Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lottie

I didn't think it would be a problem - I didn't think I'd been able to dream yet, and I assumed that was the general consensus.

That’s fair enough. On the other hand, this–

Originally Posted by Lottie

Nope. If I'd dreamed you, I would've been much more vocal in my support of you - if I recall correctly, when you revealed, I said something along the lines of "well, I guess we can trust her, for now, but don't get too comfortable."

– perhaps answers my concluding question. We’ll see.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.


I thought as much.

EDIT:X’d with two Lotties.

Can we bet that neither Lottie nor Shasta are Saruman? Unless it's a severe double-cross to throw the village off his trail for one crucial day. But that seems like more risk than a wolf pack under fire might take.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I thought as much.

More specifically, I thought she had probably sent me a few specific "I'm the Aura Reader and I know you're gifted" hints. But if she's telling the truth those would have to be coincidental. And if she's a sorcerer she wouldn't have been able to guess...probably.

[Nerwen]

Day Two

Lottie

#107.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Maybe this could have been seen as a Seer hint? For the most part, though, Zil was fairly non-committal. He certainly didn't jump in guns blazing saying "x is evil", so I think he was probably a no-trace kill.

I have said (#148) why I don’t like this post, but here it is again:

Originally Posted by me

Thing is, as I said in my analysis of Zil, his posts taken together might well have given off a gifted vibe, but that one by itself actually doesn’t look much like a hint. Through paranoid eyes, this looks rather like someone who has, in fact, studied Zil’s posts in detail, but wants to appear as if she hasn’t– and is also trying a bit of misdirection.

#115.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Echo, while frustratingly (and, it seems, purposefully) vague, does come off to me at least as being simply a nervous newbie. Unless he/she (did we ever get clarification on that point?) does something glaringly eeeeeevil, I'm inclined to give him/her an extension on his/her newbie pass.

Holby alarms me, but I get the impression that's just her style. Makes me nervous, though - it's too easy to hide under that.

Though I didn’t say actually as much, the first part of this struck me as being, at best irresponsible– letting the newbie think it’s all right to go on playing like that. The other one, on our known wolf is... well, it’s ambiguous.

#147.

Originally Posted by Lottie

If you are a sorcerer, then you know who the other sorcerers are - and, by extension, you know the other sorcerers aren't. If you want to suspect anyone other than your fellow sorcerers, you have to fake suspicion.

On another note, I don't know what to think of Holby anymore. Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused.

YesterDay, Kath was my strongest suspicion, and I suppose she still is, but only by default. I'm mostly on the fence with her, leaning just a bit towards eeeeevil, but I'll probably spend more time looking over her posts later on to maybe see if I can work out where that feeling is coming from and whether or not it's justified.

So why hadn’t Lottie dreamed Kath the Night before, if Kath was her “strongest suspicion?”


#160. regrets lack of activity; comments on McCaber’s reveal:

Originally Posted by Lottie

I...don't think this is a move a sorcerer would make, especially not on Day 2 - it seems too risky. Can we be confident enough in that to write him off as a known innocent?

Originally Posted by #188

Mainly gut-feeling - a couple of her posts have nudged me the wrong way. I mentioned Day 1 that some of her reasoning felt forced. Nothing concrete, but enough to keep me wary.

List time:

Likely Innocent
McCobbler
Nerwen
Greenie

More Innocent Than Not
Cop
Echo
Boro

No Read
Steve
Lommy
Shasta
Holbytlass

Could Be Evil, Maybe
Kath

I might vote for Kath, but not if it'll be a throw-away. Otherwise, I'd prefer my no-reads over the ones I feel better about.

#200. Casts the first vote on Holby.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Okay. Well. At the moment, Nerwen and I both have one vote, while Cop has three. I'm going to

++Holby

Because I find her somewhat suspicious where I definitely don't find either Cop or Nerwen suspicious, and I want to put up another candidate who has a chance against Cop. I'm off to a nice dinner with the boy. Have a good Night, everyone.

Shasta

#118.
Long post.

Finds Greenie dubious because she “elected not to say anything” regarding the number of villains and for her “delayed reaction” to Echo’s vote on Kath (that is, Greenie first simply reminded Echo to bold the vote, then only later reacted with shock to its contents).
Believes a post of Cop’s that Lommy found suspect was just “Cop’s brand of humour. very dry, that one.” Like Lottie, finds Cop’s controversial posts of the previous Day to be more innocent than not, though he also comments,

Originally Posted by Shasta

Although this bit was a bit of an eyebrow-raiser -
Quote:

I honestly can't tell if the fact that she considered how saying that would make her look before posting it makes her look better or worse.

