Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So wilwa and Pitchie are wolves together?

I don't think Vanilwuffin is a wolf at all, but I wouldn't put it past Pitchie to be one.

EDIT: xed since Nog

[The Elf-warrior]

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

[Loslote]

++Agan

As I said, more to try and keep a Glirdy-lynch from happening than trying to lynch Agan herself. Sorry, Agan.

[Nogrod]

++ Aganzir

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shasta

But then again

*ahem!*

Kath - what??? Seriously? (And yes, it was a reading, but never mind.)

EDIT: x-ed with #115 ff.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Glirdan

More evidence, as opposed to a 'feeling' with Agan.

[Nogrod]

I actually write this like ten minutes before the DL just to able to send it in time. Some of it has been said already and some might be redundant by now. But whatever.

Greenie is over-rationalising her vote. She looks suspicious.

I'm also worried about wilwa. She voted for Glirdy too easily.

Pitch is nicely saving wilwa (I've had a bad feeling about him all the Day - he's reasonable, but then again like a cheetah looking for a victim to jump upon).

Those two being wolves and not knowing of the cobbler would just make sense.

Aganzir is a baddie. Which type? A cobbler, of course.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Click me.

[Boromir88]

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Volo
Wilwa

DEAD
Night 1: Boro (Mod)- knocked out stone-cold
.............Fea (honorary co-mod)- nommed by wolfies
Day 1: Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf

'Tis now Night 2. Everyone who has things to do...go.

[Boromir88]

The wolves ferociously debated through the night, throwing around several names of folk they would love to take a bite out of tonight. "Are we agreed then on this one?" asked the Alpha.

"Agreed" chimed the other two.

The three wolves snuck into the room of their intended victim. At first, they looked apprehensive, hoping there would be no one else in the room to stop their feast. The Ranger was not to be found and the wolves smirked as they closed in for the easy kill.

The Alpha approached the lump of a form underneath the covers and said "Be ready to dine on the finest meat tonight fellas." The other two waited in eager anticipation. The wolf removed the covers. But Lo! Behold! No fresh flesh was there, it was just a pile o' bones.

The wolves stood around confused and angered as their appetites were still unsatisfied. "We could just gnaw on them?" One wolf suggested "There still might be some flavor on them."

"Gnaw! Are you serious? No. We have no idea where those bones have been."

"But I'm hunnnngrryyy" whined the third.

"I'll eat you, then neither of us will be hungry if you don't quit that whining." snarled the Alpha.

Then as the wolves looked like they were about to tear into eachother, it got even darker and a bone chilling cold swept over the entire room. They turned and the door, which was previously closed, creaked open. But there was no one standing at the entrance. "There!" shouted one of the wolves pointing at the floor. It was a ghoulish, dim green hand crawling! Just a hand, crawling across the floor.

The Alpha tried to smack the ghastly hand with its paw, but the hand jumped out of the way. Then a chilled wind rushed passed the wolves. "Muahahaha" laughed a villanous voice from behind. The wolves turned back to the bed, to see what was at first just a pile of bones, now into an animated form. They first slowly began backing away, but when the dark figure moved towards the pack, they bolted out the door and slammed it shut behind them.

"What was that!?" cried one of the wolves.

"Don't worry mates." sneered the Alpha. "Whatever it is, we'll get it eventually. We'll show that creature who these common folk of this town should fear the most. Come! We have work to do. Everyone should be waking soon."

But as the Alpha said that, none of the three looked too convinced. Since the dark figure within the room let out another terrible laugh that turned their blood cold. There may just be another dark power in Bree, more horrible than the wolves.

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Volo
Wilwa

DEAD
Night 1: Boro (Mod)- knocked out stone-cold
.............Fea (honorary co-mod)- nommed by wolfies
Day 1: Glirdan (cobbler) - Harry Goatleaf
Night 2: No death!

'Tis now Day 2. Talking commence.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Obviously, the best course of action would be for the wolves to come forward with who they attacked last night.

[wilwarin538]

So the wolvies went for the Barrow Wight. That's extremely lucky for us.

Now we just need to try and figure out who would have been a likely target last Night and we'll be able to narrow down our BW suspects.

