WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't mean to imply that quiet players can't be logical, but doesn't what I quoted from you up there suggest that there are at least two seasoned loud ones in the pack?

That is option 1. Basically the options, as I see it, are two: Either we have a pack composed fully of quiet ones, and then the kills are indeed rather of the "simple" sort, or then we have a pack with some truly seasoned players as you say, and then, who knows. But in any case, at least after looking at LRH and BG, they have rather interesting way of voting, particularly the former, like I said. But that's not all yet, I have to think about it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Actually it would be very convenient for a wolf to frame an innocent like that, and I wouldn't put it past Zil. He's been under a lot of suspicion and knew he's probably going down sooner or later.

That's another look at the situation.

Hmm. Basically the point is that we need to lynch a Wolf. I think that will at least make us determine a bit what kind of logic the WWs were using during the kills etc. That way, it would be good to lynch e.g. Inzil or Nessa, but again, maybe that's exactly what the WWs want us to do. And that's not to say, if for example Zil is a Cobbler...

[Macalaure]

Would like to skip for now
Nessa
Inzil
Skip

I don't think so
Aganzir (only one who's really looking innocent to me at the moment)
Greenie (innocent feeling, too)

No idea
e_d
Mänwe

Not unthinkable
Shasta
Wilwa
Rikae
BG
Cailín

Possible
Eomer (always have a hard time figuring him out. There's no question about him being a shrewd and logical wolf, though)
Legate (I suddenly have a bad feeling and I'm not sure why)

Very possible
Pitch
Boro
(as I said before)

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

The main point in this game this far is, with "leader" and "followers", you need to have such a "leader" that he/she approves of the kills which have been made. That really makes it a lot more difficult to figure it out with some quick and simple scheme. There are several people I cannot imagine doing it - unless it is just the reason why they are doing it. That all comes down to what I have said a few posts before, once we could lynch one Wolf, it would shed some light on the way they might have been planning this to be.

[A Little Green]

That is option 1. Basically the options, as I see it, are two: Either we have a pack composed fully of quiet ones, and then the kills are indeed rather of the "simple" sort, or then we have a pack with some truly seasoned players as you say, and then, who knows. But in any case, at least after looking at LRH and BG, they have rather interesting way of voting, particularly the former, like I said. But that's not all yet, I have to think about it.

I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

ALMOST COMFORTABLE WITH
Macalaure - Nothing alarming this far, seems genuine.
Shasta - Likewise, though past experience has taught me never to trust him.
Rikae - Seems okay this far.
Boro - Could go either way. At the moment I'm leaning innocent on him, too. (Though I began having second thoughts as soon as I had written that.. Agh, I might use a closer look at him, too.)

NO IDEA
Eomer - Curiously enough he's under my radar, among the first I'll check when I have the time.
Wilwa - Looked slightly suspicious early on Day 1, then had a small quarrel with Agan that left me really confused, and now she's under dear Rudolph.
Ed - A classic submarine for me, no idea.
Pitchwife - Still no idea.
Blind Guardian - Too little to go on.
Mänwe - Too little to go on.
Aganzir - A headache. I'm leaving her alone for toDay.
Caílin - See Eomer.

NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
Nessa - I'm not comfortable with her track record. Her role could tell us a lot about others. The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.
Inziladun - Agh. I think I've ranted enough about him already. Leaning wolf or cobbler at this point. I found him suspicious already before the Legate 180 -episode, and I'm still unconvinced an innocent Zil would have done that.
Skip - If he's a wolf, he's a daring one. But he has done bold moves before, and Valier's death does point at him.
Legate - Makes me uneasy. He's fishy on top of his normal wishy-washy.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.

It is not like that, but I am speaking about BG, LRH, who definitely are quiet, and possibly Mänwe, of whom I don't know, but he has not been around for long.

Let me explain it once again. The point is not only about quiet wolves or something, but more about who would make the kills like these that were done. I would expect seasoned players - those who have been Wolves many times - to go mainly after the Seer. Which does not seem to be the case at least of the first Day, in my opinion. Ergo, for this reason, it would make more sense to suspect the players like LRH, BG, Nessa, perhaps Mänwe, and others, but not e.g. Mac, Rikae, Pitch, Zil, Agan, Boro... those are the people whom I would expect to make more "logical" kills.

The puzzling thing about this is that it makes it really difficult to find four Wolves among the rest of the players: there won't be too many left.

But of course, aside from that, a bit of meta-reasoning, I find it unlikely that some of the people who have been playing lately would kill Ozzy if they did not have good reason for it (which it seems to me that they didn't). That would rule out most of the people who have been playing lately, and would point more towards people who haven't been playing for some time or who themselves are not around very long: Rikae, Cailín, Mänwe, Mac, of those who have been playing recently but are not long for such a long time yet or whom I could imagine not minding as much whom they kill, maybe BG, LRH, Nessa, possibly also Eomer (?) or Wilwa (?)...

So basically, if I somehow combine this, then that gives the scope of my suspects. Which points more to the "quiet" ones.