He spends some time making a case against Legate (!), whom he doesn’t seem to realise is dead (?). In the course of this he several times he approvingly cites points made by Lommy.

Shasta concludes his post with this:

Lottie's vote post at #97 makes me uneasy. The tone is almost as if she's grateful her vote choices have been narrowed down, and that's never something an innocent actively wants.

Holby, by contrast, has a much more panicky feel to it (context - Lottie's post was seven minutes before DL, Holby's was five, so both extremely close to the end of the day, but Lottie was pretty calm about the whole thing.) I would, however, like to know why Holby found Legate more suspicious than Cop or Kath. I don't thinK I remember her being suspicious of him prior.

And Eonwe casts the deciding vote for Legate over Kath. He mentions Legate as a possible wolf earlier, so no real surprises there. Definitely worth a look later though, depending on what Kath turns out to be if she dies.

Echo makes the first post of Day 2 and mentions four people in his/her post - none of which are Kath. Curiouser and curiouser.

Curiouser and curiouser is right! How could either a wolf OR Seer not be aware of who had been lynched?!


#155.
Another long post.

My refutation (#121) of one of his points against Greenie, and Greenie’s self-defence (#122) are “fair enough”, but “I just think the two posts taken together look strange”.

Banter with Lommy.

Disputes Boro’s contention (#137) that Holby’s weird list of the Day before was in itself suspicious:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't know that I buy this. I've seen things said purely in jest taken as "evidence" before, and I think it's very rarely ended well.

Agrees with Boro that Lottie’s “I’m inclined to think they’re both innocent” statement looks bad. [Note: Boro speaks of this as having referred to Lommy and Legate; actually it was Greenie and Legate]

Disagree with Kath (#138) that Cop’s vote for Legate was fishy, pointing out that Cop needed to save herself. Is curious, though, why Cop herself didn’t mention this as a reason. Supports Kath’s suggestion to Echo (that he/she should star giving clearer answers).

Responding to Greenie’s suspicion list (#151):

Originally Posted by Shasta

So you aren't going to attempt to fry the lone fish in your fourth (and most suspicious) category? You're not really helping me think you innocent, Greenie.

Note mild defence of Holby. On the other, the spat with Greenie doesn’t look that much like wolf-on-wolf to me– though who can be sure?

#176 [Replying to a comment by Lommy regarding his strange mistake about Legate]

Originally Posted by Shasta

No no. I wrote that post toDay and posted it when it was done - I just asked that question of Legate early on and forgot to go back and change it.

#213. Self-votes (the last vote of the Day)

Originally Posted by Shasta

I took a nap. My bad.

++Shasta

Well! More Ugh! Shasta’s mistake about Legate is bizarre, coming from a non-ordo of any stripe– yet he must be one.

Their votes are interesting. Shasta could have voted Holby, or could have tied Cop with Holby, negating the lynch– but did neither of these things. Lottie did actually vote the wolf– however, as Boro (I think) pointed out, it was a classic set-up for a “safe” vote.

At this point, by their own accounts, our rival Seers had had the following dreams:

Lottie: Nobody, Me.
Shasta: Me, Lommy. (Should I be flattered to be getting so much attention?)

That coming Night, “Seer” Lottie supposedly dreamed Steve and “Seer”-Shasta dreamed Boro.

Problematic, in both cases. As Shasta was, for all intents and purposes, silent on Day One, we obviously can’t make any comparison between dream-choices and stated suspicions that Day. On Day Two, the best that can be said is that he does nothing that would actually contradict his account– he doesn’t actually seem to have left any clues to his dreams at all. And I have to wonder why he didn’t go on to dream Greenie, his chief suspect at this point.

Lottie’s case is similar– but quite a bit more so. She lists me, her (supposed) sole dream at this point, as “likely innocent”– but couples my name with those of McCaber and Greenie. Meanwhile, apart from the rather sudden vote on Holby, her only real suspicion either Day was Kath, whom she never dreamed either Night.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Can we bet that neither Lottie nor Shasta are Saruman? Unless it's a severe double-cross to throw the village off his trail for one crucial day. But that seems like more risk than a wolf pack under fire might take.

You mean this sort of thing?

Originally Posted by Lottie

It would seem to make more sense to have not-Saruman fake a Seer reveal - thus, it would imply that Greenie is Saruman. However, they could be assuming that we'd think that and have Saruman reveal hoping to trick us into killing not-Saruman first

[A Little Green]

!!!

