Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Mithalwen]

Cailin, thanks for the backhanded compliment I think... I am not acting less clever than I am... I am sorry my heart isn't in it as much as usual. I am so tired thanks to yet more upset preventing a decent nights sleep again that I feel that I am not functioning well - in the new mother or a junior doctor league. I still want to see it through but part of me would be relieved.

I am a baffled, tired and re ordo at the moment. I have posted openly my thoughts and opinions, possibly tactically stupid but at least I am out there. Why shouldn't I U-Turn? I never claimed ot be Mrs Thatcher. I don't know who is who, the wolves do, the gifteds may. I am neither. If someone seems to know something defineite why is it alarming to give them a chance? As I said it is a dangerous claim to make...

[Cailín]

All right, Mith.

Whom do you suspect now?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but if you're saying that when I die, a wolf will die, that's not the case. Whomever I choose to hunt will die, whether they are an innocent, a gifted, or a wolf.

Oh yeah. That's right. Well, in that case, we will probably lose you after this Night. A shame to lose our Hunter so quickly. Oh! There is this possibility, though, that a werewolf won't dare try to kill you on the off-chance that you pick one of them to hunt. So you may be around longer than one Night.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Also, if Elempi is a wolf, Mith is definitely not one. The other way around the same.

Why? This didn't quite follow from your reasoning, as far as I could tell; at least, not as a necessary, virtually mathematical correlation. Perhaps in terms of likelihoods, it's as possibly correct a conclusion as any. My problem with it is that I am inclined to trust Morm, and knowing my own innocence, I therefore tend to give Mith the benefit of the doubt; which makes what you say hard for me to accept.

Mith's two most recent posts are just too guileless for werewolvery. So it seems to me.

[Cailín]

Elempi, I am not saying that you could not both be innocents.

I'm thinking that, if you both are wolves, Mith would not have changed her vote so quickly.

I agree: Mith's latest posts have rather convinced me of her innocence (at least enough to give her the benefit of the doubt today). It does not automatically follow that you are a wolf though, and I never said that.

[Celuien]

Those last posts convince me as well. Removing Mith from my suspect list...

I have a lot of stuff to catch up on besides WW. So, bear with me a little longer today. I'm planning to take a closer look at TGWBS, who's been escaping my notice, and morm. Possibly one or two others as well.

[the guy who be short]

I'm here!

Two major things happened yesterday, and though people have touched on both, I'm surprised at how little has been said.

The first was Caran coming out of the closet concerning her Huntress tendencies. The second, in conjunction, was the rushed lynching of SpM.

Now then, it might just be me, but I think Cailin's and my actions yesterday would probably exonerate us. I was quite expecting Cailin to die tonight.

Why do our actions exonerate us? Because we saved the Hunter. Perhaps a wolf would do such a thing to gain trust - but it would be an incredibly stupid wolf, and here's why. Caran is somebody we can ALL trust now. Her opinions are definitely innocent. Anything anybody else says could be a wolf speaking, but not her. She gives villagers a safe base to rally around. Objectively speaking, it would be better if we all trusted her opinions instead of forming our own, but obviously people would resist this. Certainly her opinions should be considered more important than anybody else's. Sorry to pressure you, Caran, but you should get as much analysis as you can done today.

That said, Caran is definitely the Hunter.

Originally Posted by LMP

But there's a problem. Caran may be a werewolf claiming to be the Hunter. If she is not the real Hunter, the real Hunter has enough sense to stay under cover in order to be most useful, because, following this line of thinking, if Caran's not the Hunter, she's a shockingly bold werewolf, knowing that a wise hunter will stay undercover for a while, thus duping the lot of us to think she's innocent for a bunch of Days.

False. If she were not the Hunter, the real Hunter would come out. We would lynch one; if it were a wolf, good. If it were the Hunter, we would lynch the other the next day.

Oh yeah. That's right. Well, in that case, we will probably lose you after this Night. A shame to lose our Hunter so quickly. Oh! There is this possibility, though, that a werewolf won't dare try to kill you on the off-chance that you pick one of them to hunt. So you may be around longer than one Night.

Nope. The longer the wolves leave her alive, the more likely she'll take a wolf with her. They'll take her tonight unless our Ranger has been cunning.

More in an hourish. My next post should contain suspicion of morm and a vote of unconfident confidence in LMP.

[Lhunardawen]

Just got here. Got a bit lost on the way.

I did a bit of skimming, though, and I must say that I missed being suspected. So long as it doesn't get me wrongfully lynched, because I am as innocent as innocent goes.

Will be back after catching up completely, and with a quick vote.

[Thinlómien]

Well, I'm here.