I would guess it was maybe someone more quiet, a trailess kill, the first Night is really the only time to be able to do that since many people haven't posted much. But they may have spotted what they thought was a Seer hint, but that is way harder for us to figure out.

But first I need to catch up on what happened after I left yesterDay, and get some food and I should be on in the next couple of hours.

edit: x'ed with Shasta, haha, actually that's not a completely awful idea. If one of the wolves is in great danger of being lynched, like where it's obvious they will definitely be the one to go, they may as well say who the BW is, that way they can help us kill him (which would also help their surviving mates since the BW is a threat to them too). They will have nothing to lose at that point, and they'll be able to still help their team even though they're dead (since the wolves can't kill the BW on their own, they need our help to do that).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

actually that's not a completely awful idea.

I am shocked, appalled, and hurt at the attitude towards my ideas that this comment implies. But in any case, moving on, starting with Assumption #1 - the wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. Honestly, the first person to jump out at me in this manner is Nog, who was quite explicit in this post right at DL -

Originally Posted by Nog

Greenie is over-rationalising her vote. She looks suspicious.

I'm also worried about wilwa. She voted for Glirdy too easily.

Pitch is nicely saving wilwa (I've had a bad feeling about him all the Day - he's reasonable, but then again like a cheetah looking for a victim to jump upon).

Those two being wolves and not knowing of the cobbler would just make sense.

Aganzir is a baddie. Which type? A cobbler, of course.

As an interesting aside, this would also point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves. Agan is probably the most likely of this bunch, considering that Nog was most specific about her. How likely it is that an Aganwolf would have gone after Nog (expecting that Nog-Seer would die, of course) knowing that his death would point to her is debatable, however.

More thoughts on Assumption 1 as I think of them. I should be back in a few hours.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Obviously, the best course of action would be for the wolves to come forward with who they attacked last night.

I'm afraid that depends on how valuable they think the BW's "help" to them is - and if TBW wishes to eliminate the ranger in the first place (how'd you do that even if you wished for it is another question) - and that in turn depends on how well they will succeed themselves. If we get one wolf like toDay and another one is getting lots of suspicion as well they might try to turn our eyes towards the BW...

Originally Posted by Shasta

But in any case, moving on, starting with Assumption #1 - the wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. Honestly, the first person to jump out at me in this manner is Nog, who was quite explicit

Now please, what kind of a "seer" would that make me? If there is even one reasonable wolf in the pack, they'd know better than to think me the seer. What comes to the assumption you're making through implication - that I'm the BW who tried to pose as the seer, just think of this: what would the real seer do if she noticed someone posing as the seer? What do you think? "Why bother checking that guy out who impersonates me..." Really? So whoever the BW is s/he would do really bad trying to look like a seer as there is a real one to check that out - and to feel very uncomfortable with it. Especially when it's only the village who can get rid of her/him...

So hurray for the Night with no kill but dratted it was not a ranger-save, when we'd (well the ranger would) know something. I'm not too optimistic about the wolves' willingness to throw the BW under the bus in any near future unless we can really pressure them.

On another news... well it's too late and I'm off to bed. See you later. We have a host of things to discuss toDay.

[Inziladun]

Well, not a bad start at all. No wolf or Wight with YesterDay's lynch, but a Cobbler is the next best thing. And no kill last Night, marking two setbacks for the pack right out of the gate.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But in any case, moving on, starting with Assumption #1 - the wolves went after someone they thought was the Seer. Honestly, the first person to jump out at me in this manner is Nog, who was quite explicit in this post right at DL-

As an interesting aside, this would also point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves. Agan is probably the most likely of this bunch, considering that Nog was most specific about her. How likely it is that an Aganwolf would have gone after Nog (expecting that Nog-Seer would die, of course) knowing that his death would point to her is debatable, however.

Trying to backtrack wolf-targets on Day 1 is tricky, but I guess Nog is a possibility. There was also this from him:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What I think of Volo? Well, he might be a total nut-head baddie trying to go with the "then going flow" - or then he is an ordo who thought I was the seer.

Hard to say, which one.

Then again, Nog voted for Agan, and it wasn't a situation where Agan was given a pass by everyone except Nog. So I'm not sure why his suspicion and vote for her would necessarily stand out from others.

x/d with Nog

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inzil

So I'm not sure why his suspicion and vote for her would necessarily stand out from others.

