Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Gurthang]

Well, I must say I am somewhat distrurbed by LMP. He seems sincere, but allow me to point something out:

Originally posted by LMP
4. The Seer will have dreamed of me last night, because of so much suspicion directed my way. And therefore will have been apprised of my innocence. But fat lot of good that does me, with seer dead. If the Seer has, by some crazy chance survived the Night, please vouch for me before you die, because you know I'm innocent.

That sounds like a wolfish attempt to flush out the Seer. That wouldn't make much sense, considering the Seer wouldn't vouch for him because either he hasn't been dreamed of or he knows that LMP's a wolf. Unless LMP is the cobbler. Or he could be bluffing.

I'm going to read back over his posts and see what I can find.

[Meneltarmacil]

I don'te thinke we shoulde let Durelin out of our sights. On ye firste Daye, she voteth not for Mithalwen, but for Firefoot, who turneth out to be innocente. On ye seconde Daye, she bandwagoneth withe CaptainofDespair and attempteth to lynche Ye Saucepan Man, while yesterDaye, she saith:

I think Gil-Galad is the Cobbler, and is too brash to be a wolf. Or he is simply the usual confused innocent villager

and insteade voteth for Boromir88. Notice a patterne? On bothe Days when a Wolfe is aboute to be lynched, she attacketh someone else. I thinke she is ye laste Wolfe, or ye Cobbler.

[littlemanpoet]

I've noticed that a few of you are immediately working with the hypothesis of "Say LMP is a werebeast; how do his words read?"

Seeing as I'm getting so much attention anyway: If you're thinking about voting to lynch me, I propose that you also try out the hypothesis of "Say LMP is actually an innocent Ord, fumbling around blindly just like the rest of us; how do his words read?"

Then compare your results. I haven't done the comparison because I already know what I am; I don't need to. But go ahead and do it, I request, and see what the results are. I'm not convinced I'll come out "smelling" any better, but I'd be interested to see what you come up with.

Okay, yes, I contradicted myself. My final paragraph and vote were tagged on very early this morning and I forgot to read what I'd written last night. Sorry. Consider my final paragraph to supercede the ones they contradict.

Lalaith, I still say you give me too much credit. I may have intelligence, but analysis is not my strength. I try to do my best, but as you have seen, I'm not that great at checking my facts - - - especially when I don't have the kind of time (or home computer) available that this situation requires.

Oh, and about the above proposal/request, ask yourself "why would LMP vote so early again...

1-if he was a werewolf?
2-if he was a werebear?
3-if he was an innocent Ord as he claims?

See what you come up with. Again, I'd be interested. Since I've already voted, I'm not sure how much I'll be back, but I promise to read every post at least once.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by The Monkey Man

I don'te thinke we shoulde let Durelin out of our sights. On ye firste Daye, she voteth not for Mithalwen, but for Firefoot, who turneth out to be innocente. On ye seconde Daye, she bandwagoneth withe CaptainofDespair and attempteth to lynche Ye Saucepan Man, while yesterDaye, she saith:

and insteade voteth for Boromir88. Notice a patterne? On bothe Days when a Wolfe is aboute to be lynched, she attacketh someone else. I thinke she is ye laste Wolfe, or ye Cobbler.

First of all, I knew Saucepan Man had you all against CoD, but I felt he was innocent, so I felt my best bet was to vote for who he considered to be guilty. I just did not want innocent blood on my hands.

And as for Gil...I'm sorry, but I think he played the role of the werewolf way too openly. I never would have expected a wolf to have done so. I suppose that might be why he risked it. But now we have two wolves down, and the victory of the village looks possible....though so does the victory of the bear.

LMP's plan is interesting. It might be our best bet. But we need to hear from Dancing Spawn, and it would be nice to hear some more from Nonnedack. I think it's more possible that Non is the bear, though it is also possible that he is a wolf, simply because there was little he could do to stop any lynchings of his fellow wolves. They were caught red-handed, being very wolfish.

I still am unsure about our Boromir. Unfortunately it seems he will be gone, and I'd much like to hear from him. Darn. Well, hopefully I shall have time to look over previous posts later (again).

I am also still not very trusting of Saucepan Man. I still think it's possible that he is a rather bold bear. Whatever he's been doing, it's been keeping him out of suspicion, either rightfully, or not.

And there should be no ruling out of anyone, I believe. We have one wolf and one bear left, and I think it's, in a way, easier for them to hide now.

EDIT: Cross-posted with LMP...maybe others....

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, folks, let’s not panic. While there’s no denying that arcticstorm’s death is a blow, it was not unexpected. And it was likely that another innocent would die too. I’m sorry that it was wilwarin, but it at least knocks another Villager off my suspect list. Take heart, fellow Villagers. Let’s look on the positives. We killed another Wolf last night, a fantastic result, and we still have our Seer and our Hunter.

