Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I tend to agree with this. The Wolves got lucky. And the Bear was probably trying to kill a Wolf and picked the wrong person (which would tend to point towards Kath). If s/he wasn't then s/he should have been, and certainly should now.

I thought it might be Kath... but I think we'd do better to try rounding up the wolves first, since the bear is so hard to detect and we can't afford another mistake right now.

That statement no more clears Glirdan than does the fact that morm, Cailin and I thought him innocent but easily swayed. I very much doubt that the phantom dreamed of Glirdan. And I, for one, am beginning to think that this "agreeing with everyone" thing is more of an act than it at first appeared.

I still had hopes for him to be innocent... But it is rather strange. If he's a wolf, he'd have known Alca to be innocent. He also knew - had he read all posts - he'd move, together with Azaelia, right to the top of the suspects list should Alcarillo prove to be innocent. I still think he might very possibly be a wolf, but I find it unlikely he and Azaelia are both wolves. I'm waiting to hear (more) from both till I decide - Glirdan's only post today seems a tad over the top.

It may be too early to start voting (unless, like Nilp, you are unlikely to be around later), but it's never too early to start accusing. The more everyone's thoughts are shared as the Day progresses, the better shape we will be in when the time comes to vote.

I meant accusing as in deciding who to vote for ^^ You are right, of course.

[Kath]

I tend to agree with this. The Wolves got lucky. And the Bear was probably trying to kill a Wolf and picked the wrong person (which would tend to point towards Kath). If s/he wasn't then s/he should have been, and certainly should now.

Er, what? I'm a little confused. Are you saying that I'm the Bear or that I was supposed to be killed. If the former then why on earth would I kill morm after going after him all day! Trust me, I'm not that brave!

Sorry, no time to analyse right now. I'll come back and take a proper look later.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I thought it might be Kath... but I think we'd do better to try rounding up the wolves first, since the bear is so hard to detect and we can't afford another mistake right now.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by Cailín

I still think he [Glirdan] might very possibly be a wolf, but I find it unlikely he and Azaelia are both wolves.

It is quite possible that two Wolves have voted for both of the innocent lynchees. Neither were instrumental in instigating the lynchings, so it's quite possible that they thought others would be suspected above them. I am certainly coming round to the conclusion that one of them at least is a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Kath

Are you saying that I'm the Bear or that I was supposed to be killed.

I am saying that you might be the Bear on the basis that you suspected mormegil to be a Wolf. And the fact that you openly voiced strong accusations of mormegil does not excuse you entirely. It could be a double-bluff.

But, like Cailín, I am more concerned with finding the Wolves at the moment.

[Holbytlass]

The person I am fairly certain of their innocent is Glirdan despite his crazy posting, but then I was certain of Wilwarin being suspicious. But more has come to light and I need to analyze more, which is a long and painful task for me.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holby

The person I am fairly certain of their innocent is Glirdan ...

What on earth makes you certain of his innocence?

[Folwren]

I've been thinking a lot since I last talked. I have been suspicious of Kath of late, as you'll note from my talking yesterDAY. But with Morm dead last night, and her having said what she did about not wanting to be linked with him when he was lynched and found to be something bad, I somehow came to the conclusion that she probably wasn't guilty of his death. I'm not saying that she's not a werewolf, but I somehow doubt that she's the Bear.

In the game up till now, I have only accused three people directly - Meneltarmacil (in my first post and rather flippantly), Alcarillo (poor chap), and Kath. But the wheels in my head have been turning since dawn today (well, in real life, since evening last night) and though I don't have time to back up my accusations and though I also am not completely founded on all of them, I'll list out who I think now worthy of scrutiny:

Meneltarmacil
Kath
Azaelia of Willowbottom and
Glirdan

Meneltarmacil may only be from personal dislike of being attacked by him not only once, but now twice, but I think he suspectible, if not guilty.

Kath is, as I said, probably not guilty of Morm's death, but she may be of the Phantoms.

And that's all I've got to say for now. I will not be back until sometime later today.

-- Folwren

By the by, this list is not in order from most suspected to least so. It is actually in no particular order at all.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Folwren

Meneltarmacil may only be from personal dislike of being attacked by him not only once, but now twice, but I think he suspectible, if not guilty.

If we all just suspect people who suspect us, we'll get nowhere. Come on, you need to come up with better evidence than that!

Originally Posted by Folwren

Kath is, as I said, probably not guilty of Morm's death, but she may be of the Phantoms.

Reasons, dear Folwren. We need reasons. How can we assess whether you might be hot or cold if you don't give your reasoning?

Originally Posted by Folwren

Azaelia of Willowbottom and
Glirdan

Ditto.

Really folks, you might as well not contribute if you're not going to try to provide some kind of insight into our dilemma.

I don't have to stay here you know. There are perfectly good mushroom crops elsewhere for me to harvest.

*Rant ends*

Sorry, Folwren. It's not just you. You just happened to be the straw that broke the camel's back.

[Kath]

I am saying that you might be the Bear on the basis that you suspected mormegil to be a Wolf. And the fact that you openly voiced strong accusations of mormegil does not excuse you entirely. It could be a double-bluff.

