WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[the phantom]

I'm in the midst of reading over TiG X right now.... Tell me, did any of you post PM's at the end?

Yes. I used to write a review after every game of WW I was in. In this post, I have a link to the page containing my review. It's public knowledge.

[the phantom]

Okay, now I'll quickly explain the comment I made earlier.

Originally Posted by me

For right now, I'll just say that from the voting alone, Valier looks suspicious. Anguirel, Diamond, and Mac also make votes that would be the logical vote for a WP to make at the time it was cast. Firefoot's too, though a bit less so.

Why are their votes Penguinish, you ask?

Here are my reasons for suspecting their votes (in order from most suspicious to least).

1) Valier
She voted for Anguirel when the voting stood at-
Lalaith-4
Kitanna-3
Boro-2
Roa-1
Ang-1

She cast the vote when there were only three non-voters left. At that point, Lalaith had not revealed, and so it was a solid bet that, with two people already above him, Boro was safe, and thus a fellow Penguin's vote was not necessary to save him. A smart penguin would probably not vote for Lal or Kit (don't want to be part of lynching an innocent), would not vote for Boro (too risky to vote for him at that point), and would not vote for someone who had no votes at all (it would look like a throwaway vote).

The perfect scenario would be to vote for a Penguin with only one vote. It would create seperation without much of a risk. Is that what happened? Are Valier and Ang Penguins? We'll find out eventually.

2) Anguirel
He cast a very early vote for Eonwe. That's not a huge risk though, because we have retractable votes. As soon as Boro received a vote, Ang switched his vote to Kitanna, tying her for the early lead with Lalaith at two votes a piece. Padding Lalaith's lead would've been a bit too bold for a Penguin, so Ang did the next best thing and elevated another innocent into the lead.

3) Diamond
When Boro moved up to two votes with Kit and just behind Lal (who had three), Di stepped in and bumped Lal back up to a two point lead.

4) Mac
When Mac steps in it is a decent bet that Boro is safe (down 4-2 to Lal), and so Mac votes for Kit, bumping her up from 2 to 3. That seems like the sort of thing a Penguin would do. Instead of voting for the leader and getting the hands dirty, or appearing like you're trying to pad the lead to save a fellow penguin, you instead elevate another innocent up to near the top.

5) Firefoot
She was the first to stack her vote onto someone who already had a vote. Also, she never tried to retract despite the fact that she had voted for the Seer. That doesn't sound like Ff (though I guess it's possible she was just busy).

[Lalaith]

Lal is lying a blue streak and all three were once more teammates

Now wouldn't that be fun. But alas, no. This is my last Day among you...I will die, Di, tonight, at the hands of those avian monstrosities.
Speaking of which, (ie the fact that we were all teammates) I too have my opinions on Boro as a wolf, although no-one seems to have had the courtesy to ask me for them, ahem.
I think Boro's wolvish behaviour would depend on who his team-mates were. The plan, when we were all wolves together that time, was that phantom would do his usual thing, and I would lie low. This seemed to work, so he never had to attack either of us, although I remember him saying he would certainly have no compunction in rounding on one of us if necessary. He would also I think quite understand if, say, a Roa-style wolf decided to attack him.
What I do find unlikely is that he would go on about Mac's innocence in that obvious way if Mac were one of his team-mates.

I like your list Phantom. In Ang's defence, I would repeat that his defence of me was not unexpected. A guilty Ang might have copied this behaviour possibly, voted for Kit saying "I hope this saves Lalaith", and then disappeared pleading revision duties or something. But I don't think he would have stuck around trying to convince everybody else, as well, in the way he did. But I could be wrong.
(And if I am, I will make a point of calling him Angurl-iel for a long time after this.)

[Lalaith]

she saves her retraction for possibly retracting on herself, and in the next it's "I need to remain alive - only I can save Lal."

Again, I feel I must defend the brave, dead Kit. She had to say she was prepared to retract to herself, otherwise she would have looked extremely WP-ish and we would have lynched her anyway.

I also must give credit to Roa's very useful postings today, - but also giving credit to her WW brilliance, she is one of the few players here who could carry off the double-act of being so helpful and still being a WP.

[Anguirel]

I must say, Kitanna's death scene was one of the most...disturbing I've ever read. Mindlessness. Urgh. Certainly, penguins that fester kill far worse than wolves.

Now that the phantom is a proven innocent, I have a cunning plan. phantom me hearty, be as utterly patronising, superior and irritating as possible. Then maybe the two remaining recreant scum won't be able to resist temptation, will kill you next Night and grant Lalaith another dream. Hmph. Maybe not.