But, to finish fully and give all that I am considering, there is the other possibility of the Wolves being fully logical and really following something with their kills - only we don't know what (framing Zil or Nessa, etc, etc), that's why we really desperately need to lynch first at least one of them (that's what I have said already several times, now it is in full context and I hope clear what I have in mind). Because then we might be able to figure out what is that they were doing.

EDIT: xed with one Green.

[Aganzir]

Inzil, why did you leave voting until so late?

10 minutes before the DL Inzil says he doesn't particularly want to vote for Lottie but he would to save himself.

8 minutes before the DL, I ask if anyone considers skip or ed. The votes are Lottie-4, Inzil-3, Nessa-3 while both skip & ed (and a couple of others) have one.

6 minutes before the DL Legate replies he might vote for skip but not in that situation.

5 minutes before the DL Inzil replies he could vote for ed because of her easy votes.
I say I'm probably voting for Nessa but might also go for Inzil.

4 minutes before the DL I vote for Nessa. Nessa-4, Lottie-4, Inzil-3. Five people are still left to vote.

3 minutes before the DL Legate votes for Nessa. Nessa-5, Lottie-4, Inzil-3. Four people left to vote, one of them Inzil himself (the remaining three hadn't posted to say they were here).

1 minute before the DL Nessa posts.

At the DL, Legate says he should've waited until later with his vote (I was very confused at first, thinking he would've voted for someone else instead if he had seen Nessa's post, but he clarified he was afraid of being outvoted).
Inzil waits till it's almost DL:01 and votes for Lottie without an explanation other than "Legate-180". I suppose that was a necessary addition given that he had expressed concern of Nessa in #222 - but he hadn't given any inclination that he considered voting for her, unlike Lottie (whom he could have voted to save himself), so it feels somehow self-conscious to me.

This doesn't really help me make up my mind about Inzil though. I'd be inclined to lynch him (at least rather than Nessa) just to be on the safe side but I'm worried what happens if he isn't a baddie after all.

[Aganzir]

I don't like Legate's meta-reasoning. It makes me feel a bit better about him though because I think a wolf would actually bother to come up with more appropriate reasons to suspect people.

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

I would not give that much credit to it either. But exactly as you said, you would kill him if you had reason to. I was not able to see any good reason to, even for possible Seerishness which somebody brought up, I believe he surely must not have been the only one, and maybe somebody would have had even more Seerish-looking personality.

I really don't know about Zil, because I can imagine that a) he might be just being framed, b) he might be a Cobbler (even more likely) - and in such case, I would prefer to lynch a Wolf to a Cobbler still. (And I know, I know, let's not start the debate about the dangerousness of the Cobbler, the point this time is, that I do not even know for sure if he is a Cobbler... basically it all comes down to if I can find anybody better to vote, anybody who looks more like a Wolf. My best pick would have been Rikae, but then again, we are back at the question if she would have taken part in the kills as they were - rather cluelessly-seeming - and also her retraction, as I said above, makes it look more like what innocent would do. So, now what...).

[A Little Green]

Ah. Thanks Legate, you're making much more sense now. (Or rather, I understand what you're saying now.) I don't know about the Ozzy kill though, it's a bit strange how you don't consider the possibility of that being an attempt to get the Seer. It's like Agan said, until we know who the wolves are we can't know who they found Seerish.

If a wolvish master plan to mess with our heads exists, I'm pretty convinced Legate is evil. If it doesn't, he's looking slightly better.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nessa --- The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.

But not too calm to be a wolf who's twice been the runner-up for the lynch?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I was not able to see any good reason to, even for possible Seerishness which somebody brought up

How about "Agan wouldn't surely kill him first, therefore she's probably innocent?"

Inzil might be the cobbler. Or he might be a wolf pretending to be the cobbler. Or an innocent with extremely bad luck.
However if he turns out to be the cobbler, or Nessa to be a wolf, we need to find out why he saved her. Did someone tip him off?

My best pick would have been Rikae, but then again, we are back at the question if she would have taken part in the kills as they were - rather cluelessly-seeming - and also her retraction, as I said above, makes it look more like what innocent would do.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but I don't think the kills look clueless. True, they haven't caught the seer yet - but I think they're being very efficient at bewildering us. (So I disagree on any notion of "quiet"/newbie wolves.)

As for Rikae's retraction, it certainly doesn't make me think her more innocent (even if it doesn't make me more suspicious of her either). Rikae knows full well how to appear innocent whatever her role.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

But not too calm to be a wolf who's twice been the runner-up for the lynch?

When you put it like that it sounds silly, yes. What I meant was that a wolf would have the time to get her bearings. She would know what is happening and why. In contrast to an innocent who is being constantly suspected by the village and framed by the wolves.

Ok, I need to dash now. Will see if I x-posted and then vote and be off.

[A Little Green]

Alrighty, then. I'm going with the best lead I have and vote

++ Inziladun

I hope to be able to make it back before DL, but I'm not sure.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

This, at least, is consistent with what she said earlier.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So you thought Nessa was wrong about Lottie - whom you didn't particularly want to lynch either?

