Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Holbytlass]

oh, I forgot about him voting.....great, so much for thinking I was safe.

[The Only Real Estel]

I think I have my final decision but I am going to hold it a bit longer, I hope you all will not think less of me if I end up voting last (again).

I will say though, Sauce, that I'd like to hear as much compelling evidence as you have about yourself ASAP.

[The Only Real Estel]

Well, since SoN is clearly the one to be hung at this point & he is near the top of my suspect list I see no need to hold my vote longer.

I vote for ++ Son of Numenor

And I am quite confident that we've finally taken a step toward thwarting the wolves.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TORE

I think I have my final decision but I am going to hold it a bit longer ...

With the votes from Holby and Fordim, the tally stands at:

Phantom 2
Holbytlass 1
Sauce 2
SoN 5

Since there are only two votes left, it will be SoN who faces the gallows.

Originally Posted by TORE

I will say though, Sauce, that I'd like to hear as much compelling evidence as you have about yourself ASAP.

You want me to provide evidence against myself? Nah, there's enough other people doing that at the moment, thanks.

Besides, if SoN's innocent I may well survive the night, but I'm toast tomorrow.

Edit: Written before TORE's vote.

[Son of Númenor]

I suppose my fate is sealed, but I still suspect ++the phantom more than I do myself.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

On the upside Saucy, if Sono is a wolf, you will not only be hailed as a hero (by me at least) and exonerated of all suspicions (by me at least), but perhaps then you and I can start to work together to bring down the rest of these hairy brutes...

But like I said, if he's an innocent...

[The Only Real Estel]

You want me to provide evidence against myself? Nah, there's enough other people doing that at the moment, thanks.

Was I not clear enough? I meant as much compelling evidence as you have about your innocene, not your guilt. Unless of course your expression was more of a .

p.s. besides, I guess the majority of your evidence you had already posted.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by Son of Númenor

I suppose my fate is sealed, but I still suspect ++the phantom more than I do myself.

So do I....

I am really sorry Sono, but this was just the safest course of action for the villagers: I couldn't let there be a tie!!

Of course if you are a wolf: die fiend, die! To the gallows with 'im!!

[The Only Real Estel]

On the upside Saucy, if Sono is a wolf, you will not only be hailed as a hero (by me at least) and exonerated of all suspicions (by me at least), but perhaps then you and I can start to work together to bring down the rest of these hairy brutes...

On the contrary, my good Fordy. In another village around here a certain wolf was the second to vote on a teammate's guilt (the teammate was hung rather quickly) when he himself was not at all at risk. For SpM to vote SoN out does not clear him in my opinion, especially because he himself was at risk. I am not going to close my eyes & ears the next round & lynch SpM blindly, but I am hardly acquitting him when SoN turns out to be a werewolf (as I am sure he will).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I am sorry for not being on earlier to clarify the 'double lynching' question. Because I did not say anything different as regards that aspect of the game from the last game Saucepan Man moderated, I must keep the rules as he had them. Also, I did not protest yesterday when the idea of a double lynching was recalled. So if the votes are tied then 2 (or more) will be lynched.

But that does not matter today! Voting is over. Results will be posted soon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TORE

Was I not clear enough? I meant as much compelling evidence as you have about your innocene, not your guilt.

I'll save that for tomorrow, if you don't mind, if I make it that far ...

And, if I do, I shall be looking closely at you, Estel, given that you have turned up as one of the last to vote for two days running now.

[The Only Real Estel]

And, if I do, I shall be looking closely at you, Estel, given that you have turned up as one of the last to vote for two days running now.

Quite. And I will explain that tommorrow as well.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So it was decided. Suspicions of the contractor had been high since the initial murder of the philosopher. After the loss of the Seer and the brutal slaying of the Bard, the accusations had been red-hot. The village had decided: Son of Numenor must die.

Fools he muttered, as he was led to the platform. He had a damp, resigned look about him. He had expected to be killed for some hours now, but the actual deed - mere seconds away - seemed like a horrible anticlimax: a pathetic way to end his productive life.

Fools? Ha! We think not, you beast! yelled the villagers. They were utterly convinced they had bagged a wolf, and the sense of purpose and drive was almost tangible: it was as if the village had been lifted from the careful deliberations of the day, and the clear majority which they had reached.

Sono offered no more words. He let the hangman slip the noose around his neck. The lever was pulled, and he fell and his neck was broken.

Silence.....the villagers crowded round to get a closer look.

He's.....smiling! shouted one in disbelief.

And it was true. Son of Numenor had ended his life amid ruthless and brutal accusations: he was glad to be rid of this village which he had served so well, and which had rewarded him thus.