For me, this is pretty straightforward. I know Lottie is lying, so by definition Shasta has to be telling the truth.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Firstly, Shasta is a liar. I suppose it's because I know my own identity, but I don't find his tone convincing.

Eonwe's reaction to finding himself supposedly in the same situation I'm in now is very interesting. If you know somebody is lying because what they say is simply not true (as would be the case if he was innocent), how convincing their tone is should have nothing to do with it. If somebody tells you that bananas are purple, however convincingly they say it shouldn't be of any consequence at all since you already know they're lying. Eonwe is ostensibly in the same situation as I am, and maybe it's a difference of temperament or personality but his reaction was pretty far from what seems natural to me in a situation like this.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

So, whatever the case, if the real Seer has found the other sorcerer, it's probably best to step out now (anyway, even if this is all an elaborate lie, just replace Shasta's name with mine. It's the same principle).

Also - what? Is this a confession? I'm confused.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

We certainly do– whichever pair are the real wolves, they’re staking everything on Saruman being the one to survive.

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

[A Little Green]

Also, I don't know how much I'll be able to be around toDay, so just in case (and to get it out of the way) -

++ Eonwe

Here's hoping they didn't bluff and he is, in fact, Saruman. That seems like the logical option considering why Lottie came up with a counter-claim to try and save him - coming out as the Seer to save a packmate is a foolhardy thing to do since now we know both their identities. If Lottie was Saruman, she could have let Eonwe die (and possibly even advocate for it) and scried herself a new mate during the Night. But if she is an ordinary wolf and Eonwe is Saruman, she may have reasoned that her chances of surviving alone are too slim - after all, we still have a ratio of 7/2, which if Eonwe is lynched is down to 7/1 with all the Gifted still alive among that number. Not easy prospects for a lone wolf.

[Nerwen]

Day Three

Lottie

#251.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

This is–

1. The post Lottie points to as evidence for her dreams (#315).

2. The post she says made her “panic” that she had given herself away to the wolves (#303), #308). Also, I presume, the post to which she attributes her supposed Ranger-protection (#303).

Quite a lot to get out of that, I think.

(By the way– can somebody kindly explain to me exactly what Steve has said or done in the course of this game that made him look so shiningly innocent? Or even innocent at all? Really not seeing it.)


#252

Originally Posted by Lottie

As for Cop's reveal, I think we shouldn't consider her a known innocent, exactly, but I am inclined to trust her for now.

This, while consistent with Lottie’s account of her dreams, also would neatly explain why, if in fact a wolf, she did not later carry out her (presumed) earlier plan of naming Cop as her dream– she could hardly have done so after actually saying “we shouldn’t consider her a known innocent”. (As for why a wolf-Lottie might say this in the first place– well, by this point there were probably getting to be a few too many almost-known-innocents around.)


#261.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Nnnnnnn. I can kind of see where you're coming from, but I'd feel uncomfortable lynching someone on such slim evidence. I do agree with you that Boro, Greenie, and Shasta look most likely to be our two (two? two) sorcerers (or you for that matter, though I'm agreeing with you so heartily just now that I'm more inclined to look at the others.)

More buddying up to Lommy, looks like.


#275. Casts fourth vote on Boro.

++Boro

I'm sorry, hon, but I trust Steve more than you.

Or is this supposed to be where Seer-Lottie blew her cover? But Lommy and McCaber had both already given being “pretty sure Eönwë is innocent” as their sole reason in their vote-posts on Boro– hers is just a paraphrase of theirs.



Shasta

#221.

Originally Posted by Shasta

[Quotes my post to Steve (#220) regarding Echo’s death]
Basically, this. QFT.

I should be back soon with some actual comments, but this just begged for a "^" post.

#247.

Originally Posted by Shasta

It doesn't appear too much has happened today. It's been pretty well agreed upon that Echo died due to looking like a Seer - the only other thing of real interest is the Nerwen/Eonwe spat, which I'm going to have to take a closer look at.

#248. [Replying to Cop’s doubts of McCaber ]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Cop re: #231 - The biggest point in McCaber's favor is that no one has stepped forward to contradict him. If he's not the other Lover, there's no reason for the real other Lover not to speak up.

The rest of the post is an analysis of the Nerwen-Steve spat. It is too long to quote in full. Shasta supports my reasoning and is “leaning towards” Steve being a wolf. He does, however, conclude with this comment on my vote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

The vote is fair enough here. What I'm not sure I approve of is how apologetic Nerwen seems to be about it, both bringing up an instance of how she could be wrong and apologizing for the vote itself. I don't feel like this is typical Nerwen behavior.

