Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Roa_Aoife]

OOC- I had a small emergency that kept me busy most of yesterday, which is why I'm so late posting today. - OOC

I too was curious to see Sleepy, Celuien, and Zali alive, and Diamond dead. Thinking about it, Nogrod's explaination makes the most sense, which could mean several things.

Sleepy and Celuien are innocent, and the orcs didn't know who Zali our protector would pick to protect, so they killed Diamond (for the reasons listed by Nogrod)

Sleepy and Celuien are innocent, and the orc Zali didn't know who was protected.

Sleepy is innocent, and the orcs Celuien and Zali didn't know if he would be protected or not.

Sleepy is an orc (along with Nogrod), and intended for Zali to Celuien.

Now these are just possiblities. I personally think the dream of Sleepy was true, though Zali's continued life and constant reassertion of her status make me nervous. Not only that, but her continued statement of her surprise is sounding more and more contrived.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And if by some unprobable twist of the situation, Zali would be just a ranger impersonator, our real ranger probably should come forwards quite soon, pointing to Zali's orcishness.

I don't think I agree just yet. The village isn't in such dire straights that we need to sacrifice a gifted. Really, by your own assesment, we seem to be in a rather good position. The presence of the ranger may be keeping the orcs from going after the ones they really want to go after, like Sleepy and Celuien. If Zali isn't the ranger, then the true ranger should stay hidden a little longer. If we lynch an orc today, the reveal would probably wholly uneccessary. If we don't, then, and only then, would I say the ranger come forward.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Findeasea

Roa: I should have phrased my post a lot better. I didn’t mean that you do not contribute or state your opinions, but that your apparent helpfulness might be a distraction from giving away actual opinions which might put you in a guilty light. Hmm… I still feel like what I am trying to say is not coming out right. The best way I can think to phrase what I mean is that the root of your contributions is not exactly clear to me.

I am sorry if I called you suspicious falsely, but I just didn’t want to risk not saying anything in case my feeling was right.

Suspecting people is part of the game. (Right now the only person I don't at least midly suspect is Sleepy.) There are no hards feeling over that. I don't understand what you're saying though- I'm contributing, helping the village, definitely stating my opinions, and that makes me more suspicios? By that reasoning, Nogrod and Celuien are also highly suspicious. Please explain why I'm standing out.

Nogrod- I've found another flaw in your plan. What if Diamond was the one dreamt of last night? What if Spawn was the one dreamt of by the Shaman first? That would certainly throw a kink in your plans. For someone who accused Spawn of spreading Orcish propaganda, you seem to come up with a lot of faulty plans yourself.

Originally Posted by Celuien

*pinches self*

Still alive. I didn't expect that at all. I really thought that either Zali or I would be toast last night. Still, it's good to be here.

Why didn't you think Sleepy would die?

Originally Posted by Grendelien

I've been thinking very long and hard about who the possible Shaman could be. I have a thought, based on posts (I'm sorry this is terribly, annoyingly vague, but I think it's crucial to protect the identity of the possible Shaman), and if it turns out to be somehow miraculously correct, I believe the innocence of some unknown villagers may be confirmed.

There would be three remaining ones that I would still be unsure of- Naria, Roa, and Caranlondien.

I'm definitely not going to suspect these three right away, because I know that my thought on who the Shaman is may be very, very wrong, and therefore detrimental to the village. Unfortunately, I won't know if my thoughts are correct unless the Shaman is exposed or killed, and I'd rather be wrong than have that happen. Since I know that I could very well be wrong in my guess, I'm not going to accuse any of the three right away...but I will keep myeye on them.

I'm curious to know how you can narrow the list down so far. There have only been four nights, therefore only four dreams. One of those was of an Orc, so that leaves only 3 dreams, another was of Sleepy, so that's 2 to reveal known innocents. One was just the previous night, and the dreamer may not have arrived yet, so you really only have one to go on, from the first day. In regular games, dreams go directly to the seer, and even then, if the seer dies, we can't always interpret their posts properly. If a seer thinks someone is innocent, that doesn't mean they dreamt of them. Likewise, if a seer thinks someone is suspicious, it doesn't make them guilty. So, how, in this game, when the dreams don't necessarily go to the Shaman, are you able to narrow the list so far down, just by figuring out who the Shaman is?

[Sleepy Ranger]

Well I got back from school a long while ago but I haven't posted till yet because the 'Downs was down for me.

I'll probably do a list later but for now, Finde and Grend seem the most orcish to me.
All of a sudden Zali is starting to seem suspicious to me, self-admitted ranger, why is she still alive? Take her out and the orcs would be free to kill who they wish but wait... maybe shes been left alive in hopes that we'd begin to suspect her? I know this has been gone over before but all of a sudden I don't find Zali to be so much the hero she was on Day 2.