Probably innocent
Nogrod
Celuien
Caranlondien - I believe her claim

Not very suspicious of
Cailín
Lhuna
Mith - her few latest posts are quite convincing
Fin
Tom
LMP - after rereading his posts I didn't find anything especially suspicious there

Totally unknown
Durelin
TGWBS
Fea
I can't interpret their behaviour.

Wary of
morm

Originally Posted by morm

She [Thinlómien] wanting to kill me because of my playing style and gives herself an out too. She says if she comes back she will look for some real suspects yet when she comes back I don't see her do that. She admits I'm not a real suspect but I appear to be an easy target so she goes for me. If I was lynched nobody would think it horribly suspicious to vote for me that early on. Voting somebody on 'playing style' in not very acceptable to me in that we all have our own and valid styles. If I am suspicious and you can find a reason, fine vote for me but not for this petty dribble.

So that's the problem with me? I found you a little suspicious plus I didn't like your playing style. As I didn't have any stronger suspicions, I voted you. I came back. I reread some things, but still saw you as the most suspicious person. Or did you miss this:

Originally Posted by me

I'm leaving now. My vote stays the same as I suspect morm as much as my other main suspect Cara, and I feel an innocent Cara would be more useful to the village than an innocent morm with his current behaviour.

? As to the playing style, I have nothing against your normal playing style, but I didn't like the way you played on Days 1 & 2.
I agree with you to some point that voting because of someone's playing style is rather stupid, but I also think that if there are many people one suspects as much, I think playing style can be taken into consideration, (which I did yesterday).

Originally Posted by LMP

Care to explain what you mean? This is awfully vague, which is in its turn rather suspicious, although, Lommy, I suppose you tend to be vague, so maybe this is just you theorizing out loud. Either way, I'd appreciate it if you would do me the courtesy of explaining what "nonsense" you're talking about? Thanks.

I only meant that according to my little experiences you are theorising and making cases much more, so the way you played stroke me as odd. If you want me to comment your posts post by post and explain what I think about each one, feel free to ask me. I won't, anyway, do that unless requested, since I think it's a little help and just floods the thread (okay, it wasn't me the floodposter who said that ) and takes my time.

Now I'm off to do a morm-analysis...

edit: xed with Celuien, TGWBS and Lhuna

[the guy who be short]

Just popping in. I was planning on doing a morm-analysis myself. If Lommy covers the points, fine; if she doesn't, I'll do it myself anyway.

I just have time to comment on LMP. LMP started the SpM bandwagon with what seemed like complete certainty. This makes me think he is innocent - he once aimed such a concerted attack on me. I have come to disregard much of what he says simply because he has a knack for accusing innocents and getting them lynched. So, while I maintain that he is innocent, I will be sure not to listen to him.

[Thinlómien]

Day 1
#12 - Says he's glad to see Kath dead and jokes about ww-meat.
#86 - Says he's in a hurry and he has a lot to catch up; votes TGWBS. Reason:

Man it feels good to have you back! You can be a Kath replacement .

Day 2
#133 - Suspects Cara (says she's nervous, reacts but not too strongly to accusations, tries to divert suspicion) and votes her.
#157 - Says he's catching up, confirms LMP's werewolf weariness comment. Says Thinlómien tries to grasp any straw that is moderately suspicious and claims she intentionally misunderstood SPM and twisted his words. Names Thinlómien, Cara and TGWBS as his top suspects, but gives no reasoning. Explains his absence.
#233 - Explains his RL hurries.
#239 - Quotes TGWBS:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Morm - Caran is the hunter. Change your vote to SpM to save her, unless you don't believe her.
Nogrod - You can't get morm now. You too should change your vote.

and says comments like that are the base of his suspicions of him.

Day 3
#261 - Is back, explains his ww weariness and his reasons to be in the game mainly being only that Kath is modding. Sums up general impressions. Suspects Cailín, TGWBS, Thinlómien and Durelin. Doesn't suspect Mith, Fea, Nogrod and Celuien.
#268 - Claims that if he was a wolf, no one would be suspecting him. Suspects Thinlómien and says she does a remarkable job at picking flavour of the day.
#275 - Analyses Thinlómien. Accuses her of twisting SPM's words, not understanding him, giving weak reasoning on Boromir-vote, voting morm because of playing style and "taking path of least resistance".

Conclusions up in a minute, and a few responses to him on passages I felt uneasy about...