I see. Well all I can say to that is I am not clever enough to carry it out nor brave enough to attempt it! If I were the Bear and had tried that I strongly suspect that I would be dead by now!

Now, as to other people;
Folwren - I must say she confuses me. She went after me yesterday for accepting morm's cross posting defence, then backtracked on that and went for a new tack, accusing me of the phantoms death instead, with no real reason. Is she going to expand on that at all? And then we have this quote from her;

If I am killed, I will be one more good person dead and I will be leaving no trails to help you find who the evil are.

As I recall very few people have been suspicious of Folwren so it seems odd for her to give a defence just out of the blue like that. To be honest I am not sure that she is guilty, she could just be a little confused or freaked out by all the accusing going on, but I'd like to hear some explanations from her quite soon.

Shelob - We haven't really heard much from her but what she has said has been quite helpful. That comment about the wolves killing one of a pair of adversaries is a good one. Are they trying to frame the survivor or are they playing a clever double bluff?

Holbytlass - Well she is another with no reasons for her suspicions but she has said that she'll be back later with more information so I'll wait for her.

Meneltarmacil - I suspect of wolvery for reasons that I have explained before. Unless things change majorly today and he manages to avert my suspicions he will be the recipient of my vote again.

WaynetheGoblin - Hasn't been as talkative as he was on the first day. Is this because he has learnt his lesson about slips of the tongue? And if so is he keeping quiet because he is a wolf and now wants to avoid suspicion of any kind? I'd like to see some posts from him today.

wilwarin538 - It seems now that she saved two innocents from the noose the other day though this could be a way of avoiding suspicion. Still, I have to say that I don't suspect her.

Durelin - Another person with an out of the blue insistence on innocence;

All I can say is, I am innocent, and completely useless. Chances are I will be killed by the wolves or the bear, being the quiet and pointless one.

Actually looking at that it is incredibly similar to Folwren's declaration of ord status. Is it possible that these two are wolves working together? If they consulted each other to find a way to avoid suspicion then this similarity might be explained.

Saucepan Man - Well, what am I supposed to think! He is about the only really loud person left (except for Nilp who we know to be innocent) and being an obvious and important presence in the village is often a wolvish strategy. And yet I find myself unable to suspect him. the phantom we now know was the Seer and he stated that Saucepan Pan was not on his list of suspects. Now it seems unlikely that such a person would just believe in innocence and so I'm guessing that he dreamed of SpM and found him innocent. So Saucy, no suspicion here.

Kath - Not a bear, not a wolf. But then I would say that!

Azaelia of Willowbottom - I was accused yesterday for not finding her suspicious. Today I have heard nothing from her and would like to wait for something at least before deciding whether to join this particular bandwagon or remain thinking of her as an innocent.

Cailín - Another one who thinks I am the Bear;

If the bear decided to stick to the phantom's plan, it's probably Kath - the only one really suspicious of morm. However, we cannot be sure of that.

This I suppose is a fair comment, except that if I was the Bear and following the phantom's plan in this way I would surely have killed Meneltarmacil the night before having been suspicious of him all day.

Nilpaurion Felagund - Claims to be the second Shirriff and has not been contested so I think we'll have to take that as being the truth. Therefore beyond suspicion.

Gil-Galad - We have heard nothing from him yet today so again I will wait.

Glirdan - Has certainly taken a beating today, and I can't say that I disagree. His little speech this morning was incredibly over the top, but then I thought SamwiseGamgee's defence was too much and he turned out to be innocent. Just a couple of things that he said caught my eye;

Unless the wolves chose randomly, yet that seems highly unlikely

Why? If they didn't know who the Seer was and had no real idea as to who anyone was then all they could really have done was choose randomly. Also, as Shelob said, killing the phantom could have been a way to try and set up the Saucepan Man, who by default I have to think of as innocent, so we would lynch an innocent today. Therefore we have a reason for the wolves to have chosen him. Also;

And the bear! His first victim was (not counting Shelob's poor llama) Kitanna who happened to be the cobbler! And now he got a shiriff!? Coincidence? once again, I think not.

Has he misunderstood? It is a good thing that the Bear killed Kitanna, the Cobbler is an enemy of the village.
He is another one that confuses me in that some of his comments could be easily misconstrued, like Wayne's before, but it seems only right to give him the benefit of the doubt to explain himself so I'll wait for another post. If one is not forthcoming then he'll have to go on my suspect list, which as of now reads like this:

Meneltarmacil
Folwren
Durelin

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kath

He is about the only really loud person left (except for Nilp who we know to be innocent) ...

You might want to add yourself to that category now, Kath. Good thoughts. Just the sort of thing we need around here at the moment.

[The Saucepan Man]

Since Kath remains highly suspicious of him, some further thoughts on Meneltarmacil.

When he voted yesterday, the votes then cast stood as follows:

Alcarillo - 6
Azaelia - 2
Wilwarin - 1
Menel - 3

At that stage, there were still (as far as he knew) four votes left to be cast (after his).

He voted for Azaelia.

That is useful in two respects:

1. It tells us that, if Azaelia is a Wolf, Menel almost certainly is not. His vote increased her chances of being lynched instead of Alcarillo. It's a risk that a Wolf would be unwilling to take.

