Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Boromir88]

Prologue

It was the year 1065 of the Third Age. A small group of folk had grown weary of the years of warring in the south, traveled northwards, and finally settled on the southern borders of Greenwood.

Lately, rumors were spreading among the village that what first looked like a promising spot to build a home, turned out to not be so. It wasn't just the recent illness and tragic death of their village founder and leader. There were also rumors that foul and dark things were inhabiting the Greenwood. Boro heard whispers amongst the townsfolk calling it Mirkwood.

Tomorrow morning the entire village elders would gather in Boro's residence to decide on a new leader. As was laid out by their original founder, one would be chosen from the group of 17. The meeting would likely take all day as all 17 were expected to speak their mind about the future and on who would lead them.

Boro favored staying and laying down stronger roots here. He was becoming quite settled and comfortable, even with rumors of the woods growing darker. Nothing was going to force him from this land. He decided.

There was a knock on his door. When Boro opened it there were 4 villagers who Boro knew were going to be at tomorrow's counsel.

"Folks" he said "Hello. I was going to try to get some sleep for tomorrow, but I don't think I'll have much success. Would you all like some tea?" The four villagers walked in. Two stopped in front of him, two behind and they began slowly circling. Boro decided this was quite unusual, even from these four. "Can I help you?"

"That remains to be seen," said the first. "You see, we were a little restless and went deeper into the forest than any one here has gone. You would be amazed at what is happening inside those woods. I'm amazed we all made it back in one piece!"

"Well, I'm glad you all made it back in time for tomorrow's counsel" Boro said trying to remain polite.

"Are you?" sneered the second. "What exactly are your intentions tomorrow? By that I mean, what do you hope to accomplish?"

Boro now had quite decided, fellow townspeople or not, he did not like these people being here and wanted them gone. "I suggest you all just head back to your home. There will be plenty of time tomorrow to decide on all of this. Good evening!"

"Aw, now you don't have to be so tense" said the third softly, and the tone disarmed him. "You are a prominent person, in fact important to us, and really want to know your mind."

"Well. if you insist." said Boro, this time a little calmer, but still wary of what these villagers were doing here at this time. "As you imply, I realize the forest might be growing dark. I have even heard some villagers calling it Mirkwood now. I get folks are scared and worried, but I don't see a reason to uproot ourselves. At least, it will take a lot more than whispers and rumors of evil things deep in the woods to move me."

"Ahh! See we quite agree with you!" smiled the fourth.

"Good. Well, I'm glad that's settled then" said Boro. "Now, good evening."

"Not for you!" laughed all four.

-------

For a look at the rules. Here

[Boromir88]

"Not for you" the four laughed all at once.

Boro tried to make a quick dash for the door, but the two behind him grabbed him by the arms, one grabbed him by the legs, and the last grabbed a chair and restraints. He was forced into the chair and bound to it.

"Listen folks, I don't know what you want" he said nervously. "If you untie me and go, we can all forget about it."

The four intruders cackled at how pathetic he sounded.

"No. I mean it. I get it, you're restless in this village. You can go on your way tomorrow...or even right now. Tonight. No one will stop you. I won't say anything."

"I'm afraid you don't understand" smirked the leader of the group. "We said we agreed with you about staying here. We do not agree with you leading us. In fact, there will be no meeting tomorrow. No silly talk of an election of a new leader. This village is under our occupation and you will be the first example for anyone who tries to stop us."

One of them went to the window and drew back the curtains, revealing a full moonlight shining in. They all began to transform into terrible and beastly werewolf forms.

Four distinct howls were heard. Darkness fell on the House of Boro.

The Players

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Huinesoron
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

It is Night 1. Silence here.

Day 1 opens tomorrow @10pm GMT

[Boromir88]

It was early morning, just past dawn, when most of the townsfolk had already gathered outside Boro's house. The meeting was supposed to be starting soon and he wasn't answering the door!

Shasta was the last to arrive, right on the dot of when it was supposed to start. "What are we all waiting around outside for?" He yawned.

"Several of us tried knocking the last 15 minutes." said Nogrod "He hasn't answered."

"Yo! Boro! Get out here!" yelled Nilp as loud as he could. "You're the one who wanted to start this thing at the crack of dawn!"

Silence.

"Has anyone tried opening the door?" asked Blind Guardian.

"He probably overslept" said an irritated Kath. "I don't want to go walking in on him if he's not even fully dressed yet."

"Yo! Boro!" yelled Nilp this time even louder than the first. "You're not in there nude are you!?"

Silence.

