Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Gurthang]

After viewing a lot of posts today, I've become more suspect of some and less of others. It's a tough decision. I think most of us are satisfied, for now, with LMP, and it looks like the choice is between dancing spawn and Laitaine. (By the way, Boromir, Laitaine has that second 'i' in it. ) Between those two, I am hardly suspicious of dancing spawn, so I feel that I must vote for:

++Laitaine

Votes so far:

dancing spawn - 2
Laitaine - 4

With five left to vote, it can still go anywhere.

[Nonnacedak]

Well its about that time where I must head back to my humble shack and hit the hay stack and that means I must vote.

I still havent heard any kind of defense from Laitaine so that even strengthens my suspicions.

++Laitaine

Hopefully we find out much in the morning to come!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by SpM

I presume that you mean arcticstorm.

Oh, that's right, arcticstorm, of course.

But that's rather a strange thing to say, isn't it?

No, it isn't, thank you very much. It would have left us much more clues if the bear had killed arcticstorm and the remaining wolf had picked another target.

Originally Posted by SpM...again

Can't you just tell us which way you are thinking with regard to the beasts? But now you have retired to bed without having done so.

Yes, I can tell you but not in the middle of the night.

The living are:

Boromir88, I believe he's innocent. His voting hasn't been suspicious at all. I also had the theory somewhere back on the first pages that Gurthang, Boromir, mormegil & Alcarillo are innocent and I still believe that that's the case.
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant, I know for a fact that she's innocent.
Durelin, As I said earlier, she has done some pretty weird things earlier but as I read her posts over and over again I'm inclined to believe that she's innocent.
Gurthang, I don't think he has acted suspiciously. At least if we look at his votes. He keeps track of villagers' behaviour and keeps things nicely in order. I think a werecreature (or the cobbler) would try to confuse us more.
Laitaine, Many of you suspect her and your reasoning sounds very plausible. Arcticstorm suspected her to be the bear very early on. She votes always for a person who doesn't previously have any votes. I think it's little odd to throw your votes around like that.
Lalaith, I can't tell much of her votes but I think her suspicions of Boromir and Gurthang were odd. Also, it seemed to me that she's trying to avoid the spotlight by shifting some blame on me (page 6). But that might be nothing.
littlemanpoet, I still think that something's not right with him for reasons I've said a few times before. His rant was cute, though.
Meneltarmacil, Can't say that I'd be any suspicious of him. He has voted twice for a known wolf at a very early stage.
Nonnacedak, I think he has acted quite suspiciously by trying to emphasize his innocence but funny enough, I'm starting to believe him.
SamwiseGamgee, He has managed to fly under my radar but closer examination of his behaviour reveals nothing wolvish or bearish in him.
The Saucepan Man, he is either an innocent or the bear. Out of all people he'd be able to play the bear so boldly. He acts as suspiciously as the next guy but just because he points that out himself it doesn't make him guilty? See how his suspects have a tendency to end up lynched? He's very persuasive though he doesn't directly tell us how to vote. If he's the bear, he is extremely dangerous.

There. That's what I think of my fellow villagers. Almost anyone can still be the bear. And now I have to leave you for a while (still not finished with the biggest glass vase ever). I'll be back.

[Lalaith]

One problem I have with coming to a decision is that I really have no idea who the Seer is. I have a list of about four who I've worked out almost certainly *aren't* the Seer, a couple of unlikelies, but other than that, who knows. I'm glad s/he's still around, though.

I hadn't really thought about Laitaine as a suspect too much, but her insistence on Nonnacedak being a wolf, in the face of all evidence to the contrary, is really odd. (If Spawn is right about there being no rules for were-ish behaviour, then I suppose it is just conceivable that Nonna is a wolf. But I would be a very suprised soothsayer indeed if it were the case.)

[Lalaith]

One thing that has just occurred to me is that Laitaine has said she won't be here today. I feel slightly uncomfortable about lynching someone in their absence.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

This is my last chance to speak toDay and I'm in a terrible hurry.

We all seem to agree that we want the last wolf dead before the bear or cobbler. In that case I think that Laitaine is a very good choice.

However, if you decide to lynch me I suggest a double lyncing. Take someone with me cause otherwise you still have two werebeasts and the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

One thing that has just occurred to me is that Laitaine has said she won't be here today. I feel slightly uncomfortable about lynching someone in their absence.

I'm glad that didn't stop us lynching Mith on the first day.