2. It also tells us that Menel is unlikely to be a beast of any description. He was in danger of being lynched himself, something that each of our furry fiends want to avoid at all costs (moreso than an ordinary villager). To reduce that risk, his best option would have been to vote for Alcarillo and put him further ahead. Yet he did not do so. He voted for Azaelia, bringing her level with him. That seems a very non-Lycanthropic vote to me.

Neither proposition is certain, since Menel could be playing it outrageously boldly, or he might have thought that a vote for Alcarillo would look too suspicious.

Any thoughts?

[Folwren]

NOOO!!!!!!! Pages and pages worth of typing GONE!

Okay, sorry folks. I really seriously honestly did have over a page's worth of writing here on my reason and defense. Then the blasted computer malfunctioned and I lost it all in a single swipe. Well, that's the last time I type such serious stuff here on the internet.

After I eat lunch, I'll come back and retype, if I can, all that I just lost. Please forgive me. I promise I will be back, Saucepan Man, with proper back up to my accusations. (Well, as proper as I can scrape up.)

- Folwren

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Kath

I see. Well all I can say to that is I am not clever enough to carry it out nor brave enough to attempt it! If I were the Bear and had tried that I strongly suspect that I would be dead by now!

The funny thing is, you would not be. Nobody's going after the bear today and I don't think you are a real wolf-lynching candidate either. I'm not saying that you really are the bear, because, honestly, I have absolutely no clue as to who the bear is.

Folwren - I must say she confuses me. (...) To be honest I am not sure that she is guilty, she could just be a little confused or freaked out by all the accusing going on, but I'd like to hear some explanations from her quite soon.

Agreed. Her contributions haven't really been helpful up till now, but they were enough to make me not suspect her. She voted Alca yesterday, following the phantom's plan to clear things up a little, yet accuses the exact same people she accused from day one - without solid reasoning.

Shelob - We haven't really heard much from her but what she has said has been quite helpful. That comment about the wolves killing one of a pair of adversaries is a good one. Are they trying to frame the survivor or are they playing a clever double bluff?

SpM and the phantom clearly seemed allies in this game - at least to me. Sure, they did argue, but rather to edge on the rest of us (and possibly to amuse themselves a little). It was quite evident the phantom never suspected SpM and SpM was just a little on guard. So trying to frame the survivor seems incredibly far-fetched. Nobody's suspecting SpM anymore than yesterday. If it's a clever double bluff and The Saucepan Man is, in fact, a wolf, someone save us...?

---

What catches my eye the most is that both the wolves and the bear are killing as much experienced players as possible. Being a newbie myself, I am (or at least am considered) easily manipulated and easy to fool. TGWBS, Kitanna, Morm, the phantom all were experienced players. Without these people - who were also regular contributors - the village will become a lot easier to infiltrate by the werecreatures. I'm still suspicious of others I consider very experienced who are saying too little to be accused, like Shelob and Holbytlass.

Now I'm hoping the bear might still be on our side for now. But tis funny that the bear should choose to kill Mormegil rather than Glirdan or Azaelia who seem to be the main suspects today. So I think with the bear we should be looking at someone who does not agree with the public opinion - or someone far too clever for their own good.

We have fourteen people left, three are wolves. Two out of 14 are known innocents, at least for me ^^. The people under the most suspicion right now are Glirdan, Azaelia and Meneltarmacil. Now, do we honestly believe these three are our wolves, or would that just be too easy?

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I'd say we're dealing with some rather intelligent werebeasts here, finding the Seer this early on.

I notice that Azaelia's vote did put Bergil in the majority when the deadline was close and both he and Glirdan were about to be lynched. She does seem a little wolfish to me, but I think her defense of herself makes sense as well and therefore I'm going to reserve judgement for now.

Glirdan, though, seems to have changed his mind on a lot of things and several people voted for him yesterDay. I think he may be up to something.

Is Meneltarmacil really flattering himself here? When I'm looking through his posts I really find nothing suspicious there. Only perhaps that he voted Azaelia, and at a crucial time too, while feeling so strongly about Glirdan earlier. It makes a Glirdan - Azaelia - Menel team very unlikely. Kath, I may have missed something here, I apologize - but why exactly do you find Menel so suspicious? His voting behavior - as SpM rightly points out - has not been so strange either. Only if Azaelia is not a wolf, Menel just may be one.

Right now, I think Glirdan is the most suspicious in his behavior. Azaelia has a similar record, but I find that her defense is just slightly better. It seems that on Day 1, she prevented a doublelynching by making a desperate last minute vote and day two, she was just unlucky, jumping on the wrong bandwagon. I'm not saying she's innocent, I'm still wary about her, but I'm inclined to vote Glirdan tonight.

---

I'm not feeling at my most helpful-ishness either and I have this strong, bad feeling that once we know who the wolves are, I'm going to pull my hair out of frustration. *sniff* I mean, what do I know? I'm just the girl who crochets scarves, you know.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by SPM

What on earth makes you certain of his innocence?

I said fairly certain, because of what THE PHANTOM said to you about re-reading the posts of your main suspects and one of them should be moved higher or lower on the list. So I looked back and something Glirdan said jumped out at me, so that's why.

