WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Morsul the Dark]

Part 3- did I mention I'm so glad there's only 4 pages two of which are practically banter.

Ozban, "Oz"- -

Mors - Really active, might be just his style, might be trying to confuse us newcomers.

I don't try that usually just sort of happens anyway...
FInds Gil suspicious or more than Nerwen anyway vote's Cab finds his vote opportunistic Another vote like Nog's seemed to be pretty heavily going one way then switched it up

Rikae, "Rick"- Hates the banter, finds cop most suspcious, feels used by Cab and/or Pom votes Mccab finds his vote the most opportunistic. Seems pretty innocent

satansaloser2005, "Sal"-Lot of banter. Defends Gil Votes Pom Seems innocent also one of the first to point out Pom's very weird post...

Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz"- Showed up late, voted Pom after not having much time to think will get a pass for now.

Volo, "Vol"- finds Nerwen most suspicious and votes her. seems on the level.

*headdesk* thank god...

[Boromir88]

I haven't reread the thread yet...but general statements to frame the start of the new day:

sally looks better than anyone else, I would actually move her into the trusting/innocent/won't vote for category.

Shasta, Inzil, and Lottie look fairly trusty lads and lass as well. Given Pom's weird post "watch the Cop voters" and dare I say a slip, I suppose a wizard mate may have felt a good time to bus Pom's lynch. The problem with that interpretation is it happened relatively quickly and with Nerwen, McCaber, and Cop already with multiple votes, I would expect the wizards to spare Pom for the day, and address it the following day by having 1 or more of them start pushing for a Pom lynch today. So, the Pom-voters look clean to me and not wizard-on-wizard voting.

Those who tried to put forward one of the other candidates (Volo, Nog, Ozban) look the worst, at the start of today.

[Gil-Galad]

Looking at Pom's reaction to when Cab voted the same feels like she paniced at that, almost weirdly. I honestly want to look a Cop now. Here is my theory:

Pom was trying to be a sneaky wizer and gave a vote for Cop, thinking that vote will have nothing to come of it and evade suspicion on Pom and Cop being Wizers. Then Cab voted for Cop. Pom paniced, fearing that if more people vote for WizerCop(keeping the hooliganwizers off the streets har har), Cop will be lynched.

That is my best theory on why Pom had that turn of face, like a plan suddenly backfiring and wanting to draw attention to Cab instead of Cop, as we see how Cab almost got lynched instead.

This leads to Green, Nog, Oz and Rik being added to my suspects list, if they were trying to save their fellow wizer by drawing the votes onto Cab.

Nog is least suspected, since he just threw his vote and it had little effect besides state his intention to suspect Cab.

I just have to look at Green, Oz and Rik closer now toDay if I feel they smell like a wizer, but I won't jump to conclusions. Same goes with Cop, my prime suspect in this plot.

[Morsul the Dark]

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

[Morsul the Dark]

Sorry double post.

IF Lottie is a wizard that MAY clear Nog as Lottie has started steering into him so far toNight

will recheck his posts.

[Coppermirror]

Blimey, wizzers are tasty as can be. I could eat 'em all week, I could. An' congrats to our Insomniac troll; they're so clever a troll I can 'ardly believe they're one of us.

*ahem*

Very nice narration there, mods! I like the way you used bits of dialogue from the Day. A bit sad there probably won't be such good lines toDay, with the banter mostly over.

There's a lot to analyse in the posts from yesterDay. Though I thought the odds were good that someone would go for me after my last post yesterDay, I wasn't expecting quite this much, so I'll respond to one or two points now. I'm really tired, so I'll have to come back later to do any proper analysis of the posts and votes from yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Thoughts Part 1...

Coppermirror, "Cop"- - Voted early for Boro who had only to two straight up banter posts. Certainly to watch.

The deadline in this game is one where almost every time I'm going to have to vote very early. (Not toDay, incidentally. I can be around for the deadline this time.) I was concerned that I might get targeted for voting early, so well before the game's start I made it very clear in the admin post that that was the situation. So, when I'm looking through the posts from toDay and yesterDay when I get back later, I'll be curious to see if anyone is making a big thing of my vote being an early one.

On Day 1, when all there has been so far is a lot of banter that there doesn't seem to be anything much in for serious analysis, and you have to vote immediately, what are you going to do? The only thing to do, short of abstaining from voting or deciding via random number generator (both of which are things I would hate to do) is to look at each person's posts and judge by how suspicious you feel about each of them. Boro's posts were the ones I felt most suspicious of, so Boro got my vote. I didn't have a lot of choice in voting in that way yesterDay, but I did hope that it would at least stir up some discussion of substance. It leading to a wizzard slipping up and getting caught that very day was rather better than I expected, though!

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

That is my best theory on why Pom had that turn of face, like a plan suddenly backfiring and wanting to draw attention to Cab instead of Cop, as we see how Cab almost got lynched instead.