++Laitaine

[Lalaith]

Ok, I'll spell out what I was trying to hint at in my posts above and why I'm unhappy about lynching absentees.

The Seer has kept very quiet so far. If our lynch victim is the Seer, s/he can at least have a chance to jump in before the end and tell us what s/he knows before death, but if s/he isn't even there, then we will be none the wiser.
Now, I don't particularly think Laitaine is the Seer. But then again I have no idea who the Seer is.

[The Saucepan Man]

I had rather hoped that things would be clearer when I woke up. Unfortunately, they are not. Well, dancing spawn has given us the benefit of her thoughts, at least. But they do not dispel my doubts over her.

Still, Laitaine is now going to be lynched whichever way I vote. Unfortunately, we cannot read too much into dancing spawn's vote to seal Laitaine's fate, because it came down to either her or Laitaine.

I had been toying with the idea of a double lynching. Admittedly, it could potentially have resulted in the death of four innocents before Day 5 begins, rather than three, but it would eliminate two strong suspects. In any event, a double lynching is now impossible.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

The Seer has kept very quiet so far. If our lynch victim is the Seer, s/he can at least have a chance to jump in before the end and tell us what s/he knows before death, but if s/he isn't even there, then we will be none the wiser.

A fair point, and one which I had in mind too. I think that it is very unlikely that she's the Seer, but I'm willing to wait until nearer the deadline to see if she does turn up.

[littlemanpoet]

After you have "offed" me tomorrow, or whomever, please take a look at how Menelmacar always seems to see which way the wind blows, then make others' reasoning his own in his posts. Maybe once you see after my future lynching that I am indeed innocent, you might just bag this guy as a werebeast in the nick of time.

I shall be out of the village for much of the upcoming Night and Day, only returning soon enough to cast a vote late in the Day; since I'm sure, being as suspicious as I am, the werebeasts will conveniently (to them) let me live.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by LMP

After you have "offed" me tomorrow, or whomever, please take a look at how Menelmacar always seems to see which way the wind blows, then make others' reasoning his own in his posts. Maybe once you see after my future lynching that I am indeed innocent, you might just bag this guy as a werebeast in the nick of time.

It has not gone unnoticed, LMP, by me at least. You are still on my "Bear watch" list, but as you become more Cobbleresque (great word Boromir ), Meneltarmacil is becoming a strong contender.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, it doesn't look like Laitaine's coming back. Let's hope that she is the lone Wolf.

++ LAITAINE

[Lalaith]

I'm just not convinced enough about Laitaine, despite the weird stuff about Nonnacedak. I'm inclined to not vote at all, frankly, but that's against my principles. But I don't want the risk of a double lynching either, with two deaths a night already(possibly) I'm just not convinced that two deaths a day is a good idea.
So as it's kind of inevitable already, I'll go for:
++Laitaine

Sorry, my dear rhymster, if we're sniffing up the wrong tree.

[Lalaith]

My computer is slow, I didn't see SpM's vote above before I posted. Just for the record.

[Shelob]

The sun's dying light swept over the towns central polygon
It was settled, the minstrel would play her own funeral song.
The villagers went to where poor Laitaine sat alone,
In the shadows none saw how long her face had grown.
"We're sorry" one said, with the noose in his hands,
"But we're at a loss, you know how it stands."
She said it was alright, that there was no need,
She understood their plight, for her life wouldn't plead.
They lead her then to the gallows with care,
For one never knew with the wolves-of-the-were.
With the noose around her neck, the sun sank ever more,
The seeming peaceful Laitaine let out a fearful roar.
Her slowly growing face exploded with out cause
Her fingers dropped her recorder, it's too hard to play with claws.
As one the remaining villagers leapt back in fear and shock,
But for a moment, before they leapt at her with tooth, nail and rock.
The fight lasted but a little while, what with the odds and all.
The villagers returned to homes, fearing no wolfish call
But by her body a villager stood, seeming sad, with head hung
The bear remains and changes slow for

NIGHT 5 HAS NOW BEGUN.

Living:

Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4

[Oddwen]

The Villagers awoke with a new spring in their step - no more Werewolves! Now there need only be one kill in the NIGHT. Wait a minute...'kill'...what did that remind them of?

Oh yeah. One of their number was missing.

After making a list and checking it twice, they went off to the perpetually nice Soothsayer's house. They hardly bothered to knock, but went inside.

