Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Dude, EW does it all the time. Would you like me to go dig up examples? Because I will.

Would it be cruel of me to request that you do this?

I'm off to bed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

My dear Shasta: it makes perfect sense, and the reason for not dreaming about me is that there are almost a dozen people he can dream of. I know it's tempting to see patterns, but first: one example (that of Volo) does not a pattern make; and second: patterns can change anytime anyway.

You could shoehorn your theory in there, but that would ignore the fact that the Seer screamed your guilt from the rooftop.

I believe you're the one shoehorning. Or do you expect us to believe that he voted you just for kicks and giggles?

[Nerwen]

I believe you're the one shoehorning. Or do you expect us to believe that he voted you just for kicks and giggles?

He went out of his way to make it clear that he did not know Eomer's role:

Originally Posted by EW

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad.

In your case, my jewel, not so much:

Originally Posted by EW

++Shasta

I think he tried to frame Nogrod as the BW. Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

This statement sticks in my craw,
That is not what Lottie had been advocating and I think you know it. One way or another, you're goin' down boy.

One last thing, I'm a he. This is the Elf-warrior, signing off. Death to lycanthropes!!

Rather a startling change of tone.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And another thing. He didn't, actually. According to what EW said in his post, he voted me for the following two reasons -

1. "I think he tried to frame Nog as the BW"

and

2. "This statement sticks in my craw" (re: my statement about Lottie which was quite obviously banter).

Both contrived, since reason 1 was discussed yesterDay and the question raised was "why would a Shastawolf go to all that trouble to frame Nog just to kill him?"

Someone's twisting words, and it's not me.

I quite agree. But, my dearest, when THE SEER has to come up with contrived reasons for voting someone, it tends to mean that his real reason is something else. SO that's not exactly a point in your favour.

[Nerwen]

I bloody well hope Shasta's a wolf, anyway, because I don't see how we can't lynch him now.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

He went out of his way to make it clear that he did not know Eomer's role:


In your case, my jewel, not so much:


Rather a startling change of tone.



I quite agree. But, my dearest, when THE SEER has to come up with contrived reasons for voting someone, it tends to mean that his real reason is something else. SO that's not exactly a point in your favour.

Except, darling one, EW also came up with contrived reasons for voting both Volo and Eomer (especially in Volo's case) and I think we're all in agreement that he voted Volo and then dreamt him.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

He went out of his way to make it clear that he did not know Eomer's role:

The quote you refer to, shining sapphire, was made before (I believe) EW dreamt Eomer, which points to a clear pattern.

[Loslote]

If I had to guess, I'd go with the
1. Me
2. Volo
3. Shasta

...but I don't know why he'd dream me. *shrugs*

Sorry, Shasta, but there's really no other conclusion I can come to. His vote for Eomer does not look like a Seer dream. His vote for you, did. He even said explicitly that you were a wolf:

I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night.

And he gave his reason for dreaming you. You said something that jumped out to him. If we go with the theory that he'd dreamt of me, then you mentioning his known innocent would have drawn his eye, and it "stuck in his craw". It doesn't get much clearer than this.

++Shasta

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The quote you refer to, shining sapphire, was made before (I believe) EW dreamt Eomer, which points to a clear pattern.

The "pattern", was that TEW voted two people without saying they were definitely evil (and one of them was later revealed to be innocent). That pattern was broken with you.

x/d with Lottie

[satansaloser2005]

I'm here, and I have popcorn. Anyone want a bite?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm here, and I have popcorn. Anyone want a bite?

