WWJ X: Hithlum Zydeco Blues; Hísilómë in Hísimë

[Kitanna]

I still have my suspicions of Kuru and Roa from yesterday, but I've moved Mac and Jenny up from unknown to slightly suspicious.

I stated yesterday that Kuru helped put Form on people's radars and it helped to influence Glirdan to vote Form on Day 1. And yesterday he voted Mac, but I don't find that overly suspicious simply because he often spoke of Mac as a suspect.

Mac has me worried about his first post today. He has moved Kuru up on his list, while Kuru seems to have moved him down on his (at least for the time being). Eomer suggests a wolf-on-wolf tactic between them. I don't quite agree. I admit it's been awhile since I've really gotten the chance to play with Kuru, but I feel a wolf Kuru would not act in such a way. I realize I could also be terribly wrong about that, but I don't think both Mac and Kuru are wolves, one or the other. I lean toward Kuru more.

As for Jenny, there's something about her... She's reasonable enough, but she's been known to be quite crafty. So far (for the most part) she's flown under the radar (a few others fall into this as well), but what really made me look at her was her vote for Kuru today. This is her second vote for him. If there's any wolf-on-wolf action I'd say Jenny and Kuru might be it. Should Kuru die by lynching and is proven a wolf, Jenny can slip under radars because she was on Kuru from the beginning. If Kuru were to die an innocent I'd say Jenny is more likely an innnocent villager than a fiendish wolf.

Finally there's Roa. She's excellent at covering her tracks, which is why I've kept her on my suspect list all this time. She's one of those players that you can never be sure of until they've died or been dreamt of. I find it hard to pin Roa down with anything truly concrete, though I've tried. There's really nothing for me to say about Roa that has not already been said.

Eomer=
I'm here, and will hopefully have something more to add in a bit. One thought which strikes me is this. The wolves did not want Nogrod dead. He was a loudmouth and was making enemies and attracting suspicion like a flashy enemy-making-suspicion-attracting supercomputer.

Obviously this makes me look good because I voted for him ( ) but I think the point is still worth thinking about. The wolves would likely rely on the rest of the Ordos to round up the trouble-causing Nogrod. The wolves could afford to just stay the hell away from that battle, thinking they would look good in the process.

Just so we're clear, you think no wolves voted for Nogrod? If that is what you're getting at, I find that quite hard to believe. What you say makes sense, the wolves wouldn't really need to worry about Nogrod because he was causing such a stir the village was really noticing him, but one wolf had to be hiding in the votes. Perhaps one of the later voters, such as Roa or Jenny.
It was no surprise when Roa voted for Nogrod, I'd have been shocked if her vote went another way. Jenny though, she seemed more concentrated on Roa, Valier, Mith, and myself during the first half of the day. She did mention Nogrod not doing much to help the seer at the end of the day, but unless I missed a post where she really went after Nogrod, I'm now wondering why she voted him in the end.

Jenny=Noggie, frankly you are worrying me, but not enough to vote for you. I don't think.

The "I don't think" at the end is what worries me.

Jenny=I will not wait longer. I like neither choice presented, but Eomer seems reasonable, and you, Noggie, do not, but whether that mean you are a wolf or not...I can think of only one good way to find out.

++Nogrod

Jenny voted and broke the tie between Eomer and Nogrod. Not counting Jenny's vote for a moment, at this point in the day and voting Nogrod would have died (unless Kuru had come on suddenly and voted for Eomer). I understand why Jenny voted for Nogrod, but she didn't really have too. She could have voted for one of those she was really suspicious of, but she didn't, she voted for Nogrod. Though her vote makes sense in the end, I'm still left wondering.

[JennyHallu]

I just don't like making throwaway votes, and whether or not you or Roa were higher on my suspicion list, what was the point of voting for either of you? I find Kuru's vote for Mac more suspicious than a tiebreaker. At the last second, he votes for someone not even in the running? Why?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

I just don't like making throwaway votes, and whether or not you or Roa were higher on my suspicion list, what was the point of voting for either of you? I find Kuru's vote for Mac more suspicious than a tiebreaker. At the last second, he votes for someone not even in the running? Why?

I'd say because he didn't suspect Nogrod or Eomer.

I was planning on being on for the end of the day, but it doesn't look like that's possible right now. There's a still a slight chance I will be, but incase I don't, I don't want to leave now and not put down my vote.
I've narrowed it down to Kuru or Jenny. I've mentioned my reasons why I suspect each and I feel the same about both of them. As I said if there's any wolf on wolf actions here it's between these two.