More seriously, I have a good deal of conduct to explain last night. The question that seems to be being posed most widely is: what was the point of that first vote for Eonwe?

Well, I said it was shoddy at the time. Both Enca and Naria were admittedly as quiet or quieter than Eonwe, so my stated reasoning of Eonwe's silence was bilge. I can only plead the following facts-

1. I was in a great hurry. It was developing into rather a tricky evening. Ergo I had little time for analysis.

2. At that point I actually wanted to accuse Kitanna, but felt doing so without devoting time to building a proper case would be a cop-out. Eonwe was my back up. (Of course, I ended up voting for Kitanna on pretty dodgy evidence anyway, in the event, due to mistaken hype about the deadline.)

3. I was pretty sure Enca would turn up and contribute later, while Eonwe-who I know as a veteran deadline-dodger-might well have already said his peace. And as for Naria, to be honest I'd forgotten she was playing...though as it turned out she certainly made the final moments rather more dramatic...

So, yes, last night was a total mess, probably the greatest disgrace I've mired myself in since the Shamville days. What did I say about Boromir again?

"Given the extreme frailty of the evidence against him, it's quite odd that he's bothering to defend himself at all."

At the time I thought it was rather a bon mot. Doh.

I think, however, that my suspicions of Diamond may not be quite so wildly misguided. More on that anon.

[Lalaith]

Further to my previous post about Kitanna having to reveal: rather than ponder the wherefores of this, we would be better employed inspecting the circumstances which forced her out of the closet.
I'm talking about the people who were hanging around at the end of deadline, but not coming forward, once I had revealed. An honest person would, under such circumstances, immediately declare their presence, and suggest/ask how their vote might best be put to use, or perhaps more impulsively, put that vote to use immediately.

I will, later, go back and inspect the course of events, with timings, to get a better grasp of this.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

The rule about not using pms to verify what someone is saying- it seems fairly obvious to me that the rule is meant to guard against someone giving a direct quote from the pm sent to them by Nogrod or Lommy that assigned them their role. I doubt they had in mind a villager recalling a past conversation with another villager that was not in any way written with this current village in mind.

the phantom is right. All past conversations between any one of you can be used. Obviously the moral question is not removed with a ruling like this - so if someome has sent you a private message, s/he has assumed it to be private... but that's another matter already.

The ruling only denies the use of any PM's that you have sent or received from the mods just before or during the game.

[Firefoot]

First off, I do have a lot to say. But I am currently dead tired (was up all night - long story), and many of my comments will be waiting for later - hopefully sometime toDay. Some of my thoughts have already been stated by phantom and Roa especially - his point about Valier was particularly resonant. I also noticed Ang's vote as being rather suspicious, but based on his posting, I'm not at all convinced he is guilty. I'm thinking it was more or less bad timing for him.

Also, she never tried to retract despite the fact that she had voted for the Seer. That doesn't sound like Ff (though I guess it's possible she was just busy).

Take the busy option. After I voted, I left.

Something more comprehensive later. I'm not thinking at all right now.

[Lalaith]

Nine of our 15 were definitely around after I revealed last night:
Kitanna, Lalaith and Phantom, although that's not relevant as we are all PIs.
Roa (who voted for Boro just after 10pm, saying she had to leave, but then stuck around)
Jenny (who had already used her retractable at the time I revealed)
Anguirel (who left just after the revelation and before voting deadline, if he is to be believed)
Naria, Valier, Macalaure.
Not around, apparently, or at least not posting: Eonwe (the only non-voter), Enca, Firefoot, Diamond, Spawn, (all of whom I think had said, as they voted, that they were going and not coming back) and the werepenguin Boro himself.
I revealed at 10.42pm.
Kitanna comes out and says she is around, but is understandably reluctant to change her vote to herself. Anguirel says good luck and good night (how could you have left when it was getting so exciting, Ang?)
Valier was the first to place or change her vote after I revealed, at 10.48pm. She went straight for Boromir, rather than ask what to do or plump for the Kit option. Does that make her look more, or less, guilty? I am inclined to say slightly less. Kit was ahead in the voting, and she had gone for Kit, (who had not said she was the ranger at this point) Valier could have subsequently argued that it seemed the only way to save the Seer at the time.
At 10.51pm, a whole bunch of stuff happens all at once. Kit reveals she is the Ranger. Mac retracts from Kit to Boro (but remains suspicious) and Naria comes on and makes her interesting vote, which she later says was a cross-posting mistake.
Roa wonders if she (Naria) does not believe me, and tells her "if you do not vote to save the Seer, we will know what you are." (Interesting that both Mac and Naria are puzzled why Kit revealed, although they were both around right at deadline and knew how tense things got...)
Then Naria changes her vote, Phantom comes on and votes for Boro, Kit retracts to Boro and everything falls into place.

