives Mac his third vote.
Day2: Mac considers Greenie's Day1 vote innocentish. Greenie doesn't think G55's death incriminates Mac, but finds him suspicious nevertheless. Mac lists Greenie as fairly innocent. Mac argues that Greenie's vote on him doesn't look lion-on-lion. Greenie finds Mac the most suspicious in the village and notes him as one of her preferred vote candidates. Mac tries to explain his slip to Greenie. Greenie almost prefers lynching Kit to lynching Mac, but decides to vote Mac after all.
Conclusions: Greenie looks very good for pointing out Mac's slip that one else had noticed after hours had passed. If she's a wolf, she's one of the most heartless bussers I've yet seen (which would be possible but I'd wonder why did she deliberately choose the strategy on already Day1).

Mac and Copper
Day1: Mac is not too concerned about Cop
Day2: Cop discusses Mac's fake reveal without reaching a conclusion. Says Mac and Nerwen are unlikely to be wolves together. Later finds him mildly suspicious and more confusing, files him under "slightly fishy". Mac lists Cop as fairly neutral.
Conclusion: Could be anything.

Mac and Wyth
Day1: Mac is not too concerned about Wyth. Wyth gives Mac his second vote because he's one of the two that stand out to him the most.
Day2: Mac considers Wyth's Day1 vote fishy. Mac says that it's possible but unlikely that Wyth-wolf would have considered himself seer-dreamed by G55. Mac finds Wyth suspiciously defensive. Wyth replies by pointing out it's the first time ever he's been suspected. In his defense to Lottie, Mac keeps saying his suspicion of Wyth was justified. Mac lists Wyth as suspicious but won't vote for him yet. Wyth changes his mind and says Mac looks fairly good but mentions he could still be the bear.
Conclusions: I could see a wolf-Mac and a newbie-wolf-Wyth interacting in this way, especially with Mac finding Wyth suspicious but not vote-worthy and Wyth flip-flopping on Mac once it comes to voting. Then again, all this could be the interaction of a wolf and an innocent.

Mac and Gil
Day1: Mac considers Gil innocent.
Day2: Mac considers Gil's Day1 vote neutral. Mac lists Gil as fairly innocent. Gil slightly hesitantly gives Mac his 3rd vote with lack of better options.
Conclusions: Gil's vote yesterDay makes him look quite innocent to me. Since he didn't have any real suspicions, he could've gone with anyone but he decided to go with Mac.

Mac and Sally
Day1: Mac puts Sally in the "no clue" category and notes on her silence.
Day2: Mac considers Sally's Day1 vote neutral. Mac lists Sally as fairly neutral.
Conclusions: Could be anything.

Summa summarum
possible packmates: Boro, Encai, Eomer, Kitanna, Rikae, Nog, Copper, Wyth, Sally
unlikely packmates: Inzil, Lottie, Eönwë, Greenie, Gil

edit: xed with everyone, sheesh, this took ages!

[A Little Green]

Ok, I took a quick look at
KITANNA
(Note: I haven't included all her posts, only bits that stood out to me on rereading.)

Day 1

Starts the Day with banter about how she, Encai and Sally are lions because they're all peasants. In her next post, argues against a Targaryen reveal (and does so again in a later post) and flip-flops in some length about the lovers, saying that she won't actively hunt them but would like to be rid of the one extra kill and thus won't mind if one of them gets killed. Says she's busy and might have to vote half-random. Gives Skip his second vote:

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

Day 2

Starts off by speculating on why the bear went for Wilwa. Says that she had not really thought that the lovers might ally themselves with either the village or the lions. Thinks Gal looked nice and helpful but can't think of why the lions targeted her unless it was because she was too helpful. Argues that it's important to also discuss the bear but repeats that she won't be actively hunting him. Agrees with Lommy on a statement on the bear very similar to her own from Day 1.
Finds both Nerwen and Lommy suspicious for an exchange on Day 1, says Mac's fake reveal means he's either guilty and trying to distract us or a crazy ordo. Part agrees, part disagrees with Volo's ”bear is a friendly neighborhood assassin” -post. Still more elaboration on the same lions/lovers -debate:

I think this is a very sensible breakdown. I think we can all agree no one wants the double kills at night, but at the same time the lovers could be an asset if they are hunting the lions too.
The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

Thinks Lottie's suspicion list is non-committal, can't find much fault with Sally's vote, questions Boro slightly. Speculates about Wilwa's dream:

I think within these five [Mac, Boro, Rikae, Kit, Nerwen] is Wilwa's dream. It's most probably one of the four she felt good about, but I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac. He accused Wilwa of steering the conversation toward hunter/lover talk instead of toward the lions. Then her mention above just doesn't sit right with me. It's not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it.

Thinks Encai looks buddy-buddy with Eomer, says Wilwa's dream was most likely one of the ones she felt good about, calls Inzil's vote ”easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting”, subtly casts suspicion on Lommy by saying it's interesting how her top two choices for lynching on Day 1 are both dead, though adds that much shouldn't really be read into it.