The villagers stood watching him for a long time. And then some began to cry....


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 8


NIGHT 3 has started, now it is 3:20 PM GMT (that's 10:20 AM EST) and (9:20 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours' time, or sooner if all night-time business is received by me before then.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers woke early again, and the weather fit the mood. It was just so grey. Everyone looked most unhappy.

But when they gathered together outside the Town Hall, they recalled a faint glimmer of the hope they had early yesterday; because no-one was missing.

Hark! this day promised oddities, for the Werewolves had killed nobody last night.

Here was a puzzle...


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2

Score: - (after considering the advice of a previous moderator in great detail)

Werewolves: 3 (?)
Villagers: 8 (?)


DAY 3 has begun, now that it is 3PM GMT (that's 10AM EST) and (9AM Central). It will end in 24 hours time, or earlier if a majority vote is reached before then.

[Kuruharan]

Hmmmm…ominous this is. Either our guardian guarded or our cursed villager defected. Thankfully we still have something to go on.

I assume that I hardly need say anything. However, just in case the point has yet to be driven home…

I assume everyone noted who took the lead in the “Let’s hang Son of Numenor” charge. (I swear, it is almost like he’s got hooks through everyone’s jaws). Also how after I pointed out the role he actually had in Evisse’s death, he ran away from that issue like it was a leper.

[The Saucepan Man]

Zounds! A puzzle indeed.

My guess is that the Guardian was successful last night. Then again, this is simply based upon my growing belief that I am the Cursed Villager, so unintentionally effective have I been in furthering the Werewolves' plans. After all, I bear the responsibility for having pushed the village towards hanging two complete innocents, one of whom was our poor Seer.

I would suggest that you all go ahead and vote for me now, only that would be to kill another innocent Villager (for that is what I am). Mind you, if I am the Cursed Villager, you might be doing yourselves a favour even then.

I am not going to offer up any thoughts, theories or opinions, not for now anyway, as all I have said to date seems to have led the village towards ruin.

So, if you don't mind, I shall offer up my sincere apologies and go and spend what may very well prove to be my last day with a nice comforting barrel of Saucepan's Best Bitter.

[mormegil]

Interesting!

After my normal night of study, prayer and meditation I took a bit longer to meditate on our current plight and have done some research about the happenings yesterday that I would enjoy sharing. It's a bit long so for that I apologize but ask that you read in and glean knowledge from it.

Here is the list of who voted for whom. (In order)

Azaleia voted for the phantom
Kuruharan voted for The Saucepan Man
Mormegil voted for the phantom
The Saucepan Man voted for Son of Numenor
Shelob voted for The Saucepan Man
Oddwen voted for Holbytlass
Firefoot voted for Son of Numenor
The phantom voted for Son of Numenor
Holbytlass voted for Son of Numenor
Fordim voted for Son of Numenor
The Only Real Estel voted for Son of Numenor
Son of Numenor voted for the phantom

Totals:
Son of Numenor: 6
The phantom: 3
The Saucepan Man: 2
Holbytlass: 1


The Six who voted a known innocent:
The Saucepan Man
Firefoot
The phantom
Holbytlass
Fordim
The Only Real Estel

Reasons for voting for an innocent.

SpM:

post 147

And SoN's behaviour does seem the least explicable to me out of everyone. But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN

So essentially his behavior was odd and to make himself look innocent by killing somebody who was suggested was in league with him. Although I don’t find that suggestion being strong or rather well accepted. However to your credit SpM you at least stuck you your beliefs and didn’t lynch somebody because it was to save you, as other did.

Firefoot:


post 152

I don't agree with the basis for the accusations of SpM, and I'm not enough convinced of the guilt of phantom to be ready to vote for him. At this point I am not thinking either are werewolves. The other vote has been for SoN, and he is and has been at the top of my suspicion list for a while. So: ++SON OF NUMENOR. He has been acting far more wolfish than either phantom or Saucepan.

Weak evidence at best and truly echoes SpM even though she defends herself from this in the next paragraph. Yet she doesn’t vote for two people with suspicion cast on them and voted for an innocent because he hasn’t spoken much. It seems that there is a subtle defense of both SpM and the phantom here, yet enough distance to not look overly suspicious.

The Phantom:

post 153

Honestly, I'd normally vote to lynch Saucy first, but I'd feel rather bad doing that since he didn't vote for me when he had the chance. I'll give him a pass this time.