[Anguirel]

To be completely honest, I bade you goodnight at post #105, as there was little more I could do or say, but followed avidly till post #120, when my, er, weariness came upon me [network shut down].

[JennyHallu]

Like I said last night, I'm not going to be around toDay. So this is my vote:

++Mac, just Mac.

Because I really think Boro's posts point to him as a Penguin.

[Anguirel]

Ooo. Impetuous, but I don't see much wrong with that per se . This quiet day needs a bit of shaking about if we're to get something useful and considered out of it.

My philippic against Diamond is taking some time to brew. But it is coming...

[Macalaure]

Yay! My first vote!

I somehow feel the need to explain what I did last day and what was happening from my point of view. There was a lot of cross-posting, I hope I get it all right.


When I voted, it was Lal 4, Kit 2, Boro 2.

To me, Lal felt weird, but not necessarily guilty, Kit was suspicious and Boro looked quite innocent.

So, to give Lal a better chance of surviving, I voted for Kitanna, deeming her the lesser loss. (34 min until deadline)

Then, Valier chose Ang, making Lal reveal herself. (18 min until deadline)

I was pretty stunned, but there was still time, 3 votes, and a lot of retractions left. I was pondering my options, preferring to go after Boromir.

Valier retracted to Boromir next: Lal 4, Boro 3, Kit 3. Thus I retracted to Boromir as well, making it 4-4-2.
That I made Roa's and Lalaith's possible retractions useless by this didn't appear to me then. I was just hoping that somebody more will choose Boro (didn't expect Kitanna to do that, as I still didn't trusted her).

While I typed, Naria stepped in and Kitanna revealed herself. (9 min until deadline)
Had I retracted earlier, it would have taken pressure off her. She could have retracted to Boromir, put him in the lead and everything would have been fine.
Let's assign bad timing to Mordor, where it belongs.

The vote of phantom and the retractions of Naria and Kitanna then saved the day.

Rereading it all, it was quite close. I didn't feel it that bad at the time.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Further to my previous post about Kitanna having to reveal: rather than ponder the wherefores of this, we would be better employed inspecting the circumstances which forced her out of the closet.

Seconded, though I'm still at a complete loss about Post 125 (before?).

[Lalaith]

I expect she meant she'd switch to Boro. But don't agonize over it, she WAS the Ranger, it's official...

[Lalaith]

I just had a thought, about how penguins might vote, with regard to the new rules about the Logical Hunter.

If the hunter is lynched, her pick will go with her if s/he has voted for the hunter on that particular Day.

So, with this in mind, a penguin might be reluctant to be on the "winning team" when it comes to lynch-voting, as an innocent lynch victim might be the hunter.

So rather than bandwaggoning an innocent for lynching, a penguin might prefer to vote for one of his own, particularly if they don't appear to be at risk of lynching, or to vote for an innocent who *isn't* going to be lynched.

Now, Boro of course voted for me, an innocent who looked in real danger of being lynched. Maybe he realised that I was probably the Seer rather than the Hunter. Maybe he was telling the truth when he said he didn't pay enough attention to rules.
But it's worth bearing in mind.

[Anguirel]

Analysis: (I used not to do these because they're exhausting. I now think they might be less exhausting and a wee bit more to the point than the typical Ang-forged denunciation that is so close to your hearts. Don't worry, I'll follow with one anyway)

#9-gag. Good excuse not to retract if something comes up-as it did. (Sorry Diamond, I am always infuriated when people attack me for my jokes and you ought to be too, but I think it has to be said.)

#12-"I wish" could actually be a blatant Cobbler hint, but I reckon it's just repartee. Despite her later claim to boredom with the subject, she plunges into the rule-flicking here with merry abandon. I don't see her Cobbler comment as that suspicious though actually, if read in contest. Interesting that Boro picked up on it first, incidentally. Probably quite a good idea for a werepenguin to direct a ropey attack that's clearly a shambles at one of his comperes.

#40-the notorious "I'm so bored" post.

AUDREY "DIMWE" HEPBURN: Oohhh, do let's stop quawrelling about this tedious things. They're so petty...

She has a chat with Boro that doesn't contain much, relating slightly to past lives; could be a relatively innocuous looking sign of linkage. But it's the boredom that worries me:

One creature only is so foul and false/He is Ennui!

Ennui is indeed a powerful thing. It appeals to peer-pressure and stuff and easily gets sympathy. It's a bit conspiratorial, a laugh behind the hand, even a flirtation. An accusation of caution and possible boredom by Spawnowen had even got me het up at about the same time. And look how many people felt accused by Diamond's statement or agreed with it: Macalaure, Valier, Boromir, Roa (if I remember rightly)...

