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12-06-2010, 10:13 PM | #121 |
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I don't see anything too horribly suspicious about Nerwen, especially her later posts. There's a possibility of Nessa being a *teensy* bit off, but I do *not* want her lynched toDay. I'll probably be back to vote closer to DL.
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12-06-2010, 10:15 PM | #122 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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In slight explanation for my defensiveness earlier - I blame teh Real Lifes. It was early. My brain was fuzzy, having not gotten its coffee yet.
Also, RL is to blame for my absence from then 'til now. Terribly busy afternoon/evening. But now that I'm as caught up as I can be... ++ Nerwen She seems shady(est) to me at the moment. (Terribly sorry if I'm wrong.)
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12-06-2010, 10:38 PM | #123 | |
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++Nog because he looks worst to me.
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12-06-2010, 10:53 PM | #124 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
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Now that Elra's voted for me, it's not likely they're all three wolves– I mean, if she's a cub, her packmates would probably have told her, "hey, let's not all three vote for the same person". Her vote's bad though, even for a newbie– she votes me for what? Poking at her earlier? And yet in the same breath she admits she was defensive! Now, Nessa was of course in danger then– could Elra have been trying to save her? I realise I'm not sure whether my role will be revealed on death or not, but anyway all of you who play with me regularly should know you'd never have got me this easily were I a wolf, so I think you may as well regard me as a known innocent toMorrow anyway. That should help.
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12-06-2010, 11:31 PM | #125 |
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Deadline. Stop posting.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
12-07-2010, 12:25 AM | #126 |
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I lent my book out and it hasn't come back yet. I'll edit the scene in as soon as I get it back.
Nerwen was lynched. She was an ordo. And lynching Nerwen is not the way to get on Shasta's good side. Night 2 begins.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
12-07-2010, 11:37 PM | #127 |
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Wolf 1: Why are we chasing down this ring, again?
Wolf 2: ...Sauron told us to? Wolf 3: And we're getting paid? In hobbit meat? Wolf 1: Oh yeah. So who did we decide had it? Sally: [skipping by] Ring around the rosie, a pocket full of posies, insert joyous innocent laughter here etc... Wolf 2: [Shrugs] I guess she's as good a target as any. Wolf 3: So let's chomp her then? Wolf 1: Sounds good. Sally: And now for another rendition of - heeeeey, you guys aren't a captive audience at all! I CALL SHENANIGANS! Wolf 3: Could you call for a waiter while you're at it? We'd like our check. ------------------ Sally has been eaten. She was an ordo. Day 2 begins.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
12-08-2010, 03:52 AM | #129 |
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Ordo Sally, eh? That means the heir-related craziness of yesterday shall continue.
Now, the only person the wolves really don't want to kill is the guardian because then a replacement jumps straight into the same place. However, they definitely want to kill the Seer, even though another will appear, because otherwise - as has happened - our seer has info on (probably) two people. Just hope dreams weren't spent on Nerwen or Sally. Will check out Sally later, to see what the wolves spotted; participation will be a bit intermittent while I'm at work.
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12-08-2010, 03:54 AM | #130 | |
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Didn't really understand my video but I'm sure it was inappropriate.
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12-08-2010, 04:31 AM | #131 | ||||||||
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Well, here we go - we are not much further than yesterDay, basically the same question remains. I think it's a matter of time, but the Wolves have effectively won a day, because once again, if we lynch one of them now, he/she would be replaced...
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There is of course sally's vote for Lommy, but sally did not say anything outright Seerish to her vote: Quote:
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Summa summarum, if Ron Weasley Hubbard is a Wolf, or if Lommy is a Wolf, then it might be possible that the WWs would have thought "ha, Seer, and a dangerous one, let's get her!" But it is also possible that it was simply meant as a non-trace kill, as sally really hasn't been around much, which I find even somewhat more plausible (the question then rises, however, what would they get by a non-trace kill in a situation where nobody has any trace anyway). Or they are simply "sportish" and killed the one who asked for being lynched... Quote:
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12-08-2010, 05:58 AM | #132 | ||
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Which makes us have the ball. (Wow what a wonderful speech this is shaping to be! ) I'm inclined to follow Nerwen's lead in what she said before she died: we're facing the same dilemma toDay as we faced yesterDay, so we had better accept the grim situation and start hunting wolves. Otherwise the wolves devour us while we wait them to hit the heir first. On the positive side, I think they can't try to avoid gifteds much longer either because basically all the gifteds become more dangerous for the evil side as the game proceeds. Now I'm off to play Age of Empires II because I just feel like that. I'll be back in an hour or two anyway and then I'll have a proper look at yesterDay.
