WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Firefoot]

If I were the Ranger, I'd probably pick Diamond. The general consensus seems to be that she's probably innocent (at least, she hasn't come under much suspicion); I think she's probably innocent, anyway. I would not pick Ang or Valier because of the suspicion they've been under. My hunter pick would probably be Valier. (surprise, surprise.) Then probably Spawn or Ang. Not Diamond or Encai, and probably not Roa.

Tomorrow (RL), I promise I'll try to "zero-out" on Valier and at least look at some other people. But I feel so paranoid about her right now, it would almost be a relief for her not to be in the village. I would feel like I could actually concentrate on other people honestly (if she's not a wolf, of course).

[Valier]

Alright Phantom.....I would pick Roa-Aoife for my Ranger pick and for my Hunter pick I would pick Anguirel. But I wouldn't doubt it if Ang doesn't pick the Phantom to kill, again tonight. Why would he? So instead of picking him tonight for your hunter pick I say we lynch him today and if all my suspicions are wrong and he is an Ordo and not the Emperor I will commit suicide and vote for myself the next day.

[Roa_Aoife]

Ack! Sorry, got called away. I'm going to finish my quote postings now. Next up is Spawn.

[Roa_Aoife]

Spawn speaks

About Valier:

As has been pointed out, it was funny how Valier right away said that Boro is definitely a WP. She suspected almost everyone else, too, but didn't directly say them to be WPs. Enca was the only one that Valier didn't accuse right away, but said that she doesn't know if Enca is guilty or not.

All in all, by reading Valier's posts I think she is usually more independent. She makes decisions based on gut feelings, states whom she suspects and votes. Now she seems to be trying to sway and take contact with other villagers more.

The obvious conclusion of this is that Valier is the last penguin and she didn't want to get killed by the hunter. Another option is that this was an attempt to frame her up.

About Roa:

Roa has posted only once, and even though I could have made a case out of that, I wanted to see if there would be something funny in her other posts, too, or if it was just a first post thing before I accuse her.

It's interesting, too, that Boromir refrained from giving his thoughts about Roa in that post, but just explained what a theory is. Right now Roa isn't very high in my suspicion list, though.

About Ang:

All in all, Ang has been more, well, not necessarily flip-floppy, but careful than what I would have thought. I don't get the usual innocent feeling when reading his posts, and having no certain opinion about anything looks penguinesque, so I look forward to his future posts.

Anguirel, you are far from a bore, you know that, but that wasn't the point. Also, not everything I write is meant to accuse. This, for example...

Now that Ang has started talking again, my suspicions of him have partly returned, but considering how Boro acted regarding him makes me hesitate.

Again, I'm suspicious of Ang. In addition to what I've said earlier, I think the way Boro spoke about him looks like an avian alliance.

[Valier]

I just realized that I didn't post any reasons for my picks so I thought I would do it now. Ok to me Roa seems innocent. She has been helpful and I just get the feeling she is an ordo. So I would not vote for her and if I were the ranger I would pick her to protect. As for Ang, he has pushed for either known gifteds or people who I think are Ordos. His lack of evidence has been low and he states over and over the person he wants to kill and out loud hopes others will follow.Also Ang's post #317 is very odd as his vote for Enca. Why would he want to try and start a Enca bandwagon, instead of just voting for Diamond like he said he was going to?

[Roa_Aoife]

As this is me, I fully expect people to go back and check that I'm being accurate about myself. In fact, it'd be best if someone looked and came back on with a "Yeah, it's all clear," or a "No, you left this out."

Roa quotes

Valier

While I don't trust Valier any more than the rest of you (excluding phantom), I would like to point out that Valier never has distinct reasons for finding someone suspicious, and always goes by gut instinct. Always. And she's frighteningly accurate with her gut instincts. So, if you're looking for something to condemn her with, that ain't gonna cut it. Now, her changing her mind suddenly about someone is something worth mentioning, since I've never known her to give up a pursuit once she's after someone.

Even if Boromir wasn't planning to die, such a connection is incredibly obvious. He had to be aware of the possibility of his death, and know that this owuld be looked at later. It seems like an attempt to point a big finger at Valier. From this alone, I would say no.

The major flaw in Firefoot's attack on Valier is this- her whole case is based on the assumption the Valier is a penguin. There isn't a single piece of solid, unbiased evidence in it. It's all speculation, which is no case at all. Phantom's case against Valier had facts in it; Diamond's case against Vailer had facts in it. Firefoot's case is sorely lacking these, and that is something I know she isn't known for doing when innocent.

And, really, attacking Valier because she used her gut is like attacking anyone for playing the same way they usually do. Sure it could be a great cover, but that doesn't mean it is.

Spawn

I think he was looking for people to suspect (always a problem as a wolf) and then backed off because he was leaching off her case against Ang.

Ang

And how do you know I "barking up the wrong tree?" Have you considered that I might be right? You seem to be assuming my innocense- a dangerous thing to do in this game.