++SoN

WHAT!!! Did I read that correctly? Well I should vote for SpM but since he accuses me then doesn’t vote for me I’ll do the same for him. This coming from the man who repeatedly threatens that anyone who accuses him he will take down. The first 3 votes for Son of Numenor came from 3 people that are “suspicious” of each other and yet won’t vote for each other while naming them in their explanation. This is very, very suspicious to me and we may have a wolfish trio here. But the phantom reasoning is pathetic and laughable.

It just seems that they are teaming up yet trying to give a defense to themselves so when it was found out that SoN was innocent they could claim that they aren’t working together.

Moving on

Holbytlass

post 158

I was going to vote when there was a 3 way tie. Then Oddwen voted for me. Therefore I held off my vote in case I had to save myself.
I will vote for ++Son of Numenor for two reseans(sp?). Obviously now, even if Fordim and Estel vote for me I'm saved from the tied- double lynching. The other (and this is for when I originally was going to vote) I do think that Phantom and Saucepan Man are highly suspicios. Although at this point there smarts are needed. I am scared they are wolves using their wit against the rest of innocents.

So self-preservation was a factor. And thinking that we are keeping smart people because she's afraid that the werewolves are able to use their wit against us. It seems that if they are suspicious, which you admit, then maybe you ought to have looked a bit closer at them. My opinion of Holbytlass is that she is somewhat suspicious and could be the quiet wolf that attempts to fly under that radar while she supports the others who are more vocal. That support could be either voting with or not voting for her comrades. That said I feel she is the least suspicious on the list of six.

Fordim

Sorry but I feel I must quote almost his entire post—please read.
post 160

As to my vote, I am stuck. I would love to vote for Kuru on the thinking that he is either, a) a wolf or b) a villager who is helping the wolves inadvertently with his rather confusing and confounding posts. Unfortunately, a single for him at this point is unlikely to get him lynched – the only way that would happen would be if virtually every who is still to vote followed my lead. If he turned out to be an innocent, then this would make me look very very bad. As much as I would like to play this game selflessly, it is clear that I need to take more care for my own skin than that. So for the time, I think, Kuru is safe.

My next choice after Kuru is The Phantom for precisely the same reasons: he is either a wolf, or a villager who is helping the wolves hide with his own flurry of distracting speculations and self-congratulatory “conclusions” about people. The other thing that speaks greatly in favour of voting for TP is that it will break the current three-way tie between himself, Sauce and SoN – the last thing I want is a wholesale slaughter!

Hmmmmm…things are happening fast. Since I typed that last paragraph, The Phantom has gone on to vote for SoN, apparently to save his own neck. Seems fair to me…

The votes at this moment so far as I can tell are:

Phantom 2
Holbytlass 1
Sauce 2
SoN 3

So what do I do? I’m tempted to vote for the Phantom anyway and tie it up again, putting pressure on the remaining voters…

Boy, but the squeeze is being put on me!! If I vote for someone now and they end up getting lynched and they’re innocent, I’ll definitely be considered a wolf. If I tie it up, and there are wolves yet to vote, then they will be able to decide whom to lynch…the safest course for me, personally, is to cast a “meaningless” vote for Kuru who, like I said at the beginning of this bizarrely stream-of-consciousness post, is my first choice…

Just read Holbytlass’s latest post (158) and note that it is down to herself, me and Estel to decide this thing…and Saucy in 159 reminding me of SoN.

All right! That tears it…I need to vote for somebody and I don’t want the weight of being the last to vote. As it would appear as though SoN is the “leader” and as it would appear as though he is trying the rather wolfish strategy of waiting to the last minute to cast his vote (as I would appear to be doing as well, I realize) I am going to vote for

++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

That having been said, if SoN is innocent, I am going to go after SaucepanMan and The Phantom with everything I’ve got in the next day, since they have lead the charge against SoN today…

So let’s get this straight. You want to vote for Kuru but don’t because he probably won’t get lynched. So are you that bloodthirsty that you only vote those you think will be lynched? By your own admission you don’t vote for Kuru because it’s what is safest for you to do.

If I may rant for a moment. We need to stop that attitude and be a bit more selfless. If one is truly innocent than the goal should be to eliminate the wolves not save yourself.

So you suggest the phantom but end up not voting for him from what I inferred being a fear to cause a tie and letting other voters decide who to kill. Apparently you wanted your vote to really count.

Immediately after you vote for SoN you say

Quote ++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

However the one that could possibly be tied up at the end is the phantom who you yourself suspected and said that you didn’t suspect SoN. If it were me on the chopping block I would choose to have a tie and let the wolf come with me than me die alone. It seems like an exchange that I would be willing to take part in an innocent for a wolf.