By the by-Boromir's apparent judgement of Diamond was one of qualified suspicion. IE, surprise, he hedged his bets and blurred.

#59-quick analysis. Predicts Kitanna's innocence. Doesn't suspect Boro. More anti Lalaith than not.

#65-reinforces suspicion of Lalaith

#89-teases me (valid)...still bored...can only be bothered to analyse in light of solid knowledge. Irrelevant re-cap of previous wereattack, but valid poin tabout duels obscuring culprits.

#93-votes Lalaith for "twisting words". Looks forward to some clear evidence-presumably Lalaith's corpse. She can't retract this one! A bit hasty and vote-happy? Might have a reason for it

#139-prempts (not particularly likely) dream of herself. As innocent, eager to stop pedants like me accusing her. As werebird, cynically certain she wasn't dreamed of and increasing cred. Hmm. Hunter ramble. I must say, Diamond, it's a bit...boring? Heads off to analyse Boromir at the speed of sound

#142-despite quip, shows quite strong faith in Macalaure's innocence. Says her gut feelings are negated due to recent events. Points out she was right about Kitanna -yes, indeed you were, missy.

#152-waits for Phantom's views. Later wonders about PMs. (I find the WWX stuff a bit of a red herring. Every village is a new page, to my mind, with new tactics.)

#160-puts faith in lumping names in lists and consistency from game to game. Isn't this is all a bit of a massive distraction? Qualifies her views though. Does bring up possibility of Lal and phantom as in cahoots, which is frankly pretty loony, but what do you expect...

Right, well, that's about it. What I think of it coming up.

[Anguirel]

Diamond's voting-which is what you pure statisticians out there might regard as the crux-is quite definitely frivolous at best and dangerous and worst. Her first vote is so conspicuous and natural and funny that it seems to be challenging you to dare to criticise it. Her second vote, on the other hand, is rather drab and sly and not particularly coherently supported. It puts Lalaith, as the phantom notes, well ahead of the other candidates again. It's consensus. Anguirels don't much like consensus.

Her interaction with Boro reveals a typical penguin-pack commander relationship as exercised by a loudmouth like Boro. Not very well constructed suspicion on one side. Total acceptance on the other. She seems to predict Kitanna's innocence and may be repeating the trick with Macalaure.

Since Lalaith's revelation she's been apologetic, maybe a bit over-anticipatory, especially with that remark suspecting, or saying she suspects, that she's been proven innocent.

And it's all in such a delightfully care-free manner.

I'm afraid my first vote this evening is going to have to go to you, Bright Young Thing. I know my performance looks like a one-track advance today, but I have also examined Roa a bit and she still seems a figure exuding fewer Machiavellian vibes.

I will again keep my second vote back and aim to return at about nine or half-past (my time, one hour earlier GMT apparently) to check nothing's happened requiring some retracting, as per yesterday. In the mean time, it being the Saturday evening after, ahem, musial performances [exams] I will have some revelry to do.

++DIAMOND

Oh, and, my friends, generally, speak up. Today is so quiet I'm suspecting we've lost more than one Cartesian soul...

[Eonwe]

Here I am, with my head spinning a bit. I'll hope to make the best of it though.

Originally Posted by B88

So now onto what I was talking about before and the kind of feel I got off of people's post. These are the ones that to me, as of right now have a more innocent look to them:

Spawn
Jenny
Eonwe
Valier
Macalaure

Of course, it could go either way, but I would be willing to bet that there is a wolf thrown in there. But maybe not. Just something to keep in mind.

I'm gonna have to wait a few days, perhaps, before I can form any real suspicions. I like to let the evedence build up and look for inconsistancies.

[the phantom]

I've got to leave (probably for the day), so here's my last minute stuff. I'm not that concerned with getting all my thoughts out there because I know I'm going to be alive tomorrow, and I should have more time late tomorrow.

Everyone should examine posts #33 and #46 made by Boro and try to guess where he is hiding his fellow Penguins on his lists.

Here is a summary of what Boro says as well as my feelings about Boro's words about his fellow villagers.

He says Valier is innocent in both of them, and I already said that Valier's vote yesterday was a possible Penguinish vote. Feeling- makes me suspect Valier.

He mainly argues with Diamond. Feeling- I'm not sure, but leaning towards not suspecting Di.

Naria was largely absent, and so he says nothing except that he'd like to see more from her. Feeling- I can't get much from this, but I don't suspect Naria.

He pegs Mac as an innocent newbie in both posts. Feeling- Mac could be guilty (I already said his vote might be suspicious), but I'd place others in front of him.