Now, I have to date advocated keeping an eye out for the Bear, and I counsel no differently to-Day. But we have now happily arrived at a situation where killing either the Wolf or the Bear will put an end to the two kills per night. And, while a lone Wolf may be more difficult to spot, we do have much more to go on as far as the Wolf is concerned. In particular, the votes cast to date. I therefore believe that we should today concentrate on catching the last Wolf. The fact that we have now killed two Wolves makes the previous days’ votes even more helpful in this task.

So, here’s my traditional list of yester-Day’s votes:

1. Durelin for Boromir88 (Boromir 88 - 1)
2. Menel for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 1)
3. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 2)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3)
5. Laitaine for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Nonnacedak - 1)
6. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Nonnacedak - 1)
7. Lalaith for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1)
8. Dancing spawn for LMP (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1; LMP - 1)
9. LMP for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
10. SamwiseGamgee for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
11. Wilwarin538 for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1)
12. Arcticstorm for Durelin (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1)
13. SpM for dancing spawn (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1; dancing spawn - 1)

Gil-Galad did not vote. (Perhaps he thought that, by not doing so, he would divert suspicion away from himelf should he survive the Day.)

So what can we learn from this?

I would say that the following are almost certainly not Wolves, because of their early votes for Gil-Galad:

Meneltarmacil
Boromir88
Nonnacedak
Gurthang

That list happily coincides with my list of Villagers who are almost certainly not Wolves from the Mithalwen vote. SamwiseGamgee was on that list and for that reason, I believe him innocent of Werewolvery too. Nonnacedak has pointed out that he is the only Villager to have voted for a Wolf on each Day. I had noticed that too. His votes are so not the votes of a Wolf. So I hope that we will have no more nonsense about him being the Wolf.

*glares at LMP and Laitaine*

The only other person to vote for Gil-Galad was Lalaith. At the time she voted, he could still have been saved. But it was unlikely and she perhaps thought that she would be better off voting for him to given the appearance of innocence and “go it alone” as the lone Wolf. So she remains one of my suspects, but less so.

That leaves:

The Saucepan Man
Durelin
Laitaine
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
LMP

Indeed, if you look back on the previous Days’ voting, knowing now the identity of two of the Wolves, these are the Villagers whose votes look the most suspicious. Laitiane and dancing spawn have voted suspiciously each day.

Yes, I am on one of my own lists again. How bold of me! Only, I can assure you, if you are not already convinced, that I am no Wolf and I am no Bear.

I said yesterday that I do not believe that LMP is the Wolf. I did not say why. I think that perhaps I should now explain. On Day 1, as has been noted on a number of occasions, Mithalwen suggested that he might be the Seer. Her grounds for doing so were his status as a replacement of Azaelia of Willowbottom. If he was a Wolf, she would surely not have drawn attention to that issue. I had been reluctant to point this out earlier in case he was the Seer. I am now convinced that he is not. He is either the Hunter, the Cobbler or the Bear. So he should not be lynched today (assuming that you agree with me that we should be focusing on the Wolf).

In light of all that, I am now all but convinced that our remaining Wolf is one of the following:

Durelin
Laitaine
Lalaith
Dancing spawn

Let’s examine each one in detail:

Durelin: She voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, for a known innocent. Her early vote for me on Day 2 is less suspicious – wanting to save CaptainofDespair in case he was the ranger (as he was) is most un-Wolfish behaviour. She was top of Gil-Galad’s Day 2 suspect list (the only suspect list he ever made). She voiced suspicions of him on Day 3, but thought that he was either the Cobbler or a confused innocent (as did I). Her early vote for Boromir88, who never seemed like a potential lynch victim to me, was most un-Wolfish. She is suspicious, but least so out of my four Wolf suspects.

Laitaine: She also voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1, again for a known innocent, and mildly defended Mithalwen at the same time (although I recognise that she would have had a better chance of saving Mithalwen had she voted for Gurthang, Firefoot or Menel). She was mildly suspicious of Gil-Galad on Day 2, but also suggested that he might simply be “deranged”. She did not vote for him, but instead voted for Durelin to put her equal on votes with Gil. In her favour, Gil-Galad did also include her on his Day 2 suspect list, but that may have been a tactic in case he was caught. Laitaine mentioned Gil-Galad (amongst others) as suspicious on Day 3, but later suggested that he seemed only to be a “bumbling fool”, rather than a Wolf. And she defended him again when voting (for Nonnacedak), suggesting that he was innocent but “rather thick”. At that time, he still only had 3 votes and might yet have been spared the noose. Indeed, Laitaine seems to have been quite dismissive of Gil’s guilt throughout – perhaps supporting his “nonchalant” behaviour. What better way to surreptitiously defend a fellow Wolf than to criticise him as an innocent fool. She is very suspicious, although she is almost certainly not the Bear (because of her vote for Alcarillo followed by his death at the Bear’s hands (paws?) the very next Night).

