WWJ IV: Let the insanity ensue

[Firefoot]

Actually, I take back what I said about trying to do one of those analyses about Nogrod right now. I want to have time to do it right, and he currently has 42 posts - many of them long. I would like to take a closer look but I think it will wait until tomorrow. If I die tonight... well, you know where I was headed. Someone else will have to look it all up.

I think a reread of both Nogrod's and Roa's recent posts will serve me better right now. Going into it I am still feeling that Roa is innocent but I will try to read objectively. I'll let you know what I find.

[Nogrod]

Just to inform you all of my doubts so far. Read and think. I myself will be sticking to Roa for a vote tonight.

Roa is a werewolf. My open accusations against her weren’t any fool-proof to begin with, but she meddled everything herself by defending very poorly, making mistakes in almost every post and slipping all the time. Of her guilt I’m positive. Believe me.

My suspicions against Firefoot

1) At early on the game, she was propably even too eager to be at good terms with Folwren – who she had had to know to be a good player (and if she were a wolf, also innocent). And she managed the first day, and liked to point out her being along the same lines with Folwren. After Folwren was killed, she would be seen as her friend, not as her killer.
2) Lining up heavily with Roa, who is a wolf. Just check the posts of this morning and day. She may say, that it would be stupid for wolves to help one another. But it would be very cunning to just actually do it, and then claim innocense on the basis that it would be stupid to act like that, especially when they would really gain on that co-operation! And it’s not a small gain they would reach with this co-op., for these wolves know the situation. And I do fear, that most of us villagers don’t see it!!! With active posting, it is 4 villagers against 3 wolves now. And if Jenny stays away because of the RL, it could be 3-3! They can afford even to reveal themselves, if just today’s vote will lynch an innocent! After next night, the situation would be 3-2 (Jenny being counted again), for the wolves + two sleeping villagers, which both would be needed actively coming in the next day. That I think we can all doubt. The wolves know this. (Anyone believing that Gandalf will really read all that has happened after his last visit, and then be defending the village with a grand effort?)
3) Being as clever and great player as she is, I just can’t believe her not seeing the downfall of Roa during the day. Roa clearly made mistakes the whole day, and kind of underlined my open accusations. If Firefoot would be an ordo, she would have changed her mind to clear facts opening before her eyes. There seems to be other motives behind...
4) Take Firefoot’s message #201 and read it carefully, in the light of the overall situation. Quite wolfish to me. Even pre-seeing my point on 3.

Anyhow: I don’t exactly know, that Firefoot is a wolf. There is a chance, that she is well meaning villager, but one that has consistently been able to ignore the right hints, and has had a totally misinformed interpretation of the overall situation. But I would still stress the case 3 above.

My suspicions against Mithalwen

1) At the early stages some gut-based uncomfortabliness, not more. Not much to go after anyhow. Although I wondered for a second or two last night whether I should vote for her before she voted anyone. Wasn’t so sure about the sanity of such a “random-action”, and we played as we played.
2) Being at Firefoot’s list of probably innocent people brought her to my mind again (see up: Firefoot, case 2).
3) Her clear abstinence today – that was broken only after I made a slight provocation against her to see, whether she would react or not.
4) The rest you can read from the evening’s posts.

I’m very anxious about Mith. There is something, but I’m not sure.

My suspicions against Valier

1) Read the posts of Roa and Firefoot and Mith. You can interpret this unanimity either way. Maybe they have good grounds to suspect her, maybe they show a sign of wolves bandwagoning... You must read it yourselves.
2) A bit weird behaviour, sure. Generates suspicion, but nothing of more value up to this point.

I don’t know about her.

[Valier]

You could be right Nogrod about Firefoot, But I think she could be the lead wolf for reasons I stated before. You want us to trust you that Roa is a wolf, I agree with alot of your points but I don't know if I feel "safe" going with you on that. I will probably vote for Firefoot unless something more substantial comes up before the vote deadline.


P.S I wonder how many no votes we will have today.