She then has a long-ish and, to my eye, very odd exchange with Eomer. I couldn't make out what they were even talking about; it looked like they both misunderstood something the other said and tried to clarify it.

After that is the infamous slip, if it is one:

Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions.

Doubts the lions would have purposefully gone after the hunter. Flip-flops about Mac:

Where Galadriel's death is concerned I see Mac as somewhat innocent. She voted for him, but it's possible the lions thought she was seer based on her comments about Wilwa. Or if they thought they were getting the hunter, as both Rikae and Zil say, Mac looks pretty good.
However, I feel somewhat uneasy about Mac where Wilwa is regarded. Their interactions about the lovers yesterday was odd. A lion trying to get rid of the competition before the lovers get them? Or a bear nervous that a lion had pegged them?

She then analyses of the Day 1 Mac-wagon:

A lot of attention has been paid to skip's bandwagon, so I'm not really going to add much, since nothing I could say will be new.

Rather, I'm interested in the Mac voters. We know now that skip is innocent, so it's not like the votes against Mac piled up to save him, so why did he get his own bandwagon? According to the timeline (as provided by the lynch candidate himself) Mac didn't receive a vote until after skip already had five.

She concludes her analysis with

I'd say that there was a lion in skip's wagon for sure, but I feel there was probably one in Mac's too.

That said
Zil - Based on vote placement for Skip and his general agreeable attitude thus far I'd say he's the likely lion in that wagon. He also gained three votes of his own and at his vote placement he had one vote and his vote gave skip 4, thus pushing skip far into the lead.
Wyth & Greenie - I haven't seen a lot from them to make a really informed decision, but based on placement I'd say lion. I'm in the dark about Greenie, but Wyth has said a few things that I noted as odd. He seemed overly defensive earlier today, but hasn't been around much since to continue to watch. Also he was skip leaning yesterday, but switched to Mac. Which is odd to me.

I'm leaning toward an innocent Nog based on his vote.

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.
Mac - The more I see from others the less likely I find it that Mac is a lion. But his responses about the lover discussion are odd.
Gil - His vote was very, very safe. His comments haven't been unreasonable and though he's garnered some suspicion, he's stayed pretty well under the radar.

Votes for Encai:

Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me

Explains her slip:

I mean. That she was chosen because she didn't specifically mention any lions in her posts. So they chose her as a no trace kill.

Edit: just a theory on why her since what she said didn't look too seerish to me, with the exception of her Wilwa defense

CONCLUSIONS?
Three things above all caught my eye on reading Kitanna.
1) She concentrates a lot on the bear/lovers, despite saying our first priority should be the lions.
2) She flip-flops on Mac a great deal. She "can't shake an uneasy feeling about him", but later on "finds it unlikely that he's a lion".
3) Her odd slip about Gal not mentioning any lions. It still puzzles me, and I didn't really understand her explanation of it, either. But the idea of two genuine wolf slips in the same village sounds a bit ludicrous, so I'm not sure what to make of that.

Also - why vote for Encai? Her previous post made it look like she suspected Inzil (and maybe also Wyth and myself) a deal more than Encai. At the time she voted, Inzil already had two votes but Encai had none (if I remember correctly that her vote was cross-posted with Rikae's). Which makes it really odd that she doesn't vote for Inzil.


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's novel, fixed typo

[A Little Green]

Two lions in the following bunch:
Eönwë - Still under my radar, although his yesterDay's vote does make him look more innocent than not. Unless, of course, Inzil is a lion too, in which case it doesn't tell us anything at all.
Inzil - I agree with Lommy that his and Mac's suspicion of each other is a bit extreme for lion-on-lion, but if Kit turns out to be a lion, I might change my mind and suspect him after all.
Kitanna - Suspicious (see previous post for details).
Encaitare - I think her response to Nog's argument against her toDay seemed genuine; not too alarmed otherwise, either.
Lommy - Still torn about her - she was really fishy on Day 1, then getting less and less so as the game progresses. Not my main suspect at the moment, but not comfortable with her, either.
Boro - Does someone pay him to make my brain hurt? What's all this cryptic *vanishes* -stuff? In a word: confusing.
Loslote - I like her argumentation, but what I mostly recall of her without closer reading is easy, likely noncontroversial votes on both days. Could go either way.
Wyth - Difficult to say; could be a lion-cub, could be a regular cub. Headache-material.
Eomer - Hmm. He's seemed innocentish to me this far, but his interactions with Mac do look slightly fishy.
Rikae - I still find her more innocent than not.
Copper - Still slightly suspicious of her for the same reasons as yesterDay - her reasons for voting Eomer yesterDay seemed a little like grasping at straws, and I got an uneasy feeling about her "Oh no, the seer is dead" -comment. Not top of my list toDay, though.
Nogrod - I still don't suspect him! What's wrong with me?
Gil-Galad - Haven't seen anything to alarm me this far, and his Mac-vote yesterDay made him seem more innocent than not.
Sally - Where is she?


EDIT: fixed typo again. "Suspicous" sounds like a brand of couscous.