Alas, Lalaith lay there on the floor, her head flattened by the paw of the bear. Beside her was a scribbled note, reading "Sooth! Sooth! Sooth! Soooooooth!"

Nobody knew what it meant. Ah, wait a minute...in her closet, there was a new suit. Of course, she was talking about a new suit! With that cleared up and their demeanor as cheerful as it could be under the circumstances, they started the talks for the DAY.


Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4
Lalaith (Villager) - Verily and forsooth, she was crushed on NIGHT 5


It's now DAY 5. Y'all know what to do.

[Gurthang]

Poor, Lalaith. I can honestly say she her soothing was always calming to me. I wonder why this beast would choose her? Alas the time to mourn is not now, but will come soon.

Well, congratulations to everyone on getting all three wolves in just four days. We only lost one innocent to our own hands in the process, giving us a 75% accuracy! Let's keep up the good work, and we can get this bear in a Day or two.

If our Seer has found our bear, I suggest stepping out so we can finish this today. If you haven't, well, then don't.

Now, we can concentrate on catching that bear. So far we have had mixed feelings about who to go after, but now we all have one objective.

I'm still leaning towards LMP being the cobbler, which means I have no idea what to do with him now. I was suspicious of Durelin on day one, so I think I will go back again and see if I can find anything in her posts.


P.S. After Saucepan shows us his newest voting list, I'll see about making another post including all of them.

[The Saucepan Man]

Alas poor Lalaith! I suspected her, Villagers.

In fact, I had her pinned for either a Wolf or the Seer. The latter being the reason why I never voted for her, or suggested others should, despite her being one of my chief suspects. It seems the Bear may have thought that she was the Seer too, which is interesting.

I am not sure that yester-Day's voting will tell us much concerning the Bear. But here it is in any event:

1. LMP for dancing spawn (dancing spawn - 1)
2. SamwiseGamgee for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 1; Laitaine - 1)
3. Meneltarmacil for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 1; Laitaine - 2)
4. Durelin for dancing spawn (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 2)
5. Boromir88 for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 3)
6. Gurthang for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 4)
7. Nonnacedak for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 5)
8. Dancing spawn for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 6)
9. SpM for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 7)
10. Lalaith for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 8)

Unfortunately, voting patterns tell us much less about the Bear than they did about the Wolves. But they may help, so it is worth looking at them.

I really do not have a lot to go on as for as the Bear is concerned at the moment. LMP remains my chief suspect, although he may well also be the Cobbler. And, if he is not the Bear, then what he said at the end of yester-Day concerning Meneltarmacil makes some sense.

I will not be around now for a few hours, but will return later to share what further thoughts I may have.

PS I wonder what the Cobbler will do now? Now his/her team has lost, will s/he throw his/her lot in with the Villagers or the Bear? Or simply give up contributing ...?

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by Saucepan Man
I wonder what the Cobbler will do now? Now his/her team has lost, will s/he throw his/her lot in with the Villagers or the Bear? Or simply give up contributing ...?

Or try to force us into a multiple lynch the last day so nobody wins. In which case it would be better to be rid of him.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I'm still leaning towards LMP being the cobbler, which means I have no idea what to do with him now.

Yeah, it isn't the cobbler's duty to help the bear win, now is it?

Originally Posted by SpM

It seems the Bear may have thought that she was the Seer too

Interesting thought. Well, it's time for me to go back to read Lalaith's posts. I'll post more in a few hours.

[SamwiseGamgee]

So hands up if you're not the werebear and thougfht it'd be a great idea! But seriously, we did well, fellow villagers, and now we know there is but one evil being left in our midst. However, the hard work is just beginning. This Beorning isn't going to be easy to find. I have my suspicions, but the more I think over the subject the more I realise that perhaps those I suspect least of all and have even come to trust may be the bear. *gasp* But anyway, whatever we've been doing thus far it's worked pretty well, I would say, and so we should keep at it. I'll post later this evening/night when I've looked back over the thread. I leave you with my thought for the day: Trust nobody.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

There are basically two people who seem bearish to me.

I'm willing to believe that SpM is on our side though I suspected him before. I just can't understad why he isn't dead yet. There aren't many who suspect him (at least in public) and he's been very helpful in the werecreature hunting. He also has a habit of making strong cases against people finding quotes, good reasons and searching every inch. The odd thing is that then he steps back and says that it might be that way, who knows, and lets us start voting.

Anyway, my first bear candidate is Meneltarmacil.