[Mithalwen]

Well Nogrod, we can't all be wolves so you have to be wrong about at least one of us.... and if abstinence means I didn't say how high when you asked me to jump without looking, well so be it.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Valier

I will probably vote for Firefoot unless something more substantial comes up before the vote deadline.

I do share your concern about Firefoot, but I am not so certain about her guilt as to vote her on the knowledge I have right now.

Read the discussion between me and Roa from earlier and think again, who's the obvious one.

We have time to look at Firefoot tomorrow - if I'm still alive by then. (Most probably not. But read my earlier messages the better then.)

[Mithalwen]

Firefoot has evaluated Jenny, but can we really just ignore Eonwe and Gandalf?

There is a possibility that we are all innocents picking on each other..... unlikely since Jenny seems more hapless beginner than hapless wolf..... but theoretically possible.

[Firefoot]

I'm not done with my reading yet so I'm not going to comment on that. Nogrod... you're suspicions of me seem rather far-fetched to me. I honestly don't see what's wolvish about my post 201. Another thing... I've never played werewolf with Folwren before - ever. I've never even read along with any games she's played in - a similar statement that I can make about most of the players in this game. Mithalwen is the only one I know for sure that I have played with. I had pretty open opinions coming into this game. When I had to be absent for most the discussion on Day 1, I was able to look at that as a whole, and Folwren's arguments made a lot of sense to me. You can say that I'm just saying that but it's true.

I'm not lining up with Roa. She has seemed to be making more sense to me than you. I have agreed to go back and read both of your arguments objectively, and you call that post wolvish.

Your suspicions against Mithalwen seem extremely flimsy to me as well.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Well Nogrod, we can't all be wolves so you have to be wrong about at least one of us.... and if abstinence means I didn't say how high when you asked me to jump without looking, well so be it.

Surely. I said, I am positive about Roa. Heavily suspicious about Firefoot and having concern & doubts about you and Valier. There is room for mistakes. I have admitted that there already. Even my maths are not so bad as to take four as three...

[Mithalwen]

Obviously not an accountant ...there is only one accountancy joke...

Q What is 2+2?

A What do you want it to be?

[Nogrod]

Firefoot.

Whatever you are saying, you are still defending both Roa and Mith. Added to that Mith's ever increasing suspiciousness, is telling me quite enough.

And don't try that "it would be stupid to guard one another as wolves". The wolves really can afford it now. Especially as there seems to be no traces of Jenny, Eonwe or Gandalf to participate. It's your field now. And one can see it from your boldness.

[Valier]

Does the day still end in 10 minutes?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Firefoot has evaluated Jenny, but can we really just ignore Eonwe and Gandalf?

There is a possibility that we are all innocents picking on each other..... unlikely since Jenny seems more hapless beginner than hapless wolf..... but theoretically possible.

Before you ask, why I say you seem to be ever more suspicious, let me answer with this quote.

Time is drawing near, and you want to start idle speculations from days ago. Do you come up with a real accusation against those silent ones.

Remember: we can't afford guessing this day!

[Mithalwen]

Do we know about the deadline...otherwise we should really vote now?

[Firefoot]

Okay, call me inept but I honestly do not see Roa as terribly suspicious. The biggest impression that I have gotten from reading the conversation as a whole is that Nogrod seems determined to paint Roa as a wolf. I still am not sure whether Nogrod is innocent or guilty. Certainly I won't be voting for him toDay, but I will be looking into it. If the villagers didn't have so much to lose right now, I would say that we could learn a lot by his death whether he was innocent or guilty. Okay, more if he was guilty.

Sorry I have to cut it a little short, but I have to go in about 20 minutes. Unless I am persuaded otherwise by then, my vote will probably go to Valier.

[Eonwe]

I'm here, or just got here, and am in the process of writing a brief and very unhelpful post...sorry...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Valier

Does the day still end in 10 minutes?

I don't know. I PM'd Kitanna, but she hasn't answered anywhere.