First I'd like to address this post made by Grend

Haha, Nogrod, every post you make me very nervous...your posts strengthen the chance of your being innocent or your being an orc, and very, very good one at that. I cannot shake the notion that you are trying (as an orc) to develop bonds with ordinary villagers. You already have Sleepy's trust, because you revealed his innocence, which I believe to be true. Could it be you are just trying to get to me next? I am willing to see you try to support your innocence and, if you really are innocent, to try to come to the realization that I am innocent as well. I can't waste anymore time! I must vote soon.

I've trusted Nogrod since before he had the dream I find this an invalid point. He had no need to develop a bond with me since there already is one, at most posting that just weakened the bond rather than strengthened it and now with Diamond's death I assure you its been severed completely.

And what do you meant 'get me next'? Do you mean Nogrod is trying to get everyone to like him so that nobody'll vote for him? Pardon me but I find this to be an absurd theory. It would take someone very charismatic or really desperate to try something like that, no offence to Nogrod but as I said in ME Idol, you lack the X-Factor. And with the current confusion I'd say its not the orcs who are desperate. Don't get me wrong, Nogrod can put up a convincing arguement but when it comes to making friends of everyone in the village? Is that even plausible?

Now then, back to Finde and Grend. They've been playing rather well and honestly I find them to be suspicious. Grend has seemed eager this whole game and her recent post of minimizing the list of suspects based on what the shaman says just seems weird to me. As Roa stated, even in a normal game its not much better. As for Finde shes just seemed kind of jumpy. On the last Day she relied on JennyHallu to pick who to vote for, now I know that other people did this as well but I didn't find her reasoning to be all that reasonable.

Sorry for the intrusion but heres something about Grend that caught my eye.

Post #313 she states shes reluctant to start a band-wagon. Why? Is it because she a band-wagonning an innocent would draw the wrong attention and she knows that Nogrod is an innocent? (Due to her being an orc) Also, in the post she quoted, Nogrod was suggesting that Caran played a part in it. Could this be one orc coming to the aid of the other?

In the same post she says the she wouldn't want people to vote someone based on her reasons. I just find it weird that someone would openly be so unsure of themselves. At this stage, to me at least, it looked as if she wouldn't vote Nogrod but then later (Post #339) she does vote for Nogrod and says she doubts he'll get lynched. Now she could have just jumped onto the Kitanna band-wagon but she chose to go the safe way and vote Nogrod.

And today (Post #354) it seems that shes dropped all her suspicion for Nogrod. This contradicts with her saying that she wouldn't cross Nogrod off her suspicion list anytime soon. Nogrod said that he'd defend himself tommorrow if they were still alive, however I don't believe thats happened as of yet.

I'd prefer to wait for Nogrod's post before making any more comments on Finde.

There would be three remaining ones that I would still be unsure of- Naria, Roa, and Caranlondien.

I'd also like to say something about this. If you used the shaman as a basis to determine who is innocent and who is not then know this, on Day 2 the only people who didn't have suspicions against me were Nogrod, Roa and Diamond. True nobody had really made any theories against me but note, at a point it would seem that everyone would have been ready to vote for me except for Nogrod, Roa and Diamond.

*pinches self*

Still alive. I didn't expect that at all. I really thought that either Zali or I would be toast last night. Still, it's good to be here.

Oh? The orcs won't kill Zali because (a) she is one of them or (b) her not being dead yet has given rise to some suspicion. As for yourself, I doubted the orcs would go for you just because I made a claim that I believe you're the shaman. I didn't expect them to kill me either but I think they'd prefer to kill a proven innocent.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Sleepy

I'd also like to say something about this. If you used the shaman as a basis to determine who is innocent and who is not then know this, on Day 2 the only people who didn't have suspicions against me were Nogrod, Roa and Diamond. True nobody had really made any theories against me but note, at a point it would seem that everyone would have been ready to vote for me except for Nogrod, Roa and Diamond.

Are you saying that Nogrod or myself is the shaman? (Stop doing that- you're going to get someone killed.) I don't think that works quite well. Wouldn't it make more sense for us to dream of you if we thought you were suspicious? Sure, we could think you were innocent, and sent a dream to prove it because everyone was turning against you, but that seems a bit far fetched. And I know Nogrod can't be the Shaman, because last time I saw him as a seer, he was fairly reluctant in coming forward. (Until he was about to be lynched.) He seems to be playing a bit differently this game than usual, which has me worried, but I've noticed he's been toning down his agression lately, so it could just be that. Over all, I'm fairly certain that Nogrod isn't the Shaman.