Lalaith: She mildly defended Mithalwen and voted against the Mithalwen bandwagon on Day 1 for another potential lynchee, but not the obvious one (Gurthang). She voiced no suspicion of Gil-Galad on Day 2 and voted for CaptainofDespair at a time when Gil-Galad could still have been lynched (although that could potentially have resulted in a double lynching). She voted for Gil-Galad on Day 3, but had not accused him at all previously, having said that he was either just being himself or was the Cobbler. Moreover, her Day 3 vote came at a time when he was looking likely to be lynched. She is still suspicious. She could be trying to hide with her vote for Gil, having decided that the Village looks kindly on those who have voted for Wolves and thinking she had a good chance of going it alone. But I suspect her less than I did.

Dancing spawn: On Day 1, she said that she thought that it was the Village’s primary aim to catch the Bear (perhaps an attempt to protect the Wolves). She could have been hiding with her vote for Mithalwen on Day 1, since Mithalwen’s fate was practically sealed. She did voice suspicions of Mithalwen when she still could have been saved, although she also said at the same time that we should not necessarily be looking at those who were most suspicious. She did voice strong suspicions of Gil on Day 2, but said she thought he might be the Cobbler. She then voted for CaptainofDespair to put him two ahead of Gil. She maintained her stance that Gil-Galad was the Cobbler on Day 3 and voted for LMP, a possible Bear (or Cobbler) but no Wolf. Her defence at #227 seemed to me to be a little over-the-top, but perhaps a Wolf would be careful to avoid displaying the same behaviour that gave Mithalwen away. Dancing spawn is still very suspicious in my eyes, but less so than Laitaine.

So my suspects for Wolf are Laitaine, dancing spawn, Lalaith and Durelin – in that order. LMP is still my prime suspect for Bear but, as I said, I think that we should focus on the Wolf today.

[Lalaith]

Something has occurred to me.
Lmp may be the Cobbler. Yesterday, he urged the Seer to dream of him. If the Seer did indeed dream of him, he will just see an ordinary villager, of course.

SpM, I insist you you retract this statement about me, as misleading and untrue:

but [Lalaith] had not accused him at all previously, having said that he was either just being himself or was the Cobbler.

Here's what I said in post 220.

Gil-Galad - Like nearly all of us have said. Could be a wolf, could be the cobbler, could just be Gil.

Chief wolf suspects: LMP and dancing spawn. Minor wolf suspect: Gil.

I shall now go over your statements about others as well to check for accuracy. *glares suspiciously*

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

SpM, I insist you you retract this statement about me, as misleading and untrue

Calm down, Lal! You have moved from chief Wolf suspect to Wolf suspect No 4 on my list over-Night.

OK, it's not strictly correct, for which I apologise. I had not spotted your reference to him as a minor Wolf suspect, admittedly. But there was no intention to mislead and I don't think it really changes the import of my point.

Edit: That should be Wolf suspect No 3 ...

[Lalaith]

Harrumph. You miners are all the same. Putting words into people's mouths and twisting them something they didn't mean.

[The Saucepan Man]

Some thoughts on what has been said so far today.

Originally Posted by LMP

The Seer will be killed tonight, attacked by both werebear and werewolf, because that person has not bee subtle enough to escape their notice.

This was LMP’s prediction for last Night. Personally, I think that the Seer has been very subtle – perhaps even too subtle (and no, that’s not an attempt to flush him or her out). However, I think that LMP may have thought that he had spotted the Seer yester-Day. I also believe that he dropped a hint as to who it might be and that (assuming that he is the Cobbler or the Bear) he was hoping that the Wolf would have picked up on it. I have an idea who LMP thinks the Seer might be, but I think that he’s wrong.

Originally Posted by LMP

Nonnacedak will not have been killed, because I think … [he] is the remaining Wolf.

Originally Posted by Laitaine

I still think the final werewolf is our fisher, Non.
Makes perfect sense for him to jump on wagon for Gil‘s kill,

Please. Just look at his votes. A Wolf might vote for another Wolf at a critical time once or, if very bold, twice even. But three nights in a row!!??

LMP’s and Laitaine’s insistence that Nonnacedak is the Wolf look very suspicious to me. He may be the Bear, but he is not a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I know suspicions of me are arrising.

They are? As far as I can tell, only Durelin is suspicious of you.

Originally Posted by LMP

Oh, and about the above proposal/request, ask yourself "why would LMP vote so early again...

1-if he was a werewolf?
2-if he was a werebear?