Just had chili, but thanks anyway.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The "pattern", was that TEW voted two people without saying they were definitely evil (and one of them was later revealed to be innocent). That pattern was broken with you.

x/d with Lottie

Um, no, the pattern is that EW voted people before dreaming them, as I've said... thrice, now. I still see no plausible reason for his Eomer-vote except for the one I've brought up myself - in fact, no one's even bothering to think about it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

If I had to guess, I'd go with the
1. Me
2. Volo
3. Shasta

...but I don't know why he'd dream me. *shrugs*

Sorry, Shasta, but there's really no other conclusion I can come to. His vote for Eomer does not look like a Seer dream. His vote for you, did. He even said explicitly that you were a wolf:



And he gave his reason for dreaming you. You said something that jumped out to him. If we go with the theory that he'd dreamt of me, then you mentioning his known innocent would have drawn his eye, and it "stuck in his craw". It doesn't get much clearer than this.

++Shasta

Precisely. He voted Eomer before dreaming him - I really don't see any other reason for completely dropping him the next day (other than that I'm a wolf, but I happen to know I'm not, so...) And 'accusations' have been made in that manner before and haven't been true, so latching onto this one makes no sense.

[satansaloser2005]

++Agan

I don't plan on voting any differently until she's dead, so why wait?


Besides, I'm going to get sick of all this Shasta discussion fairly quickly. If we're going to lynch him, let's lynch him, but stop dwelling on it. If he's a wolf, he's not the only wolf, and if he's not a wolf, then there are other wolves to catch. (If he's the BW, of course, we need to kill him, but if we use that EW quote as evidence then Shasta being the BW is highly unlikely.)

Dinner time. Back soon. Behave while I'm gone, k?

[satansaloser2005]

Clarification: I'm totally okay with testing this Shasta theory, but I don't want us to get too single-minded. Besides, Agan's totally evil. Can we kill both of them?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Clarification: I'm totally okay with testing this Shasta theory, but I don't want us to get too single-minded. Besides, Agan's totally evil. Can we kill both of them?

Love you too, babe.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Um, no, the pattern is that EW voted people before dreaming them, as I've said... thrice, now. I still see no plausible reason for his Eomer-vote except for the one I've brought up myself - in fact, no one's even bothering to think about it.

So you think he voted people just to show who he dreamed? I think it's more likely that he voted the people he suspected. Eomer was so universally suspected, he wasn't really worth the dream. You weren't even close to being universally suspected. Even if he suspected you already, you weren't going to be lynched. Eomer might have been, which makes Eomer the better choice to vote and you the better choice to dream.

EDIT: xed with Sally and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So you think he voted people just to show who he dreamed? I think it's more likely that he voted the people he suspected. Eomer was so universally suspected, he wasn't really worth the dream. You weren't even close to being universally suspected. Even if he suspected you already, you weren't going to be lynched. Eomer might have been, which makes Eomer the better choice to vote and you the better choice to dream.

No, I think he voted people to show who he was going to dream. You can say Eomer wasn't worth the dream, but that's entirely your opinion.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So you think he voted people just to show who he dreamed? I think it's more likely that he voted the people he suspected.

No, I don't really see why a Seer would indicate he'd dreamed an innocent by not only voting for them, but in Shasta's case outright calling them a wolf.

x/d with Shasta: So a Seer would think it logical to show who he intended to dream by voting for them? And if he looked over the thread during the Night and changed his mind, what then?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

No, I think he voted people to show who he was going to dream. You can say Eomer wasn't worth the dream, but that's entirely your opinion.

I think that's awfully complicated, and not necessarily likely for people to catch on about. Yeah, you did (assuming this scenario is correct) but how many people would have noticed that? It might be that, or it might be a coincidence. Like someone said (Pitchie or Zil, maybe?), we only "know" (and I'm using know in the most non-certain way here) that's what happened with Volo. It's not a pattern; it's a guess.

Also, I know I've xed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

No, I don't really see why a Seer would indicate he'd dreamed an innocent by not only voting for them, but in Shasta's case outright calling them a wolf.

x/d with Shasta: So a Seer would think it logical to show who he intended to dream by voting for them? And if he looked over the thread during the Night and changed his mind, what then?