Already explained that. Nessa's last post induced me to want to save her, even though I didn't see Lottie as all that suspicious.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And even if they're both wolves, I think it would have been worth it to save her. As far as I recall, neither of them had been attacking the other strongly, so giving the decisive vote wouldn't necessarily have cleaned them. And if two wolves are suspected heavily, their actions are often damage control rather than trying to wriggle out of the noose.

That's true. And in this game, I think the wolves would not be so quick to "bus" one another. They want the double kills to go on as long as possible.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Inzil, why did you leave voting until so late?

I was at work. Believe it or not, though I do my best to prioritize and not let things interfere with WW, there are times when I have to get some other things done.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Inzil waits till it's almost DL:01 and votes for Lottie without an explanation other than "Legate-180". I suppose that was a necessary addition given that he had expressed concern of Nessa in #222 - but he hadn't given any inclination that he considered voting for her, unlike Lottie (whom he could have voted to save himself), so it feels somehow self-conscious to me.

I'd said in other places that I wasn't comfortable with Nessa. Here I'd suggested to Kit that Nessa could be her hunt. So yes, I thought "Legate 180" might explain what I was doing.

Speaking of Kit, nothing from her toDay. Gone for good, then?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

This doesn't really help me make up my mind about Inzil though. I'd be inclined to lynch him (at least rather than Nessa) just to be on the safe side but I'm worried what happens if he isn't a baddie after all.

I'm telling you that evil as I may appear, killing me will not help this village.

[Cailín]

Valier

#25 Confused about the deadline. Says Boromir88 perhaps looks too reasonable and asks Aganzir for an explanation of her feminist statement on the gender identity of the Seer (sort of a bewildering thing to do).

#81 Nothing

#90 Thinks Pitch and Nessa look fairly innocent. Wilwa looks ok. Expresses some suspicion of Rikae and Shasta, and thinks Lommy and Greenie are quiet in an OOC kind of way.

#91 Agrees with Wilwa.

#102 Suspects Inzil because of his vote for Nessa, and thinks she will vote Inzil or Rikae. (she is pretty consistently defending Nessa here)

#107 Some Seer-related comments. Does not approve of people trying to tell the Seer what to do.

#109 Agrees with Wilwa again

#139 & 140 Questions Lottie. Still suspicious of Inzil because of the vote for Nessa. Votes Inzil.

#146 Accepts Lottie's answer

#167 Thinks Inzil might be being framed by the death of Kath and Oz, or trying to be clever

#199 Agrees with Mac and thinks Kath and Oz were easy, traceless kills. Wonders why the wolves did not go for the Seer (honestly, if our wolf pack is incompetent - which is doubtful in this village - they will definitely after all the remarks we made about it). Defends herself and proclaims her Innocence.

#247 suspects Legate and Skip

#271 A list. Most of the people are don't knows - this is a very vague list for someone whom the wolves might have believed to be the Seer. The only possible Seer statement is on Rikae (whom she suspected yesterDay and thinks innocent now) and Skip whom she suddenly suspects quite strongly. Then again, she does not immediately vote for skip but mentions a whole list of possibles.

#281 Still defends Nessa and votes Skip.

So if the wolves thought Valier was the Seer, then Nessa and Rikae are looking fairly good, and Skip looks bad. I am not convinced - Valier was obviously not the Seer and I cannot quite see how the wolves would have confused her for one - but I will keep this in mind as I go over the posts of those of us actually still alive.

[Rikae]

Mac, I don't think it's so unlikely for a wolf to think either of two people might be a seer who dreamt him. Thinking that, the pack might eliminate both at once and plan to pass it off as a bluff, and, if that doesn't work, throw the "almost certainly dreamed" wolf under the bus. I would, anyway.

I keep disagreeing with Mac, but I find him innocentish. In his favor, he's very conscientious about new players, so I doubt he would have been OK with killing Oz so early.

I have bad feelings, still, about Pitch and Inzil, and also, although less formed, about Legate and Skip. I fear, though I can't imagne there isn't a wolf among them, that I don't judge between them well since I tend to place them all in the same "group" mentally - skillful, logical male players who joined the 'downs after I did and make rather controlled posts (although Skip's hunter joke might edge him out of that group).

I don't see much use in trying to determine the makeup of the pack with regard to loud and quiet... the village is roughly half and half, but wolves choose based on their individual paranoias, hunches, prejudices, etc. - not how loud or quiet they are - and a pack tends to zero in on someone multiple wolves want to kill, even if it's for different reasons. At least, in my experience, that's how it is - a voting sort of process. Trying to reconstruct it from the village side of things tends to be a bit of a distraction, actually, although there are some things - like who would not likely have killed Oz - that we can deduce.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't know about the Ozzy kill though, it's a bit strange how you don't consider the possibility of that being an attempt to get the Seer. It's like Agan said, until we know who the wolves are we can't know who they found Seerish.

Of course it might have been, I would just imagine that the WWs could have had other targets too.

