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10-18-2009, 06:58 AM | #361 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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I did not claim in my last post that I never suspected her, and in saying that I did ("outright denying that you ever suspected her") you are seriously distorting what I did say.
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10-18-2009, 07:01 AM | #362 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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In the card game, it's entirely verbal. There are no posts to go over and analyze. What someone said is entirely dependent on how well others remember it. Ergo, analysis is rather pointless. People just suspect each other. The Day and Night periods are also significantly shorter, for obvious reasons, meaning there's less time to really consider who you're voting for.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
10-18-2009, 07:05 AM | #363 | |
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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10-18-2009, 07:13 AM | #364 |
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It occurs to me that we currently have 4 knowns now (assuming we all believe Crayon, which I do, as I don't think two wolves would false reveal- it's suicidal). Plus two people with a 50/50 of being a wolf. (Whether we get a wolf toDay or not, we should definitely start looking at those two toMorrow, as the numbers game will begin to shift away from our favor.)
Those are really good odds for us. I feel rather optimistic now.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
10-18-2009, 07:21 AM | #365 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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EDIT:X'd with Roa.
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10-18-2009, 07:23 AM | #366 | ||||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
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Okay, but apart from those two reconsiderings, Quote:
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It's nice to see Nerwen posting, by the way, I don't know what to make of her, though, yet. Remains sort of in the gray zone for me now. Brinniel, on the other hand, looks genuine to me by her last post, and I am sort of worried about the bandwaggon forming against her. I am not going to vote her toDay, most probably. Quote:
As for the revelation itself. Okay, you say you have played WW at least in the cards, right, so I can imagine the habits might be different, I can see how it could make sense to reveal there, though it's not a habit for the Hunter to reveal here, usually. The point is that now the Wolves are going to avoid killing you, as they might target you. But okay, I am sort of able to accept this. Actually, I would ask another Changed, if there is any, to counter-claim. Because then, we will definitely know if there is somebody lying in here. So actully, quite a good move. EDIT: x-ed since wilwa 358 or something like that at the bottom of the last page
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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10-18-2009, 07:26 AM | #367 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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EDIT:X'd with Legate.
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10-18-2009, 07:26 AM | #368 | |
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As it is, you failed to explain this then, and now you're only coming up with it as you're being questioned. Your initial reaction was to say that never considered voting Nienna, then when presented with direct evidence to the contrary you admit it. You should have just admitted it from the start. Edit: crossed
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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10-18-2009, 07:34 AM | #369 |
Wight of the Old Forest
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Hi, I'm back. Brinn's first post toDay sounds genuine to me (and being a slow and over-polishing writer myself, I sympathize with her cross-posting problems). Cray's as well, though I don't think his reveal was the brightest thing to do. I mean, in the improbable case that the wolves would go for another no-trail-kill rather than get rid of me toNight, wouldn't it have been very convenient for us if they'd hit the Hunter and he'd taken one of them down with him? That's not very likely to happen now. On the good side, we can treat him as probably innocent for now (unless there's yet another counter-reveal), which narrows down the number of suspects.
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10-18-2009, 07:37 AM | #370 | |||
Wisest of the Noldor
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Roa, for the last time, I did not say that. You keep saying I said it, but I didn't. She was one of the people I considered voting, but I did not, as you put it "change my mind" because I had never made it up in the first place. This is getting frustrating. EDIT:X'd with Pitchwife.
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10-18-2009, 07:42 AM | #371 |
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I have to leave for church. I'm not buying Nerwen's defense. I think she's frustrated because she's a wolf and can't talk her way out of it.
++Nerwen In your very first post you said that you never said you were going to vote for Nienna. That statement implies that you were never considering it, which is a clear lie. Your posts at the end of Day 2, when you said you were discounting Nienna and were no longer sure of who to vote for make it clear that she was your top candidate. By your own admission, you changed your mind because she was going to get lynched. So try to wiggle all you can, your own words have trapped you.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
10-18-2009, 07:47 AM | #372 | ||
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EDIT: x-ed witch Pitchwife of Dunwich <= haha, a typo, I am leaving it there - and further on
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10-18-2009, 07:52 AM | #373 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Fine, vote me then.