Twisting again. Did I, ever, say 'that's what a Seer would do'? No. That's what I think EW did, and obviously that's the theory I advocate, since the other is obviously wrong (from my point of view). If you could stop twisting everything I say to suit your cobblerish desire to have me lynched, I'd appreciate it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Um, no, the pattern is that EW voted people before dreaming them, as I've said... thrice, now.

Twice that the rest of us know of– and I don't know why a Seer would feel the need to follow such a strict modus operandi on a relatively minor point, yet break the golden rule of "never directly accuse someone you haven't dreamed".

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And 'accusations' have been made in that manner before and haven't been true, so latching onto this one makes no sense.

You're the Seer, you haven't dreamed any villains– how do you vote? In a non-committal way, preferably hinting that you don't actually know anything: "Well, I'll have to go with A", "B is certainly acting funny, though I could be wrong".

You're the Seer, you've dreamed a wolf– how do you vote? Well, unless you're revealing, you don't actually say, "I dreamed C and he's a wolf"– but you come as close to it as you dare. "Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night" is about as explicit as it gets, particularly when followed by "you're going down, boy," and "death to lycanthropes".

Of course, it is true that EW is inexperienced, and might not have taken into consideration how things would look after he died. All I can say, my flawless diamond, is that in that case we're going to need to add a "Tips for Newbie Seers" section to the Guidelines thread.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta at #372.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Clarification: I'm totally okay with testing this Shasta theory, but I don't want us to get too single-minded. Besides, Agan's totally evil. Can we kill both of them?

There's only two ways you could know Agan is evil: you're a wolf who knows she's the BW because you tried to kill her; or you're Ferny who knows she's a wolf because you guessed her.

Which is it?

x/d with all since my last

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

There's only two ways you could know Agan is evil: you're a wolf who knows she's the BW because you tried to kill her; or you're Ferny who knows she's a wolf because you guessed her.

Which is it?

x/d with all since my last

Neither of the above. I've said she's a wolf more likely than the BW, which rules out your first thought, and if I was Ferny, wouldn't I be protecting her?

Sense, you make none. Please try again.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Neither of the above. I've said she's a wolf more likely than the BW, which rules out your first thought, and if I was Ferny, wouldn't I be protecting her?

Sense, you make none. Please try again.

Merely being flippant, Popcorn Princess.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Neither of the above. I've said she's a wolf more likely than the BW, which rules out your first thought, and if I was Ferny, wouldn't I be protecting her?

Sense, you make none. Please try again.

At least someone agrees with me!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Twice that the rest of us know of– and I don't know why a Seer would feel the need to follow such a strict modus operandi on a relatively minor point, yet break the golden rule of "never directly accuse someone you haven't dreamed".



You're the Seer, you haven't dreamed any villains– how do you vote? In a non-committal way, preferably hinting that you don't actually know anything: "Well, I'll have to go with A", "B is certainly acting funny, though I could be wrong".

You're the Seer, you've dreamed a wolf– how do you vote? Well, unless you're revealing, you don't actually say, "I dreamed C and he's a wolf"– but you come as close to it as you dare. "Shasta, I hope you're pleased at what you and your buddies accomplished last night" is about as explicit as it gets, particularly when followed by "you're going down, boy," and "death to lycanthropes".

Of course, it is true that EW is inexperienced, and might not have taken into consideration how things would look after he died. All I can say, my flawless diamond, is that in that case we're going to need to add a "Tips for Newbie Seers" section to the Guidelines thread.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta at #372.

Looked like flippancy to me. EW said this about Eomer -

Originally Posted by EW

I'd bet he's bad.

- does this, by implication, mean Eomer's a wolf?

Answer - no. I don't see why situation A apparently gives results B and C just because of a slight change in unrelated variable D.

[wilwarin538]

Longest day ever, I'm so exhausted...

So I can just pop on quickly now for a few comments before I fall asleep for a good 8 hours. I don't think I'll be able to come on that often tomorrow because of work and school, but I'll try my hardest.