[Shelob]

Originally Posted by Cailín

SpM and the phantom clearly seemed allies in this game - at least to me. Sure, they did argue, but rather to edge on the rest of us (and possibly to amuse themselves a little). It was quite evident the phantom never suspected SpM and SpM was just a little on guard. So trying to frame the survivor seems incredibly far-fetched. Nobody's suspecting SpM anymore than yesterday. If it's a clever double bluff and The Saucepan Man is, in fact, a wolf, someone save us...?

As Kath pointed out Phantom did tend to suggest that SPM is innocent. Given that he was the seer I don't think we're wrong to assume that SPM is therefore innocent.

Originally Posted by SPM

2. It also tells us that Menel is unlikely to be a beast of any description. He was in danger of being lynched himself, something that each of our furry fiends want to avoid at all costs (moreso than an ordinary villager). To reduce that risk, his best option would have been to vote for Alcarillo and put him further ahead. Yet he did not do so. He voted for Azaelia, bringing her level with him. That seems a very non-Lycanthropic vote to me

.

True, but with some holes. If Menel is a werewolf he probably would have looked at the votes (6-Alcarillo, 3-Menel) and reacted in the way one expected, by voting for Alcarillo. Self Preservation would dictate that he do that, and he would have not only the self-preservation of himself to think of but the self preservation of his fellow wolves as well. Now if Menel were the Bear self preservation would have dictated the same thing, but since it would be self preservation solely of himself it might demand he put more thought into it, it wouldn't be as much a gut-reaction as for the wolves. Even with the remaining votes the Alcarillo Bandwagon was started and it was pretty unlikely all the people who hadn't voted would and that they would all vote for Menel. At that point he could have realized that a vote for Alcarillo would make him look like he was trying to save himself while a vote for someone else (even if it placed someone else in his same position, thus opening them up to take the lead) would look the next DAY like he was an innocent. So non-Lycanthropic yes, but non-wolf should not mean non-were.

Since I'm still in school I haven't been able to go over it more carefully, those two things just caught my eye.

[Meneltarmacil]

Meneltarmacil - I suspect of wolvery for reasons that I have explained before. Unless things change majorly today and he manages to avert my suspicions he will be the recipient of my vote again.

Once again, Kath accuses me of lycanthropy citing as her evidence things I have already explained. And, once again, Shelob accuses me shortly thereafter. I think it is possible that one of these may be a werebeast, either WereKath proposing the idea and Shelob being persuaded by her reasoning, or Kath being innocent and WereShelob using Kath's suggestion to cast suspicion on me. The latter is more likely than the former in my opinion.

As for other people, my suspects right now would be Glirdan, due to his impersonating the other Shirriff, and Holbytlass for acting so convinced of his innocence. Though I don't think they're both wolves, as I doubt Holby would make herself look guilty by defending her fellow wolf.

[Folwren]

Okay, folks, I've re-written everything. It's a lot of stuff. Hope I don't bore you to tears like I'm expecting to.

By Kath:
As I recall very few people have been suspicious of Folwren so it seems odd for her to give a defence just out of the blue like that. To be honest I am not sure that she is guilty, she could just be a little confused or freaked out by all the accusing going on, but I'd like to hear some explanations from her quite soon.

I’m going off instinct. In my mind, I can see my self suspectable because of my campaigning (so to speak) against Alcarillo and in favor of his death, which came about and ended up proving him innocent. Because I rallied so mercilessly against him and because he ended up lynched, people may believe that I killed an innocent on purpose. I’m trying to tell you I didn’t. And I also tell you, nt only did I truly believe him to be a werecreature, but I myself am completely innocent. (But any one will say that.)

I find this all very difficult. In an actual game where you’re playing with people personally it’s easy to tell at some point in time if they’re being true or false. A red face, a shifty eye, too loud a voice...you can use it all. But here...with the inability to see each other, it’s tripping me up, and I am indeed confused and panicky. Anyone who could see me would know that I was speaking truthfully when I say ‘I am innocent’, but nothing can be certain over a computer. That’s why I’m hasty to step out before anyone accuses me. If you ask me, I’ll tell you - yes, I do have a guilty conscious. I feel horrible now that Alcarillo’s been killed and found innocent. But I am not a werecreature.

By SpM:
Really folks, you might as well not contribute if you're not going to try to provide some kind of insight into our dilemma.

Look, I told you before I wrote my suspects that I didn't have time to tell you why. But now I’ll do my best to give some reason of why I suspect those names that I put down.

Glirdan I began to doubt yesterday with all his wishy-washy changing ideas, but this morning’s post really made me see a red flag go up for his name. People have excused him so far on account of his newness to the game, but I’m new and although I have my faults (indeed I’m very, very lacking in the skills needed in this game, apparently) I haven’t changed my opinion on people until (as in the case of Alcarillo) I am proved irrevocably wrong

Azaelia - I don’t think she’s said anything today thus far, but after everyone else’s death she seemed very sorry about it (like Glirdan this morning). Sorry, but not serious. An ordinary villager is less likely to say ‘Oh poor Short Guy! He got killed.’ and more likely to say more on ‘Why was he killed? Who killed him? Who will be next?’ She’s too light for a villager who is part of a village being torn apart by werewolves and a ravenous Bear.

