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01-07-2011, 04:18 PM | #321 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
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Okay, how should I put this: I am not that sad about the two deaths toNight, because it has eliminated two people I have been rather unsure about. Which sort of clears the field.
Nonetheless, I think it is about time for us to get a Wolf. The village is getting smaller, too small for four Wolves AND two kills per Night. Also, the fact that even the Cobbler is still around makes me rather nervous. So... what about those of my suspects, then, who are still alive. Skip, Boro, Rikae? Nessa, who escaped the gallows yesterDay, and what about again Zil, her gallant savior? And who knows about Pitchwife? Or what about all the quieter folk? Don't we have a team, after all, which is made only out of them? (Something like Greenie-Mänwe-LRH-Cailín/Nessa/BG or something... would actually make a lot of sense, especially in relation to the first Night awkward kills. Maybe if I scratch Greenie from that and make it one of the five, it would make the most sense, as there is a slight chance Greenie would not like to kill Ozban or Kath.) I guess I will just leave now - I am actually feeling quite tired and sleepy; I would like to look at and consider why Lommy and Val have been targeted. I am not really in the mood right now, though, I will do it in the morning - I am sure meanwhile somebody else will look at it too, but still. In any case, it will be also interesting to read what other people think. EDIT: x-ed with Agan and Zil
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01-07-2011, 04:21 PM | #322 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
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Nonetheless, I really have to wait for your answer (unless it is super-fast) till morning, I really have to go to sleep...
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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01-07-2011, 04:25 PM | #323 | |
Gruesome Spectre
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01-07-2011, 04:27 PM | #324 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
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What else could you say, anyway. Okay, will be back in some later hours.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
01-07-2011, 04:29 PM | #325 |
Gruesome Spectre
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Precisely. I don't think it's likely people are going to simply take my word for it.
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01-07-2011, 04:32 PM | #326 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Well, Inzil ought to to a bit better job of explaining than "swayed by Nessa" if he wants to be let off the hook. Clearly the outcome was very important to him, but he wasn't the one being lynched at the end there.
Lommy voted for him, and Valier suspected him. Continued framing attempt? It's pretty extreme, for that. Double bluff? The way the lynch went yesterDay, it would seem at least one of Nessa or Inzil has to be a wolf, or at least at the time I was thinking "there wouldn't be these many waiting until the last minute unless a wolf was on the line". Still, I suppose it's always possible that the wolves are trying to push the predictable lynch of Inzil because they can (rather than because Nessa is a wolf); and, on the other hand, I don't like his passive response at all. It doesn't strike me as innocentish, certainly not framed-innocentish. |
01-07-2011, 04:40 PM | #327 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Well, Inzil ought to to a bit better job of explaining than "swayed by Nessa" if he wants to be let off the hook. Clearly the outcome was very important to him, but he wasn't the one being lynched at the end there.
Lommy voted for him, and Valier suspected him. Continued framing attempt? It's pretty extreme, for that. Double bluff? The way the lynch went yesterDay, it would seem at least one of Nessa or Inzil has to be a wolf, or at least at the time I was thinking "there wouldn't be these many waiting until the last minute unless a wolf was on the line". Still, I suppose it's always possible that the wolves are trying to push the predictable lynch of Inzil because they can (rather than because Nessa is a wolf); and, on the other hand, I don't like his passive response at all. It doesn't strike me as innocentish, certainly not framed-innocentish. |
01-07-2011, 04:42 PM | #328 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
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01-07-2011, 04:44 PM | #329 |
Fading Fëanorion
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A look at the votes first.
