Werewolf CX: Insert Title Here - not the game thread

[Oddwen]

Werewolf. We're all aware of it. We're all aware of them. We know the havoc they wreak. Still, we allow their presence, even rejoice in them at times. Because it's fun. Yeah.

Werewolf game #CX - Insert Title Here

The tentative start date is on or around September 18th. The deadline times would be about 10 MT - Midnight ET- 5am Brittime - 7am Finntime

The roles will be:
3 (three) wolves (wolfs)
Several (I hope) ordos (ordinarios)

If 12 or more players sign up a Cursed Villager could be thrown in there. Kicking and screaming, of course.

In case of a tie: Some kind of [s]bird man?[/s] random thing will happen, like a coinflip or a diceroll or someone could turn into a pancake. You are taking the laws reality into your hands if you cause a tie so use your newfound power with caution!

Absences: Please let us know in the admin thread or by PMing me if you know you may be absent and will miss a vote and we can plan accordingly. If you miss two votes then Modfire will reign down from the heavens and/or ooze up through the earth's crust from the hells and it will be pretty messy.

Votes must be ++highlighted or they will not count. Use the code (highlight)++YOUR VOTE(/highlight) but use brackets [] instead of those curly things ()

Funny story. I had a list of planning notes for this game but I lost it. Haha, wasn't that a great story?

So this theme isn't a totally cool one but we'll have fun with it, darn it! You can think of a generic villager role for the generic totally-LotR-canon-no-really village of:



PARTS UNKNOWN
(Turn left after you've gone off into The Blue and you can't miss it.)



People who expressed interest so far:

Eomer of the Rohirrim of the Land of Rohan - Tavern Keep
A Little Green A Lot Of The Rest Of The Colors - Mad Gardener and Cat/Goat Lady - MUHHHHH!
Thinlalelilolumien - Everybody's Housewife
The definitely defiant satanisaloser2005 - Paul Blart: Town Bard
Le Gate of Amon's Leg - Baul Plart: Town Drunk
Inzila-not-quite-dun - Layabout
Kathkath? Kathkath.
ShastAHHHHHHHH
rikaeiou
Nerwengles
AHHHHHHHHHHHganzir - chaotic neutral butcher

Questions? Suggestions? Love injections?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh aye, it's been far too long since we lynched some of these foul wolves. I'll be the tavern-keeper, so obviously one of the most important villagers.

[Inziladun]

Can I claim the role of "unemployed village layabout?"

[Kath]

Would love to join, but the 10th is Oxonmoot weekend so would cause difficulties!

[Oddwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

Would love to join, but the 10th is Oxonmoot weekend so would cause difficulties!

Hmmmmmm, good point. Possibly the 18thish would work better then.

[Loslote]

I would absolutely love to join, but I'm starting a grad program and classes will be starting up around the 10th. If we do move to the 18th, I'll probably have a better idea of how much free time I'll actually have - which doesn't mean I can guarantee I will be able to play if we start the 18th, but I will be able to confirm whether or not I'll have the free time before the game begins. I wouldn't want to sign up only to find out that I'm completely swamped and have to pull out and ruin all the narrations. I'd love to play again if I can, though.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I play.

[Kath]

If it is the 18th then I can be in.

[satansaloser2005]

I shall be a maiden of song, a town crier, a lass full of sass. In other words, the village bard.

I must spread word to the people of this endeavor!

[satansaloser2005]

Hang on. I just realized something. Are there no gifteds in this game?

[A Little Green]

Well, no gifteds sounds like fun to me! I'll be a mad old lady with a garden, a goat, and lots of cats.

[Oddwen]

That's right. No gifted roles, only gifted players.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Oddwen

That's right. No gifted roles, only gifted players.

Then we probably need a few of those.

I'm on the job!

[Loslote]

I'm gonna have to bow out, I'm afraid. I won't have anywhere near enough time to play a proper game.

[Rikae]

What what...?

Originally Posted by Oddwen

No gifted roles, only gifted players.

Sounds like my kind of game. I mean...

is it too late to sign up?

[Nerwen]

If not, please count me in, too.

[Oddwen]

Plenty of time, the tenative start date is the 18th.

[Thinlómien]

*pokes thread with a stick*

Can I be a housewife?

Even better, can I be everybody's housewife?

This sounds like a crazy game anyway.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Even better, can I be everybody's housewife?

Well, Fea probably doesn't have time to play, so that role should be open.