Of the two, I do feel Eonwe is more suspicious. However, that last post of Nerwen's does have traits of "oops, my counterattack worked too well, I hope he's not mad."

Which is certainly a peculiar thing for a Seer to say about a dreamed innocent.

#259.
A response to Steve’s response (#256) to his previous post. Again, states agreement with my point on Kath, defends me against Steve’s “accusatory” tone and states a belief that Steve may be '"finding something to post to look helpful", which is a common wolf trait.’


#260. [Replying to Lommy at #258– the same post quoted by Lottie at #261.]
You might consider reading again, Lommy-kins. I was pretty clear about suspecting Eonwe over Nerwen, I think. Are you sure you aren't putting words in my mouth here?


#269. Vote post, and reply to Lommy at #265.

Mmm, nope, not really. I don't particularly care for her apologetic votes, but I don't find that in and of itself a reason to think her suspicious.

++Eonwe

#270.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Thanks hun.
No worries, Boro, her sister's gunning for me because (as far as I can tell) everyone else looks more innocent? I dunno.

#273.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, I don't know about that. But you might consider not narrowing things down so far with so many people still alive. That's almost as bad as Lottie's wolf-colored glasses syndrome.

#277.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fine. But I do find the reasoning behind all the Boro votes absolutely silly.

Well, indeed. I mean, if he’s a wolf he must have been laughing his head off at this point.

I mean– what happened?!


[After Steve cast the fifth and final vote for Boro]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, that's torn it then. Very nicely done.

Now, Shasta’s attitude to Boro and myself on Day three could be that of a wolf playing “white knight”. However, if at this point I had to pick which of our candidate was the real Seer– it wouldn’t be Lottie.

Still, I’d very much like an explanation of Shasta’s conclusion to #248. Again, an odd thing to say about someone you’d dreamed as innocent.

Note: technically X’d with Greenie, but saw her vote-post before finishing.

EDIT: added omitted comment.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

Yes– it’d be like when the Cursed Villager is Turned– no traces to the last wolf because he/she was innocent before that. Perhaps worse, since Saruman can select the player.

Nasty thought here: I wonder if it works on gifteds?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, Shasta’s attitude to Boro and myself on Day three could be that of a wolf playing “white knight”. However, if at this point I had to pick which of our candidate was the real Seer– it wouldn’t be Lottie.

Fine. You can lynch Steve toDay - we have enough innocents to be able to afford that - but when he turns out to be an Ordo, lynch Greenie toMorrow.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why would a false Seer name someone as (apparently) generally trusted as Steve? Why not pick someone whom people might accept more readily as a wolf? He could really only *count* on my support– and the rest of you don’t much trust me anyway.

Maybe they thought I was the seer, like Lommy did. Even though I'd finally just stopped suspecting Greenie. Or maybe that was actually the plan. Since I'd stopped suspecting Greenie , I wouldn't dream of her and then after getting lynched toDay, my change of opinion on Greenie could easily look like the dream of the Night before.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe I’m being dense here, but what the heck does this mean?

It means that whether or not the real seer believes me, they should come out now if they know the other wolf, because the other one would have to be either me or Shasta. Of course, she did, which is great.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Saruman would appear as any other sorcerer.

So, it looks like my earlier fears were not unmerited. And since Sally has decided not to tell us whether or not the wolves knew whether or not the seer to see who was Saruman or not, we're at an even greater disadvantage than we would be otherwise. Because as well as deciding whether the wolves are bluffing or double-bluffing etc., we also have to decide whether they knew, or thought we thought they knew etc. about how the dreams would show up. It's probably best to not think about the latter part too much though, because we'll probably never know.

I think what it boils down to is that if they're playing it safe, Greenie is Saruman. Shasta has already exposed himself and there was a chance that the Seer hadn't already found Greenie (she hasn't really appeared on many people's suspicion lists so far). But since they've already gone this far by risking this tactic this early (I mean, if they'd been able to stay alive until toMorrow, they'd have a much greater chance of success- unless maybe they thought the real seer was ready to reveal?), I wouldn't rule out the other option either.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Concerning Saruman - can somebody confirm something for me? If he's the last wolf standing, he can scry himself a new mate, right? So if we get him, it's practically game over for the wolves, whereas if we don't, even after we lynch him we'll have one more wolf who could be anyone and who doesn't have any trail at all of either wolf behaviour or links to packmates. So, technically, we can lose even though we know both wolves' identities?