Simple. You would do so to divert suspicion. Your early Day 1 vote has previously been noted as making you seem overly suspicious and therefore not something a Were-thing would do. If you are innocent, then you should not be voting with such haste, before we have all had a chance to share our thoughts over yester-Day’s lynching and last Night’s kills. I suspect dancing spawn too but I cannot be anything like certain and most certainly would not vote for her without giving her the opportunity to speak.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Lmp may be the Cobbler. Yesterday, he urged the Seer to dream of him. If the Seer did indeed dream of him, he will just see an ordinary villager, of course.

A very good point. If he’s not the Bear, he may well be the Cobbler. Either way, however, I think we should be looking for the Wolf today.

And it seems to me that, so far to-Day, there has been far too much defensiveness and not enough analysis.

[Lalaith]

Actually I would ask the Seer, whoever s/he, to be careful. I think attempts are being made to flush him/her out, and with eleven of us left of which only two killers remain, we need you around more than ever....

I am becoming increasingly convinced that lmp must be the Cobbler. As well as my Seer point earlier, I thought - why else flush out arcticstorm as Shirriff so conspiciously? If Lmp were a bear or wolf, having realised arcticstorm was the Shirriff he could just have killed him that night, the open way it was done suggests it was done for the benefit of the weres, not actually by a were.
So today we could do a lot worse than lynch Lmp.
BUT, Lmp's vote for spawn has got me wondering. Could it be a double bluff? Lmp knows he is under suspicion by an awful lot of us. His lead is unlikely to be followed, the vote might divert the rest of us away from spawn.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I'm with SpM on this one- let's try to lynch the wolf tonight and concentrate on bearish behaviour later on. At the moment I do have a pretty good idea of who is the bear, but the wolf I am not so sure of. I think that Laitaine, however, is our biggest suspect at the moment. However, now that we know that Gil was a werewolf, we know that the werewolves were clearly willing to take some pretty considerable and frankly brazen risks to try and win this one, which means that some people who hadn't originally featured in my thinking are now creaping their way in.

As a little extra, lmp, I want you to know that I am not satisfied with the explanations you have given for the criticisms you made of me way back when (no really, when was that? I shall have to check!) and I will confront you on that soon, but not today: today I have other business.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Actually I would ask the Seer, whoever s/he, to be careful. I think attempts are being made to flush him/her out, and with eleven of us left of which only two killers remain, we need you around more than ever....

I thoroughly agree. I do not, repeat not, want the Seer to come forward unless they have identified both of our remaining beasts. However, I do have some thoughts as to who the Seer might be and will be scanning certain Villager's posts very carefully for some guidance.

So today we could do a lot worse than lynch Lmp.

We could do a lot better, though.

LMP as Cobbler is beginning to make a lot of sense, Lalaith. Your reasoning looks sound to me and I am now beginning to suspect you a lot less than I did previously.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

However, now that we know that Gil was a werewolf, we know that the werewolves were clearly willing to take some pretty considerable and frankly brazen risks to try and win this one ...

True, although it is more likely, in my view, that the Wolves will have behaved in different ways to avoid becoming conspicuous through similar patterns of behaviour.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by SpM

I suspect dancing spawn too but I cannot be anything like certain and most certainly would not vote for her without giving her the opportunity to speak.

Thanks, that's very generous of you.
Well, my vote for Mith is suspicious because I voted a wolf with the majority and my vote for lmp is supicious because I didn't vote a wolf with the majority. Make your minds, good people.

The Seer has done great job hiding his/her role. I trust the Seer's own deliberative ability to decide when to step forth. Anyway, the Seer is welcome to dream of me because I have nothing to hide.

I'll go now back to read what everybody has said during these last days. I just wanted to let you know that I'm here in case you want to start accusing me.

[Gurthang]

LMP, after going back and reading through you posts, I am now much less convinced that you are the werewolf or the werebear. But I am becoming increasingly suspicious that you are the cobbler.

One thing I have noticed is that you doubt your own ability to analyze and deduct, yet you said that you know who the Seer is because they have not been subtle enough. If true, you are obviously, and thankfully, smarter than the werecreatures because our Seer is still alive.

I'm going to look over the voting, and try to make a table out of it so it will be easier to read. I don't know if that will work, but...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

It's a shame that it was the wolf that killed Alcarillo because his death hardly leaves us any tracks to follow. The bear, for one, can kill whomever s/he pleases so I guess we can't draw too many conclusions from Wilwa's death, either.

I think it's plausible that lmp is the cobbler since I'm fairly convinced that there's something wrong with him. However, I agree that it's the easiest and most rewarding thing to kill the wolf today.

Btw, I don't like when people say things like "any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things" or "I must be a really stupid bear to coontinually vote the same way people have claimed the bear would vote". There aren't rules how a werebeast will act. Therefore there aren't any rules how they won't act, either.