I agree with the Shasta thing, I mean I get what he's saying about EW's little pattern, and if he is innocent then that would be a very annoying situation for him, but it's a bad idea to ignore the Seer who clearly felt very strongly about Shasta's guilt. So it's definitely the most logical choice.

And remember back on day 1 and Agan had that idea that whoever gets stunned should come forward the next Day, but then I said that the BW could just say it was him if the Night kill was the stun choice, and so the plan went out the window? Well since we all know I'm not the BW, and since there was no Night kill anyways you can trust this: I got stunned last Night, so that, along with any hints over who may have been a Night 2 kill choice, could help us narrow down who the BW is.

Now I need to sleep....so badly....I'll try to show up as much as I can later.

x'ed with Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

if he is innocent then that would be a very annoying situation for him

Yeah, almost as annoying as a Day 1 lynch as the Seer for clarifying a rule for someone.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Of course, it is true that EW is inexperienced, and might not have taken into consideration how things would look after he died. All I can say, my flawless diamond, is that in that case we're going to need to add a "Tips for Newbie Seers" section to the Guidelines thread.

There's always a chance TEW was an inexperienced Seer who unintentionally misled us, sure. But I see no other logical way to interpret what we've been left with than Shasta is a wolf.

x/d with Wilwa and Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

There's always a chance TEW was an inexperienced Seer who unintentionally misled us, sure. But I see no other logical way to interpret what we've been left with than Shasta is a wolf.

x/d with Wilwa and Shasta

No one has said why my theory is illogical. I think it's just that you've already closed off to anything I have to say. Maybe if I have Nerwen copy-paste everything I say...?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Looked like flippancy to me. EW said this about Eomer -

- does this, by implication, mean Eomer's a wolf?

- does this, by implication, mean Eomer's a wolf?

Answer - no. I don't see why situation A apparently gives results B and C just because of a slight change in unrelated variable D.

Actually, it might have been a subtle accusation– if that's all EW had said in his vote-post. But in fact he had had just taken pains to make it clear that he did not have any special knowledge of Eomer's role.

Here's the rest of it:

Originally Posted by EW

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta at #386.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually, it might have been a subtle accusation– if that's all EW had said in his vote-post. But in fact he had had just taken pains to make it clear that he did not have any special knowledge of Eomer's role.

Here's the rest of it:

And that's why I think he dreamt Eomer on last night - otherwise he'd still have been on him yesterDay! He didn't mention Eomer at all, which to me says only one thing - he found him innocent another way. There's no other reason for EW to have dropped Eomer as a suspect so totally and completely.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

No one has said why my theory is illogical. I think it's just that you've already closed off to anything I have to say.

No, your theory isn't illogical. It's just that the alternative makes more sense.

EDIT:X'd with Shasta.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And that's why I think he dreamt Eomer on last night - otherwise he'd still have been on him yesterDay! He didn't mention Eomer at all, which to me says only one thing - he found him innocent another way. There's no other reason for EW to have dropped Eomer as a suspect so totally and completely.

Unless he'd dreamt you, of course. I mean, he only made one post yesterDay anyway– he just turned up, voted and disappeared. The previous Day he specially mentioned that he no longer suspected Volo–

Originally Posted by EW

I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration.

But yesterDay EW didn't bother to clear Eomer. I wouldn't say he "totally and completely" dropped him as a suspect– rather, we just don't know what he thought about anyone except you and Lottie yesterDay.

My radiant star, wouldn't this game-plan that you ascribe to our late Seer, of always voting for the person he planned to dream that Night, require him to give some hint of the result next Day? Wouldn't that be the point of it?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Unless he'd dreamt you, of course. I mean, he only made one post yesterDay anyway– he just turned up, voted and disappeared. The previous Day he specially mentioned that he no longer suspected Volo–

But yesterDay EW didn't bother to clear Eomer. I wouldn't say he "totally and completely" dropped him as a suspect– rather, we just don't know what he thought about anyone except you and Lottie yesterDay.

