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10-24-2005, 06:01 AM | #281 | |
Princess of Skwerlz
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I still have to go through Firefoot's posts and find out what clues there are to her being a Seer. How could the wolf recognize her?
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'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' |
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10-24-2005, 06:34 AM | #282 |
Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
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I too will be going through her posts. However, I find it likely that the wolf had no idea she was the Seer - Firefoot, morm and LMP were the Three Angels, so to speak, whom nobody suspected. With LMP gone, either Firefoot or morm was going to die last night. The Wolf just got lucky.
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10-24-2005, 06:41 AM | #283 |
Princess of Skwerlz
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles)
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I think it very likely that the wolf was after the seer - I would be, if I were a wolf! After all, the other gifted villagers were taken care of, and if the seer had come out with information, she would have been dangerous. This makes me wonder all the more whether Boromir was trying to play with our minds by posing as the seer, either to draw out the real one or to get the rest of us to gang up on an innocent villager.
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'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' |
10-24-2005, 06:56 AM | #284 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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Okay I'm back and though I was in bed I slept very little I spent some time thinking and I have a strategy that I want to present. I will explain it later but whatever you do don't vote yet!
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
10-24-2005, 07:22 AM | #285 |
Laconic Loreman
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On how I knew Formendacil was a wolf...
Well, I didn't really "know" per se, but I had a strong feeling. My Day 1 vote was more or less just random. Day 2, I didn't think Shelob was guilty and no one really changed my mind as to who a wolf was, so I stuck with Formendacil. Day 3, I believed (and I hope he doesn't mind) mormegil was the Seer. One because he did catch onto Cailin, and two he came strong after Formendacil. So I believed he was the Seer and dreamed of Formendacil which kept me to stick with Formendacil. As I said before, go ahead and lynch me Estelyn, it'll just be a wasted day and I can't believe this village is so stupid to still consider me a wolf. As of right now I stand by that Enca is the last wolf, who tried to turn voting against me yesterday. Honestly, you have to ask yourself would a wolf vote for another wolf 3 straight days and be so vital in a fellow wolf downfall? Especially early in the game when Formendacil was not attracting much suspicion at all, just from me? If you think so, then you people are just crazy. Estelyn is now popping into my head as another wolf. Who I think is trying to conjure up a theory to get me hanged, because I was so crucial in another wolf's demise perhaps? I'll have you know that I haven't been wrong yet, only on the fact that I believed mormegil was the Seer, and not Firefoot. Which might seem incriminating to some extent, but if you want to get rid of someone who is a good judge on who's innocent and who's not, then it's your own loss.
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10-24-2005, 07:28 AM | #286 | ||||||
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Here's Firefoot's say on the matter: she didn't dream of Encai. "I haven't seen anything to strongly suggest her guilt" which means she hadn't dreamt yet and "I'd like to have a close look at her tomorrow" which I take to mean she planned on it. Quote:
EDIT: cross-post with Boromir. Quote:
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peace
Last edited by Feanor of the Peredhil; 10-24-2005 at 07:32 AM. |
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10-24-2005, 07:39 AM | #287 | |
Princess of Skwerlz
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles)
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In the meantime, I'd like to present my percentage list of the remaining players: 100% innocent - me (The only one of whom I absolutely know) 90% innocent - Underhillo (reasons given above) 80% innocent - tgwbs (for seemingly good reasoning so far) 80% innocent - mormegil (also for seemingly good reasoning so far) 50% innocent/guilty - Fea (just because she's too confusing to get a grasp on) very suspicious - Encaitare (for the reasons I gave yesterDay) highly suspicious - Boromir88 (for the reasons given toDay) more to come...
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'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' |
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10-24-2005, 07:40 AM | #288 |
Laconic Loreman
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Ok some further thoughts...