If Firefoot’s not a wolf I’m suspecting that Fordim may be the third in the trio.


TORE:

post 163

Well, since SoN is clearly the one to be hung at this point & he is near the top of my suspect list I see no need to hold my vote longer.

I vote for ++ Son of Numenor

TORE seems to take sadistic pleasure out of being the last vote. Like Fordim he wants to make his vote count. As I don’t’ understand this philosophy of only voting those who are likely to die, there is great suspicion on you but not as much as the other four.

Now it’s entirely possible that not all three wolves voted for SoN but the only one I truly suspect out of the remaining would be Shelob who voted for SpM. Shelob could be guilty and SpM innocent or both could be guilty. Least likely both are innocent. The only other one with a possibility is Oddwen who voted for Holbytlass a seemingly random vote but unlike some of our others she wasn’t afraid to vote for somebody that may not be lynched.

Sorry this is so long and if I come across as expressing myself with vehemence it is only because I feel strongly that those who vote for an innocent who have less guilty evidence than others need to answer why. If this has earned me the odium of all, that is lamentable but I will not go lightly on those who act irresponsibly against somebody because they simply didn’t have a lot of time.

[Shelob]

"my attempts to summarise what you have said"
"If that's "muddying the waters", then I am sorry"
~Saucepan Man

Given you're explanation I accept your appologies, I just wish you were more exact in your summarization...We can't afford to assume anything and poor summarization can only assist the werewolves...from poor summarization we'll draw inaccurate conclusions and end up lynching more of our own...

As to this mystery with which we've been presented...My bet is that the guardian pulled through to save a villager. My reasoning behind this being that the guardian would be able to look at everyone's reactions and judge who would be the best person for the werewolves to kill, just from what would be most strategic ...the Werewolves however would have no clues as to whom the cursed villager is...This isn't guaranteed, it just seems to me that it's more likely for the Guardian to have guessed the werewolves kill than for the werewolves to have guessed the cursed...

I would prefer to hear from others before giving much more thought to this, so I shall leave it now and return once more have spoken.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

There are only three people who voted for both Sono and Evisse:

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom
The Saucepan Man

Evisse and Sono (two of three proven innocents) voted for:

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom

The third proven innocent, The Guy Who Be Short voted, I acknowledge, for me. And, yes, I voted for Sono but as I explained at the time I was afraid that if I did not put the nail in Sono's coffin, a wolf could come along and force a tie and we'd end up lynching more than one innocent. And I would point out that TP and SpM had both voted for Sono before I, which is what caused the potential two or even three-way tie crisis, and that TORE waited until the last 15 minutes to vote after me.

If my obvious suspicions are correct, then I may have prevented TORE from tying things yesterday. And yes, I concede that this might all be part of some grand, Byzantine and hopelessly convoluted plot by the werewolves, with me one of them, to keep me in the clear. And my conceding that might be a double bluff, and my conceding of the double bluff is a tactic to throw everyone off. What can I say? I will let the votes and people's actions speak for themselves.

I would point out, though, that the wolves' first victim was clearly selected to make me look guilty. So either I'm an incredibly stupid wolf who just loves dancing on the edge of destruction by calling attention to myself, or I'm an outspoken -- maybe even pugilistic -- innocent.


I suggest we pick one of either,

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom
The Saucepan Man

for hanging.

Oh, and I agree with Saucy, who is probably in a much better position to know than I, that we now have four Wolves to worry about...

[mormegil]

Fordim I need you to explain why you voted for somebody that you believed to be innocent. I know and understand what you have said but I just can't understand why yet. I actually want to believe that you are innocent but I need some validation for believing that.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Fordim I need you to explain why you voted for somebody that you believed to be innocent. I know and understand what you have said but I just can't understand why yet. I actually want to believe that you are innocent but I need some validation for believing that.

Fair enough.

I suppose the final reason is that given the nature of the game, I never feel like I can know or believe anything for certain. When I voted for Sono I did believe that he was probably innocent and that Kuru was probably guilty -- but in either case I could be wrong.

I believe in risk management: when I assess a choice like this I try to make it in terms that take into account the best possible scenario (catching a wolf) and the worst possible scenario (creating a tie and letting a wolf kill two or even three innocents).