Originally Posted by Menel, #189

I wonder why ye Beare killed Enca? She was ye quieteste person in ye village. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to try and silence someone who's barely spoken.

That was a bit odd statement (Samwise noticed that, too).

Originally Posted by Menel, #205

I believe it likely that ye Beare was among those who voted for ye Captain yesterDaye. Ye Beare was probably one of ye people who caste a lot of suspicione on him too, as it would drawe it awaye from him/herselfe. I muste be off soone, but after I returne in a fewe hours, I shall reviewe postes by those such as Boromir88...

I admit that sounds reasonable. However, he voted for CoD himself but because he brought this up, it makes him look innocent. A wise bearish tactic?

Menel has voted all three wolves + CoD, so he's been mostly helpful but if it's really the bear's interest to get rid of the wolves, Menel would have done great job as one.

Then there's lmp. I'm a bit afraid to make a case against him because he might throw custard pies at me or have a tantrum but I'm going to say this nevertheless. Look at Arcticstorm's post here and how lmp answered it. I think it seems a bit over-selfdefensive considering that arcticstorm said that it might just be an attempt to frame lmp up. Lalaith seemed suspicious of lmp as well and now she's dead, too. Wether lmp isn't the bear and this is a frame-up or then he's indeed the last werebeast and he's kind of double bluffing.

This isn't particularly bearish but take a look at lmp's post #230 . It seems that he's practically saying that Boromir is a gifted. Wouldn't a regular innocent want to keep it to himself if he thinks he's found a gifted?

I think lmp's post #275 is just really weird. Lalaith had some interesting points in her post #290 . I'm more inclined to think that lmp's the cobbler than a bear but who knows. At least his voting seems cobblerish.

Ok, that was confusing but so are my thoughts. I'll be back later.

[Nonnacedak]

Hurray the wolfs are no more! We just need the bear and we will finally be able to sleep well at night. Im about as lost as the rest of you on this one. Hopefully we wont lynch the seer tonight so he/she can have a bearish dream.

Your thoughts on Meneltarmacil are interesting. Its to bad we cant go off voting patterns anymore. That really helped a lot.

Ill have to scour the posts to come up with any sort of help.

Great job everyone on the wolf massacre.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few further thoughts.

(NB My use of masculine pronouns should not be taken as indicating that I believe the Bear to be male - he or she could be either gender.)

First, a question. How quickly would the Beorning want to kill off the Werewolves? While they are alive, he benefits from the two kills per Night. There is a chance that they will kill him, but he knows that they will not be wanting to do so because they want two kills per Night and they win if he is the only other Villager left standing with them at the end. The risk the Bear takes by keeping them alive is that they will mistakenly kill him, believing him to be innocent (or Gifted).

I am not sure of the answer, but I do wonder whether the Beorning will have wanted the Wolves killed off quite so quickly. It seems to me that he would at least have wanted the last Wolf to remain alive a little longer.

Now, we could not be sure that Laitaine was the last Wolf, but she was certainly a prime candidate. Only LMP and Durelin voted for dancing spawn. Problem is, dancing spawn was quite high on most people's suspicion lists too. One of them is probably the Cobbler. That doesn't necessarily mean that the other is the Bear, but it's worth "bearing" in mind.

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

This isn't particularly bearish but take a look at lmp's post #230 . It seems that he's practically saying that Boromir is a gifted. Wouldn't a regular innocent want to keep it to himself if he thinks he's found a gifted?

But wouldn't the Bear simply have killed Boromir88 himself last night if he thought him Gifted? LMP's statement seems more likely to have been a Cobbleresque signal to the Wolves.

But let's face it, the Bear could be just about anyone. By my calculation, we have about four Days maximum (including today) to find him. Otherwise he wins. That doesn't give us a lot of wiggle room.

Boromir88 said yester-Day that he had an idea to find the Bear. I hope that we will hear from him soon.

[Durelin]

Notice that pretty much everyone that The Saucepan Man has been *suspicious* of is dead.

I say that Saucepan Man is the bear.

Or it's someone else.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Durelin, yes, I noticed that, too.

Originally Posted by Me

See how his [SpM] suspects have a tendency to end up lynched? He's very persuasive though he doesn't directly tell us how to vote. If he's the bear, he is extremely dangerous.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I say that Saucepan Man is the bear.

Or it's someone else.

I agree. Except, you can insert any name over SpM's and the sentence still sounds perfectly plausible.

