WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

There is something unnerving me about Lottie's recent post, if I say it shortly, sort of hypocrisy or what... it looks like that... ("oh you lynched shasta"). I know an innocent can start a bandwaggon unwillingly, but still this looks fake.

I voted for the only suspicion I had. I knew it wasn't a strong case. I have never seen this immense of a bandwagon before. Considering that there really weren't very strong reasons at all, I'd have expected another candidate with at least a few other votes. Yeah, it might be hypocritical, but there's a big difference from giving someone their first vote (and not seeing people starting to bandwagon before I left) and voting for someone after a definite bandwagon had already started.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You went after Shasta in the first place because of his strange vehemence against Pitchwife.

No. I went after him because his tone felt off - too defensive/aggresive. As it happens, that was because he was the Seer. I had no real reasons. The Pitchie-thing came after I first started to suspect him, and as far as I remember, was never a consideration in my suspicion.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I mean, I am really curious what would you say had you been around yesterDay at that time. Only if you said "wait, now I am beginning to doubt whether I voted well", I would be able to let you pass with the above.

If it helps, when I read through, I was muttering "are you serious?" and "guuuuuys!" to myself. But, of course, there's no way to prove that, as it was already Nighttime.

And where did this Greenie suspicion come from anyway? I don't see her even in Lottie's list. Isn't it per any chance picking on what Nerwen just said about suspecting her, or a slip of mind where she noted to herself - as a Wolf - "Nerwen seemed to suspect Greenie, from now on I am pretending to trust her because of that explanation" and accidentally then messing it up in her head and writing her among the suspects? I can see that happening to a Wolf...

My suspicion of Greenie started in the first paragraph of that post, and the list led off of that. Possibly not the clearest, but that's the way my thoughts ended up looking.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.

Agreeing with me is never a smart move, Vanilwuffin. Really, though, I don't mean to put all the blame on them - I'm fully aware that I made a huge mistake yesterDay - but, since I know that I'm innocent, it would not be helpful for me to make posts explaining why I look suspicious as opposed to looking for suspiciousness in other people.

EDIT: xed with Boro and I will be back later, but in a few hours, probably - and *whispers* I'm not really here now.

[A Little Green]

Agh, I was supposed to have hours and hours in early afternoon for playing, turned out I was desperately needed at work, and now I have to run again... Sorry for participating so crappily toDay, will definitely be more active toMorrow! This was totally unexpected and stupid.

So just a quick post - I have read the thread through, not as carefully as I'd like, and at the moment my top suspect is Skip, and I wouldn't mind trying Pitchwife either. Skip's Shasta-vote was opportunistic-looking, and his tone toDay strikes me as false. I'd provide you guys with exact quotes but I'm really in a hurry now. So here we go..

++ Skip

I hope I'm rather less catastrophically wrong than yesterDay. Choose well, sorry for being so inactive toDay, and good Night!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boro

I mentioned Wilwa and my last post and shall wait for a response, but right now that self-vote looks like a cobbler signaling wolves more than anything.

I wasn't around that much yesterDay due to school and dentist, and got home about 15 minutes before DL. I tried to skim through as best as I could, but basically all I saw was a bunch of Shasta votes and I didn't have a full understanding as to why everyone was voting him, and I didn't really see anyone else who looked suspicious (clearly, neither did many others). At that point as well it was going to be him, no matter who I voted for there was not much I could do about it, and I hadn't had the chance to really look at anyone else.

So I could either jump on the bandwaggon, vote randomly for someone else who I didn't find suspicious, I could not vote at all, or I could vote myself. First two were not an option to me, and so I decided to have a bit of fun rather than do nothing, and to me self-voting is very amusing.

There's your response. I'll be back on in a bit once I've eaten.

[Ozban]

++Pitchwife

Got to hurry now, so I won't explain myself entirely. Simply it's too stupid to let it get away.

Won't probably be back before DL.

Choose wisely.

Later...

[Nogrod]

Okay just a few short points from the last posts as I've just read them. Then hopefully something more substantial...

It seems we have a new word in our ww-vocabulary - and there is use for it to be true! The latest mantra I find quite odd is this "those latest votes to Shasta look the most suspicious, don't they?"