[Meneltarmacil]

I can'te put my finger on what Laitaine mighte be hiding. I doubte she is an Ordinary Villager, but what she truly is I knowe not. She maye be a Wolfe withe ye way she defendeth Gil-Galad and did not give her vote to Mithalwen, but suche actiones may indicate a Cobbler as welle.

A Wolfe she may be, in my opinione at leaste. I shalle be watching her, and will vote for her later unlesse something better cometh along.

[Gurthang]

Okay, making a table is taking way to long, so I am just going to copy Saucepan Man's lists from each day. I have put wolf names and those that voted for them in Bold.

Day 1

1. LMP for Gurthang (Gurthang 1)
2. Mithalwen for Gurthang (Gurthang 2)
3. CaptainofDespair for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 1)
4. SamwiseGamgee for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2)
5. Durelin for Firefoot (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2; Firefoot 1)
6. Meneltarmacil for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
7. Gil-Galad for Gurthang (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
8. Boromir88 for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 4; Firefoot 1)
9. Alcarillo for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 5; Firefoot 1)
10. Nonnacedak for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1)
11. Mormegil for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1)
12. Laitaine for Alcarillo (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1)
13. Gurthang for Durelin (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
14. Lalaith for Menltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
15. Arcticstorm for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 7; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
16. Dancing spawn for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 8; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
17. The Saucepan Man for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 9; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
18. Firefoot for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 10; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)

Did not vote: Encaitare and wilwarin538 (although wilwa had earlier explained that she might not be able to vote).

Day 2

1. CaptainofDespair for SpM (SpM – 1)
2. Durelin for SpM (SpM – 2)
3. Meneltarmacil for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair – 1)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 1; Gil-Galad – 1)
5. SamwiseGamgee for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 2; Gil-Galad – 1)
6. Boromir88 for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 3; Gil-Galad – 1)
7. arcticstorm for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad – 1)
8. Laitaine for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 1; Durelin – 1)
9. Wilwarin538 for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 2; Durelin – 1)
10. Encaitare for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 1)
11. LMP for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
12. Dancing spawn for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
13. Firefoot for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 3)
14. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
15. SpM for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 6; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
16. Lalaith for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 7; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)

Gil-Galad did not vote.

And Day 3

1. Durelin for Boromir88 (Boromir 88 - 1)
2. Menel for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 1)
3. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 2)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3)
5. Laitaine for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Nonnacedak - 1)
6. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Nonnacedak - 1)
7. Lalaith for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1)
8. Dancing spawn for LMP (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1; LMP - 1)
9. LMP for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
10. SamwiseGamgee for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
11. Wilwarin538 for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1)
12. Arcticstorm for Durelin (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1)
13. SpM for dancing spawn (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1; dancing spawn - 1)

Gil-Galad did not vote. (Perhaps he thought that, by not doing so, he would divert suspicion away from himelf should he survive the Day.)

Seeing as how both Gil and Mithalwen voted for me on Day 1, it would stand to reason that the other wolf would not have voted for me. Which is exactly the reason I am suspicious of LMP. It's too good of a bluff to not work out. Yet his other posts make me think he is a cobbler rather than the third wolf.

So, let's take a look at the voting (of us living).

Nonnacedak is the only one who voted for a wolf every day.

Those that got wolves two out of three:
Boromir, Gurthang, Meneltarmacil, and SamwiseGamgee.

Those that got wolves one out of three:
Dancing Spawn, Lalaith, and Saucepan Man.

And those that never got a wolf:
Durelin, LMP, and Laitaine.

It makes sense to me that a wolf would not vote for a fellow were all three times. It is also unlikely they would not vote for their fellow at least once. That leaves the middle seven of us.

Boromir- voted early for Mith on Day 1 to put her ahead of me. Not very supsect.

Gurthang- (of course I don't suspect myself, but I'll write something here anyway) Voted for Gil two in a row, and early yesterday.

Meneltarmacil - voted early for Mith on Day 1, also to put her ahead of me. Not very suspect.

SamwiseGamgee - voted for Gil to seal his fate. (There still could have been a tie, but Gil would have died anyway.) Slightly suspect because the other voters that day weren't sticking together.

Dancing Spawn - voted late for Mith to seal death's door. Yet Saucepan had still voiced intent to vote for Mith. Slightly suspect.

Lalaith - voted in the middle for Gil to give him a four vote lead. Not very suspect.

Saucepan Man - voted late for Mith after death was assured. Slightly suspect.

Of the three that I just named 'Slightly suspect', I am only slightly suspect because I have not suspected them before this. I'd be interested in hearing some more from them.

I also note that LMP and Durelin have not voted for a wolf, and I have supsected both of them before.