He says that Firefoot could be a dangerous enemy, but a useful villager, and so shouldn't be lynched early. He also liked her advice, but said he wouldn't be surprised if she was a wolf. Feeling- Boro's reaction to Firefoot makes me suspicious, and she was also one of my possible Penguinish votes.

He says Jenn doesn't sit right early on, but then moves her to innocent. Feeling- It makes me slightly suspicious. If you'll notice, Jenn also voted against Roa when it became clear that Roa was not going to give up her attack on Boro.

He mainly argues with Roa, and ends up listing her as a high suspect. Feeling- I could be wrong, but the argument didn't seem contrived. I think they were truly in opposition.

He said Spawn was a bit fishy and perhaps tying herself with an innocent (me), but then moved her to especially innocent status mainly because of her helpful input on Anguirel. Feeling- It doesn't make me suspicious, and it makes me less suspicious of Ang.

He said that Ang hadn't done anything strange early, but then he latched onto Spawn's suspicions but says he'll refrain from taking action against him till he's back. Feeling- As I said earlier, Boro's reaction to the Spawn-Ang thing puts them lower on my list.

He doesn't say much about Eonwe, except that he's probably innocent. Feeling- Could be hiding a penguin amidst the innocent, but there's not enough for me to go on.

He doesn't say much about Enca and leaves her undecided. Feeling- I don't have much to go on.

The proven innocents, Lal, Kit, and I-

He attacks Lal and tries to get her lynched.

He thinks Kit might be the Cobbler.

He thinks I appear innocent, but says that you can never be sure with me.

So anyway, there's a bit of info for you. Put it to use if you want. Keep in mind that I know less than nearly everyone (because the Seer dream was about me, therefore I can't rule out an extra person like the rest of you can).

So, my choices are in order Valier, Jenn, Firefoot, Mac, and Ang.

I'll vote for...

+ + Valier

[Encaitare]

Here are the two people whom I believe are innocent:
1. Roa, as I explained in post #159.
2. Mac, for several reasons. Firstly, his newbie questions and challenging of the phantom suggest that he is an ordo. Secondly, after Jenny voted for him toDay, he said,

Originally Posted by Mac, post #173

Yay! My first vote!

I feel as though any werecreature, especially a first-timer, would have a feeling more along the lines of "oh, crap". Could be a clever bluff, but I don't think so. And thirdly, the phantom is a known innocent and a TiG veteran, and he suggested Mac's innocence (though he also places Mac's vote as mildly suspicious). As an unknown, phantom is dangerous, but as a known innocent I trust him.

Voting thus far:
Macalaure: 1 (JennyHallu)
Diamond18: 1 (Anguirel)
Valier: 1 (the phantom)

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I think Boro's wolvish behaviour would depend on who his team-mates were. The plan, when we were all wolves together that time, was that phantom would do his usual thing, and I would lie low. This seemed to work, so he never had to attack either of us, although I remember him saying he would certainly have no compunction in rounding on one of us if necessary. He would also I think quite understand if, say, a Roa-style wolf decided to attack him.

Yes, after reading tp's WWX summary (PMs, mainly) it's seems you were quite the well oiled machine. But, seeing as things worked out so well for him in that game, Boro might be inclined to suggest a similar strategy to his wolves. A sort of if it ain't broke don't fix it mentality. On another flip side, knowing that both you and tp were innocents in this game might make him wary of behaving in a manner the two of you would instantly pick up on.

Yet, all possibilities to the contrary aside, I find it intereseting that the people Boro's historical habits shed a bit of suspicion on have also made suspicious votes in their own right, this game.

I think today I may almost certainly vote for one of the following:

Valier
Jenny
Spawn
Eonwe

Seeing as Spawn is gone for RL reasons, I hesitate a bit to condemn her, but then, I haven't done any sort of analysis on hers posts. Eonwe as a non-voter is a mite suspect, seeing as he could have conveinently maintained his low profile instead of making a stand on the endangered Seer/Ranger issue. My gut feeling on Jenny was to not be suspicious, but I've thought "Oh no, she can't possibly be evil again," before, and been wrong, so I'll have to try and be more analytical about her, methinks.

At any rate, should time permit, I'd like to do at least some mini-analysis on those four people. I've got 3 hours, I'll see what I can do with it.

Oh, and note, that list is taken from people Boro thought innocent, but I have left out Mac, because I'm sufficiently confident in his innocence for toDay and don't feel like analyzing him.

As to Ang and his... er, philippic... against me (does this have something to do with horses or tp? ) he seems rather genuine and that coupled with Boro's stated suspicion of him makes me feel him innocent. However, I do have bad memories of laughing at a certain Scotsman's description of me in a past game and thinking it made him seem less suspicious not more, and he turned out to be a wolf, so maybe I should overcompensate in a paranoid way and suspect Ang anyway. Yeah, try and follow that logic, I dares ya.