I think it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of me. She never jumped onto the growing suspicion of me, just said I was playing stupidly and not focusing on the task. Also, I was under much suspicion under Day 1, it would be logical to assume that either Day 2, or 3 she dreamed of me. Sorry for the let down in everyone thinking I was the Seer. If it makes any sense I was trying to disguise myself as the Seer, to sort of shield the real Seer (who I thought was definitely mormegil and I can see that was wrong). I had put my life on the line thinking that mormegil was the Seer and that he dreamed of Formendacil. Basically thinking if Form's a wolf, I'm innocent, if not I'm a dead man. But no matter what I do it just seems like no one takes my innocence.
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10-24-2005, 07:44 AM | #289 |
Laconic Loreman
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Hmm, I seem to be cross-posting with Estelyn who thinks I'm guilty for some reason?
Need I say I brought down a wolf, while you were crucial in Shelob's lynching. Actually, I'm almost about to say just lynch me, so I'll be out of your hair if no one takes my innocence. I'm growing more and more suspicious of Estelyn, who sees that I'm a threat to wolves and wants to get rid of me. So, hey lynch me, but who here has been the best judge on who's innocent and who's a wolf? But, lynch me, if that's what you guys want, I can think of no other way to get through to you people that I'm gosh darn innocent here.
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10-24-2005, 07:51 AM | #290 |
Princess of Skwerlz
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles)
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Boromir, as far as I know, you are an experienced Werewolf player. I do not know your past record, i.e. which roles you have played, but I credit you with the intelligence and chutzpah to dupe us all. I would be a poor player (and I hope that despite being a first time gamer here, I'm not stupid) if I took your words at face value. You're right, you can't trust me either, but please don't expect me to believe you without some reason!
Yes, I was involved in Shelob's lynching, but at that time (second day, with little evidence to go on) I thought I had reason to suspect her. The only way to avoid innocent victims is by knowing who is or is not a werewolf - and only werewolves have that information! (And the seer, but only for those few nights...) You have a right to be defensive, but it can make you look like you have a reason.
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'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' |
10-24-2005, 08:08 AM | #291 | |||
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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My plan will be rolled out shortly and I believe, if implemented, will be a great value to the village.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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10-24-2005, 08:09 AM | #292 | |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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Though you guys are being tight-lipped about your plan, here's mine: double-lynch Boromir and Encai. The two top suspects, from what I see. If if we're wrong on both, there will be enough villagers left to still have survival chances. Mind you, I think one of the two is a wolf... but I could always be wrong. I keep doing that these days. Off to the Psychology of Wenching. Ta ta.
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10-24-2005, 08:16 AM | #293 | ||||
Laconic Loreman
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Enough with these crazy and ludicrous theories about wolves backstabbing eachother. Sometimes the facts are right in front of your face and you're too busy concentrating on wild and whacky theories to see who the real villains are. Quote:
I didn't think Anguirel and Eomer were wolves even when voting for me, because wolves don't typically vote early and Anguirel just picked a random person who happened to be me and on Day 1, that's really all you can do. I didn't think Shelob or Lhuna were wolves because they were quiet, and wolves aren't usually quiet. I've learned not to vote for quiet people. You got to watch out for the ones that don't say a lot, but say a good amount and try to mold opinion or bandwagon. And often flip-flop to adjust to the public opinion. I think Fea is being set up. While it's possible that she may be a wolf doing a bold bluff wolves love to set people up. As they tried to do on Day 1 to me. (by killing Eomer). I think Fea is being set up because coming into the closing of the day her name was being thrown in there with Encai's and she'd be an easy target to go after the next day. Luckily needless to say, I stepped up and said she was being set up. (Though again she still may be a wolf). Quote:
Having said all this, I'm now cooled in my suspicion of Estelyn. Her concerns seem geniune to me. I will give you this, crazy theories are fun to think of, and trying to catch a bluff, but going with your gut feeling and the obvious "wolf" traits is what gets the villagers to victory.
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10-24-2005, 08:26 AM | #294 | ||||
Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
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All that Formendacil said...
In his first few posts Formy argues against morm and his strategies. I count this as further proof of morm's innocence.