When I cast my vote there were, to my mind, three possible wolves available: Kuru, TP and SPM. My vote had no way of catching Kuru as no-one had voted for him. (And this has been noted by me so that I am becoming less suspicious -- if I'm the only one who has my eye on him, I should perhaps look elsewhere). TP and SpM each had votes for them, but I doubt that both are werewolves given that they have been going at each other: too risky with such a close vote. So I could only choose one and hope I was right, but that would have set up a tie for a future wolf to make -- so sure, I might have picked a wolf and another wolf (or even a misguided innocent) could have come along and made a tie and a wolf might have died taking one or even two innocents with him. So the best possible scenario, in that case, was that I had a slim chance of catching a wolf, with a better than slim chance of killing more than one innocent.

The worst possible scenario was just more attractive. By casting my vote the way I did, I knew that I would probably not be getting a wolf (but then, I could have been wrong, and Sono could have been guilty), but the pay off was that I could guarantee, right then and there, that there would be no tie and no further loss of innocents.

So it was brutal, cold and perhaps unattractive logic that drove me -- it may even have been faulty -- but to answer your question: I made the choice I did as a result not just of assessing the possible benefits of a correct vote, but taking into account the dangers of an incorrect vote.

[Holbytlass]

Um, Mormegil, you forgot me in your tally vote list. I voted for SoN also.
Not that I particularly want to draw any sort of suspicions my way, but I honestly don't want any who are suspicious of you to think we are in league together and that you are protecting me.
So, what happened?

[mormegil]

Wow! Thank for pointing that out. I guess I just missed your vote. I thought I captured them all but I will go back and do my analysis of it a bit later. Thanks again.

Edit I think I missed you on my initial list and that's the one I worked on. I will post it in my initial list with an edit.

It's revised.

[Kuruharan]

I made the choice I did as a result not just of assessing the possible benefits of a correct vote, but taking into account the dangers of an incorrect vote.

Yeah, but you also chose to make a vote that was bound to provide the least amount of information unless by dumb luck SoN happened to be a werewolf...

It is not just a matter of killing the right people. It is also a matter of killing the people that will give the most information.

[Holbytlass]

Why do I feel like I've just been summoned to a tax audit?

[Firefoot]

Yet she doesn’t vote for two people with suspicion cast on them and voted for an innocent because he hasn’t spoken much.

Not just that he didn't post much, but how he posted, which I have stated elsewhere.

Oh, and I agree with Saucy, who is probably in a much better position to know than I, that we now have four Wolves to worry about...

Or the guardian got lucky and the guarded person was also the werewolves' chosen victim. There's not way for us to know (unless, of course, you're a wolf...)

Now that I've had more time to analyze some things, I would like to point out phantom's post here. While he does not specifically pin down anyone as suspicious, he states that he sees the reasoning for most people to be werewolves. He did not mention Azaelia, mormegil, or TORE (though we really don't know that much about Azaelia at all). This is especially odd due to mormegil's and phantom's contention. An alliance between the two seems extremely unlikely to me, but it struck me when phantom did not mention him at all. I'm not sure if this means something or not, but I thought I'd put it out there.

Right now my primary suspicion is on phantom. He is really confusing me; one minute I think he is completely innocent and the next I think he's a werewolf. This is what concerns me the most; it could be that he is a werewolf too good at writing convincing arguments. I don't know. My past two votes I have been reasonably sure (at the time), so phantom is really concerning me because he confuses me.

While I'm beginning to doubt SpM a little, maybe he just seems too honest to me. (So lynch me. I think he's telling the truth.) Same thing with Fordim (now. I won't deny that I did originally think he was guilty.) and (in a way) Kuru. It feels like he's a werewolf, but he sounds too honest. This could be my problem with phantom... he doesn't seem like a werewolf, but he doesn't seem honest enough. Or something.

So that's where I'm at.

[mormegil]

I'm sorry Firefoot but the thought that the phantom and I are in league is fairly laughable. I think he didn't mention me because he was quoting other people's ideas of suspicion and there aren't many people accusing me at this time. So there was no real quote.

[mormegil]

I have in the past few minutes developed a theory that would help explain some of the recent events. It's a bit hard to explain and I have a general inability to explain well what I think so please bear with me.

TGWBS was killed and he was most suspicious of Fordim. We debated much about the set up tactic and double cover up. I think this was an attempt for the wolves to "test the waters" to see that the double cover up defense wouldn't work i.e. Fordim killed TGWBS but we wouldn't suspect him because he wouldn't do that because it's too obvious.

I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious. Well we all think that would be stupid to kill mormegil if the phantom is a werewolf because we would all suspect him. But as I explained earlier they tested that idea with Fordim and TGWBS and it worked. Does that make any sense? They saw that they can kill those who are accusing them and not get lynched the next day. Am I accusing Fordim, no I think he was a pawn in their experiment and he played his part well, but played it unwittingly.