[Celuien]

The Short One:

55: Apologies for late arrival. Lots of Pokemon talk. Thinks that day 1 is useless because innocents have nothing to work on. Will vote at random, says he will not retract his vote. Votes Cailin.
57: Says there’s an inconsistency in SPaM’s idea about the usefulness of day ones re finding clues in Kath’s narration.
61: Says the mod is impartial and there are no clues in the narration.
83: Doesn’t care about retractable votes, says he won’t use them because they shouldn’t be needed and he’s too lazy to make use of any advantage they may give. Says they make w
olf-spotting harder. Is apathetic about the Changling.
91: More Pokemon. Wants reasoning for Morm’s vote.
Here ends day one…
Day two…
116: Joke about Formy and shorts. Says he notices Durelin (Anti-retractable votes. Pro-random. Good.), Caranlondien (Easily swayed by others. Bad) and Findeasea (Good reasons against Boro. Post 108).
118: Thinks Formy was killed for giving no information so the village can confuse itself, or (less likely) to cast suspicion on Saucy, LMP or Cailin. Suspicious of Spawn and Cailin.
122: Thinks Formy was killed to prevent disruptions.
154: Thinks SpaM is making mistakes that mistakes don’t look good for him. Finds theories about Morm, LMP, Caran and Durelin intersesting, but will ignore it because he doesn’t know who to trust.
156: Summary of events leading to Boromir’s death.
165: Pokemon talk and thinks that SPaM is too tricksey for him to analyze effectively. Thinks Mormy is reluctant to voice worries that keep him on the suspect list.
169: La mort de Boromir, deuxième partie. Neutral towards Tom, but not sure what to think of him.
171: Doesn’t want to jump on minor details to make a case about wolvery because it leads to innocents dying. Defense of views on Caran, Cailin and Morm.
176: Doesn’t think Lommy is a wolf based on her attacks on Boro, suspects spawn a little.
197: Thinks morm is apathetic and unreasonable and that it would be good to kill him whether or not he’s a wolf. Votes for Mormegil.
221: Would be glad to kill SpM for being unfathomable. Not sure what to think of Caran, other than her being easily manipulated. Will consider switching to SpM.
228: Says Findeasea is pathetic for voting Mith (throwaway vote). Is inclined to switch to SpM, but doesn’t want to make a tie.
232: Switches vote to SpM to save Caran.
234: Tells Morm and Nogrod to change their votes to SpM to save Caran.
241: Rhetorical question about losing an innocent SpM versus the Hunter.
243: Would change back to Morm, but Caran would die if he did. Wants to know what Morm finds threatening about him.
249/250: More about voting for SpM/saving Caran.
Here ends day two…
Day three…
286: Thinks Cailin and he are exonerated by their efforts to save Caran.
289: Thinks LMP is innocent because of the certainty with which he started the SpM bandwagon, but will be careful not to listen to him due to LMP’s record of getting innocents lynched.

I find TGWBS rather unsuspicious. While I disagree with his claim that working to save Caran exonerates him - any intelligent wolf would have done the same thing to maintain cover and gain village trust - he says enough reasonable things and has overall behaved honestly enough (I think) that he doesn't really garner much suspicion from me.

Agree with the assessment of LMP. He doesn't strike me as a wolf. Same reasons as TGWBS. Agressively attacking innocent SPM was risky, and my opinion is that LMP would be better at staying undercover as a furry one than to try to get SPM lynched.

[Thinlómien]

The post #268 of mormegil's really worries me.

Originally Posted by mormegil

In her [Thinlómien's] vote for me it seemed mighty strange that in her previous post she implies that I'm innocent, next post which is really close to each other, changes her mind and votes for me with a back door ready for escape . . .

I didn't say you were innocent in my opinion. I said that ww-weariness might point to your ordoness.

Originally Posted by me

A good point I didn't think about. But according to my experiences, this weariness usually occurs only with ordos. So should we conclude morm's most probably innocent? Or could he bluff here? I'm waiting for an explanation, whatever the case is.

. . . and says that she's not sure if she'll be back and yet she's able to post 4 more times.

Excuse me, but what's suspicious in saying that "I'm not sure if I can be back" and coming back? I'm totally missing the point here.

Boro, SpM and Spawn voiced high suspicion of her and are all dead either by lynching or wolf death.

I totally missed spawn voicing high suspicion of me. A quote, please. As to SpM, I never contributed to his death. I find this reasoning quite hollow.

[Lhunardawen]

Right. Now. Caran's the Hunter; believe her. The real Hunter would have come out if she wasn't. There have been quite a few scenarios similar to this in the past.

There are a lot of ways to use this info, I just realized. If I'm not mistaken, she can only bring someone with her to the grave if she is killed by the wolves, and not if she is lynched. And it's not as if we'll lynch her, anyway. So, how will the wolves use this? They have to be careful in killing her, even if she's already a revealed gifted and they're probably itching right now to get rid of her.