We all I think share the amazement looking at the 7-vote tally for Shasta - and that it screams wolf (although let's not totally blind our eyes to the possibility that the wolves just sat back and enjoyed the events...). But by the time myself and Greenie were voting (we x'd our votes) there was little to choose from.

So if we want to look for wolvish hands steering the wagon we're already late looking at those last votes (when I voted Shasta had 5, Lottie & Pitchie 1 each) - the wagon was already out of control.

Just based on "wagonery", I'd say the following are the ones to build it...

Glirdy (3rd vote)
Skip (4th vote)
Pitch (5th vote)

Whatever the alignment of each and everyone of them, here anyway is our wagon.
Lottie started, Inzil made the second (in situation 1-1-1), I'm not saying they are innocents because they were not the actual wagon-builders (well, we can discuss whether giving the second vote is wagoning). Greenie & myself closed it in a situation where it really didn't make a difference anymore.

Originally Posted by Ozban

In the end Eönwë was only one of us that defended Shasta. For that he has my trust. As much as is possible in this game.

You still have some things to learn - and you have time. But really.Eönwë's last post was rather horribly suspicious than trustworthy. Don't let the hindsight you have now mix with what you think - and remember, the wolves knew all the time we were lynching an innocent - so they could afford playing the "noble" or "moral highground" who'd be proven right in retrospect - and thus look so shiny in their white armour without any blood on their shirts.

Talking of which:

Originally Posted by Boro of me

insistance to look at those he thinks chose the "moral high ground" to not vote for Shasta just looks straight up cobblery

Of course we should look at the Shasta voters - we have a dead seer here so of course we have to. It would be the most stupid thing not to. I mean it should go without saying we look closely at such wagons. *enough?*

I have only said we should not forget the others or give them a free pass. I could bet quite a lot at least one wolf markedly did not vote for Shasta. And I might also guess that that person would have made some noise about it (I haven't checked that, but will).

Anyway, back to bussiness now. I raised my eyebrow quite a few times earlier toDay while reading the thread. I'll get back to those issues.


EDIT: bah, Ozban seems to have gone - just as he'd need to read something...

[skip spence]

Okay I'm here now, more or less until DL, though I can't give this my full attention.

Will be reviewing Day 1 first...

[Nogrod]

Shasta's dream?

Looking back at all that Shasta posted on D1 and considering possible hints from the seer, I think we have basically three options: Pitchwolf, Nerwinnocent and Innogate.

Of Legate he says in his first post (with a quote from Legate about him willing to stir discussion):

Originally Posted by Shasta on #10

It's true, you are, and this very trait is what led me to think you evil when last we met. However, given that you've said that you're stirring up the rest of us here... I believe I'm okay with you, for now, Legate.

He refers to both Legate and Nerwen:

Originally Posted by S on #21

I entirely agree with Nerwen on the subject of the cobbler, and disagree with Legate

Of Nerwen he says:

Originally Posted by S on #33

[I'm] most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).

Well?

He thinks he's okay (for now!) with Leg; he has suspected him because of his style but if it's just stirring the discussion, then okay, for now.

Then he disagrees (on the subject of cobbler) with Legate - and agrees (on the subject of cobbler) with Nerwen.

Then he says he's most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).


What about Pitchie then? Well, this was it.

Originally Posted by S on #10

In other news, I'm finding something slightly off about Pitch. He's only made one post thus far, but as I read it there were points at which I felt he was being awfully... well, the pun is inevitable... agreeable.

Originally Posted by S on #31

I was the first to evidence actual suspicion of a specific person (Pitch, to be precise)

Originally Posted by S on #33

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment

Originally Posted by S on #58

Here you are, Pitch. Bolding mine. I've noticed several other points ("Thanks for the advice" sticks out most noticably) as I've read the Day, as well.

I have to vote in a few minutes. I'd prefer not to turn this into Shasta vs. Lottie, but I will if I have to.

Originally Posted by S votes Pitch on #60

I don't like Lottie's contrived reasons to vote for me, but she more often contrives reasons to vote when she's innocent, so I'll leave her alone today. Pitch sticks out as more suspicious to me today - agreeable, doesn't touch on more than the obvious topic of the cobbler, etc.

Well?

