Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Lalaith]

Can I point out, with regard to the Saucie's list, that if you check the times of the posts yesterday, you will see that his and my vote were more or less simultaneous.
At the time I posted, the voting stood at CofD 5, Gil 4. A vote for Gil, as far as I knew, would have resulted in a double lynching. It was not until after I made my post, I saw that SpM had also voted for CofD.

[wilwarin538]

I am very sorry to lose Firefoot. Her insights have always been helpful and her loss is all the more grievous in light of her Shirriff status. I have a pretty good idea who the other Shirriff may be, but it is for him or her to decide whether to reveal that. If they do, they will face almost certain death tonight, but may be able to help us today.

I don't understand this. Why would the other shirriff be in any danger? Isn't it the Seer and the Hunter that the wolves and bear are after right now? The shirriff isn't really a threat to them.

[Lalaith]

Wilwarin, a known innocent is very useful to the other innocents of the village, strategically. You can look at WWIV to see why.

[wilwarin538]

Wilwarin, a known innocent is very useful to the other innocents of the village, strategically. You can look at WWIV to see why.

I know this. Its the way Saucie said that if the other shirriff reveals themself they would definetly be the one to go tonight. Why is that? Why would the wolves or bear be threatened by the shirriff?

[Meneltarmacil]

I believe it likely that ye Beare was among those who voted for ye Captain yesterDaye. Ye Beare was probably one of ye people who caste a lot of suspicione on him too, as it would drawe it awaye from him/herselfe. I muste be off soone, but after I returne in a fewe hours, I shall reviewe postes by those such as Boromir88...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

His taking of the lead is either just him being very helpful as an innocent (and perhaps even gifted), or he knows something we all do not due to his guilt.

Actually, I think that your comment yester-Day is probably nearer the mark:

Originally Posted by Durelin, yester-Day

SaucepanMan says too much, and really has no idea what he's doing

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Its the way Saucie said that if the other shirriff reveals themself they would definetly be the one to go tonight. Why is that? Why would the wolves or bear be threatened by the shirriff?

For the reasons that Lalaith stated. A known innocent, if declared at the right time, can certainly be very dangerous for them. I said "almost certain" because they would of course rather go for the Seer if they thought that they had identified him or her. And it might be dangerous for them to go for the Hunter if they felt that he or she was on to them.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm speechless. Well, that might not be an entirely bad thing but really, I cannot make a proper case against anyone right now. Well, I could blame Durelin for a couple of reasons. She voted for Firefoot and now she's dead. She also tried to draw attention from Gurthang, Mithalwen & lmp but on the other hand, that's what I did on Day1, too.

As Saucy pointed out, Lalaith's suspicions towards Boromir & Gurthang are odd. She also kept asking if the Seer can reveal the Bear and her post #124 was somewhat weird. But I think she's rather the bear than a wolf.

Mithwolfwen said very early on the first day that "trying to guess the degree of bluff is just mindspinning. It may be an error to dig too deeply and ignore the obvious. Personally if push came to shove, I would vote in better conscience for someone who had acted suspiciously than someone who hadn't - in the absence of something more definite." Is this supposed to be a clue or was she just talking to make her post look longer?

Why do wolves want to kill somebody? 1) to frame someone up, 2) they think they've found the Seer, 3) they're bluffing

So, Morm and Firefoot were killed by wolves but even though I'm considering all the options above, I can't pinpoint any culprits. I'll post more later if I can sort out my thought.

[Gurthang]

Alas, more blood has been spilt. I shall miss Firefoot especially, as I greatly admired her work and often conversed with her about the animals she drew. Encaitare, the poor girl, I have always felt sad for her. As strange as her Lover was, it was a bitter loss to her none the less.

And CaptainOfDespair was our Ranger. That is a bitter loss to all of us. I that Saucepan Man is right when he says that one or two of those we hunt were likely in the voting for Captain. She hinted very early that she was a gifted, and some may have voted for that reason.

I am still suspicious of Durelin. She explained herself a little yesterday, but now I see her quick vote(yesterday) for Saucepan Man. That vote smells like an attempted start at a bandwagon.

Gil-Galad, I'm still suspicious of, too. Some of you have mentioned that it's just him being himself, and I am somewhat inclined to beleive it, yet his voting on the first day still seems to point him out as a wolf, and he confuses me, which makes me wonder if he's the cobbler.

I would love to hear more from Nonnacedak. He posts very little, and seems to be worried about people thinking he's guilty when no one has suspected him. He's still just slightly suspicious to me.

[Lalaith]

She also kept asking if the Seer can reveal the Bear

Do you really think that if I was the Bear I would have drawn attention to myself like that, surely I would have just quietly asked the Moderator by PM?

I asked about the Seer and the Bear openly because Saucie asked for a discussion, with all of us coming up with ideas on how to catch the bear and I didn't know if the Seer could be useful to us in this, or not.
I asked twice because as I said above, I didn't spot Oddwen's reply.

[Lalaith]

She hinted very early that she was a gifted, and some may have voted for that reason.

You know, that's a very good point. Obviously the wolves knew CoD wasn't one of them, so they would be the only ones who knew for sure that he wasn't bluffing.

[littlemanpoet]

I have been busy at my baking ovens, preparing some special treats for those of you who remain alive, to observe a memorial to CaptainofDespair and those who have been grievously slain during the night.

For those who voted to lynch CaptainofDespair I've prepared custard pie with extra whipped cream. Here you go!