Gil, I don't think your theory stands up very well at all. (In fact, it might even be suspicious itself...) If you look through the posts before Pom's vote, a number of other people had already voiced serious suspicions of me. Accordingly, Pom's vote for me could not have been an empty vote for somebody who was not under any real suspicion.

But, I am quite curious about why Pom made that turn of opinion yesterDay too. I'll look at it a bit more later, but I can see a number of possibilities off the top of my head.

Pom could have:
- seen an excellent opportunity to go after McCaber that Day. If he's innocent, then after voting for me, proposing an extra innocent as a target is something in the best interests of the wizzards. They want as many innocents under suspicion as possible.
- or, it could have been that but that she was setting up McCaber for a target toDay rather than yesterDay.
- or McCaber is a wizzard, and Pom felt that the vote bandwagon was making them both look fishy, and she was trying to disassociate herself.
- Pom knew that I'm not a wizzard, so she knew that if I'd got lynched, people would look carefully at those who voted for me.
- ...and because she cross-posted with McCaber, she became the second person to vote for me rather than the first, and could have feared that that would make her look suspicious later on. By trying to back off from me, she could have been trying to prevent danger to herself.

I've considered the possibility that she might have made a genuine attempt to stop people voting from me, but that only makes sense if she thinks I'm the cobbler, and I don't think I said anything which could possibly make her think I was, so I'm discounting that.

I'll have to look at all the possibilities and maybe some more in more depth later when I'm less tired, because there could be some valuable info there on whether or not McCaber is innocent. See you all later.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

The deadline in this game is one where almost every time I'm going to have to vote very early. (Not toDay, incidentally. I can be around for the deadline this time.) I was concerned that I might get targeted for voting early, so well before the game's start I made it very clear in the admin post that that was the situation. So, when I'm looking through the posts from toDay and yesterDay when I get back later, I'll be curious to see if anyone is making a big thing of my vote being an early one.
.

Yeah the deadline in this game is pretty rough for me too usually falling in my work day. I don't find an issue with your voting early, look at my own early vote. Your vote sticks out for me because you seemed to picked Boro out of a litany of banter posts to vote for.

[Nerwen]

So. Wizgranate's famous post at #103 was striking enough to get her Fenrissed out of the blue- I don't anyone was even considering her before that.

It looks like panic, but why? The possibilities I can come up with are (in no particular order):

1. [1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.
   
   [2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.
   
   [3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.
   
   [4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)
   
   [5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

Any of these reasons is still quite weak on its own though- note that 1,2 and 5 carry the obvious objection, "why didn't she think of that before?". Perhaps a combination?
EDIT: formatting.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab

(Underlining mine) Sorry, what? Since when do we know Cab is innocent? The only reason I can think of for you to assume Cab is innocent is if you *know* he is - because he isn't one of your packmates.

Quick disclaimer: I hit the quote button on the selection above before I saw the quote below.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

...well, that escalated quickly. So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

All in all, I don't want to knee-jerk all over this thread, but

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

Meh, could be. You'd think she could have avoided voting for a mate entirely though, if she'd wanted. Then again, you could be right and it was a gamble gone awry.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

IF Lottie is a wizard that MAY clear Nog as Lottie has started steering into him so far toNight

Yes. along the lines of her vote, she surely would have come up with others to suspect if she and Nog were mates.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So. Wizgranate's famous post at #103 was striking enough to get her Fenrissed out of the blue- I don't anyone was even considering her before that.

It looks like panic, but why? The possibilities I can come up with are (in no particular order):

1. [1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.
   
   [2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.
   
   [3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.
   
   [4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)
   
   [5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

Any of these reasons is still quite weak on its own though- note that 1,2 and 5 carry the obvious objection, "why didn't she think of that before?". Perhaps a combination?

Any of those could be the case. Definitely a strange situation. I think #1 is unlikely, as that shouldn't have been a major issue for a baddie.

x/d with Lottie

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

Like I said, you certainly had other options, so all in all I don't think you're my top suspect toDay/Night.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

(Underlining mine) Sorry, what? Since when do we know Cab is innocent? The only reason I can think of for you to assume Cab is innocent is if you *know* he is - because he isn't one of your packmates.

Quick disclaimer: I hit the quote button on the selection above before I saw the quote below.




...well, that escalated quickly. So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

All in all, I don't want to knee-jerk all over this thread, but

ah but see the reason is all in the timing.

A wizard, I doubt, would be the first to vote for a packmate.

The third would be highly risky as that was the tying vote

The fourth vote was the clincher so it would be odd for a wizard to so readily shove pom across the line.

So if there's a wizard there it's the second vote, you. That's the thinking anyway.