Wow, sorry that was so long.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, I've had it. The more I say, the more everybody suspects me of something I'm not. Meanwhile the Cobbler, Werewolf, and Werebear are all chortling to themselves. They'll leave me alone every night because everybody suspects me so freakin' much until everybody decides to waste their bloody Day (whether it's 4 or later) voting to lynch me.

If I say "lynch me to at least stop confusing everybody who is also innocent", you'll all just figure that proves I'm the cobbler.

SPM, I'm sorry for not playing according to your favorite strategy, or even good strategy. My early vote this time was to try and flush out somebody or something, to take the initiative away from the bad guys, if I could. But it's getting all of the innocents more off track than anything else. I'm very sorry about that. It seems every time I say something you guys just read all kinds of stuff into it that I realize after the fact appears to be there. I apologize. I'm frustrated because I want us Innocents to bloody win, and at this rate it won't happen.

Oh, and SPM, AND EVERYBODY ELSE: I noticed that you didn't even consider the remote possibility that I'm just playing a really bad strategic game and am a bloody Innocent. I'm sorry to have mislead you all so badly.

I still think SPM is innocent, just wrong about me which means he's wrong about the Werebear. On everything else I think he's probably on target.

And Lal, please forgive me for acting cobblerish. I see how that can be read into my actions and words now. I sure as heck didn't mean it. This is SO d***d frustrating!!!

Oh, and Seer, don't come out until you have something. I'm expendable, but that does NOT make me the bloody cobbler! Gah!

Gurthang, the Seer is alive because the Seer is probably not who I thought it was. Smart Seer, yes. But it does not equate to me playing a very smart game.

I'm causing you guys so much confusion by UNINTENTIONALLY throwing you off track that you're right, I AM playing cobblerish, which is a shame, because I'm not the cobbler. But it may be better to get me out of the way anyway just so you have a clean slate.... on the off chance that we can beat the odds with 2 kills per Night for at least one more Night. I'm really sorry for setting back our odds, but maybe you just better off me, even though I'm innocent. And Ordinary.

No, please don't waste your Day lynching an Ordinary Innocent, because we need all the Days we have to get the werebeasts AND the cobbler.

I'm shutting up now because the more I say the more all the rest of you innocents get off track reading bullcrap into my words.

[Nonnacedak]

I find this last post by LMP rather entertaining.

Gurthang's

Nonnacedak is the only one who voted for a wolf every day.

Enough said

At this point I think Laitaine is the lone wolf because she voted for me right after I voted for Gil the second time.

LMP has slide down my suspicions list for now

Hopefully the Seer can make some good guesses and help us out a bit. The bear is going to be difficult to find without it.

[littlemanpoet]

Thanks, Nonna, I think.

By the by, SPM has convinced me of your innocence. Thanks for the words of semi-confidence.

[Gurthang]

LMP, I don't know if that was all true or not, but either way it was pretty funny! I got this great mental image of you jumping around all mad and swearing and throwing things. That was great. (BTW, if I think you are the cobbler, which I still kinda do, I wouldn't vote for you; I'd just ignore everying you said )

I think I'll go read Durelin's posts, I don't really have anybody I'm extremely suspicious of right now.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

...if I think you are the cobbler, which I still kinda do, I wouldn't vote for you; I'd just ignore everying you said.

Better yet, just ignore EVERYTHING I've said. That way you won't get confused by misreading any of my words.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Take a deeeep breath, lmp. Frustrating when people think that you're something you're not, isn't it?

Our feline Durelin is confusing me (not probably in a cobblerish way, though). First I thought that she was a gifted, then I realized that she could be a werecreature and now she just seems fairly innocent to me. However, she has done some pretty weird things on these days. Her votes have been lone votes for people whom I'm hardly suspicious at all (as if that was any criterion but...) and her list about who are the wolves and who are gifteds was...err, interesting. But that doesn't necessarily mean anythinig.

I'm way too tired to think anything useful to say right now so I'm off to bed.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

It's a shame that it was the wolf that killed Alcarillo because his death hardly leaves us any tracks to follow.

I presume that you mean arcticstorm. But that's rather a strange thing to say, isn't it? Not only is it stating the obvious - it's a shame when any innocent dies and moreso a Gifted - but we all knew that it was pretty likely to happen and we all knew that his death would leave few tracks because he declared himself the Shirriff fairly early on yester-Day.

With each post you make, dancing spawn, my hopes are raised that you may dispel my dounbts over you. And with each post you disappoint. You say very little to actually help us in our hunt for the lycanthropes. All that you have done today, other than mildly defend yourself and make assertions of the obvious, is agree with most others that LMP may well be the Cobbler. Can't you just tell us which way you are thinking with regard to the beasts? But now you have retired to bed without having done so.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

It is also unlikely they would not vote for their fellow at least once.