::LMP throws custard pies (egg) in the faces of Arcticstorm, Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant, Saucepan Man, Boromir, SamwiseGamgee, and Meneltarmacil::

And for each of you who voted more wisely, I present you each with your own Dainish Pastry, straight from the Iron Hills! Enjoy! Oh! There's an extra pair for our two dear departeds. Oh well, I guess I'll have to eat them myself.

::eats them himself::

Now to it.

SPM's werebear motivations and strategies set is but one of a number of possible choices for the werebear. Durelin, though I still suspect her, did wisely say that the werebear wouldn't be as brash as CoD. SPM's werebear strategy is only the most obvious choice, and therefore one that the werebear might be tempted to set aside because of its obviousness. What troubles me most about SPM's werebear strategy is that it applies every bit as well to your typical innocent villager. Note: in the following text I have substituted "an innocent villager" for "a Black Beorning"

Originally Posted by SPM

But this is the behaviour of an innocent villager - to pick up on suggestions of guilt (in others than himself) and encourage them.

And an innocent villager would do this on the grounds that it would make sense to him/her.

Originally Posted by SPM

Interestingly, earlier on Day 1 (post #36), he had picked up on the suspicions then being voiced against Gurthang and also made a random accusation against Durelin (perhaps to add her name into the mix). Next time he posted (post #49) was to vote against Mithalwen after Gurthang, Firefoot, SamwiseGamgee & wilwarin538 had all commented on her suspicious behaviour. Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Innocent Villager doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects.

This last sentence just stood out to me so strongly as lawyerly persuasion at its most dangerous. I am NOT saying that SPM is suspicious, I'm saying that he let his theorizing take flight without checking all the angles. Very dangerous and tempting behavior for someone who is overeager to catch a bad guy. And quite understandable.

Originally Posted by SPM

If Mithalwen turned out to be a Wolf (as she did), his first vote for her would stand to his credit. If not, that would be an[other] innocent Villager down and he could distance himself from the outcome by pointing out the earlier suspicions voiced by others. He was quiet for the rest of the day.

Upshot: I think it's wrongheaded to try to go after the Black Beorning, especially when there are some obviously suspicious people hanging around. Even if there weren't, it's still unwise to go blindly after the Black Beorning with shots in the dark that are more likely to take down an innocent villager than going after werewolves is. We're used to going after werewolves, and have proven ourselves not too shabby at it. Yes, I know that 2 villagers per night will continue to get killed, but the sooner we take out 2 more werewolves and/or the cobbler, the less likely the villagers will lose this battle. The odds are against us! Do not dilly dally with half-baked schemes and persuasions! We've lost our Ranger, who NEVER seemed guilty in the least to me, at any point.

And there's another thing. The introduction of the Cobbler into our scenario has rendered the noble suicide for the sake of the village, suspect. In other villages, when someone did this, it was obvious to the rest of the villagers that they were voting for the wrong person. Now it could be the cobbler, but probably isn't, precisely because the cobbler is probably going to be more subtle than that. Even so, saying "make my day" actually is now counterproductive whereas it used to reveal innocence, because the speaker "just might" be the cobbler.

Gurthang, earlier you reminded me that Boromir and Encaitare were only doing what I had already done, accusing someone for being in character. The difference is that I was the first, and they bandwaggoned on my idea. If it had been the other way around, I'd be the suspicious one.

I am now less suspicious of Durelin because her voice of reason in post #160 echoes my sentiments exactly, and her reasons for wild posting have (to me at least) the ring of truth (and maybe I'm a fool, but you gotta go with something, eh?).

I too did notice that SPM fits his description of the werebear quite well. And it's just as interesting that he was the one to get into the mind of a werebear first. Now, that may be good citizenship at its best, but then again it may be something more furry. Not that I believe that, but NOBODY BUT NOBODY should escape scrutiny, and that includes yours truly, of course.

Lalaith strikes me as either the werebear or a certain type that I choose not to specify...

If I were the Seer, I should like to dream about Arcticstorm, whose posts have been bland and safe, his votes safer, flying so far under the radar that he seems mighty suspicious to me upon reading through my notes. He's been too invisible, letting the loudmouths point the finger at others, covering over his quietness. Very furry behavior, seems to me.

Which brings me to another point about innocence versus guilt and how to tell the difference under these circumstances. Fortified with the knowledge of their own innocence, these types tend to view attacks against themselves as suspicious; thus people like CoD basically hit back, because they became suspicious of SPM for attacking them. Same goes for Durelin, whom, since her post #160, I now believe to be innocent. You see, people who are not cobblers or werecreatures tend to post the first thing they think of because they don't feel that they have to cover their butts. Werecreatures and cobblers are saddled with a constant job of doublethink, and that's the kind of thing that shows, and it's what we need to look for.

Boromir is also looking furry to me, because of his safe voting, his tendency to divert attention away from certain things towards where he wants it (post 113 for example).

So I think we should give serious consideration to lynching one and dreaming the other of Arcticstorm & Boromir.

Likely Innocents, on the strength of their contributions to finding furry beasts:
Dancing Spawn
Gurthang (first to attack Mith)
SPM
Oh, and me.

Probably innocent on the strength of their sometimes contributions and rather guileless posting:
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Meneltarmacil
Wilwarin
Laitaine (it's way too hard to write verse that scans and rhymes, AND be a wereanything. I should know!)