Well, it started with Ang, previous to Lal's reveal, who decided to try to lynch Kitanna to save both Boromir and Lal.

Two of the people Boromir suspected are known innocents. This casts a bit of spotlight on myself and Ang. I know I'm innocent, but no one else does (except the wolves) but is Boromir the type of wolf to cast suspicion on a comrade or the kind to direct attention away from his comrades? I wouldn't be surprised if it was the former, since that's what I would do, but if it is the latter, then I'd like to be able to put Ang on my "slightly less suspicious list" since it's kind of short at the moment.

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=243

I would like to note that, in my own personal perspective, I hesitate to find Ang guilty. Here's why- Boromir, our known wolf, put him in the most suspected list with Lal, Kitanna, and myself. We know that Lal and Kitanna are innocent, and I know I'm innocent. Given Boromir's past behavior concerning his fellow wolves, it would seem unlikely that he would put him on the suspected list if he were actually a wolf.

However, I do know that several players like to "change it up" a bit when repeating a role, and Boromir may have changed his play. That's why I'm not ruling Ang out.

It seems more like Boromir was jumping onto a good looking case.

[Diamond18]

Alright, first of all, I'm dead tired. I've been up since 6:30 AM and was at work blah blah blah so I'm listing to the side, as it were.

Strange as I feel about this, I could almost echo Valier's feelings on Ang at the moment. I have been thinking of Ang as more or less innocent for a few days, and when I question myself as to what my chief reason is, it is pretty much only because of where he falls on the List of What Boro Said. Much as I think it's a good theory and has so far proven true, not good enough reason to keep giving Ang a free pass in my mind. Free passes lead to ignoble deaths.

I had wanted to do an actual analysis of Ang's posts today (or, overNight) but I never did. The one thing that is making me leery of him is his obsession with me. Although so charmingly put, with the Audreyfication and all, I really don't understand his need to find everything I say suspicious even if he admits it's not in and of itself suspicious. So, apparently, earlier I was suspicious for being too Dimwë, and lately I've been suspicious for making too much sense. Either Ang is really stubborn in his belief that I'm a penguin, or is a penguin who doesn't know when to give up on a framing. This is my reason to want to take a closer look at Ang. At this moment I can't find it in my logical self to vote for him for this, because I realize that I always find anyone who goes after me to be suspicious, so someone who goes after me and practically begs the the rest of the village to do so as well....

But, I think I would Hunt him were I the Hunter. If I was the Hunter and Day was ending in the next few minutes, I would vote to lynch Valier to be sure, and if she were innocent, pick Ang to Hunt. If I were the Ranger, I would protect Roa. I've already given my opinion/prediction on Roa, so you know why.

However, that opinion may change before the Day actually ends. Right now I'm ridiculously tired and I didn't even have the energy to read over the quotes Roa has been posting much less analyze Ang or review the Day 3 posts. I also have to take into account that Spawn is still around -- and I'm not sure what Naria's vote for her yesterDay meant and I don't want to just drop her from my consciousness and get totally distracted by Ang and Valier. There's just so much to think about, and it's not my best day in this village. I'll be leaving 4 1/2 hours before the deadline tomorrow, so will be voting early. Now, I'm wondering if I should try to follow through with reviewing and analyzing tonight, just to make sure I get it done, or go to bed early in hopes of having more brainpower to do so tomorrow.

[Encaitare]

This is the current list of players left alive (just so everyone knows who their choices are for the Hunter/Ranger thing):

Valier
Diamond18
Firefoot
Roa
Phantom (innocent)
Dancing Spawn
Kitanna
Encaitare
Anguirel


If I were the Ranger, I would choose to protect Roa because I believe she is innocent (goodness, how many times have I said this? ), for reasons already stated and because her work with going back and looking for all those quotes seems genuine to me.

If I were the Hunter, I would choose Anguirel or Valier because they tend to be the subjects of greatest dispute . If I had to pick one, it would be Valier -- of the two, she seems more suspicious to me.

[Roa_Aoife]

Ang's quotes

Valier

Valier's behaviour is normal and not that suspicious.

Yep. Thanks Valier, I know I can always rely on you to cheer me up.

Which is why I don't intend to seal any fates now...I'm really not convinced of the innocence or guilt of either Jenny or Valier. I would vote for Jenny before Valier, if you want my opinion, but in this case I'm sticking to my crumbling Crimean guns.

Valier-as a wolf she is a hardy lieutenant who is often quite hard to catch; for the reasons Diamond raised, that her tactics are so consistent. In this case, I'm not entirely sure. I was more willing to absolve her yesterday. The fact that Diamond was pretty much urging her to the gibbet is in my mind some kind of evidence in her favour. But there are troubles here. Her "instincts" do seem slightly affected by realpolitick-what she can realistically hope to achieve according to the fluctuations of public opinion. Hence she has laid off the generally trusted Macalaure, concentrated fire especially on me, and now, it must be said, seems to transfer some energy to Firefoot and Eonwe. Not sure, but I won't vote for her unless some of my clearer theories are derailed.

