Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Speaking of Greenie, who do we think will be joining us in a few hours? I think Greenie and Rikae might be Seer-targets, and I think Rikae is the obvious person to be protected toNight after their hinting yesterDay, which might unfortunately make Greenie a safer choice for the wolves. They might also go for someone quiet like Shasta, though.

I think it's likely to be one of those two, and if it isn't we need to wonder why. The other choice, of course, is Nilp... I don't think we'll see him here; with how erratic he's been, the wolves will have to wonder if he's a) the Cobbler, or b) laying traps outside his own door toNight.

Could Rikae's blatant hint have been an attempt to divert attention from Greenie's more subtle one? If we go with the theory that BG was killed for literally saying 'will I dream?', then Rikae may think the wolves are going after really obvious targets.

hS

[Loslote]

I do think that in this game, with the two protective Gifteds, it has to occur to innocents that there should be at least one person setting themselves up as obvious "bait". I did it, BG kind of did it, Nilp claims he did it (all of us with limited success). So I wouldn't be surprised if Rikae decided to make themselves the "bait" for toNight.

[Blind Guardian]

Edit: image didn't load. Gimme a minute.

Okay I don't know how to get images to appear in the thread.

Oh well, attached is the voting tally. Left is sorted by name. Right is sorted by time stamp.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Oh well, attached is the voting tally. Left is sorted by name. Right is sorted by time stamp.

From which we can see immediately how bad (or unlucky?) this village has been. Five of the eleven survivors have only voted for people we now know to be innocent; if we include Nilp on the 'confirmed innocent' list, we find only three of them have voted for potential baddies. Greenie hasn't had any of her votees killed yet; Mac and Pitch voted Pitch and Kath on Day 1. That's it. Of the 32 votes cast by the current survivors, 23 were cast on now-known innocents.

hS

[Blind Guardian]

Honestly, looking at this is pretty apparent that Greenie is the stand out.

Literally everyone else voted for Form.

My guess is Legate is a Wolf. Greenie is the Seer. Greenie is dying tonight.

Unless the Ranger is paying attention and caught what we caught. If the Ranger goes after Nilp and not Greenie...

If Nilp is a Wolf then that was a good play to distract the Ranger. If Nilp is the BH imma be mad.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Of the 32 votes cast by the current survivors, 23 were cast on now-known innocents.

Okay.

So let's assume the wolves don't straightforwardly involve themselves in bandwagons which end up lynching innocents - because they know which bandwagons to avoid - but they will take part in some, especially on D3 when there weren't too many to be of a different opinion.

So four wolves making three votes each is 12 votes. I would say it goes something like 40-60 for wolves joining succesful innocent-bandawagons (them voting an innocent who is lynched 40% of the time the most, and nicely hiding behind a non lynched candidate 60% of the time), as a conservative estimate. It could be 1/3 vs. 2/3 as well - which would be even worse from the villagers' POV.

Looking at the craziness of D3 voting we might need to bring that percentage to 50-50 as the wolves had no other option but to comply (basically Brinn's complaint could be read as well as a frustrated wolf's cry of "doggone it" than an innocent's).

With that ratio we'd have the wolves giving 6 votes to others than the known innocents, so meanwhile the rest of the village (8 people) have given votes to "not-known innocents" only three times!

8 innocent villagers 3 votes each - and only three of those votes have gone to someone else than a now known innocent!




They really need to pull themselves together now.

Originally Posted by BG

My guess is Legate is a Wolf. Greenie is the Seer. Greenie is dying tonight.

I'm afraid that might be true. And if what happens toNight is because of:

Originally Posted by BG

If the Ranger goes after Nilp and not Greenie...

If Nilp is a Wolf then that was a good play to distract the Ranger. If Nilp is the BH imma be mad.

then I'm going to be a little frustrated as well...


So thumbs up for the Ranger!

[Nogrod]

Naturally, it all could go down a totally different route.

Let's say Nilp is the Seer who panicked - or for some other reason - decided to go on some dashingly daring game? That is not totally out of question.

Or maybe Greenie is just a really smart wolf who fools us all? (In that case I'd say she'd deserve victory)

Maybe Lommy's lament at the end of D3 - which felt quite convincing - was actually her plot trying to steer away those few who might have suspected her on D4, or at least make them hesitate just enough to save her from the ropes?

Or: while my reason keeps reminding me, that Legate is the most believable wolf-candidate, but in the back of my mind there is this nagging voice saying, "Maybe you're wrong? Maybe he's just short on time (as he has said) or something and the rest is just conjecture?".