[Coppermirror]

By the way, I'm still here, and still writing my analysis of Mac. Haven't even got to reading Day 3 properly yet. Oh hell, it's going to be daylight before I'm finished with this thing. And I still don't know who to vote for.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sally - Where is she?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but...she didn't vote yesterDay, did she? This is a bit concerning. I think Boro didn't vote either.

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish
Inzil
Lottie
Eönwë
Greenie
Gil
(see my macalysis, I'm giving them the benefit of doubt for the time being)

Not too worried about
Rikae - seems more innocent than not, there are some things against her but overall she's far from the top of my suspicion list.
Nogrod - there is the worrying possibility of Nog being a mastermind wolf, but my gut-feeling says no. Like I said before, he seems way more secretive as a wolf.
Copper - I always have hard time reading her because her posts are like 75% summary and 25% interpretation, but there's nothing that has really caught my attention yet.
Wyth - his interactions with Mac could go either way, and I have hard time reading him. He's in this category because other people are way more suspicious.
Sally - in serious threat of getting modfired... Where are you, Sallycakes? Anyway, I don't find it very productive to discuss her until she appears (or is modfired).

Worried about
Boro - really weird toDay, and his conviction of Kitanna's innocence in strange. Also he talks about yesterDay's voting like he knows Kitanna and Zil are innocent, which is slightly alarming.
Encai - my gut-feeling is against her, and her vote yesterDay isn't the least suspicious either to phrase it mildly.
Eomer - mostly because of his interactions with Mac, also he somehow manages to be under the radar while being quite controversial and I don't like that.
Kitanna - my top suspect atm. Consider her slip, her concentrating on the bear and the maiden fair and her interactions with Mac, plus the fact that people (including Mac) have defended her even though there hasn't been that much suspicion against her. Why I hesitate: it looks maybe even too obvious, (plus if Boro happens to be a wolf, I doubt she is.)

[satansaloser2005]

So many avatars changing* has made trying to read the thread very difficult.

I'm here and reading. Hopefully I can get through the Day and get a good grip on things.


*Well, that and all of the people I haven't played with in forever, but that part excites me.

[Thinlómien]

Where is everyone? I'm not liking this silence one bit. Makes me feel like the remaining wolves are probably safe and happily in hiding while the couple of us who have been around toDay are arguing in circles...

[A Little Green]

Need an early bed this time as I'm pretty much dead on my feet, so I'm voting now and likely not coming back toDay.

++ Kitanna

In brief: her slip, her emphasis on the lovers, her interactions with Mac, and to some extent her inconsistent voting yesterDay.

[Gil-Galad]

I am here and reading as much as I can when I get the chance, though it is another quiet day. I have a feeling it will boil down to another last minute vote-off like last day.

[Nogrod]

Scrolling through the thread while watching football I happened to see this from early yesterDay

Originally Posted by Eomer

So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.
......
Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.

An innocent might have made that kind of an error... but a wolf or a lover/Bear wouldn't - unless it was done on purpose trying to look like an innocent?

Somehow my feeling is, that would be a bit far-fetched, but what do you think? Would Eomer pull that kind of a trick?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Inzil's interaction with Mac does seem a bit planned to me, and I suspect Inzil anyway for independent reasons; however, simplest answer is surely that Inzil is probably no lion.

I don't know if Mac planned any of that interaction with me, but I may have put the idea in his head with my early, not serious, suspicion of him. Like I've said, we've always seemed to have suspected one another in the past, and I was just touching on that. He might have seen that as an opportunity to tie me to him in the event he was discovered.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I'm gonna go ahead and say that Wyth, Nog and Green are not lions either.

I'm fairly comfortable with Wyth and Greenie, but I'm wary of Nog just on general principles, though he looks rather clean thus far.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Also, Boro is acting weird.

No argument there. But Lion-weird? That's unlikely.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

So many avatars changing* has made trying to read the thread very difficult.

Yes to that too. It was already hard enough remembering who all was playing...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Where is everyone? I'm not liking this silence one bit. Makes me feel like the remaining wolves are probably safe and happily in hiding while the couple of us who have been around toDay are arguing in circles...

My feeling is that there's a loud Lion and a quiet one. There's several I've seen entirely too little of.

x/d with Greenie, Gil, and Nog

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Scrolling through the thread while watching football I happened to see this from early yesterDayAn innocent might have made that kind of an error... but a wolf or a lover/Bear wouldn't - unless it was done on purpose trying to look like an innocent?

Somehow my feeling is, that would be a bit far-fetched, but what do you think? Would Eomer pull that kind of a trick?