As for innocent Cab I'd think it's pretty clear my interretation was in the form of hypothetical. A theory I ran with with many of the voters for example if nog is guilty cab is innocent.

x
ed withZil

[McCaber]

A Look Back at Pomegranate; or, The Death of a Wizard. Warning: all contents are my subjective reading and interpretation of the text in question.

Post 4: fluff IC. Tells us nothing about motives.
Post 15: rules recap to try and be helpful. Questioning Morsul about his actions in the previous 10 posts and an exhortation to conversation. Seems to be mostly laying groundwork for a defence against a possible Morsul attack later.
Post 92: doesn't suspect Nerwen or Gil after their spat. Comes down much harder on CM. Probably trying to butter up the first two parties and make her seem more reasonable to them by trying to see their posts in the absolute best light.
Post 95: misreads Nog accidentally.
Post 99: likes Rikae's behavior, even though I am about to say the same things and get raged at with the fire of a thousand suns. Contradictory posting is suspicious posting. Does go after Brin a bit, but this line of though is quickly dropped.
Post 100: corrects the mistake she made in post 95.
Post 102: votes for CM for much the same reasons as I did.
Post 103: notices my vote, panics. Why the panic? Was she trying to protect CM for some reason and in that post dissuaded any more wizards from voting that direction?

And that was the last we heard of her.

EDIT: X'd x 4.

[Nerwen]

And, of course, the other big question is: did Pom's comrades bus her or not?

I can't see why she would have appeared obviously doomed to them at any point yesterDay- if there was wolf-on-wolf voting there, it's more likely to have come at a time when it still seemed relatively safe, i.e. from Zil or Lottie. Not that you can count on this- my king, for example, has been known to bus his packmates quite gratuitously, precisely because it "clears" him. Anyway, it seems probable to me that there was at least some attempt to save Pom.
EDIT:x'd since my last post. Edit 2:fixed non sequitur.

[McCaber]

If there was an effort by the wizards to save Pom, it most likely took the form of a more vicious attack against another target. Volo was the only person who actively defended Pom, and everyone else shunted their rage to me or on CM.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

ah but see the reason is all in the timing.

A wizard, I doubt, would be the first to vote for a packmate.

The third would be highly risky as that was the tying vote

The fourth vote was the clincher so it would be odd for a wizard to so readily shove pom across the line.

So if there's a wizard there it's the second vote, you. That's the thinking anyway

How in Middle-earth does that alone justify your making Lottie top suspect?. We don't, after all, know if there was any wolf-on-wolf voting.

Meanwhile, as I said, it's likely there was some attempt to save Pom, and I think that's where we should be looking first.
Edit: x'd with McCaber.

[Morsul the Dark]

Nerwen may I quote you from another game(I memorized it because it made me laugh)

"Morsul plays in a bubble"

MY logic is sound for me. I have other suspicions but none quite so strong as that of Lottie I shared why, and how I came to that conclusion. If you read my thorough(every player mentioned commented on summed up) you'll see many have suspicious or watching added as an adendum there are some of course less suspicious also noted.

I'm saying my thoughts aloud you may agree or disagree.

I think the answer is helicopters.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

][1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.

[2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.

[3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.

[4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)

[5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

I'm thinking #4 is the most likely possibility. I'd say McCaber's vote would look more incriminating by creating a bandwagon with a second vote than Pom's. If it weren't for that comment, I don't think her vote would've struck me as suspicious, so I don't see why she'd panic because of a second vote. If Copper was guilty, it'd be safer for her to stay quiet; if Copper did get lynched it'd make Pom look more innocent. Situation #3 is possible, but I don't find it very likely and I just can't see #5 happening.

[Brinniel]

As for the Pom voters...

There were already multiple bandwagons against other players and it was only the first Day in a large village, so while I won't completely rule it out, I just don't find wolf-on-wolf votes all that likely. If there was, it'd more probable for it to be one of the earlier two votes. Sally and Shasta would have to be very bold to throw a packmate under the bus like that so early in the game.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

MY logic is sound for me. I have other suspicions but none quite so strong as that of Lottie I shared why, and how I came to that conclusion. If you read my thorough(every player mentioned commented on summed up) you'll see many have suspicious or watching added as an adendum there are some of course less suspicious also noted.

But Morsul, you've actually described her as your "top suspect", which at this point seems awfully premature when the reasoning is based entirely on her being the second person to vote for a wolf. (At least, if you've got something more concrete, you haven't shared it with the rest of us.) There may of course have been wolf-on-wolf voting yesterDay, but I wouldn't say the situation required it.

[Nerwen]

By the way- I don't think anyone else has pointed this out-
here Pom speaks of Cop as a male, which unless I'm very much mistaken is incorrect. That argues against their being packmates (though not conclusively).

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By the way- I don't think anyone else has pointed this out-
here Pom speaks of Cop as a male, which unless I'm very much mistaken is incorrect. That argues against their being packmates (though not conclusively).