Simple. Because of how explicit it was, Inzil. I believe I just said that.

And Nog, haven't there been plenty of games where ordos have posed as the Seer in order to take a hit for said Seer? I know I myself have done it at least once (and it worked ), so surely you aren't saying that the only person that would pose as the Seer besides the Seer themselves is the BW, are you?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Simple. Because of how explicit it was, Inzil. I believe I just said that.

Well, I'd say this:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

++ AGANZIR

is pretty explicit as well. Why would they believe Nog over that if Agan was a wolf, especially when Nog also said:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Agan is the cobbler - as I think she is - then this will tell us a lot toMorrow.

So wilwa and Pitchie are wolves together?

If Aganwolf sees that, why should she worry about Nog being the Seer?

[Loslote]

I wouldn't think Nog would be the Night-kill (and TBW). My guess would be someone quieter, like Form, Elfie, or Kath, or who voted earlier, like Eomer or Volo. Of those, Eomer makes the most sense to me, with Form and Elfie right behind him.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, I'd say this:



is pretty explicit as well. Why would they believe Nog over that if Agan was a wolf, especially when Nog also said:



If Aganwolf sees that, why should she worry about Nog being the Seer?

Eomer said nothing of worth all yesterDay and gave no real reasons for his vote - look at the post you quoted yourself. Eomer voted Agan for talking a lot. Nogrod, on the other hand, had reasons that he talked about at length. My question to you, Inzil, is why you seem so intent on defending Nogrod? I was only following an assumption, yet you seem to be donning your armor for battle.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

++ AGANZIR

(1)

Shoddy reasoning. An easy vote for a wolf to have made, but at the same time I'd at least expect a wolf to qualify it with a "gut feeling", or something like it.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I'm sorry guys, I can't stay up any longer. I'm exhausted and need sleep as I have to work again later tonight. I shouldn't be this bad for Day 2.

As for my vote...

++Wilwa

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.

(1)

Cobbler Harry Glirdyleaf votes Wilwa. All that tells us is that he didn't consider her a wolf.

Originally Posted by Volo

I got a nastyish vibe from Pitchwife's first post's beginning, but later he felt Ok, Ok, Ok.



Sorry, darling, I would have liked to hear more of your voice before
++Aganzir

Correction: I did hear your voice, and would have liked to think this over, but can't. Won't. vote. randomly. So. die. please.

I pointed out yesterDay why I didn't like the way Volo latched onto going after Agan. (2)

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

++Agan

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo, and as a gifted (the seer at least) she would likely rather keep her head down and worry about finding the BW and exposing them herself. Thus, I don't think it's necessarily a completely evil scheme, but I think she wants to get rid of another opponent right off the bat, and since the BW doesn't pose much of a threat to the village right now, that leaves her as evil.

(3)

Hm. Sally was very scarce Day 1, so it's hard to say if her intentions there were opportunistic or not.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Okay, looks like it's my bed-time. I was debating between Pitch (for a vague feeling from one post) and Glirdan (looking the worse out of the (semi-)random voters). Will vote for

++ Glirdan

Because I feel better voting with a reason than voting with a vague gut-feeling. So just to repeat what I said before: a random vote on Day 1 is not evil-looking because it's annoying (I don't vote for lynch because something is annoying, because annoying doesn't equal evil), but because it is an excellent cover for a wolf. It's an easy way to cover one Day's lynch, and no one can point out any flaws in the logic because there is no logic - and any criticisms can be answered with "It was Day 1, I had nothing better!" But the thing is, anyone has something better than totally random - except for those who know almost everyone's alignment already and don't actually have suspects at all, and have to make everything up (ergo the wolves). So, shortly, Glirdan's vote gave me the impression of a wolf looking for an easy pass through the first Day without getting his hands dirty.

(1)

I voted for Glirdan myself for much the same reason, so this doesn't strike me as evil.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

It just hit me that there's only an hour left to the Day, how did that happen? It seems to be coming at us way too fast.

So I need to vote, cause my family is about to sit down for a nice supper and then I have to go out. So I'm going to go for:

++ Glirdan

99% of the reason I'm voting him is because he makes no sense to me, he seems more jumpy and nervous than usual, the way he was trying to take Agan's idea and make it into something regarding Cobblers, but never really explaining how the heck that would work, and I just am not getting good vibes from him at all. The other 1% is out of spite for him voting me.