But anyway, maybe I am overcombinating stuff too and perhaps the WWs are simply going for those who suspect them, in which case it would be really simple and the Wolves are like Nessa, Zil and some others and we are just wasting days worrying about nothing when we should just lynch them.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

How about "Agan wouldn't surely kill him first, therefore she's probably innocent?"

That's of course one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you yet

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Speaking of Kit, nothing from her toDay. Gone for good, then?

Her death (of her own resignation) is in the narration, I figure she told Nog she was pulling off for good.

I will be gone soon probably for a few hours, but will appear before DL for sure, and then vote.

[Cailín]

Went over Lommy's posts too, of course. She changed her mind about Inzil and Nessa over Night - both going from innocent to guilty in her eyes. Her first list was unSeerish with no certain statements, though she has consistently singled out Boromir88 as guiltless (and some others, but Boromir with the most constant conviction). Her second list was equally unSeerish and she had a reasonable argument for her suspicion of Zil (believing him to know who was going to be killed before it was announced because of his fast response to the Night's events). She was flip-flopping on Nessa.

Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill or something involving Inzil (bluff, double bluff, you all know the drill).

[Inziladun]

I find it curious that two of the most quiet players, who would seemingly be good "no-trail" kills, are still with us. I thought I'd look at ed.

Day 1

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

Right, well, I had been content to sit and watch everyone else debate and glean what I could (mostly because I'm no good at thinking strategically at all), but I should probably say a brief piece before DL.

Mac and Boro have amused me greatly. In an unrelated item, they also make the most sense to me. I can't pinpoint why, but there doesn't seem anything particularly wolfish about them.

I agree with Legate's point about Inzil not coming across as suspiciously as last time.

So. Not voting any of those four. Yet.

Pitch seems shady, for reasons others have mentioned. If it was just "Hey, wait, why me?", then I wouldn't be so worried, but it's been "Hey, wait, why me? Also, here's a lot of words to make me seem like I'm contributing."

Agan doesn't look too bad to me, maybe a little shifty, but I'll have to go back and read through things again. I'll do the same with Lottie, since I'm not entirely sure where Legate's vote came from...

Right, that's it from me for now. I'll be back briefly before DL to vote, but likely not much more; I have to do rather a lot of driving today.

I guess the noteworthy thing here is that she finds Pitch "shady", when many others had already cast suspicion on him as well.

Nothing else until a late vote:

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

++ Pitch

Sorry for cutting it so close. And I sincerely hope I'm not wrong...this feels like a shot in the dark...

At that time, Nessa was in the lead with four votes. I had three, and Pitch had two. It's unlikely at least that ed and Nessa are packmates, since ed's obvious move to save her would have been to vote for me instead of Pitch.

Day 2

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I'll try to give a more substantial post once I've had some sleep, but my feelings at the moment are...

Mac makes sense to me, and I can't seem him being guilty.

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I'm mildly worried about almost everyone who killed Sally. The lack of adequate reasoning bewilders me; but, then again, it may just have been Day-1 paranoia.

I still don't like the vibes I'm getting from Pitch.

Eomer worries me. There is a bit too much defensiveness...

Not really sure about other people. Legate is very analytical, but seems to me he's usually like that.

On the whole Kitanna situation...this is highly tragic. There may be tears.

Right, well. Now I've said my piece and I'm off to bed.

So, she's still not liking Pitch. Also worried about Eomer, and the people on the Sally-wagon. Says she doesn't think Mac looks guilty, and is inclined to trust me.

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

Some scattered thoughts:

I've tried to read through as thoroughly as I can, but I don't think my brain has come to terms with it all yet.

I agree with (I think it was Shasta's's) point that we should wait on lynching Kit until toMorrow, if we even want to at all. There are pros and cons to consider.

Boro is a little worrisome, but Eomer and Pitch are more so.

Shasta is quieter than I expected him to be, which is a bit unnerving, but that's probably just unreasonable expectations on my part.

Inzil's first post toDay, and everyone's reactions to it, have begun to make me doubt his innocence somewhat.

Rikae could go either way. Having not played with her before, I'm very unsure.

I'll be back in a bit to vote. Hopefully I'll have made more sense of things by then.

Doesn't want to lynch Kit. Still worried about Pitch and Eomer, but she's now added Boro to the list of suspects. She now thinks I'm suspicious for my first post of the Day, which, honestly, is a silly reason to suspect me. It really isn't that difficult to scan the previous Day's votes, you know. She admits that other people thinking I looked bad for that post have influenced her thinking.

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I have a feeling my "maybe I should just be quiet so I won't say something stupid in my second game" is working just as well as "maybe I should talk a lot so I don't seem suspiciously quiet" last time. Phooey.

Thus, I'm not inclined to let considerations and votes for me alter my opinion of people.

I still think Inzil's mostly all right.

So.

++ Lottie

She seems the shadiest of all. Her Kit vote after the consensus had been to not vote that direction just seems to much like an easy way out.