Why do I think that I was the prime killing suspect for the wolves? Well there are two reasons. First I have been most outspoken against them much to my own risk. Secondly, I'm not really on anybody's suspect list--at least high up. So they know there is little chance of getting me lynched so they want to eliminate the one that is pointing out their plans.

I hope that this makes some sense if it does it will validate my suspicions and I will be able to move forward with even more confidence.

[the phantom]

I hope Morm is right and that the Guardian saved someone last night.

Get ready everyone- I'm in the process of typing up a long post that points out two wolves (I hope).

(don't worry Morm, you're not one of them)

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

It is not just a matter of killing the right people. It is also a matter of killing the people that will give the most information.

Maybe Fordim's short list might come in handy....
The 2 main suspects are Phantom and Saucepan Man. Some are suspicous of one or the other and some are suspicious of both. Are there any who do not suspect either?
With Mormegil's analisys(sp?), many who claimed to be suspicious of one or both still did not vote for either for various reasons (myself included).
So this 'short-list' all can see a better view of where people stand and even with a tie, both sides maybe be appeased. I dare say, that these two might be relieved? They can answer themselves. I say this because they both seem very tired. Tired from late night killings or tired from constant suspicions when only their deaths would prove their innocents.
I am not trying to speak about their state of minds but what I perceive them to be. Also, in a way, help the village glean more info.

[the phantom]

It is time.

What time, you ask?

Time for a famous Phantom Theory.

The last one I had was a stretch (I readily admitted it), but this one may be more to the village's liking.

Estel and Saucy are working together! They are wolves!

Estel defended Saucy-

I think that this can surely be written off as jest-Kuru and Phantom have hardly been trustworthy figures in two past occasions (that I can’t name more fully because past villages aren’t supposed to be referenced ). A hard look at the beginning can really be no more than jest in my opinion.

Estel agreed with Saucy-

As far as votes go I will say that I am leaning toward's Saucepan's theory.

Saucy agreed with Estel-

Although I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this

Also, Saucy used this argument several times in order to make Estel look innocent-

The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour.

My response to that- why would a wolf favor a double lynching? If you recall, we wolves in the last town (Spawn, Nim, and I) had a double lynching handed to us but we refused to take it. Why? Because it is better to keep a likely-to-get-lynched person alive for one more day to lynch them then because it gives you an extra night to kill.

In other words, if there are three people that you think people would lynch, you would want to lynch them on three seperate days so you would get to make three kills at night following the lynchings. If you lynch two on one day it removes one of your free killing nights. If you lynch three then you only get one single night to kill.

It is wise for wolves to keep suspicious folk around as long as possible giving them as many nights as possible to kill the more innocent looking ones. Does everyone understand what I am saying? As a former wolf I know what I am talking about.

If you are understanding me, you will know that Saucy's defense of Estel based on the lack of a double lynching does not work.

Saucy said this-

But my feeling is that this is the behaviour of a someone who knows that he is a Werewolf target and doesn't want to appear too incisive at this stage so as to avoid being killed during the night. And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

Here, Saucy uses the argument again. He is basically saying "Phantom, I think you are innocent, and if you are then so is Estel."

It sounds to me like he's trying to get on my good side by pointing out my innocence (he knows I am since he's a wolf), and at the same time he's trying to move Estel firmly off my radar based on my own innocence. Very very clever. This is something that I would do if I was a wolf.

And what about Estel's Saucy-phantom-SoN theory? He included Saucy on there in case Saucy got lynched (it would make Estel look innocent). But he purposefully grouped Saucy with SoN and I since it was possible that either SoN or I would be lynched. You see, he tied two people who he knew to be innocent to Saucy so that when SoN or I got lynched and proven innocent it would make Saucy look innocent, too. Very clever. That is exactly what I would do if I was a wolf.

In addition, Estel continues to "suspect" Saucy all the way until the end of the day, but votes for SoN instead. Is this pattern going to continue- always suspecting Saucy but never actually voting for him?

Yes. He's just trying to seperate himself from Saucy.

Saucy took a little stab at Estel-

And, if I do, I shall be looking closely at you, Estel, given that you have turned up as one of the last to vote for two days running now.

This is just to seperate himself from Estel, just as Estel has tried to seperate himself from Saucy-

If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

Also, look at the opinions of those who have died.

SoN was suspicious of Estel-

I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right.

SoN was suspicious of Saucy too-

A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves

Not that SoN's suspicions were concrete- I'm just showing that there was another innocent who suspected them besides myself.