He singles out Pitchie in the first post with quite a sleight of hand - and comes back stressing that he had made the first actual suspicion of a specific person (and even added that it was Pitchie). And he repeats it and then goes to produce that odd piece of quotes from Pitchie which at least I can't find a decent suspicion even if I try my best.

Finally he will not vote for Lottie to help save himself but goes for Pitchie instead...

Uh-oh.

Some conclusions in a separate post shortly...

[Nogrod]

So?

To me it seems he is acting more or less straightforwardly with Legate and Nerwen. Anyway, it's hard for me to take anything from there as a seer-hint. And if he was leaving hints here, well, ge did make it hard for us to read.

How he deals with Pitchie looks quite monomaniac and out of any proportion to being a straightforward play. It is hard to see that coming out from just Pitchie's posting and Shasta really trying his best to form a suspicion and vote on it - especially as there was a slight possibility some people might vote him because of the attacks of Lottie.


The question then becomes is Pitchie a dreamt wolf or was Shasta trying to accomplish something different?

Someone suggested that he might have tried to pose as the seer to the wolves with a wrong target and thus cover himself from them. But isn't that quite a dangerous tactics? Why single oneself out as a seer - even if a false one in the first place? He might have figured they'd think of him as the cobbler though. But then again, what if he accidentally picked a real wolf? That would be really dangerous - or did he just trust on his psychic abilities not to pick one? Okay, maybe he dreamt of an innocent Pitchie and then used him as his target? Possible...

On the other hand, wouldn't it be just too reckless from him in the first place to come that openly out with a bogus-case if he had a wolf? But like someone (Nerwen?) mentioned, it was his first game as a seer. It is rather unnerving to be one and have a wolf in your hands and feel people suspecting you - and knowing you have to leave early... (heh, when I was a seer the first time I dreamt of wolf-Roa and just couldn't stand quiet but went after her like a raving mad ). Anyway he shouldn't have been so confident of him being alive the next Day when he left that it feels he'd rather have a pressure to leave something than just play the odd one and leave... Or then not.


*my brain hurts.*

[Pitchwife]

Back and feeling better, but had no time to more than skim through what has gone on in my absence, so just a few words I want to get out:

According to Occam's razor, the 'dreamed-Pitchwolf-theory' looks like the most probable at the moment, so I can't really fault anybody for wanting to test it. I'd of course rather lynch a wolf, so if I can save myself in any way I will, but if it takes death to clear me, so be it (and then you can all join me wondering what the Udûn our Seer, may he rest in peace, thought he was doing), and maybe the Ranger will choose wisely again and compensate for the lynching of yet another innocent.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I'd just like to say that, if Pitchie is a dream'd wolf, a packmate would press the Nerwen-dream. But in general Glirdy's tone in this game has been very non-wolfish, and I'm inclined to trust him...or at least, not vote him.

Or they might do the same if I'm innocent, hoping for the moral high ground tomorrow; but I guess one or two of them won't be able to resist the temptation to push what looks like falling. As to me, I know he can't have dreamed me, and I think Nerwen is the most likely dream, especially since she looks fine to me in general.
There's still the cobbler, of course, who is in an interesting position now, not knowing whether I'm a dreamed wolf or not, but will probably rather err on the side of caution and try to save me. That in mind, I don't really trust Legate now, who doesn't seem to ponder the possibility that Shasta dreamed me very seriously at all - I mean, I do of course appreciate the support, but really?

EDIT: x-ed from #166 down

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

So just a quick post - I have read the thread through, not as carefully as I'd like, and at the moment my top suspect is Skip, and I wouldn't mind trying Pitchwife either. Skip's Shasta-vote was opportunistic-looking, and his tone toDay strikes me as false. I'd provide you guys with exact quotes but I'm really in a hurry now. So here we go..

++ Skip

That looks a bit odd, really. I don't see how skip could have more against him than Pitch at the moment. If Pitch turns out to be a wolf, Greenie needs some scrutiny.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You still have some things to learn - and you have time. But really.Eönwë's last post was rather horribly suspicious than trustworthy. Don't let the hindsight you have now mix with what you think - and remember, the wolves knew all the time we were lynching an innocent - so they could afford playing the "noble" or "moral highground" who'd be proven right in retrospect - and thus look so shiny in their white armour without any blood on their shirts.