[Macalaure]

Proved innocent: Lalaith, phantom

Innocent to me: spawn, Roa

More innocent than guilty: Anguirel, Diamond, Enca

undecided about: Eonwe, Naria

more guilty than innocent: Valier

guilty in my book: JennyHallu


++JennyHallu


Now, over to the why:

Jenny has been flying under my radar yesterday. Admittedly, her vote for me made me take a closer look at her.

In her posts 15,30,34 and 39 she wanted us to not go after the cobbler and to stop the Gifted-talk. Much nonsense in there as well.

In 53 she corrects my fault and sympathises with phantom's idea, but not overly so.

66: votes for said phantom, because he thought me innocent without giving a reason. Ignores his proposal to give explanation later.

76: she's with Roa on Boromir. Obviously, not enough to make her retract her vote.

83: turns around, suspects Roa and retracts to her.

126: regrets to already have used her retraction.

155,171: suspects me and casts her vote. Only reason: my position on Boromir's list. No word about why me and none of the other ones on it.

phantom already pointed out Boro's behaviour towards her, so I won't repeat. Boromir seemed very eager to put her lower on his list.

I'm not sure Jenny is a werepenguin. Her behaviour seems a little too clueless. Maybe the cluelessness of a cobbler on a Day 1? Too intangible, too trying to not stand out. Too suspicious.

I hate to vote for somebody who won't be here today, but alas.

[Valier]

I just wanted to say I find it a bit odd that I am on quite a few suspect lists and I am confused as to why. I voted for Ang yesterday because my gut tells me he is a baddie. I would not have changed my vote from him at all, but Lalaith came out and told us Boro was a WP so since I was around of course I would change my vote to help the village. My suspects as of late are....Anguirel, Naria, Mac

I believe at least one of these is a WP and more than likely one is also the cobbler. I will try to see if I can come up with a bit more reasoning before I vote.

[Valier]

Oh and Ang.....

Why Dimwe is Dolorous

Why the use of an anagram may I ask? Are you the cobbler and your trying to mess with people like me who can't solve them?

[Diamond18]

Valier

#11

Opens with a joking predictions/stereotypes sort of post. On the surface, nothing to read any meaning into. Oh, but this is Downsian Werewolf were every joke, quip, and throwaway comment must be analyzed within an inch of its life! Haha! So, note that her opinions run to these sorts of categories (becuase you know you love the categories)

Definity bad:

Boromir
Jenny
Naria
Roa

Slightly or vaguely suspicious:

Ang
Spawn
Dimwë
Eonwe
Firefoot
Kitanna
Lalaith
tp

No opinion:

Enca
Mac

Well, that was fun, pointless, and boring all at once. Interesting to me, though, that the strongest conviction she seems to display (even jokingly) is that Boro is definitely a Werepenguin. Either her instincts are frightening even when she is only joking, or she knew this and was being frightfully bold.

#42

Here she agrees with me about Werewolf 101 to be boring. This isn't surprising, as Valier is outspokenly more of an instinct and feeling kind of a player than a strategm and theorizing sort of player, and all the WW101 fell under the strategm and theorizing. So this is not suspicious coming from Val. She promises a post with another overview of baddies/goodies, but a serious one this time.

#50

Questions tp about the arrow icon. I found this strange last game and find it strange again, but then, I have been on the board almost as long as tp has and have known him to use that icon as a calling card in any situation.

#68

Comes through with the promised "thoughts on players" post. Potential wp's are Ang, Naria, phantom. Finds Naria and Mac "iffy." Says "Jenny, Spawn, Boromir, Diamond, Firefoot are in my feels innocent list." Others she doesn't know about. So, obviously, of the known innocents she suspects tp (for his use of icon, apparently) and doesn't mention the other two. The known wp is on her likely innocents, which doesn't necessarily mean anything, to which I can attest.

#86

Here she dislikes Roa's comment when Roa says it's dangerous to assume her innocence. Not really sure what's so off about Roa's comment here, myself. It's really actually sort of a "No, duh" comment because it is dangerous to assume other people's innocence. I think it's necessary to a point but it is dangerous.

#99

Votes Ang, questioning his push to lynch Kitanna. I myself didn't like Ang's suggestion to lynch Kitanna because I thought her innocent, but perhaps this was Ang sensing Lal's Seerishness, so in a way it makes sense.

Originally Posted by Ang

The firepower in this struggle is unequal, against Lalaith , and I fear it profits none but the penguins. Are there any moderates out there willing to take a punt on Kitanna?