Nessa -> Rikae (no solid reason - needs to contribute more, or eventually she'll wind up lynched) BG -> Nessa (didn't contribute much either, but avoided the spotlight so far) Loslote -> Kitanna skip -> e_d (not happy with him. One I'd like to look at closer toDay) Eomer -> Nessa(2) (not too happy with him either, but I recall that I'm always worried about him, so unless he worries me a lot, I'll let him be) Shasta -> Lottie (I should have a closer look at his case before I pass judgement) Pitch -> Nessa(3) (confused about him - definitely need a closer look) Valier -> Skip Greenie -> Inzil (not sure, not sure) Rikae -> Lottie(2), then Inzil (3) (I don't see why wolf-Rikae would have done this; Inzil's guilt would clear her) Lommy -> Inzil(2) Cailín -> Lottie(2) (she thought she gave Lottie her third vote, not sure what to think of her at this point) Mac -> Lottie(3) (I was getting worried about all the people thinking I'm innocent - sometimes giving a crucial vote for an innocent pays off ) e_d -> Lottie (4) (don't know what to think at all) Aganzir -> Nessa (4) (alright) Legate -> Nessa(5) (alright) Inzil -> Lottie(5) (Nessa=wolf => Inzil=bad) Nessa's guilt would more or less clear all her voters. She was an unlikely wolf-on-wolf victim, since a bandwaggon against her was very probable from the beginning on. Back later with thoughts about the killed and what I said above. |
01-07-2011, 04:52 PM | #330 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Ok, so I double posted because of something weird going on with the site - sorry about that. Anyway:
Inzil, how does making the right choice necessitate waiting until the very last second? Also, what is "Legate 180" supposed to mean? At any rate, it makes perfect sense IF the wolves thought Inzil was seer-dreamed to go after the possible seer(s) and sacrifice him toDay to save the rest. So it may indeed be in our best interests to go with the obvious choice, but I, for one, intend to take a close look at everyone I can. |
01-07-2011, 05:37 PM | #331 | |||
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Quiet can't be so black or white, for in those names that Legate mentioned there are those who have made the odd post, and those that have popped in to vote; two very different quiet "strategies" if you will...elronds_daughter being case in point with two very wild votes. Also, Legate Quote:
Maybe more questions ought to be asked of the two extremes, those who just pop into vote and those who do the most talking..
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01-07-2011, 05:41 PM | #332 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
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Music alone proves the existence of God. Last edited by Inziladun; 01-07-2011 at 05:42 PM. Reason: x/d with Mänwe |
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01-07-2011, 05:49 PM | #333 | ||
Wight of the Old Forest
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In other news, I'm beginning to have second thoughts about Nessa. I mean, it all fits - two innocents lynched to save her two Days in a row, with a Night-kill pointing to her sandwiched between them - but isn't it all a bit obvious? And I've got to admit that her last minute defense of Lottie, at a time when it looked like she'd most likely be lynched, is a point in her favour. Anyway, I feel I've been concentrating on her a bit too exclusively and need to have a look at some other people - after some hours of sleep. See ya.
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01-07-2011, 06:00 PM | #334 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
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Also, I think it's ironic that it's being considered that Nessa and I are packmates, when the first thing people really started suspecting me for was my criticism of her "numbers" post.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. |
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01-07-2011, 06:02 PM | #335 | |||
Mellifluous Maia
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If' you're going to start "TLDNR"ing, we might as well just quit. It defeats the whole purpose of WW. Quote:
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If I were a Pitchwolf, I'd back off Nessa now, too, if she were innocent. Edit: X'd with Zil. |
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01-07-2011, 06:08 PM | #336 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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I guess this is the defense of Lottie that rang with such sincerity:
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01-07-2011, 06:14 PM | #337 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I think I was in the game myself and it had to do something with Legate changing his opinion into the opposite.. and there were some drastic consequences if I recall it right. Someone else with better memory might be able to fill you up. But yes, I'd say it means changing your view on some issue to the opposite nowadays...
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01-07-2011, 06:15 PM | #338 | |||
Gruesome Spectre
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Music alone proves the existence of God. Last edited by Inziladun; 01-07-2011 at 06:16 PM. Reason: x/d with Nogmod |
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01-07-2011, 06:30 PM | #339 |
Fading Fëanorion
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Lommy was after Inzil quite a bit, but I don't think in a way that looks seerish. Other than that, her suspicions are rather wide-spread (#272). Nessa, Skip, e_d, and Wilwa are her other main suspects, quite a few of which gathered votes yesterDay. Unless Lommy was very correct and the wolves wanted her out of the way, I think this points the other way: we were completely off and the wolves wanted us to remain off. Lommy will later back off Nessa slightly.