My radiant star, wouldn't this game-plan that you ascribe to our late Seer, of always voting for the person he planned to dream that Night, require him to give some hint of the result next Day? Wouldn't that be the point of it?

It would indeed, light of the east, if one planned to make more than one post per day. I think it was pretty obvious that EW was pressed for time, no?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sally practically ignores the whole Shasta thing and just votes for Aganzir, even this early. Would a wolfy Sally be so obviously wolfy?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Yeah, almost as annoying as a Day 1 lynch as the Seer for clarifying a rule for someone.

Hmm, and about that same game, after we did lynch you, we went after Pitch because you had expressed so much suspicion for him, so we assumed he must have been your dream. But he hadn't been, he was innocent. So yeah, it's very possible that he never dreamt you, but since he dreamt only innocents he needed someone to suspect, so in his busy rush he picked you. BUT, he went after you really hard, it wasn't just a "I think he might be guilty, but maybe not" thing like when he voted Eomer, it was a "die wolfie die" thing.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Sally practically ignores the whole Shasta thing and just votes for Aganzir, even this early. Would a wolfy Sally be so obviously wolfy?

A cranky Sally is cranky that everyone is letting the evil one live. Besides, you've proven my point. The only discussion toDay is going to be about Shasta, which is letting the other wolves (or all the wolves, if he isn't one, and don't even get me started on the BW) get another Day free and clear. I'm not happy about that.

Also, for what it's worth, I know I've had major hunches as seer before, and acted on them because I didn't have anything else to go on at the time. Perhaps EW did the same thing; he may have cleared only innocents, or most of his dreams could have been dead. I'm not saying it's the case, but I've seen other seers go 'WOLF, DIE, I KEEL YOU' and it's just a major hunch because they've eliminated other suspects and thus see the person they're voting for as an obvious choice. Of course, it's a bit early in the game for that type of strategy, so either way is possible, but it's something to consider.

Also also, if Shasta does turn up innocent, we know who else we need to look at. I'm not saying that following possible seer hints is a bad idea, but when that's all people will talk about, without allowing for doubt or other suspicion, it makes me think that they either feel threatened or that they're preparing to sacrifice and innocent. Just something to consider should Shasta be good in the end, as I do so love to prepare for every possibility.


Also also....also, apologies. I fell asleep last night and now I need to get off to work. I may be around when/if I go somewhere for lunch, but other than that I won't be back until right before the deadline. Please have more discussion while I'm gone, and please don't make it all about Shasta. Thanks.


P.S. I just woke up, so I'm sorry if this is rambly and a bit nonsensical. :/

x'd with Muffin

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sally,

Day had been going only a couple of hours and Shasta had been arguing pretty forcefully. Why shouldn't we concentrate on sorting that out?

Also, why are you so sure Aganzir is guilty? Why vote so early? You're behaving pretty strangely.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Sally,

Day had been going only a couple of hours and Shasta had been arguing pretty forcefully. Why shouldn't we concentrate on sorting that out?

Also, why are you so sure Aganzir is guilty? Why vote so early? You're behaving pretty strangely.

The Day's over halfway over, and no one has discussed anything else. Again, try again. If he's a wolf, lynch him and move on. Otherwise he can just argue all Day and you'll ignore everyone else in the village.

Because she is. It's her attitude, the way she's going after me for suspecting her (which she has consistently done when she's guilty, whereas when she's innocent she sort of agrees to disagree), and the way that no one else is paying her any mind. And I'm not entirely sure I'll be back (I may work late, etc.), so I don't want to wait to vote when I already know who I'll be voting for.

I'm behaving strangely? I'm behaving rationally. You're refusing to see anything but the evidence the seer has HANDED you. Use your brain. Accuse someone else toDay, rather than just blindly following the seer's (possible) dreams. That's all I ask.


And I'm now severely late for work. Crap. Best be off. :/