"Alright, if he was awake, we would hear him crack up laughing" said sally. "If he's not awake after that raucous noise he would be the heaviest sleeper I know."

They all decided on opening the door for a quick peek. However, when the door opened they stared with mouths agape at the scene. Just a few feet away from the entrance, Boro's body was tied down to a chair. He had many claw marks all over, on his legs, arms, chest, face and neck. There were too many to even count. He was torn to shreds.

"What do you think the killing blow was?" asked Rikae

"Uhh, I don't know, maybe any of the 5 million cuts!" exaggerated Lommy

There was a piece of parchment at Boro's feet that Formendacil picked up and passed it to each of the villagers to read.

There will be no meeting. No election. We control this town now and if you oppose us, you will die. If you try to run, like this coward, you will meet the same fate.

Signed

There were 4 werewolf prints in blood on the bottom of the note.

(Note there are no clues to any roles in my narrations)

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Huinesoron
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Macalaure
Nogrod
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

Day 1 is open for business.

Wolves cease night chatter.

[Loslote]

Well, this is no way to hold a village meeting!

[Formendacil]

I'm not even supposed to be here! I was just asked to house-sit while Wilwa is away, and, well, you know the economy--you don't turn down freeish room and mostly free board just because it's a tiny village in the middle of a nowhere rumoured to be haunted by bloodthirsty half-men, half-wolves.

Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably. Boro's death is a tragedy, but we don't have to die. Surely, some compromise is available!

[EDIT: I mispelt Wilwa as Willa and that was just too embarassing not to edit!]

[Pitchwife]

Werewolves, hm? I bet they come from that naked hill over yonder, the one with no trees on the top, just bare rocks rising over the forest. There's always a shadow over the place, gives me the creeps when I look that way.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably. Boro's death is a tragedy, but we don't have to die. Surely, some compromise is available!

What an intriguing proposal. Does Boro's corpse look like an invitation to negotiations to you? Seems more like domination & crackdown to me.

[Loslote]

Clearly trying to run is not a good strategy against whatever these things are. If anyone is so unfortunate as to see one, they should try either playing dead or waving their arms around and yelling. Or I guess you could try Formendacil's "talk to them" strategy...seems a little fishy to me though.

[Pitchwife]

Fishy, you say? I wonder, can you make leather from fish skin? Does fish leather make good boots?


Anyway, since it doesn't look like there's going to be much of a town meeting at this hour, I'm going back to sleep for now. See you all later.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What an intriguing proposal. Does Boro's corpse look like an invitation to negotiations to you? Seems more like domination & crackdown to me.

Well, violence is never the answer! And turning to it before we've even attempted diplomacy is morally repugnant. Why is it that the very first thing a village would think about is killing? I mean, if this has happened 114 times before, that'd be one thing...

[Nogrod]

Does anyone have any connections to Ciryaher's court? After becoming the "South-Victor" he could also be a "North-Victor" by pacifying these lands. We could send an envoy to ask for help?

Or if anyone has any contacts with the media like "the Daily Gondorian" or "the Wold Post", or even better, knowing any influencers in "Middlestagram" or "Visagevellum" who could plead for our case? Any publicity would be good for us.

In a normal situation I would agree with master Formendacil in here, that violence is not the answer. But sometimes, like here an now, one just can't pretend one lived in the best of the possible worlds, but he needs to plainly take a stand for life and goodness against evil.

Therefore staying firm and obeying the high laws of morality is not always the humane answer - even if Ka(n)t(h) said so. Like the great Aristondil once said before: a virtuous person also knows when to get angry and when to stand up for the sake of his community and beloved ones, or like his teacher Plathor insisted, for the sake of Light and Goodness as such.

Looking at what these beasts have done to Mr. Boro, I can't help thinking we need to take some measures we would not be comfortable taking in any normal circumstances.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

"Has anyone tried opening the door?" asked Blind Guardian.

This sounds just like me. I would (IRL) just try the door.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably. Boro's death is a tragedy, but we don't have to die. Surely, some compromise is available!

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Well, violence is never the answer! And turning to it before we've even attempted diplomacy is morally repugnant. Why is it that the very first thing a village would think about is killing? I mean, if this has happened 114 times before, that'd be one thing...

Wolf sympathizer. They already killed one. We need to find them and kill them before they kill anymore.

Edit: Ohh dang I did that quote thing correctly on the first try!! Didn't actually make any changes; just wanted to point that out.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, who killed my prince! Show yourselves, you filthy monsters!