If we're accepting that as evidence, I don't know either Pom's or Cop's pronouns of choice. It made writing some of my earlier posts rather difficult, I can tell you.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by McCaber

If we're accepting that as evidence, I don't know either Pom's or Cop's pronouns of choice. It made writing some of my earlier posts rather difficult, I can tell you.

I actually don't know whether it should be accepted as evidence. It comes under much the same meta-reasoning category as someone being (or claiming to be) ignorant of the rules, the number of villains, or anything else a wolf "ought" to know.

[Nerwen]

Cop, I see that you'd already (#166) given much the same theories about Pom's behaviour that I did a couple of posts later, leaving out, of course, those that assume your guilt. However-

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I've considered the possibility that she might have made a genuine attempt to stop people voting from me, but that only makes sense if she thinks I'm the cobbler, and I don't think I said anything which could possibly make her think I was, so I'm discounting that.

Really? Mightn't she have thought that because of the same things that made various other players see you as suspicious?

[Coppermirror]

Back and reading...

[Coppermirror]

Votes from yesterDay:

Copper -> Boro
Morsul -> Kath
Brinniel -> Nerwen
Gil -> Nerwen (2)
McCaber -> Copper
Pom ->Copper (2)
Rikae ->McCaber
Greenie -> McCaber (2)
Inzil -> Pom
Ozban -> McCaber (3)
Loslote -> Pom (2)
Boro -> Copper (3)
Volo -> Nerwen (3)
Sally -> Pom (3)
4-way tie on 3 votes
Shasta -> Pom(4)
Nog -> McCaber(4)

Did not vote: Bane, Kath, Nerwen.
Did not post: nobody.

So that's quite an interesting voting situation, with only two people voting outside 4 main candidates. (And those two voters, Morsul and myself, were the first two voters.) I have the impression that the Nerwen voters may be going under the radar after Pom's mistake (which is connected to the other two candidates yesterDay) so I'll pay some extra attention to them later.

Originally Posted by McCaber

If we're accepting that as evidence, I don't know either Pom's or Cop's pronouns of choice. It made writing some of my earlier posts rather difficult, I can tell you.

I'm a she, and I think the same goes for Pom, but I could be mistaken.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Really? Mightn't she have thought that because of the same things that made various other players see you as suspicious?

I don't see what kind of benefit a cobbler would get out of a vote like that one, although if you think otherwise then perhaps Pom might have thought so too. But I do think it's unlikely she did. Pom wrote a whole paragraph about my vote in her post #92 as set-up, then voted at #102 while saying that she had to leave now. She must have done that without thinking there was anything cobblerish there...but then she notices something back in my posts and changes her mind, right after her vote crosses with McCaber? I reckon that if thinking I could be a cobbler was her reason, she would already have considered it beforehand.

Since Pom was reasonably active yesterDay and nobody seemed to really suspect her before her slip up, analysing her and the way people interacted with her could be fruitful, so I'm going to write an analysis on her next.

[Brinniel]

Nerwen: No vote (does she ever vote on Day 1?) YesterDay she fired back at Gil for his vote against her. While it was defensive, I think her reasoning behind it is justified. ToDay, I do like her contribution so far.

Morsul: Voted for Kath. His vote was early when there was little substance, so I won't hold it against him. When coming to conclusions, I find his logic rather odd, but I think it's really just his playing style which tells us nothing of his role.

Sally: Voted for Pom. Most of her posts are banter, which isn't helpful. But her late vote for Pom makes me inclined to think she's innocent.

McCaber: Voted for Copper. His vote actually didn't stand out as very suspicious to me. But I can see why some might be suspicious because he could've been seen as a baddie trying to get away with an easy vote against someone who was already gathering some attention for her poor reasoning behind her vote. Plus, I agree he voted a bit premature. Due to that statement Pom made after his vote, I think I'm leaning toward him being more innocent than not.

Gil: Voted for Nerwen. Okay, his vote had poor reasoning behind it and I can understand why others find it and his defensive behavior following suspicious. But like Morsul, his playing style does have a habit of looking suspicious regardless of his role.

Inzil: Voted for Pom. His vote might've been the safest, were he a baddie. But again, I think it less likely that there were wolf-on-wolf votes at this stage. And anyway, his behavior doesn't strike me as suspicious.

Nogrod: Voted for McCaber. His careful and non-committed suspicion of Pom is worrying. Based on his posts, it seemed to make more sense that he would vote for her. But then he votes for McCaber while at the same time agreeing that Pom was a good lynch choice. The only thing is that if he did believe the lynch had already been decided, I think it would be safer for a baddie to vote for a packmate. Unless an evil Nogrod truly thought another player would swoop in and vote McCaber and he could save Pom. While that was a possibility, Bane was the only non-voter around at the time, it looked like he was planning to vote Pom, which would've sealed the deal...all the more reason it'd be safer for a baddie to vote a packmate at that point. I'm not sure about Nogrod, but he's definitely one to watch.