If Caran outrightly suspects a wolf, she would definitely not be killed that Night, unless the wolves are stupid enough to risk killing one of their own. If she suspects an innocent that Day, she is more likely to be killed the next Night since she will potentially be bringing an innocent down with her.

That's as far as I can go, and I wouldn't even try to counsel Caran about what her actions should be with this in mind. I'm sure any counsel from me will be directionless.

Next up, SpM's death. That last-minute change-of-vote chaos last Night was the perfect spot for waiting wolves to hide in; they can easily pass off their votes for SpM as an attempt to save Caran. And they will be glad to do it, since, duh, they will be getting rid of SpM.

So who voted for SpM?

Elempi - the reason for his change of mind from dancing spawn (also an innocent) was interesting:

Originally Posted by Elempi

This is precisely the kind of bold in-your-face wolvish statement I've been waiting for from you, SPM. The lorebooks show that such a disregard for your fellow innocent villagers' state of mind was precisely the key that showed your ancestor's wolvishness. Nobody at that time saw it for what it was until too late. I am making sure nobody misses it this time. Thank you for slipping up in this fashion. I challenge you to vindicate yourself. But you are slippery, sir. Perhaps the only sufficient vindication may be your lynching or the seer declaring you innocent, since your very efforts to clear yourself will most likely be so full of loyerly misdirection and logic chopping that you persuade people against their better judgment that you are not the werewolf I strongly suspect you to be.

It sounds so genuine to me, it's actually scary. Like it's too forward or something. A very bold move indeed for a wolf, and I have to admit one a wolvish Elempi wouldn't risk. He now moves lower in my suspicious list.


Mith - a change from Caran influenced by Elempi's vote:

This strategy makes you so vulnerable if it backfires that I will chance trusting you

A fair point, but it seems to pin the blame on Elempi too much, almost as if she was washing off her hands any responsibility in case Elempi was wrong.


Durelin - seemed flipfloppy reasoning to me:

But he's a bit more aggressive than I've experienced him being...though subtlely. I may be waaaayyy off, but he is not sticking to his votes or his statements. This might be proof of his innocence, but it might not be. He doesn't even seem to be headed in a certain direction, as far as I can tell, and there is nothing wrong with that, except that it's Saucie. I feel compelled to 'wait and see,' and yet I must vote. I'd like to see if I get killed tonight...then I think everyone should keep a closer eye on Saucie, as I would be the second person he defended and then 'offed.' I do think he's a lote smarter than that, though. But I'm not sure if that necessarily has anything to do with it. A wolf victory can come in many forms.

But I understand the need to vote right away without having any clear suspicions. That doesn't mean I'm letting you off the hook, though.


Caran - to save herself, of course.


tgwbs - a change from a reasonable vote for morm, to save Caran. A fair change, I suppose, since he didn't have any solid opinions on SpM, anyway. He sounded genuinely concerned about Caran's safety. No longer so suspicious as he was yesterDay.


Cailín - also to save Caran, and a fair vote since she said she didn't want to vote for morm yet, who was the other possible lynchee.

*dramatically wipes forehead*

But what stands out to me from this flurry of votes are those who seem not to want to get involved in the lynching of two innocents, as we know them now. Actually, that should be singular: Fin's vote for Mith. And yes, admittedly tgwbs presented the idea of it being a throwaway vote right after she cast it, but I just want to bring it up to everyone lest he forgets, because it's really worth noting.


And another thing, morm, could you please explain this?

I noticed people wanted to know why I am suspicious of TGWBS...it's comments like these.

Yes, yes...tgwbs also said it last Night. Sheesh, I'm such a leech.


Speaking of morm...perhaps I need to defend myself a little. After my ancestress's suicide in a village of the not-so-distant past, I want to make up and be a lot more helpful (at least in my perspective) this time. I hope there's nothing wrong with that. And there's no reason for me to be Lhoony since it's not a Full Moon.


Oh geesh, look at the time! I'll be back for a vote in a short while.

[Thinlómien]

(= conclusions on morm)

His Day1, which I regarded as suspicious doesn't make mee feel suspicious of him anymore. He seems just like a normal villager in a hurry.

His Day2 is a bit more worriesome. He doesn't give any reasons to his suspicions. As said before, it might be an answer-provoking strategy, but I still don't like it. It'd be a perfect cover for a wolf. And, suspicion of all those persons he mentioned had been expressed before. So the answer-provoking was in vain. Furthermore, those people were generally suspected so he even didn't bring new cases out.

His Day3 is not much better. More about the post #268 above. I don't like his analysis of me either. What kind of accusation is:

gives a weak reason for voting for Boromir

Are there non-weak reasonings on Day1s?

Final conclusion: I continue to be wary of him. He's my top suspect.