Yes, I forgot about that. Personally I think it would be quite a dishonest trick to pull as a wolf, but Eomer's playing style is not the most nicey-nice or lawful and he does tend to think outside the box. Still, this makes me a little less suspicious of him. (Although maybe a wolf lost in his won fabrications could genuinely make such a mistake too, who knows.) /end lommy-flipflop

[Coppermirror]

Interactions with Maclion on Day 1

#27 - banters with Lommy and Boro. Likes Wilwa and G55, and is slightly suspicious of Inzil for lack of substance, but tempers that with saying Enca at least found it useful. This could be either a subtle lionish way of throwing suspicion on an innocent Inzil or a mild bit of lion-on-lion.
#38 - fake Targaryen reveal post. "while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it. So.. hmmmm..." Another hedged suspicion.
#41 - Eomer agrees with Mac that the Targaryen would be crazy to reveal that early. Not very relevant-looking.
#51 - Inzil to Mac: "Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. Then again, it might be more worrisome if you didn't fire a shot or two my way Day 1." Bantery on Inzil's side, and/or an overreaction to what isn't intense scrutiny. But I take it there's some Mac vs Inzil history there. It's hard to judge this. And he just rolls his eyes at Mac's Targaryen-declaration.
#52 - Boro glares at Mac, bantery. Doesn't look relevant.
#70 - Mac's "The numbers may be on your side" lionish slip response to Skip. Thinks Kitanna's statement about the lovers is suspicious. Points out Lommy's bolded italicised statement and finds it suspicious, but wonders "The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?". Well, he knows the answer to that one, whatever it is. The reasoning could be either that she is and he wants to take the heat off her, or that he knows she isn't.
#77 - a joking vote for Mac from Rikae, where she suggests he's a bear and winks. Jokes may just be jokes, but this still makes me wonder if she's got some special knowledge about lions or bears in this game. A later post (#86) suggests that a jokey Rikae usually means an innocent Rikae, but Maclion was the one who said it.
#80 - Mac responds to Rikae. Sighs and uses many a smiley re the joke vote. I don't think there's anything to learn from this post though.
#82 - Lottie's suspicion list. Of Mac, says "Strikes me as being fairly genuine in his tone. Seems to me to be more innocent than not so far".
#86 - Nog is the first person to point out that Mac's Targaryen fake reveal looks suspicious, although he can't see why anyone would want to do it. That would be a risky time for a Nog lion to point out a thing like that.
#96 - Mac's Day 1 suspicions list. The innocents in his list are all noted as people he feels good about or is not particularly concerned about or can't make anything of. On his fishy list are Inzil, Kitanna, and Boro.
#100 - changes his mind about Inzil, now says he looks innocent. Said jokingly.
#101 - Eomer's joking response to Mac's bear gag in the previous post. Can't really guess anything from this.
#105 - Lommy is baffled by Mac's apparently uncharacteristic chaotic behaviour.
#114 - Mac's joking response to Eomer. And says he's feeling better about Eomer and G55. Both of them had been on his no clue list earlier.
#123 - Rikae questions G55 the innocent's vote for Maclion. But her reasoning is sound, so it doesn't look either suspicious or non-suspicious.
#124 - Greenie points out some odd conflicting behaviour from Mac, and also points out the "your side" slip. This is makes Greenie look pretty good. I can't imagine a lion would want to point that out. He already had one vote and there were many votes left to be cast, albeit that Skip the innocent had already surged ahead with 4 votes by then. At #137 she pushes Mac to explain himself in response to his "Yikes, that was poorly worded by me" re #124. And she ends up voting Mac at #159. If she's a lion she was playing an incredibly bold game of lion-on-lion.
#130 - Nog finds the "your side" quote about Mac that Greenie pointed out to be interesting.
#131 - Mac notes that out of his top suspects the only one with a vote is Inzil, but that he doesn't feel "remotely confident enough about him either to try and get a bandwaggon for him on the rails". Says Kitanna or Boro would be a throwaway too, hedged with a "not that I feel strongly about them either".
#133 - Eonwe disagrees with Mac about how easy a surviving hunter's identity will be to establish. Doesn't seem relevant. Votes for Skip, but includes Mac on his list of four people who've said things he didn't like.
#135 - Wyth/Lote votes Mac. Chronologically it's the second vote for him. His post looks decent there. Doesn't mean he's not a lion for certain, but he's not looking bad.
#138 - Mac votes Inzil. It's the second vote for Inzil, made at a time where the largest votes were 5 for Skip and 2 for Mac. I don't think this clears Inzil. Mac himself at #131 said he didn't feel he could get an Inzil bandwagon rolling (implication that he'd like to), and he had said he disliked the Skipwagon, so at this point Inzil was his only vote choice.
#139 - Nog thinks that one but not both of G55 and Mac could be lions, and at that time would prefer to vote G55 of the two. It's hard to gauge Nog here.
#150 - Nog thinks that Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven's defence of Mac looks far fetched.
#152 - Greenie would prefer to vote Lommy or G55 over Mac because she wants to hear his response first. At #154 she would prefer Wilwa over Skip but Mac over Wilwa. Still looking pretty innocent there. Votes Mac at #159.
#157 - Nog wants to vote G55 for preference, but then Mac or Wilwa. At #161 he votes Mac. This doesn't make him look as good as it does Greenie, but it doesn't make him look bad.
#162 - Eomer is suspicious of the Mac voters (and names G55 and Wyth), and (jokingly?) suggests that maybe no lions were voting on that Day. With one minute to go, he votes Inzil at #166. At this point, Skip was on 5 votes, Mac on 4, and Inzil on 2.
Eomer's vote taking Inzil to 3. The only people yet to vote at that point were me and Nerwen, and people could have guessed neither were going to show up at that point, so Eomer's vote wasn't going to have much effect.