I think we can argue with her, if she tries to stop this in 7 minutes...

[Mithalwen]

Well I am finding you less trustworthy and I do trust Firefoot.... and actually I don't know... I also find you very manipulative and the more I am told to do something the more I dig in my heels... you want me to vote but despite your confidence so early you haven't.....

[Kitanna]

I was going to stop the Day, but I won't stop it for another hour.

[Eonwe]

Do we seriously only have one vote?

I'm back, and not altogether happy. Ranger and Hunter killed. 6-3, as the score stands. But we are not altogether without hope: the seer has a couple konwn innocents (four, I believe). It could be time for you to do a bit of serious thinking. We do have a bit of time, though we'd best get cracking...

I haven't read the half of it, and as I only have ten minutes, I will not be able to.

Impressions

Nogrod is playing in a very aggressive manner. He is either in very close alliance with another loud villager (wolf), or is putting the village's good before his own in a very courageous manner.

Jenny is still not cleared by me. Though she doesn't seem to have made an appearance yet.

Firefoot has put up a good showing for herself. There should be allot to sift through tomarrow.

I'm really sorry, but I can't really do or say anything, as I have no idea what is going on.

Other than that, I'm not too surpised at Sleepy's or Folwren's deaths.

God save our seer.

EDIT: Well that is nice of you Kitanna. I was going to vote Jenny, but will hold off on that for now, until I can collect my thoughts...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Sorry I have to cut it a little short, but I have to go in about 20 minutes. Unless I am persuaded otherwise by then, my vote will probably go to Valier.

There you see, what I predicted. Wolves bandwagoning for Valier to help Roa from trouble. Do not take Firefoot's word for Roa's problems, see them yourselves! And compare to Valier's possible suspiciousness. Which one holds better?

[Firefoot]

I also find you very manipulative and the more I am told to do something the more I dig in my heels... you want me to vote but despite your confidence so early you haven't.....

I agree.

Thanks, Kitanna.

This is going to be a tense vote. I wish I could be around for its end...

[Valier]

Eonwe I do not think you should so quickly come on and say you will vote for Jenny this doesn't help us at all right now!

[Firefoot]

There you see, what I predicted. Wolves bandwagoning for Valier to help Roa from trouble.

What?? I was the first person to bring serious accusation against Valier, but now you say that I'm bandwagoning by following my strongest suspicion - a suspicion that was, in fact, mine? Just because Roa voted first doesn't mean I'm bandwagoning.

Nogrod, you're starting to frustrate me.

[Eonwe]

sigh....

I had but ten minutes to read and analyze. Don't tell me I was being hasty. Of course I was.

[Elu Ancalime]

I hope not (X post=Valier) Im too afraid to be the first to cast a vote....

Wow Nogrod! Um, I guess I dont seem suspiscous to you...well....thats cool with me obviously. I guess I havent said enough. Actually, I kinda respect you more now, because you seem to have a very well thought out thesis, and no one person is specifically brought out more than the others too much. Of course, then they would be on the same level if they were all one-liner suspicons. Also, I am a little skeptical about what you think of Firefoot. I will double-check and see if I can find continuity with it......and Roa too, hmm? Well, now I have no idea who I want to vote for. My trust is split between Firefoot and Nogrod. The next vote will probably influence me in some way (not meaning i will agree with it though...)

Basically i like everything Norod said except the stuff about Firefoot...

, but can we really just ignore Eonwe and Gandalf?

Emphasis mine.


No! Today is quite crucial. We both need a vote from them if possible and also some short evaluation, think about it: What if all this squabbeling today is between a bunch of Villagers who are paranoid? We might as well take a quick look at them before the End.
________
Montana Marijuana Dispensaries

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Nogrod, you're starting to frustrate me.

That's all I'm up to here right now...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Before you ask, why I say you seem to be ever more suspicious, let me answer with this quote.

Time is drawing near, and you want to start idle speculations from days ago. Do you come up with a real accusation against those silent ones.

