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#161 | |
Flame Imperishable
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Ok, I'm back. I might not be totally coherent because of mock exams and tiredness, but these are my current thoughts.
For now, I'm accepting Rikae's reveal. I mean, I was getting non-ordo vibes from her from the start, and now at least that's certain (though the same goes for all of you). Yes, I am the sole innocent left here. You can disbelieve me if you want- I mean, I'd rather you killed me than any of the three gifteds. And now we're in a position where the hunter's life is arguably just as, if not more valuable than that of our seer, which is quite strange. And if she's not the real seer, then the real seer should definitely reveal now. Quote:
edit: x-ed with Mac's first.
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#162 | |
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Quote:
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#163 |
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Ok, thinking about it, it seems unlikely that Lottie is evil.
Option 1- Seer-Rikae and non-wolf-Lottie: Well, that's exactly what it they're saying on the thread. Option 2- Seer-Rikae and Wolf-Lottie Wouldn't happen. Much too risky. Option 3- Wolf-Rikae and non-wolf-Lottie Could happen Option 4- Fake-revealing gifted Rikae: Unlikely because of the high chance of guessing wrong, and if that is the case, not only negating the purpose of a fake-revealing innocent, but also narrowing down possible seer candidates. So unless Rikae is a fake-revealing gifted, Lottie is not a wolf.
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#164 |
Flame Imperishable
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Anyway, it's later here than I was expecting- I hope you all judge well while I'm gone.
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#165 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
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Well, it seems to have been a while since the last post, and since there's no real reason to disbelieve Rikae, I guess that means I just have to look at Mac and Eonwe. Easy enough.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#166 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
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Well, I really would like to hear a bit more from Shasta, Mac and Steve (gone for the hour?) - don't any of you have anything to say that might influence our decision?
I know I've made it sound as though we had already won, but according to my calculations the wrong choice now will mean that two hours from now Lottie will have a 50% chance of voting wrongly losing the game. As interesting as such an hour might be, I'd rather vote as well as possible now, which means I'd rather hear more from the three gentlemen mentioned above... |
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#167 | |
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Firstly, since everyone's posted and no-one's refuted her claim, I'm willing to believe that Rikae is actually our seer, since at this point in the game it would be foolish not to counter-reveal.
Quote:
I'll let my subconscious mull over it while I look at Mac.
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#168 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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Nope, I was wrong, there's another possible outcome.
Still, if we lynch a gifted today we've squandered our advantage, Quote:
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#169 |
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Ok, I had to go, but I'm back and have almost finished a Mac-post.
Yes. If you think it's less risky to kill me, go ahead. At least then you'll have all the gifteds.
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#170 |
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On which, note, I'd like to point out that Mac tried to inadvertently claim that role too (see here), which is one reason that I really suspect him (more on this in my next post).
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#171 | |||||||||||||
Flame Imperishable
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Since Shasta's posted so little, there's absolutely no way to tell whether or not he's a wolf. I'll ignore my meta-reasoning sense, which would suggest that he wouldn't accept such a hollow victory anway, and instead focus on Mac, which at least can be done (though his post count isn't very, at least he's said something).
Good stuff This post seems pretty reasonable: Quote:
Quote:
Other stuff Quote:
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Ok, now this thing. Quote:
Now, I can't see any reason why at this point in the game, the Ranger would claim to be an ordinary innocent. We only have one Night left, and this means that the only choice the Ranger has is to protect the Seer. I mean, there will be no Day after toMorrow, so there is no need to worry. And so, since it's obvious that the Ranger will be protecting Rikae (which is basically our only chance to have a definite win toMorrow), there is no need for the Ranger to hide, since their power is then basically useless, as the wolf will almost certainly attack someone other than Rikae. And so, if the Ranger wouldn't hide, and I know that I am the innocent in the game, I'm forced to conclude that Mac is a wolf.
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#172 | |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
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Quote:
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#173 | |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
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I had a lengthy defense post written, but then I came to Eonwe's last points and realized something.