My explanation for my suspicion of Kath is more difficult to analyze. All your defenses, Kath, and your rebukes, Sauce Man, have confused and partially angered and hurt me. However, looking at it with as cool a head I can manage, I come up with this -

Before she told Morm that she seriously suspected him, I found her posts things to be wary of. To me, she appears to speak carefully and kept to the shadows as much as she could, though at the same time, she tried to sound lighthearte, untroubled by the scheming thoughts that a werecreature might have, and she also tried to sound as though she really was a regular villager. But it all seemed like a false mask (to me).

When Morm made his suggestion that the Phantom and SpM might be both bad, it occurred to me that Morm might possibly himself be bad (though I doubted it) and he might want to throw a shadow of doubt on those two. It also struck me as somewhat dangerous for him. What if those two were doubted and eventually killed because of it? What if the villagers then turned on Morm for first suggesting it when they turned out to be good? That’s what I said what I said.

However, when Kath leapt on Morm not because of what he said, but because of a personal dislike, my suspicions hardened and took shape in a post I later wrote.

Last night’s killing threw me off. Kather wouldn’t have killed Morm after saying what she had. IT would be too dangerous for her, and there was no real reason.

So it is that I come to the conclusion that Kath is not guilty for Morm’s death, but she may have helped in the Phantom’s. My point is, my suspicion since yesterday has not been strengthened by his death, nor has it been weakened by it. I have begun to waver on it with how both Saucepan Man and Kath have attacked me on it and I’m beginning to rethink these, but you asked for my reasons for putting her name down and those are all the reasons I can come up with.

As for Menel, well, you’ll be happy to know I have less to say concerning him. I only suspect him because he accused me of doing something he himself did, he seems to misread people’s posts and makes them look terrible on account of it, and, as I said before, I don’t like him because he’s pointed at me more than once and I know that I for one am innocent. This is my weakest accusation...the one I least believe in, so I won’t stick to it.

His voting for Azaelia also helps prove me wrong, so he may be a happy, innocent villager himself.

[wilwarin538]

Alas, two gifteds in one night, and most likely we will lose are other Shirriff toNight. We must lynch a Were creature today.

Glirdan is one of my main suspects, he always seems to be agreeing with everyone, like he is trying to get on everyone's good side. When I read his first post today I thought he was the other Shirriff, but it turned out to be Nilp, so now Glirdan's post is making me very uneasy.

I am also suspicious of Azealia and somewhat suspicious of Menel, for reasons previously stated.

My list, in order of how suspicious they are to me:
Glirdan
Azealia
Menel

It seems that today I will probably vote for Glirdan.

I also have a question for Holby. Would you please explain the reason for your suspicion of me yesterDay? It doesn't look like you explained it. Thank you.

(sorry about how short and simple this is, I've got homework to get to )

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

wilwa looks a lot less suspicious now, because her tie-breaking vote on DAY 1 saved two innocents, not Wolves.

Glirdan looks more suspicious to me. What do you mean by this:Quote:
Mormegil!! Oh mormegil!! My good friend. I have only known you for a short time and yet I feel like I've known you forever. And now your gone! Taken from us by this horrible and gruesome fate! Why oh why!?!? (Glirdan in #189)

Are you trying to hint something? But what? I'm the second Shiriff, so you can't be hinting that!

Seeing that Nilp has not been challenged on being the other shirrif, it is safe to assume that his intentions are not to confuse or direct falsely. After seeing these two observations of his I am inclined to think he is on the right track.

I thought Glirdan was the ranger from him wanting to buy a sword and shield from Morm, but a real ranger would not then turn around and put in another clue about a different gifted role.

And Wilwa, I don't find you suspicious anymore, no hard feelings I hope, the fumes can make my head fuzzy sometimes.

[Holbytlass]

Just saw Wilwarin's question...At the time I didn't see anyone more suspicious and least of all Alcarillo, so you might say I was sticking to my guns.

[Glirdan]

Let's get one thing staright here. I was NOT trying to impersonate a Shirriff!! Morm, as I have stated previously, was a very dear friend of mine and I was grieving heavily for his death. Why on earth would you cast suspicion on someone who was greiving for a close friend!? I don't know how you took what I said earlier to be werecreaturish? I'm now in a state of shock, in case you don't know.

Enca and Morm, two people I've know very well, are dead! The phantom's death, even though me and him weren't great friends, was a terrible loss, especially since he was the Seer. And now I have to live with the fact that I've condemned two innocents to death. And because of that, it's put me in a pile of muck. I hope (if I'm not the one who gets lynched, which seems to be the case) that I don't make this mistake again.

As for my suspicions, I don't really have time to go through all the posts (homework) and have none right now. Although if I had any, it would be Gil due to the fact that he has been awfully silent as of late. Is it due to personal reasons, or is he a wolf or bear? Wayne as well. I will wait a little while before I vote.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I doNt think were doing to wEll cause we lost are seeR. I think that these people Are werewolfs. gliRdan Gil and menel.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Kath

Actually looking at that it is incredibly similar to Folwren's declaration of ord status. Is it possible that these two are wolves working together? If they consulted each other to find a way to avoid suspicion then this similarity might be explained.