Interactions with Maclion on Day 2

#177 - Rikae thinks that if there's a bear hint in Wilwa's post, it's for Mac. But thinks that if he was a bear he wouldn't have been so against people looking for them, and that his "What's wrong with bears?" comment would be bold. She could be misdirecting here, but otherwise her comments about Mac look OK.
#179 - Mac looks at possible Wilwa dreams. Says that if she did dream of someone guilty, she hid it completely. Suggests that if she dreamed of an innocent it's one of: Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, Nerwen. Could be just a filler post, but he could have feared she'd be taken to have dreamed of him and tried misdirecting people. Or he could have been trying to make people think that a lion Boro, Rikae or Kitanna was dreamed innocent. Nerwen was not killed by lions.
#181 - Kitanna says of Mac, "I’m pretty sure his fake reveal means he’s guilty and trying to distract us or he’s a crazy ordo".
#183 - Rikae doesn't like Mac's dislike of talking about the lovers on Day 1, and implies that maybe he's the bear.
#184 - Inzil says he would have voted for Mac had he caught the "your side" slip.
#185 - Encaitaire agrees with Mac's point that Wilwa most likely dreamed of an innocent.
#186 - Kitanna: "I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac." and explains that his accusations of her steering the conversation towards the hunter/lovers is "not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it. "
#187 - Rikae agrees with Inzil that if the lions thought G55 was the hunter, Mac looks better for it. But that if they thought she was the seer he wouldn't.
#188 - Inzil thinks that "in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky" - too risky to kill G55 on Seer suspicion? Or, too risky for a lion/bear Mac to kill a hunter-G55?
#189 - Rikae clarifies and says she thinks it would be a good bet for someone other than Mac to kill a presumed hunter G55. OK, this makes sense. But...
#190 - Realises Inzil may have meant a Seer scenario, and clarifies that she doesn't think G55's comments about Mac looked Seerish and that it wouldn't be risky to kill her. Then says she's wary of Mac maybe being a lover, but wants to move on to lion catching.
#195 - Kitanna wonders why Mac was feeling better about Eomer in post #194.
#196: Eomer suggests that the Inn takes a chance on those who looked most suspicious on G55's list, Volo and Mac. Thinks she sounded most suspicious of Volo.
#197 - Mac's vote analysis of Day 1.
#200 - Rikae doesn't like Eomer's #196 plan, and thinks that G55's post looked just like run of the mill stuff.
#205 - Nog goes through possible suspicions on G55's list. Seems logical. If Nog's evil I can't see any hints to it there.
#206 - Mac analyses G55. Considers that might have been thought to have dreamed of Wyth or Volo but it's a stretch and "If the lions thought she was gifted, it must've simply been due to her being overly passionate". Also considers that G55's death might have been an attempt to frame him, but that Greenie or Nog would have been better choices for framing him. Thinks maybe she was a false-trail kill.

#209 - Wyth responds to Mac's suggestion that Wyth could be a lion, and suggests that Mac is deflecting suspicion onto someone who voted for him (Wyth).
#211 - Mac thinks Wyth is being very defensive, and says that now he does suspect him. This is making Wyth look on the innocent side more than not, though it's not conclusive.
#213 - Wyth explains this is the first time he's been accused. But is firm about Mac looking wolfy.
#226 - Kitanna thinks Mac looks somewhat innocent where G55 is concerned, and pretty good if the lions thought she was the hunter. But she's uneasy about his Wilwa interactions on lion/bear grounds. Hard to read her here. Says "And the defensiveness continues." about Wyth's post.
#238 - Lottie thinks that if Maclion is a Maclion, Inzil is likely to be one of his packmates, but perhaps not so much vice versa. This post looks sensible. However, she seems to have missed Mac at #131 saying "While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all" which may have meant that Mac couldn't vote Skip. It was after Mac said this that Mac got his second vote (from Wyth)...and Skip got his 5th vote (from Eönwë). Lottie's post here might be innocent, but it might have been a lionish way of throwing suspicion on Inzil should Mac be killed.
#255 - Kitanna speculates about Mac voters.

Oookay, I'm going to have to go faster here.