He then goes on to say he has no reason to suspect anybody, but for lack of any evidence, will suspect Ang, LMP and morm. Again, morm is lumped with two innocents. On the first Day he votes for Mr U. I'm willing to interpret this as meaning Mr U isn't a wolf. It is difficult to analyse Formen's first long post. It more or less says "I think everybody is innocent." Quote:
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The really difficult thing about analysing anything Form says is his ambiguity. He claims somebody looks suspicious for one reason, but then innocent for another. Quote:
He votes for Fea, making her seem innocent again. That was incredibly ambiguous. Now, as I see it, either Fea is a cunning wolf, Boro is a cunning wolf, or Enca is a wolf. Mr U I doubt. |
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10-24-2005, 08:30 AM | #295 | |
Laconic Loreman
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Fea, I disagree with the double-lynching. One because, I'm not a wolf. Two, Encai who I think is the most wolfish one may not be. We have a strong advantage 6-1, if we do a double lynching of myself and Encai by the next day the villagers will be up 3-1. Still an advantage but if you don't catch that last wolf, it's over, villagers lose. No, a double-lynching is something I think a wolf would want in this situation. Hey, everyone thinks I'm a wolf. It's funny how morm, firefoot, lmp find a wolf and they're praised as saviours. I catch a wolf and it would make me a backstabber to Formendacil, if I was a wolf. I'm going to say...LYNCH ME, so I'm out of everyone's problems, and you can get to see who the real wolves are. I do say I strongly disagree with Fea's plan of a double-lynching.
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10-24-2005, 08:31 AM | #296 |
Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
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I agree with Feanor's plan.
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10-24-2005, 08:33 AM | #297 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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Boromir I hope I can believe you that you were trying to pretend to be the seer, I for one bought into it. I think the reason I bought into it though was because I believed Encai to be guilty, seemingly the wolf did not which, if you are innocent, would have a clearing effect upon Encai if you follow me.
My plan is simple and it follows along with what Fea said, I think we should do a double lynching today orchestrated by Mister Underhill and me. I use us for two reasons we are innocent and live in areas that allow us to vote the last minute. I would recommend that we choose two people and get them lynched together. I use this strategy because now that there aren't any gifteds left it's most likely that known innocents will die next that is Mister Underhill and me. So we need to capitalize on these two nights where we will have innocents with us. We are currently 7 villagers 2 known innocents so 5 total if we kill two that happen to not be a wolf we will be down to 4 and can do a possible double lynching the next day. We may actually be able to spot the wolf trying to influence the vote or abstain. This is our best shot. Now it is important that we pick correctly today so as to avoid a difficult situation tomorrow. As for myself I am convinced of Underhill's innocence and it will be difficult to convince me otherwise.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
10-24-2005, 08:35 AM | #298 |
Laconic Loreman
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No no no, Fea's plan can be a total disaster. I'm certainly not a wolf. Encai may be but she may not be. If she isn't entering tomorrow you're up 3-1, don't catch a wolf then it's over. We have to realize if neither of us our wolves you have one more day to find who the wolf is. If you don't do it YOU LOSE! Lynch me today and you get an extra day to see who the lone wolf is.
If you lynch me today, tomorrow you'll be up 4-1 and have another day to find who the wolves are. So again, I sacrifice myself, because no one seems to think I'm innocent and the only way to get through you knuckle-heads will be my death. So lynch me, and you have an extra day to find out who the real wolf is.
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10-24-2005, 08:37 AM | #299 |
Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
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I'm willing to go with that. I also support Fea's two suspects, namely, Boromir and Encai.
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10-24-2005, 08:45 AM | #300 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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Well let it be said though that while we want to catch the wolf in this double lynching attempt at least one innocent will die. This means that any true innocent should be willing to give his/her life for the good of the village. I'm not sure I agree with those two in conjunction. I see it as if Encai is innocent Boro could be a wolf and therefore lynched the next day and vice versa too. Now I would like to see Fea or TGWBS on the list too or possibly Esty.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
10-24-2005, 08:52 AM | #301 |
Laconic Loreman
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I'm going to come flat out I will do whatever it takes to stop a double-lynching, unless someone here can convince me otherwise.