First: Quote:
5 players +lynch +safe=4 players next hour. 4 players +lynch +safe=3 players last hour. Not likely, but could happen. If the ranger declares prematurely he's toast unless he gambles. Add to this the more crucial fact that we might have a tie and therefore no lynch! Second, all that ranger stuff makes me feel a lot better about Eonwe for a reason I don't want to tell yet. Which leads me to: Why don't all gifteds just reveal? Since every role is left exactly one time, we will have exactly one revealed role twice (the real one and the falsely revealed wolf). With two guaranteed lynches left, we've got it. If we pool our votes well, no randomness or wolf vote can cause a tie. |
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#174 |
Flame Imperishable
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Ok, go on then. What are you?
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#175 | |
Mellifluous Maia
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Quote:
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#176 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
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Do you just know whether Lottie is innocent or not, or do you have her role?
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#177 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
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Don't trust me?
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#178 |
Flame Imperishable
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16 minutes to DL, and only 3/5 people are here. Seriously?
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#179 |
Mellifluous Maia
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We don't need two days - that is, if we don't lynch a gifted now.
Should I vote for you, Mac? |
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#180 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
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I don't think Rikae is bluffing, even though I know she likes to reveal falsely. She wouldn't have come up with the late dream initially if she wasn't the real seer.
Eonwe claims to be an ordo, and since Rikae doesn't say it isn't so, Lottie is not an ordo, but gifted. Since I'm the ranger, Lottie must be the hunter, and Shasta and Eonwe are an ordo/wolf combo, one way or the other. ++Shasta since Eonwe is actually around. Last edited by Macalaure; 04-18-2012 at 03:55 PM. Reason: highlighting |
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#181 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
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I don't like revealing.
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#182 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
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and btw:
First Night: Inzil.
Second Night: missed ![]() |
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#183 |
Mellifluous Maia
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++Eönwë
Safest bet. |
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#184 |
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Rikae, what do you think?
edit: WHAT? REALLY?
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#185 |
Mellifluous Maia
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You claim not to be gifted, so you're the safest vote, Eönwë - sorry.
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#186 |
Flame Imperishable
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Ok, well since I know it's not me,
++Shasta
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#187 |
Mellifluous Maia
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Mac could well be a wolf (and I don't really care for the fact that he votes for Shasta now...) but if he is I'll know toHour.
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#188 |
Flame Imperishable
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Now, if this is wrong, as long as the Hunter picks Mac, we'll be fine.
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#189 |
Fading Fëanorion
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Did Shasta and Lottie vote last hour, or will they be random?
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#190 |
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Shasta has not voted at all. I know that.
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#191 |
Werewolf Psychic
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Well, I happen to know that it's not me, either.
++Eonwe
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#192 |
Mellifluous Maia
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If Eönwë was actually an ordo he should have voted for himself, as he knows it would guarantee a village win.
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#193 |
Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
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Also, this DL is incredibly awkward. Wednesday is my busiest day.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#194 |
Flame Imperishable
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You know what? You're right. I was swayed by Mac, and, you know, my drive to stay alive, but you're completely right. I apologise, village.
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#195 |
Mellifluous Maia
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And once again it comes down to someone not taking the game seriously, Lottie.
/facepalm |
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#196 |
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But guarantee is a strong word. If the hunter picks wrong and the wolf attacks the hunter, there will be no victory.
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#197 |
Werewolf Psychic
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I kind of feel like I just shouldn't have voted - I'd have died and the wolf would have been gone toMorrow. But I haven't done anything at all this game yet, so I kind of felt like I should do something. I hope you guys know I'm not just not participating because I don't feel like it. I really am quite busy, and the weather really was that bad.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#198 | |
Flame Imperishable
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Quote:
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#199 |
Fading Fëanorion
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Tie.
![]() If Rikae dreams of me we will be no smarter tomorrhour. Everybody has made a role claim (or can be deduced) except Shasta. His actual role is therefore most crucial and should be investigated. |
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#200 |
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Unless Rikae is the most cunning one of all.
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