I hope anyone who is being swayed by Roa will actually check out my post (#351) where I supposedly told all these "lies", and note that I didn't. I honestly don't understand where Roa's coming from. She seems to believe that once you raise enough points against another player, you are then committed to voting that person. EDIT:X'd with Legate.
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10-18-2009, 07:55 AM | #374 |
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Okay, basically, of all the people, whom I could vote for toDay, after eliminating those I have eliminated in my earlier posts toDay, it's either Lari or Nerwen for me to vote toDay. That sounds quite good, to choose just from two people. Let's see if I have time to check the posts of both of them.
I can also check the votes this far, for that matter. If I have time now, let's see. EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
10-18-2009, 07:56 AM | #375 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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EDIT:X'd with Legate.
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10-18-2009, 07:59 AM | #376 | |
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Anyway, let's see what now. EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen. Yup.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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10-18-2009, 08:10 AM | #377 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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By the way, Roa, since you have made direct statements about what I said which are demonstrably false, I should say that if either of us is "lying", it's you.
Anyway– leaving aside the gifted claimants and the known innocent, we have (from my point of view): Inziladun Loslote Roa Legate Lairen Shadow Brinn So it's either Wolflote stumbling through her cubhood, or it's Roa Awolfe getting over confident, or it's Inzilawolf being a little too slick for his own good, or it's somebody else very sneaky indeed. I keep thinking that the "why didn't they kill the Seer?" business ought to shed some light on this... as I said, the wolves really should have tried for the Seer last Night; why didn't they? EDIT:X'd with Legate.
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10-18-2009, 08:12 AM | #378 |
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Votes so far:
Hakon -> wilwa Lottie -> Brinn Cray -> Inzil wilwa -> Brinn (2) Roa -> Nerwen Two votes for Brinn. First from Lottie, whom I have the most doubts about at the moment, second from wilwa, who is a wolf if she isn't the Priest. Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?
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10-18-2009, 08:37 AM | #379 | |
Gruesome Spectre
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I found the interchange between Roa and Nerwen interesting. I don't know Roa that well, but I did find her zeal a bit disconcerting, though she made some good points. She seems to put a lot of stock into reading into Nerwen's 'implications', though, and implications are a pretty subjective thing to try and glean. Of the two of them, it's hard to say who I trust more. I might lean toward Nerwen somewhat at the moment. My early feeling about Legate has pretty much dissipated, and now I don't have a read on him one way or the other. I'll have to pay more attantion to him, though. Brinn's defense against Loslote could go either way: as a wolf's overly defensive reaction, or an innocent's honest frustration. I don't think I'll vote for her toDay, but she will bear some watching. Which leads me back to Loslote. Her analysis of Brinn didn't help her in my eyes. It did appear that she took a lot of Brinn's words and turned them a bit, and she keeps saying Brinn finds everyone 'paranoid', when I at least thought that first post of Brinn's plainly tongue-in-cheek. That said, Loslote is probably my vote today.
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10-18-2009, 08:43 AM | #380 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Mind you, Brinn has been under the radar, as usual, and she can be one sneaky wolf. However, while Wilwa might have cause to be paranoid about her, I doubt Lottie knows her reputation. But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before? EDIT:X'd with Inziladun.
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10-18-2009, 08:48 AM | #381 | |
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I would think a Wolfwa probably wouldn't have though.
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10-18-2009, 08:54 AM | #382 | |
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On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents. (x-ed w/ Zil)
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10-18-2009, 08:57 AM | #383 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Sorry... I've spent my day filing my papers and planning the courses and immersed in it so totally I actually forgot the DL is within an hour...
Well, I'll catch up with the latest (I popped in to read some of the posts at noon) and try to make my best then. The Roalysis may not be forthcoming toDay but I might have a chance for it toMorrow... what the wolves decide that is. (and we'd really need a Legatelysis as well... ) *delves into to the thread*
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10-18-2009, 09:02 AM | #384 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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That's not the point. I don't think the wolves in either of those games took a drastic step that was almost calculated to leave the newbie as the last survivor. It just turned out that way. EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.