Somewhat suspicious:
Nonnacedak (posts 37, 135, 157, 167)
Samwisegamgee (posts 44 - conveniently late vote for Mith-, 137 - SPM too clever-; in his defense, I agree with him that we should have stopped the craziness in voting for SPM - post 165.

Very suspicious:
Arcticstorm
Boromir

There. Phew!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I can see why suspicion is being directed towards those of us who did not vote for Mith on the first day. But bear in mind that none of the villagers (except the 2 other wolves and very, very possibly the Seer) actually knew that Mith was a wolf.
If she had turned out to be innocent, suspicions would now be directed in a very different way.

The fact is, Lalaith, that Mithalwen was not innocent. And, as you say, the two other Wolves knew that. So, while it is perfectly reasonable for an innocent not to vote for her, it is nevertheless very likely that one Wolf at least, and possibly both, did not either. And, in those circumstances, the logical thing for a Wolf to do would be to vote not for the Villager that Mithalwen had voted for and who had the second highest number of votes (which would look too suspicious) but to vote for someone who had already been voted for and who might yet be lynched in her place. Which is exactly what you did.

I am not (yet) saying that we should lynch Lalaith, because she does seem to me to be genuine in what she says. But her record does not speak well of her.

Originally Posted by Lalaith at #190

However I do sense the hints of some kind of complicity between Mene and Boromir.

Originally Posted by Menel at #205

I believe it likely that ye Beare was among those who voted for ye Captain yesterDaye. Ye Beare was probably one of ye people who caste a lot of suspicione on him too, as it would drawe it awaye from him/herselfe. I muste be off soone, but after I returne in a fewe hours, I shall reviewe postes by those such as Boromir88...

That’s interesting. Was Menel reacting to Lalaith’s suggestion of a link between himslef and Boromir88? I am not quite sure what to make of that.

Has anyone yet got any kind of a handle on dancing spawn? She seems to be coming up with lots of points, but little in the way of conclusions. I would like to think her innocent, but she troubles me at the moment.

[Lalaith]

But her record does not speak well of her

On the first day, no-one really knows what they are doing. I didn't think either Mith or Gurthang guilty (as both were acting too suspiciously!) so I went for what I thought was a feasible alternative.
On the second day, I did exactly what you did, SpM. So what was the problem there? (well, other than the fact that poor old CofD was the Ranger, of course... )

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Do you really think that if I was the Bear I would have drawn attention to myself like that, surely I would have just quietly asked the Moderator by PM?

Yes, dear, that's why I said it.

While reading all posts from the beginning I thought that there was something wrong with Boromir but it seemed more wolvish than bearish and therefore I have mostly abandoned my suspicions. I mean, if he was a wolf his vote for Mith would have been quite shameless.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well well, LMP, your long post provides much food for thought.

SPM's werebear motivations and strategies set is but one of a number of possible choices for the werebear.

Well pardon me for trying to catch a Bear! My understanding was that it was the expressed preference of many in this Village to track down the Bear as a priority, in order to cut down the number of kills per Night. And, while I recognised the difficulties of spotting Bearish behaviour, I tended to agree that we should not overlook the Werebear in our eagerness to find the Wolves. Also, I seem to recall some suspicion being cast in my direction for being zealous in my hunt for the Wolves but not being quite so energetic with regard to the Bear.

What troubles me most about SPM's werebear strategy is that it applies every bit as well to your typical innocent villager. Note: in the following text I have substituted "an innocent villager" for "a Black Beorning"

I agree with you to an extent, but I cannot accept that the following is a fair analysis of an innocent Villager’s motives:

Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Innocent Villager doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects.

Of course innocent Villagers mind who is lynched. Innocent Villagers should be very careful about bandying names around, in case the wrong people (other innocents and Gifteds) get it in the neck. Of course, the Village is bound to lynch innocents and probably even Gifteds in its search for the lycanthropes. It’s unavoidable and, unfortunately, it happened to us yester-Day. But innocents should and do care who gets lynched. Not so with the Bear. He or she is free to accuse, and vote for, whomsoever he chooses as long as it does not attract too much suspicion.

I should point out that I did not vote for CaptainofDespair purely for his pattern of behaviour, but also for his reaction to my suggestion that he might be the Bear. With the benefit of hindsight, it was understandable. But at the time, it made him look mighty suspicious to me. And I am sure that I was not alone in that.

I am NOT saying that SPM is suspicious … I too did notice that SPM fits his description of the werebear quite well. And it's just as interesting that he was the one to get into the mind of a werebear first. Now, that may be good citizenship at its best, but then again it may be something more furry.

You seem to be casting a fair degree of suspicion in my direction for someone who does not think me suspicious …

Upshot: I think it's wrongheaded to try to go after the Black Beorning, especially when there are some obviously suspicious people hanging around.

I agree that we should be careful about who we lynch as a candidate for Werebeardom. I fully acknowledged yester-Day, when deciding how to vote, that there was a greater chance of catching the Wolves than the Bear. But I, and others too I am sure, found the temptation of bagging the Bear just a little bit too tempting. So, yes, we should try not to be too reckless in our search for the Black Beorning. But we should not neglect him. And I am wary of anyone who suggests that we should concentrate exclusively on the Wolves.

If I were the Seer, I should like to dream about Arcticstorm, whose posts have been bland and safe, his votes safer, flying so far under the radar that he seems mighty suspicious to me upon reading through my notes. He's been too invisible, letting the loudmouths point the finger at others, covering over his quietness. Very furry behavior, seems to me.