#245 - Mac unhappy with Lottie not being happy about his reaction to Wyth. Also tries to explain his Inzil vote, and gets into a discussion with Lottie about that. Her reasoning looks okay there.
#262 - Eomer says "Mac seems innocent-ish to me (still)". Votes Inzil, leaves. I would say that if Eomer is a lion, Inzil is not. Still not feeling good about Eomer.
#265 - Lottie is saying now, contrary to what she said earlier, that if Inzil is a wolf, Mac should be looked at. If Inzil were to get lynched and turned out to be a wolf, I think Lottie would be looking non-liony. At first glance her comment looks good, but on a closer look, that could have been a backhanded way of her trying to say that Mac should not be looked at if Inzil turns out to not be a wolf.
#266 - Rikae's list post. Of Mac says "A bear! A bear! Seriously, though, I'm unsure about him."...which doesn't say a lot for either her guilt or innocence.
#269 - Lommy's list post. Says she can't read this new Mac.
#274 - Mac's list post. He's suspicious of Inzil and Wyth, and now also of Eomer. "Just going along with other people's suspicions here, I know, but he has been playing it safe." he says. Now...I do suspect Eomer, but right now I don't see a reason for Mac to suddenly suspect him there if Eomer is a lion. This makes me feel a little better about Eomer.

Both Rikae and Kitanna vote for Enca. #292 - Wyth now feeling okay about Mac? And...agh, okay, I'm too tired. I'm just going to have to stop the proper analysis here and just go on to the votes.

Nerwen's vote #1 for Mac looks great, but she's dead. Zil's second vote for Mac doesn't necessarily mean much on its own, since if guilty he may be too far locked into an argument with Mac. However it is interesting that Mac only gave his vote when Inzil already had 4 votes. Greenie and Nog are instrumental in bringing Mac up to 5 votes, equal with Inzil. Eönwë breaks the tie in favour of Mac being lynched. Those three are looking good, but I still wouldn't be incredibly surprised if one of them was a bold, clever lion.

Current suspicions list:

????: Enca, Kitanna, Sally, Gil
Medium fishy: Eomer, Lottie
Slightly fishy: Rikae, Inzil, Boro, Lommy
Neutral: Wyth/Lote, Nog, Eonwe
Looking good: Greenie

I'm going to take a look at Day 3 now and then take another look at Day 2's votes.

[Nogrod]

Doing my first list then.

Very probably innocent:

Eönwë - house Royce (because of the voting: deciding to finally lynch Maclion)
A Little Green - house Reed (because of the voting on both Days & general reasonableness)


Leaning towards innocence:

Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin (because of pressing Maclion and basically building a case againt him - too serious-looking to be lion-onlion + speaks sense)
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos (because of vote D2)


It's complicated...

Inziladun - house Tully (I have been suspecting him especially earlier but somehow things just don't seem to add up with Mac's role known)
Kitanna - illiterate peasant (Have been suspecting from D2 onwards and probably my strongest suspicion right now - but like Greenie said: "could it be this easy?")
Encaitare - random peasant (Made a good answer to my question on her vote yesterDay but that diesn't clear other issues)
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon (Spends first evening just hanging around and sending tallies... votes late on both Days but never takes sides between the top-candidates but ducks away...)
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark (that error - not knowing which baddie-side killed the seer - bothers me to no end: absolutely innocent or a double-bluff? I can see why some suspect him otherwise but...)


Sadly, no idea:

Boromir88 - house Bolton
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit x
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nogrod/Lommy, I absolutely love that you think I could have planned a deliberate error like that. I'll remember the trick if I'm ever a baddie again.

But trying to be as objective as possible (and I won't be pushing this point after this post, don't worry) I agree with you that no villain would have gotten so mixed up as I did. That's as strong an argument for my innocence as I think you're likely to get in a WW game.

Ok, now to look at some under-the-radar types. I am focusing way too much on the loudmouths so far.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

My main question now is whether the lions decided to sacrifice Mac on Night 2/Day2. They can't have been happy with his being in the spotlight on Day 1.

It's down to Day 1 voting why I think Nog and Green (and Wyth) are innocent. Nog and Green stick with their vote on Day 2 (Wyth changes to Inzil) and it's Inzil, Gil and Eonwe who jump onto Mac.

Getting in while the going's good, perhaps?

[Inziladun]

My internet is randomly going out, for no obvious reason.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Somehow my feeling is, that would be a bit far-fetched, but what do you think? Would Eomer pull that kind of a trick?

It's not impossible, but I think that from an Eomer-Lion is unlikely. At any rate, he's seemed consistent and thoughtful. Not really an evil vibe there.

Of the voters yesterDay, I'm interested in the ones who avoided choosing sides between me and Mac: Coppermirror, Kit, Rikae, and Lommy. My logic says that Mac's mates would not have both voted the same way. And would both want to be in on a bandwagon that would draw scrutiny, whether mine or Mac's?

[WythDryden]

No idea:
Eönwe
A Little Green - She has placed herself in a very good position.
Coppermirror - Pretty good recent analysis at #385
Nogrod - Still strikingly seem as being innocent, though if there is anyone that I worry about having the mastermindedness to pull that off it would be him
Loslote - Feeling pretty good here. Seemed to stick out a little on D1, but since then has seemed pretty reasonable and innocent to me.
Gil-Galad
satansaloser2005 - Still not enough info to go on.