Well, four minutes...

[Blind Guardian]

I reloaded the living thread as say the red ++Legate and was no way the Wolves lynched her and then realised that was us Dead. I gotta go calm down...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I reloaded the living thread as say the red ++Legate and was no way the Wolves lynched her and then realised that was us Dead. I gotta go calm down...

[Blind Guardian]

*throws hands up in the air*

[Loslote]

Welcome, Greenie and Legate!

[Boromir88]

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - murdered by pack Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - lynched Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Lynched Day 2
Blind Guardian (Villager) - killed by pack Night 3
Formendacil (Villager) - lynched Day 3
A Little Green (Seer) - kill by pack Night 4
Legate of Amon Lanc (Werewolf) - caught in BH booby trap Night 4

Welcome. Greenie and Legate!

Enjoy reading all the hair pulling yesterday the dead was doing about the Living thread

[Nogrod]

WHOA!!!

We were right on both!


But what this means remains to be thought of.


Anyway: welcome Greenie and also Legate - and kudos to the Trapper!

Take a comfy chair- there is no Spanish Inquisition here.

[Blind Guardian]

Good job Greenie and Legate!

And the Beast Hunter for ignoring Nilp who I now think is a Wolf. NO wait, I'm confused...

Yeah no that works.

Nilp may not have been able to protect himself (if he is the BH), but he did kill a Wolf.

[Loslote]

So Greenie, you dreamed Nilp, Rikae, and Shasta innocent, right? Who was your dream last Night?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Good job Greenie and Legate!

And the Beast Hunter for ignoring Nilp who I now think is a Wolf. NO wait, I'm confused...

Nilp claimed he WAS the BH, and soft asked for the Ranger to protect him. His trap was always going on someone else. If Huin correct interpreted Greenie's list yesterDay, Nilp is probably one of our three known innocents.

[Formendacil]

Welcome to the Halls of Cassandra, Greenie.

I guess welcome, Legate? The protocol on welcoming the evil beasts that prematurely ended our Lives is yet to be established.

Perhaps death has cured you of your Curse and you shall now offer us all the information you can.

You know, to keep things sporting. The poor Innocent side hasn't had a lot of breaks yet.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Nilp claimed he WAS the BH, and soft asked for the Ranger to protect him. His trap was always going on someone else. If Huin correct interpreted Greenie's list yesterDay, Nilp is probably one of our three known innocents.

Yeah that makes sense. This game is making my head hurt. (And my stomach - it's lunch time and I'm not eating yet!)

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So Greenie, you dreamed Nilp, Rikae, and Shasta innocent, right? Who was your dream last Night?

I'm pretty sure the Wolves thought it would be Legate, or why sacrifice him and not the NW?

Hi, Greenie! I really hope the remaining innocents spot/spotted your list post... That way we might stand a chance.

And hi, Legate! Don't worry, we're all friends here. Though if you feel like telling us who the rest of the pack are, that'd be grand.

hS

[Loslote]

Is Legate the NW? The wolves get to choose who gets caught in the trap, right? I'd assume they'd pick the NW.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Is Legate the NW? The wolves get to choose who gets caught in the trap, right? I'd assume they'd pick the NW.

Wait, that's right, we'd know if he was the NW! Why didn't they pick the NW???

[Boromir88]

And with 7 dead. A vote of 4 needs to be achieved to choose a medium.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Wait, that's right, we'd know if he was the NW! Why didn't they pick the NW???

The narration says there are 3 wolves (1 NW) left, so yeah, pretty sure he's not.

I think Greenie said she wanted to get a better READ on Legate. Or maybe it's just that she voted him.

[Huinesoron]

(Psst, Boro, you've got a cut-off line in the narration. Second paragraph, starts with 'iddle'.)

hS

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I mean, I had Greenie pegged as a gifted, but I assumed ranger. Apparently the wolves noticed something I didn't.

........why would Sally think Greenie was the Ranger? Her Legate vote yesterDay looked pretty Seerish to me. I don't know that I believe this.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lottie

So Greenie, you dreamed Nilp, Rikae, and Shasta innocent, right? Who was your dream last Night?

Echoing the very same question - though suspecting she's sleeping right now and we'll have to wait for the morning here in Finland.

But one wolf down basically buys one more Day. So good.

Although we (sic!) could have done this lynching Legate already on D2.


This more or less confirms Nilp is an innocent (unless we read Greenie wrongly) and thus it only remains a question whether Nilp just pulled this all off as just a normal villager, or was he actually the BH who made this nice trap?

