The Great Eye In Dol Guldur?

[Sardy]

This thread: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthr...997#post508997 got me thinking about an intriguing scenario...

What if the White Council had not driven Sauron from Dol Guldur? How would the trilogy be changed? How would the Fellowship's mission be affected? Gandalf mentions in Unfinished Tales that Sauron would most likely have attacked the North first... how would this have changed the unfolding story?

One thing that occurs to me right off is that Mt. Doom would be much more accessible, and thus the Ring easier to destroy...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Interesting question and first, I have to say that I'd like very much to explore this possibility. But, I have to swiftly (and unfortunately, for this idea of yours, which I like nevertheless) add the facts which make the answer quite clear.

I'll try to sum it up clearly. The main thing is, unfortunately, that the story will not end well. The fate of Middle-earth is quite dark in this case.

Originally Posted by Sardy

How would the trilogy be changed? How would the Fellowship's mission be affected?

My answer is: no trilogy, and no Fellowship (and no mission).

Now I'd better show why. So, here we go:

1. Sauron remains in Dol Guldur. However, by that time he has already sent all the Ringwraith to reoccupy Mordor (around the year 2000. The attack on Dol Guldur happened in 2851). And even if he did not until this time, he certainly would later. He wanted Mordor. He just didn't want to be too obvious. But when prepared, he'd return to his lands. Thus,

Originally Posted by Sardy

One thing that occurs to me right off is that Mt. Doom would be much more accessible, and thus the Ring easier to destroy...

certainly does not come to possibility.

2. Even if Mordor itself were not guarded. We know that Sauron wanted (or at least Gandalf think so, and quite logically) to attack Rivendell and Lórien. I'll include a larger part from the Unfinished tales to make it completely clear:

I thought then, and I am sure now, that he wanted to attack Lórien and Rivendell, as soon as he was strong enough was his original plan. It would have been a much better plan for him, and much worse for us.
You may think that Rivendell was out of his reach, but I did not think so. The state of things in the North was very bad. The Kingdom under the Mountain and the strong Men of Dale were no more. To resist any force that Sauron might send to regain the northern passes in the mountains and the old lands of Angmar there were only the Dwarves of the Iron Hills, and behind them lay a desolation and a Dragon. The Dragon Sauron might use with terrible effect.
Often I said to myself: "I must find some means of dealing with Smaug. But a direct stroke against Dol Guldur is needed still more. We must disturb Sauron's plans. I must make the Council see that.'
(...)
Resistance still had somewhere where it could take counsel free from the Shadow. How could the Ringbearer have escaped, if there had been no Lórien or Rivendell? And those places might have fallen, I think, if Sauron had thrown all his power against them first.

So, here you have it. I think no further explanation is needed. If Sauron wasn't kicked from Dol Guldur, he'd attack the Northerners, then Lórien, Rivendell... and even if Bilbo could have returned back to the Shire (and Bolg's army under the Mountain wouldn't be boosted with a few creatures from Dol Guldur), he'd surely see the Ringwraith in the Shire himself many years sooner than Frodo did. And followed by a horde of Orcs.

[mhagain]

I'm in agreement with Legate.

Even assuming that the sole difference was Sauron's continued presence in Dol Guldur, and that everything else (up to a point) was identical to the book (just for fun), there is no way the Fellowship would have gone near Lorien after the escape from Moria.

Mount Doom may have been more accessible (if Mordor wasn't infested with Nazgul and orcs), but one would have to be in the general vicinity of Mordor to be able to avail of that accessibility in a useful way. The Gap of Rohan would still have been closed, the route through Lorien (or between Lorien and Mirkwood) would have been madness, so that would have left either going around the White Mountains by west and south, or taking a similar route to Bilbo's through Mirkwood, then down the River Running and across land. Both would have taken too long, and who knows what mischief the Big S would have gotten up to in the meantime.

[littlemanpoet]

Just supposing that things could have gotten so far, Gandalf would have raced to Hobbiton after the fall of Lorien, and perhaps taken Bilbo with him to Minas Tirith; this because he was not yet sure of the Ring, but too suspicious to leave it and Bilbo unsafe in Hobbiton. Thus he would have had to avoid Imladris, which would have been too close to the advancing forces of Sauron from Dol Guldur, and would have found Caradhras no better than in the story that did happen. And then he would most certainly have avoided Moria, since there was no Lorien anymore to escape to afterward. This would have sent him right by the front door of Saruman in Orthanc, who would have welcomed them in for refuge; only to turn traitor and take the Ring from them. Or so it seems to me, taking this and that into account.