Maybe an idea:

Encaitare - Has been too busy to post, but that doesn't imply guilt OR innocence
Thinlómien - Has been pretty reasonable for the most part, but I get whiffs of shiftiness that I can't exactly put my finger on.
Boromir88 - Still coming off as quite cryptic. Could be IRL getting in the way, but seems to delight a bit in being more confusing than helpful. Maybe that's just a misread by me though.
Rikae - Seeming more ok, but unsure.
Eomer - Maybe the most up in the air as any of them. Good for now though.
Inziladun - With Mac's role known, he comes off looking much better. Though this past history with each other they bring up almost comes off as a little forced to me. But the amount of attention that continued here when it could've been just as effective in fewer posts has me leaning towards non-lion.

Squinty-eyed:
Kitanna - For the points made before, as well as the voting. Also, in Mac's list in #274, of the 4 people Mac says he is most comfortable with, I think Kitanna is the one he'd slip in there, I'm feeling pretty good about the others still. Maybe things are leading too obviously in her direction, but my head is spinning still, and she seems the most probable. Also her post in #226 siding with Mac about my defensiveness doesn't sit too well with me either.


I definitely feel like at least one of the lion's has been being pretty quiet. There's enough people here flying under the radar that are in a safe position merely because they haven't posted much at all. And because there's enough of that, there is a safety in numbers that they won't get chosen as it's more likely to be a random chance of getting them, rather than a calculated lynching. Good strategy on their part, but it makes me nervous.

[Inziladun]

And...internet going out again!

I hate to sound the paranoia chant, but was it planned to get me lynched yesterDay? Or was it an effort made when it became clear that Mac was still on people's minds? That unanswerable question for me colors how the non-bandwagon votes should be considered.

I'll have to go cut grass in the not-too-distant future, though I've got a little time left. I may have to step it up even more while I've got a connection.

x/d with Wyth

[Nogrod]

Unless another and more promising scenario turns out I'm probably ready to suggest we lynch Kitanna toDay. That is both because I think she might be our best shot, but also to avoid the situation where we need to mull over the same question toMorrow.


What comes to possible lion-on-lion votes there are I think reasons which speak both for and against it in this particular game.

Now the fact that the seer is gone would surely add the temptation of lion-on-lions as without a deus ex machina all we can now rely on is trust.

Then again the game is big and with the bear around doing some killing as well I'd think it a bit reckless & foolish of the lions to willingly give up one of their own numbers. Which, now as I think about it, sounds like a more substantial point than the above about there not being seer anymore.

All that doesn't mean the lions would not suspect other lions when it is relatively safe (or even vote if it is "relatively safe"), but in this situation I wouldn't think voting to kill one of their own would be a good move on their behalf.

Originally Posted by Eomer

But trying to be as objective as possible (and I won't be pushing this point after this post, don't worry) I agree with you that no villain would have gotten so mixed up as I did. That's as strong an argument for my innocence as I think you're likely to get in a WW game.

I kind of like this reaction to our musings that I'm probably thinking Eomer more innocent than not - at least for the time being...


EDIT: X'd with Wyth & Zil

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Of the voters yesterDay, I'm interested in the ones who avoided choosing sides between me and Mac: Coppermirror, Kit, Rikae, and Lommy. My logic says that Mac's mates would not have both voted the same way. And would both want to be in on a bandwagon that would draw scrutiny, whether mine or Mac's?

Funny you should say that since it's been precisely us who didn't join a bandwagon that have drawn scrutiny toDay...

Also, I never like the argument that "one of the wolves probably joined the bandwagon and the other didn't" because while it may make mathematical sense, the wolves are not some programmed evil guys but individual players who make their own decisions based on their personality and whims.


edit: xed with Noggels

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Unless another and more promising scenario turns out I'm probably ready to suggest we lynch Kitanna toDay. That is both because I think she might be our best shot, but also to avoid the situation where we need to mull over the same question toMorrow.

I wanted to give Kit the benefit of the doubt, as she seemed busy in RL, but doing that with Mac turned out a bad idea. I was, and have been, leery of her safe-looking votes two Days straight. Can it be that easy? It was with Mac, but will lightning strike twice?

At this point I think Eomer an unlikely Lion. Same for Sally, who I would expect to be a lot more active as a baddie. And where is Steve?
If we had a Cobbler at this point, I would be tempted to say it's Boro. He really is being opaque, but I wouldn't think a Lion would want to do anything to draw such attention.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also, I never like the argument that "one of the wolves probably joined the bandwagon and the other didn't" because while it may make mathematical sense, the wolves are not some programmed evil guys but individual players who make their own decisions based on their personality and whims.

That's true, but trying to guess motives from actions is all we can do. At some point you have to say "x is likely, y not so much".

[Encaitare]

Okay. I'm going to make a quick list, and then most likely will have to vote shortly thereafter.

Leaning toward innocent:
- Greenie
- Wyth
- Nogrod
- Rikae

Not sure:
- Coppermirror
- Lommy
- Loslote
- Gil-Galad
- Satansaloser2005
- Eomer

Suspicious:
- Inzil (though rather less so than before)
- Boro (he's been very quiet and mysterious, which I think is unusual for him)
- Eonwe (now that I'm less suspicious of his fellow Skip-voter Inzil, I'm more suspicious of him)
- Kitanna (for the same reason as Eonwe, though others have raised some good points about her, so I'm more suspicious of her than him)

[Coppermirror]

Possible votes.