Remember: we can't afford guessing this day!

I tried to do this when I FIRST ARRIVED several hours ago but SOMEONE wasn't very keen on that were they..... I mean why were you so discouraging about me wanting to review everything.? You only started to accuse me when it became clear I wasn't going to play ball and automatically vote for your choice. Hypocrisy is a word that springs to mind or maybe two words...bold wolf...

[Nogrod]

There is almost an hour left. So consider carefully.

I am your seer.

I'll elaborate just in a minute.

But Roa is a Wolf. I've seen a dream about her, the very first night.

[Firefoot]

I am your seer.

I'm not surprised. I was starting to wonder about that (your certainty of Roa, constant fear of your imminent death - oh, yeah, that's a seer feeling. Speaking from experience...); it's the reason I haven't been planning to vote for you. I almost wish you hadn't been so explicit, because I now have no doubt that you will die tonight, but perhaps it will help. But yes, please do be more detailed now that you've said it.

[Eonwe]

Indeed. My words to the seer were mostly with you in mind Nogrod. Though of course i want your other known innocents...

[Nogrod]

The very first night I saw that Roa is a wolf. Pure luck! The only luck our village has had so far.

The second night I found out about Folwren (kind of suspected him over the case where he and Roa defended Eonwe).

The third night I ran to an innocent villager, whose name I won’t be revealing, because he/she would be wolf-fodder after me.

If you have thought me weird or overtly aggressive in pursuing Roa, now you understand my reasons. I have counted, that we have a fair chance against these WW’s, if we all stick together now, not later. Good to see you back Elu and Eonwe. You came at the last minute.

After Roa’s guilt presupposed, you will be seeing this days discussion in a new light.

[Eonwe]

No, no you must tell us the identity of the known innocent. It doens't matter that they die. An innocnet is always going to die, and we might was well cross him/her off the list now, and narrow our scope.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

After Roa’s guilt presupposed, you will be seeing this night’s discussion in a new light.

You villagers really should use tomorrow (RL) reading today's discussion. I won't be there to share it with you. But you can do it now as the first wolf is cleared.

++Roa

[Firefoot]

Nogrod, I hope you have good reasons for not revealing the name of the other innocent you dreamed about, because we're going to be losing innocent villagers anyway and it's not like any of them are gifted. But if we were to lynch that innocent villager tomorrow, that would be something of a waste.

I'm not saying you should necessarily give their name, but please have some other reason than just because they will be killed by the wolves if you do.

And if you're not actually the seer... I guess we'll know tomorrow, won't we? (You can't expect me to take anything at face value... sorry... )

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

No, no you must tell us the identity of the known innocent. It doens't matter that they die. An innocnet is always going to die, and we might was well cross him/her off the list now, and narrow our scope.

Well you asked it yourself. I really had to ponder this one: there are pros and cons here...

You are the innocent villager Eonwe. Try to stay alive during the nights to come...
= you will be next, I suppose.

[Firefoot]

There seems to be nothing for it, then. I will presumably see you all on the morrow.

++Roa

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

And if you're not actually the seer... I guess we'll know tomorrow, won't we? (You can't expect me to take anything at face value... sorry... )

You shall see it sooner than many here can think...

[Eonwe]

That is how I would want it, thanks! Bring it wolves!

This just lets everyone cross me off their list, narrowing the contestents to somewhere around four or five. Which is not [i]so[/b] bad.

[Nogrod]

Courage my friends!

After the next night there will be 2 WW's and 4 active villagers (+Gandalf). And a wealth of discussion to consider from today.

You have the chance now!

I do trust my battle today was not in vain!

[Valier]

I was sure you were the Seer Nogrod! Well I hope against all hopes that they don't kill you (fat chance I know!)

++Roa

Hope more comes out of this day tomorrow. It's good to know your an Ordo Eonwe....For I am as well and we should work together to find the remaining Wolves! I know I'm not officially declared innocent but I asure you I am!