++ Jenny

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm here, and will hopefully have something more to add in a bit. One thought which strikes me is this. The wolves did not want Nogrod dead. He was a loudmouth and was making enemies and attracting suspicion like a flashy enemy-making-suspicion-attracting supercomputer.

You do realize that wolves like these sorts of people around for the sole purpose hat they can lynch them? They kill these people during the day and use the excuse, "Well, you must admit they were being suspicious," while they kill the innocent people during the night. Your theory doesn't hold water, and smacks of trying cover your tracks.

I just don't like making throwaway votes, and whether or not you or Roa were higher on my suspicion list, what was the point of voting for either of you? I find Kuru's vote for Mac more suspicious than a tiebreaker. At the last second, he votes for someone not even in the running? Why?

Your point about Kuru is good, but I'd like to point out that your vote was thrown away. Nogrod was slated to die anyways, since we don't have double lynches, and he had reached the total first. The only ways he could have lived is if someone had voted for Eomer\, or someone else had retracted either their vote for Nogrod and voted elsewhere, or retracted and voted for Eomer, three things which were unlikely to happen. So all you did was vote for someone who was already about to be lynched. A nice way to avoid the appearance of throwing away while still throwing away.

[Valier]

Well this has been a very quiet day! Ok so Noggie was innocent, as I was sure he was.... Now alot of peoples views have changed today. I again will update my suspect list, because this helps me to catch wolves ala Valier style.

Mac: Your change of views from yesterday to today don't seem too wolfish to me. You seem like an Ordo looking for clues. I tend to agree with you about Roa and Jenny, they are looking more suspicious as the days go by.

Mith: Well Mith I find that you have been very quiet this game. I seem to remember a time that was full of "Frothyness" So for now you are low on my list.

Jenny: Your vote does look weird when looked at today, but I agree with you about Kuru, you are however high on my list.

Eomer: I still don't know.....I just feel there is something odd going on with you....you are again high on my list.

Kitanna: Your post on Jenny and Roa heightens my suspicion of those two greatly, so for now you are low on my list.

Kuru: Another one I don't know much about. Good points have been made about you by a few and they are giving me insight...you are also high on my list.

Roa: Seems to be like herself, but you know Roa....crafty to the bone! I would not put it past her to string us along as a wolf.

So after all that...

Baddies

Jenny
Eomer
Roa
Kuru

Goodies

Mac
Mith
Kitanna

I also tend to think maybe Kuru is innocent, but he will stay on my baddie list until I think he should be moved.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Not only that, Kit, but look how quickly and easily Jenny accepted that crackpot Kuru/Macalaure theory I threw out there.

Roa, my theory holds buckets of water. I know fine well that the wolves saw Nogrod as lynching material, but the deed didn't have to be done that day. They could easily not vote for him, and try to leave him alive to cause confusion for one or two more days. It does not smack of trying to cover my tracks because I freely admitted — with a nod and a wink and a — that of course I would say this because I was a Nogrod-voter. It's hardly unusual for folks to try and allay suspicion of themselves but at least I was open about how caught up in that Nogrod mess I was.

And about Jenny's vote: it wasn't thrown away because if she had actually thrown it away and voted for Mithalwen, say, then Kuru could have sanctioned my death. So Jenny's vote was vital. I was tied on 3 votes with Nogrod, and there were 2 votes left to come. Unless I am reading this wrongly, you just made a completely false statement, Roa.

Mac, I don't see what the problem is. One can have respect for a theory or opinion even though he may ultimately conclude that it is wrong.

[JennyHallu]

Roa: my vote was not a throwaway vote, as Kuru had yet to vote. I had no way of knowing what he would do.

EDIT: X'ed with Eomer

[Mithalwen]

Sorry for quietness sleep/work/traffic... first real chance to post though had a quick read at lunchtime.. need to have a retrospective look to say anything of consequence but given that our only hope is to find three wolves straight and that the wolves only have to get any innocent lynched to win.... It needs to be really a case of finding 3 wolves not 1. Not too hopeful since there are far too many people around I know to be subtle wolves to have any confidence in anyone else's innocence

For the record silence wasn't frothyness - speaking without actually saying anything was frothyness..and since you were on my tail then I had to do what I had to do...