Nice try, most-likely Saruman!

edit: x-ed with Lottie

[Eönwë]

Also, doesn't anyone else see the gaping hole in Shasta and Greenie's logic?

It's quite obvious that if Lottie and I were wolves, the only reason for her to come out of hiding would be if I were Saruman, because otherwise she would get to use her Saruman powers once I was lynched. So, clearly the village would then go to lynch me anyway, and her coming out of hiding would just be damaging. It just doesn't make sense.

[McCaber]

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

If we don't get Saruman today, it might be beneficial to look at who would be the best option for him to draft tonight. Nerwen is a seer-confirmed innocent, I have no real record to speak of so far so trying to find a shift in my posting tone would be nigh-impossible, and Greenie is probably not a wolf now or Lottie wouldn't be trying to drag her into things. Even if the gifted can be turned, Shasta wouldn't be a good choice as the seer not dying after just one or two nights would draw so much suspicion. The one they would want to see turned would probably be the Ranger to guarantee their night kills, so whoever you are can just keep staying low.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Still, I’d very much like an explanation of Shasta’s conclusion to #248. Again, an odd thing to say about someone you’d dreamed as innocent.

Well, I couldn't very well say you were innocent explicitly. I was still trying to hide when I posted that - I figured that consistently supporting you over Eonwe was a subtle enough hint without not having any "reason" at all to think you might be a wolf. So I tried to find something that wasn't completely off-the-wall.

[Kath]

Right, after yesterDay's debacle on my part I am posting and voting right now to make sure we don't end up with any stupid modfires.

++EONWE

The only way to find out which of these two are telling the truth is to lynch one of their suggestions. Now Shasta says this one is guilty, Lottie says he is innocent. Therefore lynching Eonwe tells us who the Seer is. If it is Shasta then the pool of potential wolves is much reduced by his dreams. If it is Lottie then we know exactly who to lynch toMorrow. So to me this option makes the most sense.

This is likely to be my only post toDay as I think I am out until past deadline.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by McCaber

After a night of careful consideration, I have to believe Shasta. His game rings clearer to me than either of the people he accused.

I can understand Shasta- he voted straight after revealing, which gives him freedom to claim that he wouldn't expect a counter-reveal.

But surely Greenie's reasoning is enough to make it sound unbelievable:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Here's hoping they didn't bluff and he is, in fact, Saruman. That seems like the logical option considering why Lottie came up with a counter-claim to try and save him - coming out as the Seer to save a packmate is a foolhardy thing to do since now we know both their identities. If Lottie was Saruman, she could have let Eonwe die (and possibly even advocate for it) and scried herself a new mate during the Night. But if she is an ordinary wolf and Eonwe is Saruman, she may have reasoned that her chances of surviving alone are too slim - after all, we still have a ratio of 7/2, which if Eonwe is lynched is down to 7/1 with all the Gifted still alive among that number. Not easy prospects for a lone wolf.

How does this make sense? And asking for clarification about Saruman's role? Seriously?

[Nerwen]

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I can understand Shasta- he voted straight after revealing, which gives him freedom to claim that he wouldn't expect a counter-reveal.

But surely Greenie's reasoning is enough to make it sound unbelievable:
How does this make sense? And asking for clarification about Saruman's role? Seriously?

Mm, no, actually that makes perfect sense.

[satansaloser2005]

Saruman's spirit would overtake that of a stronger than usual wizard. That caster would lose their gift (and their gift would fail that Night).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Saruman's spirit would overtake that of a stronger than usual wizard. That caster would lose their gift (and their gift would fail that Night).

And become a sorcerer?

Originally Posted by mcCaber

If we don't get Saruman today, it might be beneficial to look at who would be the best option for him to draft tonight. Nerwen is a seer-confirmed innocent, I have no real record to speak of so far so trying to find a shift in my posting tone would be nigh-impossible, and Greenie is probably not a wolf now or Lottie wouldn't be trying to drag her into things. Even if the gifted can be turned, Shasta wouldn't be a good choice as the seer not dying after just one or two nights would draw so much suspicion. The one they would want to see turned would probably be the Ranger to guarantee their night kills, so whoever you are can just keep staying low.

Well, thanks for advising Saruman, McCobbler!