I'm here and wondering if Form is perhaps one of those evil creatures. Perhaps he's not watching Wilwa's house at all, and ate the poor girl instead!

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Fishy, you say? I wonder, can you make leather from fish skin? Does fish leather make good boots?

I doubt it! And why would you be shopping for boots at a time like this?

Originally Posted by Sally

Okay, who killed my prince! Show yourselves, you filthy monsters!

I thought Shasta was your prince? Wait, is Boro actually Shasta? Nobody ever keeps me in the loop around here.

[satansaloser2005]

Well questioned, Rikae! Boro is my sweet prince. To be fair, I have many special internet men in my life.

Speaking of which, I just noticed my love Nilp is playing! Please don't be evil. I'd hate to have to kill you.

I need to go to bed soon, but I'll be back to hopefully say something of merit in the morning. Please don't bandwagon on me while I'm gone again, eh, Lommy?

[Brinniel]

Poor Boro, what a gruesome way to die.

Originally Posted by Formy

Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably.

Yes, because I'm sure these wolves are willing to show their fur to talk.

And I see Nogs has already turned to philosophy!

Originally Posted by Sally

Speaking of which, I just noticed my love Nilp is playing! Please don't be evil. I'd hate to have to kill you.

Well, knowing his suicidal tendencies, he may just do the job for you. Oh the irony, if he turns out to be the Night Wolf!

It's been a fairly quiet Day so far...should I expect walls of text when I return tomorrow?

[Loslote]

If I wake up and I find that no one has gone through and proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that all eight of us who have posted so far are somehow all evil, I will be disappointed.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Well questioned, Rikae! Boro is my sweet prince. To be fair, I have many special internet men in my life.

That's all well and good, but to the rest of us he was a town recorder, which I believe is a flute-like instrument (?) and the village butter-churner as well, which is an essential worker. Big shoes to fill, indeed.

Which reminds me, we did have an election planned for toDay, and I for one think that if we allow the wolves to disrupt the democratic process, haven't we already, in essence, let them win? I vote for +-Nogrod for our new leader, on the grounds that he is neither fishy, nor shopping for shoes, nor a monarchist.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

++Nilpaurion Felagund

I'm sorry, guys, it's been so long since I've done this. This is how this game is played, right?

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

[highlight.]++Nilpaurion Felagund[/highlight]

I'm sorry, guys, it's been so long since I've done this. This is how this game is played, right?

Uhh, you know you can't undo that on this thread, right?

Oh god is this going to be another Phantom...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Uhh, you know you can't undo that on this thread, right?

Voting yourself is called “Nilping” for a reason.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Voting yourself is called “Nilping” for a reason.

I did not know that. I need to play more!

[Rikae]

I actually heard about Nilping before I met Nilp!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I did not know that. I need to play more!

I'll forgive you if you vote for me.

[Huinesoron]

"There will be no meeting?" Hah, wrong before they even left the opening narration.

I had a chance to look over the thread a couple of hours ago on my phone, and thought Nog's opener was really long for an 'in-character'-type opening post. But from the PC I see it's not nearly as long as it felt.

I will be actively trying to fight my own wall-of-text tendencies by such arcane methods as 'proofreading my posts'. We'll see if it helps.

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Let me sum this up. One wakes up, expecting a village meeting, only to find dead Boro. In no time, we have Form talking pacifism and Pitch the combination of domination and fishskins, while Nogrod suggests we invite foreign military aid, followed by flash-course on the last two Ages of philosophical history. Subsequently, sally establishes herself a harem and Nilp votes himself. In other words, exactly what one would expect.

I, for one, am up for sorting this out amongst ourselves without foreign military aid, that rarely ends well. In no time, you are paying taxes to some monarch in his distant white tower while werewolves may still be prowling about. No, we need to protect ourselves using our own resources.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Well, knowing his suicidal tendencies, he may just do the job for you. Oh the irony, if he turns out to be the Night Wolf!

That being said: I'm wondering how the presence of such might influence the game. Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely? Or at least the Night Wolf? And then there's the whole Dead Thread subject. But I think all of these will become and grow more important only as the Days progress.

Generally, so far, rather quiet here... Hope for everyone to appear rather sooner than later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I actually heard about Nilping before I met Nilp!

How disappointed were you?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

sally establishes herself a harem

What role do I play (aside from best girl, of course )?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That being said: I'm wondering how the presence of such might influence the game. Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely? Or at least the Night Wolf? And then there's the whole Dead Thread subject.