(2)

Again, I pretty much agreed about Glirdan, so I can't find fault here.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

As said before, I don't think Agan should die toDay, so if I'm to cast a useful vote, it needs to be either Glirdan-ward or Wilwa-ward. Of the two, I've found Glirdan more entertaining toDay, and Wilwa slightly more useful...

But it's Day 1, and slightness is slight... so...

++ Wilwarin

(2)

My sole observation is that I'd wonder why "entertaining" trumps "useful" when considering a lynch.

Originally Posted by Kath

Well we apparently know the lynch choices for toDay then! So I'll go look at their posts and then vote.

Agan - suggests the person stunned reveals. Interesting idea, it would narrow down possibilities ... does it end up revealing Gifteds though and thus helping the wolves more? Basically saying just don't forget TBW in case it comes back to bite you later. Takes against Glirdan as well. Her and wilwa as buddies sounds unlikely given that they both suspect him. Suspects Nog for twisting her words or at least continuing to misunderstand them. Says 'trust me' waaaay too much.

Wilwa - saw the downsides of having the stunned person reveal. Says focusing on TBW distracts from the more immediate danger of wolves and cobblers. Seems to have pretty clear and thought through reasons against Agan's revealing plan. I thought she was looking pretty good but then she takes against Glirdan for no reason I can particularly see.

Glirdan - says focus on the wolves and cobblers and let the less obviously dangerous Gifted's sort themselves out. Makes sense to me though in these early Days we're as likely to get one of them as we are anything else! Adapts Agan's TBW outing plan to work for cobblers.

Right, well. To be honest none of them seem desperately suspicious! I'd be more tempted to go for wilwa because to be honest I can't see the reasoning behind Glirdan being suspicious.++WILWA

(3)

I didn't understand how Kath could say Wilwa had no reasoning for suspecting Glirdan. Wilwa's reasoning for her vote looked better than Kath's at any rate.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Let me just say Form's vote was crap. Lynch one of the players who've made most sense toDay, really? At best, it was uninFormed.

I see no urgent reason to lynch Nog or Volo yet, I'm torn about Agan but I think I like her response to suspicion and would like to keep her around, and I'm having second thoughts about Lottie thanks to wilwa (plus she's not around to explain herself). So falling back on my second-best option
++Glirdan

(3)

Doesn't look bad to me.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I also have a tendency to be wary of anyone in this game who says "trust me".



Well, she did somewhat explain it, I think. And he also voted her for what he said was no reason at all.

Ok. Fine.

For lack of other options:

++Glirdan

I can't bring myself to vote Volo toDay, and Glirdan has the random vote for Wilwa and something of a nervy edge to his posts.

(4)

Originally Posted by Aganzir

++Glirdan

I find him suspicious enough, and I'd rather not die myself.

Self-preservation is at least understandable. (5)

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

I can't fault the suspicion on Volo, since I'd already thought him shifty. I'm not sure about the "slip", but it did look strange. (1)

Originally Posted by Loslote

++Agan

As I said, more to try and keep a Glirdy-lynch from happening than trying to lynch Agan herself. Sorry, Agan.

(4)

I don't remember just now why Lottie didn't want Glirdan lynched.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

++ Aganzir

At least Nog's was certainly not a surprise. Consistent. (5)

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

++Glirdan

More evidence, as opposed to a 'feeling' with Agan.

(6)

Nerwen did not vote.

x/d with Lottie and Shasta

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Eomer said nothing of worth all yesterDay and gave no real reasons for his vote - look at the post you quoted yourself. Eomer voted Agan for talking a lot. Nogrod, on the other hand, had reasons that he talked about at length.

I'd think that to a wolf's eyes someone voting for one of their own with little reason behind it would be a more inviting Seer prospect than one who puts effort into making a case, at least on Day 1.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

My question to you, Inzil, is why you seem so intent on defending Nogrod? I was only following an assumption, yet you seem to be donning your armor for battle.

I'm not "defending Nogrod". I'm disagreeing that he was necessarily the likely kill choice. Why are you unwilling to explore other options?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Eomer said nothing of worth all yesterDay and gave no real reasons for his vote - look at the post you quoted yourself. Eomer voted Agan for talking a lot. Nogrod, on the other hand, had reasons that he talked about at length.