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10-18-2009, 09:05 AM | #385 |
Wisest of the Noldor
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(Still responding to Pitchwife)
However, that's also a good point, in that they might have thought, "Well, it's worked before..."
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
10-18-2009, 09:10 AM | #386 | ||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Sorry, but I'm going to send them as I read... So no structure but just points I notice while I go over the posts...
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10-18-2009, 09:27 AM | #387 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? Revealing as the Changed/Hunter is not something that they really want to broadcast, at least I didn't when I was the Hunter. Especially in this game where I think, if I read correctly, the Changed takes someone with them no matter what their role is. It becomes a boon for the wolves because they get to kill two innocents instead of one if they are going to play the risky game of "maybe he's not hunting one of us".
So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws. I was just looking for something suspicious on Day 1, see if the wolves slipped, and well I guess SPM did. I think a Legate analysis is in order for toMorrow. Brinn's response to Lottie(is that ok for a nickname?) seems rather innocent to me. She just got feed up with the bad claims and wanted to make it right. I don't see that as really guilty, especially with the tone she uses. Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf. And what of our Rangers? I still really don't like Hakon, I don't like how he makes bold statements then reasons them away without changing them. Why state that Morsul is a wolf in the first sentence only to change it your opinion by the end? I'm beginning to think this is a wolf trying to somehow protect his Agent or a wolf protecting his packmate. Either way I think Hakon is the liar. So, before I run off, ++Hakon
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Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 10-18-2009 at 09:27 AM. Reason: x-posted with Nog |
10-18-2009, 09:30 AM | #388 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Nerwen makes some sense in refuting some of Roa's analysis as I think Roa did exaggerate with the "case". But that's a tough one to call. I don't think Nerwen ever "downright denied" having suspected Nienna so the question still is over how serious she were and what were her motives in the change of target... Brinn's more heated defence over Loslote's analysis looks quite credible indeed. Or then it's just the wolf-nerves... Why are you voting for Hakon, Lari???
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10-18-2009, 09:30 AM | #389 |
Wight of the Old Forest
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Memo for toMorrow in case I don't make it thru the Night
I think toMorrow will be time to start sorting out our Priest claimants. Based on what they've said about their protections up to now, and assuming they told the truth:
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10-18-2009, 09:34 AM | #390 | ||||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
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I did not get the chance, alas, to properly re-read neither Nerwen's or Lari's posts. Not sure what to do. If Loslote is going to be lynched, I would not oppose it, probably, as I think there is a distinct chance that she could be the Wolf, but I am not going to vote her, most likely. Okay, I will really try to reread something and then see. EDIT: x-ed with Lari and onwards
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10-18-2009, 09:39 AM | #391 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
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A wolf who reveals as the Hunter also reveals to the Hunter, if you see what I mean. Then there's no "maybe" about who the Hunter targets. Crayon says he's only played the card game before, but I imagine that aspect would be the same. Quote:
So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn? EDIT:X'd since Lari.
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10-18-2009, 09:40 AM | #392 |
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Hmm...another reveal. You know, one of the points about being gifted is to stay hidden. If Hakon is the true ranger, that means all three of our gifteds revealed unprompted, which is a bit insane. Anyway, I'll believe Cray so long as there is no counter-reveal, and I doubt there will be.
I'm hoping that Legate is in fact innocent, as nothing he's said so far sounds the slightest bit suspicious to me. He seems genuine so far, so for now I'll say he's innocentish, though I won't go as far as to trust him or anyone for that matter unless they're known innocents. As for our two rangers, I'm really stuck in between as to which one is the real one since both have done some suspicious stuff. Again I'm leaving them both alone hoping it'll sort itself out. But if it doesn't soon, we may just have to do something about it. Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption. Inzil isn't off my suspect list, though I'm still uncertain about him. However toDay he seems to be fairly neutral on some issues, or at least he has been in his recent posts. Not completely taking one side or the other is an easy move for a wolf...though of course it's not unknown for innocents to do that too. But right now I'm more concerned about Loslote, whose analysis I still can't shake off. I just have trouble seeing how any honest player could come up with such a skewed analysis. It makes me very concerned about her. The only reason I'm slightly hesitant is because of Spm's case and vote against her on Day One. Though it would be a mistake to completely eliminate her as a possible wolf for that reason since a wolf-on-wolf vote on Day One is certainly not unheard of. I wish I could hear from her again toDay, but unfortunately that won't be happening since she'll still be asleep at deadline. EDIT: x-ed with several posts
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10-18-2009, 09:42 AM | #393 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Okay, I finally made it.