Rikae: Voted for McCaber. Her reasoning behind her vote looks genuine to me. From her posts, I like that her opinions are formed by her own impressions. Meaning that she thinks for herself and her thoughts aren't at all influenced by others' opinions, which makes me feel good about her right now.

Volo: Voted for Nerwen. He says he's unsure about Nerwen and that McCaber is on the "naughty side," then later decides Nerwen's most suspicious (over McCaber and Pom) without a reason to explain why. While he might have tied her, it really didn't look like anyone else would vote her at this point. This could be a strategy for a baddie to not make a throwaway vote, but at the same time, avoid participating in a lynch that could be likely to occur. A bit suspicious to me.

Boromir: Voted for Copper. His thought process leading up to his vote seems quite reasonable to me. So far, I don't see any reason to suspect him.

Copper: Voted for Boromir. Would Pom vote for a fellow mate? It's always possible, but I do doubt it. So she's looking more likely to be innocent to me.

Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

Loslote: Voted for Pom. I don't see anything suspicious in her posts and her vote makes her look even less suspicious. I'm leaning towards probably innocent.

Bane: No vote. He was around less than ten minutes until deadline, then disappeared. Any reason why? His suspicion of Pom could speak in his favor, but then not actually following through with a vote does not. I'd like to hear from him.

Greenie: Voted for McCaber. I think she's the only McCaber voter who had some reservations about him from an earlier post (before his vote). Based on her reasoning and interactions with McCaber, her vote does look like an honest one to me. So far, I'm thinking she looks more on the innocent side.

Kath: No vote. Only posted banter. Some might try to read into it, but I don't think there's really anything to read into. But the question is...where did she go?

Shasta: Voted for Pom. He hardly posted, but his vote which put our baddie in the lead makes it seem unlikely that he isn't innocent.

Phew...that's a lot of people.

[Nerwen]

Nogalysis

#81.
Doesn't like votes so far, especially Gil's for me.

#97.
Still doesn't like Gil's vote, but partly accepts his explanation that it was a "test".

Originally Posted by Nog

Then again, bringing on some pressure by exactly giving a second vote to someone that early could be reasonable tactics to see whether the dog barks the stick hits...

This sounds reasonable, but ignores how late Gil's explanation was in coming, and also the wildness of his claim that his "test" had in fact been a success. Hasty reading? A baddie trying to keep his options open?

#98.
Explains to Pom (#95) that he was saying "thee" not "three" in his poem, and was thus not confused about the number of Wizards.

#97.
Discusses the mechanics of suspicion and bandwaggons. Will neither defend nor suspect Cop "at the moment". Warns us all to beware those who "hold their horses and only have nice things to say about other players".

#124.
Pom's infamous post is "pretty natural" from an innocent, though it could also be the work of a wolf trying to "look considerate".

#129.
Replying to Boro's accusation of being "non-commital" (#123), says he has only had time to "skim through and make some fast general comments".

#134, #135.
Greenie is suspiciously plausible and over-confident, making too detailed a case for her vote: "the wolves, well the Wizards, know how to use their time unlike us". Suspects Gil for his belated explanation. Suspects Pom "a little" because of her post at #124. Not suspicious of the early voters. Most worried about "all the people who fly under our radars at the moment... like Volo, Sally, Lottie, Zil".

#140.

With Cab I'm most bothered about his last answer where he says he voted early because he doesn't like the last ten minute surprises while a) voting hours before the DL, and b) still had over an hour to hang around and post after his vote.

I need to check back about Copper next, as to how bad his vote was to compare to these later developements.

Reasoning in this post is perfectly valid- in fact I agree with it- however, at 30 minutes to go it is Nog's first ever mention of the player he winds up voting.

#147.
Disagrees with the "meme" that Cop claimed her vote was well-substantiated.

#148. Vote-post. (2 minutes before DL.)

Originally Posted by Nog

I'll add...

++ McCaber

So it's Pom now (first with as many votes) with which I agree - so any further votes could be telling us something.

Okay, this one's really weird. Firstly, despite having been fairly active and having discussed various other players, Nog had mentioned McCaber only once before, and not in a way that seemed to indicate particularly strong suspicion. Secondly, if he agrees with the lynch of Pom, why vote someone else? Thirdly- and most significantly- with this post, unless I miscounted, he is actually tying McCaber with Pom, with the outcome still undecided- even though he says "it's Pom now".

Conclusion: Some of this is standard Nog, like his warning against submarines. Some I would accept as legitimate from a player in a hurry due to RL pressures. Overall, though, I think he looks pretty bad. No smoking gun here, but the whole pattern could well fit either a vacillating cobbler or wolf hoping to save his fellow without committing himself too far.

EDIT:X'd with Cop and Brinn.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Nerwen: No vote (does she ever vote on Day 1?) YesterDay she fired back at Gil for his vote against her. While it was defensive, I think her reasoning behind it is justified. ToDay, I do like her contribution so far.