An add: I have been careless:

Originally Posted by me, bolding not in the post

#275 - Analyses Thinlómien. Accuses her of twisting SPM's words, not understanding him, giving weak reasoning on Boromir-vote, voting morm because of playing style and "taking path of least resistance".

It should read "not wanting to understand him".

[Caranlondien]

Mith's defense has convinced me for toDay. Cailín I also feel a bit better about after hearing more from her. Am I wrong, or do we have yet to hear from Fea toDay?

I'll have to rework my suspicions list...

Not a Likely Werewolf:
Celuien
Nogrod
lmp

Need to be watched, but not quite on my suspect list:
Lhuna
TGWBS
Cailín
Mith
Fin

Suspicious:
Tom
Lommy
morm

Can't read them at all, and therefore suspicious of them:
Fea
Durelin

This was done rather quickly... I'll be back in an hour with more, I hope.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm sorry, this is all I have time for (for the rest of) toDay:

Innocent, duh
Caran

Seems innocent
Celuien
Nogrod

Somewhere in between
Elempi
Cailín
tgwbs
Mith

Plain confusing/I don't know
Fea
tom
Lommy

Uh-oh
morm
Fin
Durelin

Now...Fin has been making a lot of sense then suddenly made that vote yesterDay. morm is starting to be himself but still not quite. Both would be very helpful if innocent.

I'll have to stick to my previous vote:

++DURELIN

See you tomorrow (I hope), fellow villagers.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Cara, 07:27 AM my time

Need to be watched, but not on my suspect list toDay...yet
Lhuna
TGWBS
Durelin
Lommy
Tom

Originally Posted by Cara, 05:45 PM my time

Suspicious:
Tom
Lommy
morm

What did I do to deserve this?

[the guy who be short]

Many of the points I wanted to make about morm have already been made. However, one or two remain.

The first is his constant willingness to lynch me with no reasoning whatsoever. It could, admittedly, have been some sort of ploy, but after three days it's got tiresome. Cough up some reasons, monkey-man. Why do comments such as telling you to switch votes - which, incidentally, I only made once - cause you to suspect me? Where and when do spawn and SpM make cases against me?

TGWBS - I find highly suspicious and many good cases have been brought against him by SpM, Spawn, and others.

You're incoherent, and it's making me suspect you.

Also,

Mith - Innocent!!!! Trust me on this one.

Why should we trust you? It seems you're implying you're the Seer, which I find incredibly unlikely. Again, no reasoning. I don't like it.

Finally, why did you not try to save Caran yesterday? Nogrod had the excuse of mixing up his maths and thinking we could lynch you instead. You simply said I was making you suspicious and that was it.

++MORMEGIL

Because I suspect him, and repeated requests for logic have been systematically ignored. Maybe you'll respond now.

[the guy who be short]

Likely wolves:
Morm - reasoning above.
Fea - You may be busy, but input today was completely feeble. No reasoning whatsoever, just a vote for LMP.
Fin - That throwaway vote. Explain it.

Known innocent:
Caran

Likely innocent:
LMP
Cailin

Undecided:
Lhuna
Celuien
Lommy
Nogrod
Tom
Mith
Durelin

Now I'm off to look over what people have said about SpM's lynching.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I have come to disregard much of what he says simply because he has a knack for accusing innocents and getting them lynched. So, while I maintain that he is innocent, I will be sure not to listen to him.

Thanks for the words of confidence. Funny, your opinion of me is largely the same as mine of SPM. So, do you have a knack, Guy, for accusing wolves and getting them lynched? We shall see this game...

Just an observation: I'm seeing one of those typical skirmishes that we see between two players with markedly different styles: Morm & Lommy are really going after each other. What that usually means, based on my lorebooks, is that both are likely innocent and are strongly reacting to each other. Make of that what you will.

I'm willing to go with the general sense of the village, that Caran is the Hunter; as I said, I think it most likely.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

A very bold move indeed for a wolf, and I have to admit one a wolvish Elempi wouldn't risk.

Good to see you know me. But that doesn't mean I trust you ... yet. You sound innocent, and there are others who seem more wolvish this time....

Originally Posted by Lhuna

But what stands out to me from this flurry of votes are those who seem not to want to get involved in the lynching of two innocents, as we know them now. Actually, that should be singular: Fin's vote for Mith. And yes, admittedly tgwbs presented the idea of it being a throwaway vote right after she cast it, but I just want to bring it up to everyone lest he forgets, because it's really worth noting.

Very true. I've been watching this one and (s)he seems to have all those earmarks that I find most disturbing: playing both sides against the middle, switching or casting suspicious looking votes, such close and careful reasoning in a post that you wonder what is being hidden. And so on.

Lhuna, Morm explained his suspicion of Guy already.