I also am still uncertain about Valier's guilt and, to be frank, think Enca's potential bandwagon one of the few able to withstand the anti Valier movement.

Spawn

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...7&postcount=44

Oh, and that stuff about dragging Spawnowen through the coals about Firefoot and Roa and then disingenuously claiming I wasn't accusing her for it is a good sighting by you, but it was, sort of, intended as a joke.

Spawnowen-is to Diamond what Diamond is to me-a pet lynching project. I think though that Diamond may have more success than I. Still, spawn is much more on the ball now. Her contribution in the case against Valier was just as important as Diamond's-am I getting it right?-so perhaps in fairness I should suspect her too, but she seems to be playing things straighter. Suspects Macalaure, seriously off the beaten path and so giving her some cred. Talking of which...

Roa

But Roa's case-as Lalaith overlooked in her relief in finding an ally, but as Boromir pointed out-is fairly flimsy, based on a contradiction that does not exist. This seems to be a genuine misunderstanding and so I am inclined to spare the rod here.

You conveniently didn't address it. Face it, you've got something wrong. There was no essential contradiction. Now please, prune your pride and have a glance elsewhere-you're really good value when you're not barking up the proverbial errant tree.

I know my performance looks like a one-track advance today, but I have also examined Roa a bit and she still seems a figure exuding fewer Machiavellian vibes.

Roa-I get the malaise when approaching her that affects me when dealing with the especially loud. Like verbal earache. But I'm going to press on. Yesterday I regarded her as next most worth an Inquisition after Diamond. She does go for elaborately documented and apparently impartial, fairminded cases. She criticises me, incidentally, for openly looking for reasons to blame people. She has a point, but that's not quite what I do, though it sometimes looks like it

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

As this is me, I fully expect people to go back and check that I'm being accurate about myself. In fact, it'd be best if someone looked and came back on with a "Yeah, it's all clear," or a "No, you left this out."

Well that someone won't be me, though I would if I could.

But that reminds me, Spawn you said I'd omitted something from my analysis of you. Was that an entire post or a part of a post? If I left an entire post out, it was probably just because I missed it. I thought I'd counted up all the posts I linked to and compared them to your total post count and it matched, but who knows. I think I did a lot of analysis that Day which doesn't do wonders for my accuracy. At any rate, if it ends up mattering anymore (i.e. if I vote for you) I'll be sure to figure out just where the omission was in my analysis and explain it. I have this feeling like either Valier or Ang is going to sucumb toDay, though, so it might be an academic point for toDay at least.

*sigh* Am I making any sense?

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, that's done. I've noticed some unpleasant things while going back- Spawn's position on my many lists doesn't look very good. Also, did anyone else notice that she picked up Jenny's cobbler hint on Day 1? And Valier said something very similar about Spawn to what Boromir said about her. But you can't claim she flipped anout Ang.

Anyways.... Someone should go back and see what the four of us said about Naria and Boromir. I would, but I have to get up early for work and I will only be able to get back on a few hours before the deadline, and then for only a brief time.

And Diamond- to simplify for you, if I assume that Boromir didn't list his fellows together, then Ang, Spawn, Valier, and myself are the only possible suspects. I've posted as many stats and relevant quotes as I could find so that we all have a wealth of evidence to look through. Do so at your leisure.

If I have the time, I'll try to come up with a basic list of where the views of Naria and Boromir intersected with our views.

Alright then, hm... if I were the ranger, I'd probably protect Enca, since she's lowest on my list. I don't trust her, I just distrust her the least of evryone else. And as the hunter... well, I'm still worried about Firefoot. I'd probably hunt her, if I could. After her, Spawn, just for the sake of knowing. Certainly one of the other 3.

[Roa_Aoife]

And just because I wanted to:

Originally Posted by Ang

Face it, you've got something wrong. There was no essential contradiction.

*blows rasberry* How 'bout them apples?! Got something wrong, eh? Tell that to Boromir's feathered corpse!

Ah, it's nice to have a moral victory.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And Diamond- to simplify for you, if I assume that Boromir didn't list his fellows together, then Ang, Spawn, Valier, and myself are the only possible suspects. I've posted as many stats and relevant quotes as I could find so that we all have a wealth of evidence to look through. Do so at your leisure.

I know -- I know what you were doing, since I read everything that wasn't a quote, and I do want to study the quotes or at least read back over the thread myself. I'm just saying that my brain is rubbish at the moment and so I can't really do anything that I wanted to and actually do it right. (The only reason I'm still sitting here is because of that annoying part of me which keeps saying, "You know you won't be any smarter in the morning and you'll probably just oversleep anyway so stay up and get to work! C'mon! Sleep is for the weak!" )

[the phantom]