I don't know that I'd go as far as to say Steve was "horribly suspicious" there, but I agree that it doesn't make him look especially good either, despite Ozban's words.

x/d with Nog and Pitch

[Pitchwife]

A question for those (that's you, Zil and skip) who allegedly made the same mistake as me, thinking Lottie had seerish reasons to suspect Shasta: didn't it at least occur to you to give Shasta the same benefit of doubt? I naturally didn't consider it myself, knowing his suspect to be innocent (and was utterly flabbergasted when I read the narration), but since none of you could have known that (except, of course, if you're a wolf!), didn't the possibility at least occur to you?
By the way, in this respect I tend to find skip more genuine, since he gave this explanation without anybody suggesting it and it fits his line about undisclosed reasons yesterDay, whereas Zil only came up with it after both skip and me had already talked about it. For that reason, I'm not so happy with Greenie's vote.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Me

Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Fair enough, and the point did occur to me too– though I rejected it when she started saying "but I could be wrong". However, why didn't Shasta's flimsy accusation of Pitch also strike you as Seerish?

Why not? I suppose that although Shasta's accusation of Pitch also did seem weak (something almost unavoidable on a Day 1 unless a wolf makes a very foolish and blatant mistake I think), Lottie's motivation to attack Shasta was just plain ridiculous if she had honest intentions and as she, as we now know, isn't the Seer.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Really, though, not liking Shasta. Too non-confrontational, and the way he words this especially:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Wrong. The Hunter takes their current pick to the grave with them if lynched, regardless of alignment.

I mean, what in the name of Eru Illuvatar could been seen as suspicious in that? Not sure if a wolf would be so careless though...

[Boromir88]

I'm here til the DL. Right now, my vote is leaning towards Pitch.

Where's everyone buggered off to? I was actually hoping for a bit more chatter by the time I got back.

[skip spence]

This passage struck me as rather unnerving:

Originally Posted by Boro Day 1

Because the thing is, as long as we hold up our job in buying the gifteds as many days as we can and avoid the irrationally, more often than not, extremely damaging emotional lynches, than we usually fair very well against the wolves. No stupid lynches, it really is that simple, because everyone's been a wolf here before correct? And don't you just smirk and jump for joy anytime the village manages to lynch one of their gifteds? No stupid lynches, don't do the wolves work for them, and honestly we'll be fine as our chances of winning dramatically go up.

What exactly are you talking about Boro? No stupid lynches?? As if we wanted to be stupid and lynch our gifteds...

[wilwarin538]

So I see people are still rather confused about the possiblity of Pitch being Shasta's dream (I'm seeing lots of "he went after him so much, but that's just so obvious") and I feel the exact same way. So the solution to me seems to be to lynch Pitch. No, he may not look overly suspicious on his own, but our Seer thought he was, and we lynched the poor guy, so maybe we should do what he wanted to do?

If we're wrong than that will suck, and Shasta will have some explaining to do about why he went after Pitch so hard; if we're right than awesome, and we can move on to someone else toMorrow. Cause if we don't do this now, Pitch will still be a major point of discussion tomorrow, and I'd rather not waste so much time. Let's just find out.

++Pitchwife

If he turns up innocent than we can assume that Shasta dreamt Nerwen (or possibly Legate) and then we'll have someone we feel fairly good about, which is a good thing too. It just seems to me to be the most logical course of action, and the only way to have a better idea of who Shasta actually dreamed of, instead of just speculating indefinetely.

x'ed with Boro and Skip

[Nogrod]

While I was reading through the thread earlier I did also take some notes on the developement of the Shasta-wagon. I'm not promising this has every comment on the issue (and will not take on hour to re-check), but it should be quite exhaustive.

Also I have not included my own comments on it as I was doing this (on paper) just to help myself see how it goes. I - or maybe even better, someone else - might go and check them if interested.

I'll drop bolding to save time. Also S = Shasta & L = Lottie. Note also: unless in parentheses, they are not exact quotes but my shorthand...


Here we go.


Leg #35 notes that S&L act curious, like w-on-w; S accuses Pitch randomly like wolves.

Glirdy #37 "I was thinking the same" (about w-on-w).

Nerwen #38 Thirds the idea.

Green #39 the infamous 4 scenarios, stays neutral.

Ozban #44 L&S "just a random recon".