Now stop theorizing about the Shaman! Honestly, Sleepy, only you could be a proven innocent and still look like an orc.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Sleepy

Grend has seemed eager this whole game and her recent post of minimizing the list of suspects based on what the shaman says just seems weird to me.

I was just working on a post about this (not specifically about Grendelien, but more about the general tendency to narrow down the suspect list) when I saw you'd already said it, Sleepy.

What I was going to say is, I'm fine with suspicion coming my way; If it comes down to numbers, I'm willing to die if it means the village will win. But it worries me that we're eliminating other suspects so easily! Right now, the only person whose innocence I'm (almost completely) sure of is Sleepy. I know we have to start somewhere, but narrowing our suspects so drastically looks an awful lot like an orcish tactic to protect an orcish ally.

[Findëasëa]

Roa:

Roa: There are no hards feeling over that. I don't understand what you're saying though- I'm contributing, helping the village, definitely stating my opinions, and that makes me more suspicios? By that reasoning, Nogrod and Celuien are also highly suspicious. Please explain why I'm standing out.

As I stated when I was voting, I think that Jenny probably put a lot of thought into her post in order to shield her wereorc friends. She would probably not have listed four innocents outright. I find it more likely that she has hidden one of her fellow orcs in the list. I already explained why I feel that Nogrod is innocent.

me: I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

Diamond and Spawn are both obviously innocents. Roa, you are the only one left of the four that I still consider a possible orc. I am using the list given by Jenny as a basis for my argument, and Celuein is not given on this list.

Sleepy:

Sleepy: On the last Day she relied on JennyHallu to pick who to vote for, now I know that other people did this as well but I didn't find her reasoning to be all that reasonable.

I understand that you don’t think my reasoning is solid. I just feel that finding an orc is all about analyzing the little details. If an orc can help it they are not going to leave any convincing evidence. The list left by Jenny probably involved a good deal of thought. I doubt she would have failed to list at least one of the wereorcs.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Diamond and Spawn are both obviously innocents. Roa, you are the only one left of the four that I still consider a possible orc. I am using the list given by Jenny as a basis for my argument, and Celuein is not given on this list.

And this proves what? Maybe JennyHallu left that one orc off the list to throw you off. Have you thought about that?

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Why didn't you think Sleepy would die?

I thought that Zali or I would be more obvious threats to the Orcs than a mere known innocent and thus more likely targeted for eating. So I thought the priority would have gone to killing one of us first.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Celuien

I thought that Zali or I would be more obvious threats to the Orcs than a mere known innocent and thus more likely targeted for eating. So I thought the priority would have gone to killing one of us first.

You're admitting that you're the Shaman?

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Fin

I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

Your reasoning here is critically flawed. If you look at the bolded sections, you have completely contradicted yourself. First, you say that it's clever, then you say it's desperate, then you fail to take into account one very large possibility: Let me explain:

Because of how the dreams work, anyone, including an orc, can recieve a dream. It's not that I think Nogrod is lying about having a dream of an innocent Sleepy. I do not, however, think that means he can't be an orc. The move is far from desperate, and is infact quite a clever one, if it is true. You have continually ignored this possibilty. This looks a great deal like one orc trying to cover for another, and I find it disturbing.

[Findëasëa]

Sleepy:

And this proves what? Maybe JennyHallu left that one orc off the list to throw you off. Have you thought about that?

Yes, I had thought of that. Like I said before, I am just trying to use my instincts about what she might have thought to do before she died to guide my theory. I think that any theory that a person might present is subject to different interpretations. I understand you do not agree with my interpretations . I just feel that in this situation Jenny was trying to throw us off by implying that all of the people on that list were innocents. I feel this is more plausible than presenting a list of innocents in the manner she did.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

You're admitting that you're the Shaman?

I refer you to my earlier post on this matter. You're not going to get a flat out yes or no from me unless I'm really backed into a corner for the reason that:
1) if I am, my revealing does the village very little good relative to the help it would give the Orcs.
2) if I'm not, saying so just puts the Orcs back on the trail of the real Shaman.

So my strategy is ambiguity.

I wish you'd stop pushing me on this.

[Findëasëa]

Roa:

Your reasoning here is critically flawed. If you look at the bolded sections, you have completely contradicted yourself. First, you say that it's clever, then you say it's desperate, then you fail to take into account one very large possibility: Let me explain:

Because of how the dreams work, anyone, including an orc, can recieve a dream. It's not that I think Nogrod is lying about having a dream of an innocent Sleepy. I do not, however, think that means he can't be an orc. The move is far from desperate, and is infact quite a clever one, if it is true. You have continually ignored this possibilty. This looks a great deal like one orc trying to cover for another, and I find it disturbing.