Yesterday's voting-

(I)=innocent, (WP)=WerePenguin

Mac (I) for Eonwe (I) ---- Eonwe (I)-1
Di for Spawn ---- Spawn-1, Eonwe (I)-1
Ang for Enca ---- Spawn-1, Enca-1, Eonwe (I)-1
Naria (WP) for Spawn ---- Spawn-2, Enca-1, Eonwe (I)-1
Spawn for Naria (WP) ---- Spawn-2, Naria (WP)-2, Enca-1, Eonwe (I)-1
Enca for Naria (WP) ---- Naria (WP)-3, Spawn-2, Enca-1, Eonwe (I)-1
tp (I) for Naria (WP) ---- Naria (WP)-4, Spawn-2, Enca-1, Eonwe (I)-1
FF for Naria (WP) ---- Naria (WP)-5, Spawn-2, Enca-1, Eonwe (I)-1
Val for Naria (WP) ---- Naria (WP)-6, Spawn-2, Enca-1, Eonwe (I)-1
Roa for FF ---- Naria WP-6, Spawn-2, Enca-1, FF-1, Eonwe (I)-1

Comments to follow in seperate post...

[the phantom]

Spawn and Naria were neck and neck early, but Naria took a solid lead after that.

Spawn and Naria voted for each other at a critical time. It made it very likely that one of them would be lynched. I've been a Werewolf with Spawn before, and I can't see her being that stupid. She would've come up with something better.

Spawn is totally off my lynch list today.

I also don't think an Enca-Penguin would boost Naria up at that point in the voting.

Firefoot is a possibility though. At that point, Naria already had a slim lead with only two votes left, and if I'm remembering right the number two vote getter at that point, Spawn, didn't look like she'd be moving up into the lead.

The same things goes for Val.

Lynching one of those two seems like a decent plan today.

I also say we put some trust in Spawn today.

[the phantom]

Here's what Naria said about various people.

Anguirel- Hmmm he's a tuff one to understand. I don't like the way that he is being so pushy with his posts especially towards people that I don't find particularly evil right now. Quite frankly some of his posts don't make any sense at all and that doesn't sit well with me.

She's acting fairly suspicious of Ang.

Spawn- I don't know. She hasn't been playing like she normally does, maybe it's due to RL but maybe not. I would expect alot more from her by now and that just hasn't happened yet. Another one that isn't sitting well with me.

She's acting somewhat suspicious of Spawn, but as I said before I'm leaving Spawn alone.

Diamond- She seems to be acting per usual. Nothing to send up red flags yet.

She's pretty much saying Di=innocent. Do you think Penguin-Naria would do that?

Enca- She has some pretty good reasoning in her posts, but I am not ready to take my eye off of her just yet.

Earlier I said that Enca's vote makes me not suspect her so much, and this comment doesn't raise a red flag.

Firefoot- I'm not sure about. She seems to be trying to give it her all, but fumbles the ball at times. Like I said....I'm not sure.

She's very wishy-washy on Firefoot. What do you think of that?

Roa- Is evil! HA....I jest of course. But, I don't trust her nonetheless....I don't know if I ever will. She's crafty beyond belief. If there is one person that can pull off a septuple bluff, I'm sure Roa could do it with ease.

I'm not sure what to make of this. I'm inclined to attribute it to events that happened in Wizard-Werewolf. Her statement definitely ends on the note that we should be wary of Roa.

Valier- She's another hard one to read. I do want to mention, however that she can be quite the asset in a village with her uncanny ability for WW spotting.

She claims Val is difficult to read, and ends on a positive note. Hmm.

[Anguirel]

You're all going to groan.

But really, everyone, why are you so quick to leap to assert the innocence of...Diamond?

She was hallowed with vague trust (the Werewolf equivalent of damning with faint praise) by Naria. Boromir also said she was more innocent than guilty. Neither of them paid special attention to her. Are we all such cynics now that the old Werewolf trick of defence by association, inference, and mild reference is forgotten? That three wolves who defend each other quietly but effectively cannot be conceived of?

She got an early vote out against Spawn, who as phantom pointed out is looking pretty rosy at the moment, which could have easily spurred off a lynching. After Boromir's death she produced the distraction of Werewolf X. She has voted for first Lalaith, our Seer (though even as a penguin she wouldn't have known that), then Valier, who I think so stubbornly misguided she can't be guilty (not unlike Farael's performance a while back) with regard to me, and to whom we owe the unmasking of Naria; then spawn, an early vote absolving her from whatever happened in the night.

As regards to accusing her for being too Dimwe and too sensible...she's not sensible, so much as influential, and on a wavelength I find myself sympathising with. This increases the danger she poses if guilty.

So, I would guard...spawn, I think, who is the next most clearly innocent after phantom in my book; and I would hunt that blasted lycan Diamond.

[the phantom]

Good thoughts, Ang.

But I have to go to bed now. I'll try to drop by in about 6 hours.

If I don't, I guarantee I'll show up about five hours before the voting deadline and stick around for a while.

[Anguirel]

Having denounced Diamond in part for her early vote, I ought to warn you that I'll probably be doing the same thing. I'm going to a Roman party tonight, setting off at 5:45. I suspect I will return to see my mangled corpse, but if you're not into attacking those who can't defend themselves you might want to consider a stay of execution.