Given that the two Wolves that we have killed only voted twice between them, I would disagree. Also, the voting has been quite tight throughout most of each of the preceeding Days. I wouldn't be surprised if the remaining Wolf has never voted for a fellow Wolf. Once at most. Which points towards the bottom six on your list.

I also note that LMP and Durelin have not voted for a wolf, and I have supsected both of them before.

Neither has Laitaine. Why did you not mention her?

Why is there so little suspicion of Laitaine? Only SamwiseGamgee and I have expressed any serious doubts about her, although Menel gibbered vaguely about her. Am I missing something here? She is the only Villager who has voted suspiciously on every Day. Go on. Just look at her votes.

Of the three that I just named 'Slightly suspect', I am only slightly suspect because I have not suspected them before this. I'd be interested in hearing some more from them.

You want to hear more from me? Really? I would have thought that I have said more than enough already. Well, OK then. I am innocent. You should have figured out why by now.

I too was amused by LMP's rant. But it only serves to encourage my growing conviction that he is the Cobbler (I can hear his exasperated (but non-Wolvish) howl right now ). It's less the behaviour of a Bear, but it could be a double bluff. Anyhow, we should not vote for him today.

Right now, I am inclined to vote for either Laitaine or dancing spawn.

[Nonnacedak]

Why is there so little suspicion of Laitaine? Only SamwiseGamgee and I have expressed any serious doubts about her, although Menel gibbered vaguely about her.

I believe I have put Laitaine at the top of my suspect list. Im sure you just missed my measly little post but I just wanted to reaffirm that I believe Laitaine to be the last wolf.

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by The Saucepan Man

Neither has Laitaine. Why did you not mention her?

I didn't mention her because the statement was meant to include those I have suspected before, and I have not suspected her. I don't recall anything that I've seen her do that has made me suspicious.

LMP, thanks for pointing out my bad spelling.

Saucepan, you make a good point about the two lynched wolves only voting once each. I had noticed that, but hadn't thought too much into it. Which makes me laugh, because the only person the wolves have voted for has been me.

[Nonnacedak]

I was looking through Liataine's posts and I found this suspicious. Its from day 1

Originally Posted by Laitaine

Friends, the day is growing short and votes have flown around
Yet I’ve not seen a single person to be guilty-found.
True, Mithalwen’s accusations are somewhat strange to see,
But she had little time to post and must speak her mind quickly

She accuses then defends Mith in this statement. That is definatly something a wolf would do.

She also voted for Alcarillo in that same post who died I believe that first night. I have named my other suspicions of her in my past posts.

Im pretty much for sure voting for her but I will wait out and see what she says in her defense.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nonnacedak

I believe I have put Laitaine at the top of my suspect list. Im sure you just missed my measly little post but I just wanted to reaffirm that I believe Laitaine to be the last wolf.

I'm sorry for doing you a disservice, Nonnacedak. I was in a hurry when I posted before. I had noted your suspicion of Laitaine. I just neglected to include mention of you in my haste.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I didn't mention her because the statement was meant to include those I have suspected before, and I have not suspected her. I don't recall anything that I've seen her do that has made me suspicious.

Then please look back at her posts and, in particular, when and how she has voted.

Originally Posted by Nonnacedak

She accuses then defends Mith in this statement. That is definatly something a wolf would do.

Indeed. It is one of the reasons that I suspect her strongly. Take a look at these snippets too:

Originally Posted by Laitaine

It seems that there’s precious little proof to go on for today,
The only strangeness I observe is Gil’s vague-speaking way.
Of course, I too thought Alcarillo’s quietness was strange
But I was wrong on that account, so can Gil be deranged?

Originally Posted by Laitaine

So far, the only people I've seen act suspiciously:
Gil-galad and Non, both too quiet and very vague too me.

Gil has written such a lack, it's really hard to know
And Non has seemed to bent on telling us that he's no foe.
Out of the two, Gil just seems a rather bumbling fool

(no offense)

Notice the similarity? On each occasion, she makes mention of a Wolf's suspicious behaviour but then seeks to dismiss it.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Some interesting discussion being had there, fellows of Hamlet. Whilst being most amused indeed by lmp's crazy rant, I couldn't help but keep my suspicions up.

Originally posted by The Saucepan Man
True, although it is more likely, in my view, that the Wolves will have behaved in different ways to avoid becoming conspicuous through similar patterns of behaviour.

But SpM, I can't help but think that maybe now lmp is trying a ridiculous double bluff. Now, having said that, I don't think him the wolf, but nonetheless I wonder if there's potential for him trying some elaborate scheme to escape wrath by being a bear, copying a wolf but us all thinking that no one would be so stupid! I don't know. Anyway, I won't be voting for lmp today, my concentration lies on the wolf. I've pretty much decided how I'll vote, but shall refrain for consideration.