Apparently decided I was all right after all. Disregarded earlier suspects in favor of Lottie, not liking her vote for revealed Hunter Kit. Rikae had said the same thing and had voted for Lottie, before retracting and voting for me. When ed voted, Nessa, Lottie and I were tied at three.

Conclusions? The votes have been easy ones, and both Days they've come in very near DL. What she's said has been consistent, though following in the tracks of others.
My gut wants to say she's innocent, but I could see a wolf there, too.

[Blind Guardian]

I am here. Sorry about not being around very much, I'm kinda incline just to quit. Mom wouldn't let me on the computer. -_-


Anyways, I still suspect Nessa, even more now. To me she looks wolf-ish. Now if you will excuse me, I'm going to look as Inzil...

[Cailín]

Thanks for that, Inzil.

I agree: elronds_daughter's posts and votes do not look good, but then skip (whom I now distrust because of Valier's death) voted for her yesterDay in what seemed to be an attempt at a convenient and excusable bandwagon, though he adequately described it as a random stab in the dark (not something that seems particularly useful right now). Of course, you yourself are a dodgy character as well.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

What I meant was that a wolf would have the time to get her bearings. She would know what is happening and why. In contrast to an innocent who is being constantly suspected by the village and framed by the wolves.

I'm not sure about that, I think it's more of a playing style thing. I get mad when suspected regardless of my role, and I suppose some people always stay calm.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Already explained that. Nessa's last post induced me to want to save her, even though I didn't see Lottie as all that suspicious.

I know but that isn't what I meant - I thought your phrasing looked funny.

I was at work.

I still think it was fishy to leave voting till the very last second but I guess that's fair enough.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That's of course one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you yet

Wait, what? I say "I could be a wolf" and you say "That's why I don't suspect you"?

Originally Posted by Cailín

Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I find it curious that two of the most quiet players, who would seemingly be good "no-trail" kills, are still with us.

I don't think that's so curious. The less they speak, the less of a danger they are to the wolves. Even if they're right, they won't convince anyone if they don't post enough.

As an aside, I totally know why we chose Pericles for Rikae.

I was planning to analyse one of my Either people, but I'm feeling okay about Legate, Pitch has already been analysed twice, I'm tired of thinking about Nessa & Inzil, I want Boro to post more, and I have absolutely nothing on BG & Mänwe. This annoys me, so I suppose I'll just go through skip's posts. I'm starting now but it might take me long because I'm off to the grocery as soon as my seer friend (who randomly asked yesterday if we've already lynched Mac) gets out of the shower.

[Blind Guardian]

Inzil


#24- jokes inrole, says he will return
# 48 Agrees with Agan on getting a wolf soon. Suspects Pitch. Will not lynch me on Day! SOmeother things...comments on DL.

#50 Jokes with Lottie

# 54 responds to Mac about wolves and the cobbler hinting early.

#59- Jokes with Boro and Rikae

#72- Comments on Kits 'easy vote' of Pitch Jokes on Ozban's Satan mistake.

#98 Votes nessa, says she sounds off.

DAY2

#166 'interesting' kills, wants to know why. Both had something to do with him...

#169 - jokes with Legate, does not like Sally-wagon

#193 Agrees that Ozban's death is strange. Did not think Sally as evil. Is not comfterble with Nessa or Mac.

#194 Might suspect Val

#196 Does not know why a baddie would false reveal as a hunter

#198 Is joking...?

#222- Doesn't know if Kit will be back after a day or never. Seems to think Kit wants to use her gift. (hunter) Is concerned about Val, nessa, Pitch and Mac

#232 responds to Skips joke-reveal as the Hunter. Jokes

#237 responds to Skip 's Hunter reveal

#261 doesn't want to vote for Kit or a quiet one.

#292 Doesn't like Val's vote.

302 Doesn't want to vote for Lottie

308 Would vote for ed

Votes for Lottie

Is sorry for voting for Lottie

Doesn't think people are going to listen to him

Comments on his vote

More vote comments

Sums up elronds_daughter's role. (took attention off himself it looks like)


Edit: xed since me


Edit2: That was my longest post ever!

[elronds_daughter]

I wish I had something substantial to contribute, but I'm afraid this is all still sort of a jumbled mess in my head, and other people are making more sense out of it than I can. Thus, I haven't made much of an account of myself, and it appears I've let myself get swept up in a most unfortunate bandwagon. Rats. Now the only person I still have any sort of a clear idea on is Mac, and that's mostly because he's seeming the most objective. I still don't think Inzil is a wolf, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's the cobbler. My formerly neutral feelings on Rikae are tending towards "seems innocent to me".

I'm not sure what to make of all this talk about the quiet ones, me being one of that number. I'm still trying to get my feet (which at this point in the game had better happen fast or I may doom the village). Twenty-four people was a lot to get my brain around. Now we're down to seventeen, but that's still a lot for my non-strategical mind.

I think I need a cup of tea to clear my head.

[skip spence]

Here and reading. That said today is going to be a bad day for participation for me. Have a bit of time now, that's all.

[wilwarin538]

Ok, I'm here, and I've tried to process everything.