Roa looks a bit over the top and I wouldn't lynch Nerwen toDay based on that. That doesn't mean I think Nerwen has to be innocent though. I might echo Legate in not being against lynching Loslote as her posting looks so hard to follow at times. She could distract us more than help if we have to think about it all the time whether she's just not able to read what others say or is intentionally twisting things to make her arguments... And she coulsd well be the wolf as well as any other. (heh, nice to be a known innocent to finally be able to say this kind of a thing which would have gotten me lynched in another situation... ) And some of her posts sure look suspicious... like the posts of many others...
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10-18-2009, 09:42 AM | #394 |
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Right, then.
++ Loslote My best guess at this point. x'd with Brinn and Nog
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10-18-2009, 09:44 AM | #395 |
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DL approaching... might as well get this over with.
++Loslote Not for any seerish reasons, obviously, and it may be tunnel vision on my part, but she's still the one I feel most uncomfortable about, mostly because of her votes based on clear misrepresentations in the cases of Nog and Brinn. (x-ed w/ Nerwen #391 etc.)
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10-18-2009, 09:49 AM | #396 | ||
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Okay, it would really help me to make a better picture of Lari if I knew how much she actually is really around and has time to properly absorb what's happening on the thread and how much is intentional misinterpretation of stuff (that goes for both of the above quotes, for example). I sort of don't like her approach to the disputes of Brinn or Roa etc., as it looks somehow too "balanced", like, this reserved attitude a Wolf could have to strike to one of the parties, if need be. Also, her vote for Hakon is undeniably "safe". Let us remember that we have seemingly a last Wolf somewhere in the field and the RangerWolf. It is far too easy to cast a vote for one of the Rangers and not worry about anything else. (That's also what Hakon did.) Though then again, would a Wolf do such a thing? Isn't it too much obviously sticking out of the crowd by giving an obvious throwaway vote? Not much time. I guess I cannot reread like I wanted. I may vote Lari. But let's see if, or more likely what, did I crosspost with... EDIT: of course x-ed since my last. Okay, let's see.
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10-18-2009, 09:49 AM | #397 |
Reflection of Darkness
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Pitchwife, if you are killed, I will not assume one way or another about the rangers. Because the real ranger could've easily bluffed at some point. wilwa said she protected you the Night before, but she might've said that so the wolves would try to kill you the next Night only to be protected. And in the same way, just because Hakon said he'd protect you last Night doesn't mean he did. If he thought the wolves wouldn't risk it, he could've made a bluff and protected someone else. Really there's no way to know who the real ranger is until one is dead.
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10-18-2009, 09:51 AM | #398 |
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Hence my assuming they told the truth.
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10-18-2009, 09:53 AM | #399 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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And we should probably solve the "ranger mystery" toMorrow...
I don't want to see Roa, Legate, Brinn or Nerwen lynched toDay as they can make sense - and be caught form their words. Also we should not touch Hakon, wilwa or Morsul Leaving Pitchie out as well... and Crayon, I'd have: Loslote Inzil Lari To choose from. Inzil is the hard one as there are things both ways with him. There's the Lari - wilwa connection I spotted on Day1 and have not totally forgotten. Also Lari's vote toDay was odd indeed (whatever that might then mean). With Loslote I'm just mostly worried. She might be a distracted innocent to be sure but it is very hard to get a read on her odd analysis / reasonings - which feel malicious at worst.
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10-18-2009, 09:56 AM | #400 | |
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Interesting note, of course could be just bad wording, but could be a nice slip. Could as well give it a try to lynch Lari, really, also with this. Though it looks like Loslote is going for the gallows now.
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EDIT: x-ed since my last. Btw can anybody give a vote count anyway?
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