Ok, so let's say Encai's a wolf, and we do the double lynching we win! Yay! But let's take the consequences and think if she isn't. Ok, so right now it's me and Encai. If Encai's not a wolf you will be down, 3-1, getting one more day to catch a wolf. Which may seem easy to go after, but it could be more difficult then you think. Who would be the last wolf if Encai doesnt' turn out to be. Fea, the one who proposed the double-lynching? Morm or tgwbs who jumped onto the idea? See what I'm saying. There's disaster just simply waiting if there's a double-lynching. We have a strong advantage in numbers, let's keep it that way. I will sacrifice myself, if so desired, so you guys can finally see that I'm innocent, and all of you are fooled by your crazy theories of my williness.
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10-24-2005, 09:15 AM | #302 |
Dread Horseman
Join Date: Sep 2000
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Day One
1. Anguirel - B88 2. Esty - Shelob (innocent) 3. tgwbs - Shelob (innocent) 4. (W) Cailin - Eomer (Hunter) 5. Eomer - B88 6. B88 - Form (W) 7. (W) Form - Mr. U 8. Shelob - Anguirel (innocent) 9. mormegil - Cailin (W) 10. Firefoot - Cailin (W) 11. lmp - Cailin (W) 12. Enca - Anguirel (innocent) 13. Mr. U - Anguirel (innocent) 14. Fea - B88 15. Lhuna - Anguirel (innocent) Day Two 1. Lhuna - Mr. U 2. Shelob - Lhuna (innocent) 3. tgwbs - Shelob (innocent) 4. B88 - Form (W) 5. Esty - Shelob (innocent) 6. Fea - lmp (Ranger) 7. morm - Fea 8. (W) Form - Mr. U 9. Firefoot - Shelob (innocent) 10. Mr. U - Fea 11. lmp - Fea 12. Enca - Shelob (innocent) Day Three 1. tgwbs - Lhuna (innocent) 2. B88 - Form (W) 3. (W) Form - Fea 4. Enca - B88 5. Firefoot - Form (W) 6. Esty - Enca 7. Fea - Mr. U 8. Mr. U - Form (W) 9. morm - Enca Here's the voting order and known roles where appropriate. It goes without saying that I know I'm innocent here, but I've only listed roles that are undisputably known by the death of the villager. Formendacil, a known wolf, voted for me twice and only backed off when it seemed some momentum was building against me. The way I read this is that he helped lead the building of suspicion of me over the first two days, then didn't want to be linked to lynching an innocent if I went down on the third day. Is his vote for Fea significant? People were backing off of Fea all around, so this was a pretty safe vote. He could have cast it towards a fellow wolf to provide cover for them both. Or alternatively, it might have been a safe vote for an innocent who has been dogged by suspicion. Fea, as ever, is shrouded in controversy and confusion. I'll get back to her presently. tgwbs has had the misfortune of having voted for a known innocent three days running. That should bring him up on anyone's radar. Offsetting this is his habit of voting early. Hard to say what's up here. It's decent strategy for a wolf to vote early to avoid being involved in controversial voting decisions. Not sure what to make of this, but I haven't been looking too closely at tg and now I'm thinking that I should. Even if he's innocent, he's been consistently wrong, which means we ought to consider clearing his top suspect, Boromir. Esty's had a shaky time of it, too, but overall I haven't seen much to suspect in her. I have to reciprocate her comments on me -- I have a feeling she'd be more involved if she were a wolf. She's been off most people's radar for most of the game, which makes me a little uneasy, but I've seen in her posts echoes of my own confusion as a n00b villager, so she remains low on my list. morm: Pretty sure he's innocent. Like Boromir, I had him pegged on Day Two as the Seer. ...which leads me to buy into Boromir's story. If he was posing as the Seer to screen morm, it worked; by the end of Day Three, I had changed my mind and thought he was the Seer. Could this all be a bluff? Maybe. But for now his story rings true to me. Fea's back at the top of my watch-list again. I backed off of her early on Day Three in part because I thought morm was the Seer, and he had backed off of her (#211). She's the only villager who has voted for a gifted (that we know of), and her other votes have been relatively safe bandwagon votes. Also notably cast an important vote on Day One and has seemingly been laying low voting-wise since then. She's accusing me still when the evidence is finally starting to vindicate me. She's also reaching hard to convince us that Firefoot dreamed of her, when Firefoot's comments hardly seem conclusive: Post #252 -- Of a list of three, including Fea, who had received votes: 'I could (at least theoretically) see