Must run. I have a Festival to go to again, so I must cast my vote now.

++ Findëasëa

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Lommy

What did I do to deserve this?

Whoops, actually I didn't mean to put you under suspicious. I've moved Tom there based on a general feeling of suspiciousness, but now I'll go back and look over his posts more closely.

Not a Likely Werewolf:
Celuien
Nogrod
lmp

Need to be watched, but not quite on my suspect list:
Lhuna
TGWBS
Cailín
Mith
Fin
Lommy

Suspicious:
Tom
morm

Can't read them at all, and therefore suspicious of them:
Fea
Durelin

So right now I'm most suspicious of those last four.

[the guy who be short]

Lhuna, Morm explained his suspicion of Guy already.

I must have amnesia. Either that, or you and morm are both wolves, LMP.

I've done a bit more reading and have come to an unfavourable conclusion of durelin due to long-winded and semi-existant reasoning when voting for SpM, and a positive view of Lhuna for talking a lot of good sense.


IMPORTANT

As I have said before, Caran's proven innocence is of immense importance. We should have used it a lot more today. We must use Caran's decision in lieu of our own because we can all trust her objectivity.

Caran - why do you not trust Tom? I am ambivalent towards him and would welcome your analysis.

Also, whom do you suspect the most? You should take charge today because we probably only have you for a day. I'm happy to change my vote to Fea or durelin and probably will be to change it to Tom given a little reasoning.

[Findëasëa]

Fin - That throwaway vote. Explain it.

I did what I honestly thought was right. I was planning on voting for Mith, after working on analysis of her she seemed most suspicious. When I was able to get to the village, I saw that Caran had 5 votes and SPM had 4. I considered voting for SPM, because I was convinced of Caran’s innocence, and his blatant attack on her seemed out of place. I did not vote for him in the end because I was not convinced of his guilt on this alone. I did not feel comfortable voting for either one of these players. It would have been easy to echo the arguments of other players and place a vote for SPM, but instead I made an argument, which I still feel is a valid one, and voted for the person I found most suspicious. I do not think my vote was a throwaway, and I would make the same choice again.

[Caranlondien]

Tom
Day One
#43: Says no one looks very suspicious yet, casts vote for Boro because of overt emphasis on his innocence.

Day Two
#124: Thinks Form's death may indicate the wolves are comfortable with their position in the village hierarchy. Says Caran needs looking at but doubts the wolves would be so obvious as to kill someone who voted for one of them.

#146: Says he's being swayed by the village's suspicion of Caran. Also suspects morm.

#149: Analyzes SpM, makes some points against him but in the end decides he's probably innocent.

#151: Says looking over SpM's posts, it hit him how little morm has been talking. Theorizes about morm changing his style because of his recent wolvish ancestor's success. Wants to watch him.

#168: Says he has abandoned his big-players conspiracy, thinks SpM is innocent and hasn't had time to look at others. Has to leave soon and will probably be voting for Caran or Spawn.

#174: Votes morm.

My thoughts: His shift to morm does look a little odd after saying he'd probably be voting for Caran or Spawn. He seems to explain it by saying that he didn't know morm wouldn't be returning for the Day. That doesn't really make sense to me, as I didn't want to vote for morm that Day for exactly the same reason - he wouldn't be back to explain himself.

This is little to go on, but it makes me nervous.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Guy Who Would Be Short

The first is his constant willingness to lynch me with no reasoning whatsoever. It could, admittedly, have been some sort of ploy, but after three days it's got tiresome.

Care to explain my 'willingness' to lynch you for three days now? I've voted for you once and we are on our third day and on the second I mainly expressed my suspicion of Caran and voted accordingly.

As so many seem to not read what I write I will say it again, when I quoted you telling me that Caran was the hunter I didn't see it all I saw was your part about not being able to get Morm today. As I know I'm innocent, statements like that make me suspect you.

Oh by the way, you MUST be innocent for saving Caran yesterday and...oh wait it wasn't you but it was Cailin, who I feel is innocent after hearing from her today, but somehow you ride the coat tails of it and try and have us all convinced that you are innocent. I don't think an ordo or gifted would push forward their own innocence that much.

Celuien, thank you for the summary but you came to an incorrect conclusion about TGWBS. He hasn't posted much that overly reasonable. He's been fairly single minded in his attack of me and refuses to draw up detailed conclusions of others

171: Doesn’t want to jump on minor details to make a case about wolvery because it leads to innocents dying.

This is one example but in reading the entire thread I get the impression that he's all of bunch of pokecrap mingled with a reluctance to stick out his neck on all but the easy target.

Edit: I wasn't finished and somehow this posted so I will double post.