Leg #46 weary of S&L.

Pitch #48 suspects L, finds S innocentish.

Zil #50 S&L "usual selves", but "interplay companionlike". S's quick suspicion on Pitch stands out.

Lottie votes Shasta (#57)

Shasta votes Pitch (#60)

Boro #62 comments on who have stood out but doesn't mention either S or L (I thought of adding this here as it looks interesting in concerto with what he did later).

skip #64 the infamous "might vote S for reasons I'd rather not disclose at this point".

Pitch #66 list-post; puts S&L together "there be a wolf there?"

Glirdy #67 S&L&Pitch, one of the three a wolf?

Green #68 questions S.

Zil #71 L's vote for S speak for them not both being wolves; L&S obvious, too easy?

Green #72 S most suspicious, L quess innocent; not surprised if both wolves.

Green #74 L actually did vote for S? More improbable they both are wolves.

Pitch #75 gives his resons to suspect both S&L.

Leg #78 L more suspicious but lynched on D1 on the previous game.

Legate votes Lottie (#80)

Zil votes Shasta 2 (#81)
"no one else looks potentially as bad".

skip #82 would like to see S rather than L go.

Glirdy votes Shasta 3 (#87)
S&L could both ber wolves but believe S to be one; S on Pitch suspicious.

skip votes Shasta 4 (#94)

Green #95 could vote for S

Pitchie votes Shasta 5 (#96)

Boro #97 not liking the votes, will go random.


And well that's the story of the wagon developing. Rest is history.

Okay. I need a short break now but I'll be back soonish.

Feel free to look at the story meanwhile. I'll have a few comments on it too as I come back.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

A question for those (that's you, Zil and skip) who allegedly made the same mistake as me, thinking Lottie had seerish reasons to suspect Shasta: didn't it at least occur to you to give Shasta the same benefit of doubt? I naturally didn't consider it myself, knowing his suspect to be innocent (and was utterly flabbergasted when I read the narration), but since none of you could have known that (except, of course, if you're a wolf!), didn't the possibility at least occur to you?

As I already said here, I didn't think Lottie could be the Seer. I considered that skip might be. Since Shasta already looked odd, skip seemed more believable.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

By the way, in this respect I tend to find skip more genuine, since he gave this explanation without anybody suggesting it and it fits his line about undisclosed reasons yesterDay, whereas Zil only came up with it after both skip and me had already talked about it. For that reason, I'm not so happy with Greenie's vote.

So skip explained his vote for Shasta without being asked? You asked him to explain it, did you not?

x/d with Wilwa and Nog

[Inziladun]

Scratch the last bit. I think I know what Pitch meant now.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer.

Fair enough, but I don't think you've convincingly explained yet why you picked out Shasta in the first place. And this

Originally Posted by Lottie

No. I went after him because his tone felt off - too defensive/aggresive.

is not a good answer, for his tone only changed after you accused him first for that utterly unsuspicious rules clarification.

Since somebody (I think Boro, but can't be bothered to check now) pointed out that I changed my mind about the Shasta-Lottie affair yesterDay - yep, I did, and I'm afraid Shasta going after me like he did played a part in that. I probably should have shrugged it off, and was quite willing to do so in the beginning (what Nog has called my 'defensive thoroughness' was mostly for the relish of demolishing that ridiculous case); it was only later in the Day that I had the misguided idea that Lottie could be the Seer, which made the balance shift against Shasta.

As for the building of the bandwagon, if it still matters:

Originally Posted by my voting post #96

EDIT: x-ed from #85 down

Glirdan's was #87 (but he x-ed himself with a lot of people)
(And yes, I really wavered that long over these few lines. Believe it. I wouldn't lie about technicalities even as a wolf.)

[Eönwë]

Ok, well, I'm still finishing to read, but...

Ouch. Seer. Dead. (And I won't take the whole "I-told-you-so" approach, because my non-vote yesterDay was hardly better)

And I don't really think that the Ranger save, however good it was (and let me say here "Good work, Ranger") is really worth the seer, so I disagree with those people in the beginning of the Day who made it sound like that. On the bright side though, it does buy us a Day, so I'm not saying that it's not a reason to celebrate.

Anyway...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How about everyone just uncloaked and we could be done with it by judging on the hairyness of everyone...