There were a few people who were starting to suspect Valier, so this kill is interesting. Valier thinks the wolves might be framing Inzil and later she starts suspecting Skip. In her list, she suspects Pitch, Inzil, Boro, Legate to varying degrees. Prime suspect is Skip, who she votes. I don't think her suspicion of Skip seems seer-ish either. There aren't any very strong cases except Skip, so a kill with the idea of leaving only one wrong trail seems possible. Two people who suspected Skip more or less strongly are dead. I find it hard to believe that the wolves would be so obvious in killing off dangerous villagers. I mean, if you have two kills, would you dare to get rid of two who suspect one particular wolf at once? I would think that's too obvious. Both also suspected Inzil. Either the wolves really enjoy torturing Inzil, or Inzil is one heck of a cocky wolf, or the wolves identified Inzil as the cobbler and are putting him to work accordingly. Of course, it's highly unlikely that there wasn't a wolf or two in Lommy's and Valier's rather long lists of suspects, but I can't tell who it might have been. Last edited by Macalaure; 01-07-2011 at 06:33 PM. Reason: replacing the one h word for the other |
01-07-2011, 06:36 PM | #340 |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.
But after a few Days have passed, and more substantial information is appearing... This really gives me a strange feeling. That's an odd thing to say after losing the Hunter and two ordos in one go.
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01-07-2011, 06:43 PM | #341 | ||
Mellifluous Maia
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01-07-2011, 06:58 PM | #342 |
Mellifluous Maia
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You know what's funny? I suspect everyone else that has posted so far (and where is everyone else? We're three hours in!) except Mac.
Perhaps I should suspect him as well. Mac, why are you sitting over there looking so suspicious? Oh yeah, the goatee. Explain it! There, my obligatory wolf on wolf... er, I mean... |
01-07-2011, 07:04 PM | #343 | |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Now, i'm off to sleep before work tomorrow.
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"I am, I fear, a most unsatisfactory person."
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01-07-2011, 07:06 PM | #344 | |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Goatees are only incriminating on females, not so sure about Mac.
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01-07-2011, 07:22 PM | #345 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Now you did it. Now no one wants to post because it will reveal them as losers with nothing to do on the weekend!
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01-07-2011, 07:30 PM | #346 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
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Just some quick notes because the hour is late here and I should go to sleep.
I am sorry Lommy was killed. I had her down as an innocent from Day 1, and I know most people trusted her. I'll have a look at her posts but think she was a target simply because of that. Valier however... I think the wolves might have seen a potential Seer in her. She's always been very good at uncovering wolves and her suspicion of Skip was random enough (as in, she did not give any empirical evidence or analysis and she was the only one really singling him out as a wolf). I don't think we should disregard that - even if she did not dream of him, I would not ignore InnocentValier's suspicions. Definitely will be looking at Skip toDay. Quote:
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01-07-2011, 07:36 PM | #347 | |
Shade of Carn Dűm
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Ouch. That hurt just to think about. Everyone meeting knights without me? The Night kills have all been very strangely-placed; everyone is either no-trace, tied to someone with a high profile case going on, or overtly conspicuous.
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01-07-2011, 08:31 PM | #348 |
Werewolf Psychic
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I would just like to point out that a nearly-indecent amount of discussion this game has been about things that 'just HAVE to be too obvious for a wolf to do'. I'm not sure what it means, but I felt it needed to be pointed out.
Back later.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
01-07-2011, 08:55 PM | #349 | |||
Fading Fëanorion
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I need to clear my head about him.