Anyway, I'll vote at, I expect, about 4:00 o' clock. And I will try and consider other options than Diamond; it just disconcerts me that you all trust her so solidly. I'll draw up another nice, campy list with all my suspicions and theories as well, and conclude with an order of suspects for the last wolf.

I'll probably hash together a defence of myself as well, I suppose.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Generally, quotes from Boro and Naria make Firefoot look rather bad. Boro was quick to express trust in her on Day 1 in his post #14...

"Firefoot brought up useful comment on the cobbler, one which I completely forgot about, seeing as I have no remembrance of a cobbler for a very very long time now. So Firefoot I'm ok with for now, a very logical sensible person to have around."

...which is a bit odd considering that the Day just started. That was the same post where he said that Val is too strange to be a WP, but I don't know if that makes them look more innocent or guilty. Would a WP Boro proclaim his comrade innocent so early on, I wonder.

Also, her post #328 from yesterDay was interesting. Ff gave her thoughts about her voting candidates, and they all were quite vague:

"Valier: I don't know"
"Naria: (...) I don't know what to do with her"
"Encai: A lot like Valier. I don't know what to do with Encai either"
"Spawn: (...) I really don't know what to think"

It's true that she giving a fourth vote for Naria at a time when there were two votes plus her own left is a bit questionable. Firefoot's replies to Valier toDay make me wary, too, because they seem more heated that would be necessary ("Well, duh, not even the wolves know who the cobbler is (...) Why the heck would a wolf say something like that?"). I don't deny the possibility that Valier is the last penguin, but I'm not very comfortable with Ff either.


As to Ang, my impression of him hasn't changed. I'm sure an Emperor Anguirel would be capable of putting together some sound thoughts as he has done toDay, but I look forward reading more from him. One quote from Day 1, though.

"I'm not quite sure I'm so desperately guilty as charged." ~Ang #44

That's an interesting way to put it.


Hmm, Roa then. I had a dream that she was a WP, but since I'm no Seer I will happily disregard it now. She has been helpful from the beginning, and although that itself doesn't prove someone's innocence, there are plenty of more suspicious people around, too. Just one thing:

Roa, you listed yourself as a suspect of Boromir's, but at the end of the Day he seemed to lean towards your innocence. Although he said things like, "Roa, I find this act of taking things out of context and twisting really really strange did I hit a nerve?" ~ #75

...his last comments of you were:

"Roa's acts are strange but it actually in a wierd way makes her look more innocent to me. She's just being far too aggressive" ~ #85

"Roa seems more like a lost innocent than a bandwagoning penguin" ~#85


Di, it was parts of posts as I said in #304.


Now, if I had to pick the most suspicious person to hunt, I'd choose Anguirel, and I'd guard Encai because her vote makes her look rather innocent.

[Anguirel]

"I'm not quite sure I'm so desperately guilty as charged." ~Ang #44

Spawnowen, you sprightly sophist! I was talking there about boredom, not pinguescence. (That word exists, by the way. I love it.)

List et al coming when I have a breathing space.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Spawnowen, you sprightly sophist! I was talking there about boredom, not pinguescence. (That word exists, by the way. I love it.)

You were? Sorry, I guess I got confused by those tortellinis. You can never tell about pasta... I didn't suspect you for not being playful enough, and since you were answering my case about you, I thought you were referring to it. Never mind then.

[Anguirel]

Okay. Let's have the list.

Valier-Since I do not think Valier's pinguescence likely, I am going to use this partly as an opportunity to rebut her charges against me. But I'll deal with her first.

Of course, if she was a penguin, Valier wouldn't have attacked phantom. Yet it does not follow that, as phantom was not attacked, Valier must be guilty. I disagree with Firefoot that her catching of Naria makes her suspicious-I think it was a brilliant and opportune guess from the viewpoint of a villager.

However, that does not change the fact that she's been wrong about everything else. She was manifestly (apart from her first, joking, post) wrong about Boromir; wrong about Eonwe and Macalaure; and quite wrong, I assure you, about me. Valier is "intuiting", which is heightened guesswork. Her actual charge levelled at me most frequently is that I'm too "pushy". As a matter of fact, this game I've been rather off the ball, detached and laid-back, as far as I can see. None of the candidates (luckily, in some cases...Kitanna) I've backed have been lynched. Noone believes my Diamond theory. I am generally regarded as a slightly spavined hermit and a penguin into the bargain. Clearly my pushiness is of a deeply esoteric, and incompetent, kind...


Now-spawn. phantom states her vote is a reassuring one and I largely agree. Her suspicion of me for a long time seems to me pretty reasonable, and I'm almost encouraged to see it flaring up again. I would be extremely surprised were she guilty and expect the penguin will munch her pretty sharpish.

Firefoot-playing a similar, but inverted, role to spawn, Firefoot has today been an outspoken defender of me and accuser of Valier. On the one hand this is a bold move for a penguin, but on the other Valier and I provide fine distraction from her-she was also under quite a lot of suspicion yesterday. Her defence of me shows a trust in my innocence that could be born of knowledge and a desire to get me onside. She's replaced Enca as my second suspect.