My treasure, Nog was very specific about Agan being a cobbler (which, incidentally wouldn't greatly surprise me). So, if anything, this hypothetical attack on a Nogwight would point away from Agan as a wolf, wouldn't it?

Here's a general observation: I said it didn't surprise me that the BW was the hot topic on Day One. However, it's also true that when there's a werebear in the village, the folk most eager to discuss it tend to be the cobbler, the wolves and, oddly enough, quite often the bear as well. I bet Mr Goatleaf wasn't the only baddie in the thik of it yesterDay.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I don't remember just now why Lottie didn't want Glirdan lynched.

I didn't think he was a wolf. He did not strike me as acting particularly like the Glirdwolf I've played with before, so I didn't suspect him. I had a worse feeling about Agan than Glirdy.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

My treasure, Nog was very specific about Agan being a cobbler (which, incidentally wouldn't greatly surprise me). So, if anything, this hypothetical attack on a Nogwight would point away from Agan as a wolf, wouldn't it?

I would think so. With this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I actually write this like ten minutes before the DL just to able to send it in time. Some of it has been said already and some might be redundant by now. But whatever.

Greenie is over-rationalising her vote. She looks suspicious.

I'm also worried about wilwa. She voted for Glirdy too easily.

Pitch is nicely saving wilwa (I've had a bad feeling about him all the Day - he's reasonable, but then again like a cheetah looking for a victim to jump upon).

Those two being wolves and not knowing of the cobbler would just make sense.

Aganzir is a baddie. Which type? A cobbler, of course.

Nog not only said he thought Agan was a Cobbler, he singled out Wilwa and Pitch as potential wolves. And he voted for Agan anyway.

And there's this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Anyway. It's getting late and I'm done with this discussion. I need to take a look back on others and will not be derailed by cobblerish second questions. And if you're innocent Agan, please help us finding suspicious behaviour.

"If you're innocent Agan"- does that look like "specificity", as outlined by Shasta here?

As an interesting aside, this would also point at one or more of Greenie, Pitch, Wilwa, and Agan as wolves. Agan is probably the most likely of this bunch, considering that Nog was most specific about her. How likely it is that an Aganwolf would have gone after Nog (expecting that Nog-Seer would die, of course) knowing that his death would point to her is debatable, however.

All this is supposed to be evidence on why Nog could have been the wolves' target. I don't see it, and I don't understand why Shasta's pushing this so.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Here's a general observation: I said it didn't surprise me that the BW was the hot topic on Day One. However, it's also true that when there's a werebear in the village, the folk most eager to discuss it tend to be the cobbler, the wolves and, oddly enough, quite often the bear as well. I bet Mr Goatleaf wasn't the only baddie in the thik of it yesterDay.

Possibly. It's worth looking into.

x/d with Lottie

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I would think so. With this:



Nog not only said he thought Agan was a Cobbler, he singled out Wilwa and Pitch as potential wolves. And he voted for Agan anyway.

And there's this:



"If you're innocent Agan"- does that look like "specificity", as outlined by Shasta here?



All this is supposed to be evidence on why Nog could have been the wolves' target. I don't see it, and I don't understand why Shasta's pushing this so.



Possibly. It's worth looking into.

x/d with Lottie

1. Nog did not say he "thought" Agan was a cobbler, he said she was one, which struck me as oddly sure and specific, yes. And he said that she was a cobbler after that quote you posted, Inzil.

And as I said once, I'm merely following an assumption - that the wolves thought Nog was the Seer and went after him, exposing a Nog-wight. Assumptions are, obviously, not something to base a case on, so I believe the one tying up discussion and making things into what they aren't is you, Inzil.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

My treasure, Nog was very specific about Agan being a cobbler (which, incidentally wouldn't greatly surprise me). So, if anything, this hypothetical attack on a Nogwight would point away from Agan as a wolf, wouldn't it?

Here's a general observation: I said it didn't surprise me that the BW was the hot topic on Day One. However, it's also true that when there's a werebear in the village, the folk most eager to discuss it tend to be the cobbler, the wolves and, oddly enough, quite often the bear as well. I bet Mr Goatleaf wasn't the only baddie in the thik of it yesterDay.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta.