I did not contradict myself. I said it could be a clever ploy outside of the context of the situation that occurred the night before. When I categorize his actions as being desperate I was explaining that in the context of the suspicion that he fell under the evening before, it would be a desperate move to try to win the trust of the other villagers in this very transparent way. This does not seem to suit his style.

I completely understand that he could be an orc that had a dream about sleepy. That is exactly what I am taking into account in the post that you commented on. I am saying that I do not think that it would be likely that he is an orc trying to pass as an innocent by revealing the dream. It would be a transparent act.

[Roa_Aoife]

Obviously it isn't that transparent. You seem to be ready to accept it.

[Findëasëa]

Obviously it isn't that transparent. You seem to be ready to accept it.

My belief in his innocence does not stem from the fact that he revealed the dream, but from the context in which he revealed his dream. Upon analysing the situation I found that it seemed like a bad ploy for Nogrod to, after drawing so much suspicion, draw yet more by coming out with a dream.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Findëasëa

My belief in his innocence does not stem from the fact that he revealed the dream, but from the context in which he revealed his dream. Upon analysing the situation I found that it seemed like a bad ploy for Nogrod to, after drawing so much suspicion, draw yet more by coming out with a dream.

I don't see how coming out with a dream draws suspicion. It would seem to do quite the opposite. Afterall, I do not suspect Nogrod for the dream, I simply refuse to let it rule him out as a suspect. The fact that you seem so quick to dismiss him is rather disturbing.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Find

My belief in his innocence does not stem from the fact that he revealed the dream, but from the context in which he revealed his dream. Upon analysing the situation I found that it seemed like a bad ploy for Nogrod to, after drawing so much suspicion, draw yet more by coming out with a dream.

Ah, but perhaps an orcish Nogrod might have known the context of his situation would point in his favor...

[Sleepy Ranger]

At the moment Finde seems to be very flimsy to me. That could very be due to having so much to answer to however Grend doesn't really strike to me as innocent either. I wish double-lynchings were there...

Ahem, anyway, I'll probably be voting for Finde, Grend or Naria again. (The latter only if the other two can get up a very good defense for themselves) I'd like to see Nogrod post a bit more since I've grown a bit suspicious of him. Hes singing the same song we are does he have the same tune?

Is it just me or does Finde seem a bit confused?

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I'm curious to know how you can narrow the list down so far. There have only been four nights, therefore only four dreams. One of those was of an Orc, so that leaves only 3 dreams, another was of Sleepy, so that's 2 to reveal known innocents. One was just the previous night, and the dreamer may not have arrived yet, so you really only have one to go on, from the first day. In regular games, dreams go directly to the seer, and even then, if the seer dies, we can't always interpret their posts properly. If a seer thinks someone is innocent, that doesn't mean they dreamt of them. Likewise, if a seer thinks someone is suspicious, it doesn't make them guilty. So, how, in this game, when the dreams don't necessarily go to the Shaman, are you able to narrow the list so far down, just by figuring out who the Shaman is?

If the person I believe to be the Shaman really is (although I'm starting to doubt this more and more based on what another villager has been saying), I found posts by this person earlier on that could be interpreted as a revealed dream, thus supporting (but not proving) the innocence of a villager. I cannot go any further about how the other villagers could be tied in to the possible innocence of that villager, because it would be giving too much away to the orcs, and like I stated before, the protection of our Shaman is crucial.

However, I know that the possibility of my being wrong is high. None of us will know who the Shaman is unless revealed, and I'd rather not have that happen...unless later in the game the Shaman has not been killed and knows the identity of an orc. I'm just putting this out there, off to the side just in case the Shaman is revealed. Please don't get me wrong, I know that even if the person I believe to be the Shaman really is, this doesn't prove the innocence of some other villagers...but I believe it could highly support their innocence.

And just to be clear, I wouldn't think to use this theory to narrow down suspects *now,* because that would be very foolish, considering we don't even know who the Shaman is, and my thought of the possible Shaman could be very, very wrong.

I must clear up some things that Sleepy brought to my attention:

Originally Posted by Sleepy

I've trusted Nogrod since before he had the dream I find this an invalid point. He had no need to develop a bond with me since there already is one, at most posting that just weakened the bond rather than strengthened it and now with Diamond's death I assure you its been severed completely.