Funny how you are making a very strong accusation against arcticstorm now, shortly after he identified you as his main Werebear suspect, having (as far as I can see) never accused him previously. You now have the dubious honour of topping of my “Bear-watch” list too.

Boromir is also looking furry to me, because of his safe voting, his tendency to divert attention away from certain things towards where he wants it (post 113 for example).

Please could you explain this? I don’t see anything “diversionary” in what he has said.

[Boromir88]

I do not deny my influence in Captain's death. I sadly had a part to play in it, I will admit, putting some strong accusations towards him. However, my vote for him was not in an attempt to start a bandwagon (there were other purposes which I wish not to reveal). If you want to know you'll have to see how I responded to Captain's quick vote and figure it out for youselves.

Boromir is also looking furry to me, because of his safe voting, his tendency to divert attention away from certain things towards where he wants it (post 113 for example).

You're quite right, I do divert, but got it backwards. I don't do it for myself, lmp.

Gurthang, earlier you reminded me that Boromir and Encaitare were only doing what I had already done, accusing someone for being in character. The difference is that I was the first, and they bandwaggoned on my idea. If it had been the other way around, I'd be the suspicious one.

Another thing mistaken lmp. In post #2 Alcarillo voiced some concern for Gurthang. My post after #3 voiced stronger concerns. And continued until Gurthang defended his stance in which case I turned my decision towards Mithalwen (which was a much wiser choice).

I say we try something new. Our plans failed yesterday when it came to Captain, it's time to try something new. As we voice our thoughts on what the "bear" or the "wolves" would do, that gives them ideas on what to do. So to say things like "a bear would obviously not do this, it would be to suspicious"...or the "wolf would not do this...etc" they pick up on these things and do that exact thing knowing it would look TOO suspicious to us therefor they can't be the bear/wolf. It's something that I would like to call as using reverse psychology, we say to do this would be way too suspicious therefor that person can't be the wolf/bear, so they go ahead and do it that way, knowing we won't cast suspicion on them.

For instance, we said Laitane voted for Alcarillo, then next day Alcarillo is killed by the bear. This would be far too suspicious for a bear to kill the person he/she voted for on Day 1, so Laitane can't be the bear. On the contrary she (right?) could be.

Also, on for the wolves I'm doing my first suspect list for the wolves in which case Gil-Galad and lmp are most suspicious to me. Gil-galad for reasons continuing from the last day, and despite me thinking his defense sounds exactly like Gil-galad, being Gil-galad, that's what he wants us to think. So, reversing it, he puts this lackluster defense up knowing we'll think oh, it just sounds like something Gil-galad would say, so they it can't be him.

lmp, for the reasons of Mithalwen's quick identifying him as the seer. To me there is no reason to believe lmp is the seer. Mithalwen did not plan on getting caught so early, so this could have been some wolfish strategy designed at the beginning, to cast off suspicion. Again we have Mithalwen, Gil-Galad, and lmp on day one all voting for Gurthang. 3 wolves sticking together? This would all be too suspicious, so it can't be, it would be too bold. But, "reversing it," the wolves know we'll think this, therefor all 3 wolves stick together and vote the same.

For wolves: Most suspicious-
1. Gil-galad
2. lmp

For bears, most suspicious-
1. Laitane.

Everyone else is also suspicious so here's my breakdown of (more, less, or almost none suspicious)

More Suspicious:
1. Durelin
2. Lalaith
3. Nonnacedak

Less Suspicious:
1. Meneltarmacil
2. Gurthang
3. wilwarin
4. Samwise

Almost no suspicion, to the point where they just seem fully innocent:
1. Saucepan Man
2. Dancing Spawn
3. Arcticstorm

Edit: More to come on why I think this way with the lists I made further on once I look harder through the posts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

As we voice our thoughts on what the "bear" or the "wolves" would do, that gives them ideas on what to do.

Precisely. It's called herding.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Almost no suspicion, to the point where they just seem fully innocent ... Dancing Spawn

I tend to agree. But could anyone tell me exactly why dancing spawn seems innocent to them? She seems innocent to me too, but I can't quite put my finger on why that is. Which makes me uneasy ...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Boromir

As we voice our thoughts on what the "bear" or the "wolves" would do, that gives them ideas on what to do.

I agree but we should remember that what we say may not be what we really think.

For wolves: Most suspicious-
1. Gil-Galad
2.lmp

That would explain why lmp is still alive after the Seer talk. If lmp wasn't a wolf he would have been an easy and untraceable prey for the wolves. I'm more inclined to think Gil as a cobbler, though.

Btw, SpM, I'm aware that you don't know what to think of me but since I guess I'm not eligible to answer your question I just disregard it.

[Boromir88]

this post is mainly for lmp...

Boromir is also looking furry to me, because of his safe voting, his tendency to divert attention away from certain things towards where he wants it (post 113 for example).

Frankly, to be honest, I do divert, but Post #113 is not a diversion. That was my post of possibile suspicions coming into the day (as I plan on doing everyday). They are thoughts gathered from the lynching that day, and the people chosen to be killed at night, not to start a diversion.

My only diversion comes when talks of votes coming up. (Which you will have to find where those posts are, I've already given some clues). As you will see these posts come much later when actual voting begins, my intentions you will have to find out for yourself, or maybe it will become clearer in the coming days. Since, I have not gotten into trouble of being lynched, I think it is unfair to say that I steer attention away from myself. To seereally what I try to do is up for your own interpretation.