Thing is, I really don't think I was "defensive". I said I thought Gil's post looked bad for what I believe were purely objective reasons.

Which brings me to something else. "Defensive" is, or has been, a bit of a magic word in Werewolf- in fact in ancient times, when we were all less sophisticated, it used to be quite possible for wolves to get innocents lynched by the simple means of (1) attacking them, and (2) labelling any response whatever as "defensive". Well, Gil hasn't played in so long that I think you could say he comes from "ancient times". It strikes me that, if not simply paranoid, some of his comments sound like a rather clumsy attempt at what I used to call the "witchhunt" technique:

Originally Posted by Gil

...you being so defensive and afraid that the two votes for you will spell your end reveals something. Are you hiding something Ner?

I mean, how do you get that out of:

Originally Posted by Me

This may sound like an "omgus" post- but honestly, I think Gil's post there looks really bad. He says he's voting me so as not to "add another name to this growing list"- a list (at the time of posting) of three names in a village of eighteen.

or

Originally Posted by Me

I know, I know, people who never vote on Day One are a disgrace, aren't we- er, I mean they?

But seriously- Gil, at the point when three people each have one vote, you're certainly not limited to them only, and when you claim you are, it looks like opportunism followed by hand washing

–that being all I had said at that point?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cop

I'm a she, and I think the same goes for Pom, but I could be mistaken.

She is, and I actually knew you were too– I was just being facetious with that "unless I'm much mistaken". Here's the thing: I do think it's unlikely she would have made that mistake had you two in fact been packmates– at the same time, though, it's really not that advisable to clear a player just through meta-reasoning: you never know what might have been happening behind the scenes. I'm wondering if I should have brought it up in the first place.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Quote:

I don't see what kind of benefit a cobbler would get out of a vote like that one, although if you think otherwise then perhaps Pom might have thought so too. But I do think it's unlikely she did. Pom wrote a whole paragraph about my vote in her post #92 as set-up, then voted at #102 while saying that she had to leave now. She must have done that without thinking there was anything cobblerish there...but then she notices something back in my posts and changes her mind, right after her vote crosses with McCaber? I reckon that if thinking I could be a cobbler was her reason, she would already have considered it beforehand.

Well, yes– I argued that myself here. But Pom's behaviour there is very weird anyway, however you explain it.

[Coppermirror]

Pom analysis/recap, page 1:

- Pom has the second post, with banter.
- Morsul lists Pom as "tends to be suspicious to me" in his first impressions list.
- Pom recaps the rules, and then asks Morsul about what his statement about her means for how he'll treat her. Then encourages people to post more and get discussion going.
- Morsul replies that it means he'll avoid knee-jerk reactions.
- Morsul says "Pom's suggestion seems to be fairly genuine little information is better than no information." That's a bit odd.
- Inzil comments on the above, saying it was more ordinary Day 1 stuff than a suggestion.
- Nerwen comments in banter-style about Pom's lack of troll-speak giving her a headache.
- McCaber makes a recap post. He characterises Inzil's post as having defended Pom, and Nerwen's as "more suspicion of Pom".

I have to wonder why McCaber was putting that sort of spin on those posts. To me, Inzil's comment had nothing to do with defending Pom, and Nerwen's looked like banter rather than real suspicion. Why the focus on Pom?

Pom, page 2:

- Brinniel gives three people including Pom points for effort. Later thinks that "Pom seems okay as well, for now" when going through opinions, and that was reasonable at the time.

Pom, page 3:

- Pom posts her first round of impressions. On Nerwenvs Gil, doesn't think that it means either is guilty. About Gil, says that he seems more like a typical first-day-lynch victim. Then she goes ahead with saying I'm looking much worse than either of them, with theories about motives.

- Pom misreads Nog's poem as having the wrong number of wizards in, and considers whether it could be a tactic for appearing innocent, as she would think that Nog would check the rules. Then thinks it would be strange for him to use that sort of strategy and that she doesn't know what to think, so will just inform.

This has to be either a strategy to throw mild suspicion on an innocent, or feigned suspicion to hide a wizard-mate. I've no idea which at this point.

- Pom says her gut feeling for Rikae is good, but her feelings for Brin don't hold up so well on second readings, regarding Brin's suspicion of Nerwen. Says of the latter that "even though I wouldn't say it makes Ner happily innocent in my eyes, I wouldn't see it as suspicious, more the opposite".

It's hard to say what this means. Maybe something will pop out later.

- Pom says she has to vote now and so votes for me, saying there isn't time to look for subtleties in other posts. Says she doesn't like Brin's vote and will be keeping an eye on her, but will give her a pass for today as she has another suspect (me) and she likes that Brin was making an effort.