Anyway must catch up and find out what has been happening or not.

[JennyHallu]

I have thought Kuru looked wolvish for his noncommital tactics since day one. I did not say that I absolutely thought both Kuru and Mac were wolves, just that such a theory was possible. The exchange between the two made me nervous mostly because Kuru has avoided any sort of active exchange all game.

Apparently however, being consistent in a suspicion is suspicious.

I think Kuru is a wolf, and I want him lynched.

[JennyHallu]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

For the record silence wasn't frothyness - speaking without actually saying anything was frothyness..and since you were on my tail then I had to do what I had to do...

This phrasing seems really odd. Why do you feel you have to shake people off your tail, Mith? No one except for me has voiced any strong suspicion of you all game, and certainly nothing has been done about that suspicion. I don't think you've even garnered a vote.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Mith

For the record silence wasn't frothyness - speaking without actually saying anything was frothyness..and since you were on my tail then I had to do what I had to do...

Ah....this was only meant in jest No harm, no foul. Since you have been as quiet as myself this game, when we both are rather talkative, is what I was commenting on.


Edit: Jenny, this was from another time....long long ago. A little jumpy are we?

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Jenny

Roa: my vote was not a throwaway vote, as Kuru had yet to vote. I had no way of knowing what he would do.

Kuru had, at that point, stated suspicion of niether Nogrod nor Eomer, and so was not likely to vote for either, as he has been constant in his votes and suspicions, thus far. Anyone paying attention could have guessed that. Even Nogrod knew that he was a definite lynch.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Roa, my theory holds buckets of water. I know fine well that the wolves saw Nogrod as lynching material, but the deed didn't have to be done that day. They could easily not vote for him, and try to leave him alive to cause confusion for one or two more days.

Why? It's my experience that wolves like to get rid of the loudest players early, usually through lynching because they can, and so leave the village to lose through quietness. And just because you're openly covering your tracks doen't mean you aren't covering your tracks.

And about Jenny's vote: it wasn't thrown away because if she had actually thrown it away and voted for Mithalwen, say, then Kuru could have sanctioned my death. So Jenny's vote was vital. I was tied on 3 votes with Nogrod, and there were 2 votes left to come. Unless I am reading this wrongly, you just made a completely false statement, Roa.

You are reading it wrongly. as I just stated, it was fairly certain the Kuru would vote for someone he had already found suspicious, which wasn't you or Nogrod. All you've done is point out how Jenny saved you. Which, if you are a wolf, as I am beginning to suspect, looks rather bad for her.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna Summary (don't like summaries? don't read it. )

Day 1

1st - thinks Form is just trying to move things along with his first post, finds Nogrod and Roa more suspicious for constant rebuttals, Nogrod more so, thinks morm's plan could work, but points out some more flaws, doesn't buy Glirdan's early vote as random

2nd - Has to vote, laments not having much to go on, votes Glirdan for random vote for Form, still suspects Nogrod and Roa

Day 2

1st - Answers Jenny about vote for Glirdan, questions Nogrod about blaming others for not being involved, points out that a wolf could easily show at the end to look helpful and innocent, agrees with Kuru that Mac's post makes little sense, poinys out flaw in Kuru's reasoning

2nd - Agrees with Roa's points about Nogrod, makes a few more points about him, says her only suspicion about Form was due to activity between him and Nogrod and Roa, still concerned about wolfish activity in that, list of reactions to Form's first post, suspects Nogrod, Kuru, and Roa

3rd - Has to leave, votes Nogrod for reasons already stated,

Day 3

1st - Still suspicious of Kuru and Roa, but now also suspicious of Mac and Jenny

Kuru - first to state that Form's first post was suspicious
Mac - first post of today has her concerned, thinks either Mac or Kuru are wolves
Jenny - Looking at actions between Kuru and Jenny, suspects wolf-on-wolf action
Roa - becuase she's Roa

response to Eomer, points out flaws in his statement, more points about Jenny and her sudden suspicion of Nogrod

2nd - response to Jenny, narrowed suspects down to Kuru and Jenny, votes Jenny

[Macalaure]

First, I have to say, that Kitanna's posts today make actually sense and seem quite un-wolfish to me. Now I have to look for a new top suspect...

Second, the fact that Kuru threw away his vote is irrelevant: there was nothing reasonable he could have done with it at that time. I don't really buy his explanation for not being around earlier.