My light, I see your point - if Agan is a wolf, she'd know that Nog couldn't be the Seer. However, the theory I was following was that the wolves attacked Nog because he was sure that Agan was a cobbler. The point I made about Agan (and Pitch and Greenie and Wilwa) was just an aside that popped into my head as I perused Nog's post. I think my theory still stands, though, doesn't it?

Anyway, I should move on to Assumption 2 - that the wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace (not an uncommon first night kill for wolves in this day and age). I'll look in on that once I've had a shower, but for a start, the names that come to mind off the top of my head are Eomer, Sally, Kath, and Form.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Tired!Sally is tired, and needs to sleep so she doesn't continue to have a cold, plus she has to not be all dead and stuff at work. And she doesn't want to waste her 4000th post telling y'all this. She promises she'll be around this weekend.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

My light, I see your point - if Agan is a wolf, she'd know that Nog couldn't be the Seer. However, the theory I was following was that the wolves attacked Nog because he was sure that Agan was a cobbler. The point I made about Agan (and Pitch and Greenie and Wilwa) was just an aside that popped into my head as I perused Nog's post. I think my theory still stands, though, doesn't it?

When you put it like that, it makes sense.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Anyway, I should move on to Assumption 2 - that the wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace (not an uncommon first night kill for wolves in this day and age). I'll look in on that once I've had a shower, but for a start, the names that come to mind off the top of my head are Eomer, Sally, Kath, and Form.

Would Eomer really count as a no-trace kill, though?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

When you put it like that, it makes sense.


Would Eomer really count as a no-trace kill, though?

As far as I can tell, Eomer didn't say anything of substance (like I said earlier). He voted Agan for talking a lot. He's probably on the lower side of 'likely', regarding that list, but I'd still put him there, myself.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

However, the theory I was following was that the wolves attacked Nog because he was sure that Agan was a cobbler.

This makes a lot more sense than what I thought you meant.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Would Eomer really count as a no-trace kill, though?

He hasn't really said much, plus he could well be a potential Seer candidate. I think he's a likely candidate - but, like I said earlier, I'd suggest looking for wolves toDay and letting TB hunt TBW, given the suggestions we come up with.

EDIT: xed with Shasta and fixed coding

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lottie

He hasn't really said much, plus he could well be a potential Seer candidate. I think he's a likely candidate - but, like I said earlier, I'd suggest looking for wolves toDay and letting TB hunt TBW, given the suggestions we come up with.

How are we supposed to come up with suggestions for Tom Bombadil if we shouldn't look for the Barrow-Wight? You're amusing, Little Lottie.

But really, knowing that the wolves attacked the Wight Night 1 is actually a pretty big piece of information for us. I don't see why we shouldn't pursue it.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

How are we supposed to come up with suggestions for Tom Bombadil if we shouldn't look for the Barrow-Wight? You're amusing, Little Lottie.

But really, knowing that the wolves attacked the Wight Night 1 is actually a pretty big piece of information for us. I don't see why we shouldn't pursue it.

I didn't mean we shouldn't pursue it, I meant we shouldn't make that the focus of our lynch. It is a huge bit of information, and we shouldn't ignore it, but TBW can't actually kill any of us, so I think we should try to lynch a wolf, not TBW. But thanks for thinking I'm amusing.

[The Elf-warrior]

Lottie, you seem OK to me.

I'm voting
++Eomer

Eomer's behavior strikes me as cobblerish, or he could be a wolf or a wight. Or he could be innocent. I don't know, but I'd bet he's bad. I'm gonna flip flop some more and say that Volo seems OK to me after further consideration. I think he's just a little off his game.

I probably won't post any more toDay. I have to work past the deadline and I'd better get some sleep. Bye.

[Nerwen]

Thoughts on Nogrod.
It's reasonable that Nogrod is going to defend himself against my king's little theory about him being the BW. Odd, though, that the part of #133 he attacks is not the confusing bit where Shasta seems to be arguing that "Seer" Nog saying Agan was a cobbler would somehow point to her as a wolf, but rather this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now please, what kind of a "seer" would that make me? If there is even one reasonable wolf in the pack, they'd know better than to think me the seer. What comes to the assumption you're making through implication - that I'm the BW who tried to pose as the seer, just think of this: what would the real seer do if she noticed someone posing as the seer? What do you think? "Why bother checking that guy out who impersonates me..." Really? So whoever the BW is s/he would do really bad trying to look like a seer as there is a real one to check that out - and to feel very uncomfortable with it.