Things started to get rather jumbled and cross posted at that point in the Day so it's kind of hard to tell what people were thinking. But I find it interesting that she made her Ang vote even after Lal made that rather telling "Oh Diamond, not again" comment. I can tell you, even though I read that post after the deadline when I got home, it gave me a chill, sort of like the precurser to the "oh d'oh" when she came right out and said she was the Seer. So the fact that Val said, "Well I see no reason not to go with my gut on this one" and went ahead and voted Ang in that strange period between "Oh Diamond, not again" and the reveal, when a vote to save Lal would have been better, makes me question how well that gut is working.

#108

It takes her 6 minutes to change her vote after Lal reveals. I'd say that's pretty quickly, which tends to speak for innocence in my mind. I mean, she could have laid low and said that she left for the day after voting Ang. But then, being so sneaky may simply have not have occured to her and she rushed to do the good looking thing.

#134

Advocates that Lal reveal her dream.

#183

Questions why she on people's suspects lists and restates her likely trio of wp's from yesterDay. Still suspects Ang.

#184

Questions Ang on a supposed anagram. Frankly, I don't think this even is an anagram. What's it supposed to say? *scratches head*

So, my opinions.... She seems a bit suspicious in some posts then less so in others, which makes her feel a bit slippery to me. I can well understand tp's vote for her. I will take a look at some other suspects before making a decision about what to do about her.

[Anguirel]

Audrey Hepburn has it right. If there's an anagram in the title Valier brought up, I definitely didn't intend it. I can't do anagrams either. Too lazy.

It's just a heading, Valier...Dimwe is Diamond's name and dolorous means grievous, IE, guilty. I was struggling for alliteration (was thinking of dystopic. Actually should have put Descartes, that would have been quite appropriate) but it goes no further than that...as far as I can see...

[Lalaith]

Hehe. Like a fool, I've been shoving that line into various online anagram generators. You should have seen what they came up with...

[Encaitare]

I agree with Mac about Jenny... I've been a bit suspicious of her since her early vote for Mac, largely because I believe all the signs point to his innocence. I'm going to review Jenny's posts and see if her earlier posts confirm today's vote.

EDIT: cross-posted with a lot of people... Valier and everyone since.

[Valier]

Ok Ang I get it now. I still find the way you are pushing for people to get lynched is a little cobbleresque. I know you at least a little, to know that you are more than capable at rallying people to your cause. You seem to be acting mostly like yourself, but more pushy... I think it odd. As for Naria, she is a crafty player. Quiet, but she normally makes it fairly far in the game, which could be dangerous if she is a hidden baddie. Now Mac is the lowest on my list right now and I'm not quite sure what to think about him yet. I'll be back shortly. Oh and Diamond nice analysis of me (no really) But what's up with the arrow? Hee hee

[Diamond18]

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

#25

Supports tp's plan and states that even if we lynch some innocents it doesn't matter so long as we eventually get all the werepenguins. Also advocates not worrying about the Cobbler. Voices intent to take a look at Firefoot, Roa, and Ang.

#27

Counters Mac's disagreements with the whole "everyone act seerish" plan.

#35

Replies to Mac again, states she could make a case against everyone, then goes on to make a case against Ang.

#58

Says lists would be bad, talks a bit more to/about Ang.

#69

Says shes a lot suspicious of Kitanna and a little suspicious of Jenny, then votes Kitanna. Odd, why the sudden switch away from her earlier quarry?

Okay, so now after reading over that Spawn is looking rather odd to me. None of her posts really say that much, though, granted they're Day 1 posts. She seems to go after Ang then back off without much reason either way. There's an appearence of the usual Spawn incisiveness but I feel as if it's a veneer. Spawn might indeed be avian or cobblerian. I'm still hesitant to vote for her, though, because Nilp said she'd be gone and she really can't defend herself or make any more substantial Day 2 contributions to judge.

[Roa_Aoife]

Hi, everyone. I apologize for being back so late- an appointment of mine ran over.

Before I go back and do the analysis, there are some things I want to remark on:

Originally Posted by Lal

I also must give credit to Roa's very useful postings today, - but also giving credit to her WW brilliance, she is one of the few players here who could carry off the double-act of being so helpful and still being a WP.

Thank you, this is quite flattering.
Though I've discovered the fatal flaw in being a good werewolf- even when you're innocent, people think you're just being devilishly brilliant.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The ruling only denies the use of any PM's that you have sent or received from the mods just before or during the game.

Good to know. Carry on, then. (Because you needed me to say it.)