Pitchwife Day 1 #15 Quote:
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#22 - defends Cailín's early vote. #27 - asks Sally and Rikae regarding their suspicion, understandably. Early Day1 in general - much role/rule talk, but a few actual points, so that's good - his tone is oddly relaxed though, but maybe that's just him. He looks pretty well for the rest of the day until voting time He clears his mind in #110, but then the next few posts are just chat, like he's killing time for an opportune moment to cast the vote. (1h time between #110 and his vote in #132, with a few meaningless posts in between.) Usually an innocent would use the time to make up their mind some more. His vote makes sense considering what he said before (with me and e_d in the running other than Nessa), but why the unproductive waiting period? Day 2 Starts out using Ozban's death to go after Nessa more (all of #183). This looks like it could have been planned. His second post is about Kath, but he finds nothing of note. Goes after Inzil a bit. #189 implies that he thinks the Sally-waggon was innocently fueled, which is odd, since it overtook the waggon he himself fueled. It's uncommon to clear an opposing bandwaggon of suspicion, especially without much reasons. Attempt not to ruffle innocent feathers? #262 - his q&a for me looks innocent. #275 Quote:
Inzil was the only person other than Nessa he brought forth any reasons against. This fits with the "not ruffling innocent feathers". He predictably votes for Nessa again. Day 3 #333 today he backs away from Nessa and instead goes after Inzil again. Not much variation. I can't condemn him - there are too many stretches where he looks rather innocent. However, I think there are some points which paint a dark picture. Last edited by Macalaure; 01-07-2011 at 08:56 PM. Reason: adding a post number |
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01-07-2011, 09:48 PM | #350 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Quote:
More on that.
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01-07-2011, 09:53 PM | #351 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Same goes for Inzil, as I mentioned.
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01-07-2011, 10:25 PM | #352 |
Laconic Loreman
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The thing with Inzil's clear 180 flip is it's an extremely obvious tip-off. I don't know if the wolves would stick out their neck that far to save another, even with the 2-kill incentive, since that basically condemns both of them.
Unless, with his packmate Nessa being the one in danger, and in order to preserve the 2-kills saved her, and then went after two people who suspected him, fearing the seer had dreamed of him already?
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01-08-2011, 04:46 AM | #353 | |||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
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And as for the thing about Greenie not killing Oz and Kath: I am not 100% sure (well, not by far! more like 50%, but still), I believe Greenie might have raised some objections to Ozzy being killed so early on, given that they haven't been playing together much, and this is Ozzy's second game. It is slightly meta-reasoning, and I am not giving it that much weight, like I said, but if the kills were made completely randomly (as it seems to me - no real Seer-reasoning, etc.), I could imagine she would have chosen somebody else for a random first kill. Similarly with Kath, I could imagine her wanting to play with her for longer time than just one Day, if possible. Of course, like I have already said before about similar subject, one Wolf's choices can be overriden by packmates etc., but still, it is a factor: usually, if one Wolf says: "No, I would prefer not to kill XY", then others usually follow it, unless they have really good and really important reasons to do it. Quote:
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This is most puzzling, as basically most my suspects turn somewhat less likely to be actually Wolves. Skip would now make a lot less sense. There is still Rikae or Boro. I am just... puzzled. And for that matter, I would really most likely drop Zil for toDay. Let's also not forget what he himself had said, that he was the likely target for a Seer dream after what he has done. Maybe we should not worry about that. Quote:
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But in general, I agree with the preceding statement - that is, it indeed condemns both of them, and it would mean at most one more Day of life - unless they indeed counted it being so obvious that we would not dare to count it as a Wolf-save. A true double-bluff.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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01-08-2011, 05:19 AM | #354 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Inzil looks bad. I don't know if the wolves would really take so much pains to frame a single innocent. To state the obvious, he is either