I tend to agree. But could anyone tell me exactly why dancing spawn seems innocent to them? She seems innocent to me too, but I can't quite put my finger on why that is. Which makes me uneasy ...

I feel much of the same. I say Dancing because she contributes to the cause, and her voting is not all that suspicious.

11. LMP for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
12. Dancing spawn for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)

She could have died it up between CoD nad G-G, so that mostly shows to me that she's not the bear. The bear might try to get a double lynching.

Not a wolf because her vote sealed Mithalwen's fate. She could be a cobbler, but it seems highly unlikely if she's trying to find the wolves. Afterall, the cobbler would want to help the wolves.

This is why I think Gil-galad is the wolf, and not the cobbler. The cobbler doesn't have any idea who the wolves are, and with voting close, I doubt on Day 1 the cobbler would tie things up to try to take pressure of Mithalwen. It so happened that Mithalwen was a wolf, and the only person to know Mithalwen is a wolf, is the other wolves, therefor tieing the votes makes him look more wolfish then cobbleresque.

[Lalaith]

I’ve got a bit of time on my hands right now but probably won’t have much time later, except to come on to read and vote tomorrow. So, as many of us have been posting our opinions on our fellow villagers, here’s mine.
Oh one thing before I start: I wanted to follow up the point Gurthang made earlier about the wolves knowing that CoD wasn’t bluffing. I thought this was good reasoning but then I realised the wolves might also have thought, like a lot of people clearly did, that CoD was the werebear and so WAS bluffing. In which case they might, or might not, have voted for him.

So, the survivors, in alphabetical order:
Arcticstorm – voiced early suspicions of Mithalwen, so unlikely to be a wolf. Has not acted in a particularly Cobblerish way. Might conceivably be the Bear but I don’t think so.
littlemanpoet of Willowbottom – Our strangely gendershifting baker is to my mind a possible wolf. Mith's hint about the Seer, and his quick vote for Gurthang. If he thought Gil was the cobbler and CoD the bear, it might explain his vote for Durelin on day 2.
Boromir88 – His insistence that innocents need not and should not defend themselves was wrong and unhelpful, particularly with regard to his persecution of the late Captain. Possible Bear.
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant – SpM’s reasoning in post #200 puts her in the spotlight. (And yes, I know it puts me in the spotlight too) Voted for Mith after her fate was more or less sealed. LMP puts her in the category of those he doesn’t suspect at all because of their role in catching wolves, but this is odd as she never voiced any suspicion of Mith before she voted for her. I think she is a possible wolf.
Durelin – Her actions were initially skittish and random, but today she makes more sense. Mildly suspicious.
Gil-Galad - Like nearly all of us have said. Could be a wolf, could be the cobbler, could just be Gil.
Gurthang. That first day vote does bother me. He’s not a wolf, that’s for sure, and I don’t think he’s a bear, but he might be the cobbler.
Laitaine –Someone I’m just not sure about. Some of you have pounced on my early defence of her infrequent posting but that was just a passing comment, a fairly obvious piece common-sense.
Meneltarmacil – Again, mildly suspicious. I too noticed what SpM pointed out in post #212.
Nonnacedak – Another not sure. Like a lot of you, I’m finding it hard to get a handle on this character.
SamwiseGamgee – Not a wolf. He was “sure as he can be” however that CofD was a Bear, and voted for him early. Only mildly suspicious as cobbler or a bear however.
Saucepan Man – He rabble-rouses with Boromir’s help to lynch CofD. And, like dancing spawn, he voted for Mith suspiciously late. However unlike DS he did voice suspicions of Mith earlier in the day. He cheerfully implicates himself by his own reasoning in post 200. Few wolves would be so audacious but if anyone would be up for such a daring plan, it would be SpM. Yet… his reasoning has mostly been sound (except when it comes to his stubborn suspicions of my good self, ahem) and I somehow think he’s innocent.
Wilwarin538 – Again, someone I am not sure about at all.

Chief wolf suspects: LMP and dancing spawn. Minor wolf suspect: Gil.
Chief Bear suspect: Boromir.
Chief Cobbler suspects: Gil-Galad and Gurthang.

Lalaith reserves the right to change her mind on any or all of the above and is open to all reasonable argument.

[arcticstorm]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Not a wolf because her vote sealed Mithalwen's fate.

On the contrary, Her vote sealed Mith's fate, yes, but Saucepan and Firefoot had already voiced their suspicions of Mith and it was known that they were more than likely going to vote for Mith. With that in mind, it would be the perfect tactic for a wolf to cast the vote to seal the fate of a fellow wolf, when it is known that he will die anyway.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

Btw, SpM, I'm aware that you don't know what to think of me but since I guess I'm not eligible to answer your question I just disregard it.

Well, I have no objection to you telling me why you seem innocent either ...

I had been thinking along similar lines to arcticstorm with regard to your vote for Mithalwen.

[Nonnacedak]

I know that it's risky to defend somebody but I've been thinking about things and I believe that Gurthang is innocent. The reason being is what Mormegil had said and done. I'm thinking that the wolves killed him because they thought him to be the seer. He got a lucky guess with Mithalwen and helped to flush her out. I can see how the wolves thought him to be the seer and he tried to cover his tracks by saying 2 others along with that. One innocent (Firefoot) and one unknown (Articstorm) then when he sees the Mith bandwagon going on tries to say "maybe she's innocent" The wolves probably viewed this as the seer saying "I'm not the seer" and to my mind the final factor for the wolves to think Mormegil the seer is when he proclaimed seemingly randomly that Gurthang is innocent. The wolves probably know he is so therefore this strenghtened their false belief that he was the seer.