Oh, right. That reminds me... Since my only Dead Thread game was *checks* five years ago (also my last game of any kind), I'd like to ask about the lay of the land. Like, is there a need for the good living inhabitants of Greenwood the Great (not a fan of this murky wood naming nonsense) to co-ordinate with the Dead, once that thread has been populated? I remember this being a sore point in that aforementioned previous game.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Are the Wolves more likely to play more carefreely?

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

hS

[Formendacil]

That is... fewer posts than I was expecting to come back and find. (Wilwa's cats expect regular feeding, you know.

Once upon a time, in some of my past lives, I have been known to rant about the pointlessness of Days One--correction: about the pointlessness if trying to analyze Day 1 during Day 1. The only hard data we have is deaths and votes--and a self-vote for Nilp on Day 1 is as close to useless as knowing that the Mod died when it comes to data.

Not that there's much actual value in me saying that... but I have time now to post and who knows how my day will go, so rather than be the silent, suspicious villager, I may as well be the present, suspicious villager.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Once upon a time, in some of my past lives, I have been known to rant about the pointlessness of Days One--correction: about the pointlessness if trying to analyze Day 1 during Day 1. The only hard data we have is deaths and votes--and a self-vote for Nilp on Day 1 is as close to useless as knowing that the Mod died when it comes to data.

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

As in, more boldly? Anyway, the activity so far does not point towards anything like that - but it's Day 1. How many people have not posted yet at all? Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Mac, Shasta? Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day. Of course, we still have nearly half of the Day left, and the European-afternoon is coming soon and with it probably more posting from there.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

In fact, I'd say behaviour is the first thing that finds a Wolf (as far as ordinary villagers are concerned). That's why I am kinda unhappy about the so-far noncommital talk. But yeah, there is time.

Anyway... I will have time to be around here and there in the coming hours, and hope for more discussion to start.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Hi, Form. (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this.)

Also, I'm semi-consistently here and have taken coffee. A bottle of highly caffeinated soda is also at hand to give me a chance to stay awake till the deadline. Just waiting for some topic to chew on.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Care to clarify what 'playing carefreely' would look like?

I'm not Legate, but I'm guessing this refers to the possibility of the Nightmare wolf taking more risks or being less concerned for their own survival, knowing they will continue being an asset to the pack even if lynched. Personally I'm not sure if we can put too much weight on this kind of speculation, especially this early in the game, but it's worth keeping in mind that one of our wolves might not be as worried about being lynched a regular wolf. Then again, catching one wolf tends to leave trails to others, so if they're playing this angle, we can probably expect the rest of the pack to be quite prepared to bus the NW.

Originally Posted by Legate

Let me sum this up. One wakes up, expecting a village meeting, only to find dead Boro. In no time, we have Form talking pacifism and Pitch the combination of domination and fishskins, while Nogrod suggests we invite foreign military aid, followed by flash-course on the last two Ages of philosophical history. Subsequently, sally establishes herself a harem and Nilp votes himself. In other words, exactly what one would expect.

And to complete the list of expected D1 events, behold the debate on whether D1 is pointless or not.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I disagree. This assumes that the wolves are happy to throw away Day 1 without trying to probe for Gifted, buddy up with innocents, or set up lines of enquiry for later days. Which, I mean, it would be nice if they just threw up their hands and let the winds decide, but I don't think they'll be that accommodating.

You can catch a wolf by their behaviour as well as by their vote. Sure, it's more difficult - but that doesn't mean we should just give up and let them have free rein.

hS

In general terms, I don't disagree, but in more specific terms? Well, I do disagree...

Analyzing behaviour implies to me that you're analyzing someone's behaviour against a baseline of some sort. But what is that baseline? We have no other Day's in-game data yet to go by. It's always dicey to analyze against past performances (disclaimer: over a decade ago I did that ALL THE TIME--and somewhat successfully, if my memory serves, but it was different when you played multiple games with the same players back-to-back. Saying "XX doesn't seem to be as active as usual" or "YY is being unusually serious" is far less useful.)

So what does that leave for a baseline? Other players? That's comparing apples to oranges (or Eomers to gil-galads).

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context. Day 1 will provide context for Day 2's behaviour. Day 1's votes--and the role reveal and the Night kill--will all provide context to analyse Day 1's behaviour.

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Legate

Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day.

I'd take offence but for the truth of that statement.

Poor old Boro! And he was so excited for this meeting as well. What a shame.

I see a few people bemoaning Day 1 and nothing to talk about but there's been a little undercurrent of Nightmare Wolf chat and that is an interesting topic. Nilp's self-vote for example. Yes, ok, it's completely traditional (as Blind Guardian just learned!) but also it could suggest that he is the Nightmare Wolf who actually wants to be lynched. I mean, that's such a potentially powerful role but only once they're dead.