*Begins to uncl-* Oh, was that a no? Sorry.



But to more serious business now.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do suspect Boro heavily on his last minute declaration of moral highground - and to a slightly lesser degree also Steve (what Legate said him seemingly being in a hurry).

Well I had two options:

1. Join in the Shasta-waggon, which I didn't agree with (he just didn't seem any guiltier than he usually does on Day 1).
2. Cast a throwaway vote based on no good reasons, as I hadn't been around for most of the Day.

So I chose option 3: none of the above.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Possibly for the reason he said: Nerwen agreed with him about the Cobbler.

Is that really a good enough reason? Especially for a Seer. Then again, you could say the same about Pitch, which wasn't really that convincing.


More to come...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Zil

As I already said here, I didn't think Lottie could be the Seer. I considered that skip might be. Since Shasta already looked odd, skip seemed more believable.

Sorry, I got that mixed up. Still, I mentioned that other possibility as well before you did.

Originally Posted by Zil

So skip explained his vote for Shasta without being asked? You asked him to explain it, did you not?

As you've apparently realized, I asked him to explain his undisclosed reasons, but I didn't suggest the answer he gave. That's what I meant.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by skip spence

This passage struck me as rather unnerving:

What exactly are you talking about Boro? No stupid lynches?? As if we wanted to be stupid and lynch our gifteds...

I remember reading that yesterday, I believe I quoted it and said 'hear hear!', because it's so true. And he said it before the whole bandwaggon thing happened; he was warning us not to get in to such a situation, he wasn't chastising us for already being in the situation. If it was the latter I could maybe see why you don't like it, but since it's the former I don't see anything wrong with what he said. (it just makes me wonder if he's psychic)

He just was saying we should pay attention and not let things go out of control, since that usually leads to disaster, and clearly he was right. If more people had been concerned with the fact that votes were piling on to one person way too quickly, maybe it wouldn't have happened. It was a very 'stupid lynch'.

x'ed with 2 Pitch and Eonwe

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.

Erm, isn't that what you're meant to do with the Seer's suspicions?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I thought skip could be intimating he was the Seer, especially when coupled with something I'd seen from him earlier.

What exactly was it that you saw? Tell us now, since we know he isn't the Seer.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However, let us suppose Shasta did in fact dream Pitch– perhaps he was trying to provoke Mr Agreeable Wolf into a response?

Or even if he hadn't dreamed pitch and just suspected him he could have been doing the same.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Final Post Count from yesterDay:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Did not vote:
Eonwe, Nerwen

Out of those who voted for Shasta, I'm more inclined to believe that a Wolf is hiding in the later voters, more so in Greenie and Nog. At the time of their voting, Shasta had already garnered enough votes to have him lynched seeing as after Boro had voted, it only left those two along with Ozzy and Wilwa. Even if they had all voted for the same person and had tied up the votes, our Mod Goddess would have flipped a coin as there are no double lynchings, therefore, still a fifty/fifty chance of Shasta being lynched. The placement of both those votes just seems to safe.

That's not exactly true, because if they would all have voted for someone that had already been voted and I had too then there wouldn't have been a tie. Just pointing that out.

On the other hand, it's always very unlikely to get everyone to vote the same, especially on Day 1, which is why this much-too-easy-looking bandwaggon is so strange.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.

I have to agree with this, which is why Lottie looks a bit self-contradictory, and in this case, maybe a bit suspicious too. Though it could be an innocent's confusion and change of mind as well (along the lines of "Well, if it was so obvious that Shasta looked innocent, why didn't you so something about it?"). It's hard to tell.

And I agree with whoever said that all the talk of people voting because of who they thought might be the seer is a little suspicious too.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the wagon one more time...

I'd say Glirdy and Legate were the people who made it move forwards at crucial points - fex. when some others had posted against suspecting them so much or cooling down - followed by Pitch.

Especially Glirdy looks quite bad with all those "I was thinking the same" and just popping in "one of the three is a wolf" + making the wagon rolling with the third vote. But even he didn't do it alone.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

What exactly was it that you saw? Tell us now, since we know he isn't the Seer.

His first post was strange, to say the least. I didn't know what to make of it at the time, but when he hinted he had reasons for wanting to vote Shasta it came back to me.

x/d with Nog

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by skip spence

What exactly are you talking about Boro? No stupid lynches?? As if we wanted to be stupid and lynch our gifteds...