Now this, to my mind shows that Gurthang is not a wolf, of course he could be the bear but I don't think so. Now I have been troubled in mind about Dancing Spawn. Similar to what SpM said she just isn't sitting right. I think also Mormegil may have pointed to Articstorm and guessed two of three wolves correct.

Ill try to post again soon. Will depend on the durned trout!

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by arcticstorm

On to the Bear victims.
Alcarillo: voiced minor suspicion of Gurthang but more toward LMP. Later he put Mith on the top of the list and voted for him. NOt much to go on there yet, but I will examine it further with Enca's suspicions later. He ended up by voting for a Mithalwen.

Enca: On Day 1 she voiced suspicion of Gurthang early on, and didn't say much else for the rest of the day
On day 2: Post suspicion of LMP being a wolf. She becomes suspicious of Gil and votes for Gil. She may have beeen killed for her contributions shortly after the day was half over, but let us look at that closer.

Alcarillo's next suspect was LMP, he got himself killed.
Enca also voices some suspicion of LMP and gets herself killed by the bear. This may be a coincidence or it may be someone trying to frame LMP. Or maybe LMP is the bear. Yes Enca voiced suspicion of him being a wolf, but if people vote to kill him of wolvery, he still dies wether he is a wolf or a bear.

Right now my wolf suspicion list is Durelin first followed by Gil
and LMP heads up my bear suspicion list.

I'd like everyone to be aware that I did not read this post until after I submitted my own first of the day. Quite interesting, Arcticstorm, building up a trumped up case like this, looking for all the world like you're doing in depth analysis while only using others' words to build your own case. You are getting all the more suspicious. I won't vote for you just yet, want to read through all the posts first.

[Meneltarmacil]

After reading Boromir88's posts, I only finde a fewe clues that woulde hinte at what he is. He accuseth Gurthang on ye firste Daye due to ye in-character commente, then voteth for Mithalwen after Gil-Galad, putting her in firste place. That woulde hinte that he is at leaste not a Wolfe.

On ye seconde Daye, he pointeth out differente people as suspects, then leapeth on ye bandwagon for CaptainofDespair following Ye Saucepan Man's suspicions. His vote is ye one that putteth Captain in ye majority. He seemeth to not saye a whole lot, but goeth along with ye moste suspiciouse people at ye time. He mighte be ye Beare, but it is harde to telle ye Beare aparte from an Ordinary Villager, at leaste harder than it is to telle a Wolfe aparte. I finde him a little suspiciouse, but all I can saye is that he is probably not a Wolfe. I don'te have many leads to go on righte now.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Well pardon me for trying to catch a Bear!

You are forgiven.

And yes, I admit that a lot of my substitute "innocent villager" proofs were not as good as I had originally thought; the only one was that which I especially concentrated on. Most of that post was composed overnight while I hoped to survive the night, and I didn't have a chance to proof what I had put together in my halfhour lunch at my Bakery.

Of course innocent Villagers mind who is lynched.

Well, yes. I miss CaptainofDespair's presence among us very much.

::Glares back at SPM::

You seem to be casting a fair degree of suspicion in my direction for someone who does not think me suspicious …

But my conclusion in that post regarding your likely innocence is clear.

I am wary of anyone who suggests that we should concentrate exclusively on the Wolves.

Good point. Yet we have no clear idea how to flush one out with any confidence. That's why I say get the wolves. ... unless you have a really good sense for the werebear.

Funny how you are making a very strong accusation against arcticstorm now, shortly after he identified you as his main Werebear suspect, having (as far as I can see) never accused him previously. You now have the dubious honour of topping of my “Bear-watch” list too.

I welcome your scrutiny. As I said in a recent post, when I put up my first post for toDay, I had not read anybody else's yet, and when I saw his, I did have to smile at the irony of how Bearish my post suddenly looked. And appearances certainly do seem to matter a lot in this village. I hope content matters more. Judge my words versus arcticstorm's.

I don’t see anything “diversionary” in what Boromir has said.

Okay. At the time, apparently, I found his move toward the Bear somewhat suspicious. Now looking back it seems less so. I DO find, however, his list of Mithalwen voters to be quite telling. "One of the wolves is in that list"; obviously, he includes himself and arcticstorm.

What I find most interesting about my duo of suspects is that they both chimed in as suspicious of Mithalwen after others had done so. Then they both voted for Mithalwen after others had done so. On Day Two, the same thing turned out to be true in their votes for CoD

As a matter of fact, SPM, you seem to have a blind spot about Boromir, because he did NOT appear on your post # 200 list of those who had voted for both Mithalwen and CoD. That could be seen as suspicious, but I believe it is merely an error because you have yet to seriously suspect Boromir.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Man with Pans that would probably count as dangerous weapons if you tried to travel by plane

Well, I have no objection to you telling me why you seem innocent either ...

I don't know if you are entirely serious with your accusations (I notice that many are happily climbing the bandwagon, though) but I'm going to defend myself a little.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant – SpM’s reasoning in post #200 puts her in the spotlight.

Now, what did he say there... SpM's suspicion of me is based on his belief that one or two wolves voted for CoD yesterday. When he had decided that, he had just to finger at the voting list of day1 so it would support his view. Simple yet not very accurate (sorry).