I notice there's a lot of talk about the kills and how they don't seem to make a lot of sense, but I think everyone is forgetting something: the Cobbler sends in a suggestion.

Think about it; perhaps the wolves together are only deciding on 1 person, and then whoever the Cobbler suggests is who their 2nd person is (as long as it's not them, obviously). If they do that they may not really have their own reasons to kill the 2nd person, they're just trusting that perhaps the Cobbler spotted something (a Gifted hint perhaps) that they missed. This would also kind of seperate themselves from one of the kills, making it harder to track back to them. So perhaps we should be considering the kills from a Cobbler's perspective? I'm not sure if that all makes complete sense, and it depends on the wolf pack, they could just be ignoring the Cobbler, but we shouldn't forget that there's a 5th person who has a say at Night.

I also noticed lots of us (including myself) have been saying that some things are "too obvious" and I think we have to get out of that mindset. Sometimes things really are just as they seem, and wolves can easily do things that seem too obvious, hoping the village thinks that and ignores it.

I'm afraid I have to go to work in an hour, I thought toDay would be much better for me for participation, but it's not turning out that way. I'm going to skim back through and try to find a suspect.

x'ed since Agan

[Blind Guardian]

I have to go so i am going to vote

++Nessa

I have had a feeling about her since the beginning and it's not getting better.

(By the way, this game ends in the middle of my day, thus my early votes.)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

As an aside, I totally know why we chose Pericles for Rikae.

The big head?

[Rikae]

I just noticed something.
Pitch, why were you hinting at/about Boro late in Day one?

[wilwarin538]

So, I have to go I'm afraid. I need to vote, and I don't have time to look at everyone closely, so I'm going to give my opinion on the two people who seem to be the ones everyone is considering.

I still don't get the Nessa thing, do people even have legitimate reasons to suspect her, or has she just become a fallback? I've just had the chance to skim through yesterDay, so maybe I just missed something, but I don't really get it. I know she said a couple odd things Day 1, but I don't really see anything else that is so incriminating that everyone keeps going for her. I definitely need to take my own close look at her, I just don't have the time to do that right now.

Inzil makes more sense to me. His last minute vote was strange (and if he's guilty Nessa does looks pretty bad), and his tone at the beginning of the Day today is really weird. His whole "I'll understand it if you lynch me". To me it always seems like innocents get a bit more upset when they're in danger of being lynched, and don't just sit back and take it (when you're innocent you don't want to get lynched because it's no good for the village, so if you really want to win you fight to stay alive so that the lynch can hopefully be used in a more useful manner, atleast that's how I see it). While a wolf may try to be understanding, saying that they don't mind dying to get some sympathy and maybe skate by. That's why I never get why people see defensiveness as a sign of guilt, because it's not just the wolves that want to stay alive, and wolves are less likely to want to make a big scene out of their defense. Him being a Cobbler would also make sense. His whole tone just seems like he's trying to be too cooperative, and is afraid to cause trouble.

So since I'm very quickly running out of time, I'm gonna go for Inzil, even if it is mostly on a gut thing:

++ Inzil

[Pitchwife]

A look at one of our quieter people:

Eomer

D1
#62 Joking banter. Observes that no one wants to stick out. Will not vote for Zil (for humour's sake) and Cailín (for obvious reasons); Ozzy could be "a potential nutter" (whatever that means).

#87 questions wilwa about the 'Pitch wagon'.

#117 complains of "over-analysis" (not sure to what this refers). Getting wolf vibes from Nessa, skip and Lottie. Jokes that he "always wants to kill" Kit, Greenie, Lommy and Kath.

#136 "Day One reasoning is, and ought to be, the slave of the passions."

#148 Would rather let Zil live. Votes Nessa because she "looks a bit funny".

#157 Replies to Lommy, who said that the Nessa-wagon felt wrong: "I didn't bother covering my tracks. You think it'll make you look better?"
Weird remark, if it wasn't meant as banter. From this and his last post it looks like he voted Nessa, at least in part, in order to save Zil, putting her in the lead by one vote.


D2
#175 Thinks Ozzy was killed because of a "definite seer hint"; Kath's dead not so interesting, but he promises to look at Kath. Defends the sallywagon, it was understandable without hindsight. Confused about the argument between wilwa and Agan over sally's cobbler comments. I thought more or less the same at the time.

#180 Kath didn't look like a Seer, but perhaps the wolves feared her wolf hunting powers. Ozzy's verses and his vote for Nessa could have looked giftedish to the wolves. Repeats that Nessa had already felt wolvish to him on Day 1. Again, my thoughts exactly.

#218 Thinks Lommy's observation about Zil's quick first post was a "good spot". Doesn't want to lynch Kit. He was a bit either-or about the matter of Zil's first post here.