What does this mean for Brin...? I'm inclined to think that it's more likely to suggest that Brin is innocent than not. It looks as if she's saving her up for later or trying to encourage later votes (as the day...night...was young). On the other hand, I can't see anyone else criticising Brin at that point.

- Posts saying she now doesn't know what to make of McCaber, with wonderings about whether he's jumping on a bandwagon. She now wants us to watch those who vote for me. Sally jumps immediately on the latter statement, followed by Inzil and McCaber. (And it didn't go down with anyone else well either.)

- Rikae doesn't like Pom or McCab's votes.

- Greenie thinks Pom and Cab's votes look a tad opportunistic, the latter more so. Later, in response to Bane, thinks that Pom must have known that her statement would sound incongruous.

Pom, page 4:

- Loslote says that "Pom feels like she's trying to be reasonable and agreeable while actually being nothing of the sort" and is her top suspect at present.

- Nog thinks that Pom could easily have made that statement as an innocent, but goes on to say that then again, a wizard could have done that to try to look considerate, worrying that her vote wasn't as safe as she thought and trying to downplay bandwagoning.

- Inzil votes Pom, for the vote and her remark.

- Loslote finds the three waves of suspicion too easy, and votes Pom as she suspects her and this is an alternative to the bandwagons.

- Volo thinks Pom feels more genuine than Nerwen and McCaber.

- Nog suspects Pom a little, because of her remark.

- Sally votes Pom for attempted bandwagoning.

- Bane says Pom is his top suspect, but that he might not vote this time.

- Shasta shows up and casts the deciding vote for Pom, on grounds of gut feelings and bandwagoning.

- Nog agrees with a Pom lynch, but votes McCaber, thinking that future votes could tell us something. That's a bit odd, given that only two people had yet to vote at that point.

So based on the above, I'm more likely to think that Brin is innocent than not. Nog's posts might have been a subtle wizard-attempt to save Pom, but I don't see why he would bother doing so. I'll have to think about this more. Sally jumped immediately on Pom's remark and seemed very innocent all along. It could have been a very canny wizard's tactic to put in the first kick to a ship they thought was sure to sink, but still...drawing immediate attention to another wizard, on Day 1, when there were other candidates for voting? That's risky enough for me to assume she's more likely to be innocent, although I must admit I've never seen a wolf Sally and have no idea how she's likely to behave.

The way McCaber phrased things in post #29 does make me a bit suspicious, but it's not enough to let me draw any conclusions. My impression at this point is that Pom made her remark because she was worried of being seen as jumping on a bandwagon. I still have to work out whether and what that means for McCaber's status.

While looking through I noticed that some people were suspicious of me not just for my vote but for "looking helpful", apparently in post #56 where I recapped things so far. I'd like to point out, as Nerwen did, that that sort of post is pretty normal for me at that point of the game. If all there is is banter, I still look at the banter and try to see if anything stands out. That sort of post is mostly to help me think through things. In post #56, I wasn't able to find anything there of interest during the time I had available.

And now I'm going for a while, because this post took me two hours to write.

Edit: cross posted with Nerwen.

[Coppermirror]

Oh, and a correction to my post above. When I said that when Nog voted, only two other people had yet to vote, I was mistaken. It was actually three, which means his choice made a bit more sense.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Oh, and a correction to my post above. When I said that when Nog voted, only two other people had yet to vote, I was mistaken. It was actually three, which means his choice made a bit more sense.

Yes, but one of them was me.

But that's not the real problem- it's that Nog both speaks of the lynch as already decided: "So it's Pom now (first with as many votes)" and of what "any further votes" could tell us. A real brain-twister, that post is.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay, this one's really weird. Firstly, despite having been fairly active and having discussed various other players, Nog had mentioned McCaber only once before, and not in a way that seemed to indicate particularly strong suspicion. Secondly, if he agrees with the lynch of Pom, why vote someone else? Thirdly- and most significantly- with this post, unless I miscounted, he is actually tying McCaber with Pom, with the outcome still undecided- even though he says "it's Pom now".

You know what? This actually makes sense as cobbler behavior, assuming he thought you, Nerwen, were a wolf. With you as one of the bandwagon options, he ties two others (Pom's and Cabbie's), and leaves your options open (to save a packmate, bus one, whatever you wanted to do).

Of course, this scenario does have a pretty slim chance of being accurate, but even disregarding his hypothetical reasoning about Nerwen, I think Nog's behavior really makes more sense as cobbleric than wizardly.

[Gil-Galad]

Just popping in till I have to leave for classes, The trolls that I want to watch haven't really posted and I was gonna make an argument on Brin to why she voted Nerve and is now a staunch defender of her today, but I answered that question myself because she didn't get to see the rest of Nerve's posts after her vote. So no reason to go in fists a-pumping with that argument.

and Nog being a cobbler totally makes sense, but let's see what he posts. Since he posts late, he can have little or tremendous effects.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

You know what? This actually makes sense as cobbler behavior, assuming he thought you, Nerwen, were a wolf. With you as one of the bandwagon options, he ties two others (Pom's and Cabbie's), and leaves your options open (to save a packmate, bus one, whatever you wanted to do).