a) a misguided innocent who honestly made a mistake at the end of yesterDay. Possible, I suppose. However, the timing of his vote is as last minute as can be, it looks calculated. The resigned attitude toDay doesn't look innocent to me, either. We need to catch a wolf, and if he is innocent he should speak out for himself so we don't make the wrong choice. b) a wolf. If Inzil is a wolf, it would point to Nessa being one too, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered. It would have been a pretty extreme move for a wolf though, since in saving one wolf he would have two of them highly suspected the next Day. Is the two kills per Night advantage that important to them? Or do we have an insanely bold pack who decided to sacrifice half of them to cause havoc and let the other half slip by unnoticed? No, it wouldn't make sense unless Inzil believed himself already seer-dreamed, but the Night's kills speak against that - neither Valier nor Lommy seemed like Seers who had dreamed Inzilwolf. Or was he just otherwise certain he and Nessa were going to be suspected the next Day anyway? c) a cobbler. This is actually beginning to look like the most sensible option to me. A cobbler would be ready to make a drastic move to save a believed wolf from the gallows - or even, come to think of it, an innocent, thus misleading the village royally. His "kill me if you like, but you're wasting your time" -attitude looks quite cobblerish, too. If I have the time I might go through Inzil's early posts to see if there is anything resembling a cobbler hint. His previous behaviour struck me more wolvish than cobblerish though. Gah. Enough about Inzil, there are sixteen other people to look at. Well, fifteen. For example, I haven't seen any talk at all about the Lottie-wagon. What, exactly, were the arguments for lynching her? Quote:
EDIT: ouch, x-ed with Legate's novel!
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01-08-2011, 05:28 AM | #355 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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01-08-2011, 05:39 AM | #356 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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I will probably have to vote really early toDay, maybe something like three or four hours from now. I might be back before DL but since I can't be sure I rather vote early to be on the safe side. I can then use my retraction if I return in time and if I consider it necessary. I'd like to have a look at Eomer, Elra, Wilwa and Cailín at least, I'm not sure if I have time for all of that. They are not necessarily submarines, but they are people I have no opinion of, and people that are not really talked about much.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
01-08-2011, 06:32 AM | #357 |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
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Back with some general thoughts...
This far, as I said, I'd be suspicious of Rikae, but be it not for her retraction yesterDay. Since Lottie is innocent, it is somewhat hard to imagine Wolf to retract like this. I went through Greenie's posts now too and they also look more innocent-ish to me than not. I might really want to focus on and possibly vote for some of the "quiet ones" toDay. But that means LRH (whose vote yesterDay was rather suspiciously placed, at least, and question is about the first Day, as we don't know about Pitch's guilt or innocence) BG, possibly Mänwe (though I am careful about suspecting him too easily, after the last fiasco I remember from when playing with him, it was all too easy to lynch him). I am going to focus on them a bit. I also should try to take once again a new, "from-scratch", objective look at Nessa... I don't want to lynch Zil just now. Only if I don't come up with anything better. Also wondering if I should start looking at Shasta more closely. He's been slipping under my radar quite interestingly enough. Will be around or back later...
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
01-08-2011, 06:45 AM | #358 | ||
Fading Fëanorion
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Last edited by Macalaure; 01-08-2011 at 06:45 AM. Reason: xd with Legate |
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01-08-2011, 06:49 AM | #359 | |
Fading Fëanorion
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01-08-2011, 06:51 AM | #360 | ||||
Woman of Secret Shadow
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As I said Lommy's death doesn't come as a surprise - but according to my notes, nobody thought Valier was innocent. I'm wondering if they went for her as a potential seer - or if their real target was Lommy as a potential seer and they threw in Valier just to confuse us. I don't like the situation too much: the kills seem to implicate certain people who have been suspected anyway, but we can't tell if they are actually wolves or if the wolves just want us to believe so, and we never lynch any of them. Quote:
And even if they're both wolves, I think it would have been worth it to save her. As far as I recall, neither of them had been attacking the other strongly, so giving the decisive vote wouldn't necessarily have cleaned them. And if two wolves are suspected heavily, their actions are often damage control rather than trying to wriggle out of the noose. Quote:
By the way, if we don't get any wolves (or ranger saves), it will be 5-6 the day after tomorrow.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 01-08-2011 at 06:52 AM. Reason: xed with Mac |
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