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12-08-2010, 06:38 AM | #133 |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Ouch. Two ordos
Perhaps the wolves went for sally because of her Vote yesterDay?
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12-08-2010, 07:48 AM | #134 | |
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To be honest I don't know what sense voting Nerwen made - aren't weirdness and "unproductiveness" much more usual signs of ordoishness than of wolvishness? I think the voting reasons of everybody in the nerwagon (including myself) are silly, but so were mostly the reasons of other votes. I think the biggest dilemma regarding analysing yesterDay is whether we can use the votes as valid anything or not, because a big part of the village was thinking they might as well vote random... Ps. Currently suspecting Zil (too happy, for example: "I wonder if an 13-way tie has ever happened before?") and Nog (somehow artificial, can't pharse it better).
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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12-08-2010, 08:19 AM | #135 | ||||
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Sorry about that, Nerwen.
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I wasn't particularly happy, more bemused at the fact that the votes were so spread out.
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12-08-2010, 10:24 AM | #136 | |
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Why are you saying everything I am thinking?
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12-08-2010, 10:59 AM | #137 | |
Laconic Loreman
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I will more or less have to vote randomly again today as I'm going to be swamped with busyness for the remainder of the week, as I'm needed to moderate for this academic/jeopardy-like tournament area schools are competing in.
So, with my apologies of apalling inactivity and to to the Master Mod. I may be on late may not... ++Lommy Quote:
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12-08-2010, 12:05 PM | #138 |
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I concur, Boro. Lommy and Legate are both looking a bit unfriendly to me at the moment... Legate mostly because of the completely fallible logic in trying to reason out why Sally got dead. Those kinds of reverse-psychology leaps are just plain weird. But, I may be reading too much into it. (Especially since Lommy herself pointed out how little sense Legate was making.)
But it's still entirely possible that I'm wrong on both accounts.
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12-08-2010, 12:17 PM | #139 | ||
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Examining possible Gifted hints has become almost a habit - and often a helpful one - and someone would probably have done it eventually.
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12-08-2010, 12:20 PM | #140 | |
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12-08-2010, 12:47 PM | #141 | |
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Should we just accept that we have to hunt wolves or should we perhaps think about lynching our Hunter today? It guarantees that the Heir becomes another Hunter, and it takes a shot at killing someone else at the same time. Could be a wolf, could not; but it's the same chance as getting a wolf as our lynching would be, and it gets us the Heir as guaranteed. Just thinking out loud here; please judge the idea critically.
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12-08-2010, 12:49 PM | #142 |
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Five ordos left, one of whom is the heir. Surely it won't go back and forth too long.
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12-08-2010, 01:29 PM | #143 | |
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Technically, the Heir doesn't actually need to ever come in play - in the wolves' minds. With three (three? I think three) Gifteds, if the wolves kill off all the ordos, that's it. We either need to hope the wolves accidentally hit a Gifted overNight, or we lynch a Gifted ourselves. The wolves won't take care of the problem for us, at least not if they can help it.
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12-08-2010, 01:40 PM | #144 | ||
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12-08-2010, 01:49 PM | #145 | |
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12-08-2010, 01:58 PM | #146 | |
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I am going to look at Sally's posts as I didn't have the chance to do it earlier. Not that I doubt the analysis of my fellow villagers but it's always good to check the evidence for yourself. A seer hint is still possible.
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12-08-2010, 02:02 PM | #147 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I have only managed to read the rest of yesterDay thus far but I'm going to go back into the thread in a moment. But before that I think I wish to raise a general point about our best interests and some quite suspicious behaviour related to it.
I don't understand why some of you wish to lynch the hunter. If the hunter is lynched s/he will take anyone with her/him. So early on there is a very imminent possibility lynching the hunter will mean losing two goodies with one lynch. If the wolves kill the hunter during the night s/he will not kill an innocent in retaliation but can take a wolf (and we'd gain a new hunter). So let's hope the wolves get the hunter and not us. If we need to consider lynching a gifted - which is an option we might face soon enough - I do suggest we go for the ranger (if the ranger is willing to sacrifice her/himself) because s/he is immediately re-installed and the new one can continue in the role. Obviously the importance of the heir grows every lynching/killing-chance going by. Basically, the later it gets for the heir to jump in, the more decisive that event is. I'm not sure if we'd need to try that already toDay (needs to do some counting and thinking), but if no wolf or gifted is dead by toMorrow I think we have no choice. Okay, back to read.