That's just plain weird, coming from a veteran like Nogrod, who knows perfectly well that there's a long history of other roles impersonating the Seer. He's arguing for the improbability of something that happens all the time. (Yes, I know Shasta has already drawn attention to this, but really, I think it needs more.)

EDIT:X'd with Elf-warrior.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting theory on Nogrod. Probably worth checking out; all this means is that we let Tom go after him tonight and see what happens. Until then, ignore Nogrod. Agreed?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shasta

As far as I can tell, Eomer didn't say anything of substance (like I said earlier). He voted Agan for talking a lot. He's probably on the lower side of 'likely', regarding that list, but I'd still put him there, myself

Originally Posted by Lottie

He hasn't really said much, plus he could well be a potential Seer candidate

Which would point to Aganwolf, of course. If she's not a wolf, though, I'm not so sure the wolves would pick Eomer, as he looks quite cobblerish. As does Agan, the person potentially framed by his death. (Unless he supposedly dreamed Agan as a cobbler, cf Shasta's Nogwight theory.)

EDIT:X'd with Eomer; added comment.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

And as I said once, I'm merely following an assumption - that the wolves thought Nog was the Seer and went after him, exposing a Nog-wight. Assumptions are, obviously, not something to base a case on, so I believe the one tying up discussion and making things into what they aren't is you, Inzil.

It isn't impossible that you're right. What I don't understand is why you seemingly homed in on Nog without apparently looking at anyone else as a potential wolf-target. I looked as though you weren't willing to consider any other possibility.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Anyway, I should move on to Assumption 2 - that the wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace (not an uncommon first night kill for wolves in this day and age). I'll look in on that once I've had a shower, but for a start, the names that come to mind off the top of my head are Eomer, Sally, Kath, and Form.

So, which of your Assumptions do you think more likely? That the wolves went after Nog thinking he might be the Seer, or that they wanted a trailless kill?

[A Little Green]

Here for a minute before dashing off to a meeting - back for another while later on. In other words, I'm really busy today but will do what I can.

Originally Posted by Inzil, about Form's vote

My sole observation is that I'd wonder why "entertaining" trumps "useful" when considering a lynch.

My thoughts exactly. Actually, I'd love good healthy explanations from both Eomer and Form concerning their votes. Generally I'm disinclined to trust people who don't seem to put an effort into their lynch vote, since for an innocent it is the only way of eventually winning the game. For a wolf it's not that crucial - at least not unless their own or their fellow's life is at stake. (And no, "It was Day 1" does not count as an answer.)

Originally Posted by Lottie

I'd suggest looking for wolves toDay and letting TB hunt TBW, given the suggestions we come up with.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I didn't mean we shouldn't pursue it, I meant we shouldn't make that the focus of our lynch. It is a huge bit of information, and we shouldn't ignore it, but TBW can't actually kill any of us, so I think we should try to lynch a wolf, not TBW.

We certainly shouldn't make the BW our focus, but discussing who the wolves might have pursued who could also be the BW can help us to information about the wolves, and that is why it is such a big question.

Other than that, I'm quite at a loss with why Nog calling Agan a cobbler makes it probable Aganwolf and her pack would think him the Seer who had dreamed her.

[Volo]

Several comments yesterDay were based on misunderstandings, I hadn't expressed myself clearly enough. I'll open up on this later if I have the chance.

When going Day1 through in my head yesterday, I had a feeling that Nogrod was a Wolf. He seems to be more stressed and high strung in this game than in the games I played with him before. This might be due to completely unrelated reasons, but it feels as if he doesn't have a chance to relax from the game, i.e. he's also playing actively during the Nights. His first post toDay doesn't argue against this feeling. I would have thought him to post more than one things before going to sleep were he not active before the post as well.
Then again, he has not tried to hide his tenseness. A Wolf Nog I'd believe would choose his words better and read others' comments more closely, instead of being so aggressive.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What I think of Volo? Well, he might be a total nut-head baddie trying to go with the "then going flow" - or then he is an ordo who thought I was the seer.