Originally Posted by SpM

But wouldn't the Bear simply have killed Boromir88 himself last night if he thought him Gifted?

Maybe, unless he didn't really mean that or he thought the wolves would take care of Boromir. As I said, it seems more of an action of the cobbler than bear, though.

[Meneltarmacil]

It wille be harde finding ye Beare, but I can telle you now that I am not a Beare no matter what thou thinkest of me. I am merely another innocente like thee. However, I cannot prove my innocence to thee so my statemente helpeth little. But as for Bearish-looking people, I suggeste we looke at Boromir88. He hath been somewhat involved in ye discussiones, but doth not poste as often as ye others here. Perhaps he trieth to stay under ye radar whilst posting juste enoughe to not be extremely suspecte. He putteth in critical votes for Wolves, but as dancing spawn pointeth oute, this maye be in ye Beare's beste intereste.

[Gurthang]

Durelin, I've read through most of your posts. I can't find much 'bearish' activity, but I am not quite sure what to look for. I just have some strange uneasy feeling about you.

Some of you are now leaning on Saucepan Man a little. I have not been suspicious of him before, but that is because he hasn't done anything that I would call suspicious. But, of course, what better place for a bear to hide than right in the forefront of the attack at the wolves. Still, if he were the bear, I think he would have misled us and left the wolves alive a little longer, so he would continue the two kills per night.

Maybe we should take a look at Nonnacedak again. I was satisified with his innocence a while ago, but he really seems to do a good job of staying hidden. He posts little, and seems too worried about people implicating him.

Boromir, you said you had a way to find this bear. I am really at a loss about finding it, so I would love to hear your plan.

[Boromir88]

Me gifted? That's kind of funny.

Anyway, my plan for finding the bear was the bear is probably in the majority each time (which means a lot of people could be suspected), but I'll get all the voters together and see who's name keeps reappearing.

So, I think it's true that the bear doesn't care who gets lynched as long as it's not himself. I don't buy the strategy of the bear wanting to keep the wolves alive, first off, s/he doesn't know who the wolves are, and two it's not him/her that's getting lynched. I just don't think the bear would benefit greatly from the wolves being around.

I mean we have to think that yes the bear benefits from another kill a night with the wolves around, but that other kill could he/she could be the one that's knocked off. Therefor, the bear might want to get rid of the wolves as fast as possible, and again, doesn't matter who gets lynched (wolf or not) as long as it's not him/herself.

Since we've had such a hard time finding the bear at this point, I think the bear is hiding amongst everyone. Hiding in the majority, because right now it appears as anyone could be the bear, and it's hard to pick out one person. But, let's attempt to anyway.

So, Day 1 for Mithalwen (wolf)...

1. Captain of Despair
2. Samwise Gamgee
3. Meneltarmacil
4. Boromir88
5. Alcarillo
6. Nonnacedak
7. Arcticstorm
8. Dancing spawn
9. Saucepan
10. Firefoot.

Day 2, for Captain of Despair (Ranger)...

1. Meneltarmacil
2. Samwise Gamgee
3. Boromir88
4. arcticstorm
5. Dancing Spawn
6. Saucepan
7. Lalaith

Day 3, for Gil-galad (wolf)...

1. Meneltarmacil
2. Boromir88
3. Nonnacedak
4. Gurthang
5. Lalaith
6. Samwise

Day 4, for Laitane (wolf)...

1. SamwiseGamgee
2. Meneltarmacil
3. Boromir88
4. Gurthang
5. Nonnacedak
6. Dancing Spawn
7. Saucepan
8. Lalaith

The ones in bold are the ones that voted in the majority atleast 3 of the 4 times. I believe the bear is one that is in the majority. The problem is only one of these is the bear, the others are innocents. So, here's my further thoughts.

Boromir88- Me? Yes, I vote a lot in the majority, but bear, I can say I'm not.

SamwiseGamgee- Doesn't say too much. Seems to go along with whatever people have to say, doesn't put in much of her (correct?) own imput. Mildy suspicious.

Dancing Spawn- still not convinced one her. She recently has offered some useful information, told us some thoughts on people, not too suspicious, but again mildly.

Meneltarmacil- He does often vote and looking back through some of his posts he's grown in suspicion. Ok so here it is on Menel...

Both mormegil and lalaith voted for Meneltarmacil on Day 1. Both are now dead. Set up? Perhaps Menel thought mormegil was the Seer, as he was the first one to vote for Menel, then decided to whack him that night hoping he found the Seer. Lalaith is now gone I must admit this points to Meneltarmacil.