About my "late" and "death sealing" vote for Mith: much of the discussion happens while I'm asleep. On that morning I logged on - I mean, trod to the Village Hexagon and saw that many votes had already been cast (hence the title: Good grief!).

Lalaith said: "She [Spawn] never voiced any suspicion of Mith before she voted for her." Read closer. In my post #67 I said that I think it was weird from Mith to associate lmp with the Seer when he obviously (to me) isn't one. I also agreed with Firefoot that Mith's self defense was quite over-hysterical. Besides, if a bunch of people are already accusing her why should I? I've already seen her reactions and I can think without writing everything down.

I know, I also said that Alca's suspect list was odd (Mith (wolf), lmp (ooh, are we fellow wolves!?), Gurthang). I just thought that it wasn't wise to ignore all others who hadn't acted so gross. After that I went back and reread everything. Then I decided to vote for Mith for reasons I said in my post #72.

Now that Lalaith has managed to shift some blame on me, she suggests that lmp & I are the wolves. Now, of course I can't suspect anyone because you think that I'm trying to avoid the spotlight by blaming others. Can I make a case against my "co-wolf" lmp, then? I'd like to point out that I suspected lmp to be a wolf already in my post #120. Another thing I just noticed is that Mith slightly defended him in her post #21 when she probably thought that I was accusing lmp. Could this mean that he's a wolf, too? I don't know. I rest my case.

edit: some cross posting but never mind

[arcticstorm]

I was hoping not to have to reveal this today, yet with two people seriously considering me to be a wolf, at least one of whom may be able to convince people to join his cause. I must now reveal myself to be the other sherriff.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I say we try something new. ... It's something that I would like to call as using reverse psychology, we say to do this would be way too suspicious therefor that person can't be the wolf/bear, so they go ahead and do it that way, knowing we won't cast suspicion on them.

... Laitaine .... Gil Galad - LMP/Mithalwen/Gil-Galad as wolves.

What you're talking about is a consistent strategy of double bluff, and a most daring one at that, played by all lycans. That would be binding themselves up to too tight a strategy. They would need more flexibility, don't you think?

So SPM thinks I'm a Bear and Boromir thinks I'm a wolf. Can't say I blame either one, considering we've got werewolves and werebears around. I see no point in defending against the plausibilities Boromir offers. I'll say only this: the werewolves have a statistical advantage as long as the werebear lives. They don't NEED to do anything as daring as what Boromir suggests.

Heh. The trouble with doing so much talking as I'm doing today is that the more I say, the more fodder the suspicious have of my guilt. I can't help that. But PLEASE, people, look at the cases against EVERY VILLAGER. Don't get sucked into a latest fad of who's guilty and who's not. That's what got us lynching CoD. Weigh the evidence of my words, of their words and votes. It's the best we have to go on.

Almost no suspicion, to the point where they just seem fully innocent:
1. Saucepan Man
2. Dancing Spawn
3. Arcticstorm

Funny, perhaps I'm using similar reasoning to accuse Arcticstorm and you that you're using to accuse me.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Boromir

This is why I think Gil-galad is the wolf, and not the cobbler. The cobbler doesn't have any idea who the wolves are, and with voting close, I doubt on Day 1 the cobbler would tie things up to try to take pressure of Mithalwen. It so happened that Mithalwen was a wolf, and the only person to know Mithalwen is a wolf, is the other wolves, therefor tieing the votes makes him look more wolfish then cobbleresque.

Okay. This makes sense. It's just that Gil-galad seems frankly too nonchalant to even care about being a werewolf or not. Maybe he's a wolf putting on a narcissistic act, but if he is, I guess he's got me so far convinced. However, I'm satisfied with your defense, Boromir, for reasons I won't state.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by arcticstorm

I was hoping not to have to reveal this today, yet with two people seriously considering me to be a wolf, at least one of whom may be able to convince people to join his cause. I must now reveal myself to be the other sherriff.

Okay, thank you. I was beginning to want you to reveal yourself just because the bandwaggoning seems to be gathering against Spawn and me (including Spawn!) Maybe that's being emotional instead of clearheaded, but I was beginning to desperately want a known innocent around.

And if any werewolf decides to say "No, he's not the shirriff, I am!", then you're welcome to try it. I for one will side with arcticstorm and lynch you. So go ahead and make my day.

Well. My Day's initial slate of most suspicious has pretty much been wiped clean. Back to the drawing board.

Oh, and Arcticstorm, please accept my apology for forcing your hand. It was really too early for you to come forward, as there are too many werecreatures still alive. I'm sorry, fellow Ords, to have been instrumental in blowing what little chance we have of beating the odds.

By the way, it still seems really leaping to think that my vote for Gurthang on Day one makes me wolvish. You are quite right to say that such a thing is way too daring for a werewolf, especially in this particular game fraught with werewolves, werebear and cobbler, for them to have to mess around with that. They don't need to, more's the pity.

Back to the bakery for me, and I will vote very late. You won't be reading anything from me until very late. Off to make more custard pies, should the chance be available to throw them on the morrow.....

And if I die before I'm waked
I wonder what werething his bloodthirst has slaked?

[Meneltarmacil]

And if I die before I'm waked
I wonder what werething his bloodthirst has slaked?

Is this a not-so-cryptic hinte that we oughte to looke out for Laitaine? Or is this Knighte reading too muche into thy poste?