#269 "All the loudmouths" (meaning Zil, me, Rikae, Agan, Legate and Mac) feel innocent. Nessa still feels wolvish, corroborated by the Ozzy kill. skip feels less wolvish. Unsure about Lommy, LR's daughter and BG. "Valier does look pretty creepy." Votes Nessa. I'm not sure where Valier's 'creepiness' came from - I noticed that several people (Legate for one, if I'm not mistaken) expressed uneasiness about her yesterDay, which I couldn't and can't see a real reason for. Anybody care to explain?

Conclusion so far: on Day 1, mostly commenting, some quaint humour; on Day 2, much more focussed. He went after Nessa consistently, for reasons I can find no fault with. As a personal observation, the Eowolf I was packmates with some games ago was both crazier and less relaxed, if that makes sense - this looks more like the innocent Eomer from our last game together.
Noteworthy is his early connection to Zil on Day 1. If Zil is guilty and Nessa innocent, he could be Zil's packmate. If Zil is innocent and Nessa guilty, he'd be a very unlikely wolf in my opinion.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I just noticed something.
Pitch, why were you hinting at/about Boro late in Day one?

I'm not aware of doing any such thing. Where was that?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Legate

I would expect seasoned players - those who have been Wolves many times - to go mainly after the Seer. Which does not seem to be the case at least of the first Day, in my opinion. Ergo, for this reason, it would make more sense to suspect the players like LRH, BG, Nessa, perhaps Mänwe, and others, but not e.g. Mac, Rikae, Pitch, Zil, Agan, Boro... those are the people whom I would expect to make more "logical" kills.

What if you don't have any leads regarding the seer? Then the logical choice is to go after one that gives you an advantage during the Day.

Anyway, if we think the wolves went after the seer, then toDay's lynch is a total no-brainer: Skip, not any of the ones you list.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, I don't think it's so unlikely for a wolf to think either of two people might be a seer who dreamt him. Thinking that, the pack might eliminate both at once and plan to pass it off as a bluff, and, if that doesn't work, throw the "almost certainly dreamed" wolf under the bus. I would, anyway.

With the extra kill as long as they're all together, I find it extremely unlikely that any bus-throwing is taking place at the moment.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm here now! Let me see.

Valier did not strike me as a seer. I suppose the wolves feared her reputation as a formidable wolf-spotter, and decided to end things.

I need to go through Lommy's posts but, as far as my memory serves me, this strikes me as another odd kill.

Could be exactly what they want, and I'm loathe to fall into a trap, but I think they would have killed me by now if Nessa was a wolf. Could be time for a re-think on my part. Need to start looking critically at these helpful, co-operative loudmouths.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I wish I had something substantial to contribute, but I'm afraid this is all still sort of a jumbled mess in my head, and other people are making more sense out of it than I can.

Ah but you have. You don't have to come up with anything original, just your opinions on everybody suffice for now. That means we have an easier time figuring out your fellows if you turn out to be a wolf.

I'm not sure what to make of all this talk about the quiet ones, me being one of that number.

It's mostly just rubbish as Greenie pointed out (although with kinder words). I like to lynch a quiet player if I don't have a better suspect because it's often easier for them to slide by unnoticed while the louder ones tear each other apart. But speculating on whether a certain kill points at a quiet or a loud player... that's of no importance whatsoever.

I think I need a cup of tea to clear my head.

Cobbler hint!

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

perhaps the wolves together are only deciding on 1 person, and then whoever the Cobbler suggests is who their 2nd person is

If the wolves decide to go with the cobbler's suggestion, it means they've weighed the situation and the consequences of the kill and know exactly what they are doing. They wouldn't follow the cobbler blindly just to distance themselves from the kill. I guess your suggestion is reasonable enough, but the first thing it brought to my mind was either a wolwarin or a wibbler (sorry ) telling the other(s), "See, you and I know we've been doing this!"

Originally Posted by Rikae

The big head?

Aww no! It's just that your influence in this village covers... just about everything.

Okay continuing my skip analysis now.

[skip spence]

l've had a look at yesterDay with a focus on the voting which eventually led to the lynching of Lottie. Sorry if the formatting comes out a bit messy!

The Day starts at 11.03 PM with

Originally Posted by Inzil

Interesting kill choices, I think. Kath, who voted for me, and Ozban, who followed my vote for Nessa. Why them?

Legate and Lottie comments early that this makes them feel better about Inzil. Leg's suspicions are later aroused though:

Originally Posted by Legate

I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf?

Nessa makes an early vote for Rikae (for the second time). I never quite understood why Nessa's after Rikae? Care to explain?

#246 BG votes Nessa. "a feeling" and "too much confidence" is the explanation. Don't really understand that confidence thing to be honest...

#248 Mac says Inzil is an "amateur-wolf" if he'd make that first post as a wolf. Or is this what he'd have us think? Mac adds...

#254 Lottie votes Kit because she very uncharacteristically has no suspects at all

#256 I vote Elrond's daughter for being a submarine. This was a spur-of-the-moment decision as I got a call from a friend who needed help and had to leave.

#269 Eomer votes Nessa (2) "Nessa is still bothering me: she just feels like a wolf. The Ozban kill seems to tie in with it, so I'd be most inclined to kill Nessa today."