Working together with Folwren when I voted for her lynching, and am still suspecting her as a guilty party?

Originally Posted by Cailín

If it's a clever double bluff and The Saucepan Man is, in fact, a wolf, someone save us...?

I think it's time for someone to save us. Personally, I think the 'clever double bluff' option is incredibly believable... Actually, as soon as I saw that the phantom, who was none other than our precious seer, had been killed...the first person I considered was Saucepan Man.

Did not the Seer only have 2 nights to dream, as his 3rd was tragically interrupted? I suppose it is plausible that he dreamt of Saucie, but if Saucie was not much of a suspect to begin with...why waste a dream on him? I consider him a suspect, though. And that's not *playing favorites*...or, well, the opposite, really. It seems Glirdan and Azaelia, and particularly the former, are the picks today. And they, of course, are the two names that Saucepan Man first pointed out. If either of them are horribly and wrongfully lynched, Saucie's guilt will be a little more certain to me.

I'm still wary of Folwren, particularly since Alcarillo turned out to be innocent as I thought. Her voting for Alcarillo seemed to be at a key moment, keeping the bandwagon rolling toward his lynching. Plus, today she has been very much a follower. She has practically copied exactly what Saucepan Man has said, and of course has the same suspects...now, anyway. Previously, her list had several names before that of Glirdan and Azaelia, but in her most recent post, they are the first, and who she seems to be mostly concerned with. Her accusations conerning Menel are also rather poor, though I would not disregard Menel as an innocent. Saucepan Man's explanation for his non-wolfishness is a good one, and though Saucie is always suspicious, for now I will at least hear his advice.

But if Saucie is a wolf, than Folwren most certainly is not (and vice-versa), as I doubt the wolves would ever be foolish enough to think exactly in the same way. Though Sauce does speak of Folwren accusations as without reasons. I agree with that, though now she has given some reasons, but...was that an attempt to distance himself from her? I still doubt this, but anything's possible.

wilwarin is concerning me slightly, because she seems to be following the crowd a lot, as well. I don't like that. That's trying to blend in and go unoticed, or just be impossible to pick out from all the bandwagoning.

F0rgiv3 m3 f0r t3h lengthiness. H4d a bi7 to say in my abs3nce(s).

EDIT: Cross-posted with the following: Holby, Glirdan, and Wayne

[wilwarin538]

Well it seems I will not be able to vote later. So here goes:

++GLIRDAN

I truly hope he is guilty. I would hate to be responsible for an innocent's death.

[Cailín]

As for other people, my suspects right now would be Glirdan, due to his impersonating the other Shirriff, and Holbytlass for acting so convinced of his innocence. Though I don't think they're both wolves, as I doubt Holby would make herself look guilty by defending her fellow wolf.

And why would Holby defend an innocent who she knows has every chance to die tonight, if she were a wolf? If she saves him, an actual fellow wolf might die. I don't think there's a were-relation between the two.

--

A lot of people seem to be thinking along the lines of Menel, Azaelia and Glirdan. I don't really believe that to be our wolf trio, but I pray it's true. Though Durelin just made another valid point, and I was thinking along the same lines earlier today when I made my newbie statement. If The Saucepan Man and say - Shelob - are working together, we are all following tremendously well. Has there been any other original thought today than what SpM said first? I mean, sure, he is a good reasoner and I still sort of think the phantom dreamed about him - but we can't be sure. The phantom never clearly stated he thought SpM was innocent, as Holby rightly says - he was far more determined about Glirdan.

I don't think I will start a lynch SpM campaign just yet - I'm still half convinced he's innocent - but I'd love to hear some more input from Azaelia, Glirdan and all the others who are heading straight for the gallows right now. If you're innocent, please don't follow what others already said before you, but give us some new thoughts. All the nodding and agreeing will just make you look more suspicious and won't be any help. I'm sorry to be so harsh, but if you're not the furry ones, you're making it very easy for some clever wolves out there. (As I might be, but I just think I need more opinions before I make my decision here.)

P.S. I'm still slightly wary of Kath. Maybe the werebear tried to frame her? ^^

[The Saucepan Man]

... your rebukes, Sauce Man, have confused and partially angered and hurt me.

No hurt intended, I can assure you. As I said, it was not just you that I was ranting at. You just happened to be the one in the way at the time.

I just wanted to get people talking, discussing and airing their views. And happily, it has worked. There is a much more healthy discussion going on now.

Although:

Originally Posted by WaynetheGoblin

I think that these people are werewolfs. GLIRDAN GIL AND MENEL.

Would you mind explaining why, old chap?

Glirdan's latest post was not particularly helpful either.

Originally Posted by Holby

I thought Glirdan was the ranger from him wanting to buy a sword and shield from Morm, but a real ranger would not then turn around and put in another clue about a different gifted role.

Ah, I see. Yes, I recall that comment standing out to me at the time but, on consideration, I dismissed it as a piece of "in character" banter. The same goes for his comment this morning about mormegil, although I did think that the greiving was rather over the top.

The phantom's comment led me to something that Azaelia had said. Something that made her look more suspicious than her place at the bottom of my list may have warranted. But I could be wrong. Certainly, she and Glirdan are my current main suspects. And I am tending towards Azaelia at the moment. I had hoped that she might have said more to-Day ...