And what do you meant 'get me next'? Do you mean Nogrod is trying to get everyone to like him so that nobody'll vote for him? Pardon me but I find this to be an absurd theory. It would take someone very charismatic or really desperate to try something like that, no offence to Nogrod but as I said in ME Idol, you lack the X-Factor. And with the current confusion I'd say its not the orcs who are desperate. Don't get me wrong, Nogrod can put up a convincing arguement but when it comes to making friends of everyone in the village? Is that even plausible?

Obviously Nogrod would not be able to win over the trust of every innocent villager, if he were an orc, but I do not find it absurd to think that he would want to win the trust of some innocents. At the time, I found him extremely suspicious, suspicious to the point that I could not shake it from my mind that day. My suspicions have dwindled considerably based on his reasoning and his seemingly sincere objective to help the village. Could he be a very good liar? The chance is very likely, and should not be discarded. But right now, he is seeming less suspicious to me, personally.

Originally Posted by Sleepy

Post #313 she states shes reluctant to start a band-wagon. Why? Is it because she a band-wagonning an innocent would draw the wrong attention and she knows that Nogrod is an innocent? (Due to her being an orc) Also, in the post she quoted, Nogrod was suggesting that Caran played a part in it. Could this be one orc coming to the aid of the other?

I did not want to start a bandwagon because I knew there is a possibility that Nogrod could be innocent. I certainly would not want to start a bandwagon on an unknown because the possibility of innocence would be forever in my mind...and if he were innocent, I would feel like I mislead my fellow villagers at a time when they could have focused their attention on hunting an orc.

Originally Posted by Sleepy

In the same post she says the she wouldn't want people to vote someone based on her reasons. I just find it weird that someone would openly be so unsure of themselves. At this stage, to me at least, it looked as if she wouldn't vote Nogrod but then later (Post #339) she does vote for Nogrod and says she doubts he'll get lynched. Now she could have just jumped onto the Kitanna band-wagon but she chose to go the safe way and vote Nogrod.

I am being openly unsure of myself so that I can be as honest as possible. I am unsure of most villagers, because the arguments supporting their guilt or verifying their innocence are both very strong. I dislike making definite statements, unless 100% sure, because I find it necessary to keep all options open.

Like I stated above, I voted for Nogrod because I found him most suspicious at the time, and found more arguments either strongly supporting his guilt or stongly supporting his innocence. I went with my gut feeling and voted for him because I thought the signs of guilt overrode the signs of innocence.

And why would I jump on the Kitanna bandwagon when I did not find her as suspicious as Nogrod that day?

[Findëasëa]

I obviously have a lot to think about regarding Nogrod's innocence. My arguments do not have completely certain footing, but I am just trying to be as honest as I can about who I suspect and why. I cede the point that perhaps Nogrod imagined that people would assume that people would not suspect a wereorc to come out and divulge a dream so soon after having suspicion cast upon them. I still maintain, however, that Jenny's list is probably of some significance. Unfortunately I need to leave now and will not come back until after the deadline. If you all really feel that I am a threat to the village, by all means kill me. I am willing to sacrifice so the village will benefit. I just ask that you consider other possibilities before lynching on an innocent.

Although Nogrod is no longer assumed innocent in my theories, Roa still stands out on my list of suspects. My reasoning is that Roa only chose to question me about my assumption of Nogrod's innocence after she herself was called suspicious. It might have been a way to distract from the real issue.
++Roa

[Nogrod]

Well, well.

What would you people be talking about, if I wouldn't be playing?
(And anyone, really: do you still think it as saving your own butt -tactics to come out in to the open with a dream? hah...)

So reporting in - had a fast glance on what's being said, and will be back after some rereading & thoughts

The first and easy one just to begin with: Roa, you are right, the shaman might have dreamt of Spawn and Diamond. That I hadn't come to think about. My bad... but then again, that's what I asked, to see, whether there would be sense in opening up the game a little - or drastically even. Well, if we miss today, we must do something more radical tomorrow (or just hit right).

PS. And yes Roa: I have been toning down for a quite while already (after the two first games), so I think I'm quite in line with my way of playing today. That can be easily checked - if anyone is that interested...

EDIT: X-posted with Find

[Nogrod]

This will not be done after rereading - or with very careful pondering (realized, I should write some RPG-stuff first). But as we still have time, I'll thought of just rolling a couple of balls forwards.

The worst scenario: If we make two mistaken lynces, the ratio between villagers and orcs will be 3:2. In this situation, I would call for the dreamer to come and help us (if it wasn't Diamond), for the narrowing down of the possibilities of a mistake, is of the essence now.