Enca-I had quite a lot of confidence in Lalaith's theories regarding Enca, but few agreed with me and they are now admittedly looking a good deal less possible. Enca has been known as an adept of sacrificing fellow-penguins before, but I doubt this is one of those times. I now agree that her numeracy does show a measure of dedication, though we should bear in mind the phantom's qualification. Thus, she has fallen behind Firefoot.

Diamond-see above. I really think Diamond fulfills all the criteria for a penguin's position and behaviour at this stage, and the indifference of those around me to my thoughts and their assumption of her innocence confirms my suspicions-I feel like Fea endlessly ranting about LMP in WWIII. Besides, Diamond's recent defensive switch against me fits penguin psychology once she's lost her second mate in an occurence last night she didn't witness, and can't have expected. Look at the other penguins' opinions of her. The simple answer, in my view.

Roa-Her reaction to the Naria-bandwagon-which was founded on a leap of faith and could have been as easily wrong as right-lessens my suspicions of her, and if I'm wrong about Diamond-inconceivable! Anguirel is never wrong!-I think Roa may have pinpointed, in Firefoot, the Emperor Penguin. Her approach has been comprehensive and analytical, if at times fatiguingly so. I agree with Firefoot that she is extremely unlikely to be guilty.

But...there is always a but, and a possibility. Penguin frustration at the loss of a comrade without a case, without "intellectual integrity"? What is certain is that her Firefoot vote was possibly practical in the long-term, but in the short-term quixotic, born of irritation; but this does not, to me, point to guilt in such an accomplished operator.

There. That should be the whole lot of ye.

Oh yes, and-

++DIAMOND

Should have blasted well stayed consistent and built up pressure yesterday. I doubt I'll be listened to this time, but it's worth a try.

Now I'm off. Oh, and if you do decide to lynch me, let me give one last lute performance...

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

After Boromir's death she produced the distraction of Werewolf X.

A distraction, you call it? Excuse moi. It was Roa I believe who first requested knowledge of how Boro as a wolf played. It was tp who posted PM's from WWX. I read through the game and brought up posts that showed exactly how he behaved in relation to his fellow wolves, and pointed out the similarities to this game. If that's a distraction, as you're calling it, I must be completely wrong about where Boro would have placed his wolves in his suspicions, ergo either you or Roa are definitely wolves. Yes? And between the two of you, I know exactly who to vote for:

+ + ANGUIREL, the Cod-Rhyming PENGUIN

If not Ang, then Valier, I think, because an innocent Valier usually isn't that wrong about people.

I'm going to try and cram some more reading in to see if there's any reason I should retract before heading off to work.

[Roa_Aoife]

Roa, you listed yourself as a suspect of Boromir's, but at the end of the Day he seemed to lean towards your innocence. Although he said things like, "Roa, I find this act of taking things out of context and twisting really really strange did I hit a nerve?" ~ #75

When I said he found me suspicious on Day, he had found me suspicious. He didn't back off untill I pressed my attack on him. Also, thankyou for the quotes from Boromir. I got all the Boromir quotes that I posted from phantom's post #251 .

I'm curious- is anyone else giving credence to my idea, or do you all think I've completely lost it now and I'm getting far too deep in these whole analysis thing? I realize it may be tedious to read through (just think how tedious it was to get it) but I really do think it will help. I'm going to use the little time I have right now to make a list of where the suspicion and trust crossed between everyone.

If you want the quotes I'm using for this list, you'll have to go back and see for yourself, since I don't have time. All the crossing will obviously be up till time of death.

[Roa_Aoife]

Also, has anyone come up with an idea why it was Mac killed in phantom's place?

[Diamond18]

Okay, I've read and re-read all the quotes that have been posted toDay, and here's my feelings:

Ang - Still think there's something avian about that boy. If he is, I'll be somewhat disappointed because it will prove wrong my theory that Boro stayed true to form and put one Penguin in the "innocent" category and one in the "unsure" category. I guess I don't mind his case against me so much as the constant whinging that no one believes him and everyone trusts me and I'm weilding an inordinate amount of influence in the village. Puh. Leeze. This isn't even close to being true. There's also that odd statement to Roa on Day 1 -- backing Boro. His vote record isn't stunning, either.

Spwan -- I don't really agree with tp that Spawn and Naria wouldn't cross vote for each other. It's not stupid, it's bluffing. Sometimes bluffs work, sometimes they don't, doesn't make one stupid for trying. However I'm willing to hold off on her for toDay at least. I found it interesting to note that Naria thought me innocent and then bandwaggoned onto my Spawn vote, which if Spawn is innocent smacks of a framing of the Di should Spawn have died. Hmmm, who else wants to frame me this game, oh yeah, Ang!

Valier -- I find her posting as of late less suspicious, really. Is this a good sign for Val or a bad one? However, if Ang proves innocent then Valier's crusade against him will send her right back up there in my suspicions.