[Gurthang]

LMP, despite your vote for me on DAY 1, I am only mildly suspicious of you, and not at all for your vote. What makes me suspicious are your mistakes here:

Originally posted by LMP (post #141)
my mildly suspicious list:

Boromir: Is too aggressive in his attacks against Gurthang over the in-character animal rights thing.

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

To which I answered:

Originally posted by Gurthang (post #146)
littlemanpoet, I just want to point out to you that you voted for me yesterday for about that same reason.

Following that you said:

Originally posted by LMP (post #211)
Gurthang, earlier you reminded me that Boromir and Encaitare were only doing what I had already done, accusing someone for being in character. The difference is that I was the first, and they bandwaggoned on my idea. If it had been the other way around, I'd be the suspicious one.

Which is also wrong, as Boromir pointed out:

Originally posted by Boromir (post #216)
Another thing mistaken lmp. In post #2 Alcarillo voiced some concern for Gurthang. My post after #3 voiced stronger concerns. And continued until Gurthang defended his stance in which case I turned my decision towards Mithalwen

These mistakes could be simply that: mistakes. Yet they also look like twisting words; something a wolf would do. I kind of think it was just mistakes, but I am watching you because of the above statements.

Yet I am still more suspicious of Gil-Galad. That first day vote against me seems like an attempt to change the momentum, and was not really explained at all. He has not said anything since I last posted and a lot of his posts before that confused me. I want to hear from him again, especially since I think I will vote for him again toDAY.

And, if Gil-Galad would turn out to be a wolf, then I will be looking closer at LMP, since he, Gil and Mith all voted for me on DAY 1. Boromir's reverse psychology idea makes sense. (but that will be only if Gil-Galad is a wolf)

[Lalaith]

Oh dear. I'm really sorry about arcticstorm outing himself. My philosophical friend, I was pretty sure who you were, and while any defence I could give you would probably have done you more harm than good given the suspicion I've been under, I had a feeling SpM also had worked this out and would have tried to protect you (which is incidentally one of the reasons I was inclined to believe in his, SpM's, innocence).
It's not inconceivable that Lmp had the same suspicion as I did about arcticstorm and set about flushing him out on purpose with his accusations. Ho hum.

[Boromir88]

LMP, yes a double-bluff is bold, I wouldn't try using one, but who knows. To let you know (if it's any comfort) I'm nowhere near thinking about voting for you for any reason, atleast yet. I do have suspicions on you, but I do read what you have to say, as you have things to offer. I also agree that it would be deeply unwise just to look at one suspect. Yesterday, before I voted I had three people in mind, and toiled with the decision of sleeping overnight, and getting up early to vote. My concern was I wouldn't get up in time, therefor I decided to vote right before I went to bed (11 pm), and I had to make the decision then. Sadly, and regrettably, it was the wrong choice. I agree it would be foolish to be set on one person.

Lalaith, I won't deny my involvement in Captain's lynching. To do so would be utterly stupid, as I was one of the vocal voices in his lynching. But, I did say that my idea of "innocence not having to prove their innocence. Only guilty people stoutly deny their innocence because they have something to fear" might not work.

I think using the indian example again, I mean I don't know about you. I may not have lied but I would certainly be afraid of a hot iron being put in my mouth, that could get someone scared, therefor their tongue burns and they were not a liar, just feered the hot iron.

Also, I offer possible solutions, whether people decide to agree with them or not is up to them. So, while I was instrumental in being one to voice my suspicion about Captain of Despair, I would not take full blame, nor accept taking full blame for I was only one of the several to decide to lynch him. Obviously others found sufficient belief in his lynching. As it turned out, we had the wrong person.

[Boromir88]

I'm posting again to step out and speak towards arcticstorm.

Tis a noble thing for you to do, to step out and declare your identity. I would have waited, as I didn't see much to suggest you were guilty (atleast I wouldn't have voted for you), but that does not lessen your honor. You will be missed, good sir.

[Gil-Galad]

you know what i just realized, since that i'm a suspect, the wolves or bear could kill off one of the villagers that are suspecting me to frame me and save their own hide, i great tactic that we kinda helped the wolves set up...

[Meneltarmacil]

Gil-Galad, thou hast been extraordinarily quiete recentely. I woulde have expected thee to vote for Captain, but thou didst not. I cannot comprehend what thou mightst be, though I still believe "Wolfe" is ye best answer. Do something suspiciouse and when people suspect thee, hide and say little...

My minde is somewhat blanke at this pointe. arcticstorm, if thou hast any insighte as a Sherriff, I aske thee to share it.

[Laitaine]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Also, I offer possible solutions, whether people decide to agree with them or not is up to them. So, while I was instrumental in being one to voice my suspicion about Captain of Despair, I would not take full blame, nor accept taking full blame for I was only one of the several to decide to lynch him. Obviously others found sufficient belief in his lynching. As it turned out, we had the wrong person.

Ah, but when I voted Alcarillo, it was said that I was scheming
Clearly, I was wrong, but all suspicion was not leaving.
Make no mistake, I’m on your side, ‘twas a very simple err,
To lynch you for a simple slip? I would never dare.
The ones that find you guilty, I think they are in the wrong
Now, I must go run and errand, so I’ll pause here in my song.

[Laitaine]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Is this a not-so-cryptic hinte that we oughte to looke out for Laitaine? Or is this Knighte reading too muche into thy poste?

I wonder much the same as you--but it may not be.
I notice that the wolves, too, write wicked poetry.

*sob, burying face in hands*

A saddened place the world is where art is simply jeered
My once noble profession is now, by wicked, seared!