[Celuien]

I'll await the rest of the post. Honestly, I'm wavering between voting for you on the basis of what's been posted or Durelin for her defensiveness and the other aspects of my earlier analysis, but I'd be interested in what you have to say about Guy.

[Findëasëa]

Caran, I have to say that I do not share your suspicions of Tom. I think you may have misread the post in which he explains his vote for Morm. It seems to me that his justification for voting was that he thought that the ‘weariness argument’ was a way for him to get away with being a quiet wolf.

Tom- I am still suspicious that this 'weariness' is an excuse for being a quiet wolf, and I will be voting appropriately.

edit- fixed a typo

[mormegil]

In post 302 he wants to give control to Caran which has me extremely worried; not because I don't trust Caran but rather I don't trust TGWBS. He is riding on the coat tails again here and I agree that Caran's insights can be viewed as genuine but can we view them as accurate? Certainly not. She knows no more than any other innocent, save the seer and is bound to the same mistakes that we all make as innocents. She's a good source of trust but she's by no means infallible.

Originally Posted by LMP

Just an observation: I'm seeing one of those typical skirmishes that we see between two players with markedly different styles: Morm & Lommy are really going after each other. What that usually means, based on my lorebooks, is that both are likely innocent and are strongly reacting to each other.

Sadly you may be correct and while I still remain leary of her I'm backing off a bit currently.

Another thing that I find odd is that so many of us are putting are suspects in little subcategories and only giving reasons on one or two yet TGWBS harps on me because he didn't like the day 1 reasoning I gave him. It's frustrating because the day ends at 4 PM my time and I'm at work until at least 4:30 but usually later. It's difficult because most of the goings on happen while I'm at work so it's tough to maintain employment and read for hours a day at work. I know that you students think your life is so busy but just wait. And those of you under 18, TGWBS, just wait a couple years and maybe then you'll have some sympathy for adults.

[Caranlondien]

morm, I completely agree with you. I was just about to post that I don't want to "take charge" because it'll give the wolves an easy hiding place (e.g., "But Caran told me to vote for <insert name of an innocent here>). TGWBS has struck me as trying to ingratiate himself with me (though if you've honestly got that much faith in my wolf-spotting abilities, I'm flattered, but disagree) So TGWBS is on my suspicions list now. The only thing that makes me hesitate is that he actually argued that he and Cailin were exonerated by their saving me yesterDay. Would a wolf be so obvious?

Fin, I see what you mean about Tom. I guess I did misread there...

[mormegil]

Fin - That throwaway vote. Explain it.

You're incoherent

Cough up some reasons, monkey-man.

Does you petulance have no bounds cartoon boy?

[mormegil]

Regarding Mith, I feel I know her very well and can read her and know how she would react as a wolf. She is not. Sadly I am not the seer but the wolves can kill me to find out.

[the guy who be short]

All quotes from morm unless states otherwise.

Care to explain my 'willingness' to lynch you for three days now? I've voted for you once and we are on our third day and on the second I mainly expressed my suspicion of Caran and voted accordingly.

On days two and three you have kept me in your "very suspicious" category with no reasoning whatsoever.

when I quoted you telling me that Caran was the hunter I didn't see it all I saw was your part about not being able to get Morm today. As I know I'm innocent, statements like that make me suspect you.

And... can you point to any other statements like that? Or do my comments all have to be misinterpreted and misread before they can cast suspicion on me?

Oh by the way, you MUST be innocent for saving Caran yesterday and...oh wait it wasn't you but it was Cailin, who I feel is innocent after hearing from her today, but somehow you ride the coat tails of it and try and have us all convinced that you are innocent. I don't think an ordo or gifted would push forward their own innocence that much.

I made one post on my own innocence. I think it's rather logical if you think it out.

TGWBS. He hasn't posted much that overly reasonable. He's been fairly single minded in his attack of me and refuses to draw up detailed conclusions of others

This from the man who refused to give any reasoning until his existence came under threat today... I'll leave others to judge my input.

In post 302 he wants to give control to Caran which has me extremely worried; not because I don't trust Caran but rather I don't trust TGWBS. He is riding on the coat tails again here and I agree that Caran's insights can be viewed as genuine but can we view them as accurate? Certainly not.

Originally Posted by Caran

I was just about to post that I don't want to "take charge" because it'll give the wolves an easy hiding place (e.g., "But Caran told me to vote for <insert name of an innocent here>). TGWBS has struck me as trying to ingratiate himself with me (though if you've honestly got that much faith in my wolf-spotting abilities, I'm flattered, but disagree) So TGWBS is on my suspicions list now.

I'm happy to trust Caran because 3/4 of her suspects seem suspicious to me. That seems accurate enough for me. Her objective outlook should be one we all take complete advantage of while she's here. Even if it did serve as a hiding place for wolves, it would only be for the one day she's here.