Originally Posted by Lal

Roa (who voted for Boro just after 10pm, saying she had to leave, but then stuck around)

I did leave- I left work, and I didn't know if I'd make it back through traffic before the dealine. I did, and logged back on just after Lal's reveal.

Originally Posted by Ang

Oh, and, my friends, generally, speak up. Today is so quiet I'm suspecting we've lost more than one Cartesian soul...

Blame Nogrod and Thin- the two loudest players beside Diamond and myself are watching instead of playing. *shakes fist towards sky*

Other things- I'm starting to suspect Ang's true profession is a shoe maker.

I'm not concerned about Eonwe- if he doesn't vote today he gets taken out by Mod-fire of DOOOOOM, so I suggest not wasting a vote on him.

Since I don't have much time left, I'm going to do just one analysis. If I end up having time left over, I'll try for the other. So, I'm going to look at Jenny, and if there's time, it'll be Ang.

EDIT: cross posted with last 3

[Encaitare]

Jenny still doesn't sit right with me. She voted for the phantom, whom we now know to be innocent, then retracted in favor of Roa, whom I also believe is innocent. And finally she voted for Mac on Day 2, and I feel Mac is innocent. You could call it differences of opinion, but I don't like it. Also, there is this:

Originally Posted by Jenny, Post #126

Way to go, guys. I'd have helped, but I already used my retractable.

Why does she reiterate this? It seems like the kind of thing that doesn't have to be said, and something that often gives werecreatures away is repeating certain points in the attempt to make themselves look innocent.

Originally Posted by Jenny, Post #155

No offense to your test, TP, but Boro certainly didn't expect to get killed yesterday, and it just seemed that he emphasized and re-emphasized Mac's newbieness and innocence.

TP and I have also said that Mac is innocent, and neither of us are WPs.

Roa has said that she is going to do an analysis of Jenny. It is very likely that Jenny will be receiving my vote, but I'm going to wait for this analysis in case Roa picks up something I've missed.

[Macalaure]

Would anybody bother to explain to me what that shoemaker is about?

[Diamond18]

Eonwe

I thought about skipping Eonwe and going right to Jenny, but he only has three posts so it's not like it'll take a lot of time. So:

#8

Mostly banter but is another advocate for not being concerned about the Cobbler.

#16

Very odd and unsettling reply to Boromir, in my opinion. Really. Read it and tell me this isn't strange.

#178

Repeats what has pretty much already been said about Boro's likely innocent list. Then states he'll have to wait a few DAYS for evidence to pile up before he can form any real suspicions. Days? Days?? There's already evidence out the wazi-hoo-hoo, my friend, we have 4 known players already, and even if 2 of them are dead, that give plenty of evidence to look at.

Conclusion:

Eonwe is evil and must die. Okay, to put it in a slightly less hyperbolic manner, he hasn't posted much or voted at all, hasn't given RL reasons why he hasn't posted much or voted at all, and managed to say some pretty bizarre things when he has posted. A little throwaway commenting here and there is all fine if you're at least trying to also participate, but this is just downright Gilesque in its wilful non-participation. I don't like it.

Alright, on to Jenny, though I'm running out of time.

Oh wait, I just saw this:

Originally Posted by Roa

I'm not concerned about Eonwe- if he doesn't vote today he gets taken out by Mod-fire of DOOOOOM, so I suggest not wasting a vote on him.

That's right. Okay, can we get a 100% sure confirmation from Lomgrod whether or not Eonwe is going to bite the dust toDay? He pretty much said he ain't gonna vote.

[Valier]

The cobbler=Another name for shoemaker

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Would anybody bother to explain to me what that shoemaker is about?

Cobbler.

The reasoning behind this is that a cobbler, or shoemaker, has such a horried job that it drives them to insanity and werecreature wannabe-ness. Really, I prefer the term Goose, but then, you all knew that.

[Macalaure]

Thank you, Valier (I still suspect you, nevertheless )
Not a day passes at the downs without me learning something.

One thing about Eonwe:

On Boromir's first list he's the most suspected by him.

On the second he's among the innocents. Eonwe didn't post in between the two and Boro doesn't give reasons for this move.

Edit: Thank you Di, too.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Mac

Thank you, Valier (I still suspect you, nevertheless )

As I you

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Okay, can we get a 100% sure confirmation from Lomgrod whether or not Eonwe is going to bite the dust toDay? He pretty much said he ain't gonna vote.

Miscellaneous rules (#2)
- Players who don’t post or fail to vote in two days in a row will be removed from the game.

[Valier]

I do agree with both Diamond and Mac on their points about Eonwe. He is an odd fellow in every game I've seen him play in, so his behavior is not that off, but I say if he doesn't want to vote or contribute for days that he be Mod-God killed.