Eomer:
In favour of voting him: General feel of his playing style in this game. Day 1 suspicion of Mac voters.
Mixed points: Suggests on Day 2 that Volo and Mac be looked at, but prefers Volo. Says Mac looks innocent, and leaves. Voted Inzil first on Day 2, might have been to take the heat off Mac.
Against voting him: Mac's Day 3 suspicion of him, bumping him up to his most suspected category, albeit in a lacklustre way. Could have been misdirection from Mac. His posts look slightly better toDay.

Lottie:
In favour of voting her: Positive about Mac on Day 1. At #238 and #235, it looks to me as if maybe she's trying to put suspicion on Inzil if Mac is guilty and none on Mac if Inzil is guilty.
Mixed points: Her Day 1 vote for Skip could easily have been opportunistic (or not). Second Inzil vote, might have been to take the heat off Mac.
Against voting her: Her reasoning at #245 and on Day 3 looks pretty good.

Lommy:
In favour of voting her: Her Day 2 Kitanna vote that couldn't really have led to a lynch - Boro's point at #355 that Lommy couldn't have voted Zil at that point due to statements she made earlier.
Mixed points: Day 1 panicking about double night kills while only wanting to focus on wolves.
#48 oddly bolded and italicised statement about vote conspiracies. Several times says she's confused by Mac and can't read him.
Against voting her: #360 Nog's point that she could easily have made a less controversial vote but didn't.

A lot of people have mentioned Kitanna, including people I'm tending to think are more likely innocent than not, and I'm not entirely following why. So I'm going to take a look at people's posts more closely.

If I don't see anything all that suspicious there, I think I may vote Lottie.

[Loslote]

Quick list of impressions:

Probably innocent:
Eonwe: His vote was pretty decisive yesterDay, and unless he was choosing between two fellow lions (Mac and Zil) I don't think a [b]Lionwe[b] would have voted the way he did.
Eomer: He's seemed solid throughout the game, and some of the things he's done and said would be extremely unlikely coming from a lion.
Greenie: Her voting has looked pretty good, especially yesterDay, and her posts have sounded pretty genuine.
Nog: He's looked pretty genuine this game, and his votes have been placed such that it looks unlikely that he's a lion.


Maybe innocent:
Zil: I said yesterDay that, if Mac were a lion, Zil probably was too, but I've gotten a whole lot less confident in that as the Day goes on. My theory about Mac's Day 1 vote isn't exactly water-proof, and Zil's posts toDay have been a lot more like what I'm used to seeing from his innocent self than from his evil self.
Gil: I haven't gotten enough of a read off of him to put him firmly in the innocent category, but I haven't seen anything suspicious, either.
Enca: I don't know her playing style very well, but I don't think she's been too suspicious thus far.
Wythy D.: Seems pretty innocent so far, but is doing remarkably well for a first time player - could he be getting pointers from his packmates at Night? That's not exactly grounds for suspicion, though, so I'll leave him in this category for now.

Could go one way or the other:
Cop: Something strikes me as off about Cop, but I haven't gotten a good enough read yet to say whether or not it merits real suspicion. I'll try to take a closer look later, but I probably won't have time toDay.
Sally: Could be anything at this point, and I would not know it.
Boro: Same as Sally.

Maybe not so innocent:
Lommy: She's been pretty cautious and quiet this game. Her votes have been a little fishy, too. I'd keep an eye on her.
Rikae: She and Kit have been staying out of the main current of the game for the most part. While that could be the mark of innocents keeping clear of what they think is a bandwagon on an innocent, it could also be a mark of a lion either a) staying out of what they know is a bandwagon on an innocent or b) staying out of a bandwagon on their packmate. However, I don't think both Rikae and Kit are wolves - I doubt, if they were packmates, they'd both keep out of the bandwagons - but I would not be surprised if one of them were.
Kit: See above.

I think that's everyone. This took me longer than I expected.

EDIT: xed since Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Funny you should say that since it's been precisely us who didn't join a bandwagon that have drawn scrutiny toDay...

Do I read some contempt here?

Talking of wagons then a bit.

YesterDay got off with a mini ZilWagon (2 votes by Eomer & Lottie).

Then MacLion got a vote (from known innocent Nerwen).

It was followed by a mini EncaiWagon (2 votes by Rikae & Kitanna).

Then in close succession and some cross-voting we had two votes for both Zil (Wyth & Encai) and MacLion (Zil & Gil).

After Mac understandably voted for Zil, Greenie, Myself and Eönwë lynched MacLion.


So people did vote kind of in pairs!

Only people who didn't were Copper (the very first vote of the Day to Eomer) and one of tha last votes by Lommy (to Kitanna).

[Boromir88]

In a hurry not much time...

++Lommy

[Gil-Galad]

As I said earlier, another quiet day. Only one that really stands out too me is Lommy. One of my earlier suspicions from Day 1

++Lommy