myself voting for any of those three (or others) at this point.' See also post #256, especially a mention of Fea in her Lhuna comments: 'I know [Lhuna] lives in a different time zone, and I might feel a little bad in voting for her, but she makes me nervous too - not in a Fea-nervous way, but in an "I'm slipping under the radar now" nervous way.' On their own, both comments are pretty innocuous, but why would she cast even offhand suspicion on someone she knew to be innocent? Fea, you may be innocent, but my read on Firefoot's comments is that she did not dream of you. Enca is also still a top suspect. She has voted for two known innocents and the one villager who pegged a wolf on all three of his votes. Cast the controversial vote on Day One that has made her a suspect ever since. Right now, Fea and Enca top my watch-list. I'd like to get a closer look at tgwbs. **Not quite an edit, but while I've been composing this, the posts have been flying. Boromir has a point about the double-lynching, but on the other hand, if we kill an innocent we narrow down the chances of the wolf getting the cursed villager tonight. Would we know if the cursed villager had already been lynched, or can we assume he or she is still among us? Maybe a more experienced villager can help me out here. My top suspects remain Enca and Fea. Boromir is a maybe, but right now, as I said above, his story rings true. I'd need more convincing to go for him and leave one of the other two alive if we want to try to orchestrate the double-L -- which I'm also not completely convinced is the best plan. |
10-24-2005, 09:29 AM | #303 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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No we don't know if the cursed villager has been lynched yet. The only way we know the cursed villager has been killed is if the wolves kill him.
If I were to pick who to double lynch I would definately choose Fea and then either Encai or TGWBS.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
10-24-2005, 10:04 AM | #304 | |||||||
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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PS: this post, though unexpected, comes from my teacher cancelling one of my classes. It gave me a random hour that I'm not at all opposed to.
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peace
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10-24-2005, 10:14 AM | #305 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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Yes Fea but still something isn't sitting right and you're our resident enigma and finding out for sure would clear up some air.
Edit: I might add Fea that sometimes going with the crowd is helpful when the plan is good.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
10-24-2005, 10:20 AM | #306 |
Princess of Skwerlz
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles)
Posts: 7,500
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OK, since the double lynching idea has been outed now, let me say that I was thinking the same thing. I have two top suspects, Boro and Enca. One of them is innocent for sure, yes, but the advantage of a double lynching is that we have a double chance of getting the wolf before s/he can get the cursed villager (if still around - uncertain factor). There are seven of us, so we shall have to get at least two votes for both of them, in which case the other three villagers should vote singly for someone else, or if we can get six to vote on two, we'd have three votes each. Should someone come in at the very end to break the tie, s/he would be very suspicious, no? Oh, and even if we have three people with two votes each, the first and last of them would be lynched...
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'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' |
10-24-2005, 10:31 AM | #307 |
Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,648
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I've got a good idea that could be worth trying. With this list of remaining villagers (copied from Phantom's list)
mormegil the guy who be short Encaitare Boromir88 Feanor of the Peredhil Estelyn Telcontar Mister Underhill We should each do an individual analysis of the person below you. That would mean that I do one for TGWBS and he does Encai and so on until Mister Underhill does one for me. Since we only have one wolf there is no chance of a wolf analyzing the other wolf. This would spread out the work so nobody is doing too much. With our analysis be sure to include Firefoot's ideas. Is everybody for it?