[Nerwen]

Here’s something that struck me:

#308

Originally Posted by Lottie

Actually, I thought Lommy had figured out that I was the Seer. I posted my defense of both Nerwen and Steve early Day 1, and immediately after Lommy completely dropped her suspicion, not only of Nerwen and Steve, but also of me. I decided, since I thought she knew I was the Seer, to dream of Greenie rather than her - if Lommy-knowing-I-was-the-Seer was a sorcerer, I'd be dead before sunrise anyway. If Lommy is innocent, then I'd better dream of someone else. As it happens, I was paranoid and she thought the Seer was Steve.

You are, then referring to the following sequence of posts on Day 3?

#249.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm having the strangest of feelings that Nerwen and Eönwë might both be wolves after all...

#251. [Replying to an earlier post of Lommy’s]

Originally Posted by Lottie

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

#253. A suspicion list, from which I’ll quote the relevant section:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Aargh
Nerwen - there are all those little things against her and I agree with Shasta that her vote was a little apologetic, but then again I still think she seems to be wracking her brain the way an innocent would.
Eönwë - he's made a couple of eyebrow-raising posts both yesterDay (the summary) and toDay (overtly elaborate theories about Night-kills plus some of the bickering with Nerwen), but I still think openly looking for support to save Holby isn't something I would put past him without more evidence of his guilt.

Not too concerned about
Lottie - given that she started the bandwagon against Holby yesterDay when there was suspicion in the air against her makes me think she's not the most urgent of my concerns (even though it's totally possible she's a wolf).

Lottie, not only is there no internal evidence that Lommy’s arguments are following your lead, the post is marked “xed with all”– which ought to include you, as the poster immediately before her. You didn’t notice that? And even if it weren’t so, I really can’t see how even the most paranoid Seer could read all that into what looks to me like a standard example of Lommyish flip-flopping.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And become a sorcerer?

Correct.

[Loslote]

I actually did notice the xed with all. It was the reason why I thought her sudden change from here:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Aargh
Nerwen - there are all those little things against her and I agree with Shasta that her vote was a little apologetic, but then again I still think she seems to be wracking her brain the way an innocent would.
Eönwë - he's made a couple of eyebrow-raising posts both yesterDay (the summary) and toDay (overtly elaborate theories about Night-kills plus some of the bickering with Nerwen), but I still think openly looking for support to save Holby isn't something I would put past him without more evidence of his guilt.

Not too concerned about
Lottie - given that she started the bandwagon against Holby yesterDay when there was suspicion in the air against her makes me think she's not the most urgent of my concerns (even though it's totally possible she's a wolf).

where she's still suspicious of Nerwen and Steve to here:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now I'm actually pretty sure 2 of our remaining baddies are among Shasta, Boro and Greenie. Not because they look particularly guilty, but because the others look quite innocent.

Nerwen still seems to think like an innocent and - whatever crazy ideas I might have entertained - her row with Eönwë looks more innocent-on-innocent than anything else.

The same reason goes for Eönwë's innocence. Also, I'm going to repeat the effort to save Holby once more. Plus, that last post of his now was probably the most innocent sounding post I've seen the whole Day if you exclude McCaber's posting.

Lottie's last couple of posts sound very innocent too, plus like I said I'm going to momentarily give her the benefit of doubt for starting the Holby-wagon.

. . .

PS. I know I'm saying different stuff in consecutive posts right now but I'm thinking furiously and basically writing all my thought processes here. Hope it's enlightening or at least entertaining.

You'll notice that this second post immediately follows the previous post, but completely changes tune on Nerwen and Steve. Since the first post, which was wary of the two, xed with my defense of them - a defense spoken out of dream-knowledge - and was immediately followed by a change of heart, I decided it must mean that Lommy knew I was the Seer and figured out that I'd dreamed Nerwen and Steve.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why doesn’t it make sense, Steve? I’m not sure what you’re getting at.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Mm, no, actually that makes perfect sense.

Ok, maybe you misunderstood me, but what I mean is that what she suggests of Lottie doesn't make sense as something a wolf in her situation would do, because why would there be any reason for people to lynch her instead of me? It just draws more attention to me. I get killed either way, and now she's out in the open.

[Eönwë]

A sudden thought:

If you are the real seer and you still haven't revealed, you need to do so ASAP. If it turns out Shasta and Lottie are actually the wolves, they have a certain 50/50 chance of winning.

[Eönwë]

That was worded badly, but what I meant was that if it were the case and there is no counter-reveal by the real seer, then the Day after toMorrow the village will have to choose between the two, where one choice means instant loss and the other certain victory the next Day. I suppose, looking at it like that, that it's actually quite unlikely unless they were desperate, but it's still a possibility to be aware of.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, maybe you misunderstood me, but what I mean is that what she suggests of Lottie doesn't make sense as something a wolf in her situation would do, because why would there be any reason for people to lynch her instead of me? It just draws more attention to me. I get killed either way, and now she's out in the open.