Are you being serious? I think yesterday's lynch is clear enough to classify as a stupid lynch. But you're reading me wrong and interpretting stuff that just isn't there. I'm not saying anything about, "oh hoi there we like being stupid and lynch our own gifteds." I was trying to remind everyone of the dangers of Day 1.

We can't know a bad lynch from a good lynch until the outcome, but we can at least be a bit more reasonable than piling votes onto one person for trivial and weak reasons.

However, usually if someone can't be around to say anything or defend themselves from weak accusations they're usually given the benefit of the doubt for the day and allowed to respond the next. To keep piling up the posts onto a person who can't defend themselves is a bad decision. (It has nothing to do with taking a "moral high ground" it's just something that more often than not turns out badly. Pitch should know this from his first go as a seer. When he couldn't be at the DL to speak for himself and a bandwagon happened against him).

Also, being "defensive" doesn't necessarily mean a guaranteed wolf sign. So the multiple people ooh...Shasta's aggressive and defensive he's obviously suspicious, without considering he could have very good reasons to not want to be lynched is also a bad decision. It's the same thing when you get the feeling that someone is "up to something"...well yes a seer would probably be up to something, not everyone up to something = wolf.

That is why on Day 1's, I typically try to vote for someone who has left absolutely no impressions on me, because when we can't know anything for sure, voting for the person being "defensive" or the person "up to something," might be a wolf but wolvish behavior and gifted behavior is more similar than they are different. Where someone who is submarining is more than likely an ordo or a wolf trying to hide. Yeah, it sucks if the submarine is an ordo, but it's not nearly as bad of a decision as a vote for somebody who is leaving strong impressions on Day 1. And when you're just starting from scratch you can't tell, it's much safer to watch the person for a day or so, until you get a better idea of what he/she is doing. Instead of basing votes more on emotion because someone's aggressiveness or defensiveness or whatever random easy excuse someone can drum up.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Skip's post this responds to.

[Nogrod]

Tally, anyone?

Suggestions?

As Pitchie himself notes he is the favourite by Ockham's razor - the least complicated theory.

If we're not going for Pitchie (actually his own post of him being the evident choice made me back a step or two from wishing to lynch him), then who?

I was defending Lottie yesterDay because she just get lynched early so often and is for many the "easy lynch". But I must say what she has done toDay hasn't exactly helped me to stand by and defend her.

I could also consider lynching Glirdy for working the wagon at the right times and being the opportunist.

[Inziladun]

All right, I have to go ahead and vote.

Whatever Shasta was thinking yesterDay, there's only one way to be sure of Pitch. If we give him a pass, I feel it'll be hanging over us the rest of the game.

++Pitch

Sorry if you're innocent, mate. But I can't come up with a plausible scenario for Shasta to have done what he did which doesn't involve you being a wolf.

[skip spence]

Argh! too much to read!

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

He just was saying we should pay attention and not let things go out of control, since that usually leads to disaster, and clearly he was right. If more people had been concerned with the fact that votes were piling on to one person way too quickly, maybe it wouldn't have happened. It was a very 'stupid lynch'.

Still don't get it I'm afraid. It was day 1. As it chanced, unfortunate circumstances (and/or devious calculation) made us lynch our Seer. Had he turned out to be a wolf (which obviously seemed likely to many back then), we'd be cheering and calling it a job well done.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we're not going for Pitchie (actually his own post of him being the evident choice made me back a step or two from wishing to lynch him), then who?

Yeah...and would it be the wisest of things to have another massive bandwagon of votes? Umm, at least in this situation, there's not much risk to lose. If Pitch's is a wolf it's possible the wolves just want to go ahead and sacrifice him for the day and so that's why there hasn't been much opposition? And Pitch himself has kind of thrown in his accepted fate. But that is making me wary to have another 7-8+ votes onto one person where what can we then figure out from the votes.

Although, there's also the risk of passing up on a wolf because we're too nervous that it's so "obvious."

[Loslote]

Erm...I'm back...took longer than I'd thought. Still don't really have much of what could be called suspicion. I'd be willing to vote Greenie still - Legate not so much anymore. Is it just me, or is the same thing as happened yesterDay starting to happen to Pitchie? Yeah, there are better reasons, but I'd like to see at least some other options on the board toDay.