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
10-24-2005, 10:39 AM | #308 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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I'm for it, though our Seer also analyzed and came up clear for Esty. Would you like me still to analyze her? I'll do it, but it won't be until later, as I have to leave now.
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peace
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10-24-2005, 10:39 AM | #309 | ||||
Laconic Loreman
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I'd like to point out tgwbs defended Formendacil and questioned mormegil hard as to why he was so suspicious of Formendacil. And Formendacil slightly defended tgwbs. Here's a few posts I find rather disturbing from tgwbs.
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10-24-2005, 10:41 AM | #310 |
Princess of Skwerlz
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles)
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Sounds like a good idea, morm - we have enough work cut out for us already! I'll go back and analyze Underhill's posts bit by bit, though I have already stated my conviction that he is very likely innocent.
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'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' |
10-24-2005, 10:41 AM | #311 |
Laconic Loreman
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morm, I can go through and "analyze" fea. For an overview, I stick by Fea as being set up. Well looking through posts of Formendacil and tgwbs, Formendacil labeled Fea as a wolf. I think this speaks to the fact that the wolves were trying to set her up and get her lynched.
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10-24-2005, 10:49 AM | #312 | ||
Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
Posts: 2,343
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I completely understand the suspicion against me. However, just because I've been consistently wrong, doesn't mean I'll stay that way. Now here's the deal. I'm willing to be double lynched, but toDay is our last Day with mormian input. After that, there are no known innocents. So, I'm willing to be lynched, on these conditions: Esty and mormegil are recognised as innocents. Encaitare is lynched with me. If Enca is not a wolf, Fea and Boro are lynched next Day, with Esty as the final voter, if she can manage this. Mr U or Esty - if you're wolves, I hate you. :P |
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10-24-2005, 10:53 AM | #313 |
Princess of Skwerlz
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles)
Posts: 7,500
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You won't have to hate me, tgwbs. Since the voting is so very crucial toDay, I will be sleeping early and getting up early to vote late. I announce this now so that all are aware of it - this is not a spontaneous decision. However, I'm still around for a couple of hours and I intend to do that analysis and to post as often as necessary. I will announce my impending absence later.
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'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' Last edited by Estelyn Telcontar; 10-24-2005 at 10:57 AM. |
10-24-2005, 10:54 AM | #314 | |||
Dread Horseman
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Behind you!
Posts: 2,743
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Okay, I've been taking a closer look at tgwbs, and I've found some stuff that jumps out at me:
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Then comes this post here in Mirth, in which tg links to a pic of himself as a Weredwarf. I know the short one is a joker. Is he taunting us here, or just being foolishly indiscreet? #149 - tgwbs makes some analysis, including some definitive statements about several innocents. Time has proven him right on two out of three of those, and I trust morm, the last one on the list. What makes me nervous is how certain tg is so early in the game. Insight and a bit of recklessness, or wolfish knowledge showing? #164 - Reassesses under the pressure of reactions to his analysis -- which makes me a bit nervous. Admits that some of his statements will make him look as though he has contracted "extreme schizophrenia". An unfortunate choice of words, or is he taunting us again? #173 - Shorty gives all the reasons why he thinks he should vote for me, then votes for Shelob instead -- to keep a villager who was drawing a lot of suspicion alive? Hard to say. #206 - Emphasizes that he predicted lmp's death. He says this as if it should make us trust him more, but how is this to his credit? He could easily have foreseen the death of our Ranger because he helped orchestrate it. Doesn't seem sorry about Shelob's death or his role in it: "Oh well."[/QUOTE] Quote:
In 228 and 232, tg asks for more info from morm on his Form suspicion, then, less than three hours later -- and even after morm provided some explanation of his suspicions -- he abruptly declares, "I'm bored of waiting" and casts vote for Lhuna with no explanation in the vote post and not much more in previous "analysis" posts. Well, a closer look has made me feel worse, and not better about tgwbs. I see Fea has posted and I don't have time to reply in detail. I'll say she's right to bring me up on the Firefoot point -- I composed that before she posted "I changed my mind." I do think your assumptions in #276 about who she dreamed about were hasty though. Trying to throw us off? I've composed this up through about #303, so some of it may not take into account what has come after. I'll post it now and then read up, or I'll be stuck composing forever... |
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10-24-2005, 11:02 AM | #315 |
Dread Horseman
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Behind you!