Because– in the scenario that you are Saruman and Lottie is the other wolf– there’s now a decent chance of you being the one to survive, and that would be worth a lot to the . Your argument that there isn’t relies on multiple levels of second-guessing.

EDIT:X’d with Steve.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I actually did notice the xed with all. It was the reason why I thought her sudden change from here:

where she's still suspicious of Nerwen and Steve to here:

You'll notice that this second post immediately follows the previous post, but completely changes tune on Nerwen and Steve. Since the first post, which was wary of the two, xed with my defense of them - a defense spoken out of dream-knowledge - and was immediately followed by a change of heart, I decided it must mean that Lommy knew I was the Seer and figured out that I'd dreamed Nerwen and Steve.

Ah. I suspected this would be your next argument. Sorry, don’t buy it. It’s hardly a “complete change”, as Lommy’s already leaning innocent on us both in the first post you quote. It looks to me like Lommy is just wavering and talking herself in and out of suspicion, as she had been doing already. (if you extend the sequence back, the whole thing runs “probably both innocent” ... “no, maybe they’re both wolves” "...no wait, maybe they seem innocentish than not...” “...yeah, probably both innocent.")

Even if you thought your post had influenced Lommy, I really, really don’t see what would make you jump to the conclusion that she must have– very suddenly indeed!– pegged you as the Seer.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

That was worded badly, but what I meant was that if it were the case and there is no counter-reveal by the real seer, then the Day after toMorrow the village will have to choose between the two, where one choice means instant loss and the other certain victory the next Day. I suppose, looking at it like that, that it's actually quite unlikely unless they were desperate, but it's still a possibility to be aware of.

Oh, I thought of that all right– ages ago, actually– but as you say yourself, it doesn’t make much sense for them to be doing such a thing at this stage.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, better vote.

Steve does seem to be the best option. If innocent, he’s an ordo compared to Lottie’s claimed Seer. If a wolf, he seems more likely to be Saruman than Lottie does, especially with his last couple of posts looking like the start of an attempt to bus Lottie.

++Eönwë

[Loslote]

Assuming I'm telling the truth and Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, but we lynch Steve toDay instead:

As of toMorrow morning, we will have 5/2 (innocent/sorcerer). You will then lynch Greenie, of course, and we will be at 5/1. The next Day we'll be down to 4/1, at which point we'll lynch Shasta and be done with it. Unless it turns out that Shasta is Saruman, which I doubt at this point, I really don't care if you believe me or not.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Assuming I'm telling the truth and Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, but we lynch Steve toDay instead:

As of toMorrow morning, we will have 5/2 (innocent/sorcerer). You will then lynch Greenie, of course, and we will be at 5/1. The next Day we'll be down to 4/1, at which point we'll lynch Shasta and be done with it. Unless it turns out that Shasta is Saruman, which I doubt at this point, I really don't care if you believe me or not.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

I quite agree with this. If they’re wolves, it’s most unlikely Saruman would be the one to stick his neck out with the false reveal.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Because– in the scenario that you are Saruman and Lottie is the other wolf– there’s now a decent chance of you being the one to survive, and that would be worth a lot to the . Your argument that there isn’t relies on multiple levels of second-guessing.

All I'm saying is that it seems far-fetched for a wolf to do what she did for such an uncertain payoff. Even if we were wolves and she averted the vote for one Day, there's still a strong possibility that the village would go for me the next Day to test out Shasta's claim.

[Thinlómien]

Wow, this is just crazy.

I would so much more like to believe Lottie as that would save my dignity, but if I put that aside, it looks like a hard choice. Lynching Eönwë (which seems to be about to happen) or Greenie seems the wisest course toDay and then we'll be wiser, so maybe I shouldn't waste my time on this but really:

- I think Lottie's dreams make more sense than Shasta's. Missing the Night0 dream sounds like a lie that would draw too much attention (why not say she dreamt say Inzil instead?) and some stuff quoted earlier toDay didn't really seem like Shasta had dreamt of Nerwen.

- Eönwë is digging a hole in which to bury himself, even if he's innocent.

- Greenie's reaction was... weird. But nowhere as weird as Eönwë's hole-digging.