Kitanna's mention of Jenny and Kuru possibly doing wolf-on-wolf suspicions are interesting. What if the two and Eomer are the wolves? What horror must have befallen the two seeing that the to-them-known innocent Nogrod and their pal Eomer were at a draw and they were the last left to vote? Both managed to get around it, securing Nogrod's death and Eomer's survival.
This is just a theory, so don't jump at me for it.

Mac, I don't see what the problem is. One can have respect for a theory or opinion even though he may ultimately conclude that it is wrong.

Giving reasons for dismissing a respected theory has never done any harm.

edit: cross-posted with Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna Analysis

Kitanna has been rather quiet, but as she's always quiet, I don't find this terribly suspicious. If nothing else, she's been consistent in suspicions, votes, and opinions, though some have evolved as the game has progressed. She seemed a little eager to jump on the suspicion of Nogrod stated by myself and a few others, which looks bad. Unfortunately, I can't find much else besides that. This doesn't lower her in my suspicion, but it doesn't raise her, either.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

Ah....this was only meant in jest No harm, no foul. Since you have been as quiet as myself this game, when we both are rather talkative, is what I was commenting on.


Edit: Jenny, this was from another time....long long ago. A little jumpy are we?

Oh I know Val I replied in the same spirit .... I was a wolf then as we both understood hence there was no harm in using that expression. However it has indeed produced an interesting response ......

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Mith

However it has indeed produced an interesting response ......

Ah...Agreed. Now perhaps a little insight into the brain of Valier and why she sometimes says the crazy things she says.

[Roa_Aoife]

Votes for Nogrod

Kitanna
Eomer
Roa
Jenny

Votes for Eomer

Valier
Mac
Nogrod

I'm going to get started on this list with Eomer, and see if I have time for more. I ask someone else to analyze me, and are there any volunteers to help me with the rest? A group of several would be good so we know we don't have a wolf trying to skew the results.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

Ah...Agreed. Now perhaps a little insight into the brain of Valier and why she sometimes says the crazy things she says.

Well desperate times call for desperate measures and since the Fat Lady maybe on the point of starting her vocalise - the agent provocatueuse thing is as good a strategy as any....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I actually do find it unlikely that no wolf voted for Nogrod; all I was really trying to get across was that Nogrod was likely to be lynched without major help from the wolves.

Jenny's vote again. She effectively had the decision thrust upon her (if we are to totally dismiss the possibility that Kuruharan might change his mind). Nogrod or Eomer, Nogrod or Eomer. She votes one way or the other and pretty much dooms one of the individuals. How on earth can you read that as a throwaway vote? What possible meaning can that term have if you are to define it thusly?

And if I'm a wolf, then Jenny obviously saved me and is likely a wolf. But if I'm not a wolf, you can't ignore Jenny at all. She looks suspicious to me.

There is only one person in the village whose innocence I feel confident in, and that is Kitanna.

I feel like voting for any one of you others. By the way, Mith, it's not as hopeless as you make out. We can afford to slay another innocent today.

[JennyHallu]

Didn't realize you two were talking about a past game. Very confused.

[JennyHallu]

We can only afford to slay an innocent today if we nab the three wolves one after another for the rest of the game. We are getting down to the wire here.

If we slay an innocent today we wake up tomorrow with 3 wolves and only four innocents.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I feel like voting for any one of you others. By the way, Mith, it's not as hopeless as you make out. We can afford to slay another innocent today.

How? There are eight of us now. 5 ordos 3 wolves.

lynch an innocent and we are 4/3

And innocent will die tonight
Tomorrow morning we are 3/3 and the wolves will win." if the number of wolves out weighs or matches those of the ordinary camp members the game is over."

[Valier]

Ummm I thought there are eight of us left in the village? If we lynch an Ordo today, we loose another during the night then there is six. Then the roles are tied at three and three. Does the game not end when it gets there?

[JennyHallu]

There are nine villagers, not eight.

[Mithalwen]

I did a flow chart while I was at work ( can't log on but scribbling on print out paper looks industrious and it didn't take lomg..) and the only possible village win scenario is a hat-trick..starting now.

[Roa_Aoife]

Jenny's vote again. She effectively had the decision thrust upon her (if we are to totally dismiss the possibility that Kuruharan might change his mind). Nogrod or Eomer, Nogrod or Eomer. She votes one way or the other and pretty much dooms one of the individuals. How on earth can you read that as a throwaway vote? What possible meaning can that term have if you are to define it thusly?