So yes, I have faith in your wolfspotting abilities. I think the best course of action is for Caran to make a shortlist of three or four people and everybody to vote for one of them. This preserves some autonomy whilst narrowing the autonomy of the wolves.

[Caranlondien]

morm is beginning to feel rather more innocent to me. Of course if TGWBS is a wolf, this could be a clever sacrifice that morm can ride 'til the end. But for now, I'm starting to feel more inclined to trust him.

[Caranlondien]

And now I feel more inclined to trust TGWBS...

See, this is why you shouldn't put all your faith in me

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by TGWBS

So yes, I have faith in your wolfspotting abilities. I think the best course of action is for Caran to make a shortlist of three or four people and everybody to vote for one of them. This preserves some autonomy whilst narrowing the autonomy of the wolves.

Hmm... well when a certain wizard did that in another village, it was because he actually had some knowledge of other innocents, and wanted to keep the village from lynching them. I know nothing. I shan't make a shortlist that everybody must vote from.

What I will do is provide you with a list of suspects from an objective opinion. Vote as you wish, ignoring my list if you so choose. I don't think that merely voting for someone not on my list should be taken as a wolvish-act; rather, I think that, as usual, reasoning and previous suspicions should be taken into account. Take this as objective advice, not as a List of Doom (I believe Gurthang has a copyright on that term )

morm
TGWBS
Feanor
Durelin

[Findëasëa]

I'm happy to trust Caran because 3/4 of her suspects seem suspicious to me. That seems accurate enough for me. Her objective outlook should be one we all take complete advantage of while she's here. Even if it did serve as a hiding place for wolves, it would only be for the one day she's here.

So yes, I have faith in your wolfspotting abilities. I think the best course of action is for Caran to make a shortlist of three or four people and everybody to vote for one of them. This preserves some autonomy whilst narrowing the autonomy of the wolves.

I think this is a bad idea. Caran has already posted lists of who she finds suspicious and why. How are we to be assured that this is not a ploy from the wolves to keep themselves out of trouble for another day? I do feel that Caran is intelligent, but I am looking for completely different qualities in people than she is. I have voiced my belief of the moderate wolf being a likely one. Two of the people in her bottom four are there because Caran finds then ‘unreadable.’ I think that the line between personality and the actions of a bold wolf is not well defined here. The actions they have been called suspicious for so far seem to be mostly related to their personalities and posting styles. I want to wait for a stronger justification than the fact that their personalities may hide a bold wolf. Her arguments against Tom were flawed, and I find him likely innocent. As far as Morm goes, I am a bit suspicious, but not enough at this point to warrant a vote.

We should listen to Caran, but I don't think that blind following is wise.

X- posted with Caran, her suggestion idea seems much more reasonable than TGWBS's plan

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Fin

I have voiced my belief of the moderate wolf being a likely one.

Isn't that more of a personality-based criterion than my "unreadable"-based suspicions? I think that a wolf want to be unreadable. That's why I find unreadable people suspicious. I've never played with Durelin before, so I don't know if this is her typical behavior. Feanor I know looks suspicious even when she isn't guilty, but I think in this game particularly, her behavior has been cryptic at best. As for Tom, I agreed with your point and removed him from my suspicion list for now.

[Caranlondien]

Fea => lmp (lmp 1)
Lhuna => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 1)
tgwbs => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1)
lmp => Fin (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1)

Left to vote: Cailín, Celuien, Lommy, Nogrod, Tom, Caran, Fin, Mith, morm, Durelin

[Findëasëa]

Isn't that more of a personality-based criterion than my "unreadable"-based suspicions? I think that a wolf want to be unreadable. That's why I find unreadable people suspicious. I've never played with Durelin before, so I don't know if this is her typical behavior. Feanor I know looks suspicious even when she isn't guilty, but I think in this game particularly, her behavior has been cryptic at best.

I mean moderate in action, not personality. Moderate action would varies based on personality (i.e. a moderate action for Durelin might be very different then a moderate action for you). I agree that their actions appear cryptic, I just think that what I see as strangeness regarding their actions may just be a personality quirk. As you said, Fea looks suspicious even when she is not guilty, I do not want to make the mistake of helping get her lynched if I have no further justification then that she seems cryptic.

[mormegil]

++TGWBS

He seems the most suspicious to me. I may have been a bit hard earlier on but he and I have a history of respectful disagreement occasionally laced with petty insults .

Another reason to vote for him in a past instance with him when I was the cobbler and he was wolf he was doing well but continued one day to long in his single minded attack on me which ended up getting him lynched. This is reminscent of this.