Roa -- So far I feel innocent. It is strange however to note that Boro actually described her as his "innocent" at the end of the day and she's been putting herself on "people Boro suspected" lists. If Ang, Spawn, and Valier all died innocent, would it be too late to start worrying about Roa?

Firefoot -- I don't really see the suspiciousness, actually. She's been a bit snappish, but then I remember an Innocent Firefoot giving an Innocent Diamond a backhand in Innocent Diamond's first game for suspecting her on dodgy reasoning. Also, if my theory does actually hold true, then Firefoot being on the same list as Naria excuses her somewhat.

Enca -- I don't know, I'm running out of time and apparently can't remember any of the Enca related quotes now. But she does share a spot on the "unsure" list so ditto for what I said about Firefoot in that regard.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Also, has anyone come up with an idea why it was Mac killed in phantom's place?

Either Valier is a penguin and didn't want to die, or someone else is a penguin and didn't want people to be able to rule Valier out as a suspect.

And Mac was generally trusted, so a likely alternative. I thought you were next on their hit list, personally, but.....

Oh, and I forget to put this in my last post:

Originally Posted by Ang

Spawnowen-is to Diamond what Diamond is to me-a pet lynching project.

Not even close to being true. I suspected for her one day after doing an analysis, held off voting because she wasn't around, and voted for her the next day. This hardly compares to "Diamond is Dolorous! Doesn't anyone agree with me? I disagree with her, she's evil, I agree with her, she's evil, oh woe is me won't anyone listen to my case???"

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, has anyone come up with an idea why it was Mac killed in phantom's place?

If Val isn't the last penguin, I believe Mac was chosen because he wasn't around yesterDay and he voted for Eonwe who was removed from the village anyway, so killing him left the least trails to follow.

Back to rereading...

[Roa_Aoife]

The list I made of Boromir's supects came from post #46 , which is where Boromir stated his suspicion of me. After wards, I called him on his falacy, and he backpedaled quickly as my attack showed no sign of slacking off. I've counted myself as suspected by him because I was, up until he tried to cover his rear. Hence I why I put us as "mutually suspected." If you disagree, you're free to make your own list.

I have to go, and my computer just deleted the quick cross post I had made. I don't know if I'll be back by voting, so I vote now, just in case.

And Diamond, if she back handed you for a case of faulty reasoning, then should she be backhanded for her case of faulty reasoning?

++Spawn

Just on my lists she looks the worst. I haven't made an analysis of her yet, so if I get back in time, it may change.

Edit, fixed my vote

[Valier]

Originally Posted by The Emperor

Having denounced Diamond in part for her early vote, I ought to warn you that I'll probably be doing the same thing. I'm going to a Roman party tonight, setting off at 5:45. I suspect I will return to see my mangled corpse, but if you're not into attacking those who can't defend themselves you might want to consider a stay of execution.

Anyway, I'll vote at, I expect, about 4:00 o' clock. And I will try and consider other options than Diamond; it just disconcerts me that you all trust her so solidly. I'll draw up another nice, campy list with all my suspicions and theories as well, and conclude with an order of suspects for the last wolf.

I'll probably hash together a defence of myself as well, I suppose

.


This whole post is odd!! He tries to make us feel bad, so we don't vote for him because he will not be here....laughable! He says he will consider other options besides Dia and he doesn't! He just votes for her. and what's up with him making a "campy list? are we not to be serious?

Originally Posted by the Emperor

However, that does not change the fact that she's been wrong about everything else. She was manifestly (apart from her first, joking, post) wrong about Boromir; wrong about Eonwe and Macalaure; and quite wrong, I assure you, about me. Valier is "intuiting", which is heightened guesswork. Her actual charge levelled at me most frequently is that I'm too "pushy". As a matter of fact, this game I've been rather off the ball, detached and laid-back, as far as I can see. None of the candidates (luckily, in some cases...Kitanna) I've backed have been lynched. No one believes my Diamond theory. I am generally regarded as a slightly spavined hermit and a penguin into the bargain. Clearly my pushiness is of a deeply esoteric, and incompetent, kind...

I am SURE that I am not wrong about you MR EMPEROR!!! Oh and I was not wrong about Naria either! You ? laid-back? HA you have been overly pushy!! and your vote again for Diamond is way off. Does anyone else believe her to be a penguin, but you Ang? You are grasping at straws today hey? well I guess it would be hard to come up with suspects and cases against them when you are the lone bad guy! Your Diamond bandwagon thing will not work today and you know it!! so why on earth would you not vote to actually pretend to HELP the village? YOU ARE EVIL, EVIL, EVIL!!!!!

[Valier]

uummm Roa? is that your vote? if it is it's in a quote box. I beg you please, please trust me just for today and vote to kill THE EMPEROR ANG

[the phantom]

Today, I WILL NOT be voting for-
1) Spawn
2) Enca
3) Roa
4) Ang

Spawn would be my Ranger pick for the night.