[Rhod the Red]

I don't know if the storyline would have changed since Sauron was basically ready to leave for Mordor when driven out by Saruman, anyway.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I don't think the answer is as simple as you all make it out to be. . .

Scenario1: Sauron keep Dol Guldur as his main base . . .This will most likely mean that Mordor will be easier to get to, still quite a task though. Now we don't know how strong Dol Guldur actually was, but it seems certain that it could not hold the ammount of troops as Mordor and Sauron would not be able to get re-inforcments un-noticed. So it is likely that the North would actually be prepared for a fight and I am not at all sertain that Lothlorien would fall. Sauron would also have to fight the Elves of Mirkwood! It could very well be that the main difference would be that traveling down the Anduin would be a very dangouress action.

Scenario2: Dol Guldur is kept as a fortress, but Mordor is the main base of Sauron. . . . .well, yeah then the fellowship would probably fail.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Rune, I agree with you on what you present here. But this is the minimalistic point of view. And I don't think Gandalf was unreasonable or paranoic, so I'd stick to the theory I have presented in my previous post

[Rumil]

I think Galadriel has a useful part to play in this discussion.

She maintained that although the White Council had driven Sauron from Dol Guldur, by the time of the War of the Ring, Dol Guldur had been reoccupied by the forces of Sauron with seven-fold their previous strength. I'd imagine it must have been full to bursting with the extra snagas and uruks!

These forces were unleashed in a number of directions during the war. They definitely attacked Lothlorien three times and were soundly defeated, they attacked Rohan while the main force of Rohirrim were in Gondor, but were caught by the ents on the Wold and massacred (this was probably part of the force that was repelled from Lothlorien). Forces attacked the Woodmen, Thranduil and possibly the Beornings in Mirkwood and maybe forces were sent to attack Erebor. Some of the attacks on Lothlorien and Mirkwood were no doubt supplemented by the goblins of the Misty Mountains, but you get the idea.

[The 1,000 Reader]

If I'm not mistaken, a main problem with Sauron's direction of his armies is that he spread them out too much and thus made it more difficult to effectively manage his attention on such forces. 45,000 troops? What about the strength of Mordor? Cirith Ungol to go with that? That was Sauron's main problem: he never tried to focus his attention and resources to take out a land. All he did was make many attacks of less focus and less strength at the same time. If he simply used both the strength of Minas Morgul and Mordor against Gondor, it would have surely fallen. Gondor would be overwhelmed and faced with many more attackers, meaning an easier siege. Once that was complete, Sauron could have focused all three of his armies together to sweep the north.

Though I believe Lothlorien to be too well-defended to take either way by the time of LOTR, If he used more than one army and flanked the land with his forces, he could stand a chance of taking it out. Once Lothlorien fell, he could have gone back to the eastern lands to recover (or, depending on the casulties,) pressed forward to swarm Mirkwood, which would likely suffer from tremendous loss of morale with the fall of Minas Tirith and Lothlorien. Afterwards, The Corsairs would guard Mordor and Minas Morgul from south-bound foes on land and from sea while the hosts of Dol Guldur, Minas Morgul and Mordor would regroup and then sweep down on Rivendell, possibly recruiting some goblins from the Misty Mountains.

[Rhod the Red]

He overstretched his forces and focused away from finding the Ring, that is clear. He payed for it with his life and so did his servants. With exception to the men of Rhun and Harad, who surrendered and accepted tribute to the Reunited Kingdom

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The main problem was that the events (Aragorn...) made him act faster than he otherwise would. He'd surely make things happen better for him, better prepared, better strategy, better numbers. But he had to crush Minas Tirith before the Heir of the Kings would come in the city with The One Ring and then form something like a second Last Alliance (or so, in my opinion, Sauron thought) - thus, he must also have stopped everyone else from helping Gondor (no Elves from Lothlórien in Minas Tirith - if Sauron didn't attack Lórien, Thranduil and the Dwarves, we might very well have a Peter Jackson-ish scene in the RotK). So that's why all the other fronts were needed.

[The 1,000 Reader]

Actually, if he just assaulted Minas Tirith with the might of Mordor as well when he first heard of the ring, he'd have easily smashed Gondor to pieces. The elves were also "emo" and weren't really doing much in Middle-Earth other than Elrond and Legolas. He should have just kept Dol Guldur to monitor the elves and used Minas Morgul and Mordor to destroy Gondor.

I guess I was right: Sauron really was stupid.