If you agree that Kuru was unlikely to change his mind as suddenly as Jenny did, then she voted for someone already going to die. We don't have double lynches in this game, and Nogrod reach the highest number of votes first. Her vote made no difference in the outcome, she might as well have voted for someone she actually thought was guilty then one of two people she wasn't sure about. After all, you chose not to get involved with Form and Glirdan. Why couldn't she have done the same?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Nine villagers, I believe.

[Mithalwen]

Glirdan is listed as both living and dead......

But I think we are truly eight.

Eomer
Kit
Kuru
JH
Mith
Mac
RA
Val

[Roa_Aoife]

Jenny's right, we have 9 villagers, so it's 6-3. Technically we could lynch an innocent to day and still survive, but we would have to lynch a wolf tomorrow for certain, or we lose. But Mith is right in one repect- to win we have to pull a hat-trick as early as tomorrow. It's a risk I'd rather not take, since the wolves have been rather good at avoiding us up till now. That someone would suggest it's okay for us to lose another innocent makes me rather uncomfortable.

EDIT: Cross-posted. Never mind, Mith's right. Oh dear...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

We're picking at bones here, Roa. I suppose that, given the likelihood of Jenny not suddenly finding something particularly suspicious about Nogrod or me, and the probability of Kuruharan not doing something similar, Jenny's vote can be construed as effectively meaningless. It's definitely not a throwaway vote, though. Kuruharan's vote was a throwaway because it affected the lynching not at all; Jenny's vote was not a throwaway, because it ultimately decided who would be lynched.

[Mithalwen]

Now is not keeping proper track of the players a mark of innocence or guilt? I would incline to the latter since the true innocents are trying to work out the wolves and are liable to have their own lists and charts whereas our wolves are happy to kill any innocent especially since they have no gifteds to worry about in this camp....

[Mithalwen]

Who is the ninth villager then.. we started with 12 and 4 are dead...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Curses! You're right! The spectre of Glirdan hovers over us, authorising the vengeance we so truly deserve!

[Macalaure]

8, Glirdan is still in Valesse's list, but his corpse doesn't count.

Eomer is throwing a whole lot of red flags at me at the moment. He defends Jenny's vote of yesterDay, yet he is strongly suspicious of her. His reasons for it are exclusively the reasons others, especially Kitanna, gave (I don't count that crackpot thing). Are you trying to throw us off the trail of your fellow wolf? You leave no trail about who you will vote for toDay, leaving me highly excited. Please, care to share your suspicions with us all if you want to catch wolves.

edit: cross-posted with a lot of you

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think this game is ending with today's vote.

I'm just going to say it. I think the wolves have played very well. I have no strong suspicions and, like I said, there is only one person in this whole village who I can single out as being more or less suspicious than the others.

Mac, I defend Jenny's vote because it's worth defending, especially against the slightly weak accusations. And I thought Kitanna made good points about her. Where did I say I am strongly suspicious of Jenny? I said I was suspicious of her, but then I am suspicious of everyone besides Kitanna.

[Macalaure]

You said you're suspicious of everybody, yet you pointed out Jenny. That made strong suspicion to me.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Considering the voting...

++ROA_AOIFE

Eager to get Formendacil out, and she's also the sole Nogrod voter ( ). Also, her slightly bizarre murmurs about Jenny don't make any sense.

For this reason, I say that Jenny is innocent.

Other wolves: probably.....Kuruharan, and.....Valier. *shrugs shoulders*

I know I've earned the trust of no-one ( ) but this time I really am innocent. Come on. Why would I would be a wolf again. Common sense, people.

Good night! This is too stressful for my liking. It's no fun being clueless.

[Roa_Aoife]

she's also the sole Nogrod voter

Everything else aside, what?

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

For this reason, I say that Jenny is innocent.

.

Begin to think you both guilty.... really have ever wolves had to look at the village less? Seer has to reveal self day 1 and names innocent giving wolves 2 no-brainer night kills.

Sure innocents would not be so slipshod............

Inclined to think Roa innocent ... butneed to read and keep getting distracted.

I don't think the wolves have had to play that well so far - especially considering most players in this strong village have been successful wolves previously - Forms Day 1 weariness played into thier hands - and remember they could PM all that time - Praising yourself Eomer?

In small basic games the villages best hopes are careless wolves and a good run from the seer...