TGWBS pointed an early finger at Saucy, and he's dead now-

Another thing that concerns me is Saucy's jesting. Verily, I enjoy jokes as much as the next man, but this seems incredibly out of place when one fifteenth of the hamlet has just been viciously slaughtered. He also voiced suspicion, perhaps jestingly, of Phantom and Kuru without offering any sort of explanation.

There! I've made my case for Saucy and Estel!

Read my case over again if you have to. I truly believe that this is the most solid case out there right now.

I think I have a good chance of being right- but if I'm not, forgive me and pat me on the back for trying.

[the phantom]

Oh, and Morm- you were demanding explanations from people who voted for SoN?

Here's mine. It's quite simple.

I voted the last possible moment I possibly could before leaving the house. When I voted, the count was-

SPM- 2
SoN- 2
TP- 2

I was on the chopping block, so I felt the need to vote for one of the other vote leaders. SoN and SPM were my choices. I wanted to go with SPM, but after he suspected me but then went for SoN instead, I decided to do him the same favor. It wasn't as if I didn't suspect SoN, anyway. And also, I figured that if SPM was actually the wolf of the two, he might be reluctant to kill me after I had plainly expressed my suspicions of him. In addition, it appears that I am extremely suspicious to people (I've received three votes both days), so no way would the wolves kill me during the night.

You see, since I was fairly confident I'd be around the next day to make my case, I didn't see the harm in voting for one of my suspects over another.

You can call that logic "pathetic" or "laughable" if you wish, but it seems rather straight forward to me.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I think I have a good chance of being right- but if I'm not, forgive me and pat me on the back for trying.

*pat pat*

You do make a good argument there Phantom, I must admit. But it cuts both ways. You are pretty obviously responding to my short list and trying your darnedest not to acknowedge that you are doing this. All three of you are under suspicion for voting for innocents; all three of you are under suspicion for making confusing arguments, changing your tactics and being generally evasive. And there you are pointing the finger at the other two -- like the kid who's been caught in the Adult's Only section of the videohut who points at his two friends and cries out, "It was them!"

Your own brilliant theory implodes upon itself: the one thing you come back to again and again is that SpM and Estel accuse each other of being werewolves, but that they never vote for one another -- and yet here you are, accusing them without ever having voted for either of them.

Sauce for the goose, sauce for the gander...

As to your explanations for why you "had" to vote for Evisse and Sono: you voted for them in order to break a tie with yourself. Fair enough, but you are constantly calling attention to the one vote that you cast for someone else, perhaps hoping we will ignore:

a) that you had a significant number of votes against you in the first place, thus putting you into this "bind", and

b) that two of our only three proven innocents cast votes against you (Sono and Evisse).

As a matter of fact, of all the votes cast to this point, you have received (combined) more than anyone else: 6.

Sono and Evisse, both of whom you voted for, had only 5 each. The next most 'popular' vote getter is Saucy with 3. You are clearly garnering a lot of suspicion, and while I would not want to suggest that this is a popularity contest, you might want to work a bit more at looking and acting less suspicious yourself rather than trying to get us to lynch your "co-accused"...

Sadly, RL will keep me away from my computer until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest. I may be able to peek in and read from time to time but I will not have any chance to post at length. I was tempted to cast my vote now, but I shall hold off for the time being and try to keep up with the reading. At some point tonight, however, I shall probably have to post a very brief message, probably no more than a word...a word in boldface, preceded by a couple of plus signs.

[Firefoot]

My thoughts are along the same lines as Fordim's (though he stated it more eloquently than I could). As convincing as your argument is, phantom, it also has strong airs of a cornered animal. You have been under a great deal of suspicion, and it seems like you are pulling off a very convincing "Not me! Them!" I am more convinced of your guilt than SpM's or TORE's, and you just made it more so.

I don't really have a lot to add; basically "what Fordim said."

[the phantom]

You are pretty obviously responding to my short list and trying your darnedest not to acknowedge that you are doing this.

Though I don't blame you since you had no way of knowing, you are absolutely 100% wrong. I had most of my accusation post written before you even posted your list today.

I was working on my Saucy-Estel theory before the day was over yesterday. This morning all I had to do was tidy it up a bit.

and yet here you are, accusing them without ever having voted for either of them

The first day I didn't have any chance whatsoever to vote for them. Yesterday I had a chance to vote for Saucy, but I explained why I didn't in my last post.

Today, however, even if the votes are going against me I am going to vote for either Saucy or Estel. I'll give them both a chance to defend themselves and see if one of them turns on the other, but one of them is getting my vote no matter what.

that two of our only three proven innocents cast votes against you

So what? It means nothing. Their votes were no better informed than mine. Only one was a seer, and she hadn't had a single dream. They knew nothing, and you are smart enough to know that Fordim.