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12-08-2010, 02:06 PM | #148 |
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Nah, I reckon Lommy called it. Good kill from the wolves. Nothing progresses.
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12-08-2010, 02:16 PM | #149 | |
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12-08-2010, 02:25 PM | #150 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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This is plain crazy.
The wolves don't wish to kill the gifteds and we probably should hesitate lynching the wolves... especially if the game goes on for a Day or two. On the contrary, we need to consider lynching a gifted and the wolves probably hope at least in a half-hearted way that we'd get one of them before any gifted is dead... This makes no sense. In a way getting over and done with the heir would be most happy thing and we could start a real game. This just frustrates me. I mean really: I don't know whether lynching a wolf toDay is a good thing, I don't know if sacrifying a gifted is a good idea, I don't know how many ordinaries we can afford losing before the game turns into one where the balance of the whole game hangs on a thread of just good/bad luck with one decision either side makes...
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12-08-2010, 02:28 PM | #151 | |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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12-08-2010, 02:34 PM | #152 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Don't get me wrong though. Unless we have better ideas, let's go for the wolves with all we have. If not for anything else, it's according to the spirit of the game.
The problem - if you haven't thoiught about it - is that if we lynch a wolf we don't know we have done that, and thus we can't make any deductions on the basis of the relations that the lynched "role-haver" had with others + we'll have a "newborn" wolf which are always the hardest to hunt down as you can't use the first Days as basis of trying to figure them out.
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12-08-2010, 02:39 PM | #153 | |
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We don't have that with the guardian, though I accept it would be preferable.
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12-08-2010, 02:40 PM | #154 | |
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12-08-2010, 02:50 PM | #155 | |||
Leaf-clad Lady
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Phew, what a day, only got here now, will try my best. So.
First off, I agree with Lommy on why Sally was killed - to find her seerish would have required the wolves assuming a double-bluffing Sally-seer. Quote:
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Nog is bothering me a little. Maybe it's just because I don't see his point, but my initial reaction was as follows. A wolf would really object to lynching the Hunter, if only deep inside his furry self. A bold wolf would say it aloud and hope to turn the village around. EDIT: x-ed with Egg-nog and 2x Eomer
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12-08-2010, 03:06 PM | #156 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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Ok. I'm sorta here now. This is really the worst time for me to be playing a game (got 3 exams in the next 4 days, and I work for a greeting card company so Christmas season + Greeting cards = a busy busy me). I'm really sorry!
So I think the Hunter plan is still our best bet. Like Eomer said it still gives us the option of getting a wolf today and we guarantee that the Heir is on our side, and like Inzil said it's the only Gifted where we know for sure who it is, with the other's there's no way of knowing whether they were good or bad. If we don't get this Heir business out of the way soon we're all going to go mad. Right now we're all trying not to kill a Wolf, and the Wolves are trying not to kill Gifteds, it's all screwy and so none of us know what to do. I think it's worth taking the chance. I'll try to come back soon!
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12-08-2010, 03:09 PM | #157 | |||
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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But actually, you bring out a hair-rising prospect: if I was a wolf I'd be more than happy to sacrifice myself. That would guarantee the heir takes the wolves' side and the murky new wolf would be just an ace to their game - not forgetting that we'd be still in darkness about whether I was a gifted or a wolf so nothing conclusive could be said about my interactions with others... So I mean, if they want to do that, they can do it. Quote:
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EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa
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12-08-2010, 03:18 PM | #158 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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12-08-2010, 03:19 PM | #159 |
Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Okay. I'm getting even more confused...
I do not think that lynching the hunter is a good idea just because it let's us know who was lynched (or that it gives us a possibility of getting a wolf as well - as the chances are quite thin indeed and the risks are great), but reading Wilwa's post there has a good point: lynching the hunter would get us rid from this nausea and we could start playing. If we think a 2/3 chance of an additional death of an innocent (including a 20% chance of killing either the ranger or the seer) is price worth paying to get rid of this stalemate, then it might be considered. I'm not sure I'm happy with that, but I'm also willing to get this heir-bussiness out of the way asap. EDIT: X'd with Greenie
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12-08-2010, 03:21 PM | #160 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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On another note - I want to go to sleep like about now. If the Hunter is around and wants to come out, I'd prefer it if s/he did it really really soon. Otherwise I'll just vote somebody I either find suspicious - at this point the ones I have something on are Lommy and Nog (yay for a happy family! ) though they both are productive and I'd feel more like going after a submarine - or a possible Hunter (which would be weird).
EDIT: x-ed with Nog
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