So, that means my voting choices are-
1) FF
2) Di
3) Val

My Hunter pick will probably be Valier still (haven't changed it), though I don't think I'm going to vote for her today. If she somehow ends up lynched, my pick would be FF.

The following list is just a summation of all of my feelings after reading several of my own posts in which I listed and/or analyzed voting as well as analyzing Boro and Naria's words.

Proven Innocent-
the phantom

Likely Innocent-
Spawn

Leaning towards innocent-
Enca
Roa

Up in the air-
Ang

Somewhat suspcious-
Valier
Diamond

Suspicious-
Firefoot

[Valier]

*Valier holds up various picket signs*

ANG MUST GO!!

HE IS EVIL!

DO NOT LET HIM FOOL YOU!

SAVE OUR FAIR VILLAGE!!

DIE EMPEROR DIE!!

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Ang

Noone believes my Diamond theory.

Ang, if you are lynched toDay and found to be innocent, I think that people will give much more credence to your theory. Right now, it would seem that the Valier issue is more important to everyone than what would seem a personal vendetta against Diamond.

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, has anyone come up with an idea why it was Mac killed in phantom's place?

As Diamond said... because he was generally considered innocent. The more controversial villagers who remain, the easier it is for the wolf to hide. But just in case there was something more to it, I'm going over who Mac suspected through the course of the name.

Mac - post 57: wonders why Ang voted for Eonwe when Enca was even more silent

Mac - post 97: votes for Kitanna because "Kitanna to me feels worse than Lalaith"

Mac - post 113: retracts Kitanna for Boro

Mac - post 138: says Ang, Di, and Phantom are on the top half of his suspicion list; Spawn and Valier are in the lower half. Mentions how Ang defended Boromir even though Ang said the evidence against Boro is frail.

Mac - post 182: votes for Jenny, also says that Valier seems more innocent than guilty.

Mac - post 239: votes for Eonwe. Also suspects Valier, but says the loss of an innocent Eonwe is not as severe a blow as the loss of an innocent Valier.

Aaaaand... then he dies. Seeing as he barely posted all of yesterDay, it seems that the WP chose to kill him because it would leave a cold trail. Plus, the majority of players in this game have played in many games before, and therefore would know better than, as a werecreature, to kill someone who had suspected them overNight.

Oh, total side note: I just realized now that in my post 368, Kitanna obviously should not be on that list. What with her being a zombie and us having to tie her to chairs, I forgot that she's technically dead.

EDIT: Cross posted with 6 (up to and including Spawn)

[the phantom]

Here are links to some of my posts, in case it helps anyone.

DAY 1 VOTING

DAY 1 VOTING ANALYSIS

BORO QUOTES

DAY 3 VOTING

NARIA QUOTES

[the phantom]

Wow, Val is going nuts. Is that normal? I've only seen her once.

[Encaitare]

Uh-oh, looks as though Valier has a vendetta too, now. This constant reference to him as the Emperor and the CAPSLOCK post make me uneasy, as I wasn't really aware she so vehemently believed Ang to be guilty.

Originally Posted by Val, post 362

So instead of picking him tonight for your hunter pick I say we lynch him today and if all my suspicions are wrong and he is an Ordo and not the Emperor I will commit suicide and vote for myself the next day.

Could be a girl on a mission, could be a WP. We've all seen werecreatures use the "oh well I am so sure I'm right, and if I'm not you can kill me" tactic. I'm sure I've used it myself. The purpose of this tactic is to show the others just how convinced you are and make them think that a WP would never be so self-sacrificing.

Originally Posted by Val, post 391

This whole post is odd!! He tries to make us feel bad, so we don't vote for him because he will not be here....laughable! He says he will consider other options besides Dia and he doesn't! He just votes for her. and what's up with him making a "campy list? are we not to be serious?

I don't think he'd try to make us feel bad, as the absence of a player hasn't stopped us from lynching him/her before (Jenny, anyone?). The voting for Diamond... he seems pretty convinced, but that's what retractables are for. And the "campy list"... Ang hasn't been a fan of lists from the start, but I guess now he feels like he's obligated to do one.

Originally Posted by Val, post 394

*Valier holds up various picket signs*

ANG MUST GO!!

HE IS EVIL!

DO NOT LET HIM FOOL YOU!

SAVE OUR FAIR VILLAGE!!

DIE EMPEROR DIE!!

Okay... I know that Valier is the type to totally throw herself into a suspicion... I don't like it and have never liked it.

I have to run now... I'm sure I've cross-posted... I'll be back later.

[Firefoot]

I really don't know what to do with Valier now...

Okay, I'm going to go back and have a look at Diamond and Ang. I've been giving both of them a bit of a free ride till now, maybe I ought to make sure this wasn't possibly wrong of me.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by TP

Wow, Val is going nuts. Is that normal? I've only seen her once.

nuts? I like nuts! mmmmmm nuts

*scrambles to make some new protest signs*


ANG IS NUTS!! NUTS, NUTS, NUTS!

KILL, ANG NOW!

IT'S FOR YOUR OWN GOOD!

SAVE OUR VILLAGE!!