I amworking on pulling together my thoughts on everyone who is still with us, and hope to share them shortly.

[Glirdan]

I will now have to cast my vote. It shall be....

++Gil-Galad

Due to his scilence (not thorughtout the entire game), he has mad me suspicous of him. Wayne also, but I think that it's more because he is a newbie, not because he is a werecreature.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Cailín

A lot of people seem to be thinking along the lines of Menel, Azaelia and Glirdan. I don't really believe that to be our wolf trio, but I pray it's true.

I don't either. If Azaelia is a Wolf, Menel is almost certainly not one. But I do think that at least one of those three (and probably not Menel) is a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Cailín

If The Saucepan Man and say - Shelob - are working together, we are all following tremendously well.

I do hope that no one is mindlessly following anything that anyone else says. If you are innocent, you should only vote for someone that you believe is guilty, particularly to-Day.

And I would much prefer that the votes be spread around, rather than being concentrated on just one or two candidates. It makes the voting much more informative the next Day.

Originally Posted by Cailín

I mean, sure, he is a good reasoner and I still sort of think the phantom dreamed about him - but we can't be sure. The phantom never clearly stated he thought SpM was innocent, as Holby rightly says - he was far more determined about Glirdan.

Of course you can't be sure. I wouldn't expect you to be. But I hope you will not think me immodest if I insist that the phantom seemed much nore confident of me than he did of Glirdan. His comment about Glirdan was simply based on his behaviour.

Now I really must get on with ordering my thoughts ...

[Kath]

My reasons for this vote have been explained earlier and as I have not been able to get online since my last post they have not changed. Therefore my vote goes to ;

++MENELTARMACIL

[Meneltarmacil]

I really am not all that convinced of anything about Glirdan at this point. He may be a werebeast, he may not. As far as whether or not he was guilty of Shirriff impersonation, I don't know, though his repetition of "I feel like I've known mormegil for a long time" does appear a little suspicious. Holbytlass falls into the same category in my book. Might be a Beast, might just be innocent. I'd like to hear more about why she feels Glirdan is innocent, however.

I am most suspicious of Shelob and Kath at this point, though. I'll probably vote for one of them by the end of the Day.

[Cailín]

It's getting late and I will not have another opportunity to cast my vote today...

I'll be going with my first instincts this game and vote:

++GLIRDAN

Because of reasons stated before: suspicious behavior, voting for two known innocents. I hope the votes spread out a little and the outcome of this lynching will not doom our village. I still have hope for us.

[The Saucepan Man]

Thoughts duly gathered. Here they are, in case anyone finds them useful:

Folwren:
Unduly anxious about looking suspicious for having voted for Alcarillo, when she had not really been accused. Overly defensive?
Didn’t vote on Day 1 (which I still regard as supicious).
Voted for Alcarillo on Day 2 to put him ahead of Azaelia. But is now strongly accusing Azaelia.

Shelob:
Voted for the phantom on Day 1. But there was no particular reason to think him innocent then.
Her vote for Meneltarmacil on Day 2 could have been part of an effort by the Wolves to spread their votes around.
Has appeared to be helpful and contributing without really putting forward any strong views on whom she suspects.

Holbytlass:
Seems “too innocent”, if you know what I mean. Looks like she’s trying to appear innocent and helpful, but without giving too much away.
A possible pairing with Kath, given the timing of her vote for Bergil on Day 1.
Her rather baseless supicion of (and vote for) wilwarin on Day 2 is supicious, but she has since changed her position on wilwarin.
On Day 2, she could have been trying to “hide” by voting for someone unlikely to be lynched.
To my mind, Holby plays her cards very close to her chest. She only identifies one main suspect each day and sticks to that. But that could be seen as a good thing.

Meneltarmacil:
Despite my vote for him yester-Day, I really don’t think him to be a Wolf. His vote for Azaelia on Day 2 rather than Alcarillo persuades me otherwise.
Almost certainly not a Wolf if Azaelia is.

WaynetheGoblin
Difficult to say as he doesn’t really say much.
The only thing which I find at all suspicious is his failure to vote on Day 2.
I’ll keep him in the “don’t know” category.

Wilwarin538:
I am not so sure that her vote “to save two innocents” on Day 1 clears her, as she voted for another innocent, namely Bergil.
Her vote for Azaelia on Day 2 clears her if Azaelia is a Wolf.
Not much else to go on, but I tend to think her innocent.

Durelin:
Despite her accusation of me, it appears that she is trying to be helpful.
But her votes for unlikely lynching candidates (me on Day 1 and Folwren on Day 2) could be attempts to avoid suspicion.
Another don’t know, although I have my eye on her as a possible Bear since she has been successfully doing very little to garner suspicion.

The Saucepan Man:
I am innocent and I believe that the phantom’s comments speak in my favour.
I am glad that some of you here at least are prepared to give me the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

Kath:
Difficult one this. I did suspect her originally for her lack of analysis but she has been much more forthcoming recently.
She has stuck doggedly to her conviction of Menel’s guilt and has named very few other suspects, similar to Holby.
As noted above, she could be a pairing with Holby, given that Holby’s vote for Bergil on Day 1 took some of the pressure of her.
I just have a bad feeling about Kath, although it may be nothing.