EDIT: xed since Boro's 186.

[skip spence]

But okay, you do have a point too. It's better to have some alternatives, more might be learned from that.

So as the votes are now piling up in Pitch I'll go for:

++Legate

he says a lot but isn't really helpful (that theoretic Cobbler-talk is a prime example)

[wilwarin538]

I believe it is:

Legate -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Pitch
Greenie -> Skip
Ozzy -> Pitch (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch (3)
Inzil -> Pitch (4)
Skip -> Legate

x'ed with a few, added Skip's vote

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Whatever Shasta was thinking yesterDay, there's only one way to be sure of Pitch. If we give him a pass, I feel it'll be hanging over us the rest of the game.

You're quite right. But if Shasta was playing a game after all? And another 7 votes would be kind of disaster if we got it wrong.

Pitchie 4
skip & Lottie & Legate1

is the tally...

X'd & corrected the tally

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by skip spence

But okay, you do have a point too. It's better to have some alternatives, more might be learned from that.

It didn't exactly help to bring in a new one...

EDIT: oops I realised the other one of those who had votes was you yourself skip... so if you really believe Lottie is innocent, then understandable.

[Pitchwife]

Didn't really have time to look at everybody thoroughly, so these are rather impressionistic...

TRUST
Nerwen
Boro (for now, but I still have to look at him closer if I survive this)
Nog (no matter what I thought about him yesterDay, he looks like impartially trying to find out the truth toDay)

GREYISH AREA
Greenie
Zil
Glirdan

DON'T TRUST
Lottie (now I know she wasn't the Seer)
Legate (I have a strong hunch he's the cobbler)

NO CLEAR IDEA ABOUT
everybody else

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Although, there's also the risk of passing up on a wolf because we're too nervous that it's so "obvious."

The chance of that is the reason I'm ok with this bandwaggon. Yes, it could be a disaster, but if we don't go for it then we'll just be talking about it again tomorrow, and there is a pretty good reason to lynch him (possible Seer dream), when for Shasta there wasn't as strong of a reason. It's not the same situation.

x'ed with Nog and Pitch

[Pitchwife]

Ah what the heck, it's worth a try...

++Lottie

If I die, good luck village, and I'll keep my fingers crossed for the Ranger. Down with the wolves!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The chance of that is the reason I'm ok with this bandwaggon. Yes, it could be a disaster, but if we don't go for it then we'll just be talking about it again tomorrow, and there is a pretty good reason to lynch him (possible Seer dream), when for Shasta there wasn't as strong of a reason. It's not the same situation.

Also, what will we learn from these last votes which artificially make it closer so there is no "bandwagon" again? Then people can cop out easily and say "hey, I was just trying to make this a bit closer and meaningful?" Nah, I'll stand by this one today...

++Pitch

[Eönwë]

Well, these are the options as I see them, in terms of the Pitch and Nerwen thing:


1. Nerwen is a wolf and Pitch is innocent. If we take any of Shasta's suggestions as hints, this is very unlikely.
2. Pitch is a wolf and Nerwen is innocent. Obviously, both would go for Nerwen's innocence.
3. Both are wolves. Both would go for Nerwen's innocence.
4. Both are innocent. Pitch would go for Nerwen's innocence, Nerwen would be unsure and wouldn't want to be become a wolf target.

Cobblers, on the other hand:

1. Pitch is a Cobbler and thinks Nerwen is a wolf. Would go for Nerwen's innocence.
2. Pitch is a Cobbler and thinks Nerwen is innocent. Would again go for Nerwen's innocence
3. Nerwen is a Cobbler and thinks Pitch innocent. Would go for Pitch's guiltiness.
4. Nerwen is a Cobbler and thinks Pitch wolvish. Would go for her innocence.

In summary:
Pitch will always go for Nerwen's innocence. Nerwen is more likely to go for her innocence too as a wolf, and as an innocent may be undecisive.

Also, if we lynch Pitch we will almost know whether Nerwen is innocent or not. Don't know whether that's a good idea.


PS. This post got messed up so I had to rewrite it. I probably x-ed with hundreds.

edit: I did.