Also on Day 2 (i'll search for the post number) when deliberations on Captain and Gil-galad began he chimed in for the Seer to dream of whichever one did not die in the lynching. Trying to get the Seer drawn away from you Menel?

He's more than mildly suspicious, but I'm afraid at this stage it's hard to tell, Menel could be the bear, or could just be an innocent, as could everyone.

Finally Saucepan- To be honest, there's nothing I see in Saucepan to suggest that he is the bear. Though I must suppose some suspicion towards him, as no one can be trusted. But, quite frankly, I'm not too concerned about Saucepan being the bear.

Just doesn't fit, Sauce has been vocal, and attempting to help. The bear is extremely hard to locate right now which gets me thinking One, s/he's hiding in the majority, two s/he's quiet and low key.

So that points to...(and in order)

1. Meneltarmacil
2. Samwise
3. Dancing Spawn

Note: This is just my reasoning, please by all means don't think I'm right, decide for yourself. It's just a possibility I am suggesting we all consider.

[Boromir88]

I noticed Nonnacedak has also voted in the majority 3 out of 4 times, so my thoughts on her...

Another one like Samwise, doesn't say a whole lot, so this gets mildly suspicious, but right now I'm not too worried about Nonna either so...

1. Menel
2. Samwise
3. Dancing Spawn
4. Nonnacedak

[Meneltarmacil]

Both mormegil and lalaith voted for Meneltarmacil on Day 1. Both are now dead. Set up? Perhaps Menel thought mormegil was the Seer, as he was the first one to vote for Menel, then decided to whack him that night hoping he found the Seer. Lalaith is now gone I must admit this points to Meneltarmacil.

mormegil was killed by ye Wolves, not ye Beare, so if I was ye Beare (whiche I'm not), I didn't kille him.

Trying to get the Seer drawn away from you Menel?

No, juste trying to finde ye Beare. I am innocente, and if ye Seere did investigate me, he/she woulde see it thus. I was merely advising him/her to dreame about suspiciouse people.

I vote early because I am advised in my householde to "leave ye village hexagon" at a certaine houre and wishe to get my vote in before that houre. Nothing wrong withe that, is there?

Thou appearest to be in ye majority a lot by thine owne admissione, Boromir. By thine owne reasoning, thou lookest Bearish. Defende thyself, if thou canst.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Thanks, Boromir, that was informative.

I believe the bear is one that is in the majority.

I agree that the bear might have voted with the majority once, twice or even three times, but four? Voting majorities of a day have always been under strict observation in case there are bandwagoning wolves. Why would a bear want to risk his/her skin by voting suspiciously? I think it would be clever to vote a few times for someone who has almost enough potential to get lynched but avoids the noose at the end of the day.

[Boromir88]

Mormegil was killed by wolves? I didn't see this, all I read from the post of who was killed at night was he was blown up. If this is the case, then my idea isn't as strong.

As for the defense of myself Meneltarmacil. One, you haven't offered a lot on why you are suspicious of me. But, what you have offered, I will say...

He hath been somewhat involved in ye discussiones, but doth not poste as often as ye others here. Perhaps he trieth to stay under ye radar whilst posting juste enoughe to not be extremely suspecte.

I don't post a lot simply because I don't have a lot of oppurtunities to post. I can't post in the morning. Then I can't post again til noon, and that's usually only enough time for one post. Then I don't post until after work and after I've eaten. So, that explains why I don't post a lot. I don't think one should base their suspicions on that, but rather what people have to say in their posts.

For example, you don't seem to say a whole lot in your posts. As Saucepan has said it's not a matter of how much you post, but what you say in your posts. Unless I'm wrong, I haven't seen you say a whole lot except what's been going on, same case with Samwise, hence my suspicion of both of you.

Also, you and me are in the same boat for voting early. I don't think we should judge by the time someone votes, but who they've voted for. Time is very tricky as I vote usually around 11 when the news comes on and I'm ready to go to bed, as I do have to get up for work.

If anything, I would think the bear would vote late to try to achieve a double lynching.

As I've said Menel, and to others, my ideas may not be right. And my list doesn't include everyone, therefor, for the ones that don't vote in the majority, here's what I have to say on them. Though I don't think too much of these people being the bear.