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hi, Form. (Was going through my last game looking for my old lynch tally template and stumbled upon this.)

I offer a completely nonbinding and nonmonetary apology for my past transgressions, Nilp, and submit that it is past the Statute of Limitations to secure any recompense from me.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Also - the Medium role in the Dead Thread - if a majority plus has to be reached, does that mean there will be no Medium toMorrow? My maths skills are struggling there.

There will be a Medium if the two dead people--toDay's lynch and toNight's kill--agree. If they disagree, no Medium. If the Ranger saves the would-be kill, then a virtually guaranteed Medium (easy to have a majority of one person, Nilp's multiple personalities aside.

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

As in, more boldly? Anyway, the activity so far does not point towards anything like that - but it's Day 1. How many people have not posted yet at all? Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Mac, Shasta? Kath and Shasta tend to be the "show-up-last-minute"-people, but perhaps the absence of others is contributing a bit to the quietness of the Day. Of course, we still have nearly half of the Day left, and the European-afternoon is coming soon and with it probably more posting from there.

Speaking for myself, I'm trying to learn from my mistakes and not play WW when I'm supposed to be working! Anyway done with work now so I'll be popping in and out for the rest of the day, though probably won't stay awake until DL.

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I had a chance to look over the thread a couple of hours ago on my phone, and thought Nog's opener was really long for an 'in-character'-type opening post. But from the PC I see it's not nearly as long as it felt.

Trust me, that post was pretty concise for Nog.

Originally Posted by Kath

I see a few people bemoaning Day 1 and nothing to talk about but there's been a little undercurrent of Nightmare Wolf chat and that is an interesting topic. Nilp's self-vote for example. Yes, ok, it's completely traditional (as Blind Guardian just learned!) but also it could suggest that he is the Nightmare Wolf who actually wants to be lynched. I mean, that's such a potentially powerful role but only once they're dead.

I've never been a fan of self-votes, but unfortunately I don't think we can read anything into Nilp's. He would definitely do it as the Nightmare wolf but he would just as likely do it in any other role, too. (If anything, Nilp not self-voting on D1 would attract attention.) But regarding the NW in general, I'll be curious to see whether the pack prioritise that extra power or keeping as many of them alive as long as possible - since sacrificing one of their number would mean an extra Day for them to survive in the game.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Form

There will be a Medium if the two dead people--toDay's lynch and toNight's kill--agree. If they disagree, no Medium. If the Ranger saves the would-be kill, then a virtually guaranteed Medium (easy to have a majority of one person, Nilp's multiple personalities aside.

So a lynched wolf + a night-killed innocent would probably mean the innocent can stop the wolf becoming Medium, right? And in fact they could have no Medium by just not voting given that the innocent isn't going to know anything at that point.

Ok so apart from the Nightmare Wolf getting to go into play, the wolves gain nothing by being suicidal early on. That doesn't discount Nilp from being a wolf hiding in plain sight, though!

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context. Day 1 will provide context for Day 2's behaviour. Day 1's votes--and the role reveal and the Night kill--will all provide context to analyse Day 1's behaviour.

But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

As a scientist, I would love to be scientific, but... it's Tol-in-Gaurhoth. It's never going to be scientific, and we're fooling ourselves if we think it will.

So yes, I still think it's possible to catch a wolf by their behaviour even on Day One. Forget baselines, and look at what people are doing. If someone is (say) trying to claim that we can't do anything useful today, whose ends does that serve?

My question to Legate, for instance, was a test to see if his 'carefree' remark could be a lead-in to arguing that 'X player seems to be carefree, they must be a wolf!'. I wasn't looking for a specific response to indicate This Is A Wolf (/Innocent), obviously - I was just seeing if something popped. My feeling is that his answer didn't lean either way - but it could have.

If we don't push the wolves, they won't slip up. And without knowing who the wolves are, I say that means we push generally and see what moves.

hS

Edit: Crossed since Formendacil #36.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context.
...
But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

I think we're stuck with what the great Númenorian philosophers called abductive reasoning or inference, where we start from observations and then reason for the most likely conclusion - in a good case the results are plausible enough to act on, but they will never verify our conclusions.

I think Form is correct in pointing out the lack of "baseline" - or generally lack of data on Day1, but I'd not deduce from that a total futility of Day1 - even on Day1 itself.

We'll have ample time to get the ball rolling toDay.


EDIT: X'd with a bunch