And the two that did vote for me were lynched by the village, not murdered in the night by wolves.

Plus, it's not as if I led the charge against them either. I simply went with the flow to save my skin. You can't deny that.

you had a significant number of votes against you in the first place

Yes, and votes can only come from two sources-
1) Villagers, who obviously have no concrete knowledge.
2) Werewolves, who obviously want villagers dead.

As you can see, the fact that people have been voting for me proves absolutely nothing, Fordim. And once again, you are smart enough to know that.

If you keep trying to paint me as a bad guy using completely useless information I will start to wonder if you are the third wolf.

Considering that I have accused two of the three people you claim to suspect, I'm surprised you are protesting. Perhaps the only person off your list you wanted to see lynched today was me, and then when the village found me to be innocent you were going to excuse Saucy and Estel, your werewolf brethren.

Also, maybe whoever noted the link between Firefoot and Saucy was correct, seeing as Firefoot just agreed with Fordim's completely weightless post. Perhaps Estel is in the clear, and Fordim, Saucy, and Firefoot are the wolves.

[the phantom]

It has been about two hours and no one has posted.

Could it be that my posts have struck home and the wolves are feeling pinned down and trying to decide how to turn the tide back without looking too obvious?

I hope that is the reason for the silence.

[Kuruharan]

Could it be that my posts have struck home and the wolves are feeling pinned down and trying to decide how to turn the tide back without looking too obvious?

Oh, I suspect that RL probably has something to do with it too. (Some of us actually have lives outside of cyberspace, can you believe it??!! )

However, there is a simple question I'd like to put before the village (such as it is). Is there anybody here who does not strongly suspect The Saucepan Man? If there isn't, why are we even bothering with this palaver? If there is some consensus on a suspect, shouldn't we act on it? I think that it would be, at the very least, informative.

I think one of the problems the village has been having is they are making this harder than it has to be. Look at the evidence and then make the choice the evidence points toward. And don't wimp out when the time comes and vote for somebody just because it is not a difficult choice or "might be wrong." (coughlikeyesterdaycough) Whatever we do might be wrong. There is no certainty until the end.

[the phantom]

However, there is a simple question I'd like to put before the village (such as it is). Is there anybody here who does not strongly suspect The Saucepan Man? If there isn't, why are we even bothering with this palaver? If there is some consensus on a suspect, shouldn't we act on it? I think that it would be, at the very least, informative.

I agree.

If you go by what people have said and who they have voted for and hold them to it then Kuru, Estel, Fordim, Holby, Shelob, and I should all be willing to cast a vote for SPM, and I may even be forgetting someone. Even if I'm not, that's still the necessary number of votes (six).

[Shelob]

I am willing Phantom...but as it stands now I fear leaving you untouched...

Your SPM/TORE theory still seems too much like an attempt to divert attention from yourself for me to feel comfortable...I understand your reasoning behind it, I even to an extent agree...but it's timing worries me... add to that the fact that you have so closely avoided a hanging not once but twice and it makes me suspect you may be getting desperate to be further from the noose this time round...

But then Saucepan Man has led the arguments against both now proven innocents (though my vote was, admittedly, the first against Evisse)...and he remains a suspicious character regardless of whatever leeways and concessions people make...

...But then it may be neither of you is a werewolf...Either of you, Both of you, Neither of you...It's enough to make one's head ache...

I would vote for Saucepan Man...but I would as willingly vote for you Phantom..

Hold on. Kuru, if you're so confident in your plan why didn't you just vote? (Perhaps I shouldn't read it that you're confident...but that's how it seems to me)...and why do you say "If there is some consensus on a suspect, shouldn't we act on it?" in relation to Saucepan Man?...the two are very close but it seems to me that Phantom is slightly higher today in the town's rough "consensus" than is Saucepan Man...perhaps I'm wrong here but since I've not the time to check I'll trust you all shall either check for me or grant me time to eat before expecting me to check myself...

[The Only Real Estel]

RL is an evil thing. It has kept me away from the thread since 7 am (when nothing had happened yet), & it will keep me from doing anything but catching up on what has been said until later. Later I will post my explanation for voting for Son, repost my explanation for voting for Evesse (given the SpM called them both into question recently), & reply to phantom's theory of SpM & I (it is refreshing to see someone come up with a well thought-out theory and actually trying to back it up with quotes, as phantom as done here - no matter how misguided it is it shows he is not just pulling things out of his...uh, brain ).

Until later,
Estel