Hard to say, which one.

Seriously...

I doubt he is the BW. Even though, like Shasta pointed out - with partly faulty arguments, in my opinion - the Wolves might have thought Nog the Seer, on Night2 it is more likely for Wolves to pick out a target that leaves fewer traces. And there are plenty of such players around here now. Another argument against trying to kill Nog on Night2 is that it can be regarded unsporty. It's not a very strong argument, but it has been used.


I still find Aganzir suspicious. I don't know how much she has been talking about Cobblers in the recent games, but she seemed to react so happily to the notion that people should discuss Cobblers that it seemed, she was happy about it, because it would mean people would talk about her. And knowing Agan, that would certainly entertain her.
Also, what Nog mentioned yesterDay and which I mainly based my vote upon, is that she did put out an unlikely strategy proposition which would require a lot of discussion, both whether to accept the strategy, and after it has been accepted. I'm refering to the open vote for who should TB go after next Night. It would move away attention from the Dayly lynch-vote, which is, much more important. Aganzir, I see as too sensible to put up such a strategy unless doing so on purpose. And she definitely is bold enough to actively try moving the conversation into a foggy direction.


Shasta seems quite Innocent in his posts. The way he writes feels more genuine than when he was a Wolf. It may be due to the fact that he hasn't had the time to inspect the thread and formulate answers, but in any case, it feels less calculative than what he wrote as a Wolf.

[Volo]

I'll try clearing up the misunderstandings briefly.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Agreed that who isn't with us is against us, but what exactly do two you mean with "the BW can even be really useful later on" (to whom?) and "whether she plays for us or for the wolves"? The BW's stunnings may happen to work in favour of one party now or the other next, but xe wins if xe's the sole survivor, so xe wants all of us dead in the long run.

When I wrote that I hadn't realized exactly what you mention here, I thought that the BW wins if either the Innocents or the Wolves win and the BW is still alive. So from the post you are refering to, I have changed my mind, and while the BW can be useful by stunning the last Wolf, it would probably be unintentional.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

How will the BW have these "educated hunches"? Xe will know who xe decided to stun, but not necessarily whether xe hit a wolf or a Gifted. How could xe know if xe hit the Seer and caused the loss of a dream, or caused Ferny to be unable to spy for the Night? The only concrete information the BW could get from xer stunning actions is if two wolves are gone already and there isn't a kill during a Night, meaning xe nailed the remaining wolf.

This is a game where certain knowledge is rare. Post-mortem role revelations and the dreams of a dead Seer are of such quality, but not much else. However players are making accusations based on little hunches, glimpses and clues, which are not definite. The BW also plays by these rules, being quite similar to an Ordo. However, xe can stun, which affects xer way of looking at players' roles. The knowledge of someone being stunned will certainly affect the way the BW looks upon xer victim next Day and might notice things others wouldn't necessarily notice. By "mildly eductated hunches" I meant a wider perspective than that of an ordo's.
Related to this was my comment of not angering the BW, which has also been understood in a way I didn't mean it. Based on basic WW psychology I see the following scenario very likely: The BW is suspected for one reason or the other and is very likely or certainly going to be lynched. Xer reaction to this is, probably, wanting revenge to those who caused xer demise, who, in the case of a lynch, are the Innocents (the lynch being the Innocents' way of killing). Xe can revenge by making the game more favourable to the enemies of xer enemies, the Wolves. And this is done by the BW telling on the game thread who xe thinks are the Gifteds - something a Cobbler would do in the similar situation. All in all this is a minor point explained in a long way and this discussion should perhaps be forgotten in favour of using up time for the real game, instead of meta.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Quite a lot of people talking about 'might' with nothing to back them up. And what's this about 'we'? As far as I know, innocents don't kill anything "quietly during the Night".

What I meant by the Innocents killing a Cobbler quietly during the Night was TB ('we') using his power during the Night to get rid of the BW, who is not unlike a Cobbler, which is an advantage to the Innocents. Refer to aforementioned reasons.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I'm gonna go with
++Volo.
I think Shasta found a freudian slip. I haven't read any farther than Nogrod's post after Shasta.

I assume you refer to the part I quoted. Well, I hope this post clarified enough.