Secondly: I just realized, that no-one has suspected Celuien during the whole game! I might be wrong, in thinking that no-one hasn't mentioned her as a suspicious one, but just can't recall any serious accusations. If she is that clever, we should probably look at her doings too? I would hate to die and hear Celuien being the other orc! If we are ready to suspect Zali, why aren't we ready suspect Celuien too?

[Roa_Aoife]

My reasoning is that Roa only chose to question me about my assumption of Nogrod's innocence after she herself was called suspicious.

I've been pointing out that assuming Nogrod's innocense because of the dream is foolishness for sometime. That's nothing new. And if you're going to accuse me, I want to know what reasons you have for that. You said that your only reason was because I was the last possible orc on that list, so I merely pointed out the fallacy of that reason. Once others started pointing out the same fallacy, you backed away from your point, yet continue to give faulty reasons for accusing me. Go back and read. I haven't changed my opinion on the issue in question since it was brought up. Why are you distorting the facts?

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Why are you distorting the facts?

Because shes a were-orc! Its staring us in the face, and we all know its true but obviously we're too stupid to see it!

My vote will be up soon since I have to go to bed.

[Naria]

My list of suspects and why:

Caran- She is usually fairly insightful and this time she seems not to be. She is all over the place in her accusations and her voting. She gives poor reasons for her votes(yeah, yeah....I'm one to talk, but this is about her now) and she usually does give good reasons. In her post #286 she suspects Nogrod, Kitanna and Roa, but later down the road she abruptly changes her path and votes for me instead of one of the three she mentions on her list. The reason she gave was really bad too, that she didn't know who else to vote for. What?! She had three suspects, all of a sudden it's a mystery on whom to vote for.

Celuien- I was on the fence about her, but kept her on my suspect list because there was something that is gnawing at the back of my neck. She was playing fairly normal, then Sleepy comes out and proclaims her to be the Shaman....she didn't like the idea at first, but now it looks like she is alot more comfortable with it. Maybe she is an Orc using the Shaman proclamation as a cover.

Gren and Fin- Aah, the newbies. They had a rough start, as to be expected, but went on and faced each question head on with very good reasoning. A little too good....and I doubt that we would be so lucky as to have another sibling helping them out in this game . I also doubt that both of them are orcs, One of the above two are probably helping them and that is why Gren and Fin seem to be so helpful.


My innocent list is as follows:

Sleepy- Nogrod dreamt of him

Nogrod- I dreamt of him last Night

Zali- Ranger. Yes she is acting quite weird about it, but I would too if I found myself alive again and again.

Roa- She hasn't done or said anything that has sent any red flags up for me and has been playing as Roa plays.

[Roa_Aoife]

Because I forgot last post:

PS. And yes Roa: I have been toning down for a quite while already (after the two first games), so I think I'm quite in line with my way of playing today. That can be easily checked - if anyone is that interested...

I thought so. You're playing about the same as last game. (Not that that frees you from suspicion, but I have one less reason to.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Secondly: I just realized, that no-one has suspected Celuien during the whole game! I might be wrong, in thinking that no-one hasn't mentioned her as a suspicious one, but just can't recall any serious accusations. If she is that clever, we should probably look at her doings too? I would hate to die and hear Celuien being the other orc! If we are ready to suspect Zali, why aren't we ready suspect Celuien too?

Very true... How did she manage that? But you still owe us a Devil's Advocate Review on Findeasea. You told us you would yesterDay. Where is it?

Originally Posted by Sleepy

Because shes a were-orc! Its staring us in the face, and we all know its true but obviously we're too stupid to see it!

Ah, what a convincing case. I'm starting to swing this way myself, though.

And thankyou for clearing things up, Grendelien. I still don't quite follow, but I guess you can't explain any further without exposing the Shaman, so I'll accept that response for now.

EDIT: Cross posted with Naria. Nevermind about suspecting Nogrod then. Thank you Naria, even if you are an orc.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Bed-time for me! Anyway I've decided to drop my case against Naria since after going over my posts it seems like a rather silly reason. Once we reach a stage of desperation then mayhap I shall revert back to it. Remember the plan I mentioned yesterDAY? Well toDAYs lynching and toNIGHTs kill will be rather determinal in the success of it! So ye orcses bettah do what I expect ya to or ya gonna be in some beeeeg trouble!

Ahem, don't let me influence what you do since thats another important factor of my plan.

++Findeasea
*crosses fingers*

Lennon help us!

EDIT: Nogrod... friend! You and Naria are the last two orcs, aren't you?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Naria

Nogrod- I dreamt of him last Night

Well, thanks shaman! And thanks Naria to come up with it! Although this was bad in a sense, that we don't have any new "believable" innocents now. But maybe it is good, that the thing I knew, can be known by you others too...