Azaelia of Willowbottom:
Her last minute vote for Bergil was very strange. She claims to have panicked. If she is telling the truth, it seems to me much more likely that a Wolf would have panicked than an innocent because Wolves have more reason to consider the implications of their vote. An ordinary villager, if unsure of whom to vote for, would have just voted for someone who was unlikely to be lynched. If she is not telling the truth then she is not to be trusted.
She was the first to suggest that Alcarillo was responsible for TGWBS’s death (executing a frame-up plan?) and led the calls for Alcarillo’s lynching.
She hardly ever accuses anyone except the person she votes for.
She has voted for two known innocents.
She seems to have been the phantom’s only real suspect. Was he getting too close for comfort?

Cailín:
Another “don’t know”.
Her vote for Alcarillo is not overly suspicious as she was only the second person to vote for him.
She seems to be trying to help the village’s cause, and I have no particular reason to suspect her.
Which of course makes me slightly suspicious.

Nilpaurion Felagund
I think it’s pretty clear now that he is the second shirriff.

Gil-Galad:
He has said very little of consequence, although I’m sure that he knows that this is bound to attract suspicion.
He seemed very proud of himself for voting for Kitanna, and eager to make sure everyone knew about it. He had no reason to know, when he voted, that she was the Cobbler, so perhaps he was using this to try to establish a false innocence.
Definitely suspicious.

Glirdan:
Flip-flopper and seemingly over-eager to please. I originally put this down to naïve excitement, but now I’m not so sure.
He has voted for two known innocents, and with quite suspicious timing too.
Could be paired with Kath for the timing of his vote for Bergil on Day 1, or with either Azaelia or Menel (but not both) for the timing of his vote for Alcarillo on Day 2.
Over the top grieving for our fallen villagers, but this could just be “in character” interplay.

So, in summary:

Top suspects: Azaelia and Glirdan. Azaelia edges it on the evidence and because I still have this nagging feeling that Glirdan is simply guileless.
Secondary suspects: Holbytlass, Folwren, Kath, Gil-Galad and Shelob.
Don’t knows: Cailín, Durelin and WaynetheGoblin.
Probably not Wolves: Meneltarmacil and wilwarin.
Definitely innocent: Nilpaurion and The Saucepan Man.

[The Saucepan Man]

Glirdan has three votes already and Azaelia has none!

We need to try to keep these Wolves on their toes.

So, without further ado (and for the reasons previously stated):

++AZAELIA OF WILLOWBOTTOM

[Shelob]

Carrying on with my suspicion from yesterday I think I'm going to vote

++MENELTARMACIL

again.

[Meneltarmacil]

Having stated my reasons for who I think is most guilty, my vote goes to

++Shelob

The tigers are probably getting pretty hungry about now, so I'll be off feeding them.

[The Saucepan Man]

It certainly seems like Menel has a policy of refusing to cast the vote most likely to save his own skin.

Surely, with 6 votes left (including from some who those have accused him to-Day), he would have voted for Glirdan, or even Azaelia or Gil-Galad, if he were a beast.

He is either a beast who likes living on the edge, or completely and thoroughly innocent ...

[Durelin]

You're a bit of a contradiction today, Cailín! You spoke of following, and now you vote for Glirdan...interesting.

But Meneltmarcil's recent vote upsets me. I am nowhere near sure of anyone'sinnocence, except the poor souls who have perished, but his vote for Shelob is quite intriguing, and perhaps revealing. With two votes against him, he votes for one person who voted for him. Still, he would have had a better chance by voting for Glirdan like the rest. So, perhaps Saucie is right about him, and my reaction to his vote is baseless.

*sighs* Another almost blind vote... I don't know where we'll be if it's another innocent, which it most likely will be.

What can I say, I'm a pessimist?

I am also a contradiction today, and I take back my comment on Cailín. I suppose it doesn't do much good going against the crowd altogether...one person will still get lynched today.

++AZAELIA OF WILLOWBOTTOM

Saucepan Man's list was helpful. The arguments against her make the most sense to me, and as I said before...what's the point of voting for someone, knowing that there is hardly a chance this will affect anything. The only point to avoiding being counted among the lynchee votes is staying away from blame if they are innocent. I have no reason to do that.

I hope we've got ourselves a wolf, though as always, I'm skeptical as well as pessimistic. At least we'll see if Saucie can be trusted for sure.

[The Saucepan Man]

The votes currently stand at:

Glirdan - 3
Gil-Galad - 1
Menel - 2
Azaelia - 2
Shelob - 1

[Holbytlass]

I'm not sure of anyone right this second, so I will be the 'suspicious' second vote for
++Azaelia

to keep the wolves on their toes.

[Durelin]

A tie... I almost regret my vote... A double lynching certainly is not in order... I'm glad there are several votes to go.

[The Saucepan Man]

I suspect that Holby cross-posted with you Durelin.

But Folwren, Azaelia, Gil-Galad and Wayne are yet to vote. At least two of those are likely to do so.

So it won't necessarily be a tie.