In other news, I'll do another round of poking before it gets too late.

[Aganzir]

You know I really don't think I have time to play. Would love to but my next 2-3 weeks are packed.

Hmm but then... It's not a big game is it? And the prospect of having Lommy for a housewife is tempting.

Hmm.

Actually yeah. This is probably a mistake, but if the village stays about this size (no more than a couple more people), I probably could play.

And to think I started writing this post fully meaning to say sorry I couldn't play!

I'll be the butcher. No, I don't know why Lottie decided to leave our beautiful town so abruptly... but have you tried the pork?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And to think I started writing this post fully meaning to say sorry I couldn't play!

That's how it goes.

For that matter, I would like to claim the role of a village drunk.

[Oddwen]

Yahoo! Signups will remain open until 10pm Mountain time on the 18th, at which time I will send out roles and the first pre-Night will begin. If you are signed up please let me know the role you would like to play for narrational purposes or I'll give you some kind of generic cookie-cutter role.

[Oddwen]

One and a half hours left, sign up if you dare! Once the game thread is up signups will be closed.

[Oddwen]

Night has begun. You know the drill.

I have PM'd roles to all except for the person who has a full PM box. I messaged that person by another way so please check things that are places. Thanks!

[Inziladun]

Looks like I'm finally eligible for the Most Noble Order of the Fenris.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I missed the first day because I was camping. Sorry, I'm back now.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Looks like I'm finally eligible for the Most Noble Order of the Fenris.

You get a gold medal!

[Inziladun]

It's stunning. My Precious, yes my Precious....

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It's stunning. My Precious, yes my Precious....

Though the mathematician/scientist in me insists that simply tallying up the number of Fenrises is just not statistically correct. Rather, one should look at all the times people were lynched on D1 and find the percentage of those times that they were a wolf. That shows people's wolfing (or anti-fenris) abilities more without confounding the data with a general tendency to often be lynched early. Consider the false alarms when you count the hits.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Though the mathematician/scientist in me insists that simply tallying up the number of Fenrises is just not statistically correct. Rather, one should look at all the times people were lynched on D1 and find the percentage of those times that they were a wolf. That shows people's wolfing (or anti-fenris) abilities more without confounding the data with a general tendency to often be lynched early. Consider the false alarms when you count the hits.

My non-mathematical brain hurts.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

My non-mathematical brain hurts.

Ok, to explain this, let's pretend that a person with their eyes closed has to decide if someone taps them very lightly on the shoulder or not (yes=he thinks he's tapped, no=he thinks he's not tapped). If the person is tapped, and he says yes, that's a true positive (or a hit). If he is NOT tapped but says yes, that's a false positive (or a false alarm). Likewise, a true negative is when he correctly identifies the lack of hit, and false negative is when he doesn't feel the tap.

If the person says "yes" all the time, he will identify all the taps - out of the potential hits, he would get all 100%. But he would also get the full 100% for false positives. It doesn't make him more accurate or more prone to feel the tap than a person who says a mix of yes and no. That's why scientists, rather than count just the number of correct "yeses", look at the proportion of true to false positives. The person in my example would have a 50/50 proportion, which in fact means that his choice is pretty much random and could be based on chance alone (which is in fact what happens in the story). If the person actually tries to identify and separate the tap vs no tap, he would probably have more true positives and less false positives.

The point of this exercise was to eliminate the effect of a person's individual tendency to answer yes or no when in doubt (so in this scenario, the person tends to answer yes more than no, which skews the data towards the positive side).

In relation to Werewolf, there are people who tend to be lynched early regardless of role. So logically, in absolute terms, they would probably have more fenrisses than average. Like a truckload of apples would probably contain more wormy apples than one basket. However, the percentage of wormy apples in both could be the same. We don't just want to count the true positives (how many wormy apples, how many fenrisses), but to find the proportion of true to false positives (how many wormy apples out of how many in total? How many fenrisses out of how many D1 lynchings in total?). This would actually tell you if you tend to be fenrissed more often than others, or if you just tend to be lynched more often than others.

Now that I think of it, if we were to do a full-out statistical analysis, we'd have to throw in a lot more factors in because of the small data sets. Most of us haven't played in that many games to make for a decent stats analysis. For example, I've never been fenrissed, but I've only been a wolf twice, and both times in my cub days. That's a great survival percentage, but it's not telling you much about be because of the small number of games.

Ok, I think I'll stop my rant and try to keep my math-science geekiness under control.