Of course, this scenario does have a pretty slim chance of being accurate, but even disregarding his hypothetical reasoning about Nerwen, I think Nog's behavior really makes more sense as cobbleric than wizardly.

I fear you are right, but I am going to have to vote now as I may not be back before DL, and anyway he does at least look more guilty than innocent to me.

So-

++Nogrod

Volo is another who needs looking at, again for (possibly) trying to save Pom. I will do this later if I have time, but someone else should as well.

[satansaloser2005]

I have returned for a few moments to inform your trolly selves that Boro will not be appearing toDay. He's swamped at work (sounds lovely to me, honestly) and will likely be unable to post.

I haven't read a flipping thing since the narrations (yay!) and I don't have time to at the moment, but I'll be back later with thoughts.

[Inziladun]

Ok, common sense says at least that Cop is unlikely to be a mate of Pom's. There was just no reason for Pom to have voted that way if that was the case.

Looking at it from a saving Pom perspective, Boro voted Cop (third vote), Volo went with Nerwen, and Nog voted for Cab. While it's certainly possible there's a Wizard on the Pom-wagon, I'm making those three the focus.

I see Nerwen's already voted for Nog, and hopefully I'll get time to look at the other two.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thing is, I really don't think I was "defensive". I said I thought Gil's post looked bad for what I believe were purely objective reasons.

Which brings me to something else. "Defensive" is, or has been, a bit of a magic word in Werewolf- in fact in ancient times, when we were all less sophisticated, it used to be quite possible for wolves to get innocents lynched by the simple means of (1) attacking them, and (2) labelling any response whatever as "defensive".

Yeah, I suppose "defensive" behavior does have a history of being seen as a negative. But I don't think defensiveness is necessarily suspicious. It depends on the nature of the vote placed against someone. If the vote is well-reasoned and consistent with the voter's earlier posts, then defensive behavior does look like an overreaction. But if a vote is poorly thought out or random, then being defensive is justified.

In my previous post, I forgot to keep the cobbler in consideration. Anyone could be the cobbler and their vote and/or a baddie's opinion of them doesn't put them in the clear for that role. But I'm not going to worry much about that possibility since the cobbler isn't the easiest to identify, especially if they inadvertently help the village. And the cobbler counts as an ordo; it's the wizards we want to lynch. However, the suggestion that Nogrod could be the cobbler does make sense. His vote doesn't look innocent, but as I stated earlier, it's not necessarily wizard-like either.

[Ozban]

I have just about thirty minutes, so I'll have to make this fast.

I have been looking at Morsul's post so far, and I'm pretty sure I will vote him tonight. But before that I'll review his actions up to now, from my point of view.

First: post #8 Seems like looking over all our personal playstyles from his point of view. Activity, but really unhelpful. And no banter on page full of banters, builds seeming of genuine desire to help, but the substance is missing. Additionaly Pom is the only one marked suspicious in this post. Is that maneuver to build distance in between himself and a packmate?

Second: post #16

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I certainly feel odd being the least IC on the first page

Could be interpreted as "look at me, Im actually the only one not bantering, but showing some real effort". Suspicious declaration. Well Mors, sorry, but you have done nothing helpful up to that point. Let's see what's next.

Third: post #22

From "tends to be suspicious" to "genuine suggestion". Ok, hardly a proof but if we consider, for the sake of argument, that Mors is a Wizz, then this post is really understendable, but also intresting.

Fourth: post #24

Seeing Kath as cobbler? This could be passed as confirming reception of cobblers hint, or pointing to cobbler in attempt to start cob-hunt having wizzers a free time as a result.

Fifth: doublepost #59
and #60

Reminding everyone of Kat, voting her, and signing off. Very safe vote, since nobody would actually vote Kat with such a weak evidence. Nice way to avoid the last-minute mess, staying under radar in the process. And that's for his participation in Day1

I had only limited time to look at Mors's toDay/Night's posts. His recap is intresting, but did not tell me much, at least not anything new.
Lottie's post #169 is something I totaly relate to. It seems like Mors-Wizz slipping unintentionally.

I like Nerwen's analysis of Pom's panic (#168). My thoughts, when I voted followed the line of Nerw's point 3. It seemed almost clear to me. Now as you summed it up, i'm not so sure anymore. But certainly McCab-wizz is a distinct possibility.

As for suspicions againt me, I understand them, I find Nog's vote suspicious and I can be obviously suspected for similar reasons.

Most likely not gonan appear before deadline, I'm gonna celebrate with friends.
Therefore:

++Morsul the Dark

I hope I made my reasons clear up above.

X-ed since #198