#274 Shasta votes Lottie because he doesn't like that Kit-vote. Me and Cailin has already expressed the same sentiment.

#275 Pitch votes Nessa (3) He thinks there might have been a wolf in the running on Day 1 but don't think it was Inzil.

#281 Val says she doesn't like the bandwagon against Nessa and votes Me (mostly because of that joke it seens)

#284 Greenie votes Inzil, mostly because that very quick comment on the kills and their significance. Thinks this is a bad sign. Lommy earlier made the same
point.

#291 Rikae votes Lottie (2) "For her Kitanna vote and for being a submarine."

#293 Lommy votes Inzil (2), I assume mostly because that early comment.

#294 Rikae retracts her Lottie-vote and goes for Inzil (3) instead

#296 Cailin votes Lottie (2) (eager to wash her hands ie the Kit-vote)

#298 Mac votes Lottie (3) "the only sensible option" ??

#303 elrond's daughter defends Inzil and votes Lottie (4)

#305 Agan asks for support: anyone into voting skip or ed? Inzil says maye ed; Legate maybe skip

#310 Agan votes Nessa (4) because the is the most quiet among the suspects.

#311 Legate votes Nessa (5) Think I missed why.. Why?

#314 On the deadline Inzil votes Lottie (5) who is lynched, because he was swayed be Nessa who popped up and defended Lottie.

If Nessa and Inzil are fellows this would be a very bold move. Yet it makes sense I guess. Perhaps he figured that one of them were bound to get lynched for this sooner or later, and which later a better alternative in this case with the double kills. Need to think more about this.

All this is giving me a bad feeling actually. If we lynch Inzil and he is innocent, what do we do then?

Another thing: I find it curious that Nessa did not retract her Rikae-vote and voted for say Lottie or Inzil to save herself. Why didn't you, Nessa?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Agan

Okay continuing my skip analysis now

I have no doubt you'll find me guilty, sweetheart

[Cailín]

Well, I've been pondering some more and all I have come up with is a list of reasons why I stopped playing werewolves in the first place. Won't share that one with you though.

Those Who Appear Innocent

Eomer of the Rohirrim - I am honestly just mentioning him first because he's top of the list and all. I would love to suspect him, but I am fairly sure he is either innocent or will in the next few days declare his wolvery in some obvious way.

Macalaure - I find him sensible.

A Little Green - Her contributions today have been helpful and I found myself agreeing with many of her points.

Shasta - He has been fairly quiet though. I wonder why?

Aganzir - Could fool me.

Those Who Are Silent

elronds_daughter - Yea, she's quiet. Yea, she made some shady calls. I do not yet see evil.

Blind Guardian - a relentless and somewhat thoughtless pursuit of Nessa here. I find this suspicious.

Nessa - We talk about her a lot, but there's no answer. Could she really be a wolf?

Manwe - has been completely flying under the radar so far. One to watch.

The Unpopular Ones

Pitchwife - seems to have gathered a lot of suspicion, backed off, changed ways... I find his analyses convincing and lucid enough, but his self preservation instincts may seem subtle wolf rather than shocked innocent.

Inziladun - has without a doubt been a distraction: strange.

Skip Spence - looks worst after last night though I cannot find the double Seer attempt story convincing - Lommy's suspicion of him was so unfixed.

The Others

Rikae - She could be either. Or. And dangerous.

Boromir88 - Strangely silent. Whether he is trying a new technique and hide in the crowd - banking on his reputation to see him through for a while - or just uninterested... I am not sure.

Legate of Amon Lanc - I do not like how he is basing all his reasoning on meta-game hunches. His posts also seem jumbled, unstructured and filled with awkward sentences: either he is being overly deliberate (wolvish behaviour) or just confused.

Wilwarin - I am not convinced of her guilt but I do not like any of her posts (to which I will add a sorry Wilwa, because you have always been quite friendly really).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm not aware of doing any such thing. Where was that?

When you repeatedly and prominently used a word associated with him in one particular post.

Originally Posted by Mac

With the extra kill as long as they're all together, I find it extremely unlikely that any bus-throwing is taking place at the moment.

If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Another thing: I find it curious that Nessa did not retract her Rikae-vote and voted for say Lottie or Inzil to save herself. Why didn't you, Nessa?

Because my desire to see Rikae lynched outweighed my desire to live. You see, I figured that once everyone saw that I was innocent, they would be inclined to take a second look at the person who I'd consistently voted.

Although, my suspicion for Rikae is beginning to wane in light of her overall helpfullness, and that nothing else she's said has resulted in stirring the pot-so to speak. It also helps that Legate's giving me the chills.

I also continue to believe that Inzil is innocent. After playing with Inzilwolf in the last game, I'm getting a different tone from him, not to mention the style of the wolves feels quite different in this game. And his some of his actions have been way too radical to come from a wolf who had double-kills to risk, should anyone take his words the wrong way.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Nessa makes an early vote for Rikae (for the second time). I never quite understood why Nessa's after Rikae? Care to explain?

This should suffice:

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.