Durelin- As I said, she did defend Captain of Despair. I would think a bear would be one in the voting for Captain, as only the bear would know that that person wasn't the bear. Unless she wanted to keep the suspected bear alive as long as possible? As far as the group I did not include above, she is the most suspicious.

Gurthang- He's been helpful, doesn't seem to be the bear. I mean he did have a fit when it was the bear who killed the chicken.

lmp- He has drawn a lot of suspicion but I think he's just the cobbler. He is the prime canidate for the cobbler it seems, as by his own admission he draws a lot of confusion and never did he vote for a wolf I don't think.

I'm making a list just to include everyone on who the bear could be...And due to recent considerations, it has changed.

Right now tied at the top is Menel and Samwise. Menel has come up and explained himself, until I would like to hear from Samwise as she also has been looking closely suspicious.

1. Menel and Samwise-tied
3. Dancing Spawn
4. Durelin
5. Nonnacedak
6. LMP
7. Gurthang
8. Saucepan

I think that's everyone.

[Meneltarmacil]

Mormegil was killed by wolves? I didn't see this, all I read from the post of who was killed at night was he was blown up. If this is the case, then my idea isn't as strong.

Originally posted by Oddwen, emphasis added by me:

Apparently, the Wolves had stuck firecrackers in Morm's (always the heavy sleeper) ears, and set them alight.

[Nonnacedak]

Just to set the record straight on this Im a guy. Anyways right now every person basically has a little suspicion towards them. Thats not making things any easier.

I like what Saucepan was saying about keeping a wolf alive at the end. Right now I guess those that did not vote for Laitaine would be my prime suspects. They would be Durelin and LMP who already had a lot of suspicion on them.

[The Saucepan Man]

Some interesting thoughts, particularly from Boromir88 and dancing spawn:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Anyway, my plan for finding the bear was the bear is probably in the majority each time ...

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

I agree that the bear might have voted with the majority once, twice or even three times, but four? Voting majorities of a day have always been under strict observation in case there are bandwagoning wolves. Why would a bear want to risk his/her skin by voting suspiciously? I think it would be clever to vote a few times for someone who has almost enough potential to get lynched but avoids the noose at the end of the day.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would think a bear would be one in the voting for Captain, as only the bear would know that that person wasn't the bear. Unless she wanted to keep the suspected bear alive as long as possible?

I tend to agree with dancing spawn that the Bear is unlikely to have voted with the majority on every Day. I wonder if perhaps the most instructive vote, in this regard, might be that which led to the lynching of CaptainofDespair. After all, CaptainofDespair was a suspected Bear, not a suspected Wolf. He was unlikely to have been a Wolf for his early vote for Mithalwen on Day 1.

So let's try to look at this vote from the Bear's persepctive. He knows that CaptainofDespair is not the Bear and he is probably pretty certain that he is not a Wolf. In fact, it was clear from what CaptainofDespair said before the voting started that, if he was not the Bear, he was most probably the Ranger (as indeed he was). Now, the Ranger cannot offer protection from the Bear's attacks but he can protect against the Wolves' attacks and therefore limit the Night-time exposure to one kill. So the Bear might well have wanted him kept alive. Also, with two Wolves still alive, the Bear would probably have wanted another Wolf to be lynched on that Day. In addition, CaptainofDespair was a Bear suspect and so, as Boromir88 suggested, it was perhaps in the Bear's interests that he stayed alive. Finally, the Bear knew that CaptainofDespair was probably innocent and that therefore those who voted for him might well be under suspicion the next Day.

All of that would tend to suggest that, on Day 2, the Bear would probably have voted to save CaptainofDespair and kill a Wolf. So, of those who are still alive, who did not vote for CaptainofDespair on Day 2? The following:

Durelin
Nonnacedak
LMP
Gurthang

Durelin voted for me. An unlikely vote for a Bear, because I was never under serious suspicion of being a Wolf (she voted for me as a Bear suspect) and, given the way that the discussion was going, a vote for me was unlikely to save CaptainofDespair. Generally, I feel that she has acted un-Bear-like and so don't regard her with any great suspicion.

Nonnacedak voted for a likely Wolf candidate, Gil-Galad, who was in fact a Wolf. As others have noted, he has said little and, while having an uncanny ability to spot Wolves (fellow lyncanthropes?), has added little to the Bear debate. And, again as others have noted, he has always been at pains to defend himself against any accusations.

LMP is the Cobbler. I am now convinced of that.