Posts: 2,743
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Okay, caught up now -- sorry for the double-post. The investigation idea sounds good, even though I've already conducted my own look into tgwbs. I'll take a closer look at morm. He's on my most trusted list and apparently had the trust of our Seer as well, and presumably wouldn't propose a daisy-chain investigation if he had anything to hide, but who knows what closer examination will reveal?
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10-24-2005, 11:12 AM | #316 | |
Dread Horseman
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Behind you!
Posts: 2,743
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Sorry, one more thing I have to address very quickly:
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Being some sort of solo-rogue-individualist villager doesn't help anyone but the wolves -- if you're a wolf, it helps sow confusion and doubt; if you're innocent, it draws suspicion on yourself and only hinders the search for the true wolves. |
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10-24-2005, 11:19 AM | #317 | ||||||
Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
Posts: 2,343
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Votes based on silence are just another aspect of Werewolf infected villages that people disagree on a lot. I happen to believe that if somebody is going to be absent for prolonged periods of time, it gives nothing to work on in the future; thus, I aim to eliminate quiet people on the first Day. Quote:
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Finally, in response to Weredwarvery etc, may I not have my little jokes without falling under suspicion these days? ++TGWBS I want to be lynched with Encai, as I have stated. If Boro and Fea vote for me, I'd appreciate that (I never thought I'd say that...) Esty and Mr U can vote for Enca. Incase Enca returns and does something malicious, I'd like morm to stick around until the end. If Enca is not a wolf, on Day Two, please lynch: Feanor, Mr Underhill. Esty should be the one keeping her vote til the end, as I trust her most out of all of you, minus morm, who would die in the Night. |
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10-24-2005, 11:40 AM | #318 |
Dread Horseman
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Behind you!
Posts: 2,743
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Ai, living in a village with crazy villagers doesn't help root out the wolves. Shorty, if you know you're innocent, why vote for yourself and ask to be lynched? Why not push for the two strongest werewolf candidates?
Either this vote is as crazy and unhelpful as Anguirel offering his neck for the noose on Day One, or you're a desperate wolf trying to throw the rest of us off your scent by self-voting. Despite my analysis of tgwbs, I was still leaning towards Enca and Fea as the most likely wolf candidates. Now I don't know what to think. |
10-24-2005, 11:40 AM | #319 |
Princess of Skwerlz
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles)
Posts: 7,500
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Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't do that!!!!!!!!! Don't waste a perfectly good vote on someone who's not high on the suspected list! If the double lynching is to make any kind of sense, we need to vote for the top two on our list, all of us!
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'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...' |
10-24-2005, 11:41 AM | #320 |
Laconic Loreman
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tgwbs is noble indeed sacrificing himself. I wonder if it be an attempt to get us to say "oh he must not be guilty" and follow behind me in wanting to sacrifice myself when really he is a wolf bluffing? But, I doubt it, so close to the wolves defeat, I don't think a wolf would want to bluff his way out and be suicidal.
Whether I'm another "candidate" up for lynching or not, I still oppose a double-lynching, many things can go wrong. The cursed villager has been brought up, and if we end up lynching two innocents and not a wolf, of course we may have caught the cursed, but we might not have. In which the wolf stumbles upon luck and catches the cursed villager at Night, then it's over. Though this is highly unlikely, I'm sure its possible still if the Cursed happens to still be around.
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Fenris Penguin
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