[Loslote]

If I'm right about who Greenie dreamed and that Kath and Mac are Legate's packmates, then there's one wolf and one cobbler among:

Sally
Brinn
Pitch
Lommy

Although actually, I think the Seer sees the cobbler as an ordo, so the cobbler doesn't HAVE to be among these people. But at least one of them, more if I'm wrong about Kath and Mac, is definitely a wolf.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Sally

I mean, I had Greenie pegged as a gifted, but I assumed ranger. Apparently the wolves noticed something I didn't.

Pleeeeease go back and read Greenie's posts, people! The list post is absolutely perfect and tells you everything (if, you know, I'm right).

Originally Posted by Sally

And nicely done, my beloved! I'm proud of you! Now do it again tomorrow and we're halfway there!

?...? Any idea who she's talking to? The Beast Hunter is one-shot, so the only possible candidate is... well, the Mod!

hS

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

(Psst, Boro, you've got a cut-off line in the narration. Second paragraph, starts with 'iddle'.)

hS

Oh thanks...fixed it. As I was writing everything, the entire time I was just thinking how do I describe a rube-goldberg machine? I'm not a writer and miss when Fea would write the narrations for me.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

?...? Any idea who she's talking to? The Beast Hunter is one-shot, so the only possible candidate is... well, the Mod!

hS

My guess is, she doesn't realize the BH is a one hit wonder.

[Loslote]

Also, Mac and Sally have not started talking about "who pushed the lynch away from Legate yesterDay" OR "who did Greenie dream?", and I think any innocent NEEDS to ask those questions asap toDay. I'm already very susicious of Mac, and I'm starting to think Sally might be a wolf or the cobbler.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also we're obviously not discussing the game in our apartment but you guys should have heard Legate's hysterical maniacal laughter when he just opened the thread.

So the wolf is around! Hi Legate, VERY glad to see you here.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So the wolf is around! Hi Legate, VERY glad to see you here.

Don't be shy! Just walk right in. We don't bite, but offer you a glass of wine and wait until you're ready to tell, how it feels.

[Huinesoron]

This was Greenie's Seer-post in my mind, and I misremembered: she said she intended to 'read through' Lommy, not Legate. So we may actually have a confirmed second wolf; I certainly hope so! It was indeed Nilp, Rikae, and Shasta innocent.

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

And considering that Form was the medium, I dare not imagine the amount of harsh language the dead aimed at the living yesterDay.

Well, he's not wrong...

Don't worry, Legate-wolf. Nienna* been reading along the whole game and was teasing me about the Dead thread for 48 hours, at least, so I understand in-home betrayal.




*Nienna for the newer Downers (you know, anyone with less than, like, 8 years as a Downer) is Mrs. Formendacil, once a WWer, always a WW-lurker.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mac

We have to agree for some kind of mode for Greenie to send us her knowledge.

Originally Posted by Lommy

AND we should figure out how to communicate with Greenie in the dead thread.

So it starts again...

Why don't they learn that is not going to work? It's just a waste of time they'd need to put in reading Greenie's posts to find what hS did so nicely.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So the wolf is around! Hi Legate, VERY glad to see you here.

Hello! And thank you for the very warm welcome and cooomfy chairs. Just here to say a quick hi, since I'm about to go to sleep - which means you'll have to wait with your questions for the morning. (As will I have to wait for rereading your, I am sure, very interesting discussions here.)

If you want to point for my convenience (and Greenie's) some of the highlights of this thread, feel free to do so, it would be most welcome for us newcomers, I am sure!

I also am sure there's a lot I could discuss with each of you, but that all also has to wait. So, enjoy your guessing for several more hours, before I have time to respond all your questions in absolutely truthful and honest manner.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

*Nienna for the newer Downers (you know, anyone with less than, like, 8 years as a Downer) is Mrs. Formendacil, once a WWer, always a WW-lurker.

Send Nienna my best regards! (Well if you read this yourself anyway, all the best for the odd summer ahead!)

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So it starts again...

Why don't they learn that is not going to work? It's just a waste of time they'd need to put in reading Greenie's posts to find what hS did so nicely.

Well, if Lottie is right and I'm reading Greenie right, both of those quotes are from wolves...

Edit: Greenie and the narration, rather, since the latter is what says she saw a wolf.

hS

[Loslote]

Well, we spent all of yesterDay yelling that You, Mac, and Kath were packmates steering the lynch Form's direction, and throwing up our hands when the village just calmly went right along with it. Also, we did empower Brinn at least partially as a throwback.