Gurthang, like Nonnacedak, voted for Gil-Galad on Day 2. But he has been helpful in his contributions and posted at length in a seemingly genuine effort to catch both the Wolves and the Bear. I don't really find him suspicious at the moment.

That, of course, does not excuse anyone else. It remains quite possible that the Bear did vote for CaptainofDespair on Day 2. I just think it more likely that he did not. I agree with Boromir88 that both Meneltarmacil and SamwiseGamgee look suspicious, for their frequent but largely uninformative, posts. Menel more so. I think that Samwise has offered some solid ideas and opinions on occasion. Menel has been more talkative today, but only really to defend himself and accuse Boromir88, against whom I see very little evidence, of being the Bear.

So, my two current main Bear suspects are:

Meneltarmacil and Nonnacedak.

[Gurthang]

I too am uneasy about Nonnacedak. He did vote for a wolf everytime, but that does not make him un-Bearish. He really seems too worried about seeming innocent and has managed to fly relatively under the radar. I'm thinking about voting for him, but I still want to know what you all think, because, although I am suspicious of Non than others, I am not all that suspicious of anybody.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nonnacedak

They would be Durelin and LMP who already had a lot of suspicion on them.

Nah, it looks to me like the Bear voted for Laitaine yesterday. Durelin just doesn't seem the ursine type to me and I think that, given his absence from the proceedings to date, we can probably take it for granted that LMP's the Cobbler.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I'm thinking about voting for him, but I still want to know what you all think ...

I shall probably vote for either Nonnacedak or Meneltarmacil today but, as usual, I shall probably vote near the deadline in case there are any other developments in the meantime.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well for the first time in this village's short history it appears I'm having some pretty stiff suspicions aimed at me. Interesting. It is in the very nature of bearishness ( ) that I can no longer defend myself with regular votes for wolves. Indeed, it now appears that this is being used against me. Ho-hum. So, what defense do I have to offer, besides the fact that I'm not actually the bear? There's at least one of you who knows that, possibly two.

I guess I could call upon post #242 as a defense, where I floated the idea of lynching articstorm in an attempt to remove options from the wolves. Of course, if I were the bear I'd probably want to do that anyway, though- so who knows?

At the moment I'm most suspicious of Nonnacedak and dancing spawn. My suspicions of lmp have been somewhat subdued, mainly because I reckon that he was probably the cobbler on closer inspection of the thread.

So, there you have it: my defence. Not much, but the truth is that owing to the nature of the bear there is little I can say. I'm not the bear, guys. Please believe this. Oh, and boromir88, I am also not a girl!

[SamwiseGamgee]

Just realised I didn't realise why I was suspicious of who I said I was. So, an explanation:

Nonnacedak: Seems at pains to point out his own innocence, a point I first noticed in post #138. Since then (Day 2) I've been keeping a close eye on him, but I've never really suspected him enough to vote for him...until now. No, I'm not going to vote now. However, I may well vote for him when the time comes.

Furthermore, Non, you've really not contributed enough. Now, I know people are levelling the same claim at me, and I know how I feel about the accusation and hence the reason I'm going to let you answer it. So, Non, impress me.

dancing spawn: Something just doesn't seem right, and seeing as I'm really leaning pretty hard towards lmp being the cobbler, it leaves me wondering if she isn't in fact our bear. I'm not as convinced of her bearishness (again! ), so I'm going to go off and think long and hard.

We live in dark times, friends.

[Boromir88]

Samwise, well you make a good argument for yourself, and bring up things that I missed. (Sorry about the girl mix-up, same to you Nonnacedak). Now you know why I don't attempt to make guesses on the "How do you imagine other BDers?" thread.

I'm not too worried about Nonnacedak. Though he has defended himself quite a bit, I just don't see himself as the bear type. I have this uneasy feeling if we lynch him that he's not the one we're looking for. However, that's probably how I'll feel about everyone when voting.

I really can't tell anything at this moment, I tried to go back to look through the 4 people who were killed by the bear (Alcarillo, Encataire, Wilwarin, and Lalaith) but to no avail, as these fellow villagers didn't seem to talk too much, or point at many people. That's why I think the bear is relatively the queit type that's hoped to sort of blend in with the majority.

Originally posted bySp Dancing awn: I agree that the bear might have voted with the majority once, twice or even three times, but four?

That very well could be true. Not saying I was on to any leads when I made that post, it was just an idea that I sort of conjured up.