= Roa
But you still owe us a Devil's Advocate Review on Findeasea. You told us you would yesterDay. Where is it?

I hadn't either the time or the energy to make it yesterDAY. I'll wrap up my RPG-stuff and get on to it (½+ hour). And I have some similar kind of stuff made on Celuien as well (done during the afternoon (GMT)). I'm coming back soon - and will be popping in every now and then, if something happens meanwhile...

EDIT: X-posted with Sleepy

[Sleepy Ranger]

Honestly, Nogrod... I was just playing. I believe you are innocent.

Don't Know

Caranlondien
Grendelien
Findëasëa
Celuien
Naria (Believe it or not, very clever move for an orc)
Roa_Aoife

Innocent

Zali
Sleepy Ranger
Nogrod

[Grendelien]

I've been reading over the posts, and have an idea who I'm going to vote for..unfortunately, I have class until 6:30 on another campus, so my vote will be very last minute. I'm going to bring my laptop with me and hope the room has wireless internet!

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Naria

The reason she gave was really bad too, that she didn't know who else to vote for. What?! She had three suspects, all of a sudden it's a mystery on whom to vote for.

Actually, I've been suspicious of just about everyone for the past few days. I listed Kitanna, Nogrod, and Roa earlier as my main suspects. Kitanna's reaction partway through the day convinced me of her innocence, though (I mean, she just about sealed her fate by voting for herself). So here was the situation: voting ending in a few minutes, only just enough players left to save Kitanna, I had to leave, and so couldn't wait for the village to reach a consensus. I didn't want to start a band-wagon to lynch a louder, helpful villager; even though I suspect them more, I'd want to be more careful in lynching them, since if they're innocents, they contribute a great deal to the village. I voted for you, Naria, because you're (self-admittedly) quite quiet and I suspected you more than I did Kitanna.

As for Findeasea, I can't help but continue to see her as a (somewhat clueless) innocent newbie (No offense, Finde!). Somehow I hadn't even noticed Celuien was so effectively flying under the radar, and I'll be more interested to see Nogrod's analysis of her.

[Celuien]

++ ROA

Mostly because of the business with Spawn early on. I wish I had more time to explain, but again, this has been a busy day.

The week before a concert, along with work, just isn't any fun.

[Nogrod]

RPG cleared!

Celuien: I hope you will still be sticking around - if we would have some questions for you...

[Caranlondien]

Well, so we've two votes for Roa and one for Findeasea:

Findeasea --> Roa (Roa 1)
Sleepy --> Findeasea (Roa 1, Findeasea 1)
Celuien --> Roa (Roa 2, Findeasea 1)

Left to vote:
Caran
Nogrod
Grendelien
Zali
Naria
Roa

Is this list correct?

[Nogrod]

Celuien, I’m again quite baffled about the things you do. You are such careful at times, and then so careless on another times... So it seems, that the time calls for The return of the Devil’s Advocate...


First of all, in #45 You list all the players, according to your suspicions, well almost all the players. Your list has no Jenny (now known and done for orc) in it, even though the numbers are right: Caran in unsuspicious two times...

Then on #67 you say:

I wonder. Should I regret my vote for Diamond?
At the same time, it's an awfully brazen thing for an orc to say.

On the second day you note it would be a bad move to try being a shaman impersonator, then you start talking about your ordoness (#156) and wonder, whether you are still alive the next day (#168) – nice to compare this to #67.

On the third day you firstly downplay Jenny’s posts – and say, the truths, if there are any, will be quite subtle. Then again it has f.ex. turned out, that from Jenny’s “dangerous”-list: Spawn, Roa, Diamond & me, I & we know three to be innocent already – and you weren’t even mentioned in the post(s) (no Celuien!)! If Jenny were listing the innocents, who would be dangerous from an orc point of view, it would have included you too, were you innocent...

From the third day onwards, you have also been defending Naria quite openly. Comparing things again. In #156 you make the second full list of your suspicions (DAY2), having Naria under the title “Really, really don't know”. In the morning (DAY3), you go making a case against Sleepy (not generally known innocent then, but to an orc of course) in #250, saying:

So Sleepy moves to the top of my suspicion list based on day 1. I haven't thought too much about what he's done since then, other than to guess that if he's an orc, Naria is innocent since he went along with Jenny's accusation.

This morning (DAY4) you go on to defend Naria again on #351:

At the end of yesterday's voting/auto-eviction, only Naria remained alive. If Diamond's suspect list was a factor in her selection, that either means Naria is an Orc who killed Diamond to protect herself, or that Naria is innocent and Diamond was killed to start a lynch Naria bandwagon.
Naria doesn't seem to be a bold sort. So I don't think she would have gone for a suspicion causing bluff (look at me! I can't be an Orc if Diamond was killed - it brings to much suspicion on me) as an Orc by killing Diamond. For that reason, I think Diamond's death points to Naria's innocence.