Oh, and as a quick p.s. while I remember:

Originally posted by none other than myself
I'm becoming more and more sure that Gil is calling our bluff. I suspected him yesterday and having read his posts today, and especially #237, I'm pretty convinced that he's up to something. But what? is it cobbler, bear or audacious werewolf? Who knows. Also, Enca voted for him yesterday. Now, sure, I hear you groan that that's just too predictable and nobody'd be so stupid- but i just can't help wonder if it's one of those dangerous dances on the knife-edge of stupidity and brilliance.

That'll be on the side of stupidity, then. We did well, guys.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Well I just realised that last quote was because at the time I suspected Gil of beariness. That's what I get for trying to be smart, eh?

Anyway, after some reinvestigation and note-studying I have decided that I shall vote. I'd just like to say, before I do though, that there is good reason for my early vote: I'm up in 7 hours for work, and thereafter won't be able to get online. I toyed with the idea of not voting, but I feel confident that this won't be a wated vote. *crosses fingers!*

++ Laitaine

[Boromir88]

Took a little longer then I expected, but I'm back and will read through the posts and put in whatever I have to offer.

[Meneltarmacil]

I have not made my minde up aboute LMP yet. He mighte be a Beaste/Cobbler, or he mighte be innocente. I wille have to looke into it some more. In the meantime, thoughe, I wille probably vote for Laitaine in an houre or two, due to her suspiciouse voting patterne and her tendency to conveniently droppe Wolves from her suspicions.

[Boromir88]

Hmm, well reading though everything Laitane has grown up deeply in suspicion. As the last wolf? It's definitely growing in my mind.

LMP, has sort of slipped back. I don't know, I guess I'm buying his comments on not making sense, and just don't pay attention to him anymore. I still have suspicions on him, but he's nowhere near the top.

I think there should be no consideration by the Seer to step forward as of right now. Especially with still two killers on the loose. Though, it'd be nice to go down to one after tonight.

I have a possible way to find the bear, but since we are intent on catching the wolf tonight, I'll hold off.

I have no idea what to make of dancing spawn. She does defend herself, but it's ever so slight and as Saucepan says she's added very little.

Top wolves:
1. Laitane
2. dancing spawn.

[Gurthang]

Well, I've read through some of Laitaine's posts, and I do see what you think is suspicious. Most of her posts seem to arouse suspicion and then cast doubt as to its credibility. Really, that provides nothing to the conversation, and only makes our heads spin. Cobblery? but I though that was LMP...

I don't really have any other real suspects at the moment. So I would not be surprised if I voted for Laitaine later. I'm still watching LMP and Durelin, though. None of those three voted for a wolf the first 3 Days and they all voted differently each day. The order of suspicion probably goes: Laitaine, LMP, Durelin. Yet they are all pretty close in my mind.

[Meneltarmacil]

Welle, I mighte as welle cast my vote now.

++Laitaine

is ye moste likely suspecte, for reasons I have stated earlier. Plus, a wolfe pelte woulde looke goode in my Greate Hall...

[Durelin]

It seems it's between Laitaine and Dancing Spawn. In my mind, they are not the only possibilities (I don't feel comfortable trusting anyone, even with only one wolf and the bear left) But, for reasons stated mainly by LMP and Saucepan Man (surprise, surprise)...

++Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

I'm not getting up early tomorrow, sorry. Take that as you will.

cross-posted with Meneltmarcil. Thanks Menel for making my vote look strategic.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, it seems as though I have started a Laitaine bandwaggon here. Ulp! That always worries me ...

The votes currently stand at:

Laitaine - 2
Dancing spawn - 2

I still don't know which one of those to vote for. Laitaine is the slightly more suspicious in my eyes. But it could be either. Which way will our Cobbler vote, I wonder, if the votes stay evenly divided between them (if he or she has not voted already)?

I have not discounted the possibilty of Lalaith and Durelin. Perhaps they will not be in contention today. If so, I doubt that I will vote for one of them. In which case I shall have to choose between Laitaine and dancing spawn. I have time. I will wait to see how things pan out.

[Boromir88]

I am not totally convinced on dancing spawn, and do not wish to jump into a hasty decision that contributed to Captain's lynching. Right now Laitane looks more suspicious, but I too will wait it out for a while. Hopefully things get cleared up better, but doesn't look like it.

[Boromir88]

I've debated long enough, knowing I won't get up in time to vote (especially since it's Saturday), I'll have to cast my decision now.

As I said above I'm less inclined to vote for dancing spawn. She's been ever so slightly growing in suspicion, but it's a move I can't make yet, just seems too risky at this time...

++Laitane