- I don't understand why sorcerer!Lottie would rather risk the whole pack's survival by doing a counter-reveal when she could just let Eönwë-Saruman die and keep laying low. Are the benefits (ie. getting a new unknown wolf) really worth the risk (Eönwë-Saruman getting lynched toDay and sorcerer!Lottie the next)? Honestly I think not. What guarantee would Lottie have that the village lynches her instead of Eönwë? It would be really bad miscalculation on her part. I don't think she's so stupid (sorry darling if you are, but then you deserve to lose. )

- both seers are clearly trying to get Nerwen and me on their side, which is sweet.

- I need to do some maths.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

- Eönwë is digging a hole in which to bury himself, even if he's innocent.

Yeah, but I've already accepted my fate as a sacrifice for truth, so I'm just saying what I think now.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

- I don't understand why sorcerer!Lottie would rather risk the whole pack's survival by doing a counter-reveal when she could just let Eönwë-Saruman die and keep laying low. Are the benefits (ie. getting a new unknown wolf) really worth the risk (Eönwë-Saruman getting lynched toDay and sorcerer!Lottie the next)? Honestly I think not. What guarantee would Lottie have that the village lynches her instead of Eönwë? It would be really bad miscalculation on her part. I don't think she's so stupid (sorry darling if you are, but then you deserve to lose. )

See! This is exactly what I've been saying all this time! I don't understand how people can see that as an acceptable explanation of her actions.

[Thinlómien]

Shasta
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCaber
Lottie
Green
Lommy
Steve

= 9 people. 7 innocents (incl. three gifteds), 2 wolves (incl. 1 Saruman).

Coming up with a worst-case scenario:

Say we lynch an ordo toDay.
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day5 we have 5 innocents and 2 known wolves.
1) We lynch Saruman.
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day6 we have 4 innocents and 1 known wolf
-> we win
2) We lynch a regular wolf.
-> next Night a new wolf is named, no one dies
-> in the beginning of Day6 we have 4 innocents, 1 known wolf and an unknown wolf
-> we lynch the known wolf obviously
-> next Night an ordo or a gifted dies
-> in the beginning of Day7, we have 3 innocents and 1 unknown wolf
-> we have very slim evidence against whoever the wolf is, a 25% chance to find them at random and barring the ranger or the hunter doing deeds of valour (if they happen to be alive) the next Night, we are screwed.

Ergo, I am not very happy about these contesting reveals at all. The wolves have pretty certainly done this maths too, and in this light, Lottie's counter-reveal makes more sense although it would still have been stupid to assume we'd rather lynch her than Eönwë.

Then again, if Shasta's the one who's lying, Greenie basically has to be Saruman. The scheme is actually quite smart. By making a fake reveal, Shasta creates a confusion in which it's easy for Greenie to hide. He manages to flush out the real seer and in the best case get an innocent (Eönwë) lynched before he goes. Thus he provides Greenie a nice chance to hide in peace until he dies, whereupon she can scry a new, totally unsuspectable wolf, so it doesn't even matter if Greenie herself falls into suspicion. I totally wouldn't put it past Shasta and Greenie to come up with a scheme like this.

Now the only problem is of course that the actual seer (Lottie) dreamt of Greenie and ruined their scheme. Incredibly bad luck! But my point is, if we believe Eönwë and Lottie are the wolves, it's their own fault they are both in the spotlight. But if Shasta and Greenie are the wolves, they intended only one of them to be in the spotlight toDay.

Ergo, wolf!Shasta and wolf!Greenie's plot would be much smarter than wolf!Eönwë and wolf!Lottie's, and in ww I rather overestimate than underestimate people.

Anyway, this maths of mine comforts me a little. If Eönwë is innocent like I would guess if I really had to choose, then there's no way it's a devious masterplan and Shasta's actually Saruman, because he and Greenie would have had no way of knowing Greenie too would be a lynch candidate.

And if Eönwë is Saruman, we are really well off. If he's a regular sorcerer and Lottie's Saruman (which absolutely makes no sense whatsoever), then we are in some trouble but the trouble's no bigger than what is sort of encoded in the rules anyway (and we can blame the moddess if we lose ).

Ergo, I don't really care whether we lynch Eönwë or Greenie even though I believe Lottie over Shasta.


edit: xed with Eönwë

[McCaber]

++ Eonwe

I think he's more likely to be an evil wizard than not. But even if we're wrong we're not in terrible shape here.

[Coppermirror]

++Eönwë

I'm in agreement with the arguments in favour of lynching him here. And we'll be okay even if we're wrong.

[Eönwë]

Well, I suppose I might as well:

++Eonwe

[Eönwë]

Well, good luck, village.