Now earlier you said, that if Sleepy is an orc, Naria is an innocent. As Sleepy turned out innocent, the case might have been left open again? But you will go againg defending Naria (probably a known innocent to an orc). You know, as well as we do, that WW is not so simple, that you can so openly trust someone - even though you had some reasonable grounds for it (and I don't claim you playing simple: far from it, if you are an orc). But it seems a bit odd, that you go on claiming someone's innocence in a dreamer/seer-like fashion.

And what's even more interesting: if people would have started to believe, that you would have had the dream on the night before your first defence of Naria, that would have pointed against my dream - making it look false! That could be exploited maybe tomorrow? Quite nicely weaved, I would say. But happily, Naria (some irony here...?) had the dream of me, and can now somewhat prove my word here.

Lastly this toying with the shaman-stuff. First I was afraid, that you were the shaman – and would be quickly spotted by the orcs. Then I kind of started to believe, that you were making a casual shaman impersonation – and being quite a brave ordo in doing it as offering yourself to the orcs. But just now I have started to think, that whether this vague posture of yours is a disguise towards us villagers, and not towards the orcs?

Well. That's the Devil speaking (against possible orcs? ). I'm not myself so sure, what to make of this. But I would like to hear your assessments...

[Caranlondien]

Celuien certainly looks suspicious. She isn't here, is she? I'd like to hear a defense from her...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(Celuien's) list has no Jenny

Would an orcish Celuien really be so bold, as to leave out one of her compatriots?

My main question is, why is Celuien still alive? (Of course, I remember what happened the last time I asked that question...) Still, if the orcs thought they knew who the Shaman was, wouldn't they go for her (or him)? And, if they thought Zali might get in their way, wouldn't it be better to kill her, too, than to go on like this, trying to cast suspicion on her?

My head hurts from the confusion... Darn you, orcs!

EDIT: incorrectly gendered pronoun; sorry, Celuien!

[Caranlondien]

I'm beginning to think that either Zali or Celuien is an orc. The orcs' kills just don't make sense to me...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Celuien certainly looks suspicious.

My main question is, why is Celuien still alive? (Of course, I remember what happened the last time I asked that question...) Still, if the orcs thought they knew who the Shaman was, wouldn't they go for her (or him)? And, if they thought Zali might get in their way, wouldn't it be better to kill her, too, than to go on like this, trying to cast suspicion on her?

Certainly looks so. But that's what happens, when you look at people that way...

But I'm also beginning to see the point of your main question better than earlier.

First I thought, that the orcs believed, they had nailed the shaman, and just decided to divert the ranger first (if she could come in between - they surely had sore memories about that), at the same time making her look very suspicious indeed - maybe hoping we would kill her ourselves. And Diamond was a good kill from the orc point of view, and probably safe for them (no rangering to meddle with it).

But really: they risked one more dream with that move too!!! It turned out a dream of me, but it could have turned out a dream of an orc! That would be both bold and confident, to almost being irresponsible orcseying...? How to explain this?

EDIT: X-posted with Caran...

[Caranlondien]

Here's the post I was working on when Nogrod posted his analysis of Celuien.

Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy: A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife: aspiring ballad writer

I know I'm innocent. I believe the dreams about Nogrod and Sleepy. So the suspects left (for me, at least) are Grendelien, Findëasëa, Celuien, Zali, Naria, and Roa.

Grendelien - It's true that she's playing quite insightfully for a newbie. As I said before, I was once suspected for the same thing, and I was innocent. However, that doesn't mean she is. Now that Nogrod's a confirmed innocent, it does make her attack on him look rather worse, though she's toned that down somewhat.

Findëasëa - As I said earlier, I have a hard time seeing her as anything but a newbie right now, although I'm (of course) still uncertain of her innocence.

Celuien – (See previous posts)

Zali - I just don't see her as bluffing. Unless someone else comes out and says they're the Ranger, I'll believe her.

Naria - She's quiet, doesn't seem to be around much, but when she is, she's quick and to the point. It makes me nervous, but I haven't found anything tangible against her.

Roa - She's been on my suspect list for a while now, and I may end up voting for her. I just need time to digest Nogrod's analysis.

EDIT: cross-posted with Nogrod

[Caranlondien]

Ha, I forgot to go back and change what I said about Zali; I'm still more inclined to believe her innocent, and to suspect Celuien.